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You are here: Home / Elections / Election 2016 / North Carolina update

North Carolina update

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Just another update from North Carolina’s early voting from INSIGHT US:

Absentee ballots returned in North Carolina
Absentee ballots returned in North Carolina

Democratic and non-affiliated voters are returning their ballots at a rate above 2012. Registered Republicans are not returning their ballots. Even if every incremental independent vote is actually a disgusted Republican vote, the lean GOP vote share for this phase is running 45% behind.

both Dems and independents have posted modest upticks relative to 2012 (107% and 106%, respectively), Republicans are voting at just 55% of their 2012 numbers. And this ‘Trump slump’ fully accounts for the overall decline in ABM voting so far….

Other North Carolina poll-watchers, including HuffPo, CNN, and the New York Times, have already reported that applications for ABM ballots by Republicans are down substantially this year in North Carolina (by 27%, according to the Times). As we show here, Tar Heel state Republicans are lagging even worse in terms of actually voting their ballots.

And yes, it is not all roses. Early voting in Iowa is crashing harder for Dems than it is for Republicans but 15 is greater than 6.

Time to finish the job.

Reader Interactions

184Comments

  4. 4.

    Kay

    Why is this not a bigger deal?

    Four women who competed in the 1997 Miss Teen USA beauty pageant said Donald Trump walked into the dressing room while contestants — some as young as 15 — were changing.
    “I remember putting on my dress really quick because I was like, ‘Oh my god, there’s a man in here,’” said Mariah Billado, the former Miss Vermont Teen USA.
    Trump, she recalled, said something like, “Don’t worry, ladies, I’ve seen it all before.”
    Three other women, who asked to remain anonymous for fear of getting engulfed in a media firestorm, also remembered Trump entering the dressing room while girls were changing. Two of them said the girls rushed to cover their bodies, with one calling it “shocking” and “creepy.” The third said she was clothed and introduced herself to Trump.

    He’s on record as bragging about busting into dressing rooms in adult pageants “because he owns the pageant”, which is horrible enough, but these were teenagers. 15 years old.

  5. 5.

    Yossarian

    Between McCrory, the insane GOP state leg, and now Trump, I can’t think of a place where Dems will be MORE motivated to turn out than North Carolina. My parents live down there, and they’ve been seething since about 2010 and getting more pissed off as the Repubs go crazier. This election, for a lot of North Carolinians, is the chance to repudiate people who have literally embarrassed their state on the national stage.

  6. 6.

    Richard Mayhew

    @Patricia Kayden: Demographic mixture — a lot of whites and a higher than typical percentage who don’t have a college degree. There are very few non-white voters to counter the high number of white high school graduates which as a group have gone hard Trump.

  8. 8.

    sherparick

    Interesting what has happened in Iowa the last four years. Bill and Hillary have never gone over well in Iowa as can be seen in their performances in the Iowa Caucuses in 1992 and 2008 and 2016. Also, a state where the Democratic Party was very much a “Farmer-Labor” Party, and the decline of Unions has hurt. Also, a state where NAFTA and WTO have both been responsible for significant factory job loss, so that hurts Hillary given Trump’s anti-trade (if just BS) rhetoric. Rise of Evangelical Protestants as replacement for traditional clubs, Grange, and unions has bolstered Know-Nothings like Trump, Ernst, and Grassley.

  9. 9.

    Baud

    @Kay:

    I’m waiting for the next Trump scandal. Maybe it’ll involve underage girls, or maybe Russia. When is the next debate?

  10. 10.

    OzarkHillbilly

    @sherparick:

    Also, a state where NAFTA and WTO have both been responsible for significant factory job loss,

    And significant increases in corn and soybean sales. Not that anyone there would give credit for that.

  11. 11.

    bystander

    @Kay: This is another example of the blind eye the media have cast on Trump. Imagine if Hillary was said to have routinely been walking into boys’ lockerrooms and bragging about it.

  13. 13.

    AnderJ

    @Kay: Make it a bigger deal. Contact the media and in particular the WaPo and point them to the tapes of the relevant Howard Stern show. Though In fairness Clinton’s campaign is likely already doing this…

  14. 14.

    Betsy

    Just a note of little consequence — these are not “Independent” voters in North Carolina, only “Unaffiliated.”

    There is an Independent party. The Board of Elections here lists voters not associated with a party as “Unaffiliated.” To be accurate, this is how they should be referred to.

    eta: richard got it right, and I ‘m asuming the graph is from the source.

  15. 15.

    hueyplong

    Can’t wait to vote on Oct. 20. I’ll have difficulty holding back an audible “this one is for you, m-f” as I vote against Trump, Burr, McCrory, Virginia Foxx, and others unknown to you but pretty disgusting in their own right. This state is a veritable political den of rats.

  16. 16.

    Kay

    @Baud:

    I don’t know, but doesn’t there seem to be two different standards of proof operating here? Any allegation against Clinton is breathlessly reported but to mention Trump they need tape with Trump’s own words or none of them touch it.

    In this case they HAVE Trump’s words- he bragged about busting into dressing rooms. On tape. His words.

    They’re afraid of him. I’d like to know why. I don’t buy the lawsuit theory. It’s ass-covering bullshit. Even if it’s true (it’s not) what are they telling us? They can’t report on a Presidential candidate because they’re afraid of being sued? They’re useless then. They should take the next month off.

    Does he threaten cable personalities with what he knows about them? He did for the Morning Joe anchors, and they’re clearly afraid of him. What gives with this? Will it remain a mystery?

  19. 19.

    JPL

    I thought that Ohio was Trump country
    CLEVELAND, Ohio — Democrat Hillary Clinton has a 9-point lead over Republican Donald Trump in Ohio following the news of Trump’s vulgar talk about women and after the second debate between the candidates, according to a statewide poll released today by Baldwin Wallace University in Berea.
    Clinton leads Trump, 48 percent to 38 percent, with 14 percent unsure, in a direct match-up, the poll found. When the two minority party candidates are added to the mix – as they are on state ballots — Clinton leads by 9 percent, 43 percent to 34 percent.
    link

  20. 20.

    rikyrah

    They have had a GOP that has spent the last 4 years trying to take away their right to vote. Yes, I could see how folks would be motivated.

  22. 22.

    Betsy

    My work involves traveling to a lot of small, rural N.C. towns and working with citizen boards that tend to be nearly all white. These people have been really disgusted with our state-level Republican politicians. Anecdata — but these are rural white folks. Now, volunteer board members obviously tend to be more civically involved than most people, rendering them more likely to have a favorable view of government and societal action, but these are not naturally liberal people. So for them to express anti-McCrory, anti-Tillis, (etc.) views is something.

    A lot of people in small towns are also really ticked off about the war on local government that Republicans have waged since 2013 when they got their big majorities in the legislature. They see how it’s affecting their economies and local quality of life and the ability of their towns to get things done.

  23. 23.

    Eunicecycle

    @JPL: Thank God! I really didn’t want to move. I like living in Ohio! Just saw a Facebook rant from a friend, though, that will make me forever wonder about him. According to him, there won’t be any Thanksgiving or Christmas next year due to the hoards of “illiegals” that will be coming over the borders, etc. Not quite sure what that has to do with cancelling holidays, but okay.

  25. 25.

    sunhaws

    @craigie:

    Usually in election season in Iowa, my husband and I get several absentee ballot request forms in the mail each–sent by the Democratic Party or a particular candidate. This year, only I’ve received one single form in the mail. Just been odd, and different from past election cycles.

  26. 26.

    cokane

    Iowas might be lost even in a Clinton blowout. Weird what’s happened there. Would make for a great election oddity news story for sure. Trump is losing ground almost everywhere else compared to Romney.

  27. 27.

    Botsplainer

    @Kay:

    No mystery – after Watergate, conservatives bored in on the media big time. The media did the unforgivable-they went after the icons of conservative power from McCarthy forward, and upended the hitherto unassailable symbols of white power and prestige, culminating in bringing down the Presidency. I remember my RWNJ mother and grandparents whiny about how the news never reflected the good things, and all that ref working impacts us today.

  31. 31.

    gene108

    @Betsy:

    IIRC, part of the reason NC voters rewarded Reps is because Dems got embroiled in various corruption scandals and voters got fed up with what was perceived as Dems looking out for their good old boys network first and voters second. They were not voting for a right-wing revolution.

  32. 32.

    Iowa Old Lady

    Apparently there’s a lot of Koch money in Iowa. It helps elect Joni Ernst, and maybe it’s making a difference this year. I don’t know. The state is white and old. Maybe it comes down to that.

  33. 33.

    sherparick

    @cokane: I had earlier posted on Iowa about ongoing secular changes in the state that might be making it majority wingnut, but then it occurred to me that a big difference between 2012 and 2014-16 is that 2012 was the last year of the Chinese commodity boom, including the price of Corn and Soybeans, Iowa’s principal cash crops. I checked out FRED chart on the global price of corn, and yep, the price cratered from 2013 through the present.. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PMAIZMTUSDM. I think that is why Iowa is receptive to Trump’s siren call.

    So Iowa’s economy is locally suffering due to the commodity price dip and apparently the Presidential Party gets the blame for price of corn cratering due to Chinese economic mismanagement. That’s baseball as they say (Go Cubs, Go.).

  34. 34.

    Kay

    @Comrade Scrutinizer:

    Thanks. I meant to do posts after Labor Day on voting rights mostly, but I haven’t gotten around to it. I was horrified and dispirited when Trump was drawing even so I wasted a month worrying about that.

  35. 35.

    JMG

    @Kay: It’s no mystery. 1. Cable news is operated by massive media conglomerates that have a vested interest in as little government regulation of their oligopoly as possible, and whose bosses are Republicans by wallet and natural inclination. 2. Cable news audiences are both incredibly white and incredibly old (median age around 65-66), a Republican demo. TV being a business where everyone is easily replaceable, its news operations never wish to offend audiences or bosses.

  36. 36.

    MomSense

    @Kay:

    I would not trust him to babysit my kids and I’m sure there are other parents who feel the same way.

  37. 37.

    OzarkHillbilly

    Please Marybeth Glenn, tell us how you really feel:

    So let me get this straight: I, a conservative female, have spent years defending the Republican Party against claims of sexism. 1/

    When I saw Republican men getting attacked I stood up for them. I came to their defense. I fought on their behalf. 2/

    I fought on behalf of a movement I believed in. I fought on behalf of my principles while other women told me I hated my own sex. 3/

    Not only charges of sexism, but I defended @marcorubio during Go8, I fought in my state to stop the @ScottWalker recall, etc…

    Now some Trojan horse nationalist sexual predator invades the @GOP, eating it alive, and you cowards sit this one out? 5/

    He treats women like dogs, and you go against everything I – and other female conservatives – said you were & back down like cowards. 6/

    Get this straight: We don’t need you to stand up for us, YOU needed to stand up for us for YOU. For YOUR dignity. For YOUR reputation. 7/

    Jeff Sessions says that he wouldn’t “characterize” Trump’s unauthorized groping of women as “assault.” Are you kidding me?! 8/

    Others try to rebuke his comments, yet STILL choose to vote for a sexual predator – because let’s be honest, that’s what he is. 9/

    “What he said is wrong, and the way he treats women is wrong, but it’s not wrong enough for me to not vote for him.” Thanks, cowards. 10/

    Various men in the movement are writing it off as normal, confirming every stereotype the left has thrown at them. So I’m done. 11/

    I’m sooo done. If you can’t stand up for women & unendorse this piece of human garbage, you deserve every charge of sexism thrown at you. 12

    I’m just one woman, you won’t even notice my lack of presence at rallies, fair booths, etc., You won’t really care that I’m offended 13/

    by your silence, and your inability to take a stand. But one by one you’ll watch more women like me go, & you’ll watch men of 14/

    ACTUAL character follow us out the door. And what you’ll be left with are the corrupt masses that foam at the mouth every time you step 15/

    Outside the lines. Men who truly see women as lesser beings, & women without self-respect. & your “guiding faith” & “principles” will be 16/

    Attached to them as well. And when it’s all said and done, all you’ll have left is the party The Left always accused you of being. Scum. 17/

    CC: @SpeakerRyan @tedcruz @marcorubio @SpeakerRyan @Reince And every other tool refusing to unendorse this monster. 17/X

    Reality is a beach Marybeth, reality is a beach.

  38. 38.

    Kay

    I love that we were all ordered to respect Kellyanne Conway because she’s a GOP pollster that media people “know”.

    She’s an idiot hack. She lies about poll numbers constantly. If this was the top tier in GOP politics no wonder they’re collapsing. She’s not even interesting or engaging as a public face of a campaign. She’s testy and exhausted and defensive. This is what she is and has always been. She didn’t turn into an idiot hack over 20 days.

  39. 39.

    gene108

    @Kay:

    Donald’s lived the adolescent fantasy of walking through a girl’s changing room. I bet there are a bunch of guys quietly nodding in approval and a bit of envy. And some are probably in the media.

  41. 41.

    The Fat Kate Middleton

    @sunhaws: This is our household’s experience exactly here in one of Iowa’s Democratic bastions. Furthermore, we did return the one absentee ballot request form we each received, and have yet to receive out ballots. I think it’s past time to make some telephone calls.

  44. 44.

    WereBear

    @Kay: Does he threaten cable personalities with what he knows about them? He did for the Morning Joe anchors, and they’re clearly afraid of him.

    He’s got something on Morning Joe & Mika?

    And yanno, he doesn’t have to blackmail the correspondents. He just needs to blackmail their bosses; which are fewer in number, and rather likely to indulge in Trump’s own sick vices.

    Remember, Ailes harassed women into sleeping with him… and his “friends.”

  49. 49.

    Kay

    I take it back. The WAPo is covering the Trump busting into dressing rooms to leer at contestants story.

    “before the locker room, there was the dressing room” is clever.

    Miss Arizona has bravely come forward, even though his horrid fans are likely to do one of their mob hate actions.

  50. 50.

    TS

    @Kay:

    He did for the Morning Joe anchors, and they’re clearly afraid of him. What gives with this?

    I had completely forgotten this – the fact that Joke and Mica are both attacking Hillary non stop while defending Trump makes much more sense. Every other pundit on MSNBC is 100% trashing Trump.

  53. 53.

    nonynony

    @Kay:

    This is what she is and has always been. She didn’t turn into an idiot hack over 20 days.

    The difference is that in prior campaigns she had something she could work with. Wikipedia says she worked for Kemp, Gingrich, Quayle, Thompson, and Pence. Now all of those guys are pretty horrible, but all of them except for Gingrich and Pence also had good points about them (in that maybe they didn’t kick every puppy they saw, or take every piece of candy from every baby they encountered). And Gingrich and Pence are both seasoned politicians who know how to say one thing to their base and another thing to the press.

    A whole lot of campaign advisors get an outsized reputation for brilliance because they hitch themselves to people with genuine political talent and charisma and then take credit for their success among the Beltway journalists. The journalists tend to have a bias that they think the politicians are either stupid and charismatic or wonky and unlikable and so they credit campaign staff for “shaping them up” and making them electable.

    Now she’s got a real problem – a candidate who is so unsuitable for office she can’t take credit for his abilities. And she’s having to rely on her own actual talent. And the problem is she isn’t nearly as good as her press friends think she is.

  54. 54.

    nonynony

    @TS:

    Every other pundit on MSNBC is 100% trashing Trump.

    Could also be the bosses told Joe and Mika that they had to saddle up and take one for the team so that MSNBC could point to them and claim to be fairnbalanced since everyone else is down on Trump.

    Especially since Joe spent the entire GOP primary fluffing Trump. I don’t think his fluffing moved the needle towards Trump at all, but he deserves to be miserable for the part he played anyway. Hell he deserves to be miserable just because of who he is.

  55. 55.

    MomSense

    @Kay:

    I’m starting to sound like a tinfoil hat wearer but I do not find it plausible that the Russians have only hacked the DNC, Podesta, etc. If the hacking operating against Republicans and perhaps media figures and entities has not been made public, that doesn’t mean it hasn’t been successful in achieving the desired outcome. Eichenwald has been inundated with purported Greenwald, Assange, Wikileaks, and Bernie or bust trolls who have even been threatening his wife especially after the August Roger Stone tweets with information that wasn’t publicly released by the Russians/Wikileaks until October were found.

  56. 56.

    sunhaws

    @The Fat Kate Middleton:
    It’s weird, right? Was it intentional strategy not to push absentee ballots as they have in past elections or did somebody drop the ball? Hope you get your ballots tracked down soon. I voted at the county auditors office. You might be able to just walk in there if it works in your schedule, and still vote, even if you’ve requested absentee ballots?

  58. 58.

    TS

    @nonynony:

    Could also be the bosses told Joe and Mika that they had to saddle up and take one for the team

    I think it’s much more likely that Joe & Mica do not want Trump imploding on Fox about their divorces/relationship. Why would the bosses let everyone else turn on Trump?
    Joe was starting a swivel this am with his usual “Remember I said that last week” lie, but then Mica intervened and attacked Hillary’s event with Al Gore saying it was the biggest joke ever. At that stage I tuned out – no idea what she was talking about & no desire to find out.

  59. 59.

    amk

    Dray Clark @DrayClarkABC7

    Major protest outside Trump Tower with dozens of women including survivors of sexual assault who call Trump a predator.

    will the deadbeat dick hide behind his ersatz gold plated toilet?

  60. 60.

    Botsplainer

    @MomSense:

    Remember, Greenwald started off as an incompetent lawyer representing white supremacists “on higher principles” or some shit like that.

    And he wasn’t appointed – he volunteered.

  61. 61.

    MomSense

    @Botsplainer:

    Oh I do remember. I have a feeling that many of his defenders on this blog will finally come around and see him for what he is. Same with Snowden and Assange.

  63. 63.

    artem1s

    @Botsplainer:

    No mystery – after Watergate, conservatives bored in on the media big time. The media did the unforgivable-they went after the icons of conservative power from McCarthy forward,

    and the media got drunk on it’s own power and started up the washing machine of endless, breathless speculation, every minute of every day. It’s no wonder the average person can’t discern the difference between actual law breaking, like misuse of funds and tax dodges at the Trump Foundation, and actual charitable work done by the Clinton Foundation. The GOP tried desperately to break scandals during the Carter administration and the press was so distracted they doubled down when Clinton took office. Somehow a deranged lunatic fundamentalist in Waco who was raping children in his own community became a martyr of gun humpers everywhere. A parental custody case in Florida became infused with Red baiting histrionics. And a husband trying to make decisions about the health care of his terminally ill wife became a demon lie-iberul trying to murder his spouse because she was inconvenient. It’s no wonder Starr kept going despite coming up empty for 3 years. The GOP was fueling him and the media was giving him a mile high soap box to pontificate from. The media (looking at you Woodward) has much to answer for besides Donald Trump and the state of the GOP.

  64. 64.

    Comrade Scrutinizer

    @MomSense: Well, if the Russians are backing Trump, why would there be any hacking attacks against the Trump campaign or the RNC? One of the things that gives credence to the Russian hacker angle is that the attacks are asymmetrical.

  66. 66.

    bystander

    @WereBear: Joe and Meeka have long been rumored to be having an affair. I doubt that Trump knows more than anyone else, but some NBC insider may know more and has shared with Trump.

    @TS: As Andrea Mitchell points out to the unwashed masses, those in the know knew that Gore and Hillary vied for influence over Bill. There was much intrigue in the palace, and it would wrong for great “journalists” like Mitchell not to speculate as if facts were important. Also Mitchell is just rapt over Wikileaks, no matter any question of provenance or chain of custody. Everything the Russians are leaking is true and all of it points to the shadow of culpability and double dealing hovering over the Clintons.

  68. 68.

    Comrade Scrutinizer

    @nonynony: Conway is an apparatchik of the Mercers. She will hang on, spinning and lying, for as long as they continue to back Trump. When they are done, so is she.

  69. 69.

    nonynony

    @Comrade Scrutinizer:

    Well, if the Russians are backing Trump, why would there be any hacking attacks against the Trump campaign or the RNC?

    Blackmail material.

    One of the things that gives credence to the Russian hacker angle is that the attacks are asymmetrical.

    That the releases are asymmetrical. Hack them both, release the Democrats’ e-mails to the public, use the Republican ones as leverage. If you wanted to get Donald Trump into office a more subtle version of that that takes into account the American public’s actual behavior and not the weird strawman behavior that the Russians seem to think we have would be the way to go about it.

  70. 70.

    MomSense

    @Comrade Scrutinizer:

    Because information is very useful in manipulating people. I had a lot of teachers who were Soviet/Eastern European defectors. They were surveilled and the information about their families was used to try and control their behavior.

  71. 71.

    Botsplainer

    @MomSense:

    As everyone knows, the greatest tragedy is that the US government has cybersecurity professionals who have the equipment and institutional knowledge to determine that a foreign power is attempting to ratfuck an election..

    The internet should be free, man…

  72. 72.

    sherparick

    @OzarkHillbilly: See my other comment. In 2012, corn and soybean prices were near a peak, thanks to the Chinese commodity boom. With the Commodity bust starting in 2013, Iowa is feeling an economic chill. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PMAIZMTUSDM. Its a case of what have you done for me lately.

    However, perhaps the next month might see a small swing back to the Democrats as this summer has been unexpectedly great for Soybeans! http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2016/10/07/soybean-adjusted-u-s-export-growth/

  73. 73.

    TS

    @bystander: I’ve managed to forget Mrs Greenspan – never watch her show & mute her on any other show. Seems there are many GOPers just like Trump – hold a grudge forever.

  74. 74.

    TS

    @Comrade Scrutinizer:

    Conway is an apparatchik of the Mercers. She will hang on, spinning and lying, for as long as they continue to back Trump. When they are done, so is she.

    I’m remembering when Romney lost, there was talk that they staff all had their credit cards cancelled & were left at the party to find their own way home. I’m sure the same will happen to anyone still working for Trump at this time. I will also enjoy seeing the SS pack up and leave.

  75. 75.

    wuzzat

    You know that LA Times poll that’s been tracking the same group of people for the whole cycle and has been consistently +Trump? It’s tied now.

  76. 76.

    Botsplainer

    @nonynony:

    If you wanted to get Donald Trump into office a more subtle version of that that takes into account the American public’s actual behavior and not the weird strawman behavior that the Russians seem to think we have would be the way to go about it.

    Say what you will, Georgi Arbatov’s USA/Canada Institute back in the halcyon days of the USSR did far better analysis than Putin’s boys do now, despite there being some business and crime linkage currently.

  77. 77.

    Comrade Scrutinizer

    @nonynony: @MomSense: Sure. But the point is that if the Russians are behind this, and if Trump/RNC has been hacked, you won’t hear about it. And if they think they have Trump under control, they may not have to hack their way in.
    Whether the Russians have attacked both sides, or whether they have only attacked Clinton and the DNC is beside the point. There is mounting evidence of the latter, and that’s more than enough to require action. It doesn’t make it worse if both sides were targeted.

    Edited because of fucking autocorrect.

  79. 79.

    JPL

    Sorry if this has been mentioned before, but the Salt Lake Tribune endorsed Hillary..
    link

    It’s a fair endorsement and mentions her work with children. Here is a sample
    She recognizes the unfairness of those who lack access to health care and those at the short end of extreme economic inequality. She would make tax policy more equitable and work to help the poor climb out of their misery.

    She has stood up for religious freedom around the world, even in dealing with regimes such as China, where it was a risky position to take.

  80. 80.

    MomSense

    @Comrade Scrutinizer:

    I’m not saying it makes it worse. I am saying that it provides a plausible explanation for the behavior of some media entities, political organizations, and politicians.

    @Botsplainer:

    Yeah the FSB is not getting the same quality like in the old KGB days.

  81. 81.

    amk

    one hundred and eleventeeth endorsement. sltrib

    It is time to get serious.

    It has been amusing, to a degree, to watch the circus that was the Republican primary process struggle and fuss and finally produce such a disappointment to be its presidential nominee.

    ///

    She has shown that she is tough, yet able and willing to reach out to politicians to her left and her right in order to get things done.

    Her secret plan to reform health care in America during her husband’s administration fell incompetently apart. But she learned from that experience and, as a senator, worked across party lines to extend health insurance to millions of children.

    Clinton’s devotion to making the world a better place for the less fortunate, especially children, has been the core of her whole career. She sees the threats of terror abroad, gun violence at home and climate change globally and has plans to address all of that, and more.

    She recognizes the unfairness of those who lack access to health care and those at the short end of extreme economic inequality. She would make tax policy more equitable and work to help the poor climb out of their misery.

    She has stood up for religious freedom around the world, even in dealing with regimes such as China, where it was a risky position to take.

    The fact that she would be the first woman to hold that post is a bonus.

  82. 82.

    maurinsky

    @JPL:

    My daughter attends Baldwin Wallace University, and I saw the Love Trumps Hate sign in almost every dorm window when I was there this weekend. She registered to vote in Ohio as soon as she got there. Berea and the surrounding areas seem very Trump enthusiastic, but in the city and suburbs like Shaker Heights, it was all Hillary. Also, we went thrift shopping and I was asked twice while we were out if I was registered to vote, so there are people out there getting it done.

  83. 83.

    catclub

    @Yossarian:

    This election, for a lot of North Carolinians, is the chance to repudiate people who have literally embarrassed their state on the national stage.

    yeah, and then I remember NC elected Jesse Helms for decades.

  84. 84.

    Humanities Grad

    @JPL:

    No, Ohio’s not _exactly_ Trump country, though it’s far from safely Democratic, either.

    Out of all the battleground states, Ohio is the one that I judged most likely to go for Trump in November (unlike, say, Florida, which I’ve always believed was going to be a REALLY tough slog for any Republican this year, but especially Trump, because obviously…). Ohio isn’t all that diverse (sizable African-American population, but almost no Latino/Hispanic population), so the overall electorate here is friendlier to Trump than what you’d see elsewhere. Statewide elections tend to pit the state’s Democratic enclaves (Cleveland/Columbus/Toledo, though NOT really Cincinnati, which is quite Republican for a city of its size), which are pretty big, against the rural outstate vote.

    Our state legislature is gerrymandered all to hell, and Republicans have controlled the Statehouse and (usually) the Governor’s office for as long as I’ve lived here. But there are a LOT of Ohio Democrats. The Ohio Democratic Party is an incompetent mess, from what I can tell, but that doesn’t necessarily hurt in a presidential election year when the campaigns themselves can handle a lot of the GOTV effort. Ohio did go for Barack Obama in both 2008 and 2012, and my sense is that it will _probably_ go for Clinton this time around, but if there’s one battleground state that’s liable to backslide to the Republicans, Ohio would be the most likely candidate.

  85. 85.

    catclub

    @MomSense:

    Yeah the FSB is not getting the same quality like in the old KGB days.

    Not sure of your meaning. Is this to note that Vladimir Putin is a KGB alum?

  87. 87.

    catclub

    @Humanities Grad:

    unlike, say, Florida, which I’ve always believed was going to be a REALLY tough slog for any Republican this year, but especially Trump, because obviously

    It will be nice if Trump loses both of his home states.

  89. 89.

    nonynony

    @wuzzat:

    You know that LA Times poll that’s been tracking the same group of people for the whole cycle and has been consistently +Trump? It’s tied now.

    It was tied in early September too – at the same 44/44 tie. If it shifts back to Trump I won’t be surprised because they seem to be polling the same people consistently but using a “rolling window” of people polled from week to week and averaging in previous responses. Which means they may just be back in the part of the cycle where they’re polling people who really don’t like Trump.

    OTOH – if it starts showing a Clinton lead I might pop an early champagne cork.

  90. 90.

    Thoroughly Pizzled

    @sherparick: Iowa was one of just four states where Obama won the white vote in 2012 (Massachusetts, Connecticut and New Hampshire the others). I’m sad to see what it’s becoming.

  92. 92.

    p.a.

    Any info on electronic voting and Russian hack potential? BIG concerns back when the machine producers seemed to be pro-R. Now, with actual foreign hacking happening, I’ve read nothing.

    #AUSTRALIANBALLOT

  95. 95.

    nonynony

    @p.a.:

    Any info on electronic voting and Russian hack potential? BIG concerns back when the machine producers seemed to be pro-R. Now, with actual foreign hacking happening, I’ve read nothing.

    Fortunately for all of us nobody is stupid enough to connect a voting machine to the internet. The worries with the hacked voting machines involve a) in-person hacking to flip a whole bunch of votes and b) a lack of paper trail to allow county officials to set the vote to whatever the hell they want with no accountability.

    In neither case was anyone with any knowledge of the systems ever worried about someone remotely hacking the machines from more than a few feet away. For hackers not a part of the local government to be able to hack the machines they would need to show up at the polling stations. (Frankly I’ve always been far more concerned about the lack of an audit trail than I have with the lack of security on the machines – as long as nobody is dumb enough to allow voting over the internet we shouldn’t need to worry nearly as much about that).

    There is some worry about hacking the servers that the data is collected to – and that’s where the audit trail is supposed to kick in. If the votes look wrong for the county, the audit trail can be checked.

  97. 97.

    Botsplainer

    @p.a.:

    I’m thinking that if Putin’s ham handed clowns were REALLY smart, they’d deliver an overwhelming win to Hill, completely delegitimize the election, possibly throw it to the House.

  98. 98.

    NotMax

    @p.a.

    Poor potential, as individual electronic machines are not connected to the internet.

    Hackers would have to implant moles in states which use electronic voting (and in some cases, counties) to fiddle with software and do so without setting off any (no pun intended) red flags..

  100. 100.

    Kay

    Democrat Hillary Clinton has a 9-point lead over Republican Donald Trump in Ohio following the news of Trump’s vulgar talk about women and after the second debate between the candidates, according to a statewide poll released today by Baldwin Wallace University in Berea.

    9 points! That’s nuts in Ohio. It’s not Goopers coming over- it’s sad Goopers bowing out.

  103. 103.

    Comrade Scrutinizer

    @OzarkHillbilly: Well already know that the Russians want to influence the election, so whether both sides (!) or only one is being attacked doesn’t matter, except to raise largely irrelevant issues.

    I don’t think that Trump would be a good target for blackmail, no. I think that Trump is more suited to the useful idiot role. We’ve already seen that Trump digs in in response to pressure. Why but the cow when you can get the milk for free (great Trumpian analogy there)?

  104. 104.

    amk

    Donald Trump’s path to the presidency requires his brand of protectionism to drive union members to abandon Democrats, but new data provided to POLITICO shows that a huge part of organized labor – the service industry – isn’t following suit.

    According to a member poll conducted by the nearly 2 million-member Service Employees International Union last month and provided to POLITICO, Trump’s support among the group was 17 percent — 51 points behind Hillary Clinton, far lower than even Jeb Bush’s 24 percent in the spring, and behind both Mitt Romney and John McCain during their presidential bids.

    Armed with that data and the belief that union voters will make up roughly one-fifth of voters in key battlegrounds like Ohio and Pennsylvania, the SEIU has re-doubled its paid and volunteer efforts in the campaign’s home-stretch to churn up a base wave for Clinton, unleashing its largest ever independent expenditure campaign, partnering with other political organizations, such as Color of Change and NextGen Climate, and following through on its plan to spend more than half of its $70 million campaign season political budget on engagement with African American, Latino, and Asian and Pacific Islander communities.

  105. 105.

    germy

    @NotMax: I remember the nice old lady who “forgot” about a box of ballots and left them in a storage room or something, I think it was 2012?

  106. 106.

    tobie

    @Thoroughly Pizzled:

    I’m sad to see what it’s becoming.

    Yes, it is sad to see what Iowa’s become in the last four years. This means we’ll have to deal with another Senate term of that cretin Chuck Grassley, who doesn’t seem to know his ass from his elbow but has become adept at saying no, no, no and obstructing endlessly. Aren’t the Vilsacks from Iowa? In spite of the sage comments here about the drop in the price of soy and corn, the influx of Koch money, etc. it’s hard for me to fathom how Iowa could have become such a conservative state in such a short time.

  107. 107.

    Botsplainer, Cryptofascist Tool of the Oppressor Class

    @OzarkHillbilly:

    They’re defending people who are actively acting to overturn it in a violent fashion.

    That isn’t great.

  109. 109.

    Kay

    AMRON HALL (HOST): And Steve, just quickly this morning, Joe Scarborough believes that there is still a chance for Donald Trump, potentially, to pull this out. That you have, so many people still looking for the next WikiLeaks. Whether the supporters believe that these are doctored emails or not that this could still hover over Hillary Clinton. You laugh. In your mind, this is done.

    STEVE DEACE: I just kind of laughed at the mention of Joe Scarborough since he turned his show into a Trump Super PAC for six months and is one of the reasons we’re in this position. No he doesn’t have a chance and my counterpart here on the panel is correct. What is going on now is he’s had access to the Republican Party voter vault, Tamron, for 6 months, he’s got every right of center consumer in America’s, he’s got all their information. This is about starting the next “alt-right” platform in an attempt to essentially disintegrate Fox News, now that he’s got Roger Ailes and Steve Bannon on board. That’s what is coming next. This is not a strategy for victory, this is a strategy for marketing.

    Morning Joe was not considered part of the giant grift machine, but this election has really shown them to be.

    It’s worse than we thought. The rot spread into the “center”. Who the hell knows what these people are really up to? They’re probably lining up work on Trump TV.

  111. 111.

    germy

    @Kay:

    They’re probably lining up work on Trump TV.

    I’m guessing O’Reilly and Hannity will be the first to sign contracts.

  112. 112.

    MomSense

    @catclub:

    No, there was a British reporter whose wife writes Russian travel articles who lived in Moscow and covered Russia for the Guardian. He used to discuss this. Being recruited for the KGB was a big honor back in the day. They had their pick of people but now there are plenty of better opportunities for the best and brightest in finance, tech, etc. FSB isn’t getting their pick anymore. Then the old guys, who studied and understood our culture best and who I always suspected loved the west , are long retired. Putin was a young man when he was still an intelligence officer at the time the USSR collapsed. I don’t think he was all that accomplished and you have to figure that the agency is full of people like him.

    I had an East German teacher who had this crazy story about having drinks on the down low with a big KGB guy in Montreal when her company was on tour. She very clearly got the impression that there was no way in hell he would go home to Moscow. He loved, loved, loved everything about Canada and the US. He had long stopped believing what they were supposed to be fighting for and just wanted to do enough to be able to stay where he was. He probably wasn’t alone in feeling that way.

  113. 113.

    OzarkHillbilly

    @Comrade Scrutinizer: I was responding to this:

    Well, if the Russians are backing Trump, why would there be any hacking attacks against the Trump campaign or the RNC?

    We spy on Israel and they spy on us. We also spy on every other ally we have and if they aren’t spying on us they are idiots. One always always wants to know more than everyone else, friend or enemy. Especially what they know about you.

    As far as Trump being immune to blackmail, only a saint is immune to blackmail and I really don’t think Trump is a saint.

  115. 115.

    NotMax

    @germy

    Seems to happen somewhere every time.

    One would think that by now part of the regimen for state offices of election would be “Check all the closets.”

    Remember an election here in Hawaii when the guy in charge of the office, for reasons no one could fathom, announced they’d be running a full diagnostic on all their computers, which would take several hours to complete. At 9 p.m. on election night.

    This was well before any electronic voting machines. Even today, most voting here uses optical scan of fill in the oval paper ballots.

  116. 116.

    Gin & Tonic

    @MomSense:

    having drinks on the down low with a big KGB guy in Montreal when her company was on tour. She very clearly got the impression that there was no way in hell he would go home to Moscow.

    Shit, what rational human would want to leave Montreal for cold-war-era Moscow?

  117. 117.

    Fair Economist

    @sherparick: Economics also probably explains why we’re not doing as well in Nevada as expected. Most of the country has recovered at least partially from the housing crash but even 10 years after the slide many families in Nevada are still underwater on their bubble houses (often bought to make them rich, even).

  119. 119.

    Kay

    @germy:

    We need a master list of grifters. It gets complicated. David Brock is on it, for example. He is BOTH a grifter and a grifter-caller-outer.

    Joe Scarborough? Definite.

  120. 120.

    NotMax

    Not that I’d lift a finger to seek out his opining but Bill “If I say it’ll be sunny, better bring galoshes and an umbrella” Kristol seems to have been awfully silent.

  121. 121.

    MomSense

    @Gin & Tonic:

    I can’t tell you how incredible those women were. They were so tough which meant you could not complain about feeling tired or sore feet. They had seen worse and were not impressed with our stupid complaints.

  122. 122.

    Major Major Major Major

    @NotMax:

    Even today, most voting here uses optical scan of fill in the oval paper ballots.

    This is a good thing, btw. Machine countable, human readable, paper trail. There’s potential for abuse in any system and this has one of the lowest.

  123. 123.

    Mai.naem.mobile

    I usually hate watch Joe Kernen on CNBCs Squawk Box in the AM. I haven’t watched a lot of it this week but watched some this AM. Kernen usually spouts off usual RNC talking points but he’s realistic enough not to live in a bubble. Anyhow,today,he was between a little denial and full acceptance of POTUS Hilz.

  124. 124.

    Miss Bianca

    @Comrade Scrutinizer: Would have been nice if she’d finished up by saying, “yeah, women and men of principle are leaving for the Democratic Party”, but…one step at a time. The cognitive dissonance is strong in conservatives.

  125. 125.

    NotMax

    @Major Major Major Major

    First year of optical scans did present a small but non-trivial problem.

    One filled out the ballot and then stood in line with it at the scanner, which was out in the open. One could easily see others’ ballots if so inclined while on line. Then we had to hand the ballot to a worker who fed it into the machine.

    I raised a royal stink about that compromising the concept of a secret ballot.

    Lo and behold, next election the ballot was enclosed in a separate blank folder with only a non-filled out portion sticking out at the top, each voter fed his/her own ballot into the machine (which grabbed the portion of the ballot sticking out), then handed the empty folder to a poll worker. And in a decidedly low tech solution cardboard boxes of the size used for refrigerators were cut open and stood up around the machine on three sides as barriers one could not see over. Remains that way today.

  126. 126.

    hovercraft

    @Humanities Grad:
    Ohio, Iowa and Pennsylvania have ageing populations, and the demographics there are not changing the same way as they are in most other parts of the country. Long term the democratic party thinks they will become republican stalwarts, the plan was to replace them with NC, VA, GA, and in a best case scenario FL. Obviously VA seems to have moved already, but the others are tantalizingly close to getting there. The assumption is that in 2020 the battleground states will be located further south. Trump has managed to turn Ipwa earlier than expected, but remember that Branstad is using his strong network to help Trump in the state, unlike Kasich in Ohio. One wants to run for president the other has shown no signs of running.

  127. 127.

    OzarkHillbilly

    @NotMax: At our polling station there are only 2 booths. Most just sit at the table for the overflow and fill out their ballots right next to some one else. We feed our ballots into the machine but it probably isn’t too hard to see the votes in one or two races.

    As one of the 3 or 4 liberals in this precinct, I never really worried about it as everyone seems to respect the sanctity of the secret ballot by not trying to sneak a peek.

  130. 130.

    nonynony

    @NotMax: Kristol’s mostly been tweeting. I’m deeply worried about it because he keeps predicting a disaster for Republicans and with his track record I keep worrying that the universe will conspire to make him wrong. I wish he’d just shut up until after the election to keep that from happening.

  131. 131.

    patroclus

    Utah is tied with Trump and Clinton at 26% each and Egg McMuffin at 23% according to a Deseret News poll. This might be the first time since George Wallace that a third party wins a state. Trump is completely tanking there.

  134. 134.

    NotMax

    @OzarkHillbilly

    My local precinct has (rough guess) 50 booths set up, 2 of which offer electronic voting the rest for filling in paper ballots.

    As a thought exercise, once asked an election official what the policy would be for someone who filled out the ballot and then dropped dead while standing on line to be able to feed it into the machine. Would their ballot be counted? Official response was “We have no earthly idea what we’d do.”

  136. 136.

    hovercraft

    @amk:

    SEIU has re-doubled its paid and volunteer efforts in the campaign’s home-stretch to churn up a base wave for Clinton, unleashing its largest ever independent expenditure campaign

    Love it, let’s go some Union busting Ass. By the way why aren’t they running Ads about his behavior towards his employees in Vegas after they voted for a Union and his refusal to allow the Union to form. They had to take him to court. Surely that would be useful information in NV, OH, and PA?

  137. 137.

    Joel

    @hovercraft: I can’t speak for the other states, but for PA critical elements of that summary are just wrong.

    Notice the right hand column in the linked table; growth for every minority population and a decline for whites.

  138. 138.

    Mike J

    @NotMax:

    Official response was “We have no earthly idea what we’d do.”

    Start CPR first, worry about the ballot later. Very few people are well and truly dead before they hit the ground, and even in the rare cases where it does happen, a doctor or at least an EMT ought to decide they’re beyond help.

    That being the case, surely they assist people who have difficulty voting due to physical impairment? It would seem proper to help this voter while the medical people attempted (whether successful or not) to save him.

  139. 139.

    OzarkHillbilly

    @NotMax: Yeah, I’m in a very small rural precinct. A lot of elections I’m the only voter there. This past Presidential primary was pretty full with all the Trump voters. Of course, seeing as Dem ballots are colored differently from GOP ballots, everybody knew who was that lone Hillary voter reported in our precinct. :-)

    “We have no earthly idea what we’d do.”

    Heh. I know what they’d do: Call someone.

  140. 140.

    hovercraft

    @OzarkHillbilly:
    Remember the whole kerfuffle with Angela Merkel when wiki leaks or was it Snowden let loose that we were hacking her phones, including her personal cell phone. Even though she and her intelligence apparatus probably knew this, the German media went nuts and she cancelled a trip or some such, and Obama had to apologize.
    Aha, that must have part of Obama’s Apology Tour of the world that the right is always talking about.

  141. 141.

    Fair Economist

    @Joel: In Iowa the minority population is growing, but it’s still small. The (rough) rule is that ethnically homogenous populations tend not to be as racist, and majority-minority areas tend not to be too racist either. The worst problems with racism are normally when the minority is still distinct a minority but is large enough to matter. Perhaps Iowa is moving into that category.

  143. 143.

    hovercraft

    @NotMax:
    Unfortunately he was on TV the other day saying the Donald’s goose is cooked. Perhaps it’s the case of a broken clock.

  147. 147.

    geg6

    @hovercraft:

    I can’t speak for anywhere else, but I don’t hear anyone in the PA Democratic Party saying anything about PA becoming a GOP state. I have no idea where you got that idea, but it’s simply not true. And, in reality, the minority demographics are changing quite a bit, with an increase in the admittedly small Hispanic population (but something like a doubling the last I heard) and in the African American population. It’s white people who are fading out, mainly because the white people in this state are mainly old mother fuckers. Not a whole lot of young white people, especially in the western part of the state.

  148. 148.

    catclub

    @Fair Economist:

    The (rough) rule is that ethnically homogenous populations tend not to be as racist,

    very rough. compare Vermont and Idaho, both pretty homogeneously white.

  149. 149.

    Pest Bog Mummy, Frakensteinbeck

    @hovercraft:
    My god. Either Trump wins, or Bill Kristol is right about something. The apocalypse has arrived.

    Aha, that must have part of Obama’s Apology Tour of the world that the right is always talking about.

    That? Oh, no. The Apology Tour was when at the beginning of his presidency Obama went to the Middle East and gave some speeches about how Islam should be respected and Israel and the Arabs should live in peace. Conservatives absolutely flipped their shit, and never forgot about it. The rest of the world got the message: The Bush years were over.

  150. 150.

    germy

    @catclub:

    very rough. compare Vermont and Idaho, both pretty homogeneously white.

    KKK posters were appearing in Vermont. Some of the rural parts are pretty racist.

  151. 151.

    OzarkHillbilly

    @hovercraft: There was some US press making noise too. I can’t really say what the left/right balance of who was the most “shocked, shocked I tell you” was, I seem to remember it being fairly balanced between the Glenn Greenwald’s and the Sean Hannity’s.

  154. 154.

    OzarkHillbilly

    @catclub: I’ve spent a fair amount of time out west and the overt racism there is largely applied to Native Americans (and in the SW Hispanics) but not blacks.

  155. 155.

    hovercraft

    Mike Lux is a Senior Adviser at the Democratic National Committee.

    Between the public polling already available before the appalling Access Hollywood tape came out, and the stories that have broken since, it is very clear that suburban, college-educated women that were considered the key swing voters at the beginning of this race are now moving solidly to Hillary Clinton’s camp. The question that remains in this race is whether the Democratic base — people of color, unmarried women, Bernie voters, and millennials — will turn out in big numbers to vote for her and other Democrats. And the way we turn them out and get them to vote for Hillary (as opposed to Johnson or Stein, very few are going to vote for Trump) is to give them strong progressive and populist reasons to do so.

    Research and analysis by Democracy Corps and Women’s Voices Women’s Vote Action Fund lay this case out very well, and provide a path for Democrats up and down the ballot to turn this into a Democratic wave election:

    Millennials are poised to give Hillary Clinton and Democrats a big margin in November’s election if they are engaged to vote and if progressives are smart in dealing with the third party vote. Millennial voters are in a very different place than they were two weeks ago, according to a new web survey of likely millennial voters in the eleven most competitive battleground states…

    Democratic millennials have started to consolidate for Clinton, but their Republican contemporaries have not done the same for Trump. Gary Johnson’s millennial vote is now a repository for most of those anti-Trump Republicans. The biggest, genuine problem is whether millennials will vote. The emerging battle over the economy – centered on taxes, trickle down and corporate responsibility – is getting their attention. Millennials are in an anti-corporate mood and desperate for change, and this new focus may move them to the polls on Election Day.

    The message that DCorps and WVWVAF recommends corresponds to the populist progressive economic message Hillary has embraced in the two debates and in her terrific speeches on the economy in Warren, MI and Toledo, OH. DCorps and WVWVAF sum it up:

    Clinton wants to end the reign of trickle-down economics and raise taxes on the wealthy that have seen all the new income gains so they pay their fair share and so we can invest in the middle class. Trump will enact the biggest tax cut for the one percent in history, including a $4 billion dollar tax break for his family, and make inequality even worse.

    It is clear that the voters we need to turn out — especially young people — are populist and progressive to the max. They want millionaires and billionaires to pay their fair share of taxes. They want to end the destructive cycle of student debt. They want good jobs and good wages and dignity in the workplace. They want Wall Street to be held accountable. And that is exactly what Democrats have said they will do, in our party platform, in speeches all over the country, in the legislation our elected officials have introduced in Congress.

    If Democrats and progressive movement leaders alike give those voters a reason to turn out, the data tells us they will respond. With Republicans in open and ugly civil war, a lot of their voters either won’t vote for Trump; won’t vote for the GOP candidates who aren’t supporting Trump; or won’t vote at all. Given that circumstance, a big turnout by young and progressive constituencies will give us a big wave election for Democrats, meaning not only that Hillary wins, but that we win the Senate and, yes, the House too.

    So to all my Democratic friends, progressive bloggers, social media mavens, and grassroots activists: don’t spend all your time attacking Trump. I know it is impossible to resist responding to his nastiness sometimes, and we should, but Trump makes the case that he is a bad guy every day, and we shouldn’t be spending all our time telling people what they already know. The key to winning this election is to rise up and remind voters why Democrats deserve their votes, what we stand for, who we are, and what we intend to accomplish if they just give us a chance.

    Let’s do this, GOTV

  161. 161.

    hovercraft

    @Joel:
    The data as you say contradicts what I heard, I was going off of analysis from a couple of pollsters who said that was the plan, maybe the reason for PA is different, but there’s a reason that it’s the great white whale for the GOP every election. They seemed to think that they would finally catch it soon, and that was why it was important for Hillary to invest in Georgia this time even if she doesn’t win it, to set up for 2020, when PA and OH will be much harder to win.
    But the census data you linked to gives me hope that they are wrong.

  162. 162.

    Ian

    I am beginning to think this is going to be a very bizarre election. I think the dem’s will win NV, AZ, Georgia, Florida, and NC, but lose Ohio and Iowa. What the fuck Iowa and Ohio?

  164. 164.

    liberal

    @Ian: Sam Wang has OH a light blue, I think > 75% HRC.

    IA used to be pretty liberal, a long, long time ago. Been taken over by the Xian nutjobs.

  166. 166.

    Shell

    When you’re rich you can get away with anything.

    Theres that old joke: If you’re rich they call you eccentric; if you’re poor you’re just plain crazy.

  167. 167.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Ian: I think it will be less bizarre than that. Dems might lose Ohio, or win Georgia and Arizona, but Ohio is running bluer than Georgia and Arizona.

    My best guess is that the final map will have only minor differences from 2012. Probably Clinton will lose Iowa and the 2nd Maine district, and win North Carolina (which Obama carried in 2008).

  168. 168.

    hovercraft

    @geg6:

    I couldn’t find a clip of the two pollsters, it was Cornell Belcher and someone else. But here are two articles discussing why PA is expected to trend to the GOP, the crux seems to be Western PA, and the percentage of college educated whites in the state. The Cook one is a couple of years old, but the 538 i from this year.

    From the Cook Report

    My colleague David Wasserman has compiled state-by-state Partisan Voting Index data from 1994 to 2014. First introduced in 1997, and compiled especially for the Report by POLIDATA®, the Cook PVI measures how each district performs at the presidential level compared to the nation as a whole. For example, the state of Alabama has a PVI of R+13 which means when combining the results of 2008 and 2012, the state voted 13 points more Republican than the country as a whole……….

    In fact, if you look at the “Battleground States” of 2012 – Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Virginia–all but Iowa have gotten more Democratic since 1998.

    The only blue states that have become less blue since 1998 are Iowa, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania. ………..

    In 2012, Obama carried the Philadelphia area by 63 percent, while Romney won the rest of the state by 55 percent. If Romney had gotten just 45 percent of the vote in Philadelphia–and still carried the rest of the state by 55 percent–he would have won the state. In other words, if a Republican could lose Philadelphia by the same percentage they win the rest of the state, they could turn the state red.

    From 538

    I’d argue Pennsylvania has leapfrogged Colorado and Virginia as the next most winnable state for Republicans. In fact, it may be on pace to claim sole “tipping point” status.

    I arrived at this conclusion by calculating each state’s “six-cycle trend” — a measure of how much more Democratic or Republican-leaning each state has trended relative to the nation as a whole since 1992. To do this, I compared Obama’s 2012 two-party vote share in each state to the Democrat’s share in each of the five prior elections, then took the average of those differences, controlling for national swings and the number of four-year intervals…….

    Pennsylvania, where the projected Democratic share of the two-party vote would drop to 52.3 percent, would become the next most winnable state for Republicans after Florida (50.6 percent) and Ohio (51.9 percent). In fact, after Pennsylvania, the next most winnable states for Trump would be New Hampshire (52.9 percent) and Iowa (53.0 percent), followed by Virginia (53.2 percent), Wisconsin (53.4 percent) and Colorado (53.7 percent).

    Western Pennsylvania is driving the state’s rightward drift — its voting patterns now resemble greater Appalachia’s more than those of the Philadelphia suburbs. Once dominated by steel towns and union Democrats, the region has reveled in a fracking/natural gas boom that has more recently experienced a downturn and has revolted against EPA regulations. Obama’s infamous “bitter clingers” remark in 2008 didn’t do Democrats any favors either……..

    Demographics — Older, white voters without college degrees are the bedrock of Trump’s coalition, and Pennsylvania is the sixth-oldest state in the nation. As of 2014, its median age was 40.7 years, three years older than in Virginia and four years older than in Colorado, according to the census. Pennsylvania also has a much whiter electorate. According to the Census, as of 2014, 83 percent of its eligible voters were non-Hispanic whites compared with 78 percent in Colorado and 70 percent in Virginia.But here’s the kicker: According to the Census, just 29 percent of non-Hispanic whites age 25 and older in Pennsylvania held at least a bachelor’s degree, compared with 43 percent in Colorado and 39 percent in Virginia. That’s a massive disparity, and whites without a college degree have been among the fastest GOP-trending groups nationally.………

  169. 169.

    Matt McIrvin

    @NotMax: At my polling place we have cardboard cubicles you can stand in while you fill out your ballot, but they don’t use the privacy folders. If the ballot is one-sided you hold it face down before you stick it in the box, but sometimes the referendum questions are on the back.

  171. 171.

    Applejinx

    @Chyron HR:

    Why not both?

    This. I continue to believe that when he lost access to American bankers, he turned to the Russian Mob, and when he lost access to his own daughter Ivanka he turned to Jeffery Epstein and whatever other pedophiliac activities he was up to.

    Trump reaches out and takes what he wants, and if that’s blocked he turns elsewhere.

  172. 172.

    Applejinx

    Which suggests that post-election he’s going to be trying to organize the deplorables into a terrorist organization to destroy literally everybody in the government, D or R. In this he would have Russian support. Thing is, he would still be completely unable to organize a bloody thing, so it would not be the most effective terrorist organization. But I’m guessing that’s the nasty little gotcha waiting for us.

  173. 173.

    Botsplainer

    @Applejinx:

    This. I continue to believe that when he lost access to American bankers, he turned to the Russian Mob, and when he lost access to his own daughter Ivanka he turned to Jeffery Epstein and whatever other pedophiliac activities he was up to.

    Oh damn, that’s nasty, but you might be right.

  175. 175.

    hovercraft

    @MattF:
    Good luck with that. Any money he got wil never be seen again, in one of the threads last night someone said he’s pulling his Ads in several of the battleground states. He’s going to keep the money and run.

  176. 176.

    JR in WV

    @Kay:

    In my world this is a felony called peeping tom, especially when committed against 15 y o young women. You don’t have to puzzy-grab a 15 y o to molest her in my book. FQing monster should be picked up and taken away charged with molestation, peeping tom, you name it. Maybe we will live to see it.

  177. 177.

    catclub

    @MattF: good luck to them on that. I bet if they sue, they can litigate for six years and get back a quarter of it.
    Maybe.

  179. 179.

    Felonius Monk

    @Kay:

    They’re probably lining up work on Trump TV.

    If Trump TV is run like most of the other Trump ventures, they won’t be paid for their effort and will be looking for work in 6 months when it goes belly-up.

  180. 180.

    Humanities Grad

    @Matt McIrvin:

    As noted previously, I live here in Ohio, and I think Clinton takes it next month. Now I’m in a VERY Republican area–Trump/Pence signs all over, way more prevalent than they were for Romney in 2012. But the polling data looks pretty good, and Clinton does have a very active campaign organization in-state, which Trump _still_ doesn’t. Hillary supporters in this area are being quiet, I think, but they’re there. Plus, her campaign is not in the process of actively imploding, which has to count for something.

    Both her campaign and supporting super-PACs have been absolutely saturation-bombing the airwaves with campaign commercials. Trump is advertising here, too, as are some pro-Trump super-PACs (the NRA has been running some IMHO ridiculously over-the-top attack ads aimed at Hillary, but then, I’m not their target demo). But I’d say the pro-Hillary or anti-Trump ads that I’m seeing are getting a lot more airing. Given how many resources they’re pouring into the state, I’ve got to figure that the Clinton camp thinks they’ve got a good shot at winning.

  181. 181.

    Walker

    @hovercraft:

    Trending arguments by themselves are bad science. They are good at coming with initial hypothesis which you then verify with more rigorous testing. They are not a final analysis.

    Trending arguments assume “as long as things keep going this way”. For the 538 analysis to be correct, fracking jobs have to outpace growth in urban areas like Pittsburgh and Philly (or at least lose less). Sure, there was a fracking boom. But there is no indication they will outpace urban areas.

  182. 182.

    Lizzy L

    @Humanities Grad: The Clinton campaign is also phone banking Ohio — I’ve been calling Ohio from home. Lots of voicemail, mostly, but occasionally I talk to a human being. I’ve encountered no Trump voters, though one person simply hung up when I said I was a volunteer for the Clinton campaign. Everyone else said they were voting for Hillary.

    ETA: 538 this morning has both Ohio and Arizona tipping blue by a small margin. And Iowa! Could easily change, of course.

  183. 183.

    JR in WV

    @Comrade Scrutinizer:

    Because the Russians want control of their puppets, else why have them?

    They need to be able to tell Trump, or Morning Joe exactly what to do next, and if they know everything about their private lives, they cal pull the strings and make them dance.

    They think they can do that to Hillary, I don’t think so. That’s one reason this election is so important from a national survival perspective.

    Fuq them Russian Nazis. And the American Nazis too, especially!

  184. 184.

    workworkwork

    @Iowa Old Lady: Got the spleen taken out on Sunday (it was enlarged), in ICU on Monday, post-surgical on Monday night.

    Right now I’m steadily getting better but it’s not fast enough for me. I’m on liquids and have started walking a few times per day. P.T. has signed off on me as long as I keep up my daily walk and I’m now cleared to transfer myself without assistance.

    They’re putting in a order for me to get some solid food if I want.

    It’s a bit frustrating that I can’t just “push through” this. But I suppose that somethings you can’t rush. I guess going from almost fainting while standing on Monday to walking up and down the halls on my own initiative today is serious progress. But I miss my wife (in respite care – we talk everyday) and, of course, the kitties.

    My brother-in-law and his wife flew out Monday and did a great job helping out. They got my car back home, picked up prescription refills for Betsy and helped notify other in-laws so I could get texts and emails. Such a wonderful outpouring of support!

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