Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

If you cannot answer whether trump lost the 2020 election, you are unfit for office.

You are either for trump or for democracy. Pick one.

Sadly, there is no cure for stupid.

Someone should tell Republicans that violence is the last refuge of the incompetent, or possibly the first.

Hot air and ill-informed banter

The lights are all blinking red.

Jack Smith: “Why did you start campaigning in the middle of my investigation?!”

When someone says they “love freedom”, rest assured they don’t mean yours.

This country desperately needs a functioning fourth estate.

I like political parties that aren’t owned by foreign adversaries.

Black Jesus loves a paper trail.

Republicans are the party of chaos and catastrophe.

If you are still in the gop, you are either an extremist yourself, or in bed with those who are.

The most dangerous place for a black man in America is in a white man’s imagination.

Giving in to doom is how we fail to fight for ourselves & one another.

Wow, I can’t imagine what it was like to comment in morse code.

One of our two political parties is a cult whose leader admires Vladimir Putin.

If rights aren’t universal, they are privilege, not rights.

Accountability, motherfuckers.

Prediction: the gop will rethink its strategy of boycotting future committees.

Every reporter and pundit should have to declare if they ever vacationed with a billionaire.

Fundamental belief of white supremacy: white people are presumed innocent, minorities are presumed guilty.

“The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits.”

These are not very smart people, and things got out of hand.

You are here: Home / Politics / Trumpery / Hail to the Hairpiece / Open Thread: Mike Pence Is Sharing Reince’s Breakfast Baileys

Open Thread: Mike Pence Is Sharing Reince’s Breakfast Baileys

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Governor Pence, no matter what he tells us, is not a good man. His willing assumption of the role of Donald Trump’s undercard is exposing this unhappy truth to a much larger audience… along with some glimpses as to why he was known around the halls of Congress as “Mike Dense.”

Pence would be just another example of the truism that nobody who associates with Donald Trump, however tangentially, comes away unharmed. Except that Pence may just be the exemplar for the truth behind the truism: Nobody willing to associate with Donald Trump is a good person.

Reader Interactions

160Comments

  2. 2.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    on jobs fleeing Ohio… Obama reminded his Ohio audience that he saved the auto industry with no help from the Republicans, including Rob Portman. I’d love to see a poll on how many (white) people who owe their jobs to Obama are voting for Portman. And Trump.

  6. 6.

    lahke

    Hi, Anne: is there a winnables list for the House we can donate to? I’ve already ponied up for the Senate, but now my ambition is to capture both chambers.

  8. 8.

    John S.

    What a dick Pence is. Because what a little girl struggling with self-esteem needs to hear is that a couple of daddy figures will keep her safe from terrorism…

  9. 9.

    Kay

    stuart stevens ‏@stuartpstevens 23h23 hours ago
    stuart stevens Retweeted Logan Dobson
    Amazing that on election day, both Romney and Obama had favorables of 50%. A world away from 2016.

    Bullshit. Clinton’s favorability is at 47. God almighty but even the Never Trumpers cannot tell the truth about Hillary Clinton. This trope that she’s universally loathed has just become set in stone.

    They nominated a giant douchebag so now they have to make Clinton out to be some kind of horror.

  10. 10.

    Keith P.

    Jeez, the answer to poor body image is to feel comfortable that Daddy Trump will make you safe and get you a job? What a schmuck.

  14. 14.

    Kay

    If Donald Trump hadn’t have rescued Mike Pence, Pence would have lost in Indiana and we would all be rid of him. He’d go right to the wingnut welfare circuit but at least we wouldn’t have to listen to him.

  16. 16.

    Brachiator

    So the Trump campaign has been reduced to free floating bullshit. Pence was originally supposed to convince GOP holdouts that he was the conservative voice of reason, waiting in the wings. Instead he is forced to go full metal wingnut, backing Trump’s rage monster.

    Why should anyone take this crap seriously?

  17. 17.

    RK

    Happened to see an interesting take on Dylan receiving the Nobel.

    Call me cynical, but this is the lens through which I judge Bob Dylan’s Nobel win. The Academy did indeed feel like their boycott of American literature was starting to look silly, but they still didn’t want to award a prize to an actual American writer. So they chose Dylan. No matter what you think of his work, I view this as practically the ultimate snub of American novelists. You think Pynchon and DeLillo and Roth and Oates are great writers? Hah! They’re not even up to the standards of a good pop singer.

    And now they can spend another two decades ignoring American writers.

  18. 18.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Kay: Again, Stuart Stevens worked for a campaign that brought Trump in as a surrogate not in spite of but precisely because of birtherism.

    You know, I don’t agree with all the people who support me and my guess is they don’t all agree with everything I believe in,” Romney genially told reporters aboard his charter plane in May 2012, when asked about Trump’s anti-Obama birther crusade. “But I need to get 50.1% or more and I’m appreciative to have the help of a lot of good people.”

    IIRC Trump recorded Romney robocalls that were targeted at WCWs.

  19. 19.

    Lyrebird

    @lahke: Daily Kos has some on their endorsement list, can find it on DKos and by searching for “actblue daily kos” last I tried.

  21. 21.

    Kay

    @Baud:

    Ah, yes, those bygone days of 2012, before the She-Devil cast a spell on Republicans and turned them all into raving maniacs.

    Before we elevate Romney to sainthood, let’s not forget Mitt Romney kissed Donald Trump’s ass for months. There’s tape.

  23. 23.

    West of the Rockies (been a while)

    There are Republicans I’ve disliked much more intensely, but, man, Pence is a self-serving, empty suit. Arrogant and dishonest, yet, oh so pious.

  25. 25.

    geg6

    @Kay:

    I’ll tell you something interesting that happened at work. Two women who I know will not vote for Trump but who expressed great antipathy for Hillary both talked about their great admiration for her ability to remain calm and cool and connect with the audience members who asked questions during Sunday’s debate. I don’t think they feel quite so hostile to her today. And Michelle’s speech will resonate with them, I know. They can’t be the only people who are experiencing this dawning realization. Obama had it right in ’08. HOPE.

  29. 29.

    Kay

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    They’re not allowed to equate Trump and Hillary Clinton in any way, shape or form. That’s rule number one.

    They had approximately 50,000 chances to grab hold of their Party at any time from 2009 to 2015 and they refused. They refused because it was working for them. They were picking up statehouses and congressional seats.

    That’s what happened. It’s not a mystery. We all watched.

  30. 30.

    rk

    Nobody willing to associate with Donald Trump is a good person

    Nobody willing to vote for him is a good person either. They’re either stupid or evil or both.

  34. 34.

    Mnemosyne

    @Eric S.:

    We’re doing our annual weekend trip up the coast to Santa Barbara. I’m a little too excited that I get to take the Coast Starlight up since it’s only a two-hour train ride, but I love trains. I just wish I could shake this stupid cold since half the fun of Santa Barbara is walking everywhere.

  35. 35.

    Kay

    @geg6:

    My dental hygenist is a wingnut and she’s voting for Clinton. I have a weirdly close relationship with her- I don’t know how it happened or how to go back to not being her best friend :)

  37. 37.

    danielx

    Mike Pence almost seems to be enjoying his degradation. https://t.co/ZXhP7CI5Qu

    — (((Steve Chapman))) (@SteveChapman13) October 12, 2016

    Well, if I recall correctly, humility is considered a virtue in Christian doctrine. In which case my man Mike is going to get his share of virtue and quite a bit more.

  38. 38.

    Pest Bog Mummy, Frakensteinbeck

    You can really see the fundamentalist conservatism there. Suffering is irrelevant. People are irrelevant. Facts are irrelevant. If Correct Thought is followed, Correct Results will occur. He also seems pretty stupid and inflexible. I’ve never heard a politician so unable to improvise. He just spouts talking points robotically.

  44. 44.

    Pest Bog Mummy, Frakensteinbeck

    @Kay:

    They nominated a giant douchebag so now they have to make Clinton out to be some kind of horror.

    They deserve slightly more credit than that. They were always convinced Hillary Clinton is a universally unlikable monster, just like they’ve always been convinced foreign governments have no respect for Obama. It’s how they feel, and how their buddies on the news feel, so it must be how everyone feels.

  45. 45.

    Eric S.

    @Mnemosyne: that sounds like fun. Except the cold thing.

    I’m taking my new-to-me, 1992 Porsche on a weekend road trip with the local owners’ club. Saturday’s drive is up and down the Mississippi along the river roads. Going the weather holds and I can keep the top down.

  46. 46.

    Mary G

    This Dodgers/Nationals game is the first one I’ve watched in a while and it’s giving me ulcers.

    I like this article at Vox: Hillary Clinton says the news makes her want to “look at cat GIFs.” Us too.

    Kitten massaging other kitten’s neck is soothing.

  49. 49.

    trollhattan

    @JJ:
    Howdy [waves] don’t mind the unfinished banisters, stray mustard jars, trolls or giant cats. We’ve contacted the right folks who can deal with them.

  51. 51.

    Mike J

    Robert Mann ‏@RTMannJr 59m59 minutes ago
    Robert Mann Retweeted Charlie Cook
    Few people are as conservative about these projections as Charlie Cook. If he says it’s over, it’s over.

    Charlie Cook Verified account @CharlieCookDC
    Take a close look at the new Fox News poll released tonight. This race is OVER. link

    Mann is right. If Cook says it’s over, it’s over. A *Fox News* poll.

  53. 53.

    Dog Dawg Damn

    The fever seems to be breaking.

    I’ve seen many commentators on multiple outlets openly condemning Trump as a fascist. The Committee for the Protection of Journalism, the ADL, media showing the Nazi slogans at his hate rallies, the police being called in to protect the press pool . . . this is all being covered, and it’s nasty, yes, but the fever seems to be breaking. He’s only up 4 in Texas, for God’s sake.

    I see this election as in the bag, but hope the margin is enough to completely repudiate the vile movement and allow everyone to call it what it is — American Fascism.

  57. 57.

    Major Major Major Major

    @Baud: I listened to NPR during my ride to the train station today and it sure was something. On the one hand, Trump was sexually assaulting women and blaming the Jews for pointing it out. On the other hand, Podesta’s emails.

  58. 58.

    catclub

    1. Serbia apology should get some coverage.

    2. Trump versus Berlusconi. Trump got a free ride from the media for a LONG time, but Trump does not own the media – they can turn on him. And they have.

  59. 59.

    Lyrebird

    @Pest Bog Mummy, Frakensteinbeck: This is a reply to your comment below about the disorganization in the hate wing of the Republican nominee’s coalition. And @Adam L Silverman‘s remarks about expecting what was it, an uptick in low-density violence?

    I wish I had more confidence that someone was tracking some of the incidents like the (thankfully non-fatal) mauling of a Sikh man in the past week, or several weeks ago some white supremacist murdered a teenage boy (walking while Black) by running him down with his car… Am I hearing about them more bc these stories are getting more national publicity, because I’m glomming onto the news more with the election manure-show, or because there’s an uptick?

    I respect some commenter’s “ah, screw ’em” approach, but I don’t share it yet, fearing for the impact on more Sikhs, Muslim women, Black teens, etc. I don’t expect too much violent action on the anti-Semitic revival front, but then again they did just catch that teen Nazi group in Colorado… (Meanwhile, those bold Jewish Republicans are crying into their drinks after that gross Trump speech.)

    ETA: Dog Dawg must be telepathic (joking), answered my comment before I’d posted it!

  63. 63.

    ? Martin

    @Dog Dawg Damn: Here’s the Texas poll

    “The good news for Republicans in Texas is that he still has a lead,” said Jim Riddlesperger, a political science professor at Texas Christian University in Fort Worth. “The bad news is they depend … on a 10 to 12 point Republican win to elect people down ballot. This could have an impact in down ballot legislative races.

    Oct 10-12, so the tape and debate was baked in, the more recent revelations not covered.

  66. 66.

    Adam L Silverman

    @catclub: Its been contested and Newsweek has updated its article saying that their original Serbian source can not, as of now, validate its information. That’s why I didn’t include it in the post.
    http://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-apologises-serbia-yugoslavia-bombing-509417

    Updated | The Trump campaign denied a report in Serbian weekly magazine Nedeljnik that Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has issued an apology for his country’s decision to bomb Serbia during Bill Clinton’s tenure at the White House.

    Jason Miller, senior communications advisor to Trump said Trump and the campaign’s Indiana state director Suzie Jaworowski never gave an interview to the magazine. “This was a hoax and we look forward to receiving a formal retraction and apology from all involved,” Miller said in an emailed statement.

    Nedeljnik was not immediately reachable for further comment on Trump campaign’s statement. The magazine published two posts in Serbian later on Thursday that appeared to suggest it was investigating.

  69. 69.

    SFAW

    @danielx:

    Well, if I recall correctly, humility is considered a virtue in Christian doctrine.

    “Humility” and “humiliation” are not really the same thing.

    On the other hand, few people more deserving of humiliation than the Guy with the Steely-but-Vacant Stare.

  71. 71.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Lyrebird: stochastic violence/terrorism and low intensity conflict. Low density violence would be like 1 punch for every 1,000 households or something… ?

  72. 72.

    Pest Bog Mummy, Frakensteinbeck

    @Lyrebird:
    It is thoughtful and admirable to be worried about those who do suffer on the receiving end. While I do not believe there will be enough of an increase in violence to be even a blip on the stability of the US as a state, I’m sure there has been and will be an increase in small-scale incidents. People will be hurt, traumatized, and die. Their numbers will be vanishingly small compared to society as a whole, but every one will be a tragedy and a crime. If the question is societal stability, I think things will be just fine. If the question is if real people will get hurt – yeah, they will, and that is not fine at all. Very much not fine.

  75. 75.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Lyrebird:
    https://www.splcenter.org/hatewatch/2016/10/10/montana-republicans-warmly-embrace-white-nationalists-legislative-candidacy

    Despite a long background in far-right radicalism, youthful Taylor Rose’s campaign enjoys deep and broad support within the state’s GOP.

    Taylor Rose likes to project a fresh-scrubbed, wholesome image to his fellow Montanans while campaigning for a seat in the state’s House of Representatives. It’s easy for the blonde-haired, blue-eyed and clean-shaven 28-year-old from the rural Columbia Falls area to do, flashing a toothy grin and ranting about the need to get the federal government out of workers’ hair and open up the state’s timberlands to lumber operations.

    The image, combined with a pleasing message (Rose likes to label himself a “pro-labor Republican”) and a slick campaign, have all raised the prospects that Rose might be able to pull off an upset win over incumbent Rep. Zac Perry, a Democrat, in the race for the House seat in District 3, which historically leans Republican.

    What many voters may not realize, however, is Taylor’s long history of deep involvement with the white nationalist movement, and the dangerously bigoted worldview he has promoted since his teenage years –– a history well documented by the SPLC and the Anti-Defamation League in the years leading up to his campaign.

    But Taylor has now carefully whitewashed his image with the help of the Montana Republican Party. GOP candidates have employed Rose for state campaigns and as a legislative aide. A number of mainstream Republican candidates, including GOP gubernatorial candidate Greg Gianforte, have contributed to Rose’s campaign. And one leading Montana Republican dismissed concerns about his background, saying “the rest of us think of him as a good conservative.”

  81. 81.

    SFAW

    @srv:

    You’re saying the great Jon Voight is not a good person

    Been saying that for at least eight years, and who knows how long he’s been a RWNJ Asshole?

  83. 83.

    dww44

    @Kay: Thank you. I’m as exasperated with the unceasing attacks and misrepresentation of Hillary Your venting works for me.

    If there is any justice, not only will she win in a landslide, she will be a stellar President and she will have a Senate majority and a close to House majority and no Speaker Paul Ryan. Then Pence or Ryan or whoever can run in 2020 IF the GOP hasn’t totally fractured by then.

  84. 84.

    catclub

    @Major Major Major Major: You heard a different bit than I did. When NPR says something along the lines of “Trump made his most apocalyptic speech of the year” that is out of the ordinary for NPR.
    No bothsidedoitism on that one.

  87. 87.

    JJ

    @trollhattan: ha – like I said I really do love it here. Thanks for the warm welcome. I was loosing my sh*t out there and stumbled across a Cole rant about the Bernie/bros/millennials that I read and muttered back to in full agreement. Then I wandered in and found you all. Then I was hooked.

  91. 91.

    Scamp Dog

    @Baud: I’d be rooting for a double defeat. The idea of seeing that match, with that result, puts a smile on my face, actually.

  99. 99.

    BruceFromOhio

    @dww44:

    If there is any justice, not only will she win in a landslide, she will be a stellar President and she will have a Senate majority and a close to House majority and no Speaker Paul Ryan. Then Pence or Ryan or whoever can run in 2020 IF the GOP hasn’t totally fractured by then. burned the entire place to the fucking ground.

    I got buckets, hoses, and that cool fire-fighting foam shit the airport crash crews use. Works great on flaming assholes.

    @Mike in NC: He can now add “Grift-O-Matic 2016: The Griftening” to his resume.

  100. 100.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Mike in NC: Mike Pence has actually appeared in several low budget horror movies.

    boom chukka wow wo… Oh, horror…. That’s very different

    Never mind.

  101. 101.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    Josh Jordan ‏@NumbersMuncher 1h1 hour ago
    WFAA/SurveyUSA Texas poll:
    Trump 47
    Clinton 43
    Johnson 3

    Trump’s average lead in TX is now under 6…

  105. 105.

    TS

    @? Martin: The report also notes that the GOP nominee is still leading with women. I still have the thought – and moreso after the latest revelations, that some women who tell pollsters they are voting for this person – do not intend to do this. They may not vote for Hillary but they will not vote for him.

  108. 108.

    Lizzy L

    I’m perusing the Fox poll. It’s interesting. One takeaway jumped out at me: People seem to dislike both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, and the numbers are not all that different. But when asked, do you believe the candidate has the temperament to serve effectively as POTUS, people say YES about HRC, the number are in the mid-60s percentile, and NO to DT, the numbers are also in the mid-60s percentile. When asked, do they think HC is qualified to be President, they say Yes. When asked if they think DT is qualified, they say No.

    There’s a lot more there.

  109. 109.

    Peale

    Here’s hoping the republicans pick up hillary’s cat gif comment and go on a public rampage against kittens. You know they can be goaded that way.

  110. 110.

    ? Martin

    Ok, so something I just realized that puts a few pieces together is that white christians are now a narrow minority in the US. That is to say, the GOP which has relied on the white christian alliance to carry them to power, and which white christians could rely on to represent their interests legislatively, can no longer get elected as an isolated bloc. This is the first time in US history this is true.

    White christians are now going to have to find common cause with other groups – either other religious groups or other ethnic groups to carry the GOP, which means that the GOP is going to have to abandon at least some parts of their core identity. So we really are seeing an extinction burst for white christians. That’s why the racism and religious intolerance, opposition to immigration, why the attachment to Trump despite everything he does. This is an existential moment for guys like Falwell, for Pence, and so on and it’s why they’re willing to sink so low as to back Trump as an authoritarian – to offer to give up their vote to repeal the 19th amendment, etc. They believe that white christian identity will overcome the democracy that they’re giving up, and that it will overcome Trumps personal flaws. Even jews, which Republicans at least pretended to seek common cause with (until someone said ‘Happy Holidays’, and then they were all ‘Fuck you! It’s Merry Christmas!’)

    So this is a bit of a dangerous moment. We’re basically in the process of breaking the back of the United States’ most longstanding cultural identity. Demographics only get worse for them from here out. And I think conservatives realize this more directly and urgently than liberals do, in the sense that we didn’t see this as an existential moment for them, rather as just another election. Obama sort of jumped the gun a bit – he won before this inversion happened. So the other-ism of Obama is just another component of this, as probably is the obstructionism. This is basically Congress holding their breath until they get what they want, which they never will.

    The other GOP candidates this year didn’t seem up to the task of fighting an existential fight. I don’t think this is really about establishment politics now, but maybe more about establishment culture. Trump seen as a terrible messenger but as a powerful protector. Sanders seen by the left as a break from defending public policy from a religious/cultural perspective which appealed to a lot of younger voters. Nobody worried that Sanders would hold back on climate change under some sense that God will save us. He could give it all of the detached urgency that many atheists give the subject. Clinton’s history isn’t as clean on this. She’s a good progressive but carries some of that old cultural baggage. Trump by comparison is unafraid to attack the other – other religions, other ethnicities, immigrants, etc. He is fully committed to pushing that white christian minority back into the majority – and nobody else in the GOP field would promise that – even guys like Cruz.

    So, we’ve got 400 years of dominance crashing down around us that we’re going to have to cope with. As for 2020, it really depends on whether Trumps voters can cope with new alliances (doesn’t look like it) and whether the GOP leadership believes they can build such alliances, or whether they try yet another cycle of fighting the wind. But it seems as though we’re probably not long for US policy to be largely constructed around protestant teachings. Whatever new alliances form, or whether Democrats just grow majorities, that part is going to have to end because there simply won’t be a coalition left where that is their primary mission. Even on issues like abortion, they’re going to have to give up at least a little bit of ground as painful as that will be.

  112. 112.

    Ruckus

    @Adam L Silverman:

    “the rest of us think of him as a good conservative.”

    That’s a tell right there, that is. Their idea of a good conservative is a flaming white nationalist.

  113. 113.

    CaseyL

    @TS: The women who will vote for Trump are Heathers. There may also be a few who are so terrified of their husbands they don’t dare vote against Trump. Mail-in ballots, for all their virtues, aren’t very private.

  115. 115.

    the Conster, la Citoyenne

    @geg6:

    I’m seeing the same thing. There’s a dawning realization that we’re in an existential battle for normalcy and decency and only one candidate offers that.

  117. 117.

    ? Martin

    @TS: There’s probably a little bit of that, but I also know there are communities where you simply cannot break ranks on politics, and I imagine a lot of north and west Texas is like that. I’m in a community where if anyone knew you voted for Trump, you’d probably not be spoken to for quite some time. The social pressure to back liberal causes is extremely high, and maintaining your place in your community is pretty high on people’s priority list. So even if that community is 100% female, breaking free of it to vote for Clinton would take a lot of fortitude.

  121. 121.

    Keith P.

    A few days ago, someone was asking about Westworld. The person was interested in watching it, and I highly recommended it. To that person, what did you think of it?

  124. 124.

    the Conster, la Citoyenne

    @? Martin:

    Obama and his electoral coalition is the real revolution, now 8 years old – the smashing of white supremacist patriarchy. That’s what’s fueling Trump – that unconscious subliminal fear of whites/males being neutralized by all those others. It’s tribal and feral and dangerous, but enlightening and energizing for all of us non-male/non-whites and woke white males. Hillary represents the smashing of the patriarchal part of the paradigm. No one ever thought that smashing 240 years of unexamined, unearned white male privilege would be easy, and that’s what we’re witnessing, now. There’s really no reversing this trend, and they know it, and are lashing out like a wounded animal.

  127. 127.

    TS

    @? Martin: I like to think that who you vote for is your private affair – guess this is not reality – but I will still believe some women will walk into the polling place & not vote for the GOP nominee – despite telling everyone the opposite.

  128. 128.

    Ruckus

    @? Martin:
    One would think your synopsis is right on the money. But I think you are giving them too much credit for even the slightest rational thought. I believe that they have failed rational thought 101 and are not going to give an inch. They will just lose ground and make a lot of noise, maybe a bit of violence, if they find a leader to tell them exactly what to do. Their entire grift has run it’s course as an effective political concept. Not as a grifting concept mind you, just as a political party. Now I think you might be right on, given enough time for them to grieve and generally make a lot of noise, but as a political powerhouse, I think Trump has burned it almost to the ground.

  129. 129.

    ? Martin

    @the Conster, la Citoyenne: Yeah, I wonder how much of that Obama could see going in, knowing that the time was about right.

    I mean, I can see the white demographics sliding, but whites are still a strong majority. I could see the Christian demographics sliding, but again a strong majority. I missed that the intersection of these two was what really mattered, which makes sense knowing the GOP, but I just never put it together. Once you see that group slipping into the minority, so much now makes sense. Pushing them down hard now is important. Now they may go for a white/multi-religious coalition or a multi-ethnic/Christian coalition, but either would be a marked improvement over what we have. I think the latter is more likely to be tried – I think a lot of Latinos would align quite well with the GOP. But I wonder if they’ve burned their chance at integrating them into the party given how nasty they’ve been this cycle. And if you want to haul in Latinos, you need to start that effort in California, and good fucking luck with that.

  131. 131.

    ? Martin

    @TS: I think that’s a bit too abstract. To a large degree people need to align themselves with their decisions. That is, they can’t pull the lever for Clinton and then talk the talk of Trump. If their community is conservative, and their goal is to fit into their community then they’ll find a way to rationalize voting conservative. Most communities aren’t so polarized that there isn’t space for the other group so that individuals can change and migrate within the community, but some are that polarized. West Virginia has turned into the most conservative states on the map. Bill Clinton won the state by almost 20 points and Hillary Clinton will lose it by around 30. It’s just remarkable how the culture of the state has changed. That’s not a whole bunch of people individually changing their minds – a majority of the voters there will have voted for each Clinton – that’s a cultural shift that brings the individuals with them.

  132. 132.

    scav

    If Trump is recognizable by the weasel on his head, Pence is known by the weasel in his heart and on his lips.

  133. 133.

    Mnemosyne

    So it looks pretty likely that the Devil Woman is, in fact, going to let me take my Florida nieces to Disneyworld this spring, so I started making some reservations and such for the trip. Let me tell you guys, if you haven’t planned a Disneyworld trip lately, it is a frickin’ control freak’s dream. FastPass+ and dining reservations and even getting to pick the color of my MagicBand? I. Am. In. Heaven.

  134. 134.

    petesh

    @Lizzy L: Hmmm. Trump was trying to sell himself as the guy who knows how to game the system but now he’d fix it for you — an asshole but your asshole. Most people are not buying it. Hillary is the bitch who won’t screw things up; you dont have to like her so long as you don’t have to fear her, and she won’t make things worse. How’s that do for poll-interpreting?

  136. 136.

    the Conster, la Citoyenne

    @? Martin:

    The cleavage as I see it is educated v. non-educated whites, and married v. single. Educated/single whites are waking up and joining the non-white culture bit by bit, since they tend to live in, and identify with, urban milieus against the white supremacist rural/exurban religious crackers. Electorally, 10% of white men switching party ID will make the GOP and their white Christian base irrelevant nationally, and forever until they figure out how to not be racist as an organizing principle. Which won’t happen.

  137. 137.

    Lizzy L

    @BillinGlendaleCA: Go Cubbies!
    @Martin: I think for “Christian” you might consider using “Christianist” or even fundamentalist. Catholics are also Christian. Left-wing and moderate Catholics are not supporting Donald Trump, though they have trouble with Clinton because of abortion. RW Catholics would maybe support Trump — were it not pretty clear that the folks who are feeding Trump his lines (and their supporters) have no use for any kind of Catholic and would much prefer that we all die.

  138. 138.

    Mnemosyne

    @Lizzy L:

    Catholics are also Christian. Left-wing and moderate Catholics are not supporting Donald Trump, though they have trouble with Clinton because of abortion. RW Catholics would maybe support Trump — were it not pretty clear that the folks who are feeding Trump his lines (and their supporters) have no use for any kind of Catholic.

    In (I think) 2012 I read a pretty interesting article that said that Catholics are the denomination most likely to reflect the electorate as a whole, because they are more racially and ethnically diverse than most other denominations (for instance, how many Filipino Anglicans do you know as compared to Filipino Catholics?) Most other denominations tend to be fairly homogeneous when it comes to race and ethnicity.

    (Note: these are generalizations about the tendencies of the denomination as a national whole, not anything specific about a church someone here attends.)

  140. 140.

    ? Martin

    @Ruckus: Yeah, I don’t think it’s calculated in that they’ve looked at the demographic numbers. I think it’s visceral – they are now a minority. They believe they are a persecuted minority, which is beyond laughable, but they are indeed a minority. They’re losing political power at a steady clip. They’re losing cultural battles in landslides now. Gay marriage, after acting as though a constitutional amendment against it was within reach, collapsed completely within just a few years, and transgender rights are moving even more quickly behind it. So they can’t measure their loss of status, but they definitely feel it in a powerful way.

    I think the grifting was just a byproduct of the effort, along with the voter suppression and other efforts. They were all ways to hold the dwindling coalition together and to blunt the advance of the opposition. I think they’ve just hit the end of the road – they’ve pulled out all the stops, the courts won’t let them go any further, they’ve gone so far as to nominate someone who gave a speech tonight that should have been in German given the on-cue ‘lock her up’ chants and the need to escort the media out behind riot police. I just heard it about half an hour ago and it’s fucking chilling. He’s gone full-on fascist here – no holding back. I am the messiah, only I can save the country from the jews, etc. Even with all of that, they will fail. Not just fail the election, but fail their cultural goals. This is like facing the end of the Confederacy. They know what’s coming. I don’t think we can appreciate how it feels to them.

  141. 141.

    Peale

    @Mnemosyne: just be careful with Downtown Disney dinner reservations if you plan to go there at night. It is crowded and you are may not be seated on time. And yes, you have to pay the reservation fee even if you show up on time and are told that you will need to wait 2 hours for a table. The idea of a reservation is rather meaningless. The restaurants in the hotels and parks seem to be ok. But downtown Disney is a cruel and awful dining experience if you think standing in a line for something that you paid to reserve is inexcusable given that Disney knows the behavior of its guests better than any known corporation.

  142. 142.

    Anne Laurie

    @Lizzy L:

    I think for “Christian” you might consider using “Christianist” or even fundamentalist. Catholics are also Christian. Left-wing and moderate Catholics are not supporting Donald Trump, though they have trouble with Clinton because of abortion. RW Catholics would maybe support Trump — were it not pretty clear that the folks who are feeding Trump his lines (and their supporters) have no use for any kind of Catholic.

    About that… see my new post, up top.

  143. 143.

    NotMax

    @Martin

    Not often mentioned is that marijuana legalization is on the ballot in a number of states this year, including Arizona. Ought to provide a bump to younger voters’ turnout.

    @JJ

    Howdy. Come on in, the water snark is fine.

  145. 145.

    Peale

    @? Martin: your u know who they should take it out on? White nationalists. those “missing white voters” who the white nationalists convinced them were just waiting to come out because Hillary was so popular and all you needed to do was hate Mexicans and you’d gain more white voters than the democrats would gain. Those racist white missing voters are still missing. They are not registering in the millions. They are not overcoming their losses. (Hell, they might not even be racist!) They may exist, but they sure don’t feel the existential crisis.

  146. 146.

    Villago Delenda Est

    @Pest Bog Mummy, Frakensteinbeck: The problem is that the media will amplify these incidents, as they do crime, in a routine fashion to gather ratings. The fact that it’s more likely you’ll be involved in a traffic accident than you will be in a terrorist attack or a violent incident, for that matter, is not taken into effect.

  148. 148.

    Lizzy L

    @Anne Laurie: Nice post, AL. I appreciate your putting it up — but I’m going to bed. I’ll check back in the morning. And yeah, Ross Douthat is a dork. His assumption of expertise on All Things Catholic drives me more than a little nuts.

  149. 149.

    ? Martin

    @the Conster, la Citoyenne:

    The cleavage as I see it is educated v. non-educated whites, and married v. single. Educated/single whites are waking up and joining the non-white culture bit by bit, since they tend to live in, and identify with, urban milieus against the white supremacist rural/exurban religious crackers. Electorally, 10% of white men switching party ID will make the GOP and their white Christian base irrelevant nationally, and forever until they figure out how to not be racist as an organizing principle. Which won’t happen.

    I think that cleavage overlaps pretty significantly with what I’m describing. College educated and single are MUCH less likely to identify as Christian. And college educated that do identify are much more likely to have moved to urban areas where they are not such a distinct majority. I’m in a highly educated community with relatively few latinos considering it’s California, but it’s incredibly diverse – asians, middle eastern, european, muslims, jews, etc. You absolutely cannot assume someone shares your white Christian viewpoint. As such, they tend to lose their loyalty to that goal of cultural domination. That’s a big part of why Virginia turns blue and why NC is turning blue – same trend. But you look at the states where the GOP are either strong or growing stronger – they’re all straight-up white Christian majority states – that shift for WV from blue to red. Conversely, states like Texas and Georgia are on the bubble. It’s going to take them going over before those entrenched powers get toppled, but eventually they will. Took CA a while after going over to get there.

  151. 151.

    Keith P.

    So there are still two bad Trump stories that are supposed to come out this week, right? Can’t remember who tweeted it, but my recollection was that it’s worse than the groping stories.

  152. 152.

    CaseyL

    I’m thinking about countries where the dominant majority became a minority, not just demographically but also in terms of political and economic power. With the added factor of the new demographic, political and economic majority being people who had been marginalized and exploited.

    There aren’t too many that I can think of, and of the ones I can think of, none of them turned out very well. The change wasn’t peaceful. At all. Israel, the states that came out of Yugoslavia, and maybe India when Pakistan split off from it, and then Bangladesh from Pakistan (if I have the history right).

    Does anyone know of a country where the transition happened more or less peacefully – and was still intact afterwards?

    It’s hard to imagine the same thing happening here as happened in India, but things like that only “don’t happen” until they do.

  153. 153.

    Villago Delenda Est

    @Peale: Donald told a rally in Florida yesterday that anyone who was not registered to vote should leave.

    He had a chance to encourage his unregistered supporters to get registered and vote for him, and he’s so negative and hateful he insulted them instead. Contrast with every Hillary rally where she encourages the unregistered to get registered.

  154. 154.

    Cain

    @CaseyL:

    There aren’t too many that I can think of, and of the ones I can think of, none of them turned out very well. The change wasn’t peaceful. At all. Israel, the states that came out of Yugoslavia, and maybe India when Pakistan split off from it, and then Bangladesh from Pakistan (if I have the history right).

    Well Hindus always were a majority in India.. you might be referring to Hindus being minorities in Pakistan perhaps?

  155. 155.

    ? Martin

    @CaseyL: I don’t think that applies here. Yes, whites are fading demographically, but Democrats are picking up a reasonable coalition of them. Christians are fading demographically, but that also includes a lot of people leaving the faith. The core bloc of white christians are 60 and older. It’s not like the majority block is being overrun through immigration or border changes or war or forced politics or anything like that, rather that they’re just dying off. So though this majority is shifting to minority status, it’s not an abrupt, unjust change.

    And we’ve been through these transitions before in other ways. White christians were represented by both parties for most of our history but you saw at the end of the last century the farmer coalition which was a majority group decline as agriculture industrialized (not unlike the automation of manufacturing today) and you saw the rise of the farmer-labor coalition. The farmers sort of rebelled in the sense that the Civil War centered in large part around the slave industrialization of agriculture, but more generally they didn’t – they just formed a new alliance as they lost power.

    I think how agitated this transition is depends a lot on who is leading them. If it’s a Romney or a Kasich or a Rubio, it’ll be fine. If it’s a Trump, it could be ugly and violent because his personality traits are being adopted by the masses.

  156. 156.

    Calouste

    @CaseyL: South Africa had a relatively smooth transition. Although the whites were never a demographic majority and probably still are the economic majority.

  157. 157.

    Bess

    @Keith P.:

    It would be nice to see a couple of post 2010 Donald victims come forth first. Someone very credible who can put lie to “I’m a different person now”.

    And then drop the next bomb.

  158. 158.

    Procopius

    @Kay:

    He’d go right to the wingnut welfare circuit but at least we wouldn’t have to listen to him.

    News flash: I’m not gonna have to listen to him anyway. I’m not gonna watch the idiotic “debate,” either. Life is too short as it is.

  160. 160.

    JR in WV

    @Mike J:

    Thought experiment: Why would Fox News publish this poll? Perhaps to depress Democratic turnout, since Hillary “has this in the bag”.

    Their results appear to be pretty conclusive, week-by-week improvement of Clinton/Kaine numbers from 45% to 49% while Trump/Pence declines from about 46% to 41%, for a Clinton/Kaine 8 point lead.

    But we already know there are multiple problems with Faux News polling, from poor selection to poor “adjustments” to actual results when they try to fix their poor voter selection. Not very meaningful to me.

    Intended to make Republicans vote harder and Democrats less likely to show up and wait.

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