JUST NOW @realDonaldTrump SAYS @HillaryClinton should take DRUG TEST before final presidential debate #nhpolitics #nh1news pic.twitter.com/cyJICakz6A
— Paul Steinhauser (@steinhauserNH1) October 15, 2016
Hillary Clinton should take Trump up on his pre-debate drug test challenge. Let's see which candidate is on drugs. https://t.co/jR3vM1FC2S
— Josh Barro (@jbarro) October 15, 2016
Was just re-reading an old Agatha Christie mystery where a rich, dishonest businessman is murdered by one of his kids, before he can dissipate the family fortune as a result of suffering from “general paralysis of insanity“. That diagnosis has fallen out of general use, because it’s the result of third-stage syphilis, and (for the moment) we’ve got drugs to forestall its progression. But maybe Trump wasn’t kidding when he referred to his 70s-era sexual predations as “my personal Vietnam”…
Those rumors Trump’s been on uppers for decades? Given his attack that Hillary’s on drugs, nearly full confirmation Mr Projection uses them
— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) October 16, 2016
This was actually really dumb by Trump. Gives Clinton surrogates license to push the sniffling/cocaine line. https://t.co/5veAwWCJje
— Josh Barro (@jbarro) October 15, 2016
"i'll take a drug test if you take an IQ test" — Senator Fritz Hollings to Henry McMaster, 1986 Senate Debate https://t.co/8s96gaLcel
— Wyeth Ruthven (@wyethwire) October 15, 2016
The problem with doing a drug test on Donald Trump is that's probably not his real hair.
— Josh Barro (@jbarro) October 15, 2016
Full bit of Trump suggesting that Hillary Clinton is taking drugs to prep for the next debate: pic.twitter.com/JZuvprd6nS
— Sopan Deb (@SopanDeb) October 15, 2016
redshirt
America! Land of the free! Home of the brave!
SiubhanDuinne, liberal mob enforcer bitch
He’s . . .
Just . . .
What . . .
I can’t . . .
The everloving blue-eyed fuck is he even talking?
scav
Will the drug panal include viagra? That one should be news-worthy
Major Major Major Major
@SiubhanDuinne, liberal mob enforcer bitch: Three more weeks. We can do it.
Rathskeller
The man projects like an opera singer. He is guilty of every sin.
sukabi
Fucker’s delusional…comparing himself to an athlete…athlete in what, the 100 yard snort?
Mary G
It may take me until election day to fill out this damn California ballot, but I filled in the box for Hillary and Tim. And Applegate. I just like looking at the empty boxes next to Trump, Pence, and Issa’s names.
CZanne
A colleague of mine made an interesting connection yesterday: one of the issues with narcissism is that the narcissist often has a diminished theory of mind, and so has a limited ability to recognize the feelings and motivations of others, and to attribute agency to others. Basically, we’re all NPCs in the narcissist’s world. The mechanics of this mean that narcissists are almost always attributing their own thoughts, feelings and reactions to others. Colleague called it the “I’m rubber and you’re glue” response. We were talking specifically about strategies to handle the problem of narcissistic parental over-investment (it is October, we’ve only had our new students for 8 weeks, we’re starting to get the helicopter parent calls and emails — this week’s doozy was a parent demanding to be added to our internal Slack channel) but narcissistic behavior tends to be more uniform than not.
SiubhanDuinne, liberal mob enforcer bitch
Mike Pence, profile in courage.
Villago Delenda Est
@sukabi: Well, he thinks hanging out at Studio 54 in the 70’s is the same thing as a tour in ‘Nam, so, yes, he’s, um, slightly delusional. I’ll stick with that. Slightly. As in Hugely. Bigley.
Arclite
Trump pops v1agra like M & Ms, I’m sure.
I’m sure Hillz is only on legal substances. She’s too straightlaced and establishment.
Speaking of establishment, I’m sure Hill will be a fine president, but not a transformative one. We’ve honestly lost our democracy, we’re an oligarchy now with government legislation passing exclusively for monied interests regardless of party. How can we get it back? How can we:
1. Remove the influence of corporate and elite money in politics?
2. Address the widest wealth gap since the robber barons?
3. End the War on Terror.
4. Fix the gerrymandering issue such that the house and senate better represent the voting population.
Hill might be willing to tackle some of these issues with a Dem congress, but we’ll never get enough seats to overcome a filibuster. I just don’t see a path for fixing what’s so broken.
Darrin Ziliak (formerly glocksman)
Hillary should say yes.
To my knowledge that’s her real hair, so a hair sample should suffice.
In Donald’s case I doubt that’s his real hair, and even if it is, who knows how the chemicals he uses to color it would affect a drug screen.
In Trump’s case, just hand him an empty 2-liter pop bottle and say ‘fill it up’.
All kidding aside, there’s only one candidate* that exhibits signs of either current drug use or withdrawal symptoms, and it ain’t Hillary Clinton.
*Not counting Gary Johnson.
Major Major Major Major
@Arclite: Everybody knows she’s on that Parkinson’s med Provigil. Drudge told me so.
NotMax
On the path to digging up Vince Foster and propping his body up in the front row Wednesday night.
An enterprising menswear mogul can clean up by rushing a line of designer straitjackets onto the market.
Joyce H
I’m convinced Trump is on something. All that guff about him not drinking or doing drugs? He means street drugs. He gets his stuff complete with a ‘prescription’ from his doctor feelgood. So it’s not ‘drugs’, it’s MEDICINE!
Brachiator
It’s after 3 am on the East Coast. No crazy Twitter messages from Trump. I wonder if he is resting up for an appearance on the Sunday pundit shows?
Botsplainer
Sadly (or maybe happily, for me), I’ll be on a flight to Beijing Wednesday night, and will then be behind The Great Firewall, so I may not know a thing about Wednesday night’s debate until I return Sunday.
Darrin Ziliak (formerly glocksman)
@Brachiator: He’s going through the shakes right now, so he can’t hold his phone steady long enough to post.
opiejeanne
@Mary G: I got the voters pamphlet for King County, Washington yesterday and I’ll swear the thing weighs over a pound.
We have a crackpot RW nut job whose goal seems to be filling elections with his worthless, horrible propositions. I haven’t checked yet to see how many of his pet projects are on this ballot.
mike in dc
Clinton’s surrogates should suggest a different test for Mr. Trump. A polygraph test. Ask him about all of these women making accusations. Ask whether he’s really under audit. Ask whether he’s ever said the N-word on the Apprentice. Etc.
CaseyL
It’s more bullying and attempted humiliation: Trump wants Hillary to have to pee into a cup. Preferably on live TV.
I don’t watch TV news, and have been following the debates exclusively via live blogging and the color commentary here. I believe that has kept me sane.
@opiejeanne: You mean Eyman? He’ll keep at it as long as someone’s giving him money to keep at it. I want to know who the hell is giving him the money.
Botsplainer
@NotMax:
“New TrumpSuits – when a mere poorly designed, shapeless blue sack of a suit and overly long fat guy’s tie won’t do…”
JJ
I’ve wondered about syphilis. I’ve also wondered if Ivanka has signed a NDA.
Villago Delenda Est
@mike in dc: Polygraphs are notoriously unreliable…which is why they’re not admissible in criminal cases. The thing about them is, honest people are nervous, therefore are more likely to fail a polygraph. Pathological liars, like Our Donald, have no problem passing them.
Joyce H
@mike in dc:
Trump could pass a poly. Polygraphs don’t detect truth or lies, they detect a person’s physiological reactions to saying something they know to be untrue. Not everyone has those physiological reactions to lying. People without a sense of shame or any feeling of remorse, and with a very tenuous grasp of reality, would pass a polygraph with flying colors.
sukabi
For fucks sake…NBC just aired a PSA for voting… there’s a new reality show, it’s called voting…blah, blah, blah…the more you know…
Villago Delenda Est
@Botsplainer: Donald can’t get a suit that fits because every reputable tailor in the Tri-State area won’t accept his business, because they know they’ll be stiffed.
sukabi
@opiejeanne: thought he got banned from legislative fuckery.
md S Oregon
He’s hopped on diet supplements. At least that’s what I read on the innertubes in S Oregon.
opiejeanne
@CaseyL: Yes, that’s the name. I couldn’t remember, but the guy’s a menace. I just looked and I don’t see his sticky fingerprints on any of the measures that made it onto the ballot.
I’d love to know who is funding that guy.
Darrin Ziliak (formerly glocksman)
@mike in dc: Vertiaserum. Brewed by Potions Master Severus Snape.
Botsplainer
@Villago Delenda Est:
His suits look like they come off the clearance rack at Steinmart.
Chris T.
@Villago Delenda Est: It’s not just that, it’s also that his body is in such bad shape that he needs the suit to paper it over. This shows now and then when he moves around.
Edit to add: I’m not trying to fat-shame him. I’m fat myself. I just don’t try to hide it with a suit.
sukabi
@Botsplainer: straight off the ship from jhyna.
BillinGlendaleCA
@opiejeanne: Our voter’s “pamphlet” is 224 pages.
opiejeanne
@sukabi: Did he? I don’t know about it if he’s banned. It looks like his last initiative that made it onto the ballot was in 2015, and maybe I missed one that he was involved with on this ballot. I need to sit down with the pamphlet and study the issues.
amk
peak wingnut. finally.
BillinGlendaleCA
@Botsplainer: So you’re going to Jynia? Careful, they’re really good at making deals over there, they’re killers, buleive me.
opiejeanne
@BillinGlendaleCA: I don’t know how long ours is this time, but I think the presidential candidates start on page 68.
Mary G
Hillary should bring a little cup that seems to be full of pee, preferably not too well sealed, and hand it to him instead of shaking his hand at the beginning of the debate. His germophobic meltdown would be great for ratings.
mike in dc
@amk:
I hope so. The Wingularity is a terrifying/annoying prospect.
sukabi
@opiejeanne: think he did several years ago, but maybe his timeout is up…
hellslittlestangel
@md S Oregon: A 260 pound diet pill addict? I guess it’s possible.
TriassicSands
“…Trump offered no evidence in support of his claim(s)…”
The nine words that appear in almost every story about Trump.
Dmbeaster
His crazy description of Clinton starting out hyped and then crashing actually describes himself. Just more projection. That whole passage is a bizarre adlib of crazy quilt thought impulses rambling for crowd reaction. Just chart it.
Resting (echo of she is weak and ill), debate prep, who needs five days of deabate prep?, should already be ready (like Trump, who needs no prep), she is supposed to be smart, but talking to FBI, no tape recordings or swearing, Martha Stewart did not get that deal, she did not know 39 times, so debate prep for bad memory, but actually getting pumped up, like athletes, I beat 17 senators and governors, she beat Bernie but he was screwed, Wikileaks, but we are atheletes, who get drug tested, we should be drug tested, she was up then down at last debate, couldnt get to car, we should take drug test, i’m willing.
I would guess 2 minutes before he said drug testing he did not know he would say it or plan on maybe saying it.
Just deranged.
Ian
Sounds like he really understands what he is talking about.
sukabi
@Ian: think that’s his “just putting it out there” “some people say”…it gets it into the conversation, then his shit for brains surrogates and followers amp it up and spread it like a virus…
Ninedragonspot
@Botsplainer: I’m behind the great firewall right now, in scenic Zhengzhou. So the obstacles aren’t insurmountable. Guardian, but no NYT.
Botsplainer
@BillinGlendaleCA:
Outbound from Chicago Wednesday afternoon, home by Sunday. It’s a bit of a lark.
Botsplainer
@Ninedragonspot:
Thought about the VPN route, but am reluctant…
opiejeanne
@Mary G: That would be worth it just to watch him have a fit.
I suggested she set down a package of TicTacs on her lectern at the beginning of the second debate.
Ian
@mike in dc:
I have no doubt he is under audit. He cheated on his taxes, he should be. It is similar to the IRS investigating conservative groups that fleeced their donors. When you lie to the feds, you deserve an audit.
sukabi
@opiejeanne: I can’t find it on a quick google, but he’s had recurring investigations for mail fraud and misappropriation of funds…there are actually current investigation(s)…
It may have been something I thought should have happened to him 10 – 15 years ago after the first mail fraud / misuse of monies + disasterous legislation…
opiejeanne
@sukabi: We’ve only lived in Washington for 6 years, but I heard about him before the first election we voted in.
Ninedragonspot
@Botsplainer: I have a couple VPNs, but the wifi at the American hotel chain I’m staying at (rhymes with Milton) seems to have a pretty capable one.
Soylent Green
Hey, anyone who has expertise with the Cyber — is there a way to count the actual number of times the word “Trump” has been typed in the comments here? I’m assuming it would be somewhere in the range of Avogadro’s number.
JGabriel
@Arclite:
Hillary Clinton will be the first woman President. Even if only one other woman gets elected to President in the following 70 years, Clinton will have been transformative – because that will be someone who may not have known she could be President without Hillary Clinton’s example.
Steeplejack (phone)
@CZanne:
What are NPCs?
JGabriel
Joyce H:
That he snorts?
JGabriel
@Steeplejack (phone):
Non-Player Characters, in video games or role-playing games.
Steeplejack (phone)
@JGabriel:
Thanks. Didn’t get that from the context.
gene108
@Ian:
An audit does not mean you are guilty of anything. You may have knowingly or unknowingly understated income or overstated expenses or mixed personal and business funds and expenses. As long as you are trying to emulate a Wesley Snipes, you pay some money, penalty and interest.
Just the mere fact Trump is under audit is pretty meaningless, in determining if he is or is not a tax cheat.
This is why not releasing his tax returns because of being under audit is such a weak argument. Those are already recorded transactions. Either he recorded them correctly or he did not. Showing them to the public changes nothing.
gene108
@gene108:
Should read “not trying to emulate Wesley Snipes”
Joyce H
Hey, does anyone else think that Trump is going to add teleprompter smashing as a regular part of his rally schtick? The crowd loved it, after all.
BillinGlendaleCA
@Joyce H: Worked for The Who.
CZanne
@hellslittlestangel: sure. My grandmother spent most of the 60s and 70s on Mama’s Little Pick-me-ups. Never had a waist smaller than 38 inches or bust circumference below 50 inches. (Vintage plus size clothing is rather valuable, and the time spent inventorying it meant it fetched a nice price at the estate sale.) Until the day she went into long-term care, she never drank less than 6 Cokes, never had fewer than three generous desserts, and generally ate like a Midwestern farmer (mashed potatoes under the chicken and dumplings, breaded pork tenderloin sandwiches, sweet corn pudding – see any rural Indiana church or Masonic cookbook), and like most women of her age and class, didn’t exercise. A high carb, high fat, high calorie diet will defeat any pill, especially if the eating is primarily emotional or heavily social or both. The pills helped her maintain her weight at 250 or so, instead of the likely 380-400. (I also suspect she had ADD, in which case the speed just kicked her brain into the proper gear.)
Sugar, fat and salt in the right combinations hit the pleasure centers just like speed or heroin. She was always deeply unhappy. She spent most of the 80s, 90s and Naughties as an unstable Type II, with “good” blood sugar days in the 250 range. Now that she’s in care (stroke, with aphasia and no executive function), her blood sugar is stable at 80-110.
CZanne
@Steeplejack (phone): in context, NPCs are the scripted characters who dispense plot cookies and only behave per rigid programming. See also Red Shirts (not the local commenter), Spear Carriers, Living Props. If the neurolinguistic theory of mind hypothesis of NPD has validity, there’s a good chance that narcissists live in a low-level state of solipsism, and are unconvinced the rest of us actually exist. Which is why contradicting or challenging one is so deeply offensive to their sense of self — it’s like having the talking head on the news suddenly cock their head, frown, and say, “Steeplejack, what are you still doing on the Internet at this hour? and put down that cake. It’ll give you indigestion and you didn’t hit the gym today.” It just violates the order of their universe.
Geoduck
@opiejeanne: Re: Eyman’s funding sources, you can get some of the history from this 2015 article on the Seattle Post-Intelligencer website. Summing up, he’s had a handful of sugar-daddies that have kept him in business over the years.
adorable trnc
I like Barro, but why does he think Donald the Drug Addict would be any more forthcoming with a drug test than with anything else, even though he called for it? He’s welcome to lead by example, but every suggestion by him that Clinton should do something he wants her to do should be met with a call for his tax returns, a real medical statement not written by Willy Wonka, and a call to release all court transcripts for any lawsuits that have ever been filed against him.
Iowa Old Lady
@Botsplainer: Wow, that’s two big time shifts in a short time. Hope the trip goes well.
Steeplejack (tablet)
@CZanne:
I understand the concept, just didn’t get the acronym.
p.a.
Fuckin’ Democrats. We can rig a national Presidential election but can’t rig Senate, House, state or local elections??!!
Kay
According to (latest) polling, some 43% of GOP faithful and GOP leaners are still supporting Donald Trump despite everything that has come out in the last month.
In (some) swing states it will be close. So, if you can do anything, even if it;s getting 5 “sporadic” voters you know to the polls IMO you should do that. I know “sporadic” voters are a giant pain in the ass but since they apparently need a personal “reason” to spend 20 minutes voting just go along with them.
Here’s an interesting piece about the split between white working class and men and women. White working class women are more liberal than the men. This has been my (anecdotal) experience where I live. We specifically used this split to win a school levy vote- we targeted white working class women and we won. It’s only 7000 people but still.
Maybe we shouldn’t have been treating them like a monolith- maybe the women are the key because the split didn’t start with Trump- it started with McCain and Romney.
Maybe we;ve been making the same mistake pundits make- we ignored the women in a group of voters- assumed the men spoke for them.
Kay
It would make sense that working class women would be more bothered by Trump’s workplace behavior because working class are the most vulnerable at work to any kind of exploitation– they have no leverage at these crappy jobs. They’re more vulnerable to sexual harassment at work than professional or degreed women- they have less power in the workplace across the board.
Iowa Old Lady
A young woman I know online is from a working-class family and yesterday said she and her parents won’t vote for Trump, but will vote for Clinton only if she gets a miners benefits bill passed between now and election day. This is a person of goodwill who knows more than I do about lots of things.
adorable trnc
@p.a.: I know, right? I mean, what would it have been just to give that extra little push to the poll workers for those races? 50% coupons for abortions? Cover the ACLU membership?
amk
with barely 3 weeks left for election, the carnival barker takes to early morning twitter potshots at the fucking SNL.
Kay
I swear though there is something fucked up and manipulative about these “undecided” voters. My middle son voted for Sanders in the primary. He’s not happy Sanders lost. He got his absentee ballot and brought it over to ask me about the judicial races. Christ almighty he was still toying with voting for Stein or Johnson right up until the last minute. He has no earthly idea who Stein or Johnson are but for some unknown reason he wants to pretend he’s “supporting” EITHER of them. He voted for Clinton but I feel like these are the people who adjust all their mirrors and rummage around in their purse while you’re waiting for them to pull out of a parking space. It’s passive aggressive.
amk
the deadbeat sucks in every issue including campaign spending.
Percysowner
@Arclite:
AFAIK, the filibuster isn’t constitutionally decreed. It’s a Senate rule. If the Dems want to they can can get rid of it. Now that’s dangerous, because if the Repubs retake control, then one more stop has been removed. What they CAN do is make the filibuster more onerous. Go back to making it continual speech that can be interrupted to shut it down. Make shutting it down after X hours a rule. Only allow X filibusters per session. Neither party wants to lose the ability to filibuster, and I do worry about the ramifications, but something needs to be done to change this logjam.
Kay
@amk:
Because it doesn’t matter what he says or does. 40 to 45 to 48% will vote for him anyway. The hard lesson of this election is a little less than half of voters have no problem with smearing black people, insulting and defaming Latinos and demonizing Muslims. Oh, and the cherry on top is they they also have no problem with physically assaulting women.
Kay
@amk:
Polling today say 70% of Trump voters believe he assaulted all those women. They either approve of it or don’t consider it relevant. That’s the Right-leaning electorate. It’s who they are.
Kay
Some GOP lawyers are coming out against Trump’s discrediting US elections. They could show they mean it by volunteering as election observers in swing states, to report if Trump voters or activists are intimidating AA voters.
NorthLeft12
I was just reading the Boston Globe article on the mounting hysteria of Deadbeat Donald’s supporters regarding the election being rigged. Near the end of the article the writers [Tracy Jan and Matt Viser] show the following three examples of previous election controversies;
1. 1960; JFK’s father buys Chicago for his son. Allegedly.
2. 2000; Supreme Court stops recount and hands election to Bush. Uhh yes. This did happen.
3. 2008 on; Birtherism? WTF?
Here is their take on 2000;
Ya know I don’t mean to parse an otherwise interesting article, but the inclusion of 2000 seems forced and an example of when Dems complained that the system was rigged versus two Repub examples that one election was bought off, and the other was …… what? Birtherism? WTF?!!?
BOTH SIDES DO IT!
Percysowner
@Kay: I almost cried I was so happy when Hillary was nominated. I’ve been waiting for woman to have a shot at being President since I was a little girl. I am also painfully aware that a MALE Democratic President would be running away with this election. It’s misogyny combined with years and years of Clinton hatred. I wish I thought that once we get past the election and people see how Hillary governs, knock wood, that things would settle down. Honestly I don’t know if they will.
When Obama was elected I was worried he wouldn’t make it through his term. I was afraid of assassination. I didn’t think I would have to worry so much if Hillary got elected, but after this campaign, I’m back to worrying. The Secret Service will have to be on their toes for the next 4-8 (please let it be 8) years.
NorthLeft12
@Kay: Unfortunately, as I understand it, the Dems have gone to court and then still had to have lawyers available at some polling stations because intimidation is a regular occurrence.
Asking them to show up and support this effort is an excellent idea. Put up or shut up.
RSA
Obese 70-year-old athletes, right. I think I could be competitive in that sport, whatever it is.
rikyrah
@SiubhanDuinne, liberal mob enforcer bitch:
Exactly ??
Jeffro
While Hillz absolutely has to win, the prospect of endless articles like this has been wondering if I need to take a year off from reading op-eds.
A sample of this foolishness:
No, Dana Milbank, Trump’s rise does not have much to do with the first dozen things you mention here…you can start with “the fury and racial animus of the tea party and the birthers” and stop with “GOP leaders too timid to tamp down the excesses”. Full stop.
On top of that, EJ Dionne has a nonsense article up about how progressives share some of the blame for Trump’s rise, and how it’s on us to reach out to his hateful supporters. Fuck that. Maybe back in March, but not now – anyone who still supports Trump after everything we’ve learned about the ‘man’ clearly has no principles whatsoever and I don’t owe those folks a damn thing.
amk
@Kay: the abc/wapo polls never had her leading by more than 5, while all the other recent polls show her leading by 7 to 11 points. yet another emmessem ‘poll’ to maintain the horserace!!! bs
Kay
@Percysowner:
I drove one of the rental vans that the media ride in for a Presidential motorcade in Toledo in ’12. Campaigns ask local people if they want to drive so I went and drove a van. You have to get there 2 hours early so I watched law enforcement set up and chatted with them. The protection Obama gets is extraordinary. I have never seen anything like it. Bomb sniffing dogs, interstate shut down, a week of planning prior to his arrival- II don’t know what else they could do to keep him safe other than never letting him out of the White House.
NorthLeft12
@Percysowner: I was listening to a CBC Radio doc done in West Virginia that dug into the Trump movement there. A comment I heard repeated a number of times was that the political situation in the states the last eight years was very nasty and divisive. A few of the supporters interviewed thought it would be even worse with Hillary Clinton as President, and thus they wanted Deadbeat Donald instead.
I know I have read that reasoning in other articles too. The sheer stupidity of that statement stuns me. It validates the strategy that the Congressional Repubs have been executing these last eight years.
I am not sure what you do with voters that ignorant and obtuse. Good luck.
Jeffro
And while we’re at it: why is it always on Dems to be the party of reconciliation and outreach? If the GOP and its oh-so-angry voters want a seat at the table, they need to CHILL. OUT. and start acting like citizens instead of civilians in an occupied country. Things change – get over it and work within this great democracy to make your case. Tell your leaders and your media to quit lying to you. Quit pretending the country is going to hell. Quit demonizing people who are working hard, raising their kids, participating in civic life, and gladly paying their fair share in taxes. It’s a great life if you drop the constant hate.
Kay
@amk:
I keep reminding myself third party had 5% in polling in 12 so 6 isn’t at all unusual. Libertarian ended up with 1%.
rikyrah
@Kay:
Yes. This is who they are. Stop making excuses for them
Kay
@NorthLeft12:
Democrats have volunteer lawyers in every county in Ohio and have since 2004. There are hundreds of them. A bigger regional meeting prior to an election (08 and 12) will 100 or so lawyers attending.
Republicans should join us!
BR
@amk:
No, I don’t believe that — they’re a high quality poll, and denying individual polls we don’t like is a bad idea.
Anyway, what matters now is ground game — signing everyone we know to volunteer to help the campaign. Kay’s right — dragging unlikely voters to the polls can make all the difference, and there seem to be plenty of folks now who think Clinton will easily win so why bother, when that’s far from true (she will only win if those who support her turn out, just as in any election). I want us to put her over 50%.
rikyrah
@Kay:
They will not intimidate Black voters. I say this a lot, but it needs to be said:
NOBODY is playing with them.
This is not 1948.
NorthLeft12
@Jeffro:
Bolded it. There is no reaching out to these people. Basically it will be on the Dems to implement their platform as best they can and let the results speak for themselves. They will help Trump supporters whether the Trumpies want it or not. Dems will make your country a better place to live without their help. They may never appreciate it, or recognize it, but IMO there is nothing that the Trumpies want to be done that is remotely a part of the Dem/Clinton platform.
amk
@BR: they were at the bottom of the pile in 2012. a high quality poll, indeed.
Kay
@NorthLeft12:
The volunteer lawyers on the Democratic side are trained- they attend meetings and learn the rules. In Ohio, they “enter” in the county and then again in the polling place- they sign a piece of paper with their own name and it’s a record. They don’t hang around polling places harassing people because it’s on them if they break the rules.
If Republican lawyers are genuinely concerned about Trump voters and activists and paid people harassing voters they can join us, officially. They can put their name on an entry, like we do.
debbie
@amk:
The ad he ran during SNL was absolute bullshit.
Kay
@NorthLeft12:
If I harass a Trump voter or break a rule in a polling place I’m easy to find- I filed as an election observer and I’m a lawyer. so I’m subject to any laws that apply AND any ethical constraints thru the state supreme court not to mention that I also practice and live here so I’m not going anywhere.
I’m accountable. The Trump volunteer harassers are not. If this were a good faith effort to “fight voter fraud” they would enter officially and learn and follow the rules, instead of threatening voters.
Matt McIrvin
@amk: Uh-oh, Rasmussen has Trump winning by two again!! (Lately the pattern is that they seem to do this in every second poll.)
Kay
It’s all over Twitter than an elite GOP lawyer is concerned about Trump calling the legitimacy of US elections into question.
Just a reminder that the op ed page of the WSJ and President Bush’s US Attorneys did this for years.
Top Republicans have been claiming that black people are committing felony voter fraud for the last ten years.
NOW they object, because this stupid fucking cretin has taken over their Party and they are ashamed because he reflects poorly ON THEM. It’s about THEM, not voters.
I’m glad they finally saw the light but I can’t help but notice it’s still ABOUT THEM.
NoraLenderbee
I drove from Albany, NY to Bennington, VT on Friday. I saw *one* Trump sign. No Clinton signs. It was at night, though.
My extended family (all East Coast liberals) is 100% no-Trump, and mostly voting for HRC. However, several of the men think Clinton is a liar, etc., etc., and at least one isn’t voting for either Pres. candidate. None of the women feel the same way. It’s a clear gender divide.
Amir Khalid
@Iowa Old Lady:
Is you friend aware that Hillary won’t actually be in office for two and a half months after election day?
Kay
IMO, 4 way is bullshit. They didn’t rely on 4 way in ’12 and Johnson had 5% in polling in ’12 on election day. No one cared.
So 10 points in a 2 way makes me feel better because 4 way is bullshit that doesn’t matter.
Joel
@Ninedragonspot: You can use a VPN to circumvent the firewall. Common knowledge and in fact it seems like the Chinese government practically promotes it to foreign tourists.
BR
@Kay:
I don’t think it’s total BS. There really are more third party voters this year. I’m hoping for my old prediction to pan out — 50-40-8-2 as the final popular vote distribution. Though it’s looking like McMullin may pull 1% through big turnout in Utah and Idaho.
Joel
@Kay: The demo arguments drive me fucking crazy. They are granular as hell.
At the very least, there should be gender distinctions (as you point out) AND age distinctions. Make those splits and you’ll find that the “white working class” is far from monolithic.
debbie
@Kay:
I don’t think it’s BS either. Evan McMullin’s whole point is to stop Clinton from getting 270 electoral votes and throwing it to the House.
Matt McIrvin
@debbie: But the only states where McMullin is likely to get any significant support are Utah and Idaho, so the only candidate he has any chance of taking electoral votes from is Trump. Clinton could never carry those states in a two-way race. He has to hope that some unrelated event causes Clinton’s support to collapse so that it’s nearly tied, then take the crucial winning electoral votes from Trump.
Kay
@debbie:
How, though? Winning Utah? Utah was not one of our states anyway. Idaho wasn’t either. They haven’t explained why Johnson is a huge deal polling at 7% when he was never mentioned when he was polling at 5% in 2012.
Democrats will freak out because that’s what Democrats do but 7 still isn’t that much bigger than 5 and Utah still isn’t a D state. Those facts remain.
BR
@debbie:
I’m not sure McMullin is really going to do that either — I think he’s hoping to run as a major candidate in 2020.
debbie
@Matt McIrvin:
You don’t think he’ll cut into the conservatives who would vote for Clinton just to stop Trump (instead of not voting at all)?
Matt McIrvin
@Amir Khalid: A large chunk of the US electorate really have no idea how the government works or how laws are made. It’s a problem for accountability.
chromeagnomen
wouldn’t matter if they did take a drug test, if the results weren’t as the donald liked, obviously the results would have been RIGGED!1!!!1.
Matt McIrvin
@debbie: He will, but I don’t think very many of those people exist in the first place. There are certainly some in Utah, but Hillary Clinton has never broken 30% in polling averages there, even before McMullin got in. She had no chance of carrying those states without him.
Kay
@Joel:
They’ll figure it out. This actually started with Romney. Remember the “nail techs and waitresses” the Romney donors said were voting for Obama?
I genuinely think it goes back to the idea that male voters matter more than women voters and white male voters matter more than any subset of white voters. These things are stubborn to dislodge.
Kay
The other thing we learned this cycle is Christian conservatives, as voters, are not at all issue based.
Democrats don’t have to compromise with them anymore. They don’t give a shit about policy anyway.
Kay
@BR:
They’re getting the 2 way number by pushing “undecideds” to declare for one of the 2 major Party candidates. That’s where that comes from. If they’ll do that they’re not solid 3rd party and it’s the usual group of people who play this stupid “undecided” game.
Tenar Darell
@Iowa Old Lady: Oh wow, how? Apparently these voters don’t understand how a bill becomes law when the person isn’t an elected official? Do they expect Clinton to campaign for the bill or something, or is it more they think she already has the power to do something before they elect her?
I suppose my question boils down to: is this ignorance, or is it magical thinking?
Doug R
@Percysowner: Yup. Making them actually be there speechifying about why the legislation is so terrible rather than this filing a motion. I don’t like secret holds either,maybe a time limit on those as well. It’d probably be good to have time limits on filibusters but I’d like to see how the other rule changes would work out first.
WereBear
@Kay: True: they are pithed frog, reflex voters. The very issue they used as an excuse to not vote for Gore in 2000 (because he was Bill Clinton’s VP) is something they brush aside when Trump does worse.
Kay
“Serious” conservatives are thrilled with McMullin because he’s face-saving. They’re embarrassed by Trump. Because all US elections are about appeasing Republicans, I’m sure we’ll hear a ton about him but that doesn’t mean he represents anything large.
BR
@Kay:
Maybe that’s true in general, but there really are a number of third party young voters who will vote Clinton if forced in a poll but nobody is going to be forcing them when they’re voting. But many of them are in safe states so it won’t matter much.
amk
trumpigs. fuck the first amendment.
Kay
@WereBear:
The fact that the media won’t cover Clinton’s enthusiastic voters pisses me off. I read some of them on Twitter and they’re claiming they interview Trump voters more because it’s an unusual freak show. Except it’s not. Trump voters sound exactly like the Tea Party, and we heard almost exclusively from them in 2010.
Matt McIrvin
@Kay: Your comments made me curious, so I tried looking up multi-way polling in 2012. On that page there’s one Reason poll from September where Johnson was polling at 6%, but aside from that he seems to be more in the 3-4% range, lower in four- and five-way polls. His actual share was about 1%, of course.
On the other side of the coin, Gallup polling for Nader in 2000 (also around 3-4%) was not too far off the final results, and they actually slightly underestimated Perot in his 1990s runs (he only got 8% in 1996). It seems to me that if a third-party candidate gets enough support and headlines that the big pollsters actually pay attention, the polls may not be exaggerating their support.
debbie
@amk:
Because Democracy!
amk
@Kay: the guy, who was unheard of till a few weeks ago, is their ‘hero’? the whole conservative movement is a con game.
Jack the Second
@Kay: It’s really depressing to think about what it takes to keep you safe in the world we live in. Most of us are only alive because no one wants us dead badly enough. If someone does, a pitiful collection of guns won’t keep us safe. Nor will self-defense classes, nor will a couple of impressive looking body guards. A long driveway with “beware of dog” and “no trespassing” signs.
It takes a security cordon of hundreds of people, stretching miles and hours, to even have a chance.
Patricia Kayden
@Kay: Yet they expect us to believe that they care about the women impacted by President Clinton’s philandering from the 90s.
Patricia Kayden
@Kay: I don’t recall McMullin on the MD ballot so I doubt he’s going to make any impact except in Utah.
Peale
@Kay: yep. And in two years the press will rediscover them as we approach mid terms. And they’ll once again pin their existence on the failure of Democrats to somehow reach them. Is the turnover rate for reporters really so high that everyone was born yesterday? They are republicans. They hate the democrat. But because the aren’t wealthy, it’s assumed that this set of voters spells trouble for the Democrats.
Kay
@BR:
Well, we’ll see. We’ll be able to count the Johnson/Stein vote. I think the both sides narrative is very well-served by Johnson/Stein and that’s a real narrative this cycle. It would be okay with me if they would admit that there are enthusiastic Clinton voters while extensively documenting both Trump and 3rd Party voters, but they don’t.
The Democrats here who are most fretting over the 3rd party vote are the Democrats who didn’t support Clinton in the primary. Some of this is coming from their dislike of Clinton. They can’t imagine anyone enthusiastically supporting her or her persuading anyone.
Corner Stone
@Kay:
The voters are issue based, it’s just not entangled with any kind of core philosophy related to Christian teachings or understanding.
The Evangelical or Christian “Leaders” however, are intensely issue based. They’ve been grifting their bigoted, insular followers for multi-generations in some cases. And they know Trump has tickled their funny bone like no one has in recent history. If they spoke against him from a Christian perspective (ha!), the spigot would be turned all the way off.
a thousand flouncing lurkers (was fidelio)
@Tenar Darell: Both. They are ignorant of the process, because civics class was a long time ago, when you are even if they paid attentive n at the time. They are also prone to fall back on–call it magical thinking, or call it a childlike inventiveness–to fill in the gaps in their knowledge on any topic.
It’s not just politics; there are people who apply this to virtually everything. Because it’s simpler than making the effort to find out how something works.
Kay
This stuff is fascinating:
So, Democrats, white working class women are just about as likely to support a Democrat as white college grad men.
Seems like we spend a hell of a lot more time trying to appeal to white college grad men than we do trying to appeal to white non college women, so we might want to look at that more closely. What’s that about? Gender or class preferences? I hope not. It isn’t a pure political calculation or we would be actively seeking out white non college women, specifically. There’s some bias operating here.
MattF
@Patricia Kayden: I’ve read that McMullen is on enough ballots to add up to about 300 EVs. Word is that he could have an impact on Utah and possibly on Nevada and Arizona.
Politically, he presents himself as a standard movement conservative without racism. Says his experience in DC showed him that liberals are right about Republican racism.
Matt McIrvin
@Patricia Kayden: Here’s McMullin’s ballot access. He’s actually on the ballot in 11 states and registered as a write-in in most of the rest. I suspect Utah and Idaho are the only states where he’ll actually be a significant player. Most people who are neither Utahn nor political junkies have never heard of him.
Matt McIrvin
@MattF: McMullin is not a registered candidate at all in Nevada and is only a write-in candidate in Arizona. Write-ins essentially never get significant numbers of votes unless something extraordinarily weird is happening.
I get 84 EV for the states where McMullin is actually on the ballot (as opposed to available as a write-in).
TS
@Patricia Kayden: He’s on the ballot in 11 states and campaigning for a write-in in another 20 or so
Ballot states Arkansas Colorado Idaho Iowa Kentucky Louisiana Minnesota New Mexico South Carolina Utah Virginia
Link
Edit: I’m obviously a slow typist.
El Caganer
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/10/donald-trump-hate-groups-neo-nazi-white-supremacist-racism
Sorry if I’m repeating what everybody’s already seen, but I thought this might cheer up your Sunday morning.
Iowa Old Lady
@Amir Khalid: Someone else tactfully pointed out that Clinton is a private citizen at the moment. It was interesting to me that this person knew about the miners bill but thought Clinton could get it passed in the next month. People are such mixtures of knowledge and ignorance.
Elizabelle
And: my BIL has a FB post up. Trump-Pence bus delivered relief supplies to hurricane/flood-damaged North Carolina. But you won’t hear about this from the media, which is making up lies about Trump.
Sigh.
He’s a good guy, so it’s sad to see this. College educated, great father. Believes the civil war was about “state’s rights.” (Sigh again.)
debbie
@Elizabelle:
More Play-Doh?
MattF
@Elizabelle: When I was a freshman in college, a fellow freshman from Texas came back from an American History lecture with a stunned expression, saying “The Civil War was a civil war!”
Kay
That to me is what makes NC and VA so interesting as a target for Democrats. It wasn’t an easy or guaranteed strategy.
JJ
@Kay: Exactly. I asked an evangelical Christian I know from a fundamentalist thought-leader family how evangelicals square continuously declining abortion rates since Bill with advent of education, and access to birth control. “Abortion rates have dropped?” she asked.
Matt McIrvin
@Peale: The Democrats have failed to reach them. The problem is that the only way to reach them is bigotry. If that’s out, you’re out of luck.
Elizabelle
@TS: You know, he [Evan McMullen] was on the ballot in Virginia. I’d never heard of him. Assumed he was some local yokel. Well, well.
WereBear
I was watching Friday’s Real Time with Bill Maher and was just appalled at how all the grievances of the right wingers are FALSE. They don’t exist! They are all worked up about LIES and misconceptions!
This alternate universe they live in doesn’t even make internal sense. If it were a screenplay the fans would reject it!
I do think their brains never went through the Enlightenment.
Elizabelle
@Kay: VA and NC have educated people, great public university systems, and strong business communities, with a lot of transplants from other states. Albeit, southwestern parts of both states have a lot of unemployment from lost textile, mining, and furniture manufacturing jobs.
Does not look like the rest of the South, is my guess. More midatlantic, I guess, with local dialects, some kudzu, and good regional food …
Matt McIrvin
@Kay: My pulled-from-the-butt guess is that Jill Stein will probably get way below 1% in reality, but Johnson might actually perform close to his polling. It matters very little whether he does or not, though, since he seems to pull about evenly from both major-party candidates and will probably not cause any state to flip one way or the other (let alone actually win a state).
McMullin will probably actually pull down Trump’s vote share quite a lot in Utah, but Trump will still take the state. No electoral effect.
Peale
@Matt McIrvin: well it is out. and I don’t care if it is. What I’m tired of is the articles that are “whites in Peoria are angry. Tsk. Tsk. Democrats.” How about “tsk. Tsk. Republicans” for a change. They are overwhelmingly represented by republicans. maybe that’s who is making them angry.
Matt McIrvin
@Jack the Second:
I’m pretty sure that’s always been the case, though. Advances in killing and defense technology are equally available to you and to your enemies.
Corner Stone
There’s an all black panel on AM Joy right now. Five people of color discussing US politics.
It’s.Just.Too.Much. *runs away squeeling*
Elizabelle
@MattF: I cannot account for how my BIL ended up a rebel yell man. His mom and grandmother do not seem like that. His early primary schooling and high school years were in Northern Virginia, for dog’s sake. I think he spent some years in northern Florida, and maybe that accounts …
He’s very down on poor blacks, as you find in pockets of (urban) poverty. Thinks they’re shiftless. It’s so weird, because his side of the family has some interracial marriages, one very strong. I’d guess it could be more class-based. Think he’s had a black employee or two who didn’t turn out well, but he’s had problems with “the bubbas” too. He’s a very generous man, but talks in code about black people, because he realizes we’re not supposed to talk trash about blacks, and he did not raise his children to do so, but there you go.
Also this year wondered aloud how he would know a good Muslim from a bad one (like he needs to protect his family, out in the Virginia exurbs). That one shocked me. He’s listening to someone who’s spouting pure Limbaugh. Guessing it’s employees and other contractors?
Anyway, worrisome. My sister said not to worry, he’s not going to vote for Trump, but the FB post? Uh, I don’t know there. Sadly, two of the kids have turned out to be conservatives like Daddy. I am hoping it’s just they’re young and have not seen enough of life and the world … Daddy and the two oldest are in the process of obtaining concealed carry permits.
What amuses me: they do live out in the exurbs, down a long driveway, and their doors and all the car doors are usually unlocked.
So are they in mortal peril as they drive our paved roads? At Food Lion? On contracting jobs? Are hordes streaming in to steal their sanders and tools while they’re working jobsites? Stand your generator?
Jeebus. I feel for my sister. This election season has gone on too long. We need relief.
Matt McIrvin
@Elizabelle: Virginia and NC are both places where the Obama coalition is on the rise: African-Americans, plus immigrants from all over, plus highly educated white professionals in the parts of the state with a booming tech sector. Georgia is probably next in line, though I doubt it will flip this year.
The coastal South is not going to be a Republican stronghold forever. This is where Democrats gain to offset their eventual losses in the Great Lakes area.
Matt McIrvin
@Elizabelle: How old is he? NoVa had plenty of rebel yell men when I was growing up there. It was rapidly getting more diverse and getting more of a Mid-Atlantic States culture from transplants, but the culturally Confederate contingent was always part of the mix.
Iowa Old Lady
Elizabelle
@Matt McIrvin: Aged mid-fifties.
Neither BIL nor his sons have any confederate regalia. But they’d be the first to tell you, it’s just “state’s rights.”
He is hard headed as they come. Also very soft-hearted and courteous and gracious, most of the time, but this election season has brought out the crude.
ETA: BIL is more Tom Petty southern. Although Petty himself is kind of a populist, leaning Democratic.
Link: http://hollowverse.com/tom-petty/
Jeffro
@Elizabelle: I think that’s exactly right – great public universities that have a lot of educated people, and a lot of those graduates have settled in and near the major urban centers as well.
As a long-term strategy for turning a state blue it’s a pretty good one
Jeffro
@Elizabelle: if you had said mid 40s I would say this is one of my fellow obnoxious Reagan baby Gen Xers but it sounds like he is at the tail end of the baby boom, and us will be one of the last of this older whiter less enlightened generation to kick off …
Taylor
@Elizabelle: There is plenty of deep-seated racism among whites, college-educated or not, in Northern VA. It’s the kind that stays under cover except in company that is assumed to be sympathetic. Being a racist bigot does not preclude being “courteous and gracious” to the right kind of people.
Fair Economist
@Elizabelle:
He’s ex-CIA, so actually he kind of is.
Elizabelle
@Taylor: Yeah. BIL would not find himself to be “racist”, but he’s got a lot of markers. Sad to find the two older kids pretty much BIL clones in this regard, although they’re young.
BIL is literally the hardest worker I have ever seen. Pushes himself very hard, physically, timewise, professionally. It’s admirable, but he’s driven, and if he compares other people with himself, they are usually going to come up “shiftless.” It’s a form of blinders.
Lives near confederate battlefields. When I was driving the backroads recently, I was thinking — yep, there’s the New Confederacy. Trump signs and Benghazi! (rabid Tea Partying signs), in and near the harvested fields.
Elizabelle
@Taylor: Shorter: he’s his own slave-driver.
MattF
@Fair Economist: And ex-Congressional staff. One of those Defenders of Liberty who’s been a government employee all his life.
Elizabelle
@MattF: There’s no Tea Partier like a Tea Partier with a secure government pension. And civil service protections. Gah.
Matt McIrvin
@Elizabelle: Oh, yeah, if he’s in his mid-fifties I have no trouble at all believing he could grow up that way in NoVa. We moved into the west end of Fairfax County in the early 1970s and the area was still mostly rural, very white and very much the South. It changed rapidly after that, but the old culture never went away completely. The highways are still named after Confederate generals.
Jeffro
You know I was thinking about those articles I mentioned earlier from Dana Milbank and AJ Dion and one way to shut them up while hopefully addressing some of the issues would be for Democrats to make a push and say look, if your support for Trump was motivated by racial issues we can’t help you; but if you are concerned about losing your job and making sure that the Safety net stays intact here’s a wide range of things the Democrats are working on it to try and make your life better … even if you don’t join us we will still be fighting for these things and for a stronger America
Matt McIrvin
@Elizabelle: …And the very Republican, Reaganite crowd I grew up with were largely the families of defense contractors and military people. Completely dependent on government spending, but it was the spending that they thought was legitimate, not handouts for Those People.
Ruckus
@JGabriel:
Know a girl who had a coke prescription for a short while, she had her nose operated on. This was decades ago so I’d bet that’s not done any more. But I saw the prescription and the bottle.
Matt McIrvin
@Jeffro: That was exactly what Hillary Clinton was trying to say when she got roasted for talking about the Basket of Deplorables. Implying that any Trump supporter might be a racist and that this is bad is not on if you’re trying to win them over.
WereBear
@Taylor: That’s very Southern, in my experience. Ruin people’s lives but don’t be rude about it.
amk
Ruckus
@efgoldman:
He paid too much.
Matt McIrvin
@amk: Remember McCain’s tire swing?
I’ve been watching poll aggregators making nervous “how bad could it be?” calculations. Sam Wang’s Bayesian projection is up to 98% Hillary now. I figure the race could still be a tossup by Election Day if, somehow, Clinton’s numbers reenact the plunge they made from late August through the aftermath of Pneumonia/Deplorables Weekend, starting at this instant. In a few days it will be too late even for that.
debbie
@Iowa Old Lady:
Wrong-way Trump. He should be half as good as Alec Baldwin.
hovercraft
Face The Nation panel of conservatives discussing the state of the GOP and their nominee, Matt Schlapp blames Obama for the GOP losing their mind says he was mean and non bipartisan, which made them frustrated so it’s his fault, Russel Moore blames Bill Clinton and the democrats for his coarsening the culture with the Monica Lewinski affair, and democrats for not condemning him, Tammy Bruce is happy we’re not electing a boyfriend or a husband, she wants a trauma surgeon to fix us, the Obama’s have the best marriage since the Reagan’s but that has meant nothing for the country , then reels off a bunch of stats to show Obama is terrible, Trump will fix America. Alfonso Aguillar says character counts, is appalled by Hillary, but says you can’t just vote for Trump as the anti-Hillary, laments the primary process, says do not vote for either. Moore says you can’t fight lack of character with more lack of character. Tammy Bruce says we are in an existential battle for the future, Again stresses that their marriage hasn’t benefited the country, vote Trump for your future, Schlaap says that Obama woke Trump up after an immoral life, he had an epiphany and is now a new man who is ready to lead the nation as a man of superior character. Who knew Obama had the power to cause people to completely change who they are after 60 years on earth?
WereBear
This is why I don’t watch those shows. It’s like a presentation at a mental hospital. Panel: DELUSION
hovercraft
@Iowa Old Lady:
Poor, poor Donald, the world hates him and is ganging up against him. So what is the Donald’s reaction, he whines like the big, fat whinny baby, sorry that’s giving babies a bad name.
Glidwrith
@hovercraft: Even with babies whining iis deplorable.
Baud
@hovercraft: The party of personal responsibility indeed.
mike in dc
The real-world discussion topic for Sunday political shows should be “Is the Republican presidential nominee actually insane?” But instead we get the usual bullshit.
Kropadope
@hovercraft:
Continuing the media’s habit of blaming the victim.
The Lodger
@Elizabelle: To be honest, he really is taking his life in his hands at Food Lion, especially when he goes to the meat counter.
Kropadope
@Baud: Personal responsibility is only for people with low-paying jobs trying to make ends meet. It’s not for captains of industry or religious leaders or republican politicians.
kindness
Things are lookin’ good.
I live in a red/purple area. Central Valley N. Cal. Our local paper which is reliably very right wing has not only come out supporting Hillary for President, but also has come out against the local Teahaddist Congressman Denham in favor of the Democrat running against him. It did this purely because Denham loves him some Trump. I was shocked to read it this morning. Pleasantly so.
Baud
@Kropadope: Agreed. We don’t want to punish success by treating the successful as if they had agency.
Baud
@kindness: Nice. Hillary is obviously going to win California, but am extra House seat would be great.
amk
wow.
Brachiator
@Jeffro:
Obama tried to do this, but got push back from the GOP mainstream and obviously Trump’s birtherism nonsense. The lie was and still is that the Democrats are unpatriotic and hostile to real Americans.
Even if Trump drags the GOP down to presidential defeat, I don’t think they will have learned any lessons.
Clinton will have her hands full, and maybe her discipline and ability to focus will provide an advantage.
patrick II
@Mary G:
Take a picture of it. Blow it up. Frame it and hang it on a wall. It will be a proud possession.
hovercraft
Bob Woodward wants to focus on the continents of the leaked e-mails, not their provenance. He is focusing on an e-mail from an aide to Cheryl Mills saying we should leak her changing position on Keystone so that she doesn’t have to announce it, this is the culture of concealment which means ,will she be able to govern? You talk to lots of people who say she will be a weak president because this is not just about Trump, it’s about her and the majority of the people don’t trust her. Maureen Dowd gleefully mocks the fact that after 30 years her staff is telling her how to be spontaneous and she is still stiff. Jon Meecham says the public vs private talk is true and normal, he cites LBJ, Reagan, Jefferson and says without that they wouldn’t have gotten a lot of things dine. David Ignatious says there is nothing in her e-mails that is outright scandalous, they show her to be a closed person but not a fundamentally dishonest person, and that on the other side we are seeing “world class dishonesty”. Woodward jumps in to declare that there’s still a chance we could get something before the election.
Larkspur
@gene108: Yeah, I worked for a tax attorney once, years ago, and I was surprised at how much room there was to negotiate, how black and what it isn’t. An audit doesn’t mean a conviction or a penalty is imminent.
I also remember one time, shortly after I started working there, when a client came in and declared, “I have to pay $53,000!” I was shocked! OMG, so much money! And then he started laughing and hugging my boss. Turns out it was a great victory achieved through an offer in compromise that had started with a much much higher demand. The rich really are different.
Baud
@hovercraft:
Bob Woodward and Maureen Dowd on the same panel. Jesus, my TV isn’t even on and I might throw a brick through it.
Gin & Tonic
@Ruckus: It’s still used, IIRC, in some ophthalmic preparations and one or two other things. Long time ago my wife worked in the pharmacy of one of NYC’s leading hospitals, where they manufactured some of their own preparations and compounds, and there was medicinal-grade cocaine there. Obviously under some really stringent controls.
The Lodger
@hovercraft: I’m surprised you could watch that. I’d have attacked my TV with a shovel.
Brachiator
@mike in dc:
Meet the Press danced around it in a way, talking about Trump’s crazy tweets.
Of course the other topic should have been, “are Trump supporters actually insane?”
amk
@Baud: these pundtwits have been there for what, four fucking decades now? shouldn’t the teevee media be developing the next generation of dumbfucks already?
Baud
@amk: I know, right. Do they no longer teach dumbfuckery in journalism school?
Elizabelle
@shomi: I actually agree with you, shomi.
And the pantswetting gets to me too. It’s demoralizing. No need.
Brachiator
@hovercraft:
Obama is magic. I remember when Tammy Bruce was a radical lesbian. Obama has turned her into Ann Coulter. This weird stuff about the Obamas’ marriage is nothing more than code for “white racists can’t relate to the Obamas and yearn for the white bread of Ronald Reagan.”
Also, these conservative dopes can’t admit the truth, that the Republican Congress decided to oppose Obama on Day One of his administration.
Villago Delenda Est
@hovercraft: So.Much.Derp.
Elizabelle
@hovercraft: I just could not watch that crap. No Sunday TV for me. Youse all here is just fine.
But shame on Face the Nation.
And who gives a f*ck about Bob Woodward? Shouldn’t we all just be waiting for his book? Oh, right. This one is about Democrats. And the provenance is a big deal. Isn’t there a moral hazard in rewarding hackers trying to intervene in our elections?
Now, to do some canvassing in this gorgeous early fall weather.
Elizabelle
@The Lodger: As long as he wears protective eyewear at the meat counters to avoid splashes by bleach solution.
Food Lion. Around after its sell by date.
Elizabelle
@Elizabelle: PS: not directed in the least at Matt McI! More at some pantswetters who don’t seem to be here this morning. Thankfully.
Seriously though. We have a whole mainstream media devoted to ignoring and deploring Democrats, and focusing intensely on all things Republican. Why bring that vibe here?
sneezy
@debbie:
Nope. The vast majority of voters in 49 states have never heard of him. His purpose is to give Mormons in Utah someone to vote for who is neither Trump nor Clinton.
hovercraft
@Baud: @The Lodger:
I’m back, after watching and then typing that shit, I had to go get cuddles, and then mediate between 10 and 13 year old whose turn it was to have the TV, who’s fault it is that the 10 year olds ipad is not charged, nice normal relaxing stuff. Now I’m going to see what Jake Tapper is up to. Oh dear just caught the the tail end of Nancy Smash, next up Rudy.
amk
Villago Delenda Est
@Baud: Both of them have pretty low manifest numbers. Not as low as Chuckles the Toddler or Mrs. Greenspan, but in the ballpark.
Brachiator
@hovercraft:
This is fair. The spin coming from Clinton surrogates that all the leaks are illegitimate because they come from Russian hacking is bullshit.
Still these leaks are not a big deal, so far. Clinton is a politician. No shit.
Some of the Freedom of Information Act material obtained by various media sources on the surface looks more interesting, but still is not that revelatory.
Uncle Cosmo
@Patricia Kayden: ID, NV, AZ have significant LDS presence in the electorate as well, although I don’t think they might actually be a deciding factor in any but the first.
Actually the McMullin boomlet makes a certain amount of sense for Mormons who abhor Trumpolini & can’t bring themselves to vote for HRC but would be content with nearly any other Republican in the WH.
Imagine (if you can stomach it) a scenario where neither major-party candidate reaches 270 EVs because McMullin takes UT (& possibly ID). The election is thrown into the (newly-elected) House to choose among the top 3 EV winners. At first blush it looks as if the 12th Amendment rules:
Note that the EVs are counted by Congress on or after 6 January 2017, i.e., after the new (115th) Congress has been sworn in. In the 114th Congress the GOP controls 34 House delegations, the Democrats 13, and 3 are evenly divided (ME, VT, NJ). I’m not going down into the weeds to predict how that would change, but it seems highly unlikely that even if the Democrats take the House they could flip enough state delegations to obtain a majority. (And even less likely that they could deny a quorum, as even a single Rep in attendance counts as representing that state. E.g., even in my MD where 7 of 8 Congresspersons are Democrat, the presence of Thuglican whackaloon Andy Harris [MD-01, we presume he’s getting reelected] would be enough to count the state as part of the quorum, damnittohell.)
It’s possible (but IMO highly unlikely) that enough GOP state delegations could defect to McMullin to make him POTUS; they’d all be terrified of retribution at the ballot box come 2018. But what happens if enough defect to deny anyone an absolute majority (26) by 20 January 2017?
Section 3 of the 20th Amendment states that
Has Congress so provided? Not that I know of. (Anyone who knows otherwise, have at.) And should Congress attempt to so provide on or after 20 January 2017, my question becomes how does a bill get enacted into law without a President to sign it?
Faced with incipient pandemonium, one might conceive a scenario where McMullin & his placeholder VP Nathan Johnson (who he seems to be stuck with) are selected under an agreement that each will resign so that Congress can select replacements pursuant to the 25th Amendment. (I.e, VPOTUS resigns, Congress selects new VPOTUS, POTUS resigns, VPOTUS becomes POTUS, Congress selects new VPOTUS.) Could get very interesting if a President McMullin doesn’t approve of the new VPOTUS & declines to resign–the House could impeach him but all he’d need is 34 Senate votes against removal.
Utterly insane.
How about we roll up our sleeves & elect Hillary instead?
amk
@Brachiator: Isn’t watergate all about provenance? stupid argument from woodward.
Gindy51
@Elizabelle: Food Lion, last time I shopped there was in Va Beach, VA 1988… bought a box of cereal and there were spider webs in it. YIKES! I drove an extra 5 miles to a real grocery store from that day until we left Va Beach.
Cain
@Jeffro:
I hate those people (as a fellow GenXer) and Reagan really put a number on them. I never subscribed to Reagan’s bullshit. Since Reagan the economy was in the tank until the dot com boom. That said, most of the GenXers I know tend to be independents or progressives. (well come on, we were more anti-establishment than the dudes and dudettes from the 60s)
Peale
@amk: yep. Yet according to Woodward, that makes her secretive. I’m sure he finds Trump’s ‘candor’ refreshing.
Villago Delenda Est
@amk:
This is, after all, Booby’s default setting.
rikyrah
@Kay:
I know I sound crazy, but I think that Hillary can win NC, FL, GA and MS. GA and MS are the crazy, but not really. Her needed White vote isn’t so far off in these states.
Gelfling 545
@JGabriel: Thank you.
Gelfling 545
@Iowa Old Lady: How would she do that, given that she now holds no elected office? Civics lesson needed there.
Matt McIrvin
@Uncle Cosmo: McMullin is not on the ballot in NV or AZ. In AZ, he is registered as a write-in, but there’s no legal way to vote for him at all in NV.
Villago Delenda Est
@Gelfling 545: She will use her might vagina of power to cower both houses of Congress into passing the legislation while ignoring every other impulse they might have had with how to spend their time over the last three weeks of the election, to include their own campaigns, eating, sleeping, expelling waste, and, of course, sex.
Villago Delenda Est
@Elizabelle:
Not if they’re intervening on behalf of other moral hazards such as racists, sexists, religious bigots, and greedheads!
Brachiator
@amk:
No.
Vhh
@Iowa Old Lady: Hillary is not in any legislature, so can get nothing passed. Your friend is a liar looking for cover.
Matt McIrvin
@Elizabelle: I consider improbable doom scenarios in part to figure out just how improbable they are.
Right now, the answer is: really improbable. Clinton’s numbers dropped at the end of August into September largely because, after her post-convention high, she was concentrating on fundraising rather than public campaigning, and Trump’s campaign temporarily got a tiny bit of message discipline, allowing the game to slowly revert toward a fifty-fifty default. We’re clearly way past that stage now. Trump is reeking of desperation and throwing out one loony attack after another. I don’t think we’re looking at some runaway landslide where we win Texas and take back the House, like some people have suggested; Republicans are circling the wagons and getting hardened in their positions by the attacks on Trump. But I do think Hillary’s position just gets stronger where it is.
Taking polls at face value, for most of this year the campaign has resembled Obama vs. Romney in 2012, but the endgame so far is looking more like Obama vs. McCain in 2008. The first debate was the transition point.
JR in WV
@amk:
I’ll be so disappointed if he didn’t leave them because they are malignantly evil in every way, shape and form.
amk
@Brachiator: of course not. you would have believed any tape.
Brachiator
@amk:
I give credence to what can be verified and corroborated. What standard do you use?
Had Watergate just been “believe us because we talked to this guy Deep Throat,” Nixon would have served his full term.
Also, I never said that the Wikileaks material was entirely true or even credible.
I think that Adam Silverman will post more on this later. You should pay attention.
Gelfling 545
@hovercraft: so President Obama was the messiah after all?
Jeffro
@Brachiator: I agree with you that is and has been the lie … I just don’t think it flies too far anymore, or at least not as far as it used to
Uncle Cosmo
@Matt McIrvin: Which is a good thing for Team Hill, since it removes one “safe harbor” for Trump-averese LDS voters in those states. No one really expects UT to go blue, & were ID to do so as well I’d consider it a sign of the Apoc(ketapocketapocket)alypse.