Learned an important lesson – don’t trash Jill Stein and Wikileaks in the same tweet. I was starting to notice a few retweets among Berniebros and MAGA twits.
4.
Trentrunner
In the interests of full reporting, Nate Silver is now saying Trump’s sexual assault charges ARE hurting his numbers.
Earlier today Sam Wang said they did NOT hurt Trump’s numbers.
I smell stat geek cage match. I want Nate to be right, for the sake of our country.
5.
Epicurus
Be careful what you wish for? This trio of morons would say or believe anything to protect their nominee. Let’s give them a big sad on Election Day.
@Trentrunner: I tend to think Wang is closer to the truth, for two reasons:
1) That Trump is a misogynistic fuckwit and serial harasser was news to exactly no one (other than pearl clutching pundits whose livelihood depends on being a bit thick). It was already part of his brand. It moved pundit opinion, because they are a special breed of stupid, but not mass opinion.
2) Confirmation bias is real. Studies repeatedly show that when presented with new information contradicting their beliefs, people challenge the information and not the beliefs. In the case of candidates, at the point when primaries are over and people are locked into their respective tribes’ candidates, people will change their views on issues before changing their views on candidates.
8.
Eric
@Trentrunner: so he can’t stand up to billy bush but can stand up to isis and put in….
9.
SenyorDave
So Pat Smith, whose son was killed in the Benghazi attack, will be Trump’s guest during the third debate. Sh personally blames Clinton for her son’s death, and wants to look into her eyes. Its a tragedy what happened in Benghazi, but when you POLITICIZE YOUR OWN SON’S DEATH, it says a lot about your own character.
Anyone who gets on the Trump train is tarnished immediately.
The Swedish Academy says it has given up trying to reach Bob Dylan, days after it awarded him the Nobel prize in literature.
“Right now we are doing nothing. I have called and sent emails to his closest collaborator and received very friendly replies. For now, that is certainly enough,” the academy’s permanent secretary, Sara Danius, told state radio SR on Monday.
So far the American troubadour has responded with silence since he won the prize on Thursday.
He gave a concert in Las Vegas that very night, but made no mention of the accolade. … [Dylan closed his set that night] with a cover of Frank Sinatra’s Why Try to Change Me Now.
Anyhoo, the Nobel Committee thinks and hopes that Mr. D will show in Stockholm on December 10.
13.
Hal
@Trentrunner: With rank and file Republican voters or all potential Trump supporters? If rank and file I’m not surprised, but I also wonder if some pollsters are correctly counting the women’s vote. I also wonder if some women aren’t more likely to humor their male friends and relatives in saying they are going to vote Trump when they are not.
14.
Eric
@Trentrunner: I thought you were joking. Holy fuck. What a pu$$y he is
21 days until our long national nightmare is over.
17.
lamh36
Speaking of Dumb and Dumberer…Law & Order SVU was supposed to be airing a Donald Trump-esque “ripped from the headlines” episode.
But the ep has since been pulled…smh
I’m sure the gutless TPTB at NBC pulled it, just like they were gonna sit on the Access Hollywood footage, until it was leaked,cause they were scared of being sued..
Scary punks…smh
18.
Elizabelle
@SenyorDave: Yeah. I am sad for Pat Smith for losing her son; she may be left inconsolable. But she could have been nut-cakes before, too.
Character will out. Hers seems lacking.
19.
Ruckus
You really didn’t expect any one of these three to be able to see through this as a joke? Put the three of them in one room and it instantly becomes a Superfund site.
20.
WaterGirl
@Eric: Nothing is ever Trump’s fault, nothing is ever his responsibility. And still he presents himself as a powerful man. He has absolutely no clue. I wonder how you have to raise somebody to have them turn out like this.
@lamh36: LOL!! Roker couldn’t hide the fact that he couldn’t stand Billy. I don’t blame him. Billy can go work for Trump once this election is over and they can talk in “locker rooms” for the rest of their lives about how fun it is to harass women.
23.
lamh36
@Trentrunner: Right…there a twitter hashtag dedicated to it…
#BillyBushMadeMeDoIt
24.
BillinGlendaleCA
@SenyorDave: Called it. I said a week ago he’d have a Benghazi relative as a guest.
25.
WaterGirl
@Eric: I know, I thought about that as I was typing the comment. I was relieved to recall that Trump left “raising the kids” to his various wives. Thank god for that. Though I can’t imagine what sort of person would want to marry Trump and bear his children.
P.S. I like money as much as the next person, but there’s not enough money in the world to get me to date/marry/sleep with a pig.
@SenyorDave: If Clinton was petty, she could easily come up with hundreds of family members of maimed or dead soldiers of Bush’s (unnecessary) Iraq adventure.
Prior to The Tape Clinton was running +15 with women, post Tap that number has gone to +20 for a +5 gain, using NBC/WSJ polls for apples-to-apples. Now either The Tape did something or no woman in America changed or decided her vote because of Herr Gropundfellum. IF the latter is accepted then the corollary: every loosely attached female GOP voter and undecided woman in the country is a moron, must also be accepted.
Prof. Wang has stated he is sticking solely to polling data and it’s hard to fault him for that. As I said earlier today, this kind of thing is exactly the kind of thing that statistical analysis has a real hard picking up in Real Time. Nate Silver has some weird mix of polling and real time analysis and that is the analytical methodology that can pick this kind of thing up.
Personally, I think The Tape has affected the 2016 woman’s vote AND we won’t really know how much until the postmortem number crunching is done. 5% or, roughly, 3.2 million women switching or deciding for Clinton seems about intuitively right.
32.
Bill E Pilgrim
@Trentrunner: I just saw a clip on Tweety’s show. I think Saturday night live is going to have to up its game, this was indistinguishable from satire. When I heard “I think he …like egg on, to say these things, by the host” all I could see was this.
You really have to admire Tweety’s interview style by the way, of asking questions and then talking non-stop over the people trying to answer you. Trying to imagine someone seeing that and thinking hey, he’d be good as a TV interviewer. He must be loads of fun to be married to.
And still he presents himself as a powerful man. He has absolutely no clue. I wonder how you have to raise somebody to have them turn out like this.
At this point I’ve read perhaps half a dozen Trump biographies, and countless analytical articles about him. His mother is hardly mentioned in any of them except for the well-worn facts that she was an immigrant from Scotland, and that she loved the British Royal family and watched the Coronation on television (as did millions of others). But as far as anything at all about her mothering skills, personality, or relationship with Donald or any of her other kids — crickets. There’s a little bit more, but not much, about Fred Trump’s influence on Donald. I’m no Freudian, but I’m guessing there’s been a metric shit-tonne of parental and family dysfunction going on in that family since Don was a small boy. Would love it if somebody qualified could write about it, but if Don himself (or any of his surviving siblings) won’t open up, we’ll probably never know.
2) Confirmation bias is real. Studies repeatedly show that when presented with new information contradicting their beliefs, people challenge the information and not the beliefs. In the case of candidates, at the point when primaries are over and people are locked into their respective tribes’ candidates, people will change their views on issues before changing their views on candidates.
Trump’s support appears to have a pretty hard ceiling in the upper 30%s…but boy, the floor is right under that ceiling, too…
(Shorter version: you’re right and thanks for noting confirmation bias I think Corey Lewandowski put it about how 99% of Trump supporters would put it: “He’s not running for Sunday school teacher” Translation: “I’ve made my choice and I’m sticking with him to the end”)
Hey, survival-wise, we needed some of our ancestors to have that mindset. And yet, it’s called evolution for a reason…
36.
Mark B
@Trentrunner: If this excuse is true, it reflects very badly on Trump. He’s so damn weak that he can be influenced to do some that stupid that easily? That’s not the kind of person you want to be in charge of anything. Not even a 7-11.
37.
Trentrunner
@Bill E Pilgrim: I’m sorry, when Melanoma talks, all I hear is
“Moose and squirrel must die.”
38.
lamh36
so the guy charged with road rage shooting involving George Zimmerman was sentenced to 20 years.
How’s that for justice…
Ugh!
39.
Soylent Green
@lamh36: The fuckwads who love Trump’s vulgarity are also fans of Stern’s vulgarity. Whatever he may think of Trump, he doesn’t want to lose his audience.
40.
Les Bonnes Femmes
@Bobby Thomson: You are absolutely right, unless exit polls show otherwise. But, once HRC wraps this up, then truthiness prevails. Whether it can be verified or not, the Bushy video will be forever thought of as the event that changed the election.
@Trentrunner:
538 had Arizona light blue earlier today but it’s still blood red on Wang’s map.
Hoping Nate’s right on this one too.
43.
gorram
@Trentrunner: Problem is that’s just their pre-existing argument taken into this news cycle. In Silver’s model, the slightest nudge is read loud and clear, but it means there’s a lot of ups and downs, back-and-forths. Wang, ever the pot stirrer, has been coyly suggesting that a truly predictive rather than descriptive model isn’t going to have quite as much fluctuation. So this is just that outstanding disagreement applied to the Trump tape (or his reaction? or the way it entangled in the debates? It’s not clear to me).
Anyhoo, that is one of the fights I’m enjoying watching these days.
so the guy charged with road rage shooting involving George Zimmerman was sentenced to 20 years.
How’s that for justice…
Ugh!
I’m guessing that the judge is furious at him for shooting at GZ without actually killing him
45.
gorram
@AliceBlue: Nope, at least as of now, it’s light blue on both. I think Wang doesn’t update as often, plus it samples fewer polls, so you’re more likely to see changes first on 538, I suspect.
Streisand, Miranda, Jackman, Mirren, Crystal – just to name a few. Special duets like Jon Hamm & Jake Gyllenhaal. Quite the event.
55.
Baud
@srv: Thanks for pointing out what a real criminal looks like.
56.
MazeDancer
Tonight’s “Broadway for Hillary” fundraiser is streaming live at 8:30. AMAZING line-up. Huge stars. Here’s info.
Sorry for double post, but WP made a link naked and it’s gone to moderation, didn’t want anyone to miss 8:30 ET curtain
57.
WaterGirl
We are having the most perfect weather night here in Champaign. It’s 76 degrees and only 64% humidity (which is very low for us) and there is a lovely breeze. I know we won’t have a lot more of these before it gets cold. If only I could bottle it!
@srv: Dang! You’re late, but you have convinced me finally. It was that post that did it. You are right! And, I’ve been wrong for lo, these many years. Thank you.
62.
MazeDancer
Giving up trying to link this. Sorry for triple post with all the moderations caused by the link attemps. At 8:30 ET “Broadway for Hillary” fundraiser will be streaming live. Google search that for links.
@SenyorDave: And the root of Pat Smith’s anger, as I understand it, was the adherence to next of kin notification protocol. His widow, as next of kin, received the information Mrs. Smith believed she, as mother of the deceased was entitled to and did not receive. It’s gone downhill from there, and she’s become a tool of the GOP machine. She seems quite willing to politicize her loss, however, so she’s not an unwitting tool.
@Mnemosyne: And that’s the difference between them. As I recall, Ambassador Stevens’ sister has made the same request. I get that Pat Smith is shell shocked, but her expression of it is unproductive for everyone, imho.
I wonder how you have to raise somebody to have them turn out like this.
Give the kid to the Nanny, tell her “the less you bug me, the better”. When he’s old enough to grope Nanny, fire the hussy, send him off to Military School Tell the school that he’s a good kid, any BS about him bullying people and no endowment, same with collage, then give the kid his own company, tell the employees that he fucks up, it’s their fault and jobs. After that being rich and living in NYC takes care of the rest.
66.
Matt McIrvin
@Trentrunner: Sam Wang hasn’t detected any effect whatsoever. He thinks Trump’s plunge came entirely from the first debate and he’s been stable since.
(ah, read your comment again and I see that was what you were saying)
67.
scav
@gorram: I thought 538 was designed to be twitchier, a little more sensative to noise, some of which will correspond to signal. So also not surprising the two sites are seeing different things about the impact of the tape etc. If it continues over time and is of a certain size, it’ll make both. They’re just different.
Look, we all the the truth about Billy Bush. I mean who among us hasn’t been presured into taking a minor across state lines by him or had to burry a body or two in the woods? It’s part of life and Trump is only human. Okay?
72.
gorram
@scav: That was part of what I was getting at. I didn’t want to sound biased (“noise”) though, since I can see where both of them are coming from. BOTH SIDES! Statistically.
@gorram: I guess I don’t see noise as a biased statement. There’s going to be variation in poll results, that’s just a part of the game. There is a decision to be made as to how sensitive you’re going to be to the possibility of there being a signal in there. Type I Type II error. Nate’s apparently gone one way (plus all the other information he adds to this models) where Sam’s gone very open, pure poll, essentially conservative. I philosophically closer to the second approach, but I’m far from believing it’s the only correct way to do things. It can be a question of style, or intent (for example, if one is looking for teeny wedges so as to be able to plan techniques to jump in and exploit the developing issues, a twitchy technique might be exactly what you want).
81.
The Thin Black Duke
@lamh36: Thing is, because Trump is a coward, he’s sending his wife out there to be the suicide bomber.
His widow, as next of kin, received the information Mrs. Smith believed she, as mother of the deceased was entitled to and did not receive.
There does seem to be this weird wingnut belief that they should always remain their child’s legal next of kin even after that adult child marries. That was the heart of the dispute between Michael Schiavo and his wife’s parents as well.
83.
lamh36
@The Thin Black Duke: Right…someone said…why isn’t Trump sitting there WITH his wife, instead of letting her be the face of his defense.
Cause he thinks using her will ease on him. Then he’ll say…why isn’t the spouse off limits…but wait…you said Bill C ain’t off limits..
84.
Matt McIrvin
@gorram: But Ohio went to a toss-up. His Clinton win probability plummeted all the way down to 97%.
@Bobby Thomson:
I agree that most people already thought he was a misogynist so finding out he is an abuser was no surprise. If you look at the polls, where they have asked people if they believe the charges made by these women, the overwhelming majority say yes. So it hasn’t made them less likely to vote for him because many of the were not going to in the first place. There is a reason he has that hard floor of 40 to 42%.
87.
Matt McIrvin
@gorram: Sam Wang uses HuffPollster’s feed, so his model doesn’t update until they dump a bunch of new polls.
Need to recycle the story about the guy who penned her convention screed.
In fact, I personally drafted the speech of the “Benghazi mom,” Patricia Smith. In that speech, I concluded with the following line: “If Hillary Clinton can’t give us the truth, why should we give her the presidency?” As a political speechwriter, that was something of a home run moment for me. The New Yorker called the speech “the weaponization of grief.”
But weeks after the end of the 2016 GOP convention, I am confronted by an inconvenient fact: Despite what I wrote in that nationally televised speech about Hillary Clinton, I may yet have to vote for her because of the epic deficiencies of my own party’s nominee.
[snip]
I have never voted for a Democrat for federal office, but when I hear the president criticize the GOP nominee, I can’t honestly disagree with him.
[snip]
…the only prospect more terrifying than voting for Hillary Clinton is not voting for her. Source
so he can’t stand up to billy bush but can stand up to isis and put in….
or the media, or the weak Obama administration, or the ladies of the View, or SNL, or Hillary. But he’s the toughest guy evah!!
90.
Vhh
@Mnemosyne: also, a symptom of narcissistic parenting. But in this case, I would not be surprised to find that she has simply been bought, as the Swift boaters were.
Thought of you. Hoping they’ll post on Hillary website tomorrow. Can’t believe how little promo they did of the live-streaming. Had no idea it was going to happen until a little while ago.
@MazeDancer: Ahhh. My friend Jorge Avila is the choirmaster for that concert! Tix sold out in minutes!
94.
hovercraft
@SiubhanDuinne, liberal mob enforcer bitch:
I saw an interview the other day with a biographer who said that Fred Jr. loved being a pilot, but Senior kept haranguing him about wasting his life away, he finally got him to join the family business, where he was miserable and drank himself to death. After which Senior was riddled with guilt. Sounds up like a pretty messed up family. I’m not saying mine’s perfect, but we’re not that bad.
@Les Bonnes Femmes: History is funny that way. To this day, people cite the Iran hostage crisis as the thing that sank Jimmy Carter’s presidency. And it was this endless drawn-out thing that embarrassed him. But it’s a little more complicated than that: Carter was already in deep trouble before the hostage crisis, and the early days of the crisis actually bumped his job approval up to around 50%. It was only when no resolution was forthcoming that he gradually sank back down to where he had been before.
NBC is no longer interested in the news business, except as a profit center. So whatever will bring in the most eyes in the opinion of the bosses.
I quit watching NBC pretty much totally after seeing Andrea Mitchell (Greenspan) stretch the truth about speeches at the DNC after the audience [ including me! ] had just seen those speeches! No respect for the tenants of journalism, even hack journalists do a better job than that.
And tonight CBS on the story about the county GOP HQ being valdalized, first they read the entire Trump tweet, full of hate and undemocratic lies, then they read one phrase from Hillary’s tweet, leaving out her gratitude that no one was hurt, for example.
Plus they didn’t mention the Democratic HQ was also vandalized!
The news media is taken over by the fascist thugs at this point. Only a wave election will do us any good.
@Elizabelle: I guess John Kerry should have invited Cindy Sheehan to the 2004 debates.
100.
hugely
@Soylent Green: hey i resemble that remark. I think stern is voting for hrc. He has mentioned on many occassions his admiration for wjc and hrc when she was senator. I think trump is a friend of the show and is always entertaining as a guest.
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Trentrunner
I see Melanoma is going to be on CNN, explaining that her husband uses “boy talk” when bullied into doing so by alphas like Billy Bush.
Really hoping HRC has more oppo to drop on this cretin before 11/8.
WereBear
Couldn’t happen to nicer bunch, etc.
Botsplainer
Learned an important lesson – don’t trash Jill Stein and Wikileaks in the same tweet. I was starting to notice a few retweets among Berniebros and MAGA twits.
Trentrunner
In the interests of full reporting, Nate Silver is now saying Trump’s sexual assault charges ARE hurting his numbers.
Earlier today Sam Wang said they did NOT hurt Trump’s numbers.
I smell stat geek cage match. I want Nate to be right, for the sake of our country.
Epicurus
Be careful what you wish for? This trio of morons would say or believe anything to protect their nominee. Let’s give them a big sad on Election Day.
lamh36
@Trentrunner:
Billy Bush done got fired from NBC News…Al Roker and the ladies at the Today Show issued the following statement
Statement from Al Roker
Bobby Thomson
@Trentrunner: I tend to think Wang is closer to the truth, for two reasons:
1) That Trump is a misogynistic fuckwit and serial harasser was news to exactly no one (other than pearl clutching pundits whose livelihood depends on being a bit thick). It was already part of his brand. It moved pundit opinion, because they are a special breed of stupid, but not mass opinion.
2) Confirmation bias is real. Studies repeatedly show that when presented with new information contradicting their beliefs, people challenge the information and not the beliefs. In the case of candidates, at the point when primaries are over and people are locked into their respective tribes’ candidates, people will change their views on issues before changing their views on candidates.
Eric
@Trentrunner: so he can’t stand up to billy bush but can stand up to isis and put in….
SenyorDave
So Pat Smith, whose son was killed in the Benghazi attack, will be Trump’s guest during the third debate. Sh personally blames Clinton for her son’s death, and wants to look into her eyes. Its a tragedy what happened in Benghazi, but when you POLITICIZE YOUR OWN SON’S DEATH, it says a lot about your own character.
Anyone who gets on the Trump train is tarnished immediately.
Bobby Thomson
@Eric:
I don’t know that he can put it in, at least not without blue pills.
Felonius Monk
@Botsplainer:
Explanation please?
BTW, what’s the trip to Jyna all about, if I may ask? Going to check out the Trump Suits Works?
Elizabelle
Meanwhile, news from the smart and more curmudgeoner:
The Guardian: Nobel panel gives up knocking on Dylan’s door
Anyhoo, the Nobel Committee thinks and hopes that Mr. D will show in Stockholm on December 10.
Hal
@Trentrunner: With rank and file Republican voters or all potential Trump supporters? If rank and file I’m not surprised, but I also wonder if some pollsters are correctly counting the women’s vote. I also wonder if some women aren’t more likely to humor their male friends and relatives in saying they are going to vote Trump when they are not.
Eric
@Trentrunner: I thought you were joking. Holy fuck. What a pu$$y he is
raven
@SenyorDave: She’s fucking shellshocked.
Anoniminous
21 days until our long national nightmare is over.
lamh36
Speaking of Dumb and Dumberer…Law & Order SVU was supposed to be airing a Donald Trump-esque “ripped from the headlines” episode.
But the ep has since been pulled…smh
I’m sure the gutless TPTB at NBC pulled it, just like they were gonna sit on the Access Hollywood footage, until it was leaked,cause they were scared of being sued..
Scary punks…smh
Elizabelle
@SenyorDave: Yeah. I am sad for Pat Smith for losing her son; she may be left inconsolable. But she could have been nut-cakes before, too.
Character will out. Hers seems lacking.
Ruckus
You really didn’t expect any one of these three to be able to see through this as a joke? Put the three of them in one room and it instantly becomes a Superfund site.
WaterGirl
@Eric: Nothing is ever Trump’s fault, nothing is ever his responsibility. And still he presents himself as a powerful man. He has absolutely no clue. I wonder how you have to raise somebody to have them turn out like this.
Eric
@WaterGirl: ask his sons.
Patricia Kayden
@lamh36: LOL!! Roker couldn’t hide the fact that he couldn’t stand Billy. I don’t blame him. Billy can go work for Trump once this election is over and they can talk in “locker rooms” for the rest of their lives about how fun it is to harass women.
lamh36
@Trentrunner: Right…there a twitter hashtag dedicated to it…
#BillyBushMadeMeDoIt
BillinGlendaleCA
@SenyorDave: Called it. I said a week ago he’d have a Benghazi relative as a guest.
WaterGirl
@Eric: I know, I thought about that as I was typing the comment. I was relieved to recall that Trump left “raising the kids” to his various wives. Thank god for that. Though I can’t imagine what sort of person would want to marry Trump and bear his children.
P.S. I like money as much as the next person, but there’s not enough money in the world to get me to date/marry/sleep with a pig.
Patricia Kayden
@Eric: Things that make you go hmmmmm.
@SenyorDave: If Clinton was petty, she could easily come up with hundreds of family members of maimed or dead soldiers of Bush’s (unnecessary) Iraq adventure.
lamh36
@JamillaTweets 58m58 minutes ago
A billboard in Arabic has been put up in Michigan which says “Donald Trump can’t read this but it still scares him”
MJS
@WaterGirl: You’re seeing how it’s done right now. His sons are exactly like him. My guess is Fred (?) was just like Donald. Rinse, lather, repeat.
lamh36
@Stonekettle Stonekettle Retweeted The Hill
When did HOWARD STERN develop ethics?
@thehill
Howard Stern: Replaying Trump interviews would be ‘a betrayal’
Mnemosyne
@SenyorDave:
Meanwhile, Ambassador Stevens’ mother has repeatedly asked the Trump campaign to stop politicizing her son’a death. I remember seeing the story again more recently, but this is from back in July.
Anoniminous
@Trentrunner:
Prior to The Tape Clinton was running +15 with women, post Tap that number has gone to +20 for a +5 gain, using NBC/WSJ polls for apples-to-apples. Now either The Tape did something or no woman in America changed or decided her vote because of Herr Gropundfellum. IF the latter is accepted then the corollary: every loosely attached female GOP voter and undecided woman in the country is a moron, must also be accepted.
Prof. Wang has stated he is sticking solely to polling data and it’s hard to fault him for that. As I said earlier today, this kind of thing is exactly the kind of thing that statistical analysis has a real hard picking up in Real Time. Nate Silver has some weird mix of polling and real time analysis and that is the analytical methodology that can pick this kind of thing up.
Personally, I think The Tape has affected the 2016 woman’s vote AND we won’t really know how much until the postmortem number crunching is done. 5% or, roughly, 3.2 million women switching or deciding for Clinton seems about intuitively right.
Bill E Pilgrim
@Trentrunner: I just saw a clip on Tweety’s show. I think Saturday night live is going to have to up its game, this was indistinguishable from satire. When I heard “I think he …like egg on, to say these things, by the host” all I could see was this.
You really have to admire Tweety’s interview style by the way, of asking questions and then talking non-stop over the people trying to answer you. Trying to imagine someone seeing that and thinking hey, he’d be good as a TV interviewer. He must be loads of fun to be married to.
Teddy' Person
@lamh36: Thanks for sharing. Made my day.
SiubhanDuinne, liberal mob enforcer bitch
@WaterGirl:
At this point I’ve read perhaps half a dozen Trump biographies, and countless analytical articles about him. His mother is hardly mentioned in any of them except for the well-worn facts that she was an immigrant from Scotland, and that she loved the British Royal family and watched the Coronation on television (as did millions of others). But as far as anything at all about her mothering skills, personality, or relationship with Donald or any of her other kids — crickets. There’s a little bit more, but not much, about Fred Trump’s influence on Donald. I’m no Freudian, but I’m guessing there’s been a metric shit-tonne of parental and family dysfunction going on in that family since Don was a small boy. Would love it if somebody qualified could write about it, but if Don himself (or any of his surviving siblings) won’t open up, we’ll probably never know.
Jeffro
@Bobby Thomson:
Trump’s support appears to have a pretty hard ceiling in the upper 30%s…but boy, the floor is right under that ceiling, too…
(Shorter version: you’re right and thanks for noting confirmation bias I think Corey Lewandowski put it about how 99% of Trump supporters would put it: “He’s not running for Sunday school teacher” Translation: “I’ve made my choice and I’m sticking with him to the end”)
Hey, survival-wise, we needed some of our ancestors to have that mindset. And yet, it’s called evolution for a reason…
Mark B
@Trentrunner: If this excuse is true, it reflects very badly on Trump. He’s so damn weak that he can be influenced to do some that stupid that easily? That’s not the kind of person you want to be in charge of anything. Not even a 7-11.
Trentrunner
@Bill E Pilgrim: I’m sorry, when Melanoma talks, all I hear is
“Moose and squirrel must die.”
lamh36
so the guy charged with road rage shooting involving George Zimmerman was sentenced to 20 years.
How’s that for justice…
Ugh!
Soylent Green
@lamh36: The fuckwads who love Trump’s vulgarity are also fans of Stern’s vulgarity. Whatever he may think of Trump, he doesn’t want to lose his audience.
Les Bonnes Femmes
@Bobby Thomson: You are absolutely right, unless exit polls show otherwise. But, once HRC wraps this up, then truthiness prevails. Whether it can be verified or not, the Bushy video will be forever thought of as the event that changed the election.
Steve in the ATL
@Trentrunner:
This is why I gladly pay full price for Balloon Juice.
AliceBlue
@Trentrunner:
538 had Arizona light blue earlier today but it’s still blood red on Wang’s map.
Hoping Nate’s right on this one too.
gorram
@Trentrunner: Problem is that’s just their pre-existing argument taken into this news cycle. In Silver’s model, the slightest nudge is read loud and clear, but it means there’s a lot of ups and downs, back-and-forths. Wang, ever the pot stirrer, has been coyly suggesting that a truly predictive rather than descriptive model isn’t going to have quite as much fluctuation. So this is just that outstanding disagreement applied to the Trump tape (or his reaction? or the way it entangled in the debates? It’s not clear to me).
Anyhoo, that is one of the fights I’m enjoying watching these days.
Steve in the ATL
@lamh36:
I’m guessing that the judge is furious at him for shooting at GZ without actually killing him
gorram
@AliceBlue: Nope, at least as of now, it’s light blue on both. I think Wang doesn’t update as often, plus it samples fewer polls, so you’re more likely to see changes first on 538, I suspect.
lamh36
@WhiteHouse 2h2 hours ago
Tune in tonight at 11:35pm ET to watch as @POTUS joins @StephenAtHome on the @ColbertLateShow:
WaterGirl
@MJS: I don’t watch the tv news, so I have been spared seeing much of Donald’s spawn. So much for darwin’s theory of evolution?
different-church-lady
So we can fully expect that this debunked parody will leveled as a serious charge by Trump at the next debate.
lamh36
@keithboykin 1h1 hour ago
New CBS News Poll: Clinton leads Trump 47%-38% in 4-way race. Her lead is 51%-40% in 2-way matchup
Les Bonnes Femmes
@Anoniminous: Maybe Center Right or GOP women who were going to vote for HRC all along, but were keeping quiet about it, are coming out of the closet.
WaterGirl
@SiubhanDuinne, liberal mob enforcer bitch: Interesting!
As they used to say in the 90s (or 80s, I’m not sure): “He has issues.”
Baud
@WaterGirl: Wait. They stopped saying that?
KithKanan
@WaterGirl: Issues? I’m pretty sure he’s beyond issues by this point and well into volumes.
MazeDancer
Amazingly, tonight’s “Broadway for Hillary” fundraiser is going to be streamed live from New York. 8:30 ET.
The Tony’s did have a line-up this remarkable. Here is more info and how to watch.
http://variety.com/2016/legit/news/hillary-clinton-broadway-fundraiser-live-stream-watch-online-1201890822/
Streisand, Miranda, Jackman, Mirren, Crystal – just to name a few. Special duets like Jon Hamm & Jake Gyllenhaal. Quite the event.
Baud
@srv: Thanks for pointing out what a real criminal looks like.
MazeDancer
Tonight’s “Broadway for Hillary” fundraiser is streaming live at 8:30. AMAZING line-up. Huge stars. Here’s info.
Sorry for double post, but WP made a link naked and it’s gone to moderation, didn’t want anyone to miss 8:30 ET curtain
WaterGirl
We are having the most perfect weather night here in Champaign. It’s 76 degrees and only 64% humidity (which is very low for us) and there is a lovely breeze. I know we won’t have a lot more of these before it gets cold. If only I could bottle it!
Anoniminous
@Les Bonnes Femmes:
We’re talking only around 2.6% of voters so I’m sure that has has happened. To what extent? Who knows.
WaterGirl
@Baud: Well, they’re not saying that in front of me, anyway!
Elizabelle
@lamh36: Appointment TV!
Les Bonnes Femmes
@srv: Dang! You’re late, but you have convinced me finally. It was that post that did it. You are right! And, I’ve been wrong for lo, these many years. Thank you.
MazeDancer
Giving up trying to link this. Sorry for triple post with all the moderations caused by the link attemps. At 8:30 ET “Broadway for Hillary” fundraiser will be streaming live. Google search that for links.
Giant, huge, amazing star-filled event.
Elizabelle
@Trentrunner: That is damn hilarious.
a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q)
@SenyorDave: And the root of Pat Smith’s anger, as I understand it, was the adherence to next of kin notification protocol. His widow, as next of kin, received the information Mrs. Smith believed she, as mother of the deceased was entitled to and did not receive. It’s gone downhill from there, and she’s become a tool of the GOP machine. She seems quite willing to politicize her loss, however, so she’s not an unwitting tool.
@Mnemosyne: And that’s the difference between them. As I recall, Ambassador Stevens’ sister has made the same request. I get that Pat Smith is shell shocked, but her expression of it is unproductive for everyone, imho.
Enhanced Voting Techinques
@WaterGirl:
Give the kid to the Nanny, tell her “the less you bug me, the better”. When he’s old enough to grope Nanny, fire the hussy, send him off to Military School Tell the school that he’s a good kid, any BS about him bullying people and no endowment, same with collage, then give the kid his own company, tell the employees that he fucks up, it’s their fault and jobs. After that being rich and living in NYC takes care of the rest.
Matt McIrvin
@Trentrunner: Sam Wang hasn’t detected any effect whatsoever. He thinks Trump’s plunge came entirely from the first debate and he’s been stable since.
(ah, read your comment again and I see that was what you were saying)
scav
@gorram: I thought 538 was designed to be twitchier, a little more sensative to noise, some of which will correspond to signal. So also not surprising the two sites are seeing different things about the impact of the tape etc. If it continues over time and is of a certain size, it’ll make both. They’re just different.
BruceFromOhio
@lamh36: Jurisdictions matter.
Brachiator
@lamh36:
Today was a rough day. This link was just what I needed.
a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q)
@KithKanan: He has replaced issues with lifetime subscriptions.
Enhanced Voting Techinques
@lamh36:
Look, we all the the truth about Billy Bush. I mean who among us hasn’t been presured into taking a minor across state lines by him or had to burry a body or two in the woods? It’s part of life and Trump is only human. Okay?
gorram
@scav: That was part of what I was getting at. I didn’t want to sound biased (“noise”) though, since I can see where both of them are coming from. BOTH SIDES! Statistically.
WaterGirl
@Enhanced Voting Techinques: That sounds about right. Sad!
Botsplainer
@Felonius Monk:
Tweeted something which started getting reposted. Stopped at 3. Don’t want the wikijerks slapping my office system.
Trip to Jyna is a lark – about 72 hours. I’ll be back Sunday night.
lamh36
was this Anderson Cooper’s face?
Ruviana
@a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q): Why do I imagine Pat Smith must have been a very irritating MIL?
skerry
@Trentrunner:
lamh36
Mahn…Melania don’t want NONE of what will come her way if she even THINKS of coming for FLOTUS…
@sfpelosi
Anderson: See FLOTUS’ speech?
Mrs #Trump: she should look at people supporting her husband
lamh36
Uhhhh….
@BenjySarlin 3m3 minutes ago
Melania Trump tells CNN she wants her focus as First Lady to be combating negativity on social media.
Hmm.
scav
@gorram: I guess I don’t see noise as a biased statement. There’s going to be variation in poll results, that’s just a part of the game. There is a decision to be made as to how sensitive you’re going to be to the possibility of there being a signal in there. Type I Type II error. Nate’s apparently gone one way (plus all the other information he adds to this models) where Sam’s gone very open, pure poll, essentially conservative. I philosophically closer to the second approach, but I’m far from believing it’s the only correct way to do things. It can be a question of style, or intent (for example, if one is looking for teeny wedges so as to be able to plan techniques to jump in and exploit the developing issues, a twitchy technique might be exactly what you want).
The Thin Black Duke
@lamh36: Thing is, because Trump is a coward, he’s sending his wife out there to be the suicide bomber.
Mnemosyne
@a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q):
There does seem to be this weird wingnut belief that they should always remain their child’s legal next of kin even after that adult child marries. That was the heart of the dispute between Michael Schiavo and his wife’s parents as well.
lamh36
@The Thin Black Duke: Right…someone said…why isn’t Trump sitting there WITH his wife, instead of letting her be the face of his defense.
Cause he thinks using her will ease on him. Then he’ll say…why isn’t the spouse off limits…but wait…you said Bill C ain’t off limits..
Matt McIrvin
@gorram: But Ohio went to a toss-up. His Clinton win probability plummeted all the way down to 97%.
Mnemosyne
@MazeDancer:
I’m still stuck at work. ?
hovercraft
@Bobby Thomson:
I agree that most people already thought he was a misogynist so finding out he is an abuser was no surprise. If you look at the polls, where they have asked people if they believe the charges made by these women, the overwhelming majority say yes. So it hasn’t made them less likely to vote for him because many of the were not going to in the first place. There is a reason he has that hard floor of 40 to 42%.
Matt McIrvin
@gorram: Sam Wang uses HuffPollster’s feed, so his model doesn’t update until they dump a bunch of new polls.
NotMax
@SenyorDave
Need to recycle the story about the guy who penned her convention screed.
hovercraft
@Eric:
or the media, or the weak Obama administration, or the ladies of the View, or SNL, or Hillary. But he’s the toughest guy evah!!
Vhh
@Mnemosyne: also, a symptom of narcissistic parenting. But in this case, I would not be surprised to find that she has simply been bought, as the Swift boaters were.
MazeDancer
@Mnemosyne:
Thought of you. Hoping they’ll post on Hillary website tomorrow. Can’t believe how little promo they did of the live-streaming. Had no idea it was going to happen until a little while ago.
So far, it’s great.
WereBear
@Mnemosyne: This is Wingnuttia! No one grows up!
Helen
@MazeDancer: Ahhh. My friend Jorge Avila is the choirmaster for that concert! Tix sold out in minutes!
hovercraft
@SiubhanDuinne, liberal mob enforcer bitch:
I saw an interview the other day with a biographer who said that Fred Jr. loved being a pilot, but Senior kept haranguing him about wasting his life away, he finally got him to join the family business, where he was miserable and drank himself to death. After which Senior was riddled with guilt. Sounds up like a pretty messed up family. I’m not saying mine’s perfect, but we’re not that bad.
rikyrah
@Elizabelle:
That is hilarious. ☺?
Matt McIrvin
@Les Bonnes Femmes: History is funny that way. To this day, people cite the Iran hostage crisis as the thing that sank Jimmy Carter’s presidency. And it was this endless drawn-out thing that embarrassed him. But it’s a little more complicated than that: Carter was already in deep trouble before the hostage crisis, and the early days of the crisis actually bumped his job approval up to around 50%. It was only when no resolution was forthcoming that he gradually sank back down to where he had been before.
JR in WV
@lamh36:
NBC is no longer interested in the news business, except as a profit center. So whatever will bring in the most eyes in the opinion of the bosses.
I quit watching NBC pretty much totally after seeing Andrea Mitchell (Greenspan) stretch the truth about speeches at the DNC after the audience [ including me! ] had just seen those speeches! No respect for the tenants of journalism, even hack journalists do a better job than that.
And tonight CBS on the story about the county GOP HQ being valdalized, first they read the entire Trump tweet, full of hate and undemocratic lies, then they read one phrase from Hillary’s tweet, leaving out her gratitude that no one was hurt, for example.
Plus they didn’t mention the Democratic HQ was also vandalized!
The news media is taken over by the fascist thugs at this point. Only a wave election will do us any good.
chopper
@Anoniminous:
Waddya mean, “over”?
Honus
@Elizabelle: I guess John Kerry should have invited Cindy Sheehan to the 2004 debates.
hugely
@Soylent Green: hey i resemble that remark. I think stern is voting for hrc. He has mentioned on many occassions his admiration for wjc and hrc when she was senator. I think trump is a friend of the show and is always entertaining as a guest.