(Thanks to beloved commentor SiubhanDuinne)
I’m a big fan of ‘Keep Calm and GOTV On’, myself, but if anyone in your social-media circles needs scary stories to stay motivated…
A Likely Victory Is By No Means A Certain One https://t.co/TLR4m2COqP via @athertonkd
— Erica Chenoweth (@EricaChenoweth) October 17, 2016
Apart from encouragement both positive and negative, what’s on the agenda for the day?
Cermet
Good morning, everyone! I have donated twice and for those that have some available funds, now is a good time – the race is in its final stage and all money matters!
PST
Running up the popular vote is more useful than it has ever been this year. No vote is redundant. That may be one of the reasons for yesterday’s stories about the Clinton campaign shifting resources to red states like Texas. Claims of fraud and claims of illegitimacy all seem sillier as the margin gets bigger. We need to get Clinton over 50 percent despite the third parties.
TK
Actually with Trump’s ego the more he loses it’ll only feed his rigged storyline. ‘Could i really lost lose by ten points? No. Rigged’
That said do it anyway. Humiliate this sack of shit.
raven
Damn, that’s the first time I’ve used Apple pay anywhere besides Trader Joe’s!
David ?▶️Hillary/Harley Quinn 2016▶️? Koch
GOP with White College Women
’60 +45
’68 +17
’76 +22
’80 +9
’88 +6
’92 +0
’96 -4
’00 -5
’04 +1
’08 -7
’12 +6
’16 –20 (post 10/6 avg)
GOP with White College Men
’60 +32
’68 +17
’76 +22
’80 +32
’88 +30
’92 +10
’96 +21
’00 +23
’04 +20
’08 +14
’12 +21
’16 –2 (post 10/6 avg)
rikyrah
Good Morning?, Everyone?
Tissue Thin Pseudonym
I’ll be putting my ballot in the mail today, once I have someone witness it.
In non-election news, I just found out that one of my very favorite former Gopher players read and enjoyed Becoming Phoebe. Aside from all of the usual reasons to like have another satisfied reader, this helps relieve two of the anxieties I’ve had since I published it.
The first is that I haven’t participated in organized sports since I was ten, and, obviously, have never been a part of a women’s sports team. I had to make a lot of semi-educated guesses as to what the interaction between teammates would be like, and worried that I got things sufficiently wrong that it wouldn’t be believable to those who were a part of those teams. Obviously, others who have done so could have a different reaction, but this means that it cleared at least a minimal hurdle.
My second fear was specifically about people who had been a part of Gopher women’s hockey specifically. I worried that writing the story and making it public would cross a threshold of pretending intimacy with the program that I don’t really have. As many games as I have attended, and as many people as I have gotten to know, I am still an outsider. (There are fans that forget this, but I try to remain conscious of it at all times.) It is possible to see it as an attempt to place myself on the inside, and that’s close enough to the truth that it made me uncomfortable. I strongly considered changing the setting so that it was not a real team that formed the centerpiece of the story, but decided, for a variety of reasons, to go ahead and publish it as I had originally conceived it. So it is a relief that someone I enjoyed watching play wasn’t turned off by this.
Schlemazel
Many people dismiss concerns I and others have expressed about the potential for real violence after the election. I do not expect that there will an armed rebellion that can be crushed by the National guard and law enforcement. I do think there is a very real chance of multiple acts of violence against reporters, people of color, Jews, Muslims and their places of worship as well as a high possibility of several Oklahoma City type events. A significant portion of Trump supporters are unhinged, really unhinged, not just in the typical way rapid Republicans have been for the past 20 years. They have been primed for violence and Trump has merrily been the fuse. The Drumpfenstein monster is geared to destroy a whole lot more than the GOP.
David ?▶️Hillary/Harley Quinn 2016▶️? Koch
Botsplainer
@PST:
But how does a voter in a safe state show his disgust with the lesser corporate tool of the neoliberal warmongering patriarchy with your alleged strategy?
Botsplainer
@David ?▶️Hillary/Harley Quinn 2016▶️? Koch:
Breaking his stubby little fingers and smashing his phone would be a good start.
David ?▶️Hillary/Harley Quinn 2016▶️? Koch
RYAN: Iceberg dead ahead!
TRUMP: Yuuuuuuuuuuuge!
RYAN: We’re sinking!
TRUMP: This ship can’t sink. Believe me! Believe me!
Botsplainer
@David ?▶️Hillary/Harley Quinn 2016▶️? Koch:
The boat was rigged to fail.
Mustang Bobby
Greetings from South Florida. Finally getting into the dry season; I was able to walk from my car to the office without breaking a sweat just from the humidity.
Marco Rubio and his Democratic opponent went at it in their first debate last night in Orlando. Based on the clip it was typical back-and-forth about how rotten the other’s presidential candidate was, and Marco promised he would serve the entire six years of his term. Yeah, the little twerp said that before while at the same time he said he hated the Senate and couldn’t get anything done. I’m afraid he’s gonna win; Murphy’s campaign has been about as energetic as a popcorn fart.
workworkwork
Still waiting on our mail-in ballots out here in CO. We’ve got the election guide, which looks even thicker than the last one, so I suppose this is homework.
My brother is down in Florida doing videography for a climate change documentary so I’ve been keeping in touch. It sounds like things were kind of hairy there for him but he should be coming home tomorrow.
Apart from that, I don’t have anything to do but wait around for the home care nurse and prep for my online classroom this evening. (First one since I got out of hospital.)
Meanwhile, our littlest kitty is showing her love by chewing up all of my cables and tossing my insulin pen and test kit on the floor.
raven
@workworkwork: What kind of online course? I assume that there is a synchronous component to it if you are waiting for a specific time?
Botsplainer
Already absentee-voted, as I’ll be in Bonaire on a dive trip on Election Day.
Wondering if there will be any Stein votes in my precinct.
OzarkHillbilly
@Botsplainer: Heh. You just reminded me of a cinematic epic of the western genre, and in particular the “stubby index finger’ song,
Stubby index finger
tapping out your code.
Stubby index finger
looking like a toad
TheMightyTrowel
Absentee voted weeks ago. Excited to see pot legalisation on the ma ballot! Sucked it up and voted for my loathsome blue dog D anti abortion incumbent rep – for once he had a R opponent and that would sadly be worse. Usually he’s unopposed so i write in other people.
OzarkHillbilly
@workworkwork: Sounds like SNAFU to me. Keep it up.
JMG
@TheMightyTrowel: You must live in Steve Lynch’s district.
workworkwork
@raven: Distributed databases. While most of the class is async (discussions, etc.), there’s a weekly Live Classroom requirement where I use a web conferencing service to do an interactive session with students. I record it and then post links to stream/download for those who couldn’t make it, in addition to my notes. I pick the day and time when I set up the course page.
I like the interaction. Online courses can be very isolating and with students doing voice or chat I can respond to questions in real-time and give them hands-on demos of the concepts/tech we’re looking at for the current week. I also give students the opportunity to post questions or comments beforehand so I can address them ‘live’. I just treat it like a video podcast.
Afterwards students are asked to confirm they viewed the session by posting the answer to a question. (It’s a very small part of their grade and the question is usually asked and answered during the live session.)
Botsplainer
@OzarkHillbilly:
Heh.
She COULD deal with his cellphone the way my wife did with mine when she noticed that I’d called a Trumpeteer a “fucking dolt” on Facebook. As it turned out, the dolt had some friends who are customers of hers (and was also the father-in-law of a lawyer acquaintance whose original comment was the subject of the discussion string).
Took me a while to collect all the pieces of that particular iPhone 6s Plus from the bathroom tile…
workworkwork
@OzarkHillbilly: Yeah, it’s just good to be home and snuggling with the kitties.
I’m on my own schedule, I’m avoiding social media, not watching TV (unless Netflix counts) and experimenting with recipes.
It’s a revelation. It’s like my regular life is still going on somewhere else and I’m just suspended outside of it, unaffected.
JPL
Early voting started yesterday, and I plan on voting this morning. The polling place opens at seven, and I’ll probably leave soon.
@workworkwork: Sounds like a good plan.
Kay
I may skip the debate. I can no longer rationally discuss Hillary Clinton’s emails. 18 months of emails was more than enough for me and now we’re shooting for 24.
I can’t figure out whether people are really surprised and horrified that campaign people talk about campaign strategy and planning or if they’re feigning surprise and horror. There can’t be a huge group of people who believe these elaborate multi-million dollar campaigns are just off the cuff winging it, can there?
Raven
@workworkwork: Ah, you are teaching it. Sounds like you know what you are doing. I spent a decade building online courses and the program has proven to be very successful!
craigie
Obama: greatest goddam President ever.
Also: absentee voted yesterday. By fax. Kinda weird, but got a confirming email from the registrar. California knows what it is doing, people.
OzarkHillbilly
@Kay:
Of course there are Kay, depending on how you define ‘yoooooge’. It’s mad up of all those people who don’t even know there is an election until Nov 1.
Baud
@Kay: No, those people don’t exist. What exist are people who want to vote their privilege but feel a need to have a neutral pretext for doing so.
OzarkHillbilly
@craigie: Well, in my lifetime anyway.
rikyrah
@Schlemazel:
I do not dismiss your concerns. But, these people were always here.
Mustang Bobby
I early-voted in ’08 and ’12, but I think I will wait until the actual day and see if the threatened poll-watchers from the Trump campaign show up so I can sneer at them.
Kay
@Baud:
There’s this contradiction though- if the campaign was an unfocused mess we’d be hearing “political malpractice!” and there would thousands of very savvy online strategists weighing in :)
I ended up believing that Bernie Sanders was weak- would be a poor executive- because my sense was his campaign was a mess, that he had lost control of the people who worked for him. He put it in these kind of moral terms- “the movement has no leader” but President’s actually ARE executives- that’s the job.
CarolDuhart2
Have early voted since 2008 Obama. Shorter lines (mostly), often better weather. I feel relaxed about the election once I do so.
Now a not-often made civic duty point: some people can only vote on the Election Day itself. If everyone who could vote early did so, then we would eliminate most of the long lines or make them quicker. And make sure that their votes really do get counted.
One of the many voter suppression tricks is these long lines. Some people can’t wait 8 hours or even 4 to vote, so they end up not voting at all or skipping some ballot issues when they finally get to the line. Not to mention the exhaustion by poll workers as they try to manage this and count the votes as well-some mistakes can be made here as well.
So vote early, and get as many people you know who can vote early to do so.
BillinGlendaleCA
@Kay: I learned from Joe of the Morning that Hillary still controlled the State Department 3 years after she left. Truly amazing.
Kay
My middle son was “inducted” (or whatever it’s called!) into the electricians union last night. There were 22 apprentices who joined. They’re still apprentices for 3 and a half more years, it just means they’re officially union members and can vote in elections, etc.
Anyhoo, they passed around a sign up sheet to canvass for Clinton in Toledo and 8 of the 22 signed up, so that means 4 will show up. Not too shabby.
Baud
@Kay: The less you do, the more you know.
@BillinGlendaleCA: GMA ran that story. I noticed the same thing. Basically, any hearsay allegation in any way connected to Hillary is something she is accountable for.
Mustang Bobby
@Kay: He was “wired in.” :)
Who’s the sacrificial lamb running against Marcy Kaptur this time?
rikyrah
I early voted last Friday. Took me maybe 15 minutes from beginning to end. If you can early vote or absentee vote, do it. If you know Senior Citizens or disabled citizens ask them if they want to early or absentee vote. And help them get their absentee ballot application in- see if your voting jurisdiction has an online absentee ballot application.
Baud
@Kay: Good to hear.
debbie
@BillinGlendaleCA:
Why not? Obama caused the financial crisis, after all.
bystander
In that picture for the Monday Night open thread of Trump, Lolita and her consort, that’s the first time I’ve seen Lolita wearing anything I would consider remotely related to the way Orthodox women dress. Although she seems to be channeling Rosa Kleb.
rikyrah
@Kay: yeah Kay. Congratulations to your son.
OzarkHillbilly
@Kay: Congrats to your son.
Kay
@rikyrah:
We represent a lot of the carpenter’s union members- I don’t know why them– I imagine it’s word of mouth. This is anecdotal but they seem to be more Latino as far as membership than the rest of the trades in NW Ohio I see so I’m curious if they’re trending more Clinton. I haven’t asked any of them because if they support Trump I will think less of them so I don’t want to know :)
I saw a lawyer I consider Right leaning at a Dem county meeting- I’ve never seen him there before but I didn’t ask because he doesn’t like me. This election is weird. I feel like I don’t know who’s who. Who are these people? Has everyone gone crazy? :)
Gindy51
Just saw the gif of Trump trying to mouth kiss the little AA gal last night, about barfed up my breakfast. He just proved beyond any shadow of a doubt his own words about assaulting females… of any age. GAK. The poor child’s parents need a good talking to.
Baud
@Kay:
Not crazy. Trump v. Clinton is simply bringing out everyone’s true nature. For example, before this election, most of us probably would have thought Huntsman was a better person than Romney. We would have been wrong.
MomSense
@Schlemazel:
I’m definitely not dismissing concerns about violence. Things are pretty heated where I live and the background check referendum adds to the tension.
Jesse
@Schlemazel: Look, in all seriousness… what’s your point? These people are going to act out, possibly including violence and loss of life, and therefore… we should let them have their way? I honestly don’t get it.
Matt McIrvin
I suspect that the truth is closer to Sam Wang’s projections than 538’s: he has Clinton’s win probability at 97%. That doesn’t mean a landslide, by historic terms; high probability is not the same thing as high vote share. Her projected electoral margin is smaller than Obama’s in 2008, more like Obama’s in 2012–even though the trajectory of the race is looking more like the ’08 endgame at this point.
The Democrats got (tenuous) control of the Senate in 2008. They didn’t in 2012.
That’s the key. Despite what hopeful people have been saying, control of the House is probably out of reach, and the Senate is absolutely up in the air, poised on a knife edge. If the Republicans still have a majority in the Senate, they could cause havoc by obstructing appointments. This goes way beyond the Supreme Court–I think there’s a real chance that they will decide to halt all executive appointments for four full years, to deny Clinton a Cabinet or any permanent upper-level executive-branch leadership, and leave the new administration dead in the water. They have the power to do it. By causing sufficient chaos and making Clinton look powerless and ineffective, they can create the conditions for a Republican President in 2020.
So at this point, I would urge progressives to go out and vote for Democratic Senate candidates (and other federal, state and local offices) even if they can’t bring themselves to vote for Hillary Clinton. The third-party candidates, as frustrating as they are, may serve a useful purpose, by making the difference for these people between voting and not voting.
Kay
@Gindy51:
Ugh. Me too. People who handle kids like that set me off. My daughter used to say “put me DOWN” all outraged dignity. I loved that. You can’t just grab people! It’s bad behavior. She was like 3 and she knew this. Trump is 70.
The comparison with the Clinton body language with children is really striking. She’s hanging back physically, looking at their faces on meeting them. She sees them as people. It’s important they come to you.
raven
@Kay: The IBEW local used to host a big softball tournament on the fields I was in charge of. They did a lot of free work installing light and such so we suspended all rules and let them have at it!
Matt McIrvin
@Matt McIrvin:
I misremembered here: the Democrats retained a 51-seat Senate majority in 2012 (they lost it in 2014). Not filibuster-proof, though.
Percysowner
I Voted yesterday and am scheduled to canvass Thursday and Saturday. I’m going to stop by the Board of Elections and get absentee voter applications for my daughter and son-in-law.
The Golux
@craigie:
Gee, we stopped using our fax machine when our coal supply ran out.
OzarkHillbilly
@Baud: This is how the Guardian headlined it:
It’s a f’n joke.
Kay
@raven:
I think I get on their nerves because I am genuinely interested in what people do. I noticed they have “low voltage” and “high voltage” apprentices. No one will tell me if one is considered more daring and devil may care than other, even just among themselves :)
One of the carpenters showed me pictures on his phone of how they build that metal pipe scaffolding on job sites. I didn’t know carpenters did that. Since almost no commercial facilities are built out of wood they had to be doing something, but I never thought about it.
bemused
@Kay:
I also immediately thought how obvious it is that Barak and Michelle really enjoy and care about kids. When Barak interacts with kids, it’s not just for political show. He genuinely loves it and it’s so much fun to watch him and the kids having a good time.
WereBear
@Tissue Thin Pseudonym: That is really cool.
Baud
@OzarkHillbilly: Yeah, lefty publications really aren’t much better.
rikyrah
@bemused:
Children can sense his goodness and decency. It’s been in picture after picture. ??
bemused
@rikyrah:
Yes and video after video. If I think back far enough to when I was a kid, ages ago, I still have memories of adults that I could tell didn’t like kids at all and those who did. Some bitchy teachers come to mind.
Matt McIrvin
@Kay: Well, Trump’s appears to be.
A lot of people really don’t want any politics in their politics. They consider it filthy and dishonest for politicians to actually be strategizing behind the scenes; it comes across as insincerity. Trump’s apparent lack of the canny politician’s affect is one of the things that makes people rate him as more honest than Hillary Clinton even though everything that comes out of his mouth is an obvious, blatant lie.
It’s the same fantasy that propels all those political comedies about an ordinary guy who stumbles into the Presidency, or a politician who starts saying outrageous things because they’re true and wins the hearts of the people. It’s what makes “outsider” campaigns appealing: the idea that you can have a politician who doesn’t do politics, and that this would make them more sincere.
raven
@Kay: There is a great deal of scamming going on.
OzarkHillbilly
@Kay:
:-)
satby
Good morning everyone!
The countdown to the end of this election is on. I’m early voting either this week or next. Telling my kids to get ‘er done before election day too. The danger I see at this point is that the disgust and fatigue are setting in hard with everybody, and if they wait they may not turn out. That works fine if they’re normally R voters, but not if they’re lackadaisical Dem voters.
JPL
Wahoo! I voted and just in case there is any doubt, I’m with her!
raven
Man the Joe whine this morning is deafening.
JPL
@raven: Did you post the pups pictures? I saw the newspaper article, but not pics of the individual pups.
hovercraft
@raven:
Yes the whine about the coastal elites calling the salt of the earth people ignorant and deplorable, and offending them and calling them racist has offended them. The media and the late night shows mocking them is pushing them to buy the media is rigged and biased about them.
hovercraft
Joe whines that the last couple of weeks has been deplorable, it has been biased against the Trump, just like at the beginning they were biased against Bernie and his massive crowds. It took Chris Cillizza to push back and point out that Trump creates the media frenzy around him, he says and does stuff to create it. Joe says that since Trump says and does stupid shit every day, so it’s not news anymore. Willie says that the media decided that Trump was too uncouth to be president so they decided to stop him.
PST
@Kay:
Maybe they get “conducted”. My wife and I already voted in Chicago so we will go to Toledo to canvass over the pre-election weekend. Then she can drive voters on Tuesday while I sit around a polling place as a lawyer-observer. We were kids in Toledo half a century ago and still have family there, so it’s the logical swing state location for us. Sure hope Joe the Plumber stays away from my station.
raven
@JPL: Here’s an album.
Kay
@Matt McIrvin:
I actually blame “movement” conservatives for this idea that someone who knows nothing about government would be good at government. It’s ideological- it serves small government ends but it demeans and minimizes experience and “experience” means something- it’s part of the value people bring to work.
In their quest for no taxes they have devalued work of all kinds. They did damage to everyone.
We have this local dope running as a Trump revolutionary. You know what he is? He’s a guy who ran a failing business for 20 years. He sold and engraved the statues they hand out at school sporting events. The towns around here are sports crazy so he has a guaranteed kind of subsistence “market”. The only reason he isn’t homeless is because his wife is a school teacher and she subsidizes his fake job. Unlike with Trump, everyone here knows this and he will lose.
raven
@JPL: This is a nice blog post someone did.
Betty Cracker
@rikyrah: Like this one:
Kay
@PST:
Oh, that’s nice. We had canvassers from as far away as Massachusetts in ’12. They came to the door and this same son (who is quiet) wouldn’t volunteer that he had already voted for Obama. I listened to them trying to make this silent person talk for 3 minutes and finally yelled from the living room “he voted for Obama”. He would have let them talk forever, just smiling and nodding. He’s a riddle :)
JPL
@raven: How cute and thanks for the link.
Kay
@hovercraft:
Morning Joe has to cover their ass for promoting Trump for 6 months. Please. They’re worried about that show and their reputations.
They have to extricate themselves from the stain of promoting this racist, sexist cretin because Trump is their idea of “main street”. Trump smears shit on anyone he brushes up against and they were practically in bed with him.
Mika’s a joke with her “empower women” BS. The whole frame of that show is 1960’s and 1970’s sitcom. She’s the female straight man who showcases the men.
hovercraft
So squint and crew really want to bring Hillary back down to earth, they are hitting the Quid pro quo thing hard, saying that no one knows what happened. When Admiral Kirby of the State Dept. comes on they basically brush past the allegation and go to the question of the handling of classified information, they want to know how a petty officer would be dealt with if he mishandled classified information, would he be court marshaled, and would he maintain or even get access to even more classified information. Would he be able to get away with a private server. They seem to trying to make up their perceived media bias on Trump by going back to the server.
Steve in the ATL
I voted yesterday and it felt great to cast my ballot for Hillary!
Now, with the help of Acorn, the New Black Panther Party, and a list of dead people from Chicago, I plan to vote several more times!
OzarkHillbilly
@Kay: Heh. My youngest made the mistake of having a conversation with some local 7th Day Adventists. They kept coming back, certain they were on the verge of converting this teenage atheist, and I kept letting them try (they were always very polite and asked permission each time). I figured he started it, he could end it.
Steve in the ATL
@hovercraft: that’s a great strategy. We all know that there is no way that Colin Powell or Condaleeza Rice could have gotten away with using a private server.
Steve in the ATL
@raven: I saw a lot of great dog parade pics in my Facebook feed. Looks like it was an awesome time!
MomSense
@raven:
Fantastic. Looks like the people had as much fun as the dogs.
raven
@Steve in the ATL: It was swell!
amk
@Matt McIrvin: Nonsense. donnie dick’s unfav is worse than the rethug party’s. He is ‘famous’ because he panders to the base’s innate racism. It starts and ends there. Rest is all word salad bs.
Peale
@hovercraft: thank god she’s a civilian. Our military justice system is so tough. Entire platoons are in the brig or stockade or whatever awaiting execution by walking the firing squad. As commander and chief wouldn’t she have to walk the firing squad? I bet 1,000s of soldiers are executed every day for conduct violations and she wants to lead them. With her criminal behavior and own servers? I mean, isn’t Secretary of State merely the head of a branch of the military anyway? Why not throw her in the brig?
debit
@Steve in the ATL: You realize your comment will become the basis for the next voter fraud freakout, right?
Miss Bianca
phone-banking tonight in Walsenburg at the Democratic Party Office! Fired up, ready to go!
hedgehog mobile
@Miss Bianca: Woot! I’ll be in South Jeffco phonebanking. (waves)
workworkwork
@Raven: I also do course and curriculum development. (Next up: Web analytics)
I like it a lot. I can do it from home, make my own schedule and they give me some room to innovate.
Miss Bianca
@hedgehog mobile: Virtual high-five cross the state! : )
@workworkwork: Speaking of virtual high-fives cross the state, how you doing? Hoping you’re recovering well.
WaterGirl
@Tissue Thin Pseudonym: That’s so great, JMN!
Miss Bianca
@Tissue Thin Pseudonym: From what I’ve read so far of BP, I find it hard to believe that any of the Gophers would be offended. (still only about 2/3 of the way thru’, for some reason I have a hard time reading novels online! But enjoying it!)
Ruckus
@Botsplainer:
Of course the boat was designed to fail, look who built it.
Ruckus
@Kay:
Many people have no idea how most things work. Their world is a tiny little place where they know everyone and everything. The most planing they do is what’s for dinner and they solve that by having the same thing every Tues, same thing every Wed…… The real world would surprise (and scare) them right down to their socks.
p.a.
@Miss Bianca: If my experience last week is an example, bring a tablet/laptop as well as your phone. It helps go through the e-lists and scripts without having to bounce between pages on your cell every call. Also too chargers.
Mike in dc
Anyone seen Iron Sky? One of the sub plots is that 21st Century Nazis provide themes, imagery and rhetoric to promote an American presidential election campaign.
Chillingly prophetic, in retrospect.
eclare
@Tissue Thin Pseudonym: Great to hear! Congratulations!
Tilda Swinton's Bald Cap
LOL
Here’s the link.
workworkwork
@Miss Bianca: My blood sugar numbers are down this morning, so I’m feeling pretty good (the post-surgery meds I’m on kick the glucose up). Plus I had some of my famous crustless homemade quiche for breakfast this morning. (broccoli and swiss cheese).
I’m practically feeling human.
Miss Bianca
@raven: HUSKY SHARK!!