In the interests of efficiency and open government, trumpaas (Trump As A Service) seeks to provide a modern, RESTful, scalable engine for the generation of rhetoric and quotes in the style of Donald Trump.
RV from NZ (but in UK)
5.
Penn
Of course it’s not a deal breaker. For most people it either affirms what they suspected anyway or they have convinced themselves that it’s all just a conspiracy. It’s another log onto the bonfire rather than being the entire blaze itself.
6.
lemongingerporkstirfrychopsticksoptional
That’s getting up there.
7.
Amir Khalid
@Steve!:
It sounds like the House Republican caucus would be buying itself all kinds of trouble if it did sack Paul Ryan — who had to be persuaded to take the job in the first place. Who would want to be Speaker after him? You’d have to be crazy to take the job if you know that actually trying to do it is considered a sacking offence.
8.
Steve!
@Amir Khalid: That’s true, and a very rational thing to think about. Which is why it will never occur to the Freedom Caucus.
The work found that a tiny fraction of them seemed to be behaving strangely.
Yes, they’re posting to Balloon Juice under the handle “srv”.
10.
Jeffro
@Steve!: If there isn’t already, there ought to be a “10 Biggest Casualties of Trump’s Run for Prez” list going. Paul Ryan’s presidential ambitions would have to be near the top of that list.
(Heck to save room, his ambitions + Christie’s, Cruz’s, and Rubio’s ought to be bundled together as 1 item)
11.
Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious
Why do you people continue to feed srv? Just ignore him. Trump is lined up for a historical loss so he’s got nothing right now.
12.
lemongingerporkstirfrychopsticksoptional
Why do you people continue to feed srv? Just ignore him. Trump is lined up for a historical loss so he’s got nothing right now.
13.
Steve!
@Jeffro: It’s going to be tough to write all those Deepest GOP Bench Ever articles in 2020, but I’m sure somebody will manage.
14.
Betsy
When I donated just now, I happened to look at my ActBlue contribution history. It was interesting to see that I gave to Tim Kaine in 2012 as a “high-value race”. I’d no recollection of it — probably an ask showed up here on BJ to put certain candidates over the edge. Feel good :)
Crappy clickbait. The guy is arguing against his own headline.
16.
germy
BuzzFeed reports that the American Media Institute (AMI) “proposed an 11th-hour effort to place news articles critical of Hillary Clinton and other Democrats in black newspapers in the runup to the November election.”
AMI bills itself as an “independent source of exclusive in-depth investigative journalism,” but the non-profit is largely funded by right-wing donors and is headed by Richard Miniter, a conservative author and journalist with a long history at right-wing publications.
In recent months AMI has placed “investigations” with a right-wing tilt in mainstream outlets including Fusion, Politico Magazine, and U.S. News & World Report. AMI’s 2014 tax filings indicate that it is largely funded through Donors Trust, a right-wing group that has been called “the dark-money ATM of the conservative movement.”
Buzzfeed reported that AMI “approached Republican donors to finance” articles attacking Clinton to be distributed through AMI’s Urban News Service. A source told Buzzfeed that the plan “looks like voter suppression” intended to decrease Democratic turnout
Oh, wait, that’s the cat padding my thigh trying to get my attention for a head rub.
18.
Steve!
@amk: It’s true that an actual vote to remove Ryan is unlikely to succeed in the lame duck session, but the larger point about his political career being seriously damaged by Trump strikes me as correct (and hilarious).
19.
germy
@Villago Delenda Est: Another reason to take Politico with several grains of salt.
20.
enplaned
Change it to a stretch goal of $100K?
21.
WaterGirl
@Steve!: Is there a short excerpt of what’s in the Forbes article? They won’t let me in because they detect adblock, and I refuse to whitelist them, so I can’t see the article.
22.
Betty Cracker
Elizabeth Warren announcing for Hillary at a NH now.
I don’t know if I have the incentive to contribute any more. Ever since Tom Hayden’s original Port Huron Declaration was watered down into that mealy-mouthed shilly-shallying revised version, I’ve lost all my appetite for politics.
I may have been way too optimistic a week ago when I posted that it was “hard to come up with a realistic scenario that ends with Paul Ryan (R-WI) as speaker of the House of Representatives in the next Congress.”
Never mind the next Congress: It now looks like Ryan could be deposed or forced to resign this Congress in the lame duck session that begins a week after Election Day.
In other words, Ryan may no longer be speaker about four weeks from now.
I say this after hearing from several highly reliable sources that the House Freedom Caucus is seriously considering doing to Ryan what it did to former Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) by threatening him with a privileged motion to vacate the chair. If a majority of the House supported the motion, Ryan would be removed immediately as speaker.
Getting 218 House Republicans to vote for a motion to vacate won’t be easy.
He then goes on to say that it’s unlikely that this vote will actually happen, but Ryan could decide (like Boehner) to resign the speakership if he sees it coming. Like amk said, it’s not likely to actually happen, but it’s fun to think about.
BTW, if you open Forbes links in Incognito Mode, they don’t kick you out for having Adblock.
@srv: Well then, I can think of several GOP Senate hopefuls that should get on the gropenfurher bus since its gonna work out so well this election cycle.
@Steve!: thanks for the excerpt. I did try to open the Forbes link in a private window (before asking you for an excerpt) but it just loaded an empty page. So I think they must be on to that trick, too.
33.
amk
@Gin & Tonic: Good point. I forgot she is now coattailing.
@amk: Just a guess, maybe to insure that Ayotte loses too!
lol Comment was a little late
37.
Origuy
I put in some money the other day. Immediately I got spam from half a dozen campaigns and it’s not letting up. Did I miss a checkbox that told them to put me on everybody’s email list? This didn’t happen the last time I contributed to ActBlue, last election.
38.
Patricia Kayden
@Jeffro: Billy Bush’s termination is also on that list of casualties.
Reptilican Party ™ ‘adults’ lost control, situation now so effed up they’d be satisfied if pre-teens were running things instead of current WATBs.
44.
Immanentize
@Amir Khalid: I am working at a University that has had five presidents in six years. We have an acting president right now and we are starting a new presidential search. Who would want to be president at suck a place? Scores of well-credentialed applicants, it seems. Ambition is often blind to risk.
ETA to amend “suck” to “such” above — but it was such a perfect typo….
45.
Immanentize
@amk: For Warren, it is an easy trip North and another way to annoy Trump. Win Win!
@?BillinGlendaleCA: “27” should go into the hall of mathematical fame – statistics division. In political statistics, that number repeatedly crops up, the way pi and e repeatedly crop up in both straightforward and less obvious embedded ways in both pure and applied mathematics. “27” is like a perverse version of the “Golden ratio“, where instead of being a ratio of proportions in visual art that is nearly always attractive, 27 is a ratio that is nearly always ugly when it arises in a political context.
Michelle doing Bollywood as the White House celebrates Diwali.
Goddam, I am going to miss the Obamas. They are some Bad Muthaf#king Hombres!
I see that video of Obama’s 2008 victory speech are popping up on YouTube. Seems so long ago, already.
53.
japa21
My wife and I have just assured that Hillary will win Illinois (not that that was ever in doubt) plus that Tammy Duckworth will replace the awful Mark Kirk, that Raja Krishnamoorthi will replace Tammy in the House and that the Illinois House and Senate will remain a thorn in the side of Rauner.
In 2012 when we voted early we had to wait for close to an hour. Today we were in and out in 15 minutes. But then, they had twice as many machines going this time around.
54.
daryljfontaine
@japa21: Early voting on the northwest side was nice and brisk just after the location opened; most of the initial bottleneck was in election workers looking up voter reg details to get folks their cards. Took about 15 minutes for me, too, but I didn’t notice any appreciable increase in the number of machines.
D
55.
Matt McIrvin
@cmorenc: It makes me want to figure out some mathematical significance to 0.27. It’s close to e/10, obviously, but the 10 seems a bit arbitrary. 1/e and 1/pi are a bit too large. e/pi^2?
Buzzfeed reported that AMI “approached Republican donors to finance” articles attacking Clinton to be distributed through AMI’s Urban News Service. A source told Buzzfeed that the plan “looks like voter suppression” intended to decrease Democratic turnout
That’s not voter suppression. That’s being underhanded in trying to convince people not to bother voting. Voter suppression is like what Wisconsin and North Carolina have tried, making it illegal or otherwise impossible to vote, not merely discouraging it. Conflating the two makes actual voter suppression seem not as bad as it actually is.
It makes me want to figure out some mathematical significance to 0.27. It’s close to e/10, obviously, but the 10 seems a bit arbitrary. 1/e and 1/pi are a bit too large. e/pi^2?
I think there’s a genuine significance, but it’s political: Just over 1/2 of 1/2. IOW, if you’re running under “majority of the majority” rules, it’s just above the absolute minimum to take control of the majority group in a highly polarized situation.
Dark matter is an unidentified type of matter comprising approximately 27% of the mass and energy in the observable universe[1] that is not accounted for by dark energy, baryonic matter (ordinary matter), and neutrinos.[2]
59.
Matt McIrvin
@Fair Economist: That’s an excellent point–you’ve got an actual mechanism.
LOL. Perfect. The 27% are the dark matter of American public life.
The most widely accepted hypothesis on the form for dark matter is that it is composed of weakly interacting massive particles (WIMPs) that interact only through gravity and the weak force.
62.
Fair Economist
The Republican Senators are crawling back to Trump. Crapo (R-ID) has re-endorsed him. There’s no risk of losing a general in Idaho so that means either he’s a total slimeball or the Trumplings are a clear majority of Republicans in Idaho and he fears a primary.
@Matt McIrvin: That 27% might have a statistical value in confidence levels like 99.7% and 95% and 68%.
65.
Corner Stone
Trump making the pre-play for his media adventure coming Nov 9th.
66.
Matt McIrvin
@Doug R: It’s very close to the amount of a normal distribution that lies between 1 and 2 standard deviations of the mean (13.6% on each side), but that isn’t tremendously significant in itself.
67.
Corner Stone
He’s abandoned his prompters and is manic again.
68.
Kay
I went to headquarters Sunday- I always feel silly saying “headquarters” because it’s a single room storefront- HOWEVER. Very good feeling there among Democrats. They’re all just chirping away industriously working. It feels like a state issue campaign more than a Presidential campaign, weirdly under the radar.
Maybe it’s good there have been so few think pieces on Clinton supporters.
OTOH there’s the classic quip from stand-up comic Ron White about a guy who thought he was in good enough physical shape to withstand staying outside in the face of the wind during a Cat-3 hurricane: “if you get run over by a Volvo, it doesn’t matter how many sit-ups you did that morning”.
Of course, the accompanying line with that is: “it isn’t that the wind is blowing, it’s what it’s blowing” (in a hurricane).
70.
Corner Stone
They’re against you. They are against what we represent. I am your voice.
That’s not so subtle.
71.
Corner Stone
Man, I am actually kind of impressed. Trump not only speaks authentic frontier gibberish but can also translate from Russian and also German.
72.
Immanentize
@Corner Stone: So I am assuming you are watching Trump in Florida and reporting incomplete random thoughts and phrases?
73.
Rock the World
Don’t look now but several polls have this TOO CLOSE TO CALL, three in fact!
IBD poll was THE most reliable in ’08 and ’12! And Ohio and Iowa are looking great for Trump. We’re gonna give ’em something for the world to see November 8th!
@Rock the World: All we need is UNLIMITED CORPORATE CASH, amirite? Contained in all those Brink’s trucks backing up as we speak?
77.
Immanentize
@hueyplong: I suggest we follow the lead of rock the world and just not vote. But only if you are also from a foreign country….
ETA — Also, too, use a lot of CAPITALS!
78.
Poopyman
@Matt McIrvin: It’s the left/right end of a Gaussian distribution. I suspect there’s some sociological nexus here that I can’t figure out, since it’s not clear what the hell it is we’re measuring, even.
latest missive from the Kirkpatrick campaign here in AZ has them citing a recent WaPo poll that puts them within 3 of Johnny Maverick
82.
Jeffro
Hey whaddya know, the dude can’t kick the habit…all that love from the crowds…Trump doesn’t want to give it up.
I think I suggested that post-election, he might keep his act on the road, doing “Rage-a-palooza”s – it’s what he wants and what his supporters want, to mainline that hate live and in person, keep wearing those awful t-shirts and flying those Confederate flags. Had no idea I was doing anything beyond wondering aloud…
83.
FlipYrWhig
@Gin & Tonic: Jeb is about to open up his can of whoop-ass, this time for sure!
Buzzfeed reported that AMI “approached Republican donors to finance” articles attacking Clinton to be distributed through AMI’s Urban News Service. A source told Buzzfeed that the plan “looks like voter suppression” intended to decrease Democratic turnout
They would need to get it on the radio, and into beauty and barber shops, and if you think this conspiracy would not be widely disseminated and talked about in all of those plus black churches, then you don’t know black people. Which they obviously don’t.
So carry on, piss people pff and watch them stand in line all day.
97.
catclub
@D58826: srv’s point was that Clinton got more popular during impeachment, and therefore, Trump will get more popular.
There are numerous ways that the two cases are not similar or predictive.
@peach flavored shampoo:
Jet, Ebony, and to be fair there are actual black newspapers in some cites. I don’t know any names but I have seen audits from black newspapers on TV, rarely, but they exist.
102.
The Moar You Know
FPers/Mods: can we get this latest incarnation of RacismToRant kicked again?
@SFAW: I would disagree. His constant inability to call even one race properly (President Jeb “Brinks Trucks” Bush amirite?) and frantic goalpost shuffling is something I find endlessly entertaining, but I’m more than a bit of a sadist at heart.
ETA: of course, if he starts with any of that racist horseshit again feel free to nail him to a cross.
@Steve!: I saw some speculation that even if the D’s don’t take the House most of the R’s that do lose will be moderates and/or allies of Ryan’s. That will give the crazy caucus even more power on the R side of the aisle. While they can keep Ryan from winning another term as speaker, they don’t have enough votes to put their own choice (one of whom is Gohmert) in the chair. Ergo a coalition of democrats and moderate republicans will hold the balance of power and result in Speaker Ryan toeing the D line or better yet Nancy back in the chair. If the D’s gain control of the Senate then Hillary might get a few things done.
Now off the repaint that pony pink and glue the horn back on his head and call it a unicorn(sigh) .
105.
Matt McIrvin
@The Moar You Know: Remember the time he accused us of being irrational Trump boosters?
I would disagree with you. Finding someone’s behavior “despicable” is not compatible with an approval rating at 73%:
After his impeachment proceedings in 1998 and 1999, Clinton’s rating reached its highest point at 73% approval. He finished with a Gallup poll approval rating of 65%, higher than that of every other departing president measured since Harry Truman.
His only other option was to sit around the house and play video games while waiting for the bankruptcy lawyers to show up and take his house. Now he’s hitched a sweet ride on the grift train!
Betty Cracker: “We women are going to march our nasty feet to cast out nasty votes to get you out of our lives !” – Dying here – SO brilliant
Actually, I would say “Brilliantly nasty”.
113.
redundant backup of kitteh haz all your meme
Polls polls always the polls. For whatever reason, people around here always seem to be looking for the outliers that say Dems are losing. With Repubs it’s just the opposite. They cling to any outlier poll they can find.
The Pittsburgh Courier. And old and very respected black newspaper here. Well known nationally since the 1920s and 30s.
115.
Crackers and Toast
And the Trump saving face sore loser train just keeps on rolling right until Nov 09 and beyond. He can’t even admit defeat much less a humiliating one. Gonna call it a ‘rigged election’ till the day he dies.
Apparently Trump is now claiming that one of Podesta’s emails (from 2008, not actually by or to Podesta, and about some internal campaign polling) proves that Podesta rigged nearly every media poll in the world against him. He’s completely unmoored from the dimensions we live in.
118.
Gelfling 545
@peach flavored shampoo: In my city we have The Challenger, a local weekly that, though obviously not only read by African Americans, tends to emphasize issues of importance in the black community. Their motto is “Your Key Source of News from the African American POV. “. It is one of several alternative papers that are fairly widely read here as our regular daily paper is crap.
Kellyanne must be just screaming into the abyss at this. Totally hilarious that he doesn’t understand why a campaign would over sample a particular demo in its internal polling.
The Bull Elephant of the pachyderp of Republicanism has gone full musth
…a periodic condition in bull (male) elephants, characterized by highly aggressive behavior and accompanied by a large rise in reproductive hormones.
… bulls in musth have often been known to attack female elephants, regardless of whether or not the females are in heat. There has been speculation that musth is connected to natural periodic reorganization of dominance among males in elephant herds.
121.
Miss Bianca
@Omnes Omnibus: “Ryan has enough cunning to survive.”
Not if his weaselly little ass loses his election. Which probably isn’t likely, but is rather delicious to think about.
122.
Matt McIrvin
@Roger Moore: That has a nice sort of continued-fraction-like quality to it.
123.
Matt McIrvin
@geg6: I think he’s just citing some Twitter nonsense without even pausing to figure out what it’s saying.
I was in a faculty meeting (for the math department of a small Midwestern university) which was focused on the search for a new Department Chair. After listening to everyone talk about the qualities desired in a new Chair, one of the profs stood up and said, “Why would anyone like that want to come here?”
The Baltimore Afro-American, commonly known as The Afro, is a weekly newspaper published in Baltimore, Maryland, USA. It is the flagship newspaper of the Afro-American chain and the longest-running African-American family-owned newspaper in the United States, established in 1892 by John H. Murphy, Sr.
For some years I lived a few blocks north of the N. Charles St. HQ & still drive past it a few times a week.
It makes me want to figure out some mathematical significance to 0.27. It’s close to e/10, obviously, but the 10 seems a bit arbitrary. 1/e and 1/pi are a bit too large. e/pi^2?
I am not nearly high enough for this post
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Steve!
HAHAHAHA fuck Paul Ryan.
Usual caveats about maybe it’s a mistaken report, etc. etc. etc. But still, couldn’t happen to a nicer awful person.
Villago Delenda Est
@srv: Source? Kellyanne Conway?
?BillinGlendaleCA
@srv: There’s that number again.
Royston Vasey
In the interests of efficiency and open government, trumpaas (Trump As A Service) seeks to provide a modern, RESTful, scalable engine for the generation of rhetoric and quotes in the style of Donald Trump.
RV from NZ (but in UK)
Penn
Of course it’s not a deal breaker. For most people it either affirms what they suspected anyway or they have convinced themselves that it’s all just a conspiracy. It’s another log onto the bonfire rather than being the entire blaze itself.
lemongingerporkstirfrychopsticksoptional
That’s getting up there.
Amir Khalid
@Steve!:
It sounds like the House Republican caucus would be buying itself all kinds of trouble if it did sack Paul Ryan — who had to be persuaded to take the job in the first place. Who would want to be Speaker after him? You’d have to be crazy to take the job if you know that actually trying to do it is considered a sacking offence.
Steve!
@Amir Khalid: That’s true, and a very rational thing to think about. Which is why it will never occur to the Freedom Caucus.
Villago Delenda Est
@srv:
Yes, they’re posting to Balloon Juice under the handle “srv”.
Jeffro
@Steve!: If there isn’t already, there ought to be a “10 Biggest Casualties of Trump’s Run for Prez” list going. Paul Ryan’s presidential ambitions would have to be near the top of that list.
(Heck to save room, his ambitions + Christie’s, Cruz’s, and Rubio’s ought to be bundled together as 1 item)
Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious
Why do you people continue to feed srv? Just ignore him. Trump is lined up for a historical loss so he’s got nothing right now.
lemongingerporkstirfrychopsticksoptional
Why do you people continue to feed srv? Just ignore him. Trump is lined up for a historical loss so he’s got nothing right now.
Steve!
@Jeffro: It’s going to be tough to write all those Deepest GOP Bench Ever articles in 2020, but I’m sure somebody will manage.
Betsy
When I donated just now, I happened to look at my ActBlue contribution history. It was interesting to see that I gave to Tim Kaine in 2012 as a “high-value race”. I’d no recollection of it — probably an ask showed up here on BJ to put certain candidates over the edge. Feel good :)
amk
@Steve!:
Crappy clickbait. The guy is arguing against his own headline.
germy
Villago Delenda Est
@germy: I am shaking in abject terror.
Oh, wait, that’s the cat padding my thigh trying to get my attention for a head rub.
Steve!
@amk: It’s true that an actual vote to remove Ryan is unlikely to succeed in the lame duck session, but the larger point about his political career being seriously damaged by Trump strikes me as correct (and hilarious).
germy
@Villago Delenda Est: Another reason to take Politico with several grains of salt.
enplaned
Change it to a stretch goal of $100K?
WaterGirl
@Steve!: Is there a short excerpt of what’s in the Forbes article? They won’t let me in because they detect adblock, and I refuse to whitelist them, so I can’t see the article.
Betty Cracker
Elizabeth Warren announcing for Hillary at a NH now.
peach flavored shampoo
@germy: What’s an example of a “black newspaper”?
patroclus
I don’t know if I have the incentive to contribute any more. Ever since Tom Hayden’s original Port Huron Declaration was watered down into that mealy-mouthed shilly-shallying revised version, I’ve lost all my appetite for politics.
Steve!
@WaterGirl:
He then goes on to say that it’s unlikely that this vote will actually happen, but Ryan could decide (like Boehner) to resign the speakership if he sees it coming. Like amk said, it’s not likely to actually happen, but it’s fun to think about.
BTW, if you open Forbes links in Incognito Mode, they don’t kick you out for having Adblock.
patroclus
@peach flavored shampoo: The Chicago Defender is still going strong!
SarahT
@Betty Cracker: “We women are going to march our nasty feet to cast out nasty votes to get you out of our lives !” – Dying here – SO brilliant
SiubhanDuinne
@peach flavored shampoo:
@patroclus:
As is the Atlanta Daily World!
Dmbeaster
@srv: Well then, I can think of several GOP Senate hopefuls that should get on the gropenfurher bus since its gonna work out so well this election cycle.
amk
@Betty Cracker:
Any particular reason why both of them are stumping in NH where she is leading almost by 10 points?
Gin & Tonic
@amk: To help bury Ayotte?
WaterGirl
@Steve!: thanks for the excerpt. I did try to open the Forbes link in a private window (before asking you for an excerpt) but it just loaded an empty page. So I think they must be on to that trick, too.
amk
@Gin & Tonic: Good point. I forgot she is now coattailing.
amk
dogwood
@amk:
Maggie Hassan.
JPL
@amk: Just a guess, maybe to insure that Ayotte loses too!
lol Comment was a little late
Origuy
I put in some money the other day. Immediately I got spam from half a dozen campaigns and it’s not letting up. Did I miss a checkbox that told them to put me on everybody’s email list? This didn’t happen the last time I contributed to ActBlue, last election.
Patricia Kayden
@Jeffro: Billy Bush’s termination is also on that list of casualties.
WereBear
@Amir Khalid: Dr. Smith voice: “Oh, the pain! The pain!”
p.a.
@srv: don’t. forget. to. drink. your. Ovaltine.
Nicholas Mueller
@amk: hassan
Immanentize
@peach flavored shampoo: Bay State Banner is one here in the Boston areas.
Or are you just trolling?
p.a.
Reptilican Party ™ ‘adults’ lost control, situation now so effed up they’d be satisfied if pre-teens were running things instead of current WATBs.
Immanentize
@Amir Khalid: I am working at a University that has had five presidents in six years. We have an acting president right now and we are starting a new presidential search. Who would want to be president at suck a place? Scores of well-credentialed applicants, it seems. Ambition is often blind to risk.
ETA to amend “suck” to “such” above — but it was such a perfect typo….
Immanentize
@amk: For Warren, it is an easy trip North and another way to annoy Trump. Win Win!
p.a.
@amk: Take that, Jan Brewer (or whatever the former Ariz gov’s name is.)
amk
amk
@p.a.: here you go.
Origuy
Michelle doing Bollywood as the White House celebrates Diwali.
cmorenc
@?BillinGlendaleCA: “27” should go into the hall of mathematical fame – statistics division. In political statistics, that number repeatedly crops up, the way pi and e repeatedly crop up in both straightforward and less obvious embedded ways in both pure and applied mathematics. “27” is like a perverse version of the “Golden ratio“, where instead of being a ratio of proportions in visual art that is nearly always attractive, 27 is a ratio that is nearly always ugly when it arises in a political context.
trollhattan
@Jeffro:
Henceforth referred to as a “Costco of Republicans.”
Brachiator
@Origuy:
Goddam, I am going to miss the Obamas. They are some Bad Muthaf#king Hombres!
I see that video of Obama’s 2008 victory speech are popping up on YouTube. Seems so long ago, already.
japa21
My wife and I have just assured that Hillary will win Illinois (not that that was ever in doubt) plus that Tammy Duckworth will replace the awful Mark Kirk, that Raja Krishnamoorthi will replace Tammy in the House and that the Illinois House and Senate will remain a thorn in the side of Rauner.
In 2012 when we voted early we had to wait for close to an hour. Today we were in and out in 15 minutes. But then, they had twice as many machines going this time around.
daryljfontaine
@japa21: Early voting on the northwest side was nice and brisk just after the location opened; most of the initial bottleneck was in election workers looking up voter reg details to get folks their cards. Took about 15 minutes for me, too, but I didn’t notice any appreciable increase in the number of machines.
D
Matt McIrvin
@cmorenc: It makes me want to figure out some mathematical significance to 0.27. It’s close to e/10, obviously, but the 10 seems a bit arbitrary. 1/e and 1/pi are a bit too large. e/pi^2?
Mike J
@germy:
That’s not voter suppression. That’s being underhanded in trying to convince people not to bother voting. Voter suppression is like what Wisconsin and North Carolina have tried, making it illegal or otherwise impossible to vote, not merely discouraging it. Conflating the two makes actual voter suppression seem not as bad as it actually is.
Fair Economist
@Matt McIrvin:
I think there’s a genuine significance, but it’s political: Just over 1/2 of 1/2. IOW, if you’re running under “majority of the majority” rules, it’s just above the absolute minimum to take control of the majority group in a highly polarized situation.
SiubhanDuinne
@cmorenc:
How about this, eh?
Matt McIrvin
@Fair Economist: That’s an excellent point–you’ve got an actual mechanism.
Walker
@cmorenc:
It keeps popping up because of confirmation bias. But it is a fun bias to have.
Steeplejack (tablet)
@SiubhanDuinne:
LOL. Perfect. The 27% are the dark matter of American public life.
Fair Economist
The Republican Senators are crawling back to Trump. Crapo (R-ID) has re-endorsed him. There’s no risk of losing a general in Idaho so that means either he’s a total slimeball or the Trumplings are a clear majority of Republicans in Idaho and he fears a primary.
OK, those two possibilities aren’t exclusive.
Omnes Omnibus
@Steve!: Ryan has enough cunning to survive.
Doug R
@Matt McIrvin: That 27% might have a statistical value in confidence levels like 99.7% and 95% and 68%.
Corner Stone
Trump making the pre-play for his media adventure coming Nov 9th.
Matt McIrvin
@Doug R: It’s very close to the amount of a normal distribution that lies between 1 and 2 standard deviations of the mean (13.6% on each side), but that isn’t tremendously significant in itself.
Corner Stone
He’s abandoned his prompters and is manic again.
Kay
I went to headquarters Sunday- I always feel silly saying “headquarters” because it’s a single room storefront- HOWEVER. Very good feeling there among Democrats. They’re all just chirping away industriously working. It feels like a state issue campaign more than a Presidential campaign, weirdly under the radar.
Maybe it’s good there have been so few think pieces on Clinton supporters.
They’re not moody and needy :)
cmorenc
@Omnes Omnibus:
OTOH there’s the classic quip from stand-up comic Ron White about a guy who thought he was in good enough physical shape to withstand staying outside in the face of the wind during a Cat-3 hurricane: “if you get run over by a Volvo, it doesn’t matter how many sit-ups you did that morning”.
Of course, the accompanying line with that is: “it isn’t that the wind is blowing, it’s what it’s blowing” (in a hurricane).
Corner Stone
They’re against you. They are against what we represent. I am your voice.
That’s not so subtle.
Corner Stone
Man, I am actually kind of impressed. Trump not only speaks authentic frontier gibberish but can also translate from Russian and also German.
Immanentize
@Corner Stone: So I am assuming you are watching Trump in Florida and reporting incomplete random thoughts and phrases?
Rock the World
Don’t look now but several polls have this TOO CLOSE TO CALL, three in fact!
IBD poll was THE most reliable in ’08 and ’12! And Ohio and Iowa are looking great for Trump. We’re gonna give ’em something for the world to see November 8th!
Roger Moore
@Matt McIrvin:
I would go with 1/(e+1).
hueyplong
@Rock the World: Oh, dear! Whatever shall we do?
Gin & Tonic
@Rock the World: All we need is UNLIMITED CORPORATE CASH, amirite? Contained in all those Brink’s trucks backing up as we speak?
Immanentize
@hueyplong: I suggest we follow the lead of rock the world and just not vote. But only if you are also from a foreign country….
ETA — Also, too, use a lot of CAPITALS!
Poopyman
@Matt McIrvin: It’s the left/right end of a Gaussian distribution. I suspect there’s some sociological nexus here that I can’t figure out, since it’s not clear what the hell it is we’re measuring, even.
DemJayhawks
@Fair Economist: Astute.
Uncle Cosmo
@srv: Aaaah crap, here we go: “Take me to your Thought Leader!“
piratedan
latest missive from the Kirkpatrick campaign here in AZ has them citing a recent WaPo poll that puts them within 3 of Johnny Maverick
Jeffro
Hey whaddya know, the dude can’t kick the habit…all that love from the crowds…Trump doesn’t want to give it up.
I think I suggested that post-election, he might keep his act on the road, doing “Rage-a-palooza”s – it’s what he wants and what his supporters want, to mainline that hate live and in person, keep wearing those awful t-shirts and flying those Confederate flags. Had no idea I was doing anything beyond wondering aloud…
FlipYrWhig
@Gin & Tonic: Jeb is about to open up his can of whoop-ass, this time for sure!
Uncle Cosmo
@Villago Delenda Est: Bazinga!
FlipYrWhig
@Immanentize: It stands for CAPITALISM!
D58826
@srv: If memory serves, the overwhelming majority of people found Bill’s conduct despicable but not impeachable.
Poopyman
@Corner Stone: It may sound like frontier gibberish to you, but it might have made perfect sense in the original Russian and/or German.
He wasn’t talking about hovercrafts and eels, was he?
Anoniminous
@Poopyman:
Applied math is SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO pre-Bourbaki.
WereBear
@Matt McIrvin: That’s the connection I’ve been trying to make! You put your finger on it for me, thanks.
Immanentize
@FlipYrWhig: OK, that was really good….
Uncle Cosmo
@trollhattan: I was thinking along the lines of The Little En-taunt, but oooooookay…
dmsilev
@Rock the World: Apparently we can add HTML linkage to the long list of things that you suck at.
msdc
@Steeplejack (tablet): Pretty sure “dark” is not the adjective I would use to describe them.
Rock the World
Investors Business Daily was THE most accurate poll in 2012 and 2008 and shows it all tied up!
http://www.drudgereport.com
NotMax
@trollhattan
Why sully the Costco name?
Howzabout ‘a pachyderp of Republicans.’
hovercraft
@germy:
They would need to get it on the radio, and into beauty and barber shops, and if you think this conspiracy would not be widely disseminated and talked about in all of those plus black churches, then you don’t know black people. Which they obviously don’t.
So carry on, piss people pff and watch them stand in line all day.
catclub
@D58826: srv’s point was that Clinton got more popular during impeachment, and therefore, Trump will get more popular.
There are numerous ways that the two cases are not similar or predictive.
SFAW
@Rock the World:
Only by their own “admission.” Everybody else? Not so much.
FPers/Mods: can we get this latest incarnation of RacismToRant kicked again?
germy
@hovercraft: I guess they figured it was worth a shot.
What did they have to lose, right?
SFAW
@NotMax:
Outstanding
hovercraft
@peach flavored shampoo:
Jet, Ebony, and to be fair there are actual black newspapers in some cites. I don’t know any names but I have seen audits from black newspapers on TV, rarely, but they exist.
The Moar You Know
@SFAW: I would disagree. His constant inability to call even one race properly (President Jeb “Brinks Trucks” Bush amirite?) and frantic goalpost shuffling is something I find endlessly entertaining, but I’m more than a bit of a sadist at heart.
ETA: of course, if he starts with any of that racist horseshit again feel free to nail him to a cross.
hovercraft
@amk:
Love that line! Go EW.
D58826
@Steve!: I saw some speculation that even if the D’s don’t take the House most of the R’s that do lose will be moderates and/or allies of Ryan’s. That will give the crazy caucus even more power on the R side of the aisle. While they can keep Ryan from winning another term as speaker, they don’t have enough votes to put their own choice (one of whom is Gohmert) in the chair. Ergo a coalition of democrats and moderate republicans will hold the balance of power and result in Speaker Ryan toeing the D line or better yet Nancy back in the chair. If the D’s gain control of the Senate then Hillary might get a few things done.
Now off the repaint that pony pink and glue the horn back on his head and call it a unicorn(sigh) .
Matt McIrvin
@The Moar You Know: Remember the time he accused us of being irrational Trump boosters?
Bill Arnold
Can somebody tell me how to find out current polling/odds for a congressional district, specifically
New York’s 18th Congressional District?
Tx for any pointers.
NotMax
@D58826
Perish the thought of it coming to pass but expect stories to begin percolating on Nov. 9 of a “movement” to offer the speakership to Trump.
prob50
@Villago Delenda Est:
Hmmm…A likely story.
obsequiesclarvoyant
Such a pleasure going to PEC these days.
JR in WV
@D58826:
I would disagree with you. Finding someone’s behavior “despicable” is not compatible with an approval rating at 73%:
The Moar You Know
Well, this was inevitable:
Curt Schilling Joins Breitbart
His only other option was to sit around the house and play video games while waiting for the bankruptcy lawyers to show up and take his house. Now he’s hitched a sweet ride on the grift train!
prob50
@SarahT:
Actually, I would say “Brilliantly nasty”.
redundant backup of kitteh haz all your meme
Polls polls always the polls. For whatever reason, people around here always seem to be looking for the outliers that say Dems are losing. With Repubs it’s just the opposite. They cling to any outlier poll they can find.
geg6
@peach flavored shampoo:
The Pittsburgh Courier. And old and very respected black newspaper here. Well known nationally since the 1920s and 30s.
Crackers and Toast
And the Trump saving face sore loser train just keeps on rolling right until Nov 09 and beyond. He can’t even admit defeat much less a humiliating one. Gonna call it a ‘rigged election’ till the day he dies.
Anoniminous
@peach flavored shampoo:
New York Amsterdam News.
ETA: this time with the embeddedness of extra linky thing …
New York Amsterdam News
Matt McIrvin
Apparently Trump is now claiming that one of Podesta’s emails (from 2008, not actually by or to Podesta, and about some internal campaign polling) proves that Podesta rigged nearly every media poll in the world against him. He’s completely unmoored from the dimensions we live in.
Gelfling 545
@peach flavored shampoo: In my city we have The Challenger, a local weekly that, though obviously not only read by African Americans, tends to emphasize issues of importance in the black community. Their motto is “Your Key Source of News from the African American POV. “. It is one of several alternative papers that are fairly widely read here as our regular daily paper is crap.
geg6
@Matt McIrvin:
Kellyanne must be just screaming into the abyss at this. Totally hilarious that he doesn’t understand why a campaign would over sample a particular demo in its internal polling.
Anoniminous
@Matt McIrvin:
The Bull Elephant of the pachyderp of Republicanism has gone full musth
Miss Bianca
@Omnes Omnibus: “Ryan has enough cunning to survive.”
Not if his weaselly little ass loses his election. Which probably isn’t likely, but is rather delicious to think about.
Matt McIrvin
@Roger Moore: That has a nice sort of continued-fraction-like quality to it.
Matt McIrvin
@geg6: I think he’s just citing some Twitter nonsense without even pausing to figure out what it’s saying.
SiubhanDuinne
@JR in WV:
And of course, that would be a disapproval rating of . . . .
Cermet
Glad to have helped reach/past the first two goals!.
AnneW
@Immanentize:
I was in a faculty meeting (for the math department of a small Midwestern university) which was focused on the search for a new Department Chair. After listening to everyone talk about the qualities desired in a new Chair, one of the profs stood up and said, “Why would anyone like that want to come here?”
Uncle Cosmo
@Anoniminous: From Baltimore, The Afro:
For some years I lived a few blocks north of the N. Charles St. HQ & still drive past it a few times a week.
Steve in the ATL
@Matt McIrvin:
I am not nearly high enough for this post