There’s a lot of smoke with Trump & Russia. Maybe there’s no fire, but HE SHOULD RELEASE HIS TAXES SO WE KNOW.
— Matt O'Brien (@ObsoleteDogma) October 31, 2016
Seems like this just might be pertinent, given the latest developments. Daniel Drezner, “professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University”, for the Washington Post:
I was in Sochi all last week with a healthy fraction of the Russian foreign policy elite. Here’s what I learned at the Valdai Discussion Club:
1) Russian-American relations are going to be bad for a good long spell. Regardless of the nationality or ideological predisposition of the participant, everyone attending Valdai thought this to be true…
2) Russia’s grand strategy is for Russia to be treated like a great power. That’s it. A lot of high-ranking Russian officials came to chat, and the questions from the participants were quite good. But one exchange stood out. A non-American noted that Russia’s pre-2008 rhetoric toward the U.S. was, essentially, “We disapprove of your revisionist actions in the world but will not take similar actions because we believe in Westphalian sovereignty.” The post-2008 rhetoric has been, essentially, “We get to do what you’ve done in the past.”…
3) Russia’s economy is not in great shape...
4) Vladimir Putin is, like, super-passive-aggressive. Props to the Russian leader — he took questions from the participants for more than two hours, and seemed perfectly at ease doing so. But when the conversation turned to sensitive flash points, he got very snarky…
Rhetorically, Putin kept nominally declaring that he didn’t care who won the U.S. election, all the while venting his spleen about Hillary Clinton. And it’s interesting that Putin’s line about this so perfectly parallels Donald Trump’s line…
What’s on the agenda for the day, GOTV-related or otherwise?
Good Morning ?, Everyone ?
@rikyrah: As they say in Russia, доброе утро.
Looks like Trumpsters took over Reddit last night.
And here I thought all that college Russian I took would go to naught when the USSR collapsed.
Little did I know that I could ultimately have a valuable skill, and can now translate between Russian financial and political overlords and their American retainers…
@Botsplainer: What goes around, comes around.
“Russia supports Trump. Russia opposes Hillary. Do you want to give the Russians what they want?”
Simple as that.
There was an incident a few days ago where every front page post was pro Trump. The mods claimed it was a glitch in the code but I don’t buy that. I think they got hacked but don’t want to spoil their tech creds. Would not surprise me if it happens again. The MRA/Trump faction are little children & they are not winning any friends with people who are not nasty 12 year olds any way.
Is the Trump/Russia thing getting any traction Stateside, compared with the email farrago?
@rikyrah: “Good Morning???” WTF?
1. It’s 12:15 AM here. I’m going to bed.
2. Did you sit at your computer hitting Cntl F5 repeatedly so you could be first?
@Schlemazel: The subreddit The_Donald is on the front page, and I’m pretty sure that’s not a front page subreddit. So definitely hacked.
Given that a very large percentage of visitors there are tech savvy I am surprised it has not happened earlier and for other ’causes’.
@rikyrah: Good morning to you! And everyone except @Arclite: who
Seems to be out of sorts.
From the WaPo link in the OP. Bolded are issues from the Bush, Jr reign of error and seem to be central in Russia’s thinking.
Also, I had forgotten Bush&Co opted out of the ABM Treaty very early in their first term, so they could work on the pressing need for missile defense systems, in 2001, as opposed to the crazy notion al-Qaeda would be a growing threat.
Perhaps in this brave new world where time zones merge over the ether we need new words
GOOD MORNAFTNING EVERYONE!
Today is not so wonderful for me — off to my post-50 appointment with the alien probe Doctor. What a pain
a real pain in the ass
@Baud: And in other news, “Water is Wet”.
@Botsplainer: I’m a slacker, I only took a quarter of Russian.
Good Morning. The last day of October was certainly a surprise and I enjoyed reading all the stories about the Don.
Now it’s time for MSM to cover it.
Arclite Jr. (9 yrs) went out dressed as Trump tonight. We haven’t really talked about him here at home, he’s gotten most of his info at school, but the few articles he has read himself, he knew that Trump was an asshole. My wife took him shopping one day a few weeks ago, and that’s what he came back with: this huge Trump head made of foam board. He wore a t-shirt with a tie and jacket print on it. I have a few takeaways from our adventures tonight.
1. Many many houses said it was the best costume of the night and he got a shitload of extra candy.
2. Most houses said it was the scariest costume of the night and many people wanted their picture taken with him.
3. I was really surprised at the level of knowledge of Trump’s negatives by kids. Many made remarks about the wall, or about immigrants, or his other positions. It gave me hope.
4. Trump name recognition is said to be 100% in the USA, a staggering number. We met several hundred people in our 2 hours trick or treating, and I can confirm that EVERY SINGLE PERSON we met said “Trump!”
5. There were of course, some people with negative emotional reactions. We were able to defuse any such reactions with saying either “It’s the scariest costume you’ve seen, right?” (if they hadn’t already said it themselves) or my son saying “We’re gonna make Halloween great again!”
I’ve never seen such a reaction to any Halloween costume before. My son is a total ham, and would bobble his giant head back and forth and give thumbs up, while also pretending not being able to see where he was going, tripping and walking into things. So he played it up pretty well. Obama got 70% of the vote in this state in 2012, so you can guess which way the populace swings out here.
(As I said at the end of the last deceased thread), Morning Email* talked about email.
*Morning Joe is now Morning Email, since all they talk about is the Hillbeast’s email.
Thanks for sharing, sounds like a good time was had by all!
Sure, Obama was born there…wait, you can vote there?
@Immanentize: Trust me, you won’t feel a thing.
I have asked this question before but from the (lack of) replies assume everyone assumes I was being snarky. This is not snark, I really want to know.
Given the reports from people here why do you watch Morning Ho?
I am trying really hard not to add snarky bits like, do you hope he will finally confess to the intern killing? But won’t because I really would like to hear why
Comrade Trumpski is not a one-off. Putin is trying to destabilize Europe by supporting ultra right-wing figures like Marine Le Pen.
“We get to do what you’ve done in the past” is quite right. The US has long supported fringe elements in other societies because they were also against Communism. Now Russia will be doing the same, but back at us.
@?BillinGlendaleCA: is that akin to a fifth of vodka?
I have been wondering about the Russian connection and why it hasn’t received more traction. Really. This is the kind of thing that generally freaks out wingers. Have we moved all super power competition hatred to China? Seems unlikely.
Then again, there are many in the policy/military/intelligence/law Enforcement communities who I occassionally bump into who would like nothing more than a new Cold War. They felt they had clear purpose back then.
@Schlemazel: It’s a test of my continued sobriety.
When Obama took his first vacation as president, he took it in Hawaii of course. Fucking Cokie Roberts (I know, I know) said “Why couldn’t he take his vacation in the United States?” She may have mentioned Martha’s Vineyard. I could have screamed.
I got two huge bags of “fun-size” Snickers etc. and had about thirty kids in total, so I have a lot of leftovers. I’m sure it will go quick since every time I pass the table I take one and I’ve been finding a lot of excuses to pass the table. Plus tonight I’m hosting the monthly board meeting of my car club and those folks will snatch it up.
The costumes last night were pretty creative. Didn’t see anything politically inspired, which was a surprise since most of the T-or-T’ers were kids under 10 and that seems to be the Trump demographic based on his campaign style.
@Arclite: She called going to Hawai’i “exotic.”
@Mr Rogers: No, UCLA is on the quarter system as opposed to the semester system.
This talk that the Russians have been grooming/cultivating/working Trump for 5 years makes no sense to me. He was a celebrity businesscrook with a sideline in birtherism until 18 months ago. Why would he be of political interest to the FSB? They could not have known he would end up within the statistical margin of error of the presidency.
Or did they just want leverage over a well-known American grifter and the mother of all Christmas presents dropped in their lap?
@montanareddog: Actually, given the probability, the mother of all lottery tickets might be a better analogy
@Schlemazel: It’s been mostly politics free for a while now. Somewhat surprising.
@montanareddog: Could have been supporting Trump because of his birtherism (to hurt Obama) and got lucky.
Sort of reminds me of an anti-CARE PSA the National Lampoon made years ago
“why send them CARE packages, you can’t afford to visit Europe and they LIVE there!”
Cokie does reveal that she is a provincial Southern daughter regularly. It does not surprise me she views Hawaii as foreign.
@Arclite: Are you by any chance Professor Fate? Of Rise and shine fame?
@Mustang Bobby: Thanks, Bobby. My memory sucks. Still, here are her comments:
I guess I was fixated on “foreign” and got Myrtle Beach and Martha’s Vineyard mixed up. Still, doesn’t detract much from her idiotic statement. What a maroon.
@montanareddog: This is not hard to understand. Trump blabs dirt about everybody and everything he’s ever seen. I’ve posted before about how the Russians must have been delighted and shocked. To get the motherfucker to trust you with everybody’s secrets all you have to do is flatter him a little. Might not be uniformly useful information but by God he’s happy to spill it.
I’m sure he started out as just a source. Nobody expected him to run for office, he was useful as an insider source, and there’s nothing he’d want more or would make him happier. Hell, he’d seek out/gatecrash stuff just to blab about it to his appreciative friends.
If you believe that post a comment that is anti-libertarian & watch yourself get buried by the Ayn Brigade!
Seriously they swarm, But since reddit skews >30 I don’t think most people there give a hoot about politics, they fall under the belief that they can do it themselves.
It didn’t occur to Cokie that Myrtle Beach is about as lily-white as you can get and there are still remnants of segregation there? You’re right; she’s just thick.
@Johannes: I live somewhere slightly warmer.
On the downside, the roaches get into everything. :(
@Schlemazel: I don’t post comments there. I was speaking of front page topics. A few years ago, many of the front page topics were Ron Paul friendly, but not so much anymore.
He has run for President several times (he was the nomanee of one of the fringe parties in the 90s)& threatened to a few other. They probably groomed him for intel with the thought that with the right handler (Manafort) he could become their big baboo and go all the way.
The children of reddit are growing up and little Ayn does not have the pull daddy did because he cannot be an open racist with this younger generation, they are not – or at least not as willing to side with the racists.
@montanareddog: Trump isn’t the only one, just the most visible. I am quite sure Russia has been cultivating ties with vulnerable people in the west when and where ever they can find them. One never knows when or how a person may become useful. They just hit the jackpot with Trump.
Old Dan and Little Anne
I witnessed a costume parade yesterday at a school. The middle schoolers were taking turns showing heir garb. When 3 kids with Trump get ups walked in front of the k -5 kids the threesome were loudly booed. The kids are alright.
@Schlemazel: I don’t know about that. Reddit has a pretty strong racist contingent.
@Applejinx: makes sense that he could have originally been exploited as a source – thanks. And once you’ve got the rumored orgy tape, you can use him to co-opt other sources. But it still feels all a bit Le Carre. If they are communicating via dedicated servers running windows 98 and all the other stuff we have heard, you would think the NSA or the like would have the goods on him. And surely the CIA Moscow station would have a fair idea too. As you say, he is a total blabbermouth surrounded by other grifters who would happily sell their souls for a buck
I am not always first. It’s the luck of the scroll. ??
I believe that she mentioned Myrtle Beach, and said that Hawaii was so “exotic “. I was actually watching This Week back then and can remember my WTF reaction. ???
Four years for me, for all the good it did.
Trick or treaters were light here too, and according to my FB feed, pretty light overall. The weather here was unusually warm without rain. For some reason, Monday seems not to be a good night for this.
I don’t know what to think anymore. I’m canvassing tonight and I’m not talking about any of this. I’m talking free community college.
No, but you’re always the cheeriest, which is nice!
they are loud and they do swarm, I assume they have alerting messages like the bat signal. They just are not that larde
@Kay: You’re a real sweet talker, ain’t you? ;-)
Iowa Old Lady
@Arclite: Always interesting to see how small the US is for people like Cokie Roberts. Only the places she frequents count.
cheeriest do you even know us here? Cheery is waaaaaay down the list of adjectives used to describe us.
I assume she was being sarcastic!
The first job Putin got after the KGB went kaput was as Vice-Mayor of St. Petersburg. One of the first things he did while in this bureaucratic office was to have a documentary of himself made, titled “Power.”
People show you who they are.
I disagree. Rikyrah exudes cheeriness which is why her morning posts stand out!
@Kay: That’s great, Kay.
@Schlemazel: I agree. They are simply more organized.
@OzarkHillbilly: the prep is not fun. But [email protected]rikyrah: Thanks!
Trump has been sort of running and talking about running for president for years, since the 90s. It wouldn’t surprise me if Putin flattered him into thinking he could win this time.
@Kay: Hey! Free college? Is Bernie still on the ballot?! ?
At least this is a day when nobody can tell you that you’re full of it! And colonoscopies aren’t as bad as thy sound. They couldn’t be.
which is why I HAVE to assume sarcasm :)
Its the prep that is a pain. Whatever drugs they give you for the actual test are a mind-warp, they really should provide them for the prep.
I appreciate your reports from the ground, Kay. ☺
@Immanentize: I hated the starvation diet. I have problems with hypoglycemia and felt on the edge of an attack the whole time, must have drank 3 or 4 gallons of broth to stave one off. Between that and the hangover from the drugs, I don’t think I’ll ever have another.
@rikyrah: Good morning to you! Ignore grumpy cat, sounds like sleep deprivation talking.
You’re right. They’re worse.
Why do you think that Assange, Griftwald and the usual suspects got the RWNJ fringe and pr0n collecting bronies so worked up over the NSA metadata collection protocols, or why their stooge Snowjob wound up with his sanctuary in Mother Russia?
The routing of the outrage on what was essentially a small “C” conservative program always reeked.
And if he’s reading, fuck you, Greenwald, you Putin-fluffing piece of shit.
I look at THIS SITE every morning. It shows political cartoons from a wide range of artists (some not published & when you see them you’ll pretty much guess why, it aint the art work)
One thing it does is give me a pretty good idea of what is ‘selling’ at any one time. With the recent email debacle the good guys are hitting Comey hard and indicating there is no there there. The bad guys are stuck at hinting something dirty is happening. I think it is a loser for them overall.
@OzarkHillbilly: I can always stand to lose a few pounds. It just doesn’t seem like the best way to do so (eyeing my bicycle gathering dust in my shed).
@montanareddog: This may be a case where a pre-existing financial relationship, along with Trump’s admiration of and imitation of Putin’s nationalistic and authoritarian style in the early primaries peeked Putin’s interest and then when Trump won the Republican nomination, Putin saw a chance to really screw up the U.S. And whether Trump wins or loses, the U.S. will definitely be a weaker and more screwed up on the international stage. Of course, in a couple of years, when this Trump-Putin bromance goes south, Putin and the Russians will likely have a real national security threat on their hands as Trump decides to make Putin pay for some slight.
This is still a very close election (the very fact this is close depresses me), and Trump could win. And of course the media has done a terrible job showing what a Trump Presidency would be like.
1. Let’s just say on Environmental issues, it will be the return to the 1890s. So many bad things will happen with a Trump Presidency and a Tea Party Congress that will be hard to add up, but start with the withdrawal from all CO2 limiting measures, the abolition (or practical abolition) of the EPA, abolition of fuel standards and increase subsidies for fossil fuel industry, and probably the sell off/give away of Federal land controlled by the BLM, National Forests, Wilderness Areas, and even the National Park Service. After all Trump is real estate developer, and he will see all that prime real estate as golf courses, resorts, and housing developments.
2. On the Economy here I will be a bit contrarian and Keynesian. There will be sell-offs and instability in financial markets after the election, but Trump and the Tea Party Congress agree on three things really easily. 1) Massive tax cuts for rich people; 2) Massive spending on Defense, particularly on contractors for both hardware and “services” (I would expect to see “contractors” e.g. mercenaries used over regular professional soldiers); 3) massive cuts in social spending directed to the poor and lower middle classes with Medicaid block granted to states, SNAP block granted to states; and educational programs gutted. Nevertheless, the initial spending and tax cuts will create a huge deficit (which is IOKIYR) that will have massive stimulus effect in 2017. Trump will be able to boast of a boom. However, he will be appointing hard money men and gold bugs to the FED and positions in Treasury so I would also expect to see a very steep rise in interest rates to “reverse the artificial rates” of the last 9 years. The rise in interest rates will also make the dollar much stronger, so there will actually be a increase in the trade deficit (which I expect Trump and his minions will try to suppress news of). The trade deficit and tightening will trigger a recession, which will trigger a recession in 2018. All those white, non-college blue collar men and women voting for Trump will feel more sad, but somehow it will be the fault of “Blacks, the “Mexicans (all Hispanics),” the hippie environmentalists, and I would not be surprised if “international bankers” (also known as Jews) get targeted for trying to sabotage the “Make America Great Program.” And it may be a long, deep recession since the ideology in control would be against intentional Keynesian spending and would want to maintain high real interest rates ton induce wage deflation (in a brief moment of honesty last year in response to questions about raising the minimum wage, Trump said no, U.S. wages were to high and “needed to come down.” This is also the period where I expect to see trade agreements torn up and tariffs imposed on imports.
3. That will be the year, 2018, I expect to see foreign policy adventurism and a step up in authoritarian tactics and voting suppression of Blacks and Hispanics to counteract the fall off of support for Trump among non-college educated whites. Because I expect Trump and his family and cronies to loot the U.S. Treasury and economy (after all for making America great again, should he not get 20%, at least), and because they will be using the tools of the U.S. Government to prosecute their enemies (something that Karl Rove already had initiated, so Trump will be a difference in degree, not in kind, – and yes, I full expect Hillary, Bill, Chelsea Clinton and Obama to be prosecuted if Trump wins, I don’t know for what, but they will think of something) they, like Putin will never give up power because they will be afraid for being prosecuted themselves for their crimes. We could have lots of small wars, we could have some major wars, and of course between “war on illegal immigration” and the “war on drugs” could morph into domestic insurgencies in the Black and Hispanic communities if they are significantly oppressed. Theoretically, Trump could be impeached, but that would mean a Republican party in Congress of real patriots, so that is not going to happen as the majority of the majority will be more than happy to support a White Nationalist Government in perpetuity.
It is a bleak picture I paint, but I paint from what these clowns say and write about how they would create a perfect world if they were charge (at least perfect for White People who believe like them).
Anymore stories of Trump folks trying to intimidate people at early voting sites?
@Immanentize: You and me both.
It’s GOTV, which is usually just “go vote” but I feel like people need some purpose and direction and IMO Democrats don’t respond well to fear-based appeals. They’re not “STOP!” this or that. That’s conservatives. The key thing is “progress” for most of them. I honestly believe that’s why Lefties often miss with Democratic voters- they’re too negative
The only election I;ve been involved with where “STOP!” worked with Democrats was the ballot initiative to overturn Kasich’s anti-union law and that was probably 30% GOP voters. I feel like if Democrats are running on halting something they’re desperate- it’s not a good place for them.
Le Carre (David Cornwell) WAS a spy. He was betrayed (among others) by Kim Philby, and the mole Gerald in ‘Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy’ was modeled after Philby, a real person. The life-ruining father Pym in ‘A Perfect Spy’ was Cornwell working out his feelings about his own father, who was just like that.
All Le Carre did was put stuff together in such a way as to magnify the drama and lend a sense of magnitude and tragedy (sometimes nihilism and futility) to things. What he’s working with is very human and drawn from life.
If the Russians whack Trump at the last minute and run for it, it would be very very Le Carre of them indeed. It’d be just like a Le Carre novel. And that would be because the man, Trump, is as twisted and tragic a character as Rick Pym in The Perfect Spy: a characterization from life, but seemingly a total Mary Sue of treachery.
Trump brings this on himself, because he’s so humanly and deeply flawed, because the people around him are also craven in such a human way, because the people running him from Moscow (is that even still the seat of Russian power, or does it rest with some bank or six?) are savage and bullying in an equally human way.
We live in interesting times, when sometimes the masks drop and we see how things really are. It might even be a foundation for a new liberalism: it really does look as though right-wingers have screwed themselves. Willingly becoming Russian puppets is pretty goddamn craven.
@Wag: they aren’t. I was mostly asleep.
@Arclite: Awesome kid. Knows his scary.
@Arclite: Myrtle Beach is quite a shithole. Why anyone goes there is beyond me.
You misspelled her name. It’s spelled “Execrable Cokie Roberts.”
No, and that story about Cinci was wrong. The Dem on the Board of Elections said it didn’t happen and he’s kind of a big deal state Democrat- I met him at the 2008 DNC and he knew everyone. I would trust what he says.
I’m sorry for repeating it. It was incorrect.
They filed a federal lawsuit against Roger Stones anti-AA- voter group.
i don’t think anyone is actually worried about Stop The Steal. That’s a bullshit grifter org
What they really want is to keep a consent decree in place (extend it)- the consent decree is an agreement the GOP entered into where they agreed to stop targeting AA voters for suppression- it originated in NJ in the 1990’s.
No, and that story out of Cinci was wrong- incorrect. The Dem on the Bd of Elections said it didn’t happen and he’s sort of a big deal state Democrat- I met him at the 2008 convention and he knew everyone.
@Kay: That is a good insight. And on the college issue, this is actually so important . College — particularly an Associates degree as a minimum — has become necessary to both upward mobility in good times and keeping the wolves from the door in bad. There are real barriers for many to move from a 2 year school to a 4 and we need to break those down. College is much more like grades 13, 14, 15 and 16 these days — and absolutely critical to our continued societal success.
Just look at the Trump voter demographic for the effects.
Mika is bound and determined to say that since the democrats praised Comey they have no right, no right to criticize him. So people once you’ve said something nice about someone, you cede the right to every be critical of them.
ETA: Oh and the story about Comey not wanting to sign off on the Russia hacking story, and his not wanting influence the election, is not the same because it was single sourced, by one former agent.
‘Like the dogs in these photos and the canine companion on your couch, we all need to stop, take a break, relax and unwind – to breathe it all in and be fully present in each and every experience.’
Democrats filed this:
They’re not really concerned about Stop The Steal, which is bullshit GOP grifter org, what they want is to extend the terms of a consent decree that Republicans entered into in the 1990’s, where they agreed to stop suppressing votes.
Subodh Chandra is one of the lawyers for the Dems and he’s a “real” election lawyer. I don’t think he’d sign on to bullshit. He’s smart as hell and really serious about civil rights. He ran for AG once as the liberal alternative to the endorsed Dem and I backed him. He was the Cleveland city law director- civil matters for the city.
@gene108: Shortly before 9/11, I read an interview with Rumsfeld wherein he said that countering a Russian missile attack with an ABM system was the top priority for US security. And now Rummy supports Trump.
@Arclite: 5:53 am EST is fine for a “Good Morning” here on the east coast. Chill, Dude.
@sherparick: What you foresee is probably milder than what would actually happen should the good people of this country lose their collective mind and elect Trump. Pence and his Rightwing extremist ilk would be in full control. The Judiciary would go backwards into extreme conservatism. We would start wars with Canada for looking at us the wrong way. The damage would be irreparable.
Thankfully, the electoral college should save us from all that. Trump’s path to victory is still tight.
I actually think Sanders was oddly “elitist” on college. His college vision was designed around attending a 4 year public college right out of high school. That is really a top 25% in income thing where I live. It’s not the majority college experience- community college is. Clinton’s pitch is actually closer to working class views on education after HS, which are more about “training” than “college”.
@Arclite: What the fuck do you care?
Not really. Putin is just a crazy, cool strong man, and is extra cool to fools because he supposedly hates Obama. Conservatives can’t wait to see Trump and Putin do cool stuff together. They will also get all the hot babes.
It is the ultimate white male adolescent nationalism fantasy.
I just ponied up $60 for Clinton. We could be looking at a Gore-Bush type finish here. That’d be fun.
MIka and Joe are just bound and determined to believe that Comey did something wrong. You don’t know what Comey knows, he must have something, or he would not have done this. Mika again goes back to the e-mail server, therefore Comey is right, Hillary is wrong, it was all Hillary’s fault for having a private server. Comey knows you don’t so just shut up, Obama defended him, so democrats have no right to complain. And since the voters so far don’t care it only matters to them in the studio. Next up Haley Barbor. I’m out.
@Immanentize: To add re: education — in 1940, about 18% of the population had a high school or better education. Roughly that same percentage (about 17%) now have some education (masters courses, degree, PhD, professional degree) above the bachelors. We have just moved the elite prerequisites four years higher in that period
@Arclite: Actually, that was during the 2008 campaign, when he took a week to visit his dying (white) grandmother, who raised him.
WaPo’s tracking poll has Trump +1…
@hovercraft: Mika and Joe should take a vacation after November 8th since I don’t see what they have to say to anyone when Clinton cleans Trump’s clock. They’ve made it plain what side they’re on.
@Kay: It’s nice to have friends.
@PsiFighter37: Sigh. Comey should be very pleased with himself.
Just read the latest at Stone Kettle Station, and that Wright dude can really write.
@Kay: comments passing in the ether. I agree with the elitist aspects of the four year college thing But we have just moved the goal.posts to Beyond bachelors degrees now for top level professional positions.
I do see a post-bachelor move to credentialing (like a Micrsoft DBA certification) rather than the need for a master’s. But the professional degrees still are powerful gatekeepers to success — even given all the disruption in Law.
Putin is an asswipe FSB (old KGB) agent and a tRump on steroids – self cenetered, stupid in many areas, and very reactionary towards change. That said, our policy and approach to Russia is terrible – the expansion of NATO (past Poland) was deranged and beyond a stupid move; really, was there any better move to threaten Russia? Russia is not our enemy (nor is China.) We have policy differences with Russia and yes, Russia can act a little like amerikans (ie violent dicks) but that is expected; look at the country’s size and the threats it faces. President Obama did try but then continue with the NATO expansion polices and a hyper aggressive support of the Ukraine so exactly what did he expect? In this respect, Hillary will make things worse with Russia; that I can live with since we need a liberal in the Presidency but that does not excuse our stupidity towards Russia.
FEMA Camp Counselor
A 13 point shift in 12 days seems wildly implausible. No way that many people changed their minds.
OK. Voted for Secretary Clinton this am before election officer training. One elderly trumpster outside campaigning. (Legally)
@FEMA Camp Counselor: ABC’s tracking poll had the same shift. It could be GOP coming home while some Dems remaining undecided or third party.
I asked seriously before and got one answer. This time I’ll ask in snark
WHY DO YOU WATCH THAT SHOW?
@Schlemazel: the drugs are great. Just relax and enjoy them. You won’t feel a thing and it will be over before you know it. It’s like a roofie that’s good for you.
@OzarkHillbilly: same here. I passed out in waiting room. Still do it every three years. Better than Cancer
Myrtle Beach serves a slice of our society, but it’s pretty clearly not the Obamas’ slice. I do not exaggerate when I say that a person driving the length of Myrtle Beach in 2009 could not go a block without the opportunity to buy a Confederate battle flag beach towel. [Setting aside the racial aspect, the comment could pretty clearly be seen as classist, as in “Why aren’t they going to the Hershey theme park instead of the Riviera?”]
Myrtle Beach has pivoted slightly since, but Cokie Roberts’ comment was made then, not now.
For Roberts to suggest Myrtle Beach, of all places, shows that she was either absurdly ignorant or borderline hateful. I don’t really care which it was and am annoyed when I spend 60 seconds thinking about her at all.
It’s possible that I will be in a foul mood for each of the next 6 days. I’m tired of looking at what’s under rocks in this country.
@FEMA Camp Counselor:
Or the polling methods are for shit.
@montanareddog: he had run for president before. He’s known to have wanted to run since the 1980s. Five years ago was full out birther high point. Wasn’t that political?
I can barely tolerate Hilton Head, and I get to go there free. The thought of any president vacationing in Myrtle Beach is laughable.
@sherparick: It’s time to go to work for Hillary, so your vision doesn’t become reality. The one thing that surprises me is the republicans want to rid us of public education.
@JPL: Why does that surprise you?
Full Metal Wingnut
@Baud: that ABC tracking poll is a bit of an outlier from what I remember.
Anyway, perfectly normal for the polls to tighten in the last couple weeks. It’s happened the past few cycles, not sure about before 2000. It’s nothing to worry about (I mean, do worry because Trump is on the ballot, but don’t freak out about the polls just yet).
@FEMA Camp Counselor: a higher number of the undecided voters coming back to a party were trump supporters than I expected. I thought it would be 60/40 for trump. But it looks like 80/20 for trump. And a lot of Hillary leaning undecideds may have gone from likely to not likely.
There’s a very large Russian/Ukrainian community of religious refugees here in Sacramento. They created in-district religious charter schools, because they do not like the blahs or secularism. They were very organized in favor of prop h8te and I’ve not met one who’s voting for Hillary. The need for a big, strong daddy is strong, and over rides their recent experience with totalitarianism.
With one single exception, the only sure pattern in this election is that when the news has been about Clinton, she has sagged in the polls, and when it has been about Trump, he has sagged in the polls. [The exception is the Democratic Convention, but even that was arguably was about Trump because he decided to steal the spotlight by attacking the Kahns in a preview of the international instability we can expect the first time a foreign leader gets in Trump’s face.]
All that needs to happen is for 3 consecutive news cycles to be about Trump. The precise nature of the Trump-related matter almost doesn’t matter. So drop that oppo item now and let’s get this done.
@satby: He’s a jewel.
@Baud: Because I’m naive!
That’s how it was in 1962. The era of the urban renewal four year commuter campus.
His platform was a return to the world of his youth.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@sherparick: Easy there, this isn’t the Bush admin. The Speaker of the House is on Trump’s enemies list and the GOP has no one to replace Ryan. It’s unlikely a Trump administration would get anything done.
There’s also a weird liberal unease with “training for the lower classes’ I get it- it would be bad if we tracked lower income people into training and away from college but we don’t have to do that. We can offer them several tracks. As it is now we’re just ending up offering a huge group of people nothing. If your parents didn’t go to college a one year trades certificate or two year program is a step up. It’s not something to be ashamed of offering.
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: “It’s unlikely a Trump administration would get anything done.”
Except repeal Obamacare, rewrite the tax code, and appoint Scalia 2.0 to the Supreme Court, all in the first month. The warring factions agree on all that shit.
O. Felix Culpa
This. I teach at our local community college (and not for the money, let me tell you!) and my students are all folks trying to get ahead in an economically challenged environment. Many of them are working women with families, so it’s particularly tough for them. Beyond tuition, scholarship aid to pay for their enormously expensive textbooks would be a huge help.
ETA: Decent subsidized childcare would be a great assist too.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@hueyplong: Let Sam Wang explain it
So the MSM is bored, this is the latest shiny toy and by next friday it will be something else.
That must be the poll I heard from Robin Roberts when I barely had my eyes open and my brain functioning this morning. Gah! I felt like going straight back to bed and not surfacing for the next week except to vote.
We are living a nightmare and can’t escape the certifiably insane that the Republican party unleashed on the rest of reality based Americans. Therapists will be very busy treating our collective Trump PTSD.
I avoided a small family dinner last weekend. Two are Republican, the rest of us Dems, but everyone stays away from political talk for the most part. Still I knew the Republican woman had said she liked Trump well over six months ago. I have no idea what she thinks now but I didn’t want to face the small risk the election would come up in conversation even in a small way. I would have been sitting with my mouth shut and my blood pressure soaring or blurting out they are out of their freaking minds. I heard dinner turned out peaceful so obviously everyone was studiously avoiding politics.
Comey must be terrified. If Trump wins half the country will believe the director of the FBI engineered that result. Democrats won’t riot or demand the result be over-turned but Comey will be infamous for decades. What a horrible end to a long career.
@hueyplong: Don’t forget giving away all the federal lands to the states, who will give it to right-wing scumbags like the Bundys. Unlike some of the other things, that’s completely irreversible.
@Botsplainer: I don’t think the Secret Service would let a president vacation in Myrtle Beach, at least not willingly. Mostly crowds, bad transportation, impossible to keep him safe.. I’m sure Cokie has never been there.
I have long thought that Douglas Feith’s War and Decision has been under appreciated as a window into the Bush administration’s mindset. This is true regardless of what you think of Feith. He starts his book by saying:
In context, that last bit means build the ABM and put Russia in its place once and for all. This Russia first focus helps explain why some Clinton-era initiatives against the threat of terrorist attack got pushed into the background.
O. Felix Culpa
New one to me, thanks for the reference! Although BJ remains, of course, my One True Blog Home. ;)
@OzarkHillbilly: It’s no joke. Doctors tell you how easy and safe these things are, but my mother in law had a colonoscopy and I am convinced that the fasting in advance put so much stress on her — a diabetic — that her blood pressure spiked, which helped to bring on a major stroke the very same day, within hours of the procedure. Nobody took any special precautions or made her stay afterwards to make sure her blood pressure medication was working. Because her blood pressure was so high she couldn’t be given the medicine that reduces the potential severity of strokes, but has a side effect of bleeding, so is not given when high blood pressure is present. It still makes me angry. She never walked again.
Clearly it was. But no one ever considered him anything other than a dilettante until a few states into this Republican primary. So, I find it hard to believe that the FSB would have been investing in him as a Manchurian candidate long before that.
I put a lot more credence in Schlemazel’s theory that he could have been originally turned as a source. And then things deviated astonishingly from the expected narrative
It’s “likely voter screens”. I don’t know what to do with them- whether they’re valid or not. If there’s a big surge of white voters and fewer AA and Latinos he could win.
@Applejinx: I just assume that the connection between Trump and Putin is through financial dealings or loans or maybe even coarser means, such as dirty pictures of people with underage girls. Not necessarily Trump, but maybe someone he loves (a son). We know that Trump and his sons tried hard to gain a foothold in Russia, but that they never seemed to get anything concrete. We also know that he has difficulty raising money from lenders and investors because they have all figured out his MO and don’t find him worth the time or extra risk of loss. So there is a lot of smoke, including associations with people like Manafort and others who we know are thick with Russian financial interests, but we have no idea who is lending him money because he won’t tell us and the craven press won’t go there. It is outrageous that we should be expected to select a president who refuses to be transparent with us. That alone should make him unelectable.
@montanareddog: apologies – I should have thanked Applejinx
“Russia supports Trump. Democrats support Hillary. Who do you hate worse, Russia or Democrats?”
That’s how they think.
I know the criticism of Nate Silver, but, 26% is better than I would like, but hardly the end of the world. Plus, that’s today. Who knows by next Monday. And that’s 538. Not other polling operations.
@Kay: yep. I think she wins, but it could be very close. I know the democrat powers that be know that by now. I hope they made the right appeals and have the ground forces in place to find those voters. Otherwise, it’s going to be a long few decades.
@montanareddog: I would laugh if what the Russians were trying to do was lean on him to advance Miss Russia to the finals of a pageant and now we’ve ended up with this monster.
I doubt if it’s anything that organized and long-term. From what I glean from the interwebs, if there is a Trump-Russian connection, it sounds like the likeliest form for it is this;
1) Trump becomes indebted to, or partnered with, Russian business interests, largely because he’s such an untrustworthy scumbag that they’re the only people who’ll do business with him anymore.
2) As a separate and unrelated point, Trump ends up running for president. With a lot more success than expected.
3) Because of his general political outlook as well as his ties to Russia, the Russian government takes an interest and leans on hackers and other such friends in low places to influence the election in his favor.
@Barbara: My directions for colonoscopy prep allow Jell-O (but not red or orange) and the laxative can be diluted in Gatorade or any clear liquid. (I use apple juice.) Would some combination of that have helped your mother?
And it does sound like she got seriously shitty after care. Man, the difference between hospitals (even between different departments within in a single hospital) can be the difference between life and death.
What’s very bad is the preparation, and that utterly repellent crap they make you drink a horrifying amount of to clear out your system the night before. It really is the most disgusting thing you’ll ever ingest.
Potentially, depending on your body’s reaction to the anesthetic, the day or two after the colonoscopy can be unpleasant too.
The colonoscopy itself is probably the most pleasant part of the operation.
Some better poll news
[email protected] 28 min
PA, NH, and VA (all firewall states) look solid for HRC even as ABC/Post tracker has Trump up nationally
Or, cynically speaking, they’ve just transferred that need from one authoritarian ideology to another.
There is this odd fixation with “send everybody to college, even those with a 70 IQ”.
It is in the same category as “fetishize the homeless who shit on the sidewalk and aggressively panhandle, they’re so wise” mindset.
@greennotGreen: The problem is that jello is not a good idea for a diabetic. It’s basically pure sugar, and when her sugar spiked so did her blood pressure. But the main point is that, as you say, she got seriously bad aftercare. No one should be sent home with blood pressure that was as high as hers was. They should be monitored and given additional or different drugs to make sure it is coming under control. It’s really hard to say it would not have happened but it clearly could have been handled better.
I doubt if Comey cares anymore than the Supreme Court justices who threw the election to Bush sixteen years ago did. Democrats, as you say, will swallow it and move on, and whatever protests are made will be dismissed because as with everything else in Washington, it’s okay if you do it to Democrats.
I still say Hillary has a better chance of winning, mind you. But I seriously doubt that if she doesn’t, Comey will feel even remotely concerned. After all, he’ll have a future in the Trump administration, and then a spot on the wingnut welfare circuit for the rest of his life. And the MSM and all of Official Washington will be there to pat him on the back for his bravery and integrity in not backing down in the face of vicious partisan liberalism.
I’ve calmed down now that I’ve had coffee. Hillary will win. I can’t imagine otherwise.
My first colonoscopy, at age 49, was in some ways one of the best days of my life. It disclosed a malignant tumor that turned out to be at Stage II, which has a good prognosis, 85 percent 5-year disease-free survival or something like that, if I recall correctly. The odds drop off bigly at Stage III, which is lymph node involvement, and aggressive chemotherapy is always called for in that case. I’m not trying to say everyone should be grateful and not complain. I complain about getting scoped myself. But I’ve lost a wife, a cousin (with young children), and an aunt to colon cancer, all of which reinforces my own experience to convince me that, on balance, the risks and unpleasantness of screening colonoscopy are worth it.
Reposted from upstairs.
For those of you who were asking about the 13 point swing in the ABC tracking poll, Steve Kornacki explained that it’s not that a whole bunch of people have changed their minds, it’s that a lot of republicans have moved into “likely voter” from just supporter. They were with Trump a week ago, but they were not sure if they were going to go out and vote for him, so it’s almost entirely a change in enthusiasm. As the whole I like to sexually assault women thing faded from the headlines, they slunk back to their candidate. So at this point his hordes are more enthusiastic than our side, so as BR would say GOTV. Seeing the polls close usually lights a fire under our side, so lets hope everyone gets out and votes.
O. Felix Culpa
Perhaps. But what I’m seeing at the community college level is an opportunity for people to get knowledge and skills so they can make a decent living. There are so few jobs in New Mexico and our public education system vies with Mississippi for the cellar. While college may not be the ideal way to equip people for the workplace, it’s what we’ve got. My preference is to strengthen community colleges and remove barriers to entry for all motivated students.
The school also works closely with the state’s four-year institutions, so those who want a B.A. are prepared for the transition and can transfer smoothly.
@PST: Absolutely! Colon cancer is one of the very few cancers where the death rate has clearly dropped in the last 20 years and that is attributable almost entirely to colonoscopies. But doctors still tend to overdo them — if you are at risk it should be more frequent, no doubt, but if you have a clear colonoscopy you can rest easy for 7-10 years, but many doctors say every five years. Also, we need less invasive tests, perhaps to make the frequency of colonoscopies more targeted at people whose risk seems to be elevated. My MIL was 82 at the time of her colonoscopy, and I read later that there is a point where the risk exceeds the benefit. Her overall frail health and multiple medical issues were far more likely to kill her than colon cancer. She was not a good candidate for that test. It still rankles.
O. Felix Culpa
@Barbara: A colonoscopy at 82? No wonder it rankles. So sorry for you, her, and your family.
@Arclite: In another take that suggestion of Myrtle Beach hints at a bit of possible racism on her part. Myrtle Beach is very popular with AA’s in my red state. They go there in pretty substantial numbers.
I just think, hope, sanity prevails. It has to or this country is fubar.
The Moar You Know
@Botsplainer: I lived in SF for six years and that was enough to remove every last shred of that kind of bullshit from my mind. Voluntary homeless need to be involuntarily institutionalized to fix whatever the fuck is wrong with them. And that’s real compassion; the life these folks lead is beyond awful, it’s scary and dangerous, the cops use them for baton and sometimes target practice, and they die far earlier than they otherwise might. House them and let them drink themselves to death if that’s really what they want (the Sacramento experiment) – but get them off the streets.
@hovercraft: yep. For this entire election, it seems that our fence sitters break late. We saw this in September as well. I hope they don’t wait much longer. And that the Dems know where they are.
@Baud: Truth. I’m a regular on a non-political, non-issues subreddit and one of the other regulars’ name is kristallnachte [sic]. It bothered me enough to private message that user about it, but s/he bobbed and weaved like a master politician, and I decided I was tired of feeding a troll and gave up.
With that said, obviously its no fairer to say Reddit is full of racists than to say certain IRL regions are full of racists.
As an aside, are there any significant number of women in the alt-right world? My uninformed perception is “no.”
@Patricia Kayden: Interesting Mika and Joe have been so pro-Trump in the last month, since they criticized him heavily for a few days after the “grab their puzzy” tape. Trump basically came out on Twitter, called Mika a whore several times, and threatened Joe and Mika with some secret information he was privy to. I thought at the time, big deal, everyone knows they’re having an affair, but whatever info Trump has on them must be much worse than that.
@PST: Shit, I’m sorry- that’s a lot of loss to Colon CA. On a related note, I’ve been delaying my first/baseline scope. I think I’ll schedule that today.
@Immanentize: I think it’s a combination of a number of things, but I think the most prominent are (i) we have achieved the Idiocracy, (ii) radicalized hyperpartisanship, (iii) Strong Daddy needs, (iv) the sheer volume of stupid and scandalous that surrounds Trump, and (v) broken media.
So, it doesn’t get traction because there’s so much other, equally ridiculous and unbelievable if not nearly so dangerous, stuff out there about Trump, and what does get through runs into a roadblock for a lot of people because they kind of remember Putin being a bad dude but think somehow we were weak for not magically stopping him from taking Crimea or something something because John McCain said so. I think a significant proportion of our population is literally so ignorant of geopolitics and global economic issues, so unplugged that they can’t be made to care, and so ill-educated that even if they showed up at the water they couldn’t understand what they were drinking, that they can no longer divine who’s a good guy and who’s a bad guy on the world stage. It’s just so hard, and it changes all the time, and stop bringing your politics into my football broadcast; I just want to be entertained for a couple hours. So they’ll listen to an obvious buffoon who knows nothing, and say “Well, yeah, of course it would be better if we could get along with Russia. Why are we being so mean to them? Things seemed to be going well with them 15 years ago” without even grasping the first thing about the broader context, or who and what Russia has become under Putin.
In other words, we’re fucked. Downhill slope of the superpower life cycle. Which is why, of all the many hilarious monikers we’ve given Drumpf, Combover Caligula (TM 2016 Betty Cracker, I think) is probably the most apt.
Enhanced Voting Techinques
@hueyplong: Trump isn’t a politician but a reality TV star. “Consensus” if for losers in Trump’s mind, it’s all about domination with him and if he wins he will feel totally vindicated and look to go after everyone who crossed him. Most likely he will do his best to get Ryan voted out of the Speakership and try to run Congress in some volition of separation of powers, get in a fight with Congress and spend the rest of his time trying to talk the Justice Department into trying the Clintons and Obama on something, anything in an attempt to make the act of running against Donald Trump illegal and get in another fight with the Federal bureaucracy.
Enhanced Voting Techinques
They ritually murdered another intern together? That seems to be Hannitry’s thing.
Good ad. I was waiting for them to do something like this. They are really on the ball imo. Pitch perfect.
I couldn’t agree more. There is some serious controversy these days on various types of screening, made more difficult by the way people and institutions can become deeply committed to a particular screening test and resentful of any suggestion that it might not confer a net benefit on the screened population. We will probably see increased attention to acting on symptoms and identifying at-risk populations over universal screening. For some cancers, unfortunately, screening identifies a lot of indolent cancers that will never kill. Colon cancer, though, is a good candidate for screening, in my opinion, largely because of the ability to prevent malignancies by the simple, low-risk removal of polyps during the scoping itself. If only something similar were possible for breast or prostate cancer. I too am sorry about what happened to you MIL, Barbara, After a certain age, colon cancer is something you are more likely to die with than die of. I plan to have my last screening at 75. After that, I’ll only get scoped if I have symptoms.
@hueyplong: As a fellow Charlestonian, this x1000. Charleston is continually voted as the friendliest city in the nation on those silly countdown lists, as well as people fondly remembering Charleston as being really nice. I usually just nod and try not to mention the subtle, below-the-surface racism that pervades across the city in all areas, and while also trying not to point out that not only is it the home of succession but that they actively celebrate it every chance they can. In other words, if you’re a WASP it’s a great place. Otherwise…
That, or they know who he is and who he’s with. It’s not necessarily about Joe and Mika keeping big-ass appalling skeletons in their closets, particularly since the big scandal seems to be ‘they are boinking, having heterosexual sex as consenting adults’.
It could as easily be, they are privy to the full extent of what Trump is, who he’s with, and who ELSE in the government (FBI?) is compromised. So if Trump goes ‘you better watch out’, they think ‘KGB! FBI! FBI on orders from KGB, plus the Russian Mob! They will just plain kill us in really inventive ways, and who are we supposed to turn to, the FBI?’
And so they cave, but it’s not because they themselves are so compromised that Trump can blackmail THEM. It’s more likely because they have a sense of what they’re up against should they turn against Trump. Clearly they really, really don’t like that prospect one bit. I saw the clips of Mika nearly speechless on camera. It might not be Joe going ‘shut up, bitch, we’ll be rich and powerful so play along’. It could be ‘keep it together and maybe we’ll get out of this alive’.
Very Le Carre. Which ought to be a warning to them. Might as well whistleblow and hope Clinton’s people can keep ’em safe. In a Le Carre, they would inevitably try to tough it out and keep up the facade until a time of their choosing, and it’d end with Joe standing over dead Mika realizing he blew it (‘The Spy Who Came In From The Cold’: Joe would be Leamas)
Never can tell how romantic people’s self-stories are until you see what they do. I don’t know the details but I don’t believe Joe and Mika’s ridiculous behavior is based on THEIR fear of exposure. To be blunt, they’re just not that wicked and must be afraid of something else.
@Chris: If I were Putin, I wouldn’t really care about Trump’s “general political outlook” in the sense of policy preferences— it’d be more that Trump is clearly an incompetent lazy-ass fool who, as long as he doesn’t actually start World War III, is likely to neglect or damage US interests regardless of what he thinks his policies are. The point isn’t necessarily to ensure that the US will do such-and-such because their leader is indebted to me or believes in my goals; if their leader is a super-divisive fuckup, that’s still an advantage for me.
I’ve seen plausible arguments that this is also the kind of thinking behind Russia’s promotion of weird fake news on the Internet: rather than pushing plausible Russia-friendly interpretations of real events, they push outlandish bullshit that many people will see through immediately, because the point isn’t to win the debate but to muddy the waters so thoroughly that people are more inclined to dismiss all news as propaganda.