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You are here: Home / Elections / Election 2016 / The Maskirovka Slips Part III: Kompromat

The Maskirovka Slips Part III: Kompromat

by Adam L Silverman|  November 3, 20169:05 pm| 306 Comments

This post is in: Election 2016, Foreign Affairs, Open Threads, Politics, Silverman on Security

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intel-cognitive-maskirovka-doctrine

(Figure 1: Maskirovka Principles)

Back on October 20th, Thomas Rid reported out an excellent piece of long form journalism on Russian meddling in the US election at Esquire. Rid’s piece specifically focused on kompromat or compromising materials and hacking. Specifically releasing blended real and fabricated materials to achieve one’s strategic goals. Rid’s piece zeros in on the frightening combination of Russian/Russian sponsored hacking and the release of kompromat materials.

What changed over the past year, however—what made the DNC hack feel new and terrifying—was Russia’s seeming determination to combine the two. For the first time, Russia used a hacking operation, one that collected and released massive quantities of stolen information, to meddle in an American presidential election. The inspiration and template for this new attack was a poisonous cocktail of fact and fabrication that the Russians call kompromat, for “compromising material.”

Rid deconstructs and explains what we’ve been observing with the leaked materials from the Podesta gmail, DNC, and DCCC hacks.

CrowdStrike was soon able to reconstruct the hacks and identify the hackers. One of the groups, known to the firm as Cozy Bear, had been rummaging around the DNC since the previous summer. The other, known as Fancy Bear, had broken in not long before Putin’s appearance at the St. Petersburg forum. Surprisingly, given that security researchers had long suspected that both groups were directed by the Russian government, each of the attackers seemed unaware of what the other was doing.

On June 14, less than an hour after The Washington Post reported the breach at the DNC, CrowdStrike posted a report that detailed the methods used by the intruders. The firm also did something unusual: It named the Russian spy agencies it believed responsible for the hack. Fancy Bear, the firm said, worked in a way that suggested affiliation with the GRU. Cozy Bear was linked to the FSB.

But here’s where things get interesting, the folks running this kompromat operation made a mistake, they were sloppy.

Matt Tait, a former GCHQ operator who tweets from the handle @pwnallthethings, was particularly prolific. Hours after the first Guccifer 2.0 dump, on the evening of June 15, Tait found something curious. One of the first leaked files had been modified on a computer using Russian-language settings by a user named “Feliks Dzerzhinsky.” Dzerzhinsky was the founder of the Cheka, the Soviet secret police—a figure whose mythic renown was signaled by a fifteen-ton bronze statue that once stood in front of KGB headquarters. Tait tweeted an image of the document’s metadata settings, which, he suggested, revealed a failure of operational security.

A second mistake had to do with the computer that had been used to control the hacking operation. Researchers found that the malicious software, or malware, used to break into the DNC was controlled by a machine that had been involved in a 2015 hack of the German parliament. German intelligence later traced the Bundestag breach to the Russian GRU, aka Fancy Bear.

There were other errors, too, including a Russian smile emoji—”)))”—and emails to journalists that explicitly associated Guccifer 2.0 with DC Leaks, as the cybersecurity firm ThreatConnect pointed out. But the hackers’ gravest mistake involved the emails they’d used to initiate their attack. As part of a so-called spear-phishing campaign, Fancy Bear had emailed thousands of targets around the world. The emails were designed to trick their victims into clicking a link that would install malware or send them to a fake but familiar-looking login site to harvest their passwords. The malicious links were hidden behind short URLs of the sort often used on Twitter.

Today we have further confirmation of the ongoing kompromat operation. Mark Hosenball at Reuters (h/t: Josh Marshall) is now reporting that US intelligence agencies, including the FBI, are now investigating released hacked emails that show very obvious signs of being tampered with.

The FBI and U.S. intelligence agencies are examining faked documents aimed at discrediting the Hillary Clinton campaign as part of a broader investigation into what U.S. officials believe has been an attempt by Russia to disrupt the presidential election, people with knowledge of the matter said.

U.S. intelligence officials have warned privately that a campaign they believe is backed by the Russian government to undermine the credibility of the U.S. presidential election could move beyond the hacking of Democratic Party email systems. That could include posting fictional evidence of voter fraud or other disinformation in the run-up to voting on Nov. 8, U.S. officials have said.

In fact they include complete fabrications, which is something that experts like Malcolm Nance have argued for weeks that we are seeing.

“We have no way of knowing whether this is real or not unless Hillary Clinton goes through everything they’ve said and comes out and says it cross-correlates and this is true,” said Malcolm Nance, a former U.S. intelligence analyst who has spoken frequently in defense of the Democratic nominee and has made the case that the WikiLeaks releases contain manipulated information.

Hosenball goes on to document the kompromat:

In addition to the Carper letter, the FBI has also reviewed a seven-page electronic document that carries the logos of Democratic pollster Joel Benenson’s firm, the Benenson Strategy Group, and the Clinton Foundation, a person with knowledge of the matter said.

The document, identified as a fake by the Clinton campaign, claims poll ratings had plunged for Clinton and called for “severe strategy changes for November” that could include “staged civil unrest” and “radiological attack” with dirty bombs to disrupt the vote.

Like the Carper letter, it was not immediately clear where the fraudulent document had originated or how it had begun to circulate.

On Oct. 20, Roger Stone, a former Trump aide and Republican operative, linked to a copy of the document on Twitter with the tag, “If this is real: OMG!!”

Benenson’s firm had no immediate comment. Craig Minassian, a spokesman for the Clinton Foundation, said the document was “fake.” He said he did not know if the FBI had examined it.

Stone did not respond to emails requesting comment.

It is unclear how any of this might fit into the ongoing accusations and assertions, including the battling leaks from seemingly different factions within the FBI, about links between Trump, his current or former aides/advisor, and his business’s financial ties to Russia. Regardless of how the Russians are involved, what is clear is that Putin is definitely getting what he wants: making America and democracy look terrible as part of his larger strategic objective to roll back the current global order.

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Reader Interactions

306Comments

  1. 1.

    the Conster, la Citoyenne

    November 3, 2016 at 9:12 pm

    Looks like a duck, walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, maybe Trump is Putin’s duck? He keeps telling us he is.

  2. 2.

    Baud

    November 3, 2016 at 9:13 pm

    The document, identified as a fake by the Clinton campaign, claims poll ratings had plunged for Clinton and called for “severe strategy changes for November” that could include “staged civil unrest” and “radiological attack” with dirty bombs to disrupt the vote.

    Clearly fake. Clinton’s plan involves biological weapons.

    Did these emails come from wikileaks?

  3. 3.

    Lit3Bolt

    November 3, 2016 at 9:15 pm

    The Republican argument for making common cause with Russia and the KGB: “At least they’re white.”

  4. 4.

    jl

    November 3, 2016 at 9:16 pm

    @Baud: Dammit Baud, if you had got your ass in gear and won the damn nomination, the disruption plan would involve lots of free beer in the vicinity of polling places.

    You really let the country down.

  5. 5.

    SP

    November 3, 2016 at 9:16 pm

    Gee, what could have given away the Stone document as a fake? The claim Hillary is down 50, the argument that Bill Mitchell is taken seriously on the Twitters, or the recommendation to skip the smallpox release and instead FAKE AN ALIEN INVASION?
    But hey, RCP probably folded that poll result into their model.

  6. 6.

    Patricia Kayden

    November 3, 2016 at 9:18 pm

    @Lit3Bolt: I’m sure that’s how White Supremacists like David Duke feel although I’ve met Russians who were not White.

    This meddling by Russia and Assange are unprecedented. It’s as if we’re in the Twilight Zone.

  7. 7.

    Villago Delenda Est

    November 3, 2016 at 9:19 pm

    @Lit3Bolt: Back in the day, the Russians kept insisting they were as white as Brits, French, and Germans, and all should unite against the “Yellow Peril”, but also, too, the saying was “scratch a Russian, find a Tatar.”

  8. 8.

    Baud

    November 3, 2016 at 9:19 pm

    @SP: Nate Silver has already downgraded Clinton’s chances.

  9. 9.

    piratedan

    November 3, 2016 at 9:20 pm

    well as of yet, they still haven’t tripped to the fact that we send subliminal cultural attacks on them via cat videos and mayhap they never will.

  10. 10.

    Major Major Major Major

    November 3, 2016 at 9:21 pm

    What’s surprising to me is that they’re so bad at this. Being sloppy with metadata and URL shorteners here and there I can understand, but their misreading of the electorate, political climate, and media is almost shocking.

  11. 11.

    jl

    November 3, 2016 at 9:21 pm

    @Lit3Bolt: Does seem like the very serious patriotic party tends to find alliances of convenience with foreign governments during presidential elections. The murky doings of some McCain and Dub/Cheney people were involved in the blow-up of the Russia/Ossetia/Georgia border conflict in 2000. And that lead to some convenient saber rattling by McCain, which ended quickly after it was clear the scheme would not work.

    Rombot didn’t bother with foreign intrigue, maybe because they convinced themselves the polls showed a big win for them and foreign assistance was not needed.

  12. 12.

    Baud

    November 3, 2016 at 9:21 pm

    @jl: I didn’t realize it at the time, but it’s clear Russian meddling cost me the nomination. Can’t blame them. I look better than Putin on horseback.

  13. 13.

    Villago Delenda Est

    November 3, 2016 at 9:21 pm

    @Baud: Nate is being very, very conservative in the hopes of maintaining his rep, which has taken some hits recently for being too attuned to the Village.

  14. 14.

    jl

    November 3, 2016 at 9:23 pm

    @Baud:

    ” I didn’t realize it at the time, but it’s clear Russian meddling cost me the nomination. Can’t blame them. I look better than Putin on horseback. ”

    WTF? That means you drank up all the free vodka and didn’t share?

  15. 15.

    Elmo

    November 3, 2016 at 9:23 pm

    @Lit3Bolt: You jest, but I have seen posts at FreeRepublic that come very, very close to using those exact words.

  16. 16.

    Adam L Silverman

    November 3, 2016 at 9:23 pm

    @Lit3Bolt: @Patricia Kayden: @Villago Delenda Est: There have been longstanding, at least a decade if not longer, connections between the American extreme right (white supremacists, white nationalists, neo-NAZIs, now the alt-right, etc) with extreme elements in Russia. This has especially manifested as Putinphilia.

  17. 17.

    a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q)

    November 3, 2016 at 9:24 pm

    @Baud:

    WOR Owen Ellickson ‏@onlxn Nov 2
    DS!!!
    MOOK: An Oklahoma state rep said you deserve a firing squad.
    HILLARY: These guys and firing squads. Just poison me!

  18. 18.

    Mary G

    November 3, 2016 at 9:24 pm

    Fuck Putin. We are going to get our woman elected and push Obama to crack down on Comey and the FBI after. Just got an email that Democrats here are getting up at 6 a.m. Saturday to start calling battleground states all weekend or until their voices give out. Keep fighting. GOTV.

    All this other stuff, scary as it is, is a shiny object distracting us from our primary purpose. Get a Democratic president and Senate majority elected on Tuesday. Then we can turn to this crap from Putin, the KKK, etc. etc.

  19. 19.

    Villago Delenda Est

    November 3, 2016 at 9:24 pm

    @jl: That shit with Georgia in 2008 demonstrated decisively that McCain is a dilettante when it comes to global strategy. There was no way to include Georgia in NATO because the logistics are damn near impossible, even for the miracle workers who do logistics for the US Military.

  20. 20.

    jl

    November 3, 2016 at 9:25 pm

    @Adam L Silverman:

    ” Putinphilia.”
    Can you say that on a family blog? Sounds dirtier than ‘Pooty-Poot’.

  21. 21.

    Major Major Major Major

    November 3, 2016 at 9:26 pm

    @Villago Delenda Est: as regular readers may have noticed, Silver is basically dead to me after this election if Trump doesn’t win or almost win.

  22. 22.

    Patricia Kayden

    November 3, 2016 at 9:26 pm

    @jl: Yet Republicans love to play up the Red Scare and run their mouths about communism. Funny that.

  23. 23.

    GrandJury

    November 3, 2016 at 9:28 pm

    @Baud: This just shows how bad the Russian Gov’t is at understanding Western Culture. To them that fake email probably sounded believable.

    I’m sure they probably have people who are much better at it but those people are probably busy doing more serious spy stuff. They are probably not good with computers either.

    I hear Edward Snowden is looking for a job. Would not be surprised if he was already doing stuff for them.

  24. 24.

    Patricia Kayden

    November 3, 2016 at 9:28 pm

    @Mary G: That’s the spirit!! Yes we can! Yes we will. Because we must. Trump will never be my President.

    And let’s get a Senate that President Clinton can actually work with.

  25. 25.

    Adam L Silverman

    November 3, 2016 at 9:29 pm

    @Major Major Major Major: Considering that despite the sloppiness they are actually getting results, I’d say they’re better at it than their lack of expertise would seem to indicate. Most Americans have no idea about what I’ve put up top or in the three previous posts. But they do know about all of Clinton’s emails that were hacked (even though they’re actually Podesta’s) and all the terrible stuff in them (even though it runs the gamut from the mundane of how to actually run a professional campaign to the delicious risotto recipe).

  26. 26.

    Adam L Silverman

    November 3, 2016 at 9:30 pm

    Maddow just teased a scoop, for after the break, that’s going to break everywhere else tomorrow and will impact the election after talking about Russian hacks (and Russian aircraft carriers). Don’t touch that dial!

  27. 27.

    Adam L Silverman

    November 3, 2016 at 9:31 pm

    And its Eichenwald, Trump campaign, and Russian hacking.

  28. 28.

    jl

    November 3, 2016 at 9:31 pm

    @Villago Delenda Est: My point was unscrupulous resource to foreign intrigue by GOP. Somebody or group of bodies encouraged Sakashvili to do some irresponsible filibustering. Regardless of differing views about the border conflict there, It ended up a mess. I think one of McCain’s foreign policy advisers was doing some murky ‘consulting’ in Georgia at the time.

  29. 29.

    Tilda Swinton's Bald Cap

    November 3, 2016 at 9:31 pm

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Most Americans have no idea about what I’ve put up top or in the three previous posts. But they do know about all of Clinton’s emails that were hacked (even though they’re actually Podesta’s) and all the terrible stuff in them (even though it runs the gamut from the mundane of how to actually run a professional campaign to the delicious risotto recipe).

    Your liberal media !

  30. 30.

    Major Major Major Major

    November 3, 2016 at 9:33 pm

    @Adam L Silverman: sounds like another of Eichenwald’s lead balloons. Not that there isn’t substance, just, well, nobody cares.

    ETA: @Adam L Silverman: All that means is that they successfully got “Hillary” and “emails” into the same headline. The content has as you mention been immaterial. Maybe that’s the point, but if so it feels like a wasted opportunity.

  31. 31.

    Mnemosyne

    November 3, 2016 at 9:33 pm

    @Major Major Major Major:

    their misreading of the electorate, political climate, and media is almost shocking.

    How did they misread the media? They produced sloppy, barely believable shit that should have been discredited immediately, and the media ran with it just like the hackers wanted.

    I do think that the Russians misread the electorate, because they didn’t realize that white media pundits and white Republicans are not the majority of the electorate. On the other hand, they seem to have read the Republican electorate just fine.

  32. 32.

    BethanyAnne

    November 3, 2016 at 9:33 pm

    I haven’t really been keep up with the threads around here. So, I don’t know which troll adopted this position, but I’d bet one has: It’s so cute that Americans are finally concerned about other countries messing around in elections now.

  33. 33.

    Villago Delenda Est

    November 3, 2016 at 9:34 pm

    @Patricia Kayden: The thing is, they never quite grasped that the problem with the Soviet Union was that it was Russian Communism, reflecting Russian political culture. These guys have been tyrannical assholes from Ivan Grozny on. The nominal ideology has very little to do with their day to day behavior.

  34. 34.

    Tilda Swinton's Bald Cap

    November 3, 2016 at 9:34 pm

    @Major Major Major Major: Yep, I’m watching now. No sex or Hillary emails, so pffft.

  35. 35.

    Adam L Silverman

    November 3, 2016 at 9:34 pm

    @Major Major Major Major: Unfortunately. It will depend on what he actually reports out.

  36. 36.

    Peale

    November 3, 2016 at 9:35 pm

    So, where can one release this dirty bomb to win the election for Clinton? Just asking for a Friend. I was thinking the Villages in Florida, but my friend thought it was too obvious.

  37. 37.

    jl

    November 3, 2016 at 9:35 pm

    @BethanyAnne:

    ” It’s so cute that Americans are now concerned about other countries messing around in elections now. ”

    Hmm… has there been an ‘Orange Revolution’ yet? Is that color taken?

  38. 38.

    Villago Delenda Est

    November 3, 2016 at 9:36 pm

    @jl: Unscrupulous Rethug foreign intrigue dates back to Tricky Dick sabotaging the Paris Peace Talks and the shitty grade Z movie star playing footsie with the Ayatollahs.

  39. 39.

    Adam L Silverman

    November 3, 2016 at 9:36 pm

    @jl: That was Ukraine.

  40. 40.

    GrandJury

    November 3, 2016 at 9:36 pm

    To all the pantswetters worried about polls. Read this CNN interview with Sam Wang and calm down.

    Warning, a video + audio clip will autostart with one of their annoying bobbleheads talking about how tight florida is. So might want to hit the mute button.

  41. 41.

    hovercraft

    November 3, 2016 at 9:36 pm

    @Lit3Bolt:

    The Republican argument for making common cause with Russia and the KGB: “At least they’re white.”

    This is why they need to keep the country white, or rather “Make The Country White Again”

    Marc Caputo ✔@MarcACaputo
    Hillary Clinton has historic 30-point lead over Trump w/FL Hispanics. That should “terrify” the GOP POLITICO
    6:44 PM – 3 Nov 2016
    372 372 Retweets 499 499 likes

    Marc Caputo ✔@MarcACaputo
    This poll surveyed 800 likely FL Hispanic voters. Some surveys don’t even poll that many Florida voters overall
    6:48 PM – 3 Nov 2016
    34 34 Retweets 63 63 likes

  42. 42.

    Bill E Pilgrim

    November 3, 2016 at 9:36 pm

    @jl: That’s how you say ” I feel ya” in Russian.

  43. 43.

    JPL

    November 3, 2016 at 9:39 pm

    @Adam L Silverman: If it isn’t about sex, no one cares.. By no one, I mean Repubs.

  44. 44.

    jl

    November 3, 2016 at 9:40 pm

    @Villago Delenda Est: Thing is, Russia is up to no good wrt to Ossetia/Georgia border conflict. But, from what I read, Sakashvilli did some stupid shit that caused a little war, conveniently timed to be during an election when some kind of foreign policy dust-up would, by conventional wisdom, favor the GOP, and coincidentally had been a very recent (or current, I forget) client of McCain’s main foreign policy advisers, and McCain was on TV yelling about it almost before the first artillery barrages stopped.

  45. 45.

    Tilda Swinton's Bald Cap

    November 3, 2016 at 9:40 pm

    @JPL: Unless we get the honeypot tape with the underage participants ain’t no big deal.

  46. 46.

    Adam L Silverman

    November 3, 2016 at 9:41 pm

    @JPL: Even then they don’t care unless it involves a Democrat. When was the last Republican to resign or be driven out of office over a sex scandal? Foley? That was it. Hastert stayed in. So did Vitter and Sandford is back.

  47. 47.

    liberal

    November 3, 2016 at 9:41 pm

    LOL

  48. 48.

    Major Major Major Major

    November 3, 2016 at 9:42 pm

    @Mnemosyne: ok, maybe not the media. You know, if all you paid attention to was the MSM i could see how you’d end up thinking white republicans were the vast majority of voters…

  49. 49.

    jl

    November 3, 2016 at 9:42 pm

    @Adam L Silverman: OK, Too bad. Trump needs another tone of spray-on tan and hair dye then. We want our own color revolution, not some second hand one.

  50. 50.

    Baud

    November 3, 2016 at 9:42 pm

    @Tilda Swinton’s Bald Cap: Yep.

  51. 51.

    Joel

    November 3, 2016 at 9:42 pm

    @Adam L Silverman: you should check out Sam Bees piece this week — the one with the trolls. The US right wing is primed for exploitation.

  52. 52.

    Villago Delenda Est

    November 3, 2016 at 9:42 pm

    @jl: Russia is up to no good EVERYWHERE in the former territory of the Empire and the USSR. They want that empire back. The thing with Georgia is it was a lousy place to make a stand, as to actually support Georgia’s foolishness with any military presence is a logistical nightmare.

  53. 53.

    BethanyAnne

    November 3, 2016 at 9:45 pm

    @jl: Just thinking that the news of Russia interfering in American elections probably is a source of great amusement in Chile or Iran.

  54. 54.

    Mike J

    November 3, 2016 at 9:45 pm

    @Villago Delenda Est: They may want their empire back, but they don’t have the cash for a fifth floor walk-up.

  55. 55.

    Jay S

    November 3, 2016 at 9:48 pm

    I’m not sure how or if this squares with the NYC FBI leaking Clinton damaging stuff via a Giuliani-Trump connection. I suppose it might be compartmentalization, but is there a unified conspiracy theory here somewhere?

  56. 56.

    Tilda Swinton's Bald Cap

    November 3, 2016 at 9:50 pm

    @Jay S: Ha, my theory is the Russian hackers are helped the FBI fake emails and then load them on Weiner’s laptop. Just kidding, or am I ?

  57. 57.

    gogol's wife

    November 3, 2016 at 9:50 pm

    @BethanyAnne:

    Da, eto ochen’ umnoe zamechanie.

  58. 58.

    Major Major Major Major

    November 3, 2016 at 9:52 pm

    @Jay S: the FBI contains multiple factions ratfucking each other.

  59. 59.

    different-church-lady

    November 3, 2016 at 9:52 pm

    I’m leery of this “bomb dropping tomorrow” thing. It has the same kind of aroma as Assange’s empty threats. Pre-announced bombs tend to fizzle.

  60. 60.

    Mnemosyne

    November 3, 2016 at 9:52 pm

    @BethanyAnne:

    Just thinking that the news of Russia interfering in American elections probably is a source of great amusement in Chile or Iran.

    Yeah, I doubt those guys would have much sympathy for us. However, the other Western democracies are probably freaking the fuck out right now and checking for hacks, because if Russia is doing this to the US, you know they’ve been doing it to Germany, France, Great Britain, Spain, etc. etc. etc.

  61. 61.

    Major Major Major Major

    November 3, 2016 at 9:54 pm

    @different-church-lady: there’s also been a bomb dropping tomorrow for about 15 yesterdays at this point.

  62. 62.

    Mnemosyne

    November 3, 2016 at 9:55 pm

    @Jay S:

    AFAICT (and Adam can correct me), the conspiracy is that the Russians are feeding disguised propaganda to the US right wing, which is grabbing it with both hands without investigating the source and running to the media to get them to cover it. So it’s not (necessarily) that Republicans know they’re spouting Russian propaganda, but that’s still where the stuff they’re saying is coming from.

  63. 63.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    November 3, 2016 at 9:56 pm

    this is… interesting

    ‏@ jaketapper
    been hearing for weeks anecdotally about the CIA-FBI divide over this election.

  64. 64.

    Peale

    November 3, 2016 at 9:56 pm

    @Major Major Major Major: yep. I’m Kinda over these “hints” at “scoops”

  65. 65.

    Millard Filmore

    November 3, 2016 at 9:56 pm

    @Lit3Bolt:

    cause with Russia and the KGB: “At least they’re white.”

    And don’t forget they are both against teh gays also too.

  66. 66.

    Baud

    November 3, 2016 at 9:56 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: CIA to the rescue!

  67. 67.

    Peale

    November 3, 2016 at 9:57 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: well, that’s kind of a pick your poison situation. Yay! The CIA might be on our side?

  68. 68.

    srv

    November 3, 2016 at 9:57 pm

    If all this were true, what would Comrade Vlad have to do before Obama acts? The clock is ticking.

  69. 69.

    dmsilev

    November 3, 2016 at 9:58 pm

    @different-church-lady: Tomorrow is really the last day that a pre-planned bomb could usefully drop. Less news coverage over the weekend, and then Monday/Tuesday is really too late to change anybody’s mind. So, we’re almost there.

  70. 70.

    BethanyAnne

    November 3, 2016 at 9:58 pm

    @Mnemosyne:

    I hired you to help me start a war subvert an election. It’s a prestigious line of work, with a long and glorious tradition.

  71. 71.

    Mary G

    November 3, 2016 at 9:58 pm

    Why do we even need another bomb dropped on Trump? Aren’t the things we know about him enough already?

  72. 72.

    Omnes Omnibus

    November 3, 2016 at 9:58 pm

    @Major Major Major Major: I do not think that many Russians really grasp Democracy. The majority of Russian history has been autocracy. I think a good number have tried, but I am not sure how well it took.

  73. 73.

    Major Major Major Major

    November 3, 2016 at 9:58 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: spooks vs. executive branch is what emailghazi has always been about, this would surprise me not at all.

  74. 74.

    GregB

    November 3, 2016 at 9:59 pm

    Trump is hoping for a Circus Peanut Revolution with the alley-oop from the Breitbart/FBI/KGB axis.

  75. 75.

    JeffH

    November 3, 2016 at 9:59 pm

    A friend of mine with a much stronger stomach than I have tends to monitor the alt-right nuts and he’s currently laughing over the fact that apparently they’ve decided that Podesta talking about food in the stolen e-mails is actually a code involving child trafficking. Supposedly they are getting incredibly worked up over it.

  76. 76.

    Omnes Omnibus

    November 3, 2016 at 9:59 pm

    @jl: Nixon and Reagan. How could you forget them?

  77. 77.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    November 3, 2016 at 10:00 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: spy vs spy, and leak vs leak

    Blake Hounsell ‏@ blakehounshell 2h2 hours ago
    ABC has a source saying the FBI’s presentation on its Clinton Foundation findings was “not impressive”

  78. 78.

    Peale

    November 3, 2016 at 10:00 pm

    @BethanyAnne: as a point of order, we did not interfere with elections. Otherwise we wouldn’t have needed to organize the coups.

  79. 79.

    EZSmirkzz

    November 3, 2016 at 10:00 pm

    Let’s not loose sight of the forest for the trees in all of this. If these stories are true, and to what extent they are or are not is still to be determined, what is glaringly obvious is the political system of the United States is becoming destabilized, whether by capitalist, leftists, rightists, and various and sundry ethnic, religious, and racial interlopers, depending on which periscope one tends to view the world through, and our political, and economic leaders seem to have no awareness of that destabilization, and therefore lack any motivation to address what is becoming the most dangerous threat to the United States since the invasion of 1812. We need not discern motives of any foreign power at this point, only acknowledge the threat thereof.

    Given the acrimony of red/blue, conservative/liberal online exchanges, the collapse of the fourth estate, and the continuing decline in American civic educational levels, and frankly a fullness of bread and abundance of idle time, we have reached a state where Russia, of any other hostile state for that matter could and would exploit what we like to refer to as internal affairs, which would be true only if American powers were exclusively exercised within our own borders. It require extremely dedicated men and women to the principles and duties of democracy, in political, economic and public realms to hold republics together, something which this country no longer produces in any measurable quantity which has led us into this state of affairs, and the ensuing chaos will inevitably lead to the destruction of our current political state. We are dooming ourselves to repetition of the rise and fall of other democracies, which perished under the weight of their empires, whether Greek or Roman.

    We no longer base our political parties on philosophical principles, but on the wants and desires of an increasingly ill-informed, judgmental population, being lead astray by ever more self-centered power corrupted politicians whose sole political purpose is the retention of their own fiefdoms of dolts and peasants. Having no monsters abroad to conquer, they have invented them here at home, unable or unwilling to grasp and deal with the historical reality of post WW2 America.

    If Russia is indeed involved as deeply as is suspected, then they may very well fear the rise of Clinton and the neo-cons to power. If all these things are true then, what leverage they have on Trump will only be applied once he assumes the office of President.

    It is time that all of our civil servants remember, no matter what their position, that the final say of guilt or innocence belongs to a jury of American citizens in a trial, and not they themselves, in whatever capacity they serve, at whatever level they occupy. It is not in their purview to destabilize the republic, even though they think themselves the paragons of patriotism.

  80. 80.

    BethanyAnne

    November 3, 2016 at 10:02 pm

    @Peale: Ha, good point.

  81. 81.

    Major Major Major Major

    November 3, 2016 at 10:02 pm

    Jesus, what the fuck is going on at Silver’s place? He has Hillary down to like 2/3.

  82. 82.

    Adam L Silverman

    November 3, 2016 at 10:03 pm

    @Villago Delenda Est: It was also a bad outcome of the Bush 43 Administration building the Coalition of the Willing (Billing) for Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF). The Bush 43 folks, as well as surrogates like Senator McCain, wink winked and nudge nudged the Georgians that if they helped us out it would help get them into NATO. We had the Georgian Battalion, the 33rd, attached to our BCT. When Russia rolled into Georgia we, of course, facilitated them going home. 3 of the 8 KIAs up to that point in our OE since we took over from the previous BCT were Georgians. They kept asking us: “You’re coming? You’re coming to help us too? We came to help you.” Perhaps the only time I’ve ever been embarrassed to be an American.

  83. 83.

    dmsilev

    November 3, 2016 at 10:04 pm

    @EZSmirkzz:

    If Russia is indeed involved as deeply as is suspected, then they may very well fear the rise of Clinton and the neo-cons to power.

    Umm, no. Clinton may have a more hawkish outlook than Obama, but she bears no resemblance to the neocons.

  84. 84.

    Adam L Silverman

    November 3, 2016 at 10:04 pm

    @Jay S: Most likely no.

  85. 85.

    Jay S

    November 3, 2016 at 10:04 pm

    @Major Major Major Major: Yeah, intra-agency rivalry could be one explanation, or inter-agency FBI vrs the world. The Giuliani connection seems to be NYC mostly ex-FBI via The Daily Beast. There have been claims of NYC vrs DC office wars. But there was an assertion that most of the FBI was both anti Clinton and pro Trump.
    Seriously, I’m not sure anyone has any real insight into the agency’s psyche. There’s just a bunch of unsourced talk. Much of it contradicting.

  86. 86.

    dmsilev

    November 3, 2016 at 10:07 pm

    @Major Major Major Major: His model this time round has a lot of screwy features, basically he adopted a kitchen-sink approach to adding in correction factors and additional data inputs and stuff. As a result, he’s got seriously too many adjustable parameters (for instance, he adjusts polls based on a ‘trend’ analysis which explicitly amplifies fluctuations). It’s just a mess now.

  87. 87.

    different-church-lady

    November 3, 2016 at 10:08 pm

    @efgoldman:

    What’s Russian for The Onion?

    Pravda.

  88. 88.

    GregB

    November 3, 2016 at 10:08 pm

    Larry Sabato on the noiz saying that one if the untold stories is the mobilized Hispanic vote coming out for Clinton. Says she will win Nevada and NC.

  89. 89.

    Adam L Silverman

    November 3, 2016 at 10:09 pm

    @Mnemosyne: They are. It was in some of the reporting on the hacks. The European leadership is scared to death that if Putin can pull this off in the US, after financing Brexit/UKIP under the table, then what chance do they have for their own internal politics, as well as for maintaining the EU and NATO.

  90. 90.

    Davis X. Machina

    November 3, 2016 at 10:09 pm

    @Lit3Bolt: Allies for the Revolution can be more easily found if we are free to canvass both the state’s present friends. and the state’s present enemies. In promoting the Revolution, and the leading role of the Party as the Vanguard of that Revolution, one must be ruthless in jettisoning, if necessary, any lingering loyalty to the presently-existing historical state. It is doomed to wither away after the Revolution anyways.

    The Republicans are the last major Leninist party in the West.

  91. 91.

    Mnemosyne

    November 3, 2016 at 10:09 pm

    @Jay S:

    The contradictory talk is what’s making me think it’s an intra-agency war (possibly intra to multiple agencies) that’s spilling out into the public. Everybody has their side that they’re trying to sell and everyone has an agenda.

  92. 92.

    Major Major Major Major

    November 3, 2016 at 10:09 pm

    @dmsilev: I know, I’m just complaining. His model is terrible but my friends keep sharing it on FB so I keep seeing it ?

  93. 93.

    Adam L Silverman

    November 3, 2016 at 10:10 pm

    @Mnemosyne: From what I put up top, yes. I haven’t seen the Eichenwald reporting, so I really don’t know exactly what he’s delineating.

  94. 94.

    Omnes Omnibus

    November 3, 2016 at 10:12 pm

    @Peale: Of course we interfered with elections. We did not do it successfully in the places where we resorted to engineering coups.

  95. 95.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    November 3, 2016 at 10:12 pm

    @Adam L Silverman: Rachel Maddow has a preview, sounds like what she got was a partial preview, don’t know how quickly that stuff gets up on line

  96. 96.

    Bill E Pilgrim

    November 3, 2016 at 10:13 pm

    @efgoldman:

    What’s Russian for The Onion?

    “The Adventures of Rocky and Bullwinkle”

  97. 97.

    Jay S

    November 3, 2016 at 10:13 pm

    @Mnemosyne: @Adam L Silverman: I agree, but it is strange that the Russian email links and the recent Huma email kerfuffle intersect with FBI investigations. Ones that might be at cross purposes.

  98. 98.

    dr. luba

    November 3, 2016 at 10:13 pm

    @Adam L Silverman: All the more reason to continue, if not crank up, the sanctions. The sooner Russia goes bankrupt, the sooner they may have to cut back on meddling abroad.

  99. 99.

    Omnes Omnibus

    November 3, 2016 at 10:14 pm

    @EZSmirkzz:

    rise of Clinton and the neo-cons

    You are a silly person.

  100. 100.

    Major Major Major Major

    November 3, 2016 at 10:14 pm

    One of my idiot friends just posted two things on FB in a row. One, a meme saying doctors should be judged not by how many patients they put on medicine but by how many patients they take off medicine; and two, wondering why if the Standing Rock protests are happening on Indian land the protestors don’t just get a bunch of guns and shoot anybody who tries to take them away.

    Wow, she is insane. Stein voter, by the way.

  101. 101.

    Peale

    November 3, 2016 at 10:15 pm

    @GregB: I do hope it turns out to be true. The mid term elections have also been brutal and insulting to Hispanics with little impact on participation rates. While I always expected Hillary to get A larger share than Romney, we need more voters.

  102. 102.

    hovercraft

    November 3, 2016 at 10:15 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    ABC has a source saying the FBI’s presentation on its Clinton Foundation findings was “not impressive”

    I am shocked, shocked, surely “Clinton Cash” was not an unimpeachable source of the Clinton’s corrupt dealings. For the DOJ to not accept the findings in this investigative tome, is proof of the DOJ’s bias against Trump and their coddling of Hillary Clinton.

  103. 103.

    Adam L Silverman

    November 3, 2016 at 10:15 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: This was sort of reported out the other day with the reporting that Comey wanted, and got, the FBI’s name kept off the released assessment over Russian being behind the hacking. I think its also a difference in how each side does counterintelligence. This comes down to personnel is policy. The folks doing the investigation on the Agency side are in the Directorate of Analysis. They are highly educated, very smart folks who’s specialty is doing research and analysis. The FBI investigators are a combination of special agents and professional analysts. The former are Federal cops. The latter are also highly educated, very smart folks who’s specialty is doing research and analysis, but they work for the special agents. So you can kind of see how the dynamic would go.

    https://www.cia.gov/offices-of-cia/intelligence-analysis/what-we-do.html
    https://www.fbi.gov/services

  104. 104.

    Mandalay

    November 3, 2016 at 10:16 pm

    @dmsilev:

    It’s just a mess now.

    Sam Wang: Clinton Nov. win probability: random drift 97%, Bayesian 99%

    Nate Silver:Who will win the presidency? Chance of winning Hillary Clinton 66.5%

    So if Trump wins, Sam is obviously more wrong than Nate.

    But if Clinton wins, is Sam more obviously right than Nate? If not, why not?

  105. 105.

    mike in dc

    November 3, 2016 at 10:16 pm

    The good thing is that the FBI “bombs” are being defused fairly rapidly. The Clinton Foundation thing is getting shot down hard by follow up reporting, and the stories about the animus of some agents for Clinton basically undermines their whole attack.

    I don’t know if there will be a blockbuster dropping tomorrow, but there should be at least some moderately damaging stories about Trump. Fahrenthold is going to wrap up his investigation of the Trump Foundation, there’s the Times story on Trump fudging his income reporting, and the Eichenwald story about the Russians trying to make Trump their Siberian Candidate. Plus there may be something dropped by a Clinton superpac, someone at the Apprentice, and/or a NeverTrumper. Maybe some new women coming forward. Who knows, really? Trump is definitionally a target-rich environment.

  106. 106.

    Mnemosyne

    November 3, 2016 at 10:17 pm

    @Jay S:

    In my paranoid moments, I wonder about there being another Robert Hanssen currently inside the FBI, but one who’s a lot better at covering his tracks.

  107. 107.

    Adam L Silverman

    November 3, 2016 at 10:19 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: Pete Williams from NBC has also debunked the investigation into the Clinton Foundation:
    http://www.mediaite.com/tv/nbc-news-pete-williams-reports-fbi-really-isnt-conducting-clinton-foundation-investigation/

    Appearing on MSNBC’s MTP Daily today, NBC News’ justice correspondent Pete Williams refuted much of the reporting from Wall Street Journal and Fox News regarding a likely indictment regarding an FBI investigation into the Clinton Foundation. Fox’s Bret Baier later backed off slightly, saying the indictment comment was “inartfully answered.”

    Speaking to host Chuck Todd, Williams claimed that via his own law enforcement sources, there doesn’t actually appear to be much of an investigation, let alone one that will result in indictments.

    “There really isn’t one,” Williams answered Todd regarding the status of the investigation. “Few want to call it an investigation. That’s a term of art in the FBI. There was an initial inquiry that was opened a couple months ago based largely on media reports and a book called Clinton Cash.”

    Williams also addressed a Fox story that states the there was a 99% chance that five foreign intelligence entities breached Hillary Clinton’s private email server. Williams tossed cold water on that one as well, stating that there is “no such view” and that they “found no positive proof of successful hacks.”

  108. 108.

    Baud

    November 3, 2016 at 10:19 pm

    @Major Major Major Major: Do you have any normal friends?

  109. 109.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    November 3, 2016 at 10:20 pm

    @Mnemosyne: I don’t think they need a conscious traitor, just an idiot who thinks he’s saving the country from Hitlery.

    One of things Wayne Barrett I think pointed out is that the culture of the FBI is very male, very conservative, very Catholic, and looking up Hanssen on Wiki I was reminded that he was a member of Opus Dei

  110. 110.

    SP

    November 3, 2016 at 10:20 pm

    Hypothetically, if the final bomb were the rumored Trump Moscow orgy sex tape- will tanking his campaign have been worth the collective brain damage from seeing such a monstrosity?

  111. 111.

    Omnes Omnibus

    November 3, 2016 at 10:21 pm

    @Baud: You’ve talked with M4 before. What do you think?

  112. 112.

    Joel

    November 3, 2016 at 10:21 pm

    @Mandalay: That is correct, actually.

    The only way to test confidence is retroactively — if you hedge you should be penalized for that, even if you favored the winning outcome.

    aggregating the aggregators:
    NYT/Upshot: Clinton 86%
    Huffpo/Pollster: Clinton 98%
    DKOS/Linzer: Clinton 93%

    I’m not sure I’d give 99% on anything, really, but 90+ percent makes a fair amount of sense.

  113. 113.

    BruceFromOhio

    November 3, 2016 at 10:21 pm

    Adam, you are like a contemporary Steve Gilliard. Thank you for your attention to detail, and your writings. This stuff takes time to read, consider, and comprehend, and you share all this in a way that lets others benefit from your perspective.

    It is greatly appreciated.

  114. 114.

    PPCLI

    November 3, 2016 at 10:21 pm

    @efgoldman: Yes. Like when there was a widespread delusion across the wingnutosphere in Texas that a large military training exercise was actually a process of preparing for martial law. When it was finally pointed out by trusted military people (i.e 100% Americans) just how insane they were being, they said, “OK, we were wrong. Our soldiers weren’t massing to round us all up and ship us off to camps. But it’s Obama’s fault for acting in such a tyrannical fashion As to make the theory absolutely believable!”

    This is not a joke, I heard this on right-wing radio repeatedly.

  115. 115.

    Tilda Swinton's Bald Cap

    November 3, 2016 at 10:21 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    very male, very conservative, very Catholic

    Kind of like SCOTUS then.

  116. 116.

    Adam L Silverman

    November 3, 2016 at 10:21 pm

    @EZSmirkzz: You understand the neo-Cons, despite some hemming and hawing because of Trump, are not Clinton supporters, not Democrats, and are highly unlikely to have much influence, let alone actual positions, in a Clinton 45 Administration.

  117. 117.

    Omnes Omnibus

    November 3, 2016 at 10:21 pm

    @SP: Yes.

  118. 118.

    Major Major Major Major

    November 3, 2016 at 10:22 pm

    @Mandalay: the whole point of a prediction is accuracy. If Hillary wins Sam is the most right of them all since he’s had her at 99% for a while now.

  119. 119.

    Adam L Silverman

    November 3, 2016 at 10:22 pm

    @efgoldman: RT and/or Sputnik News.

  120. 120.

    Baud

    November 3, 2016 at 10:22 pm

    @SP: Yes.

  121. 121.

    dmsilev

    November 3, 2016 at 10:22 pm

    @SP: Look on the bright side. We will have finally, indisputably, reached peak wingnut. Because there’s nothing that could possibly be worse than a Donald Trump underaged-girl sex tape made by Russian Intelligence. I simply refuse to believe that anything worse could exist.

  122. 122.

    PPCLI

    November 3, 2016 at 10:22 pm

    @SP: I’m going to fast forward through the hot Putin-on-Trump sex with my eyes closed….

  123. 123.

    Omnes Omnibus

    November 3, 2016 at 10:23 pm

    @Tilda Swinton’s Bald Cap: No.
    @Adam L Silverman: And no.

  124. 124.

    different-church-lady

    November 3, 2016 at 10:23 pm

    @Baud: On Facebook, nobody has any normal friends.

  125. 125.

    Adam L Silverman

    November 3, 2016 at 10:23 pm

    @Davis X. Machina: Without a doubt.

  126. 126.

    Bill E Pilgrim

    November 3, 2016 at 10:23 pm

    @Mandalay: This, despite being in Politico, is a good article. The most interesting part is about how with polls that jump around a lot week to week this is heavily due to one party or the other less enthusiastic about responding to polls, but that doesn’t actually mean anything about what happens when people finally vote.

    In other words, when there’s bad news about Donald Trump, like his poor debate performances and the leaked audio of Trump describing how he gropes women, Republicans are less likely to participate in polls. On the other hand, when the news is dominated by stories about Clinton’s email scandal, Democrats don’t want to respond to pollsters. Attitudes in high-profile races don’t shift as much as a lot of the polls show.

    Internal polling with larger samples shows less volatility.

    This seems a good tally of tallies, none of them have her losing and none of them have him getting more than 215.

  127. 127.

    Major Major Major Major

    November 3, 2016 at 10:24 pm

    @Baud: @Omnes Omnibus: I have many normal friends, but why would I complain about them here? I can start giving you updates on their nihilist means and opinions on Beyoncé if you’d like.

  128. 128.

    divF

    November 3, 2016 at 10:24 pm

    @Davis X. Machina: Boy, that brings back memories…

  129. 129.

    Joel

    November 3, 2016 at 10:25 pm

    While we’re on the subject of statistics, I should note that the temperature was 80 degrees here in Western PA this week. I haven’t lived here long enough to comment on how abnormal that is, but it’s pretty abnormal. We’re not going to get a frost for another week, at least.

  130. 130.

    Poopyman

    November 3, 2016 at 10:25 pm

    @srv: Pooty-poot ought to think twice before stepping into an electronically controlled elevator.

  131. 131.

    Baud

    November 3, 2016 at 10:26 pm

    @Major Major Major Major: That’s what passes for normal in your world?

  132. 132.

    PPCLI

    November 3, 2016 at 10:27 pm

    @Major Major Major Major: I hope they don’t evaluate physicians treating type 1 diabetes that way.

  133. 133.

    hovercraft

    November 3, 2016 at 10:27 pm

    @GregB:
    John Ralston said earlier that the winner of Nevada should be known after tomorrow when more than 60 % of the state will have voted. He was the first one yesterday when the CNN poll showed Trump up by 5 or 6 to call bullshit. The shitgibbon has mobilized the Latino vote like nothing else we’ve seen. And as the POLITICO article I linked to earlier showed, in Florida he is polling really low among Latinos, beating Hillary by only 7 points with Cuban Americans.

  134. 134.

    Omnes Omnibus

    November 3, 2016 at 10:27 pm

    @Major Major Major Major: I have very few normal friends. Weirdness is what makes them interesting. My point being, I meant no insult.

  135. 135.

    Jay S

    November 3, 2016 at 10:27 pm

    @Mandalay: No,
    It’s really about error bars and probabilities. The winner or loser alone doesn’t tell us much since both models allow for either one to win. The variance of the results from each of the states might tell us who had the better model, but my statistics knowledge is fairly basic.

  136. 136.

    Mandalay

    November 3, 2016 at 10:28 pm

    @Joel:

    The only way to test confidence is retroactively — if you hedge you should be penalized for that, even if you favored the winning outcome.

    OK, gotcha. But suppose Clinton just scrapes in by a handful of votes. In that scenario wouldn’t you feel in your gut that Nate’s hedging was “more correct” than Sam’s 97% probability? (I’m asking because the issue confuses me.)

  137. 137.

    bluehill

    November 3, 2016 at 10:28 pm

    @Mnemosyne: The Russians seem to understand Americans enough to know which buttons to push. They understand where the fissures are in our country and are using these soft weapons to open them up further aided by a some opportunists/idiots like Roger Stone, Breitbart, etc.

    From that perspective it’s a cost-effective strategy. It’s a different form of asymmetrical warfare (although I’ll defer to Adam) like 9/11 in some ways only using disinformation rather than airplanes. I think OBL was hoping that the attack would compel the U.S. to attack Afghanistan, which was highly likely regardless of who was president. I don’t know if he thought that the U.S. would then turn it’s attention on Iraq. I’m guessing that was just a bonus outcome.

    For the Russians, I don’t know if they think the odds of Trump winning are that high despite their efforts. That could be their longshot outcome. That or a civil war. I think their more realistic goals are to widen further the divisions among the populace, within the government and between the populace and the government. Basically just to create a lot of infighting so that our attention in focused inwards making it easier for them to do muck around in Europe and the Middle East. Yes, I’ve read too many Clancy novels.

  138. 138.

    Villago Delenda Est

    November 3, 2016 at 10:28 pm

    @Mnemosyne: The Russians know exactly what the wingnuts want to hear, and so they provide it. They know that no vetting or even hesitating will take place, the wingnuts will run with it, because for a change, it’s not coming from a voice inside their head, so it must have some credibility to it.

  139. 139.

    Adam L Silverman

    November 3, 2016 at 10:28 pm

    @Mnemosyne: The FBI is a law enforcement agency that has grown into a domestic security and intelligence one as well. This is, because of the statutes that created it, the actual role of the Department of Homeland Security. The Intel Community, the other 18 agencies (17 within the DOD and the CIA, which is purely civilian), are by charter and statute outward looking focusing on potential foreign threats and other issues within the international realm. So there is a very, very different focus and worldview of what the two different communities do. And of the people that self select and are selected by hiring authorities to work in them.

  140. 140.

    Major Major Major Major

    November 3, 2016 at 10:29 pm

    @Baud: comic book stuff, the onion, yes on light rail… a Steely Danzig mashup is making the rounds!

  141. 141.

    Omnes Omnibus

    November 3, 2016 at 10:29 pm

    @Mandalay: No.

  142. 142.

    EZSmirkzz

    November 3, 2016 at 10:29 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus: Actually I’m an informed person, and that little bit of verbiage is what the left, and some on the right are articulating about Clinton. I suppose you will expand on your comment beyond the “you’re a puppet” mental gymnastics of Trump won’t you?

  143. 143.

    Adam L Silverman

    November 3, 2016 at 10:29 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus: Or in the case of Iran under Mossadegh, sent someone to foment a coup, who wound up hiding in a basement and the coup happened anyway and he then took credit for doing a good job to his superiors.

  144. 144.

    Baud

    November 3, 2016 at 10:30 pm

    @Major Major Major Major: I was just having fun. I gots no friends.

  145. 145.

    Bill E Pilgrim

    November 3, 2016 at 10:30 pm

    Election 2016 – Moose and Squirrel: The Sex Tape.

    I’ve given up thinking “Okay, this is now as weird as it could get”. We’re well through the looking glasnost, comrades, hold on to your ushanka. And pour me a pair of stroikas.

  146. 146.

    Adam L Silverman

    November 3, 2016 at 10:31 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: It’ll go up between midnight EDT and 8 AM EDT. Eichenwald had only this to say about Maddow’s coverage:

    Follow

    Kurt EichenwaldVerified account
    ‏@kurteichenwald
    Details of my story for tomorrow about to be revealed in a couple of minutes on @maddow on @msnbc apparently.

  147. 147.

    divF

    November 3, 2016 at 10:32 pm

    @Bill E Pilgrim: I drink mine out of a granyonyi stakan, TYVM.

  148. 148.

    Jeffro

    November 3, 2016 at 10:32 pm

    @GregB:

    Larry Sabato on the noiz saying that one if the untold stories is the mobilized Hispanic vote coming out for Clinton. Says she will win Nevada and NC.

    Can’t say I’m surprised this is an ‘untold’ story, as this would be a) Hispanic voters who are b) for Clinton. If they’re not Trump wackaloons at a rally or air quote “undecided” “voters”, this wasn’t their year to get any press, that’s for sure.

  149. 149.

    Villago Delenda Est

    November 3, 2016 at 10:32 pm

    @SP: If it destroys the lives of his vile spawn out of Ivana, yes.

  150. 150.

    EZSmirkzz

    November 3, 2016 at 10:32 pm

    @Adam L Silverman: Agreed. I thought that a rather minor point in my post.

    I should add, I suppose if we wish to discuss Neo-cons we should define the term.

  151. 151.

    Davis X. Machina

    November 3, 2016 at 10:32 pm

    @Adam L Silverman: Right down to the wagon-circling around Trump. Democratic centralism in action.

  152. 152.

    Major Major Major Major

    November 3, 2016 at 10:32 pm

    @Mandalay: winning is a binary choice, and since the point of a prediction is to predict something in advance, the model that zeroed in on the winner confidently and first should be the winning model. If your concern is their more granular accuracy then yes I’d look at the states. I would also discount the last week of the campaign because at that point just averaging polls is going to be your most accurate “model”. There’s no real prediction.

  153. 153.

    Mandalay

    November 3, 2016 at 10:33 pm

    @Bill E Pilgrim:

    This seems a good tally of tallies, none of them have her losing and none of them have him getting more than 215.

    Interesting and heartwarming, yet Nate has Trump on 243 right now. Go figure.

  154. 154.

    Bill E Pilgrim

    November 3, 2016 at 10:34 pm

    @divF: Ushanka a whole stroika in one go? Danny Wa?

  155. 155.

    Villago Delenda Est

    November 3, 2016 at 10:34 pm

    @Adam L Silverman: We’ve already seen all this “indictments are just around the corner!” crap back in the 90’s from that utter fraud Starr.

  156. 156.

    Omnes Omnibus

    November 3, 2016 at 10:34 pm

    @EZSmirkzz: Informed does not eliminate silly. If you think that HRC is a neocon, you are missing something. Neocon =/= more interventionist than you like.

  157. 157.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    November 3, 2016 at 10:34 pm

    @Adam L Silverman: my summary would be he has details about Russia working to support Trump with the long term goal of destabilizing NATO, and Europeans are very nervous about a potential Trump presidency. One detail: The Russians thought Trump would have to drop out of the race after attacking the Kahns, they briefly stopped feeding stuff, she didn’t say to whom, but I assume Assange et al.

  158. 158.

    Adam L Silverman

    November 3, 2016 at 10:35 pm

    @Peale: Here you go:

    Follow

    Ronald Brownstein
    ‏@RonBrownstein
    This will matter: Per @mmurraypolitics HRC leads w/AZ Latinos by 40 in NBC/WSJ @maristpoll. In > sample @Univision AZ Latino poll, its +49.

    and

    Follow

    Ronald Brownstein
    ‏@RonBrownstein Ronald Brownstein Retweeted Andrew Baumann
    Likewise @UnivisionNews NV Latino poll shows @HillaryClinton +53 vs. +47 in their final 2012 survey.

  159. 159.

    Omnes Omnibus

    November 3, 2016 at 10:35 pm

    @Adam L Silverman: Jeez, yes, that too.

  160. 160.

    divF

    November 3, 2016 at 10:35 pm

    @Bill E Pilgrim: If that’s what you are serving, I can drink anyone under the table.

  161. 161.

    Joel

    November 3, 2016 at 10:36 pm

    @Mandalay: Not really.

    A prediction should have a margin and an error. The win probability is derived from both of those numbers.

    You can credit someone for having the correct margin — e.g. the vote shares in each state/nationally and some predictors try to do that. That’s a measure of accuracy. But precision matters too, and that’s where the error comes in. Aggregators like Wang attach high confidence (low error) to their predictions. Silver is the opposite. Their margins are probably actually pretty close. It’s hard to know with Silver, exactly, because his model isn’t completely transparent.

  162. 162.

    Jeffro

    November 3, 2016 at 10:36 pm

    @PPCLI:

    it’s Obama’s fault for acting in such a tyrannical fashion As to make the theory absolutely believable!

    Now there’s a fun one to take on at the Thanksgiving table with Gramps…

  163. 163.

    Peale

    November 3, 2016 at 10:36 pm

    @Villago Delenda Est: or they don’t, but just are lucky. I mean, if you believe that Hillary would condone releasing radiation to steal an election, that the kingdoms of Morocco and Saudi Arabia and the UAE are our enemies, that 10,000 Syrians were brought in to the country and granted immediate voting rights to swing Idaho to Clinton, that Bill and Hillary kept a 13 year old as a sex slave while he was governor of Arkansas, that The Clintons need money so John Podesta traffics children for them…how hard do you really have to try to pollute the wingosphere..

  164. 164.

    Major Major Major Major

    November 3, 2016 at 10:36 pm

    @Mandalay: Nate has been a huge outlier all year and as has been discussed probably has a really shitty model. I say probably because he won’t release any methodological details, which also happens to be a hallmark of shitty models and shitty modelers, at least in my industry.

  165. 165.

    Baud

    November 3, 2016 at 10:37 pm

    @Adam L Silverman: O’Donnell had someone on a couple of days ago that said Hillary was getting a large share of GOP early votes in Florida. The full survey was supposed to be released and be a bombshell, but I haven’t heard anything about it since.

  166. 166.

    Bill E Pilgrim

    November 3, 2016 at 10:38 pm

    @Mandalay: Hey just throwing out the evidence I see. He’s really good, but just one of many. He deserves attention having gotten it so right before, but well, opinions vary.

    God knows I can’t predict what’s going to happen.

  167. 167.

    Tilda Swinton's Bald Cap

    November 3, 2016 at 10:39 pm

    @Baud: Thought I saw that at DKos.

  168. 168.

    Mandalay

    November 3, 2016 at 10:39 pm

    @Joel: OK. Thanks.

  169. 169.

    Poopyman

    November 3, 2016 at 10:39 pm

    @dmsilev:

    there’s nothing that could possibly be worse than a Donald Trump underaged-girl sex tape made by Russian Intelligence. I simply refuse to believe that anything worse could exist.

    Well, there’s clown porn. Oh wait! That is clown porn.

  170. 170.

    Baud

    November 3, 2016 at 10:39 pm

    @Tilda Swinton’s Bald Cap: I don’t go there.

  171. 171.

    Omnes Omnibus

    November 3, 2016 at 10:40 pm

    @Poopyman: Eek!

  172. 172.

    Tilda Swinton's Bald Cap

    November 3, 2016 at 10:40 pm

    @Baud: Cool.

  173. 173.

    Peale

    November 3, 2016 at 10:42 pm

    @Poopyman: it wouldn’t be too bad. They’d scramble the bodies and faces of the girls to protect them, and us from watching underaged sex acts, so all we’d really see is…oh. No.

  174. 174.

    redshirt

    November 3, 2016 at 10:42 pm

    What crazy times! Too bad Russia didn’t think of this strategy 150 years ago. If they had gotten involved in the hot Civil War (as opposed to this Cold one), they might have made a real difference.

    This time they are just helping America purge itself of the GOP. Through very dangerous means.

  175. 175.

    Tilda Swinton's Bald Cap

    November 3, 2016 at 10:43 pm

    @Peale: In theory anyone possessing or seeing that could be in deep shit. So I guess it gets turned over to the FBI, oh shit …..

  176. 176.

    Adam L Silverman

    November 3, 2016 at 10:44 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: this goes to the personnel is policy issue. There are basically four cohorts of employees at the FBI. The political appointees running things at the top (Director for instance). Then three groups of civil servants: special agents, analysts, and professional staff (office administrators, things like that). Of these the special agents are what Barrett was referring to. And here there is both a self selection bias and then an internal selection bias. Self selection in terms of who decides to apply to become a special agent. Internal selection in terms of who the hiring committees determine is the make, model, and type that they want and then over the course of a career in terms of promotion. So if the folks at the top of this cohort of FBI personnel are predominantly white, male, Catholic, and conservative they will tend to select recruits and other special agents for promotion who fit the same make, model, and type. We see this in the military as well on the promotion boards there.

  177. 177.

    Major Major Major Major

    November 3, 2016 at 10:44 pm

    @redshirt: this being balloon juice I’m sure somebody will correct you with a link to some time Russia interfered in the civil war any second.

  178. 178.

    mike in dc

    November 3, 2016 at 10:44 pm

    @Adam L Silverman:

    So, basically, the seeds of Trump’s defeat were laid…during his announcement of his candidacy.

  179. 179.

    PPCLI

    November 3, 2016 at 10:45 pm

    Thanks, Adam, this was really a terrific post. Quality information, backed up by interesting documentation, I learned new things on almost every line.

  180. 180.

    pseudonymous in nc

    November 3, 2016 at 10:45 pm

    The story about prepping for “cyberattack Tuesday” isn’t a surprise.

    Everyone’s assuming DDOSes, but I’m more concerned about a torrent of shitposting either about Hillary or about supposed voter fraud or saying that polling places are closed or… you know the stuff. I’m also worried about the equivalent of SWATting at polling places.

  181. 181.

    Kay

    November 3, 2016 at 10:45 pm

    I would just like to congratulate the IRS for not leaking Trump’s tax returns, although Republicans have been attacking the people who work there for the last 8 years on totally made-up grounds.

    Glad SOME people are professionals and not prone to petty, vindictive tantrums.

  182. 182.

    redshirt

    November 3, 2016 at 10:46 pm

    @Major Major Major Major: Hope so! That would be a cool historical fact I never learned. I’m always open to new knowledge.

  183. 183.

    Baud

    November 3, 2016 at 10:47 pm

    @Kay: Ha!

  184. 184.

    Joel

    November 3, 2016 at 10:47 pm

    @Adam L Silverman: When you say, “make, model…” it makes me think of a day when law enforcement (for better or worse) is automated. I actually think that will happen, but not in our lifetimes.

  185. 185.

    Mnemosyne

    November 3, 2016 at 10:47 pm

    @bluehill:

    Well, this is where my crazy cockeyed optimism as an American peeks out: I think that the US is decades ahead of Western Europe when it comes to dealing with multicultural issues, so if the Russians think it will be as easy to divide us along ethnic/racial lines as it has been in places like Scandinavia where they’re essentially confronting the issue for the first time, they’ve badly miscalculated.

    There will not be a civil war in the US if Trump is not elected. Nah. Ga. Happen. There just aren’t that many angry white people who are also young enough and disaffected enough to form some kind of guerrilla movement. We all saw how fast the Malheur occupation broke down into chaos. How are those guys going to pull off some kind of nationwide civil war?

  186. 186.

    Adam L Silverman

    November 3, 2016 at 10:47 pm

    @BruceFromOhio: Thanks and you’re quite welcome.

  187. 187.

    divF

    November 3, 2016 at 10:49 pm

    @Adam L Silverman: Hasn’t the military done a better job than the FBI at diversity, i.e. promoting POC, and more recently women?

  188. 188.

    Adam L Silverman

    November 3, 2016 at 10:49 pm

    @PPCLI: Never forget!!!
    https://scontent.cdninstagram.com/hphotos-xpf1/t51.2885-15/e15/11205707_662559587178807_1446061182_n.jpg

  189. 189.

    Miss Bianca

    November 3, 2016 at 10:49 pm

    @Baud: Jesus. I don’t know whether to laugh or cry at the combination of sheer malice of intent and sheer klutziness of execution. “Dirty bombs”? FFS.

    But, you know, it would *politicize* things to release any details of Trump’s dealings with these fuckers. Talk about dirty bombs…

  190. 190.

    Alain the site fixer

    November 3, 2016 at 10:49 pm

    @Adam L Silverman: is that Kermit Roosevelt?

  191. 191.

    Omnes Omnibus

    November 3, 2016 at 10:49 pm

    @divF: Yes.

  192. 192.

    Lizzy L

    November 3, 2016 at 10:50 pm

    From Fox:

    Donald Trump denies he is interested in launching a new conservative news venture, but somebody sure is. What’s being billed as an “up-and-coming conservative media network currently in development” is now scouring for hosts, reporters and right-leaning, well-spoken panelists, according to a brand new casting notice obtained Wednesday evening by Fox News.

    The Russian propagandists are smiling…

  193. 193.

    Peale

    November 3, 2016 at 10:50 pm

    @Kay: yep. I was thinking about that the other day. This FBI crap is not normal and we shouldn’t pretend that it is.

  194. 194.

    dmsilev

    November 3, 2016 at 10:50 pm

    @Peale:

    They’d scramble the bodies and faces of the girls to protect them, and us from watching underaged sex acts, so all we’d really see is…oh. No.

    But at least the fact-checkers would finally be able to weigh in on that claim Trump made back during that primary debate about the size of his pen!s.

  195. 195.

    Adam L Silverman

    November 3, 2016 at 10:51 pm

    @Joel: I lived in Carlisle for four years and the Philadelphia suburbs for one. That’s unusual.

  196. 196.

    PPCLI

    November 3, 2016 at 10:52 pm

    @Major Major Major Major: Well, they had a longer game in mind. They took advantage of the post-civil war chaos to sell Alaska to the U.S. in 1867, already beginning the preparations for the emergence of Sarah Palin.

  197. 197.

    mike in dc

    November 3, 2016 at 10:52 pm

    @Lizzy L:

    How many blondes work at RT?

  198. 198.

    Baud

    November 3, 2016 at 10:52 pm

    @PPCLI: Bastards!

  199. 199.

    dmsilev

    November 3, 2016 at 10:52 pm

    @Miss Bianca: There was also the faked polling memo showing Trump ahead 77-19 or something like that. I think it’s like the Nigerian Prince scam emails: supposedly, they’re deliberately non-grammatical and obvious so that the scammers don’t waste their time on people likely to see through the scam, but instead filter for the seriously credulous.

  200. 200.

    Davis X. Machina

    November 3, 2016 at 10:53 pm

    @Mnemosyne:

    How are those guys going to pull off some kind of nationwide civil war?

    It won’t happen immediately. Political, and then economic stasis for a few years, followed by local and particularlist attempts to circumvent it, with that then degenerate into Freikorps-esque actors. Committees of public safety, local militias, etc.

    That’s how the American revolution went…. there was no Bastille.

  201. 201.

    Adam L Silverman

    November 3, 2016 at 10:53 pm

    @bluehill: Its a form of asymmetric/unconventional warfare. Its basically a type of Psychological Operations.

  202. 202.

    Villago Delenda Est

    November 3, 2016 at 10:53 pm

    @JeffH: It’s always projection with these assholes. Always.

  203. 203.

    Kay

    November 3, 2016 at 10:53 pm

    @Baud:

    House conservatives revived a long-shot effort Tuesday to oust IRS Commissioner John Koskinen, formally introducing an impeachment resolution expected to see a vote by the end of the week.
    Rep. John Fleming, R-La., a sponsor of the drive, offered the measure under special procedures that put the House on track to vote Thursday on the effort.
    Conservatives say Koskinen hampered Congress’ effort to investigate the IRS for tough assessments of Tea Party groups that sought tax exemptions several years ago. Koskinen denies that.

    Complete and utter bullshit – they smeared those people for 8 years- and yet not one of them leaked douchebag’s tax returns although everyone in the world wants them and they could easily do it.

    They’re extremely poor judges of character, conservatives.

  204. 204.

    hovercraft

    November 3, 2016 at 10:54 pm

    @Baud:
    From TargetSmart and William & Mary College Here is the document. Several people who are familiar with Florida politics dismissed it, and since it didn’t fit the horserace narrative the media ignored it. You know if it had said Clinton was losing a bunch of democrats and the experts dismissed it, it would still have led every broadcast.

  205. 205.

    Villago Delenda Est

    November 3, 2016 at 10:55 pm

    @Davis X. Machina: The American Revolution was not against a central state; it was against a colonial power by 13 separate political entities. The Brits signed 13 peace treaties with 13 colonies. The Brits still view it as a civil war they lost.

  206. 206.

    Adam L Silverman

    November 3, 2016 at 10:56 pm

    @EZSmirkzz: No worries, I saw your other replies and understand better what you were trying to say.

  207. 207.

    Major Major Major Major

    November 3, 2016 at 10:56 pm

    @pseudonymous in nc: certainly possible, but I recall from the prior two elections I was worried about similar things and they didn’t happen. At any rate, GOTV! Gotta make the final tally unhackable!

  208. 208.

    Baud

    November 3, 2016 at 10:56 pm

    @Kay: but that would be scandalous!

    @hovercraft: I’m a little skeptical too, but you are right about the double standard.

  209. 209.

    Adam L Silverman

    November 3, 2016 at 10:57 pm

    @Villago Delenda Est: Yep, they always air reruns the week of the World Series.

  210. 210.

    Timurid

    November 3, 2016 at 10:58 pm

    @Mandalay:

    The only way Silver gets vindicated in this scenario is… the hard way.
    Wang will owe him many bottle caps, if Nate can somehow make it past all the Deathclaws in the Princeton Wastes and collect in person…

  211. 211.

    Miss Bianca

    November 3, 2016 at 10:58 pm

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Maddow just teased a scoop, for after the break, that’s going to break everywhere else tomorrow and will impact the election after talking about Russian hacks (and Russian aircraft carriers). Don’t touch that dial!

    Knowing your opinion of Frau Doktor Maddow, I’m going to take this as an indication that I should keep breathing, over here.

  212. 212.

    Adam L Silverman

    November 3, 2016 at 10:58 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus: About what you’d expect from a guy named Kermit.

  213. 213.

    FlipYrWhig

    November 3, 2016 at 10:58 pm

    @Jay S: How about this? The FBI team working on Trump and the Russians keeps getting warmer and warmer, but the FBI team working on random Hillary Clinton crapola keeps coming up dry, so the second group thinks, Fuck this, this isn’t fair, we all know she’s dirty anyway, let’s take her out while we still have a chance.

  214. 214.

    Jeffro

    November 3, 2016 at 10:59 pm

    @Davis X. Machina:(re: an American Civil War 2)

    It won’t happen immediately. Political, and then economic stasis for a few years, followed by local and particularlist attempts to circumvent it, with that then degenerate into Freikorps-esque actors. Committees of public safety, local militias, etc.

    That’s how the American revolution went…. there was no Bastille

    meanwhile, Paul Waldman sums up the ACW 2 pre-game show quite nicely and by “nicely” I mean concisely and with just the right amount of chills down the spine…

  215. 215.

    redshirt

    November 3, 2016 at 10:59 pm

    Why can’t we have the last debate tonight? The Thursday before the election?

    I feel like this year, everytime Trump was exposed to the general public, his numbers tanked. But when he can stick with his rallies and hide behind Conservative media, his numbers rise. As if voters are fooled into voting for him.

    A debate now would force each candidate to bring their A game for the final stage. Too bad it will never happen.

  216. 216.

    Kay

    November 3, 2016 at 11:00 pm

    @Peale:

    Democrats who have defended the IRS as their GOP colleagues have declared war on the agency, its budget and its employees in recent years said Congress should be addressing poor customer service that’s resulted from the budget cuts, not a scandal that has long been resolved.

    They held 4 years of fake hearings where they’d order people to appear and then scream at them for 2 hours.

    Somehow the IRS managed not to interfere in the election although they are actual innocent victims of Republicans.

  217. 217.

    Mandalay

    November 3, 2016 at 11:00 pm

    @Kay:

    although everyone in the world wants them and they could easily do it

    My understanding from someone who works for the IRS is that it would be impossible for an employee to anonymously access Trump’s tax records.

    I don’t know what the penalties would be for an IRS employee to leak Trump’s tax history, but I can imagine that they are sufficiently severe that there is no need to heap praise on IRS employees for avoiding almost certain prosecution.

  218. 218.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    November 3, 2016 at 11:00 pm

    Matt Yglesias is reviewing some of the FBI’s greatest hits, from Hoover to BLM, including…

    EMAILS! ‏@ mattyglesias 27m27 minutes ago
    The FBI put Robert Hanssen in charge of figuring out who was the KGB mole in the FBI.

    Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Oops.

  219. 219.

    Adam L Silverman

    November 3, 2016 at 11:01 pm

    @Baud: I saw it. It was released as mentioned. I didn’t spend hours going through it, but from a cursory glance I didn’t see anything unusual or out of the ordinary.

  220. 220.

    Major Major Major Major

    November 3, 2016 at 11:01 pm

    @Timurid: I would play that game. Though I believe Wang’s preferred form of bet involves eating a bug.

  221. 221.

    different-church-lady

    November 3, 2016 at 11:01 pm

    @Baud: I thought early votes didn’t get counted until election day. They talking about exit polling at early voting places?

  222. 222.

    hovercraft

    November 3, 2016 at 11:02 pm

    @PPCLI:
    Has the FSB/KGB been using Obama’s time machine? Damn them!

  223. 223.

    SiubhanDuinne

    November 3, 2016 at 11:03 pm

    @Major Major Major Major: l

    Wow, she is insane. Stein voter, by the way.

    Pro tip: Eschew redundancy.

  224. 224.

    Major Major Major Major

    November 3, 2016 at 11:03 pm

    @Mandalay: the penalties are yuuuuge. No, really. It’s super illegal.

  225. 225.

    Baud

    November 3, 2016 at 11:03 pm

    @Adam L Silverman: I hope it holds up. Sounds positive.

    @different-church-lady: It’s essentially exit polling.

  226. 226.

    Omnes Omnibus

    November 3, 2016 at 11:04 pm

    @Adam L Silverman: K III wrote a nice little book about judicial activism. I recommend it highly.

  227. 227.

    hovercraft

    November 3, 2016 at 11:05 pm

    @Baud:
    I agree, those numbers were way to good to be true, and Steve Schale who’s Florida judgement I trust also called bullpucky.

  228. 228.

    Another Scott

    November 3, 2016 at 11:05 pm

    @redshirt: The Carter – Reagan debate was held October 28, 1980. It didn’t go so well for Jimmy.

    There are substantial risks in holding a debate too close to election day.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  229. 229.

    redshirt

    November 3, 2016 at 11:08 pm

    @Another Scott: Risks for the loser. The Winner, I assume, would win a late debate.

    Imagine Hillary and Donald debating tonight. It would seal Hillary’s victory.

  230. 230.

    Mike in NC

    November 3, 2016 at 11:08 pm

    Why are any of you hand-wringing idiots following Nate Silver or Chuck Todd? Joe Scarborough is a better source of defeatism.

  231. 231.

    catclub

    November 3, 2016 at 11:08 pm

    @redshirt:

    I feel like this year, everytime Trump was exposed to the general public, his numbers tanked. But when he can stick with his rallies and hide behind Conservative media, his numbers rise. As if voters are fooled into voting for him

    yep. Manafort told Trump he should win by saying nothing from June onward.
    The press would focus on Hillary. It would have worked better than him being in public. Luckily his ego would not countenance such a thing.

  232. 232.

    Major Major Major Major

    November 3, 2016 at 11:09 pm

    I feel like the media will be ready for a Clinton surging at the last second storyline Saturday/Sunday followed by one day of rampant speculation and then CHAOS AT THE POLLS!!!

  233. 233.

    MisterForkbeard

    November 3, 2016 at 11:09 pm

    @redshirt: I doubt that. The moderators and Trump would just keep asking about The Emails, and there’s not much Hillary can do to stop them short of calling out the FBI on live TV… which wouldn’t work out well. It would look really bad.

  234. 234.

    Omnes Omnibus

    November 3, 2016 at 11:09 pm

    @Mike in NC: Some people like doom porn. It’s not my kink.

  235. 235.

    different-church-lady

    November 3, 2016 at 11:09 pm

    Open thread. Good.

    I’m going to need to lean on you folks for a bit in ways I wouldn’t usually. As mentioned earlier, the other on-line dive I hang in has been overrun by Trump Trolls. When I’m feeling emotionally unsteady (which is a lot lately) I usually go there to get a bit of support. But I’m already plenty spooked by reality, so in my current state I couldn’t possibly put up with their reality distortion right now.

    Any rate… might be asking for some solace and advice if insomnia sets in tonight.

  236. 236.

    Another Scott

    November 3, 2016 at 11:11 pm

    @Mandalay: It’s a felony:

    Q. How many people have seen — or could see — the GOP nominee’s returns?

    A. According to tax experts and former IRS employees, tens of thousands of people have access to Trump’s tax information, if not his complete returns. Revenue agents, customer service staff and employees at walk-in tax assistance centers, plus a smaller number of federal contractors, use a master computer that shows a summary of everyone’s return. Once they enter a name or Social Security number, these employees could go further into the record, much like scanning a bank account.

    “It would take ten minutes,” said Richard M. Schickel, who retired from the IRS in 2013 as a senior revenue officer and wrote a book about the agency. The computer is a “museum of tax information,” he said: “Everyone is on it. You, your grandfather, your great uncle.”

    Q. So what prevents a curious IRS employee from taking a peek or passing Trump’s return to a reporter?

    A. For one thing, it’s a felony to disclose confidential tax information. Federal employees could lose their job, pension, freedom and reputation.

    The IRS says its 84,000 employees must attend annual trainings on taxpayer confidentiality. To identify snoopers, IRS computers track the electronic movements of all employees and contractors. Even an employee who legitimately opens the tax return of a neighbor of a high-profile taxpayer like Trump could be flagged, former IRS officials say.

    Here’s an example of what an agent browsing a taxpayer’s history might see:

    […image…]

    An example of an IRS transcript, which can be seen by tens of thousands of IRS employees. (Courtesy Richard Schickel)

    Not surprisingly, the IRS does not discuss specific tax returns.

    Q. But what if the employee just didn’t care about the consequences?

    It’s unlikely, say former IRS officials.

    “People underestimate the importance of culture,” said Fred Goldberg, a former IRS commissioner who has called on Trump to release his returns. “… The likelihood of someone at the IRS leaking this information is at most quite remote.”

    Q. But couldn’t an IRS employee take a peek at Trump’s tax returns without anyone knowing?

    A. Nope. Even looking at a return without good reason would throw the “white hot light of suspicion” on an employee, said Mark Matthews, an ex- IRS deputy commissioner. The agency’s computers, however outdated, know who is doing what.

    HTH.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  237. 237.

    Major Major Major Major

    November 3, 2016 at 11:11 pm

    @different-church-lady: have you seen Crazy Ex-Girlfriend? First season is on Netflix. Ripping good musical comedy/drama. Golden globe best comedy and best actress last year.

  238. 238.

    Mnemosyne

    November 3, 2016 at 11:12 pm

    BTW, here’s the email I just got from the Clinton campaign:

    I’m getting a LOT of calls, emails, and texts from people who are freaking out about the polls.

    I have one answer: If you’re nervous, roll up your sleeves and help us win this thing.

    Yes, ma’am!

  239. 239.

    Omnes Omnibus

    November 3, 2016 at 11:12 pm

    @different-church-lady: Try this.

  240. 240.

    Adam L Silverman

    November 3, 2016 at 11:13 pm

    @Major Major Major Major: @redshirt:
    Well there’s this:
    http://www.voltairenet.org/article169488.html

    The standard work on US-UK relations, Crook notes, was for many years E. D. Adams’ Great Britain and the American Civil War, which plays down friction between London and Washington, and narrates events “from the meridian of London.” (Crook 381)

    The Russia-American Special Relationship that Saved the Union

    Adams tells his reader that he does not view his topic as part of American history; rather, he poses for himself the contorted question of “how is the American Civil War to be depicted by historians of Great Britain…?” (Adams I 2) Adams treats the autumn crisis of 1862 as the main danger point of US-UK conflict, writing that “here, and here only, Great Britain voluntarily approached the danger of becoming involved in the American conflict.” (Adams II 34) He pleads for understanding for the much-vituperated British role, recalling that “the great crisis in America was almost equally a crisis in the domestic history of Great Britain itself…,” and providing valuable materials in this regard. (Adams I 2) Adams generally relegates Russo-American diplomacy to the footnotes, mentioning the “extreme friendship” and even the “special relationship” of these two nations. In the North, he notes, Russia was viewed as a “true friend” in contrast to the “unfriendly neutrality” of Great Britain and France. (Adams II, 45n, 70n, 225) But for Adams, the main lesson is that the Anglo-American disputes of the Civil War era have “distorted” the “natural ties of friendship, based upon ties of blood and a common heritage of literature and history and law” which exist or ought to exit between the two countries. Those disputes, he suggests, can be relegated to the category of “bitter and exaggerated memories.” (Adams II 305)

  241. 241.

    Trentrunner

    November 3, 2016 at 11:14 pm

    @Major Major Major Major: Second this. But know: If you start to think the main characters are annoyingly clueless, damaged, and oblivious, it’s intentional. Be patient.

    And the song/video parodies are great!

  242. 242.

    Mnemosyne

    November 3, 2016 at 11:14 pm

    @different-church-lady:

    No worries, this is usually a good place to hang out for such things. Though I should probably tell you that late-night has been pretty dead for a while now — everyone seems to be getting to sleep at a decent hour or something.

  243. 243.

    redshirt

    November 3, 2016 at 11:14 pm

    @different-church-lady: I have a great anti-insomnia technique, if you’re interested.

  244. 244.

    Major Major Major Major

    November 3, 2016 at 11:15 pm

    @Adam L Silverman: I knew it would be you! Though I expected something more substantial.

  245. 245.

    different-church-lady

    November 3, 2016 at 11:15 pm

    @redshirt: does it involve keeping a person in suspense?

  246. 246.

    Adam L Silverman

    November 3, 2016 at 11:15 pm

    @divF: Yes, but its easier to give the military orders to do something because of the nature of the laws governing the services, recruitment, etc.

  247. 247.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    November 3, 2016 at 11:15 pm

    Julia Ioffe ‏@ juliaioffe 5h5 hours ago
    I spent the day with Trump supporters in Tennessee. They told me the country is on the wrong path, and that the earth is flat. Literally.

  248. 248.

    Baud

    November 3, 2016 at 11:15 pm

    @Mnemosyne: That’s excellent

  249. 249.

    Adam L Silverman

    November 3, 2016 at 11:15 pm

    @Alain the site fixer: Yep.

  250. 250.

    Jack the Second

    November 3, 2016 at 11:17 pm

    You can’t necessarily critique Nate Silver any one election, but you can over several elections.

    If Nate is going into the final week of the election with a 2/3rds chance of the winner winning, then 1 year in 3 he should pick the wrong one. If he consistently picks the winner, 10, 20 elections in a row while just saying 60, 70, 80% likely, then he’s low balling it, intentionally or not.

    Personally, I’m a little skeptical that Nate wouldn’t be playing up the horserace angle and low balling the odds, just because: (a) he is now running a business based on people continuing to be interested in the election (b) he wants the election season to end even less than cable news, since he can’t report on car crashes and missing white girls in the off-season and (c) you can still be wrong with a 90% certainty, quite a bit, but it would destroy his credibility in the eyes of the innumerate. Much safer to be right with a 70%.

  251. 251.

    Alain the site fixer

    November 3, 2016 at 11:17 pm

    @Adam L Silverman: funny. Grew up with his grandson. Kooky parents. Always thought he’d been a “hero” so interesting to learn of it being semi-accidental. I guess being bold in claiming credit can make one go far!

  252. 252.

    Lizzy L

    November 3, 2016 at 11:18 pm

    @Jeffro: I read that this morning and had to go for a long walk, it freaked me out quite a bit.

  253. 253.

    Adam L Silverman

    November 3, 2016 at 11:19 pm

    @hovercraft: Unless Scherr (now emeritus), Schiccitanno, McDaniel, and Smith at UF political science say its bogus, then its not. They are the experts on politics and polling in Florida.

  254. 254.

    Mike J

    November 3, 2016 at 11:19 pm

    They aimed low in ye olden dayes.

    NextOnTCM Pacific ‏@NextOnTCM_PT 47 minutes ago
    THE DARK HORSE (1932) Warren William, Bette Davis, Guy Kibbee. Dir: Alfred E. Green 8:30 PM PT [cc] #comedy #TCM

    NextOnTCM Pacific ‏@NextOnTCM_PT 47 minutes ago
    A political machine backs a dimwitted candidate for governor. #TCM

  255. 255.

    Omnes Omnibus

    November 3, 2016 at 11:19 pm

    @Jack the Second: Hence our lack of trust with him this time around.

  256. 256.

    redshirt

    November 3, 2016 at 11:20 pm

    @different-church-lady: I… don’t think so. Maybe? Probably not.

  257. 257.

    Peale

    November 3, 2016 at 11:22 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: not to be a stickler, but doesn’t Thomas Friedman write about the same thing?

  258. 258.

    redshirt

    November 3, 2016 at 11:22 pm

    @Adam L Silverman: So what did Russia do in the American Civil War? I sense a thesis……

  259. 259.

    different-church-lady

    November 3, 2016 at 11:22 pm

    Yay! The Teddy Roosevelt documentary I did a little work on has hit the airwaves!

    ‘What Would Teddy Do?’

  260. 260.

    Fair Economist

    November 3, 2016 at 11:23 pm

    @Jack the Second:

    If Nate is going into the final week of the election with a 2/3rds chance of the winner winning, then 1 year in 3 he should pick the wrong one. If he consistently picks the winner, 10, 20 elections in a row while just saying 60, 70, 80% likely, then he’s low balling it, intentionally or not.

    We don’t have enough elections to say anything yet, but we do have enough states. By his probabilities Nate should have missed 8 states in 2008+2012, and he only missed one. So, yes, his uncertainty is too high.

  261. 261.

    Adam L Silverman

    November 3, 2016 at 11:25 pm

    @Major Major Major Major: I just did a quick google search, I’m trying to watch something.

  262. 262.

    Adam L Silverman

    November 3, 2016 at 11:27 pm

    @Alain the site fixer: He did do a lot of other things. I think he was also involved in the Bay of Pigs mess.

  263. 263.

    SRW1

    November 3, 2016 at 11:28 pm

    @Major Major Major Major:

    You mean, like, the intertoobz is the man-bites-dog tool for the little guy?

  264. 264.

    Gian

    November 3, 2016 at 11:30 pm

    @redshirt:

    the Russian fleet was though to have helped the Union during the treason for slavery war. Of course that wasn’t the real Russian aim, but their visit was at least seen as helpful. (they wanted to get away from the British Navy in the event a dispute over Poland went to war)

  265. 265.

    max

    November 3, 2016 at 11:46 pm

    @redshirt: So what did Russia do in the American Civil War? I sense a thesis……

    Nothing.

    Alexander II (Russian: Алекса́ндр II Никола́евич, tr. Aleksandr II Nikolaevich; IPA: [ɐlʲɪˈksandr ftɐˈroj nʲɪkɐˈlajɪvʲɪtɕ]; 29 April [O.S. 17 April] 1818 in Moscow – 13 March [O.S. 1 March] 1881 in Saint Petersburg) was the Emperor of Russia from 2 March 1855 until his assassination in 1881. He was also the King of Poland and the Grand Duke of Finland.

    Alexander’s most significant reform as emperor was emancipation of Russia’s serfs in 1861, for which he is known as Alexander the Liberator (Russian: Алекса́ндр Освободи́тель, tr. Aleksandr Osvoboditel; IPA: [ɐlʲɪˈksandr ɐsvəbɐˈdʲitʲɪlʲ]). The tsar was responsible for other reforms, including reorganizing the judicial system, setting up elected local judges, abolishing corporal punishment, promoting local self-government through the zemstvo system, imposing universal military service, ending some privileges of the nobility, and promoting university education.

    There was a bit of a feedback loop between the Tsar and US. The Tsar freeing the serfs became an argument for freeing the slaves. But the liberal reformers in Russia were taking cues from the US at the time. Then he sold us Alaska. Alexander was a liberal (of some sort) and his predecessor, Nicholas was a conservative.

    Russian interference in the US was mostly a early 20’s-early 50’s affair, consisting of CCCP penetration into the US. (And Henry Wallace was their choice for president, even though they weren’t his choice of party.)

    It was the British and the French who looked to take advantage of the Civil War.

    max
    [‘I would presume the narrative about Trump being run by Moscow is run by the usual sorts in DC using Wallace as their model.’]

  266. 266.

    Villago Delenda Est

    November 3, 2016 at 11:48 pm

    @redshirt: They had much closer to home issues to deal with back 150 years ago. For example, Alexander had just emancipated the serfs, and they had Turks and Brits and French and Great Game affairs to deal with. The Americas were pretty much off the map, even though they held Alaska, and were happy to sell it off to Seward in 1867.

  267. 267.

    Gian

    November 3, 2016 at 11:50 pm

    @max: @max:

    All of a sudden, when events seemed to be at their worst for the North, a ray of sunshine came over the horizon. The Russian fleet had arrived in New York and San Francisco harbors. It was the saving grace the Union needed. Oliver Wendell Holmes, referring to Alexander sending the Russian fleet to America, said he was “our friend when the world was our foe.” In Europe and the American Civil War, Donaldson Jordan and Edwin Pratt claim that “Europe and the North saw this visit of the Russian fleet as a significant demonstration of Russian friendship for the Union in its hour of need.” The incident had a lasting impact on Russian-American relations.

    The arrival of the fleet delighted the Lincoln administration. Thomas Bailey claims that “the morale of the United States received a definite boost at a time when it needed stimulants . . . . ” An excerpt from the diary of Secretary of the Navy Gideon Welles is an example of the jubilation felt by many Americans. He writes that:

    In sending them [the fleet] to this country there is something significant. What will be its effect on France and the French policy we shall learn in due time. It may be moderate; it may exasperate. God bless the Russians.

    http://www.loyno.edu/~history/journal/1983-4/delehaye.htm

    I know it’s a journal article and all but it does cite to other sources. The Russian Fleet did visit New York and San Francisco, in 1863.

  268. 268.

    Major Major Major Major

    November 3, 2016 at 11:53 pm

    @SRW1: huh?

  269. 269.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    November 3, 2016 at 11:53 pm

    one poll, no idea of the sample, et cetera, but I’l take good news where I can get it these days

    Manu Raju ‏@ mkraju 10h10 hours ago Washington, DC
    Q poll confirms GOP fears about #ncsen. Ross up 49-45 over Burr.

  270. 270.

    Mary G

    November 3, 2016 at 11:53 pm

    @Kay: I’ve been thinking about that, too. Some government agencies work well no matter how much the right screams about them.

  271. 271.

    kd bart

    November 3, 2016 at 11:56 pm

    @Another Scott: As a current IRS employee who does not have access to tax records, haven’t since 1997, this is true. At one time I worked in Automated Underreporter and had access to individual returns & IDRS. I had to turn over to my manager any case that cane across my desk an individual I knew. It happened a few times. I do recall seeing quite a few celebrity tax returns.

  272. 272.

    NotMax

    November 3, 2016 at 11:57 pm

    @Alain the site fixer

    Appears a recent FYWP update has re-enabled fonts.googleapis, which conceivably is slowing down the front page?

  273. 273.

    Librarian

    November 3, 2016 at 11:58 pm

    Russia supported the Union during the civil war. It showed this support most famously by sending its navy to visit NY and San Francisco. Russia wanted to show that, unlike Britain and France which considered recognizing the Confederacy, it was a true friend of the US.
    http://www.voltairenet.org/article169488.html

  274. 274.

    Librarian

    November 4, 2016 at 12:00 am

    I just contributed to the Russia/Civil War discussion, but it’s in moderation.

  275. 275.

    Mike J

    November 4, 2016 at 12:01 am

    @NotMax: And don’t forget, we still have problems with naked links, which is resolved by simply turning off outbound link tracking in the yoast plugin.

  276. 276.

    Lizzy L

    November 4, 2016 at 12:06 am

    Do not go to TPM, their election Scoreboard at the top of the page is now showing Clinton’s EVs at under 270. Stick with Sam Wang.

  277. 277.

    Major Major Major Major

    November 4, 2016 at 12:07 am

    @Lizzy L: TPM’s is weird. Most of the tracker trackers don’t even include it.

    ETA: just donated.

  278. 278.

    burnspbesq

    November 4, 2016 at 12:09 am

    @Baud:

    CIA to the rescue!

    You can bet that if it was Jack Ryan running for Prez, Clark and Chavez would be taking care of Putin as we speak.

  279. 279.

    redshirt

    November 4, 2016 at 12:10 am

    @Lizzy L: No way we lose this one. NO WAY.

  280. 280.

    Peale

    November 4, 2016 at 12:12 am

    I wonder if Russia did anything in Mexico during the same time. I mean someone had to support the Mexicans in that shameless land grab.

  281. 281.

    ruemara

    November 4, 2016 at 12:13 am

    When you consider that the Nation & Katherine Vandehuevel have been pushing that we need to ally with Russia and we need to stop this new cold war, then the Intercept & Glenn G are also talking about how it’s all being overstated this ridiculous Russian connection. Toss in Putin’s dinner buddy, Jill Stein… it does make one wonder how so many key left icons are so enamoured with a state that goes against pretty much every progressive value.

  282. 282.

    Major Major Major Major

    November 4, 2016 at 12:14 am

    @redshirt: This is not a fundraising email from a campaign that’s losing:

    I’m getting a LOT of calls, emails, and texts from people who are freaking out about the polls.

    I have one answer: If you’re nervous, roll up your sleeves and help us win this thing.

    The best way for you to do that at this very minute is by chipping in even just a few dollars to help us fund the final 120-hour sprint of this campaign. Because while we’ve been planning for a neck-and-neck finish all along, we need to be able to afford the ads we’ve got to air and the blocks we’ve got to walk in order to eke out this victory.

  283. 283.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    November 4, 2016 at 12:17 am

    @Major Major Major Major: This too belies the notion that they’re panicking about internal polls, from Buzzed

    Clinton Campaign Offers Endorsements, Organizing Help To Dozens Of Down-Ballot Dems
    One week out, the Clinton campaign has offered Democratic candidates — especially House candidates — endorsements and digital get-out-the-vote organizing firepower.

  284. 284.

    redshirt

    November 4, 2016 at 12:18 am

    @Major Major Major Major: I wonder if Clinton could afford a “Speech to the Nation” on the major networks Monday night. Maybe a 4 minute ad buy where she gives a direct speech to the voters.

  285. 285.

    redshirt

    November 4, 2016 at 12:19 am

    @ruemara: The far right and far left have finally joined forces and aligned their efforts with… Fascist Russia.

    Go figure.

  286. 286.

    Lizzy L

    November 4, 2016 at 12:20 am

    @Major Major Major Major: Good! I sent some $$ last night. And my Hilz T-shirt (it says “Proud to support Mme. President”) and bumper stickers arrived today!

  287. 287.

    sukabi

    November 4, 2016 at 12:22 am

    @Major Major Major Major: sounds more like what drumpf thinks.

  288. 288.

    Major Major Major Major

    November 4, 2016 at 12:24 am

    @redshirt: It’s so weird.

    @redshirt: Obama did that half-hour infomercial in 2008. Dunno if anybody watched.

  289. 289.

    redshirt

    November 4, 2016 at 12:29 am

    @Major Major Major Major: I did. But I was an Obot back then.

    It’s “funny”, the only time I felt as nervous during 2008 was when the Reverend Wright stuff first came out in like March. I was, at the time, like, “here we go”! But Obama handled it easily, of course.

    Wish I could say the same now.

  290. 290.

    Lizzy L

    November 4, 2016 at 12:33 am

    Nancy LeTourneau at Washington Monthly reported this today:

    Rep. Darrell Issa (R-CA), who is locked in a tight re-election race, on Wednesday told Republicans already threatening to impeach Hillary Clinton before she is even elected to “calm down” because it will never happen.

    “Okay, I’m gonna say, be the adult in the room and say ‘calm down, back off, it’s not gonna happen.’ The fact is we have impeached and removed from office nine federal judges in our history, no members of the executive branch, not a president, not a vice president, not a cabinet officer, so floating that word is usually a fairly reckless thing,” Issa told 760 KFMB San Diego radio’s “Brett Winterble Show” when asked to respond to those floating impeachment, according to a clip highlighted by CNN.

    I thought it was especially interesting (startling, though) coming from Issa, who was point man on those multiple investigations of The Emails. I suspect he’s saying this only because Doug Applegate is seriously threatening him, and he wants to appear like a reasonable man, but I know the Republicans in the House are in no way unified. Having Issa push back publicly against the talk about treason and impeachment is good.

  291. 291.

    redshirt

    November 4, 2016 at 12:35 am

    @Lizzy L: It’s good on the surface, but you’re right, he’s only saying such because he wants to win an election.

    This is the calculus all politicians undergo. They ultimately do reflect their constituents.

  292. 292.

    SRW1

    November 4, 2016 at 12:38 am

    @Major Major Major Major:

    “I have many normal friends, but why would I complain about them here?”

  293. 293.

    NotMax

    November 4, 2016 at 12:41 am

    @Peale

    Mid-19th century Mexico? That would be France.

  294. 294.

    Vhh

    November 4, 2016 at 12:44 am

    @Major Major Major Major: Nate has to keep the money-losing ESPN happy with clicks to keep their support for his core business, which is sports betting (as he openly admits). So he needs to keep volatility up so that people of all stripes read his site N times per day. Remember that polling I s seasonal, elections come every 2 years and the big ones every 4 years. It’s harvest time now !!

  295. 295.

    Ruckus

    November 4, 2016 at 12:48 am

    @Kay:

    They’re extremely poor judges of character, conservatives.

    Hard to judge something you have no experience at.

  296. 296.

    Lizzy L

    November 4, 2016 at 12:49 am

    @redshirt: It’s good because it contributes to the disunity and bad feelings among the House Republicans. I don’t want them unified (against Hillary); I want them disorganized and quarreling with each other. The evil bastards.

  297. 297.

    2liberal

    November 4, 2016 at 12:51 am

    i haven’t read the entire thread yet but the maddow teaser about tomorrows story is about a Newsweek front page story on Trump and the Russians

  298. 298.

    redshirt

    November 4, 2016 at 12:55 am

    @Lizzy L: They’ll all be very organized come 11/9.

  299. 299.

    Peale

    November 4, 2016 at 1:01 am

    @NotMax: I meant did Russia support Mexico against France and England?

  300. 300.

    sukabi

    November 4, 2016 at 1:15 am

    @hovercraft any bets that when it’s all sorted out that the “secret Clinton Foundation recordings were provided by James Okeefe and his idiots….

  301. 301.

    Miss Bianca

    November 4, 2016 at 1:27 am

    @Lizzy L:

    Donald Trump denies he is interested in launching a new conservative news venture,

    Reminds me of how Soviet newscasts used to start out: “There have been no riots in Red Square. Absolutely no protestors have been shot.”

  302. 302.

    Origuy

    November 4, 2016 at 2:12 am

    @Villago Delenda Est: How The Russian Navy Saved The Union In The Civil War

    A little-known alliance between the US and Tsarist Russia led to the Russian fleet showing up in force in New York and San Francisco. It arrived at a crucial time in 1863 when Britain and France were on the verge of intervening in the Civil War on the side of the Confederacy. An actual world war was on the horizon that would “wrap the world in flames” as Secretary of State William Seward put it. The mighty Russian presence deterred the Anglo-French from invading, and the Union was saved.

  303. 303.

    ?BillinGlendaleCA

    November 4, 2016 at 7:03 am

    @Mike in NC: If I watched Joe of the Morning today, I’d probably end up guzzling my mouthwash.

  304. 304.

    low-tech cyclist

    November 4, 2016 at 8:12 am

    On Oct. 20, Roger Stone, a former Trump aide and Republican operative, linked to a copy of the document on Twitter with the tag, “If this is real: OMG!!”

    How stupid, or how totally tunnel-visioned (I guess that’s just a specific kind of stupid, now that I think about it) would you have to be to think that might have had a remote chance of being real?

  305. 305.

    J R in WV

    November 4, 2016 at 12:40 pm

    @jl:

    Seriously, years ago, many years ago, a neighbor called late on election day and asked if I could drive him over the hill to the polling place to vote. I had already voted with Mrs J. But the answer was always yes to a question like that!

    After Tommy got out and went into the school (now long gone) I got out and strolled up the cars parked across the street from the old school, where I saw a Good Old Boy parked in his PU truck. This fellow ran a local garage and towing service, and seemed to have mechanics that could fix stuff.

    So I went over to chat while waiting for Tommy to mark his ballot. And after talking for a few minutes in the gathering darkness, Billy Joe said, “Business today is about over, you might as well have some of this” and pulled a case of bottles of whiskey out from under the passenger seat of the truck.

    I was appalled, and said “Well, you know I voted this morning, and just ran Tommy over so he could vote.” Billy told me as he already said, business was over, this was just one friend giving someone something he was done with. To be polite, I took the bottle, said “Well, thanks a lot, we’ll enjoy it this evening!” and Billy Joe said “That’s what it’s for, to make election day more fun!”

    I called the Feds later that night. Then we drank it.

    No point in wasting a perfectly good bottle of really cheap whiskey. Tommy’s been dead for decades, so this really was in a previous universe. They don’t pass out whiskey on election day any more, and polling places are protected, no one allowed to hang out in the parking lots.

    Now we see more sophisticated attempts at voter fraud, like dozens of absentee ballots completed in the same handwriting. Busted!

  306. 306.

    The Very Reverend Crimson Fire of Compassion

    November 7, 2016 at 12:57 pm

    @redshirt: Here you go. We’re nothing if not a full-service commentariat.

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