Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

After roe, women are no longer free.

We cannot abandon the truth and remain a free nation.

Not so fun when the rabbit gets the gun, is it?

He really is that stupid.

Prediction: the GOP will rethink its strategy of boycotting future committees.

Despite his magical powers, I don’t think Trump is thinking this through, to be honest.

Fuck these fucking interesting times.

The revolution will be supervised.

They love authoritarianism, but only when they get to be the authoritarians.

Today’s GOP: why go just far enough when too far is right there?

Bark louder, little dog.

And now I have baud making fun of me. this day can’t get worse.

This really is a full service blog.

Putting aside our relentless self-interest because the moral imperative is crystal clear.

I was promised a recession.

It’s time for the GOP to dust off that post-2012 autopsy, completely ignore it, and light the party on fire again.

I didn’t have alien invasion on my 2023 BINGO card.

White supremacy is terrorism.

Something needs to be done about our bogus SCOTUS.

Anyone who bans teaching American history has no right to shape America’s future.

You can’t attract Republican voters. You can only out organize them.

They traffic in fear. it is their only currency. if we are fearful, they are winning.

Let me eat cake. The rest of you could stand to lose some weight, frankly.

Fuck the extremist election deniers. What’s money for if not for keeping them out of office?

You are here: Home / Past Elections / Election 2016 / Friday Evening Open Thread: I Endorse This Anecdote

Friday Evening Open Thread: I Endorse This Anecdote

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Abigail and John Adams have been my favorite Founding Couple since I was tiny. It can be argued that there would not have been an American Revolution without John, and certainly the John Adams we know from history would never have existed without Abigail. Among the many things that make me happy when I think of Hillary Rodham Clinton becoming our first female President is the thought of how very happy Abigail Adams would have been to see it happen — finally!

Apart from happy thoughts, what’s on the agenda as we start the weekend?

Reader Interactions

266Comments

  2. 2.

    BGinCHI

    A humble prediction.

    After watching Obama get pilloried by Republicans with whom he tried to compromise to get things done, Hillary is going to smile right in their faces and then do everything she can to destroy them.

    Time to go to the mattresses, folks.

  3. 3.

    Trentrunner

    FYI, Obama’s by Al Sharpton will air on tonight’s All In.

    If Twitter is correct, he has some interesting things to say about voter suppression and GOTV.

  4. 4.

    Baud

    I don’t think I’d be a big Yglesias fan in normal times, but he has been great this election on calling out the media’s anti-Hillary bias.

  5. 5.

    amygdala

    Went to a book reading/signing last night by a HS pal. Tomorrow going to an art opening for a friend’s partner.

    Other than that, working on a lecture and doing some reading. Nothing looked interesting movie-wise. Looking forward to Loving, though.

  6. 6.

    inventor

    Pretty sure that letter was written in 1800, not 1900. Abigail Adams rocked in a late 18th-early 19th century kind of way.

  8. 8.

    Viva BrisVegas

    @Major Major Major Major:

    Seeing Doctor Strange on Sunday

    I was going to see Dr Strange last week, but my local cinema only had it in 3D and I hate 3D. So I looked up the next closest cinema and it only had it in 3D.

    So I gave up.

    All my problems are first world problems (because that’s where I live).

  10. 10.

    TriassicSands

    A man who does not belong to the Republican party I knew or know.

    Nonsense. Sorry, Mr. Dingell, but you haven’t been paying attention.

  12. 12.

    jl

    @Baud: Ygliesias seems to have been studying up on some of the topics he claimed to know everything that anyone could possibly know anyway and he would tell us all the truth. He seems to be willing to change his views as facts and his knowledge of them change. That is a good thing. Let’s judge him on what he writes in the future.

  14. 14.

    WaterGirl

    @Trentrunner:

    FYI, Obama’s by Al Sharpton will air on tonight’s All In.

    There are several intriguing things in that sentence, but I’m not exactly sure what it means.

  17. 17.

    jl

    I remember reading in on of his letters that John Adams gave democracy in the US about 200 years before it was so corrupted by degenerate aristocracies and wealth that we would lose it.
    I hope that prediction is wrong.

    Adams was a rather pessimistic conservative. We don’t have any conservatives to match people like John Adams or John Marshall these days, and haven’t had any for quite a while.

  20. 20.

    hovercraft

    @inventor:
    A number of funky dates today, earlier I cited wikipedia on Beyonce’s mother, they had her birth year listed as 1765. Oops.

  22. 22.

    SiubhanDuinne

    I wish a mofo would . . .

    . . . carve “Remember the ladies!” on the opposite wall to the fireplace.

  26. 26.

    jl

    @Baud: For a long while he was spouting nonsense about the relationship between economic growth and living standards and economic and civil rights for workers in lower income countries. He has substantially changed his stance on that topic recently. Don’t know if he cracked some of those econ 101 books he used to brag about knowing, or he saw data about slowing growth in working class living standards since late 1990s (which indicates the current international trade and financial regime does not obviously promise a greater and totally excellent tomorrow for them). At any rate, a pundit who explicitly states he is changing his view on a topic due to a new understanding of recent evidence that has come to his attention (as Yglesias has) is not all that common in our media, and should be encouraged.

  27. 27.

    Libby's Person

    I drove 2 people to vote today who probably wouldn’t have gone if I and some friends hadn’t knocked on their doors and offered them a ride. And they both voted Dem all the way down the ballot, as well as the good Judge candidates! GOTV is good for relieving stress – I strongly recommend it!

  28. 28.

    Karmus

    It can be argued that there would not have been an American Revolution with John

    Rather *without* John, methinks?

  31. 31.

    jl

    @Steppan:

    ” We’re still within a standard deviation or so, right? ”
    wrt to democracy or conservatives? Wrt to conservatives, no I don’t think so. Several standard deviations worse.

  34. 34.

    Trentrunner

    I want to congratulate BJers: Everyone’s favorite hair-on-fire Brit critic “fifth-column” accuser was on TV a few days ago with his hair on fire that Trump was going to win.

    And, unless I missed a comment/thread, no one here said a word about it.

    Let’s keep it that way. Fuck him.

  35. 35.

    Kristine

    @Major Major Major Major: I saw it today. Really enjoyed it. Also bought the soundtrack. It’s my brand of trippy.

    The weekend will be spent writing, mulching leaves, and cooking. Ina Garten’s meatloaf recipe, and my made-up recipe for baked apples with a McVitie’s biscuit crumble topping.

  43. 43.

    Mike J

    Moved a hospital bed into mom’s house today. She’s having valve replacement the day after the election, complete with cracked sternum and everything. The good news is the docs decided she was healthy enough to survive it.

    So I’ve been falling down on my GOTV and even on my racing.

  46. 46.

    Mary G

    @SiubhanDuinne: I did not appreciate “Hamilton’s America” giving that line to Laura Bush. I am sure she’s nice for a Republican, but cripes. Why not give it to Michelle, who is much more like Abigail and Dolly M, who were fierce as fuck. A loaf of homemade sourdough bread fresh out of the oven is not equal to Wonder Bread.

  47. 47.

    WaterGirl

    @Trentrunner: I started recording All In on Tivo, but not until 15 minutes in. Do you know if I missed the interview or if it’s still coming up?

  49. 49.

    Roger Moore

    @Major Major Major Major:
    I’ll admit I haven’t read him much recently. When I did read him, he had a tendency to buy into fairy tale stories about how we could privatize some public goods and use the money to help the poor people who would lose access. A good example was turning carpool lanes into toll lanes and using the proceeds to fund public transit. It’s a nice sounding idea, and it might even work if our government were run by computers or incorruptible philosopher kings. But in the real world, we know that the public transit money would be diverted into something else the moment people stopped paying attention- tax cuts for the wealthy if times were good or keeping the lights on if times were bad- while the toll lanes would stay a thing for the well off forever after.

  58. 58.

    Latino J

    I’m a proud partisan Democrat who was first eligible to vote in 1992.
    Today perfectly encapsulates the past 24 years for me.

    The Republican candidate complaining about a rigged election had a restraining order put against his campaign to keep his people from trying to rig the election.

    The Republican candidate who claims the Democrat is a corrupt criminal had two members of one of his chief advisors administration convicted of conspiracy and fraud.

    The Republican candidate who claims the media is biased against him had an anchor for a news channel devoted to electing Republicans admit that he was wrong when he claimed that the Democratic candidate or her people were facing indictments.

    Bizarro world.

  60. 60.

    JGabriel

    @Major Major Major Major:

    I think contrarian bullshit was just a habit he had when he was a philosophy major in his mid-20’s, which he has since kicked.

    Agree with the since kicked, but it seemed like Matt spent the earlier part of his career auditioning for Slate. I’m guessing that once he finally got the Slate gig, he saw up close the futility of centrist contrarianism, and has since dropped the pose now that he’s at Vox – which seems to suit him much better.

  61. 61.

    Gin & Tonic

    For Hub-area folks who like beer, Garrett Oliver, brewmaster of Brooklyn Brewery, will be at Townsman restaurant downtown a week from Monday. Very special brews are promised. You have to buy tickets, and I can’t link from here, but Google and a telephone should help you.

    Oliver is the only brewer to win a James Beard award.

  64. 64.

    hovercraft

    @WaterGirl:
    I think that should be about right. If you miss the beginning, they will rerun the show at 11.

    ETA: I just checked you’re fine the interview started well after 8.15

  66. 66.

    Major Major Major Major

    @JGabriel: I stand by my analysis–I know exactly the type of person I’m describing and think he fits perfectly in the category. Well-off, vaguely econ-literate, smart but a know-it-all, mid-20s, no real quant background. Reminds me of some folks I know. He and they have grown up.

    Isn’t he one of the founders of Vox?

  71. 71.

    WaterGirl

    @David ?▶️Bad Hombres▶️? Koch: Thank you for putting up the link to the lifestream. That was awesome.

    I NEVER read comments on the internet – except here at BJ – but they were rolling comments on the page with the video. Yikes, there are a lot of people who are disconnected with reality. Still calling the President a monkey. Yikes. There’s a reason I never read that stuff.

  73. 73.

    jacy

    @Trentrunner:

    I inadvertently read his latest piece in NYMag — it made me remember all the reasons I want to punch him in the throat. Our national discourse has not been harmed by his absence. I am now going back to forgetting his existence.

  76. 76.

    hovercraft

    @WaterGirl:
    I usually close the chat window, it fills up with creatures that are not even trolls, they are scum, vile, vituperative scum. Youtube comments are not your friend at any time but on anything political, Danger Watergirl Danger.

  82. 82.

    Baud

    @Anya: Not to be shallow (moi?), but he also hasn’t aged well. I expect he has a future playing Willie Loman in Death of a Salesman at a dinner theater near you.

  84. 84.

    Baud

    @redshirt: Possibly, but if we’re doing it, so are other aggregators like Wang. Maybe Nate is proven a genius, but it’s not like the criticism is based on nothing.

  91. 91.

    Anya

    @redshirt: I don’t even look at the polls. There’s no point to freak out. I just decided I will try to do what I can instead of obsessing over polls. Nate annoys me on Twitter. He’s such a thin skinned douche who tends to lecture ppl.

  93. 93.

    JMG

    Silver could be right, but he does stand apart from the others in his field. For a really cheery little read, try a tweetstorm by economist Noah Smith in which he explains how American democracy is doomed to be at least Latin American style unstable swings between democracy and authoritarianism and at worst a state where a white minority rules a disenfranchised multi-racial majority. Too bad he’s so logical about it.
    PS: Sorry, just see that John is posting it on his twitter feed as I wrote.

  96. 96.

    JPL

    Jay Z is on CBSN… I had trouble understanding rap twenty years ago, and now it’s just sound. The crowd is happy though.

  97. 97.

    PVDMichael

    Maddow is playing extended footage from election night 1960.. with extensive explanations of data operations at NBC.

    I kind of wish she would leave this on…

  98. 98.

    WaterGirl

    Nate has forgotten about what made him great and got him all the attention in previous presidential years. He sold out when he left his original blog, and it seems to get worse each time he moves to the next place.

    If you were a great success by just looking at the numbers and ignoring all the pundits, then it’s a bad move to start adding a secret sauce and an even worse move to start behaving like you are a pundit. Nate, you are such a disappointment to me. If I weren’t so lazy, I would go looking for the comments I made years ago on Al Giordano’s website when Nate left, hoping he wouldn’t sell out but fearing the worse. Sometimes being right isn’t all it’s cracked up to be.

  99. 99.

    David ?▶️Bad Hombres▶️? Koch

    Sam Stein ‏@samsteinhp 7m7 minutes ago

    inbox: Hillary Clinton to Return to Ohio to Campaign with LeBron James Just Before Election Day

    0 replies 38 retweets 67 likes

    Actions speak louder than words. Internal polls and early vote analytics must show other states stable (crucially Florida) and Ohio on the edge of turning blue.

  104. 104.

    lamh36

    @JPL: waiting to see which GOP/RWNJ/Conserv is gonna get pissy about the “vulgar” language…

    But tots defending “grabbing the ….”

  106. 106.

    Baud

    @JPL: Not my thing, but it is nice to see.

    Someone posted a link to Louis CK endorsing Hillary. I was amazed at how positive it was.

  109. 109.

    David ?▶️Bad Hombres▶️? Koch

    Already, about 2,585,000 people have voted in North Carolina, out of about 4,574,000 we think will eventually vote. Based on the voting history and demographic characteristics of those people, we think Hillary Clinton leads in North Carolina by about 6 percentage points. We think she has an even larger lead – 9 percentage points – among people who have already voted.

    Nate Cohn — The Upshot/NYT

  111. 111.

    JPL

    @lamh36: Of course they will because they are the party of family values. The NYTimes has an article about what teenage girls think about the election. link
    I’m disgusted that Trump is within reach of the presidency.

  112. 112.

    lamh36

    Southwest looking better and better!

    @AnthonyNBCNews
    Going to NC from OH @AmericanAir pilot w/ Trump sticker on his bag blames Obama for delayed flight on announcement

  118. 118.

    lamh36

    @JPL: If at least 1/2 of these young folks come away with this willing to vote or just willing to talk amongst their friends about voting…this will have been worth it.

  120. 120.

    Steeplejack

    @Viva BrisVegas:

    I read somewhere that non-3D Imax is the way to see it.

    I usually don’t like 3D. Can think of only two or three movies where it worked for me. The best, strangely enough, was a documentary—Werner Herzog’s Cave of Forgotten Dreams, about the prehistoric cave paintings in France.

  122. 122.

    dmsilev

    @WaterGirl:

    If you were a great success by just looking at the numbers and ignoring all the pundits, then it’s a bad move to start adding a secret sauce and an even worse move to start behaving like you are a pundit

    Yeah, this. His statistical model went from being simple and straightforward to being this tottering mess with all sorts of weird things glued to the sides that has so many knobs to turn that you could make it output whatever you really wanted.

  127. 127.

    redshirt

    @Steeplejack: The most popular movie in history that everyone has completely forgotten about – Avatar – was pretty awesome in 3D. I saw it in 3D Imax with vibrating seats and it was truly an experience.

  132. 132.

    Lizzy L

    @Mike J: Sending good wishes to your mom and to you. I hope the surgery goes smoothly and that she heals quickly, with no complications.

  135. 135.

    Baud

    @Major Major Major Major: Good. So hopefully we’ll hear about NC and FL early. VA hasn’t even made the news in a while. Hard to believe that used to be a solid red state. Then I guess we wait for PA or OH. I remember in 2012 it was over when OH was called, which I think was about 11:30, but it was called before Florida, I think.

  137. 137.

    Peale

    I wonder if the strange rounding error is 1.5% who are going for a tie. Which may have a huge payout.

  139. 139.

    Anya

    Did I miss some Balloon Juice rule changes? I can’t seem to be able to post a story I found disturbing of a home-schooled child signing about Trump and genocide.

  140. 140.

    raven

    ” Officials estimate that 5 million people showed up to the Chicago Cubs parade and rally Friday, making it the 7th largest gathering in human history.”

  147. 147.

    hovercraft

    @lamh36:
    Yes but if Kid Rock and or Ted Nugent want to do a GOTV concert for Trump and they want to call her the c-word, that’s just fine, and we’re being prissy libs. Redemption stories for goper supporters are great and lauded, but I was a pimp and a dealer, and now I’m a gazzillioaire and by the way so is my hot wife, is a sign of libtard lawlessness. FFS, they need to GFTS

  148. 148.

    Ruckus

    I look forward to living up to Adams’s wish, FDR’s belief, & the promise we make to our children to leave this place better than we found it

    Perfect. Absolutely Perfect.

  150. 150.

    WaterGirl

    @Baud: YES. Your comment reminded me of something he had written recently, related to states that would be called early and what it would mean if X state is called for Hillary, for example. I will go read it again and copy an excerpt if I can find the comment I am looking for.

  152. 152.

    raven

    @Baud:

    1. Kumbh Mela pilgrimage, India, 2013 – 30 million

    2. Arbaeen festival, Iraq, 2014 – 17 million

    3. Funeral of CN Annadurai, India, 1969 – 15 million

    4. Funeral of Ayatollah Khomeini, Iran, 1989 – 10 million

    5. Papal gathering in the Philippines, 2015 – 6 million

    6. World Youth Day, 1995 – 5 million

  153. 153.

    lamh36

    @redshirt: I have not…

    Big/little secret…

    I’m not at home in NOLA right now.

    I’m in Hayward, CA.

    Decided to take a trip to the bay area for my birthday weekend (I’ll be 40 tomorrow).

    It’s both a pleasure and bussiness trip. I get to enjoy my birthday how I like it…low key, no fanfare, no big to-do…just me, myself and i, some peace and quiet and reflection.

    I’m pretty low maintenance that way.

    But I will of course be seeing it when I get back home…

  154. 154.

    redshirt

    @Baud: I hope I never forget that Karl Rove 2012 Ohio moment. I, like many others, got to see it live out because I turned to Fox news to drink their tears. It was like an open bar of Republican tears! If you’d like to relive it.

  155. 155.

    OGLiberal

    @Mike J: Not from DC but have a 9:30 t-shirt from the only show I saw there….local faves Velocity Girl. This was at the “new” 9:30 Club, which opened in ’96, same year I went there.

  160. 160.

    WaterGirl

    @Baud: Sadly, I seem to have deleted my links to issues #31 an #32, which were the two issues after the primaries ended. So I can’t see if what I am thinking of is in there.

    Issue #33 is a discussion of what the world will look like if Trump wins.

  162. 162.

    David ?▶️Bad Hombres▶️? Koch

    @dmsilev: Actually Obama does control the weather. It’s one of his super-powers.

    Have you not heard of The High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program, or HAARP,

    As Hurricane Sandy blasts the eastern seaboard just over a week before Election Day, a number of conspiracy theorists have decided President Barack Obama engineered the mega-storm to secure his re-election.

    Obama is also scheduled to appear in next X-Men movie as Storm’s husband.

  164. 164.

    JPL

    @lamh36: What I found interesting is how quickly that Delta popped up thanking their customers. In another world, this would make the news.

    Once again, CBSN is doing a great job covering the Jay Z concert. link

    They have also been covering Walter Cronkite all day

  165. 165.

    Anya

    Trump at rally in Hershey, PA: “I didn’t have to bring J-Lo or Jay Z. I am here all by myself. Just me. No guitar. No piano. No nothing”

    ‏@stevebruskCNN

    ALLLLLL BY MYSEEEEELFFFFFFFFFF. DONT WANNA BE ALLL BY MYSELFFF, ANYYYYYYMMMMMOOOORRRREEEEEEEEEEEEEE

  166. 166.

    a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q)

    I’ve got a shift observing early voting tomorrow at our only location (Board of Elections). The voting time ends at 4pm, and it will be interesting to see how many people are in line at that time. Monitoring wait time is one of the things we do, with 1/2 hour being the point at which we report the time.

    A ND OH judge enjoined

    Donald Trump’s campaign and longtime adviser Roger Stone to avoid “harassing or intimidating conduct” at polling places on Nov. 8 Election Day…
    U.S. District Judge James Gwin did not specify exactly what will or will not be allowed but said the order would likely be generic and prohibit both Democrats and Republicans from harassment of people entering and leaving polling places.
    “It wouldn’t be any attempt to particularly identify as somebody being a Trump supporter or not,” Gwin said.
    The judge also appeared unlikely to tinker with those poll observers whose names are submitted by each political party and are then approved by county boards of elections.

    Or course the campaign filed an appeal with the 6th Circuit because why wouldn’t it. Never mind that nearly all of the conduct precluded by the order is already illegal under Ohio law. The specifics of the order are at the second link.

  175. 175.

    Lizzy L

    @lamh36: Not so very far from me. Did you get to see the sunset last night? One of the good ones. I hope you have a great visit, low-key, quiet, so on — and BTW Happy Birthday.

  176. 176.

    Steeplejack (tablet)

    @Gin & Tonic:

    Their Brooklyn Lager is pretty good.

    My current everyday beer (note: “everyday,” not “every day”) is Band of Brewers’ Third Shift Amber Lager.

  178. 178.

    hovercraft

    @Anya:
    Poor baby, what Wayne Newton not available? For such a big celebrity, all those people who were on his shows and who he has partied with, and he couldn’t find anyone to come jam for him? SAD!

  181. 181.

    Matt McIrvin

    @redshirt: Sam Wang and Andrew Tanenbaum were doing this before Nate Silver was, and they’ve always been better than Silver, because they keep it simple. Tanenbaum doesn’t even try to compute probabilities; he’s just modeling what the electoral map currently looks like.

    Wang has been trying to do a November projection for the past couple of cycles, but before that, he just produced the “if the election were held today” snapshot, with the distribution of possible results calculated in a very simple way. He burned himself in 2004 with a naive unskewing maneuver based on a bad theory of undecided voters, and he resolved never to do that kind of thing again. But his “Meta-Margin” and his alternate maps adding two points in each direction help you see how the map would be different if there’s some kind of systematic effect.

    Anyway, both of them show Hillary winning this. Wang’s numbers have been sliding ever since slightly before the Comey letter broke (which makes me think it wasn’t the sole cause), but even if you assume the slide continues linearly through Tuesday, Hillary still wins with a little over 300 EV. And, personally, I think the slide has bottomed out anyway. People just need to vote and turn these polls into real numbers. Based on how Wang and Tanenbaum’s calculations did over the past few cycles, I think the collective polling miss required to get Trump to win with these numbers is unreasonably large.

    The only thing that changes that is some kind of new catastrophe developing over the next three days, and I’m sure plenty of people are going to try to make that happen. But we’re so close to the election that a lot of things might not even have time to get traction.

  183. 183.

    lamh36

    @JPL: The haters on FB are hilarious…yet they are watching the concert of course.

    I contend that all the haters of Beyonce from the CMA are the same types who lust after her physically in private and who want want she had her husband has if they could it…

    It’s that “they hate us cause they ain’t us” mentality…

  185. 185.

    p.a.

    I will second, or third, or whatever, a ++ for Dr. Strange. For me it’s usually Marvel > DC. Except huge props to the late Heath Ledger for his Joker. And Harley Quinn is the sexiest cartoon character ever. (Jessica forgive me.)

  192. 192.

    mike in dc

    Looking like the big oppo dump the NeverTrump people were suggesting was imminent isn’t coming after all. The 24 hour news stations will go into repeats at 11pm EST. Sure, there are 3 more days, and 3 news cycles per day(morning, afternoon, evening), but this was the last effective time to do it. Multiple possible reasons no bomb dropped tonight:
    1) There was nothing after all, it was just hype
    2) It involved The Apprentice outtakes, and/or NDA agreements, and they either couldn’t get the outtakes or they couldn’t convince people to break their NDAs
    3) The facts alleged in the stories couldn’t be timely verified(or ever verified) by the media who got the oppo
    4) There was a strategic decision to not release the oppo
    5) The people with the oppo don’t understand timing and just plan to dump it with no time to respond, like Monday night
    6) The campaign caught wind of the oppo and moved to suppress it effectively

    4 and 6 seem implausible to me. 5 is possible but unlikely. I think 1 is also unlikely, there probably was something actually. So the most likely explanation was that they couldn’t get the info, or they couldn’t confirm it with enough confidence to go forward with the story.
    Oh well. She’ll win anyway. It would have been nice to have a ghost of a chance to flip the House, though.

  194. 194.

    hovercraft

    Rachel just reported on some Bernie or Bust asshole in Washington State who says no matter the result he will not cast his electoral vote for Hillary. He is of course one of the 538 electors who actually elect the president. He says he thinks she is a criminal, and she doesn’t care about American Indians, he is Native American himself. WTF is wrong with these people!!!!

    ETA: The penalty for not casting your vote the way your state voted is $1000, and he says he will pay it, but will NEVER vote for her.

  196. 196.

    Helen

    Sitting in my (almost) empty apartment drinking wine out of a coffee mug. My only drinking vessel left. My friend Otto came and took all my kitchen stuff today. And on the way home from dinner in Manhattan I thought “Oh do I have a wine opener?” But yes I do. Cuz Otto is my friend. And of course he already had a wine opener. 11 days to liftoff.

  204. 204.

    hovercraft

    Sam Wang is on with Lawrence right now. Says basically no difference between 91 and 99 % probability. He’s now mathxplaining his methodology.

  207. 207.

    David ?▶️Bad Hombres▶️? Koch

    National Enquirer Shielded Donald Trump From Playboy Model’s Affair Allegation

    Tabloid owner American Media agreed to pay $150,000 for story from 1998 Playmate of the Year, but hasn’t published her account

    By Joe Palazzolo, Michael Rothfeld and Lukas I. Alpert
    Nov. 4, 2016 9:29 p.m. ET
    Wall Street Journal

    The company that owns the National Enquirer, a backer of Donald Trump, agreed to pay $150,000 to a former Playboy centerfold model for her story of an affair a decade ago with the Republican presidential nominee, but then didn’t publish it, according to documents reviewed by The Wall Street Journal and people familiar with the matter.

    ***
    Ms. McDougal, who continued modeling after appearing in Playboy, told several of her friends she had a relationship for about 10 months with Mr. Trump, beginning in 2006 and lasting into 2007, according to people familiar with her account. Another friend told the Journal that Ms. McDougal’s relationship with Mr. Trump lasted about a year.

  208. 208.

    Anya

    In 08 I seem to recal hearing that “no candidate could win the White House without Missouri,” but now CNN is saying the same thing about Ohio. Do they just change these things or is there a science to this?

  209. 209.

    hovercraft

    WASHINGTON (AP) — A Democratic elector in Washington state said Friday he won’t vote for Hillary Clinton even if she wins the popular vote in his state on Election Day, adding a degree of suspense when the Electoral College affirms the election results next month.

    Robert Satiacum, a member of Washington’s Puyallup Tribe, supported Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primary. He said he believes Clinton is a “criminal” who doesn’t care enough about American Indians and “she’s done nothing but flip back and forth.”

    He said he has wrestled with what to do, but feels that neither Clinton nor Republican Donald Trump can lead the country.

    “She will not get my vote, period,” he said in a phone interview with The Associated Press.

    Satiacum said he believes Sanders did a better job of reaching out to Native Americans. “She doesn’t care about my land or my air or my fire or my water,” he said of Clinton………

    “This is a time we all need to stand up and speak out,” he said.

    Satiacum is one of 12 Democratic electors in Washington, which Clinton is expected to win. He said he has gotten a lot of criticism since he told media outlets last month that he might not vote for Clinton. But he said he has also heard from electors in other states who thanked him for speaking out. He said he hopes some of those electors follow his lead.

    According to the National Archives, 99 percent of electors through U.S. history have voted for their party’s candidate, and none of the dissenters has ever changed the result of an election.

  213. 213.

    lamh36

    @Lizzy L: actually I was in LA last night for an overnight stay until my flight to Oakland today.

    I’ll be in Hayward today and my birthday tomorrow. I’ll be checking out on Sunday and going to a motel in San Fran until my flight on Tuesday back to NOLA

  214. 214.

    hovercraft

    @Anya:
    It’s been Ohio that I’ve heard that said about the most, I also know that no republican has won the White House without it in something like 40 years. As far as I know Missouri hasn’t been a swing state in a while, though Obama made it close

  217. 217.

    dmsilev

    @hovercraft: I read about that guy. If nothing else, where does he get the infernal arrogance to decree that his personal feelings take precedence over the votes of several hundred thousand people that he’s declaring to be irrelevant?

  219. 219.

    gf120581

    @Anya: It’s half right. No Republican has ever won the WH without winning Ohio. It’s why Karl Rove went Looney Tunes on EN in 2012 when Ohio got called for Obama; everyone knew that was the ballgame for Romney’s chances. Democrats really don’t need it, but winning it pretty much slams the door on any Republican hopes (although this year if Hillary wins any of the tossups it’s over).

    For some basic math, these are the eight top states electoral vote-wise; CA, TX, NY, FL, PA, OH, IL, and MI. Three of those (CA, NY, IL) are Democratic locks and two of them, while not quite locks, are pretty much sure things (PA, MI). The GOP can only count on one of them (TX and given the Hispanic vote, who knows how much longer). So to win, they need both of the big tossup states (OH, FL). They lose even one, it’s over.

  220. 220.

    David ?▶️Bad Hombres▶️? Koch

    Trump’s wife modeled in US prior to getting work visa

    By ALICIA A. CALDWELL, CHAD DAY and JAKE PEARSON
    34 minutes ago

    WASHINGTON (AP) — Melania Trump was paid for 10 modeling jobs in the United States worth $20,056 that occurred in the seven weeks before she had legal permission to work in the country, according to detailed accounting ledgers, contracts and related documents from 20 years ago provided to The Associated Press.

    Illegal immigrant.

    Lock her up!

  221. 221.

    Lizzy L

    @lamh36: Ah, you missed a sterling sunset. Enjoy the visit, especially the stay in SF, and the travel. Can’t believe you’re traveling on Tuesday, but the news is the news wherever you hear it.

  224. 224.

    David ?▶️Bad Hombres▶️? Koch

    JayZ: “Trump is not an evolved soul and he can not be our president” (Cleveland crowd roars).

    Gabriel Debenedetti ‏@gdebenedetti 2m2 minutes ago Cleveland, OH

    I’m not sure Hillary Clinton has ever gotten louder cheers than she just did after an intro from Jay Z and Beyonce in Cleveland

    0 replies 13 retweets 13 likes

  232. 232.

    guachi

    LOCKER HER UP!!!

    Strip her citizenship!

    Deport Melania!

    I am trying not to laugh and wake my wife up. This is too rich.

  235. 235.

    WaterGirl

    Trump hung Melania out to dry AGAIN. He had to know that stuff like this would come out when she was visible again.

    Two things:
    What a wonderful husband he is.
    I think Melania is toast shortly after the election.

  239. 239.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Anya: No science to it, it’s stupid. Ohio was the critical tipping-point state that Kerry lost back in 2004, and Obama barely won it twice, but it’s polling more Republican than the electoral-vote median now, so it’s not the great bellwether.

    According to electoral-vote.com’s “tipping-point state” list, the key is probably going to be Hillary winning either Florida, or NC, or both NH and Colorado–and she leads in at least three of them at the moment (NH is kind of questionable, though I suspect she’s going to pull through there too).

    (I’ve been hearing encouraging chatter about early voting in Nevada, but he has it in Trump’s column; that could take the place of NH.)

  240. 240.

    GregB

    @Anya:

    The Republican electoral math necessitates a win in Ohio.

    Missouri was once considered a belleweather but not any more.

  242. 242.

    WaterGirl

    @Baud: Melania is toast? I think their marriage is over. If he loses, and her surely must, I think he will blame her. She will be gone in a heartbeat, unless he decides to wait a bit for appearances sake.

    Think I’m wrong?

  243. 243.

    gf120581

    @Matt McIrvin: NV appears to be locked in for Hillary per Jon Ralston. Clark County is headed for record turnout today and Hillary looks like she’ll have as big a firewall there if not larger than Obama’s in 2012.

    Feel free to ignore polling on NV. They always seem to get it wrong, especially when it comes to Democratic support (partly due to underestimating Hispanic voters, partly because NV’s just a difficult state to poll).

  247. 247.

    Frankensteinbeck

    @WaterGirl:
    Christ. I didn’t think about that. She may not be a great person, but now I’m worried for her. Trump has clearly shown that when he feels weak, he hurts the nearest thing that can’t fight back, and particularly targets women.

  252. 252.

    lamh36

    @WaterGirl: right…didn’t the rape that was alleged to have happened to Ivana during her marriage to Trump when he had some sort of issue with hair loss or something?

  253. 253.

    WaterGirl

    @lamh36: yep.

    edit: i think she made a deal with the devil in her marriage to trump, but no one deserves to be beaten or raped.

  255. 255.

    Peale

    @David ?▶️Bad Hombres▶️? Koch: well technically she came here as a tourist and worked illegal. So maybe that counts. Trump only cares about people who don’t pass through border control at the airport. Lying about why you’re here might not be an issue, as long as you’re not one of those lying Muslim refugees, who are totes living high on the hog on the UN dime but plead poverty so they can come here and plant bombs.

  257. 257.

    Mike in NC

    Seems like nobody cares about Trump’s ex-prostitute Slovenian illegal immigrant trophy wife.

  258. 258.

    Steeplejack

    @Major Major Major Major:

    I think for me it was the accumulation of several links to here—probably Cole political rants. I came here to read those, started browsing the comments and was pleasantly surprised to find an almost complete absence of the pure crap in a lot of other blogs’ comment sections. And then I noticed the blog content was not just politics. I started checking in here every day, and quite soon Balloon Juice was my home on the Web.

  265. 265.

    James E Powell

    @Steeplejack: @Steeplejack:

    It always cracks me up that so many rappers’ real names are like Dana, Tracey, Sean, etc.

    Like Christopher Wallace, which is not that far from John Smith

    My favorite though is Cordozar Calvin Broadus, Jr.

  266. 266.

    OGLiberal

    @redshirt: Yup, so old I saw Ice T perform with Body Count twice, once at the first Lollapalooza and once in NYC. NYC show was at the now defunct Ritz (formerly Studio 54) and it was great, first half was rap, second half was Body Count.

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