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The Giant Orange Man Baby is having a bad day.

If a good thing happens for a bad reason, it’s still a good thing.

Fight for a just cause, love your fellow man, live a good life.

The gop is a fucking disgrace.

… gradually, and then suddenly.

DeSantis transforming Florida into 1930s Germany with gators and theme parks.

The fight for our country is always worth it. ~Kamala Harris

A sufficient plurality of insane, greedy people can tank any democratic system ever devised, apparently.

I like political parties that aren’t owned by foreign adversaries.

This isn’t Democrats spending madly. This is government catching up.

Dear Washington Post, you are the darkness now.

America is going up in flames. The NYTimes fawns over MAGA celebrities. No longer a real newspaper.

Everybody saw this coming.

“Can i answer the question? No you can not!”

When I decide to be condescending, you won’t have to dream up a fantasy about it.

“When somebody takes the time to draw up a playbook, they’re gonna use it.”

Putting aside our relentless self-interest because the moral imperative is crystal clear.

They love authoritarianism, but only when they get to be the authoritarians.

And now I have baud making fun of me. this day can’t get worse.

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

One of our two political parties is a cult whose leader admires Vladimir Putin.

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Giving in to doom is how we fail to fight for ourselves & one another.

You are here: Home / Politics / Domestic Politics / Late Evening Report From the Electoral Field: The Bella Q Files!

Late Evening Report From the Electoral Field: The Bella Q Files!

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The Ohio election system is made up of two (or more) separate yet equal parts. The people that cast the votes and the lawyers, like commenter Bella Q, who observe them. This is Bella Q’s story… (donk donk)

Earlier today commenter Bella Q did a stint as a (legal) observer in OH, here’s her report from the field.

I had a Saturday 12-4 shift as an observer at my OH county’s Board of Election – the only early vote location – and voters were in remarkably good cheer, even when the line was an hour and a half. Many brought children with them, nearly all of whom were impressively well-behaved.  They seemed interested to be on the outing while staying close by the parent(s) and being very still and quiet.  In the 5 hours I was there, I heard perhaps 3 children out of many dozen making fussy noises.

There were several combinations of parent(s) and new teenaged voters, as well as a number of other self-identified 1st time voters, many of whom appeared to be naturalized citizens based on their audible accents. That was at the end of a counter of 11 check in stations where I was sitting.  All the poll workers – most of whom are regular Board staff were consistently and sincerely pleasant with voters, which was clearly critical to keeping the atmosphere pleasant to just short of festive.

A taco truck with a sign: Guac the Vote was handing out tacos to voters. There was a table next to it with coffee and candy in the morning, water and candy in the afternoon, and pizza in the late afternoon. They had music playing as well.  The progressive group organizing those booked a chili truck for tomorrow; I know this because I was chatting with a woman staffing that event as those arrangements were being made. They were meticulous about not mentioning candidates or causes because they were within the distance at which electioneering is prohibited.

Biscuit the taco dog came over from Indy to protest against Trump; she posed patiently for many photos. Her handler was asked to keep her across the street from the voting line, but he reported that the request was polite, and he didn’t know about distance requirements and immediately complied.

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1767 people voted during the 12-4 period, with the last voter at about 5:10 pm.  There was nothing to observe, since it was Board staff; essentially I was there to report the line lengths/wait times and the vote total to the Regional Voter Protection Director.  And interesting statement dogs.  Had there been any incident(s), that report would have been relayed as well.  I was struck by how efficiently voters were accommodated through the process as well as how pleasant they all seemed even when they’d had a lengthy wait.

Reader Interactions

205Comments

  3. 3.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Adam L Silverman: people are oddly emotional about electoral models

    also, Trump aides/supporters are encouraging rumors that their boy just survived an assassination attempt

    Marc Ambinder @ marcambinder
    A Homeland Security official confirms the @ABC report: no gun found, crowd panicked as a guy tried to raise a sign; someone shouted “gun.”

  5. 5.

    Ruckus

    That is much better than my last vote in OH, in Nov 2004. Of course it was raining and the line was mostly outside the small church, which had 2 machines. I waited 2 hrs to get to the desk and the big book but wasn’t leaving until I was done voting. And I didn’t see any one else leaving either. There rumors that Ken Blackwell had screwed with the election by only placing a limited number of machines in the democratic areas. On a very anecdotal note, I’d say that was true.

  8. 8.

    japa21

    Found out today that one of the election judges on my team resigned and the county didn’t inform me, even though they replaced her. As the person responsible for making sure everybody shows up Monday to set everything up and then on Tuesday at 5 AM (groan) I was a little peeved.

    But got in touch with the replacement and everything is copacetic. There are 1,110 registered voters in the precinct so, since we also have same day registration (fought against by the GOP) they are giving us some extra equipment so as not to slow things down.

  10. 10.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: I’ve seen it. Exactly what I thought. Had there been a gun the Secret Service would have locked the place down because there’d been a major security breach. Everyone would be held in place by law enforcement, and each and every person there would be waiting their turn to be interrogated. Trump would not have been allowed back out.

    What’s interesting is that given where this was and who the crowd was, the vast majority of whom are likely gun folks – hunters, sports shooters, every day carriers, 2nd Amendment absolutists. Realizing that the lighting isn’t necessarily going to be perfect, they not only misidentified a poster for a firearm, but they also freaked out about. So much for the idea of gun normalization.

    That aside, the assassination BS is just silly. And they’re going to be made fun of as a result.

  12. 12.

    jenn

    Taco Dog is adorabiggle.

    Well, that’s a crazy happening in Nevada. I’m imagining a gleeful Deplorable, there to cheer Trump on, starting to raise a sign … and then his world changes in a hurry.

    Imagining playing with the Taco Dog is much more fun, though.

  13. 13.

    hovercraft

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:
    That supplements the legend of Trump, this is the second assassination attempt he has survived, the first was from ISIS, so he is obviously the person they fear the most. Twice they have tried to stop him, and he will not be stopped. Every patriot must stand up and fight for him, vote for him, do not let them take away their freedom.

  16. 16.

    Schlemazel

    @Adam L Silverman:
    It is beyond stupid. Wed they will know who has the superior kung-fu. Why start a fight that could make you look like a moron in 4 days? If you are right you still look like a whiner.

  18. 18.

    JMG

    Actually, on the Occam’s Razor principle, I’d say Nate has the better of the argument. There aren’t ANY 99 percent sure things on earth. But Silver is feeling the heat because he’s been getting personal criticism from some of his old Dkos buddies and of course that hurts. It’s kind of like what happened to the Supremes. I do think Nate is closer to the right answer than Wang, but we’ll never know. Giving an upset a 35 percent chance and a 1 percent chance means you were still wrong if it happens, and right if it doesn’t.

  20. 20.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Schlemazel: Its either we alone are right and everyone else in the top tier of doing this are wrong, which is possible, but not probable. But I really don’t think, just because you’re a stats nerd that you want to pick a fight that uses stats, and other forms of mathematics, for a living in ways you’ve never thought of.

  21. 21.

    debbie

    Nice! Reports about early voting in Franklin County are similarly positive, and people have been surprised at how the process is so smooth. I cannot help but think Husted still has something up his sleeve.

  31. 31.

    Schlemazel

    @Adam L Silverman:
    well the X-tyX chance of winning is stupid beyond belief as it is untestable. The percentage by state is easily demonstrated by noon on Wednesday the 9th so why fight. Crow if you are right, review your work if you are not. Egos can be useful but a man should know how to control his own.

  32. 32.

    EBT

    @JMG: don’t forget silver is still super sensitive about being wrong about the GoP primary, combined with no one will buy his sportsball numbers if he keeps goofing hard so he freaked out and thumbed the scale when he couldn’t figure out why he was wrong. Now he can’t back down and he sure isn’t actually right.

  35. 35.

    redshirt

    Who has better hair: Wang or Silver?

    I don’t know what Wang looks like, but it has to be better than that monstrosity atop Silver’s head.

  36. 36.

    debbie

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    I too waited about two hours outside a union hall. I think it was a citywide thing. I remember reports that there was only one voting machine at the polling place for OSU students.

  37. 37.

    Adam L Silverman

    I’m watching some of the clips from the Katy Perry for Hillary Clinton concert in Philadelphia. This may be the most clothing Katy Perry has ever worn on stage at a concert.

  44. 44.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Baud: She’s taken the coat/blouse with storm cape off and is now in the sleeveless American flag top and blue leather pants.

  45. 45.

    Origuy

    I mentioned this morning that I was at the Santa Clara (CA) County Registrar of Voters office for early voting. It started at 9 and I got there at 10:40. Things were pretty organized; they gave you a number and a form for your name and address. If you had your sample ballot, you didn’t need the form. When your name was called you showed your sample or form. Then you waited while they prepared your ballot. I don’t know if they printed them on demand or had a supply for each precinct. There are county and city propositions and school board elections, so there are a lot of different ballots. They called your name handed you the ballot. Filling out the eight pages of the ballot took a while. I was there about 40 minutes.
    Kind of a party atmosphere. People were chatting with each other and a lot of folks had their kids. They had an inflatable Uncle Sam you could take selfies with.
    ETA. Thanks to NotMax’s link a while back I’m still listening to zampogna tunes on YouTube.

  54. 54.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Peale: Paige Lavender ‏@ paigelav 16m16 minutes ago
    Trump said it’s “almost like cheating” for Clinton to campaign with celebs like Bey, Jay (Fact check: it’s not)
    I’m always skeptical of the utility of these celebrity appearances, but if Trump’s whining, maybe there’s more to it than I thought

  61. 61.

    WaterGirl

    @ Adam up top

    Oh, and since no one else seems to have mentioned it, I enjoyed the Law & Order intro to the thread.

  65. 65.

    redshirt

    @hovercraft: I’m supposed to trust a man’s polling aggregates that can’t figure out he’s obviously going bald? And tries for some hybrid comb over/not comb over?

    No thanks. Make mine Wang.

  66. 66.

    Hal

    Ok, so from Facebook today I have learned that Trump survived an assassination attempt, Bill and Hillary are trafficking children, and Obama filmed a YouTube video with actress Gina Rodriguez in which he encouraged “illegals” to vote.

    The last one seems to be making it’s rounds, so if you’re interested, check out at the 3:31 mark.

    Yay conspiracy theories!

  71. 71.

    Adam L Silverman

    @WaterGirl: Petticoat was the wrong word. Sorry, I’ll go back and amend that. I can’t find a picture. It was this huge, blue coat type blouse with a cape and skirts on the sides and back, open in the front as she was wearing matching blue leather pants. Underneath it she was wearing the sleeveless flag shirt.

  77. 77.

    Lyrebird

    @redshirt: Maybe if Nate Silver moved Down East he could just wear a hat all the time instead?

    Just kidding… As I said the other night on that All About Beards thread, I try not to tell other people how to do their hair, but having Googled Mr. Silver, I see what you mean. I have seen a more strange-looking comb-over, though — very poofy, combed up from all sides… I only noticed bc I saw the hairdo from above while riding the subway, and I assumed it was a woman who had put so much work into the strange hair-mushroom ‘do, but her face was so incongruous… only realized the person was a man when he stood up to get off the train.

    And of course I fully support any man, woman, or person sick of those categories to style their hair as they wish! I just was glad my (hairline-receded) dad could explain to me why this otherwise ultra-conformatively dressed person would contort his hair that way.

  81. 81.

    hovercraft

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:
    The Jay-z and Bey concert event was across the street from the Board of Elections, and to attend you just happened to have to go into the building to collect the tickets, and they reminded you that there was a handy early voting place right there. That is what they’ve been doing with all of their get out the vote events. So having celebrities draw in the crowd, and then having them plug your candidate to their supporters can’t do anything but help. If it has the added benefit of tweaking your opponent, even better. He had to fly all around the country because he has no surrogates, oh I’m sorry he does, his kids, Pence and Rudy, did you see any coverage of any of their events? No I didn’t think so. She got a lot more coverage than him the last couple of days because of who she is stumping with, and who the people out there stumping for her are. Remember the purpose of the events is to get local coverage, and she gets a lot more in a lot of different places every day because she has bigger surrogates.

  83. 83.

    hovercraft

    @Adam L Silverman:
    I called that last night, I wonder if he’ll be commenting on his potty mouth, like he did about Jay-z at the concert last night. Or is the fact that he called Hillary the c-word not pertinent.

  85. 85.

    Adam L Silverman

    @WaterGirl: Yeah, she had this big jacket/blouse thing. Long sleeves, same color blue as the pants, but not leather. Full cape on it. High collar, lots of pleats and skirts – long on the sides and back, very short on the front because she was wearing the leather pants. My guess is that, despite being in Pennsylvania, she decided that dressing up as a pair of Hershey Kisses was not an appropriate choice for tonight.
    http://www.aceshowbiz.com/images/wennpic/katy-perry-performing-at-the-o2-arena-14.jpg

  87. 87.

    a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q)

    @satby: Many people are doing lots more, but I got to have tacos (and candy and pizza) and see a protest dog.
    @Adam L Silverman: I want to emphasize that I really only wanted to see pictures of Biscuit the Taco Protest Dog posted.

  91. 91.

    Frankensteinbeck

    @EBT:
    Nate should be sensitive. He jumped the god damn shark with Trump in the primaries. The polls had Trump clearly leading. There was a reasonable doubt Trump could turn those numbers into votes because of organizational defects, but that was only an unanswered question, not an actual reason Trump wouldn’t win. Nate went all in on ‘No, Trump is just too weird, trust me, this is an illusion.’ He didn’t listen to his numbers, and failed exactly like the people who he made a fool of for not listening to the numbers failed.

  92. 92.

    hovercraft

    The Des Moines Register poll has Hillary trailing overall by 7, and by 5 points among millennials. Can someone please explain that while millennials are more liberal, the race distinctions are still there, white millennials I believe voted for Romney, or were split 50/50. I assume that given that Iowa is very white they are too? Not that this explains what the hell is going on in Iowa as a whole, Obama won it easily twice. WTF Iowa. I remember back in 2007, Obama and Michelle basically camped out in the state, and he was also a familiar figure because he was from a neighboring state, so he had an edge. I don’t get it.

  94. 94.

    Joel

    @JMG: That’s not really true.

    The occam’s razor explanation would be to go back to their respective models’ tally of predictions, evaluate how accurate they were and see whether their precision correctly accounts for how right/wrong they were. In other words, did their expected error match their actual error?

    BUT… this only works if they never change their model, which guess what, they do! Silver especially, but Wang has tweaked how he regresses his prediction.

    Where Silver is really hurting is that he kept insisting Trump wouldn’t win during the primaries — using a pundit’s view as opposed to the data. Wang was pretty adamant that Trump’s lead in the polls would translate into his nomination, and here we are.

  99. 99.

    PatrickG

    @WaterGirl:

    Others have recommended Wang’s feed, but Silver’s is … illustrative:

    Nate SilverVerified account
    ‏@NateSilver538
    That’s what makes a model a useful scientific & journalistic tool. It’s a way to understand how elections work. Not just about the results.

    He’s not wrong. Models are a great scientific tool*! You use them to test assumptions, vary parameters to see impact, and all that. But the model is only good insofar as its validated against results. If your model doesn’t accurately predict results, it’s useless.

    With that in mind, Silver’s model results could be deeply interesting. For example, consider the following scenarios:
    * Assume the electorate does not have a Latina/o population
    * Assuming black turnout actually is lower nationwide
    * Assume voter suppression efforts are effective, and suppress particular populations
    * Assume all voters are spherical cows

    You’d get some very interesting results about how elections in America would like like under those assumptions. Especially that last one! But what you would not have is predictive power. You’ve made assumptions or varied parameters, and are curious if that has predictive power when compared to actual results.

    Silver is marketing his model as predictive, but there he is on Twitter admitting quite the opposite. Sad!

    ETA: TL;DR: Silver’s electoral map model is absolutely just about the results. He knows this, and he’s trying to deflect.

    * Not sure about the journalistic side so much.

  100. 100.

    a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q)

    @Adam L Silverman: Nah; I just wanted people to know it wasn’t an instance of “read what I did that was good!” as opposed to “I saw a cool dog next to a free taco truck in the course of participating in democracy.”

  101. 101.

    Steve in the ATL

    Dawgs win! And cover the spread! Why no Georgia thread tonight?

    ETA: Georgia wins, Tech loses–that’s a good Saturday. Wake up Raven; I need back up here.

  107. 107.

    Adam L Silverman

    @WaterGirl: I may try to go back to it at some point. I got about four episodes into 2 and just couldn’t bring myself to watch the rest.

  108. 108.

    RobertB

    @debbie: We kicked this around a little bit yesterday. My polling place out in western Franklin Co. is probably 65/35 Rep/Dem, and had eight voting machines. I’ve never had to wait for more than 15 minutes at my polling place.

  113. 113.

    divF

    I would like to recommend a truly righteous rant from a African-American woman just posted over at the top of the front page at LGM. I won’t try to quote it, just read it.

  118. 118.

    CaseyL

    Can someone explain to me why the high EV numbers have our team so optimistic? People who don’t early vote will presumably vote not-early, on election day. Same number of people, just a difference in the time distribution.

    I can understand the excitement if people who are early voting are people who haven’t been caught by any polling (because they’re infrequent voters, say) and therefore may be seen as additional votes for Hillary.

    But otherwise… if they aren’t additional voters, I’m not sure what the excitement is all about.

  122. 122.

    a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q)

    @Adam L Silverman: My nefarious plan worked! I just wanted people to know I wasn’t trying to lean on you to let me boast. Preemptive defensiveness. ETA: Or what Omnes observed…

    @Omnes Omnibus: I hope there’s a taco truck for voters there too. I expect it’s too long a trip for Biscuit, but I admit I did not get her schedule.

  123. 123.

    Ohio Mom

    I was in downtown Cincinnati at the Board of Elections today from about 1:30 to 3:00 and can vouch for everything Bella Q said. I waited for almost two hours with one of my oldest friends and we had a gas. I did not know waiting on line could be so much fun. Everyone was happy, excited and chatty, and the toddlers were indeed incredibly well-behaved. They clearly picked up on the vibes of the adults’ great moods.

    The tacos were delicious, as were the cupcakes and the homemade vegetable soup (the soup lady was behind the building, at the start of the line). The Board workers were incredibly warm, welcoming and efficient. My only complaint was that 11 check-in stations are not enough. I hear that at least a half-dozen churches are showing up tomorrow. That will be a crowd.

    Then I came home to plumbing problems and a flooded basement, just in keeping with everything else of the last six months around here. But life was glorious for a few hours this afternoon.

  124. 124.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @CaseyL: I can understand the excitement if people who are early voting are people who haven’t been caught by any polling (because they’re infrequent voters, say) and therefore may be seen as additional votes for Hillary.

    I do think that’s the case in FL and NV, where newly registered Hispanic voters are turning out in record number, much greater than most polling screens and models suggested. Now people are saying the same situation looks to be coming to pass in AZ. There’s still some degree of tea-leaf reading in all this, I gather.

  126. 126.

    Peale

    @hovercraft: maybe, like a lot of white Americans, they’re convinced that you can rip up trade agreements any time you want to get more favorable ones. Ergo: we can just force Mexico to continue to buy corn and soybeans at prices we set (the hell with commodities prices) and refuse to take their products if we don’t want to. Kind of like Brexit voters who find it hard to believe that the EU isn’t an ala carte menu.

  127. 127.

    randy khan

    @CaseyL:

    First, in a population of, oh, 1,000 people who really plan to vote on election day, maybe 5 or 10 won’t vote because something happens – car accidents (their cars or other peoples’ cars that block traffic), sick children, unexpected need to work overtime, etc. Someone who votes early is not affected by such things. It’s not necessarily a big difference in the total vote, but it’s a difference.

    Second, getting more people to vote early allows you to have more focused GOTV on Election Day, which might gain you another percent (or more) in turnout from your potential voters.

    I suspect there may be other reasons as well.

  130. 130.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @CaseyL: here’s some numbers

    In Florida, at least 200,000 more Hispanics had voted early as of Friday than did during the entire early voting period four years ago, according to an analysis by Steve Schale, a Democratic strategist who helped run President Obama’s two campaigns here.
    The turnout has been particularly explosive in South Florida and Central Florida, where thousands from Puerto Rico and other regions of Latin America have migrated in recent years. And 24 percent of the Hispanics casting early ballots were first-time voters, the analysis showed.

  131. 131.

    a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q)

    @Ohio Mom: I hate to hear bout your discovery upon return – that’s a drag.

    The BoE space/equipment can only comfortably accommodate the 11stations, they believe. Tim told me the new Norwood space will have room for more stations. As I was walking out the front at 6, 2 different me pulled up and asked if it was closed. I told them 1-5 tomorrow and that they should be prepared for a long line, especially since the hours were shorter – but I forgot to factor in churches.

    Did you get to see Aftab when you were there? He is hot! I told him I’d been talking him up despite my long friendship with his opponent’s husband and BIL and that I hoped my years in that system gave me credibility as a supporter. He seemed genuinely appreciative. I can tell the story of my text to Mr. Q re: that if anyone is interested.

  133. 133.

    Lizzy L

    Had an interesting conversation today with a friend. She thinks Trump is a horror, but she believes that Hillary is a criminal. She has no respect for Johnson or Stein. She feels utterly lost: there’s no candidate she trusts or likes. I could only sympathize: damned if I know what I would do in her position. She feels that voting is the responsibility of every citizen, and admits she may not vote, for President anyway.

  134. 134.

    MisterForkbeard

    @Doug R: Right. It’s also a good measure of voter enthusiasm.

    @Lizzy L: The sad thing is, if she’s smart enough to know voting is a responsibility, you’d think she’d have done enough research to know Hillary isn’t a criminal.

  138. 138.

    a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q)

    @TS: Trumps such an asshole he can’t tell that POTUS is yelling at the crowd to stop booing and projects that he’s yelling at the protester – that’s what Trump would do. Never mind the announcement of reasons why he wanted them to shut up, because reasons. Actually, of course because Trump doesn’t believe any of that silly shit; it’s his way or the highway.

  139. 139.

    CaseyL

    Thanks for the explanations, everyone! I need all the good news I can get about this election, but don’t want to be buoyed by wishful thinking.

  143. 143.

    Joel

    @CaseyL: putting aside the obvious bird in hand / two in bush analogies which you are undoubtably being inundated with there’s another layer to consider

    while you can’t see *how* people voted, you can most definitely check on *who* voted. that’s important because you also know how they are registered and whether they have voted in past elections.

    what do you do with this data?

    you can project the likely election turnout based on ev totals and population growth compared to past elections. in some cases we are looking at maybe 70% of the electorate having voted *before* election day (in Florida, for example).

    because you know *who* voted and *how many* you have a pretty strong idea where your candidate stands before election day even kicks off. and you can basically game out the election day scenarios to see how your candidate fared.

    ok so that’s great, but here’s another thing you can do with this data. you can determine how many of the infrequently voting members of your party are turning out. and that’s where the races are won; turning out your base. so if you start noticing a lot of voters who didn’t show up in 2014 (or even 2012) you are in very good shape.

  144. 144.

    West of the Rockies (been a while)

    I haven’t heard a peep from Joe The (Not) Plumber this election. He away serving a few years for forged checks or drunk in public or something? Granny Palin has also,too been kinda quiet lately. Their sell-by dates finally come up?

  145. 145.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    This is fucking unbelievable!
    The PRIEST lies and says Reno was an “attempt at murder” on Trump and BLAMES MEDIA
    Eddie Vale @ evale72
    VIDEO: priest at Trump event says the media’s hate caused attempt of murder against Trump

  146. 146.

    TS

    @a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q):

    Trumps such an asshole he can’t tell that POTUS is yelling at the crowd to stop booing and projects that he’s yelling at the protester

    That’s what he wants his supporters to believe, whether he believes it or not, plus it is also what his staff tell him – I don’t think any of his staff tell him any truths – either because they were born in the same bull rushes or because they want to get paid tomorrow.

  149. 149.

    Lurker Extraordinaire

    As I mentioned before, I voted here in Ohio on Friday with my four year old in tow. I explained to her before we got there that she couldn’t say anything about who mommy was voting for. She didn’t quite get why (how to explain electioneering to a Pre-K’er?), so I just told her she had to be very quiet.

    The fruit snacks I gave her helped. ;-)

  150. 150.

    Lizzy L

    @MisterForkbeard:
    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:
    My friend’s SO knew one of the people who was killed in Benghazi. My friend believes (I think because her SO believes it) that Hillary is responsible for that death. She also believes the bullshit that the Clintons used the Clinton Foundation as a “slush fund” to enrich themselves.

  151. 151.

    Peale

    @PPCLI: which I believe was totally not a change in policy. If the people are in line before the polling place closes, the polling place stays open. Now latecomers who showed up at ten would probably be sol. Still, while it is a good story, I still want to know why in certain places, we end up with 1,000 person queues and hours long waits. I’m pretty sure that a candidate would run on solving that problem and get a lot of support in those districts s with long lines.

  153. 153.

    Lurker Extraordinaire

    @Adam L Silverman: Yesterday a Trump rally was held where my husband works. He said the Secret Service came in the day before and removed heavy tables, drill bits, and……sand paper (?!?!). Also said that they couldn’t do any work for the first three hours of the shift, which he didn’t mind because he still got paid. He also observed some of the rally and said the attendees were “sheep.” Cheering about the wall and blah blah blah. I was a bit worried because my husband is Puerto Rican/Mexican, and I didn’t want anyone to start any shit with him. Of course whoever did would have been on the worse end of it, but still…

  154. 154.

    Lizzy L

    @PPCLI: “a certain group…” Fuck that noise. Racist bastard. All that matters is, they’re citizens, and it’s their right.
    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: I gotta hope that after the election, that priest’s bishop (or his superior, if he’s in a religious order as opposed to being a diocesan priest, will have Something To Say to him. Jerk.

  157. 157.

    Ohio Mom

    @a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q): As far as local celebrities go, I only saw David and Betsy Mann today. But I did see Aftab at a candidates’ night sponsored by DDS (the agency formerly known as MR/DD) and he is indeed very charismatic.
    Thanks for your sympathy re: my basement. In recent months, my little family has had the sort of series of one thing after another that makes me wonder if a hex hasn’t been put on us — else I would have taken up your offer to help out on your friend’s campaign.

    Dreamland beckons — night all!

  158. 158.

    James E Powell

    Just saw my first Trump TV ad. The Clintons are apparently criminals who got all their money by accepting donations from countries that hate America and selling our uranium to the Russians. Truly they are awful.

    I saw this ad while watching the Washington @ Cal football game on ABC-TV. Do you think that was a national ad or did Trump really spend money on TV ads in Los Angeles?

  159. 159.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    Dave Weigel ‏@ daveweigel 17m17 minutes ago
    By tomorrow morning the story will be that a werewolf charged Trump and he decapitated him with Excalibur.

    Donnie Trump JR (anybody see the Facebook post by the guy from his college dorm? Diaper Donnie?) is retweeting people talking about the “assassination attempt”

  160. 160.

    Peale

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: someone mentioned joe the Plummer and snowball Snooki up above…so speaking of noisy folks we haven’t heard from much this cycle, where have the bishops been? I haven’t heard much from them. Shouldn’t they be threatening to withhold mass on Democrats and getting their photo taken with Trump this cycle?

  161. 161.

    PPCLI

    @Peale: It absolutely was the policy — if you were in line, or in the polling place at the precise closing hour, the polls would stay open until you can vote. The GOP chair surely knows that. But forget it, Jake. It’s Trumptown.

  162. 162.

    Latino J

    The big issue people are taking with Silver seems to be how much he’s adjusting the numbers.
    Florida is a good example –
    14 of the top 20 polls in Florida on 538 have Clinton leading. 6 have Trump leading.
    But after Nate adjusts the numbers, Hillary is only leading in 10 polls, Trump is now leading in 8, and they are tied in 2.
    On top of that, Nate then takes the average of all the adjusted polls (which still favors Clinton 45.8% to 44.1%) and adds a 2.0% trend line adjustment among further calculations to the Trump number. So, after changing a disproportionate amount of polls to favor Trump, then giving Trump and extra 2 points, Nate comes to the conclusion that Hillary only has a 47.7% chance of winning Florida and that the projected voter share is Trump 48.2% and HRC 47.9%.

    So yeah, Nate has a ton of people scratching their heads. He’s adding 1 to 2 points trendline adjustment to Trump’s average in every battleground state and that’s after rewriting the individual polls to some new number he likes better (not always to Trumps favor in this case). That’s why people are accusing him of injecting punditry into his formula. I think he’s trying to quantify the unquantifiable and might have bit off more he can chew. Or he figured out the formula to the chaos of elections and deserves the Noble prize. We’ll see.

  163. 163.

    Adam L Silverman

    @sukabi: Actually Jr. and Scavino, one of the spokespersons, retweeted someone else claiming it was an assassination. That was then doubled down on by the clergy who did the invocation at the Denver event. The guy who sang the National Anthem in Denver also went off the rails referring to Clinton as Killary. Its like the entire campaign is decompensating.

  164. 164.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Joel: And that’s been the case with the Hispanic early voters in Florida. A large percentage of them, over 1/2 if I’m recalling correctly, were considered unlikely voters until the past few days when they did actually vote.

  166. 166.

    Major Major Major Major

    @Latino J: There was an absolutely dreadful piece in HuffPo today accusing Silver of intentionally doing this to make it look like Trump was winning which, in addition to being inflammatory, got a bunch of basic facts about how statistics work wrong. So this is all a bunch of brouhaha around that. The HuffPo piece started it, and a bunch of people like Wang who have maintained professional decorum & respectful silence around Nate’s downward spiral ended up jumping into the fray and talking about stats.

    Nate’s model sucks, but let’s please use some Hanlon’s Razor here.

  168. 168.

    hovercraft

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:
    Sadly too many of the Bishops and Cardinals are pro GOP, because of the abortion and gay marriage issues. Out in Nevada though I assume a huge portion of the congregants are Latino, so maybe the immigration issue looms larger, the church has been on the right side of this.
    @Lizzy L:
    For some people ‘belief’ cannot be changed by facts, so this person will not be swayed by reality. Confirmation bias is real, so proof only pushes them further down the rabbit hole.

  169. 169.

    Lizzy L

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: It wouldn’t help.
    @Omnes Omnibus: I know. But since my friend’s position is not based on knowledge of the facts but rather on her emotional loyalty to her significant other, I’m not going to try and present a factual argument. At this point, she’s not voting for Trump.

  170. 170.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Lurker Extraordinaire: The Secret Service are not messing around with this stuff. In order for a gun, or other weapon (other than improvising one from the poster sticks – though honestly, I’m amazed they actually allow that within 33 feet one could kill someone with one of those before someone can bring their weapon to bear on the attacker), to get into a Secret Service secured venue would require a tremendously catastrophic breakdown in security.

  172. 172.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    Glenn Thrush ‏@ GlennThrush 33m33 minutes ago
    My mentions right now: Hillary ordered an assassination attempt by a gun-wielding Democrat in Reno goaded on by the MSM. Really.

  174. 174.

    cthulhu

    @CaseyL:

    Can someone explain to me why the high EV numbers have our team so optimistic? People who don’t early vote will presumably vote not-early, on election day. Same number of people, just a difference in the time distribution.

    So I’m currently in NV, a major EV state, and have worked here in 2008 and 2010. The early vote has key practical considerations (and increasingly as the information on early voters is more available) in the sense that, once people have voted you can stop focusing your GOTV on them (especially as the voter rolls are updated in semi-real time, e.g., Person X is on record as having already voted). The more EV, the more you can focus on the harder “gets.” In 2010, I spent the entirety of election day driving voters with transportation issues to the polls, terribly inefficient unless you have already gotten the all the “easy” votes.

    So this year it looks in NV it looks like at least 2/3rds of the electorate has already voted, maybe more. EV ended last night and today, Sunday and Monday is about setting up the remainder for Tuesday then having a very aggressive and efficient effort on the 8th.

    Generally Dems do better when more people vote. EV and other methods of making voting easier are to our advantage while at the same time being supportive of democracy.

  175. 175.

    Frankensteinbeck

    @hovercraft:

    Sadly too many of the Bishops and Cardinals are pro GOP, because of the abortion and gay marriage issues.

    And as near as I can tell, because they’re meaner than shit and have race issues as well. It’s not just that they hate gays. They really loathe Francis’s ‘help the poor’ message.

  182. 182.

    Peale

    @Omnes Omnibus: I guess you could use it to make something into a shank. Or scrub down some drywall to create a mysterious white powder to disrupt the event, or as cover for your anthrax stash.

  183. 183.

    hovercraft

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:
    FFS, who but the most rabid trumpster is going to believe this, no real media outlet will run this bullshit. Yes I know it will be all over the Twitterverse and facebook, but those people are already all in.

  184. 184.

    cckids

    @Lizzy L:

    “a certain group…” Fuck that noise. Racist bastard. All that matters is, they’re citizens, and it’s their right.

    Not to mention, in early voting, you can go to whatever location is open that day and vote; it doesn’t have to be in your precinct or anything. So the grousers could have gone and joined in the “late” voting, if they wanted to. Honestly, they are like ill-behaved toddlers.

  185. 185.

    seaboogie

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    @Adam L Silverman: You mention this and provide no links? Were you raised by rabid hyenas?

    Assume you fellers have seen the Katy Perry naked voting vid on Funny or Die…I’d link it, but it’s glitchy on my computer just now.

    Anyway – I am off to do my part (after early voting in CA) to stave off endtimes and the four horsemen of the apocalypse by doing some phonebanking tomorrow and Monday. Prolly going to re-watch this sweet Clinton/Katy Perry campaign vid before I head out and crank up “Roar” en route to the phonebank location.

  187. 187.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Lizzy L: As @Omnes Omnibus: indicated, the Secretary of State had no ability to effect the outcome that not – positively or negatively. If you are considering trying to talk to your friend about this you can explain that the initial security breakdown was the result of Ambassador Stevens. This is not victim blaming, however, he overruled the Regional Security Officer’s assessment that it was not safe to go to Benghazi without a larger security footprint than they had. Ambassador Stevens decided that he knew the area well, was well liked by the locals, and the two together with the minimal personal security detail he had would be sufficient. This was a fatal miscalculation.

    Once this occurred a secondary problem developed: because there was a classified listening post using the consulate compound’s footprint as cover, it could not simply be abandoned. Rather it was incumbent on all American personnel there, both diplomatic and security contractors, as well as the small compliment of Intel personnel, to destroy that facility and everything in it. This delayed any reasonable chance of retreating out of the area to safety.

    As to a potential military response. Any response would have had to come from one of three places: 1) US Army Africa in Vincenza, 2) US Army Special Operations Forces (ARSOF) aligned with Africa, 3) the Naval Special Operations Command (NAVSOC) element at Rota, Spain, 3) Combined Joint Task Force Horn of Africa (CJTF HOA) at Camp Lemmonier in Djibouti. The last one was out as the CJTF isn’t set up for dealing with this type of thing. This leaves either Vincenza or Rota. I cannot speak for who was the NAVSOC element CDR at Rota, by I knew the US Army Africa Commander at the time. Had he any way, shape, or form of 1) knowing what was going on and 2) providing relief for personnel in contact he would have done so. However, and unfortunately, US Army Africa is both an Army Service Component Command and Theater Army with no actual theater army. Basically you’re talking a headquarters element and personnel allocated to small team missions in parts of Africa. At that time those personnel were from 2nd Brigade Combat Team/1st Infantry Division, were broken into small teams, and deployed on assistance, partnering/training, and training missions in select portions of Africa. For instance, building infrastructure, digging wells, training host country military and police forces, doing medical relief missions – things like that. Small teams of engineering detachments from the various state National Guards were also deployed on some of these. Basically Commander US Army Africa is simply not equipped, in terms of personnel, to respond to something like this. And even if he was, and even if he had his personnel on the flight line, the birds warmed up, topped up, and ready to go they still would never have gotten on site in time.

    The ARSOF element aligned against Africa/assigned to US Africa Command at the time of the Benghazi attack was the 10th Special Forces Group. These Green Berets are garrisoned at Ft. Carson and rotate into and out of theater on Foreign Internal Defense (FIDS) missions to build host country partner capacity. Unless there was an Operational Detachment Alpha (ODA) in the area, there was no way they would be able to respond in time. Moreover, the logistics – in terms of both actually moving them and in getting all the clearances – of moving them, even from say a partnering mission in Algeria or Morrocco or Tunisia would have been almost impossible. Even if there was an ODA on rest at CJTF HOA they would never be able to arrive in time even if they scrambled and responded immediately.

    So this leaves the NAVSOC element at Rota. Here too you have the exact same problem that would have been faced by US Army Africa or CJTF HOA. They were simply too far away to respond in time.

    And there would be one, final problem. Lets say there was a SeAL Team or an ODA or Marine Scouts/Recon Marines working in a neighboring country and they might have been able to get to Benghazi while the attack was ongoing they would be going in blind. If you try to drop them on the objective (the consulate) directly, you make the rotary craft they’re being transported on a target and you drop them into the fight with no intel – no idea what is happening, how many enemy, where they are, etc. If you drop them outside of the objective then they have to fight their way in. These guys would then have to fight their way into and onto the objective with no intel. No idea who the bad guys are, where they are, where the good guys are, etc.

    US personnel died at Benghazi doing their jobs. All of them knew and accepted the risks when they took those jobs and when they made the trip that night (or were assigned to the Consulate facility). It is tragic, its sad, but all of us that do this work know the risks. We also know that if there’s any way for aid to come, it will. And if there isn’t than we do what we can for as long as we can. Given what has been reported and released about what happened at Benghazi that night I would not wanted to try to mount a rescue with out air assault assets/close air support and several small teams. Not one 12 man SeAL Team or ODA or Ranger Squadron or Marine Scout Team or team of Air Commandos. They are all very, very good at what they do, but despite movies and novels they’re still humans.

    I’m sure your friend has seen or heard of the movie/book Lone Survivor. That’s the story of one SeAL Team who’s op, Operation Redwing, went bad. One of twelve SeALs on that team survived that day and only because the locals took him in and protected him. And that was in Afghanistan where we had lots and lots of other Special and Conventional assets that were far better positioned to respond in short order than anything we had going on in Benghazi. What happened in Benghazi was a bad, bad day. I’m sure Omnes, Raven, Villago, and several others here can recount examples of the bad days they were part of – directly or indirectly. I could too. It is simply a part of the nature of the business.

  189. 189.

    inventor

    @cthulhu:

    Generally Dems do better when more people vote. EV and other methods of making voting easier are to our advantage while at the same time being supportive of democracy.

    I’m especially encouraged by reports that the Clinton campaign focused on “low propensity” voters and first time voters in the Early Vote. Building a lead with these voters can make it much easier to win when the regular voters show up.

  192. 192.

    Vor

    @hovercraft: that is sort of the problem. They live in a hermetically sealed information bubble. They will see 5 breathless Facebook or viral emails about an assassination attempt on Trump by Hillary operatives but never see the articles on EVERY mainstream news source explaining what really happened.

  193. 193.

    GrandJury

    I see people are still wanking about early voting.

    See you all Nov9 where I tell you how you were all wrong and what a big nothingburger it was. You can’t learn from even 4 years ago where the exact same wanking was going on around here.

  195. 195.

    Lizzy L

    @Adam L Silverman: Adam, thanks for this. Not sure if I have a way to present it to my friend, and not sure that she could accept it, but I appreciate your effort in putting it together.

    She and I have a group of mutual friends who are retired from or still serving in the Marines. They are split: some are supporting Clinton, some Trump, some are choosing not to vote — and I think those not voting are having the hardest time. We are all managing to stay friends, and will, I feel pretty confident, no matter what happens on Tuesday.

  196. 196.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Lizzy L: No worries. What I’ve found with people that think something should have been done or was prevented being done at Benghazi is that they haven’t had someone walk it through for them. The news media certainly isn’t going to and most people aren’t going to read any of the investigatory committee reports.

  197. 197.

    NotMax

    @Adam L. Silverman

    Having U.S. AFRICOM command based on another continent – in Germany and, AFAIK, having a minimal cadre of troops assigned to that command deserve mention as complicating factors as well.

  198. 198.

    Hunter

    I voted the other day. Chicago has an early voting site in each precinct — 50 altogether — but you can vote at any site. I just hopped off the bus in front of a branch library which was a site, went in, voted, and was back waiting for the next bus in about 20 minutes. It was very smooth, everyone was very jovial and helpful, no waiting.

    Add to that that we’ve been blessed with a series of nice sunny early fall days — in the 60s during the day.

  201. 201.

    Imonlylurking

    @Adam L Silverman: Can I post this comment on my facebook page with atribution? It’s fairly locked down-I have a stalker ex. I also have an authoritarian sister who was in the Army for a few years and thinks it makes her an expert on Benghazi.

  202. 202.

    Miss Bianca

    @Adam L Silverman: Wow, Adam. Very late to the party per usual these days, but just wanted to say that this is as succinct and clear a summation of the Benghazi mess as ever I’ve seen. And you’re right, I’ve never seen one from the media. I may have to bookmark this comment for later referral.

    @a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q): And Bella Q, thanks to you both for your civic duty-ing *and* disseminating photos of Taco Protest Dog. I was out on the hunt all day yesterday and I’m trying to stick with a NaNoWriMo schedule so I couldn’t attend this thread in real time, but I’ll have yez to know that I’m phone-banking this afternoon instead of going out riding again, that’s how dedicated to democracy I am! ; )

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