I need to clear something up. In the house posts, when I say we, I mainly mean the royal we. He, with the help of our next door neighbor who is unemployed and who I am paying, have done most everything. We have a plumber doing the plumbing, and an electrician doing the wiring, and now we have a traveling handyman/carpenter doing a bunch of stuff, but this army is mainly a one man band, my dad. I’m incompetent and can’t do much with my pos shoulder anyway other than light stuff. Most of what I do is daily pilgrimages to the lumber yard or Lowe’s or hell on earth Home Depot.
Next, here are some of funny pictures of my brother’s dog Boghan, the wirehaired pointing griffon and my sister’s spastic dog Lola:
He’s the most laid back dog in the world- he’s just happy to do whatever. He’s probably just lying there thinking “Are we playing? Is this fun? Are we having fun? I’m having fun?”
Finally, I ADORE THIS WEBSITE. Cats with Cartoon Eyes and Mouths:
Go. You know you want to.
Oh, also, POTUS was on Real Time with Frum, Granholm, and Martin Short, who I still think is one of the funniest people ever.
WaterGirl
Happy dog photos! Yay!
Don’t sweat it; you have been great about giving your dad credit all along.
redshirt
Are you paying by the hour or lump sum?
the Conster, la Citoyenne
How does one get one’s cat to do anything like I see on the internet? Asking for a friend.
CarolDuhart2
It’s your house, and you are spending your own money on it. As long as your crew is getting sufficient credit and pay, that’s what matters here. I mean, very few people have the time or skills or money (need margin for errors) to do it all on their own.
redshirt
@the Conster, la Citoyenne: Drugs?
Ruckus
@CarolDuhart2:
There are a few people who comment here who have done their own home renovations. I’ve know people you wouldn’t expect to paint the inside of their garage who have done huge projects that rival any contractor. But you are right time is a huge issue to doing it yourself.
trollhattan
Doggies! Griffons very rare in our area but am always drawn to them, just something about those little bearded critters. Also love Irish wolfhounds, which are like 4 griffons in one dog.
Our puppeh will be six months next week, and what a character he’s turning out to be (gravity schmavity). The old lady of the house, our Dalmatian is not pleased one bit, but the doggie UN is too busy to invervene.
NotMax
Even at gunpoint, couldn’t get me to visit a cat site.
Ugh.
YMMV (and more power to you).
David ?▶️Bad Hombres▶️? Koch
1000s of Latinos waiting in line to vote in Las Vegas (photo)
Nevada has voted for the winner of the presidency in 25 of the last 26 elections.
RaflW
Dogs With Makeup Eyebrows from the same blog was pretty funny.
But my humor sensor is really warped these days.
NotMax
@David Bad Hombres Koch
Ford won Nevada in ’76.
NickM
I think we’ve turned a corner today and things are looking better for the good guys. I guess I can sleep in peace?
the Conster, la Citoyenne
@David ?▶️Bad Hombres▶️? Koch:
Nevada, Florida, Texas and Arizona all are seeing EV numbers of low propensity (read latinx) way beyond 2012. Like Jon Ralston says, the GOP needs to find the panic button.
redshirt
@RaflW: Try turning it off then back on. That usually fixes stuff.
RaflW
@redshirt: Good point. Time to sleep, then. Except I have this damnable fall cold, and tonight is Niagra-nose night. Blergh.
Sipping ginger tea with honey, after a cup of citrus chamomile tea with honey. So of course once I do finally go to bed, I’ll have to get up twice in the night. Dammit, I’m a crabby old 50 y.o. this evening (oops, morning).
NotMax
@redshirt
Cue up The IT Crowd.
GrandJury
@the Conster, la Citoyenne: Every election people say Latino’s will show up this time every election it never happens.
So until it does actually happen, I’m very skeptical. No it’s not different this time. They said it was different in 2008 because of potentil first black/minority president and also because of the anti-immigrant stuff going on then and it never happened.
They said that in 2012 because of that anti-immigrant Arizona law and the killing of the Dream act stuff and it never happened.
redshirt
@NotMax: It’s a joke but also true.
the Conster, la Citoyenne
@GrandJury:
Um, it’s actually already happening, now.
trollhattan
@GrandJury:
Latino’s what?
You seem fun.
redshirt
@RaflW: I no longer sleep, so there’s plenty of time for reading political blogs.
the Conster, la Citoyenne
fuckwit
@GrandJury: Already happening now. Look at the early voting numbers in NV, for example.
In 2008 and 2012 it was black folks who saved the country by voting in huge numbers (with a nice assist from youth voters, particularly in 2008).
Latinos and women will keep America great this time around.
Next we have to figure out how to organize to save the states, and thus redistrict and recapture the Congress by 2020. Not an easy task.
the Conster, la Citoyenne
Federal Court blocks Arizona’s anti-ballot harvesting law
Peale
@GrandJury: which is why I expect you to come back here November 9th and sing the praises of those voters to high heaven. Even if you think Hillary would have won without them.
the Conster, la Citoyenne
In Florida.
the Conster, la Citoyenne
redshirt
Go Team Hope!
the Conster, la Citoyenne
GrandJury
@the Conster, la Citoyenne:
Ummm what? Just means more are early voting.
Same old shit. I don’t know why I bother with you people.
Remember like it was yesterday 2012 people were masturbating endlessly about encouraging exit polls and early voting in NC and Obama ended up losing that state.
the Conster, la Citoyenne
the Conster, la Citoyenne
@GrandJury:
Oh fuck off.
TaMara (HFG)
Well since it’s a pet thread and I just finished writing about Bixby and Bailey – here is their latest update and photos – tomorrow if it’s slow around here, I’ll make it an actual post with video of their unending tug wars.
RaflW
@GrandJury:
Feel free to stop.
redshirt
@GrandJury: Why are you here? You clearly hate us all. And yet sometimes you sincere post. It’s strange.
the Conster, la Citoyenne
According to 538, without Nevada, Trump’s chances of winning are 9%.
Aleta
These Republicans (today it’s Ari Flesher) who say they dislike Trump so horribly much and can’t support him … but HRC as Pres would be the ruin of the country and they can’t, can’t vote for her either …. I’d like a reporter to point out the implication that they would choose Obama or Biden over Trump.
Or else they are just flamethrowing hatred for Hillary and evading responsibility for Trump, like the opportunistic performing buzzards they’ve trained to be.
GrandJury
@Peale: Are you people all high or something?
Hillary is going to win big but it’s not going to be because of a large Latino turnout…or because of women.
Also Arizona and Texas will not magically turn blue and there won’t be rainbows and unicorns. Why? Because latinos will turn out in the dismally low numbers they always do. Otherwise Arizona and Texas would have been blue a long time ago.
CarolDuhart2
@GrandJury: It looks like Election Day lines out there tonight in Nevada. 10pm voting on a Friday night, and having to decide to allow everyone in line to vote at 10pm? When has that happened ever? Voting exceeding 2008 and 2012 already, and not even Election Day? When has that happened ever in any election since early voting was enabled?
Steeplejack
@NotMax:
LOL. Not even gonna click that link; I know what it is.
Aleta
@TaMara (HFG): Oh what a photo of them! (Hmmm http://www.artic.edu/aic/collections/artwork/6565). How fortunate and wonderful that she came to you.
David ?▶️Bad Hombres▶️? Koch
GrandJury
@CarolDuhart2: Sigh….this is like the lawn sign debate. There are lots of Trump signs in my neighbourhood therefore Hillary is losing.
So lots of early voting means what? Maybe lots of early voting?! A trend that has been increasing every election. Among all voters.
CarolDuhart2
CarolDuhart2
Mary G
@trollhattan: He is a cartoon character come to life! What a spirit.@TaMara (HFG): Bixby and Bailey are perfect for each other. Cats hate moving even more than vacuum cleaners, but Jake will come around eventually.
Larime
@GrandJury: Yeah you guys! It’ll be white dudes as usual, voting Dem, that wins it for Hillary.
Full Metal Wingnut
Clifford remains one of my favorite ever movies. One of Short’s best I think even though so many hate it. And Richard Kind and Charles Grodin too!
redshirt
@David ?▶️Bad Hombres▶️? Koch: And the Trumpenprols won’t care a whit. Republicans can contain all manner of hypocrisy – cheat on your wife, steal cars, lie constantly, no matter. Being Republican is exactly like being Saved. All is forgiven.
Peale
@GrandJury: You, sir, have about as much vision as Jill Stein.
Mike in dc
From 11 million in 2012 to 13-15 million latino voters this year. Seems highly plausible to me. A supermajority of white men will vote for Trump. A majority of white women will vote for Clinton. Supermajorities of non white voters will vote for Clinton. I have no idea what the hell grandjury is on about. Doesn’t seem to be all that tuned in.
Steeplejack (phone)
@Aleta:
Heh, I was thinking the same thing!
SectionH
John @ top: Please to adopt me retroactively? Your Dad rules.
I am so tired of our hassles.
David ?▶️Bad Hombres▶️? Koch
Bill Maher’s entire 37 minute interview w/ President Obama
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xXH5agV7skw
GrandJury
@Mike in dc: Supermajority of white men? Really? You mean unlike past elections? I gotta correct at least one of your many wrong assumptions. It’s old white men. Usually very old.
Same with all your other nonsense. The breakdown of which group votes for which candidate is not that much different than other elections. I think you people are watching too much cable news and it’s messing with your heads.
Go find a 2012 in the archive and you will find people masturbating about the same “the Latinos are turning up this time” bullshit. No they are not coming. More early voting yes…across the board. Not just Latinos. Doesn’t mean more of them voting. There’s a difference between the two ya know.
TS
@the Conster, la Citoyenne:
So this is how Nate gets himself out of the bind of saying the race has narrowed & Trump has a chance. This is the last election I’ll look at Nate’s analysis.
CarolDuhart2
@Mike in dc: A big increase is in Florida along the I-4 corridor, as PRs flee the island’s economic crisis. Being American citizens, they can vote immediately, and they are largely voting for Hillary. In addition, 1000’s of Hispanic native-born children are turning 18 every year. Even if their parents aren’t legal, they are and can vote in both their interests and their parents interests.
Peale
@Mike in dc: yep. I don’t get it either. 48% turnout rate in 2012. At 15 million turnout rate is about 55%. That’s a huge jump for a group of voters. Rather than announcing that those votes don’t really matter, why not hope to be happy. Hasn’t been that high since 1992.
Mike in dc
@GrandJury:
Their share of the early voting electorate is up as well, though. If it was just ev up across the board, their share wouldn’t be higher.
CarolDuhart2
Remember, that back in 2004, Bush got 40% of the Hispanic vote, a great deal of the Muslim/Middle Eastern vote due to Immigration reform and conservative values. It allowed him to win Florida that year and Nevada and Arizona. But a Republican Congress refused to even consider Immigration reform and lost what could have been a sizable voting block. Add the xenophobic and racist rhetoric spewed by the Conservative Industrial Entertainment Complex, and Hispanics have had enough of the Republican Party.
redshirt
@CarolDuhart2: The Repukes really were this close to their permanent majority. But then W. fucked it all up and it’s been a war ever since.
GrandJury
@TS: No, Nate gets himself out of the bind by changing his numbers day before and on election day. That way he can point back through out the year and say, see, I was right. Almost nobody will remember anything else as time goes on. That last prediction on election day is the one he will keep in the archives. That’s what he did in 2012.
His model has a +/- 5% error. Obama won big in 2012 with +3.9%. So he gave himself a huge margin to play with so he can say it’s a horse race and get more clicks.
CarolDuhart2
Remember the talk of the rising non-white majority? I suspect Trump has greatly speeded up that development by several years. As the older, less Americanized, and conservative Latinos move off the scene, Democrats will get a greater and greater percentage of that vote. Lots of places in the west will look more like California polling-wise to the point the Republicans will have to choose between their prejudices and actually having a President with a chance to win.
Mike in dc
Also, a second thing GJ is missing. Even if turnout were the same, winning 80-18 vs. 70-27 represents a 2 million vote difference. If the number does go up to 15 million, that’s a 4 million vote difference. That’s enormous. Not enough to win Texas, but more than enough to get NV, FL, maybe even AZ.
redshirt
I’m not sure why we’re all not talking about how terrible Nate’s hair is. Like beyond belief. He must have some form of management, I assume. How do they let him in front of cameras with that hair?! Does Nate shoot them down? Does he have no Mgmt? I mean, male pattern baldness is no unique torture; accept it and work with what you got. Nate still has plenty of hair, but the schizo comb over look is not working. Either shave it all and go short, or trim it where your hair is still growing strong.
CaseyL
John, it never occurred to me that you were doing any of the physical heavy lifting, and I would have been alarmed if you were. You have a history of injuring yourself in creative and original ways. The new house isn’t being remodeled so much as it’s being rebuilt: far too many opportunities for Something Ghastly to happen.
Your Dad, now: he rocks. Bet he’s loving every minute, too!
@TaMara (HFG): I love those pictures! Bixby strikes quite a regal pose – does he do that on his own, or did you teach him?
Anoniminous
Clark (Las Vegas) and Washoe (Reno) are the two counties to win in Nevada. In 2012 Obama won ’em with 482,784 total votes out of his state wide total of 528,801. Romney got 462,422 total votes in 2012 so Obama would have won if he hadn’t gotten any votes from the other counties. Clinton should do better in both counties from her overpowering lead with women and an solid turnout from the rest of the Obama coalition.
redshirt
@CaseyL: You just emasculated John to his Dad, which at this point should be embarrassing.
GregB
@redshirt:
He’s a young Rudy Giuliani cover-act.
Aleta
@redshirt: If you ask me we’ve been overlooking hair left and right. In the end this election is all going to come down to the hair. Hillary’s hairdos have shown responsible management, clear mastery of the issues, and a willingness to experiment and improve. In contrast to Donald’s rigid, glazed effort to plaster over the truth.
His hair just screams “animal abuse” to anyone who’s listening!
redshirt
@Aleta: Hillary’s hair has been on target all election season. No complaints here.
Donald’s “hair”, of course, is a gigantic thing.
Matt McIrvin
@GrandJury:
Excited anecdotes are one thing, actual data is another.
The North Carolina situation sounds to me as if it’s more or less as you say. There are no big surprises there in early voting: black turnout is down just a little, probably because of vote suppression efforts as much as any loss in enthusiasm from Obama, but the pollsters’ turnout models already baked that in. The only wild card is an increase in unaffiliated voters, who are disproportionately white, but also young and urban; they may be Trump-bros or they could be just the other half of the Obama coalition. They think the early-voting ones are more likely to be Clinton voters. It sounds like Latino turnout is up, but they’re not as big a deal in NC. Anyway, that article suggests that Clinton will probably win the state, but not because of any unexpected turnout surge.
But in Florida and especially Nevada, it really sounds like something important is happening. In Florida it could just be that more Latinos are shifting to vote early who would have voted on Election Day anyway, but the numbers in Nevada are so huge that I don’t think that explanation holds water. And since Nevada (unlike Florida) is currently polling tied or leaning slightly Republican based on existing turnout models, that could actually be decisive there.
If there are multiple nasty surprises elsewhere, Nevada could be the key piece of the Blue Wall. Its electoral votes are exactly enough to offset New Hampshire, plus Maine district 2, plus that one elector in Washington state.
Pogonip
@redshirt: Consider how many trips to the ER Ma and Pa Cole must have made during Cole’s childhood. They know he’s a klutz. That’s probably why Pa Cole is doing this.
J R in WV
@RaflW:
I’m a crabby 65 y o every evening this year, and believe me, what you drink before bedtime has very little to do with your midnight bathroom visits, which run every 3 or 4 hours no matter what.
It gives you a chance to do GOTV calls for Trump at 3 am !!!
I kid, I would NEVER recommend anyone to do GOTV calls for Trump – ever!!!
ETA – to make sense.
WaterGirl
@Aleta: @Steeplejack (phone): I had the same image, too when I looked at TaMara’s photo! How fun