Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

You cannot shame the shameless.

We still have time to mess this up!

Peak wingnut was a lie.

Reality always lies in wait for … Democrats.

Let there be snark.

Not all heroes wear capes.

Too often we confuse noise with substance. too often we confuse setbacks with defeat.

When do we start airlifting the women and children out of Texas?

If senate republicans had any shame, they’d die of it.

You can’t attract Republican voters. You can only out organize them.

When someone says they “love freedom”, rest assured they don’t mean yours.

Schmidt just says fuck it, opens a tea shop.

This blog will pay for itself.

if you can’t see it, then you are useless in the fight to stop it.

Some judge needs to shut this circus down soon.

The willow is too close to the house.

Take hopelessness and turn it into resilience.

Since when do we limit our critiques to things we could do better ourselves?

Proof that we need a blogger ethics panel.

I did not have this on my fuck 2022 bingo card.

Americans barely caring about Afghanistan is so last month.

Conservatism: there are some people the law protects but does not bind and others who the law binds but does not protect.

… riddled with inexplicable and elementary errors of law and fact

“More of this”, i said to the dog.

You are here: Home / Politics / Domestic Politics / Not Tempting Fate (Open Thread)

Not Tempting Fate (Open Thread)

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Anyone having a watch party tomorrow? We are – a small, mostly family one. My sister, my daughter and a couple of my daughter’s friends are coming by for a chili dinner and to view Election Night coverage.

For the over-21s, a variety of libations will be available, but the champagne will remain on ice until the race is called, at which point we will break out the bubbly to toast the first woman president-elect or drown our sorrows and form a resistance cell. We’re prepared for it to go late but hoping it’s not so late that the champagne must be incorporated into brunch mimosas. But like the Girl Scout I once was, I am prepared, if so.

There’s no dress code at our party, but Suffragette white is suggested, despite the hazards associated with chili consumption. You?

Reader Interactions

169Comments

  1. 1.

    Yutsano

    Probably will catch the calls at the end of the night because I’ll be working up until right before then. But it’s pretty much over once Pennsylvania gets called anyway.

  3. 3.

    sigaba

    Impromptu gathering tomorrow with a friend, I’m bringing a bottle of Yippee-Ki-Yay (if I can find it). My friend is a half-black, half-West Indian gun-owning liberal Republican very well-off screenwriter who voted for Hillary, should be fun :)

  7. 7.

    SteveinSC

    Côtes du Rhone rosé, baguette and omelettes (à la Julia Child.) For desert, Revenge served ice cold, I hope.

  8. 8.

    Ceci n'est pas mon nym

    Just my wife and I. I have to be up at 4 am but there’s no way I’m going to bed with any kind of uncertainty about the Presidential and Senate outcomes.

    So I may not be a candidate for Employee of the Year on Wednesday.

    Tomorrow is my birthday so maybe we’ll do some of the watching from a restaurant.

  9. 9.

    Face

    Reposting from the dead thread below….TPM has NM as a toss up.

    I’m not sure anything shows the folly of polling in this cycle than a state which is certainly going to go to Clinton coming up tied the day before the election. Maybe Nate’s claim that extreme uncertainty rules the day is realistic after all.

  15. 15.

    Joe Falco

    Just a normal night with my wife and our roommates hopefully. I’m sure I’ll be checking in on election results every few minutes. Anyhoo! I will either be getting up early to vote before going to work tomorrow morning or vote after work. I’m taking it down to the wire, baby!

  16. 16.

    David ?▶️?Blue Wall?▶️? Koch

    “I did a lot of freaking out about Barack Obama.” But, he said, “Obama made me a better man.” He regrets calling the President a racist and counts himself a Black Lives Matter supporter. “There are things unique to the African-American experience that I cannot relate to,” he said. “I had to listen to them.” ~ Glenn Beck

    Before his conversion on the road to Damascus, the Apostle Paul, then known as Saul, was a “zealous” Pharisee who “intensely persecuted” the followers of Jesus.

    Obama works in mysterious ways.

  17. 17.

    Chris

    Either hanging out at the watch party the Maryland Democrats are throwing, or the one my roommates are throwing. Probably one and then the other.

  18. 18.

    Ceci n'est pas mon nym

    Question: whose election coverage are you folks planning to watch? I’m sure I’ll check in here and at Wonkette for a steady supply of snark to keep me going, but I think I have zero tolerance for any kind of punditry or commentary. Minimalist coverage if that exists.

  19. 19.

    Elmo

    I’m going to be in Cleveland of all the unlikely places, traveling with my Republican boss who thinks Trump is a dangerous buffoon but who may well have voted for him – I haven’t dared ask.

    I was heartsick the other day to learn that my OTHER brother – the smart one, the one I’m close to, the one who not only cheered my marriage but remembers my anniversary – is voting for Trump. It’s soul-crushing.

    My wife can’t stand politics and hates them all equally except for Obama whom she adores.

    So I will be turning to this group of snarling jackals for my community. Thanks for being here.

  20. 20.

    gwangung

    Might be headed over to a party for the local theatre community. Not in a mood to be by myself and it might be fun to be among the more conservative elements in a room…

  22. 22.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Gin & Tonic: Gonna change your nym?

    @Face: I remember in 2012 JMM would always hype the worst polls for Obama. He could give Arianna Huffington lessons in click baiting.

  23. 23.

    trollhattan

    @Elmo:
    Jeebez, you get my vote for Weirdest Road Trip Not Involving H.S. Thompson, Ever. Lotsa luck, and don’t wear your Cubs hat.

  25. 25.

    Steeplejack

    Going over to Sighthound Hall to watch with Bro’ Man, his Brazilian husband, their mixed-race adopted daughter, their whitey-McWhiterson adopted son, various gay friends and, of course, Kitty, the (current*) eponymous sighthound. A real Norman Rockwell gathering.

    Bro’ Man is cooking dinner. He has promised “freedom spaghetti, liberty meatballs, POTUS garlic bread” and a “progressive salad” with pear, walnuts and bleu cheese. I will be stopping by Total Wine to get some fine American vintages. Maybe I will bring dessert, too.

    * Like the Supreme Court, a life appointment.

  26. 26.

    dexwood

    @Face:
    Nah, no toss up here. All recent in-state polling I’ve seen has Hillary ahead still. I can tell you I am surprised by the Hispanic Trump supporters I’ve seen, but they are outnumbered. I know a few Native American Trump supporters, but I seriously doubt they are representative of the majority.

  27. 27.

    Roger Moore

    @Face:
    Looking at their polls, I think this is a methodological flaw. They’re using some kind of regression to get a trend line and using that trend line for their state of the election. In the case of NM, the recent polls are much tighter than the older polls, so they see that as being a surge toward Trump and extrapolate to a closer race than any of the individual polls show. Looks like a dumb way of doing things to me.

  28. 28.

    Kay Eye

    Big party in the neighborhood, hosted by a couple who’ve had their Hillary sign stolen twice in the past 3 weeks. I’ve got my Hillary blue jacket for my pantsuit, and some great campaign buttons. My favorite is a set of three small buttons – one says Hillary & Tim, one is a heart, and one is a smiley face with Kaine’s arched left eyebrow.
    I’ll drink whatever they’re having.

  29. 29.

    Barbara

    I bought a very nice wine on Sunday, which I hope to drink tomorrow, with my husband. However, I have no other plans. Last time around, I went to a great election party hosted by one of my colleagues, who is now in the last stages of cancer. Not feeling a lot of joy.

  31. 31.

    Nina

    I can’t miss work on Wednesday, so I’m hoping that they call at least one of the decisive states before 10 EST because that’s as late as I can reasonably stay up.

  32. 32.

    SiubhanDuinne

    I’ll be poll-watching until the polls close, whatever time that ends up being, so where I head after that will depend on how late it is, how tired and hungry I am, and whether I prefer to be solitary or sociable.

  35. 35.

    Face

    @dexwood: Does.Not.Compute. They’re literally voting for a man who is promising to make their life infinitely worse in so many ways. Either deportation of relatives or colleagues, and/or cutting off money (more like taxing) sent to family in Mexico, attempting to build a wall, etc..

    The disconnect associated with who they’re supporting and what hell is unleashed on them should he win is absolutely mind-blowing.

  36. 36.

    hovercraft

    I will be watching with my Mom and my sisters, and the kids. The other day my 13 year old who will turn 14 on the 13th was asking me for a way to explain for her how to explain to her 14 yr old friend who is half white and half Dominican, why she was wrong for supporting Trump over a liar. Her other friend, also Dominican was no longer speaking to the first friend because she supports the hateful Trump who wants to rip apart her family. This is what this has done to our kids, so we will all watch together, we will be limited to non alcoholic libations, no one in the family drinks. We will sing and dance (fingers crossed) on the Shittgibbons vote.

  37. 37.

    imonlylurking

    Yep. Election night make your own taco/nacho party. The Facebook event has been sent out and 99% of the shopping completed. I really want to include D&D but I don’t think there is enough time to set up the rules.

  38. 38.

    FredW

    There are downsides to California — we usually don’t matter. But we usually don’t have to stay up quite so late :)

  39. 39.

    geg6

    Tomorrow night is the only night this week I won’t be working. I have two nights (tonight and Wednesday) doing financial aid nights at local high schools and one financial aid presentation Thursday on campus for prospective students (I will have put in more than 40 hours by the time Thursday night ends; being a salaried employee sucks sometimes). So I will not be able to relax a single evening this week. But at least I’ll be home for the election returns.

    We will be sitting at home, probably finishing off the roast chicken with carrots, fennel and potatoes I made Saturday. We have plenty of beer and wine in the house and bottle of champagne I bought back when I decided on Hillary, just as the new year was being rung in. I’m hoping to be drinking it in celebration and not just downing all the wine and beer in the house in despair.

    I am optimistic about our girl. I am very anxious about the Senate.

  40. 40.

    hovercraft

    Katy Tur has heard that there are people walking in writing down Bernie’s name and not voting for anyone else, is that a concern. NH was such a strong place for Bernie and Trump, how can you call it Clinton country? Reporter says she has a ground game and a history, and she will get more of her base than he will of the GOP base. Now we need to cut it short to go to the Shittgibbon.

  43. 43.

    Chris

    @Face:

    Looking at the sheer number of white people making less than a million a year who’ve spent the last fifty years voting for assholes who promise to make their life worse, it’s no surprise that there are idiots in the other demographic groups as well.

    (True, Trump is being a lot more explicit about how Hispanics will fare in his admin than he is about how non-rich white people will. But that’s why the rate in the Hispanic community is still much lower).

  44. 44.

    pamelabrown53

    Betty, I’m so pleased that you shared your election night plans. I can’t seem to settle on anything even while I believe we’ll be victorious on the presidential level. I can’t even decide how (which channel) to watch the returns because they all grate on my last nerve and so many red states will be called early. While we’ve been invited to group events, somehow I want to be able to skip to @ 11:00 PM. and just celebrate. It’s the in between time that has me anxious. Reminds me of my sons’ soccer games: I’d run up and down the field kicking an imaginary soccer ball when I truly just wanted to provide the celebratory pizza or comfort pizza. Way too timid, I know. .

  45. 45.

    O. Felix Culpa

    I’ll be at campaign headquarters all day tomorrow. We start out (very) early distributing election door hangers at the homes of those who haven’t voted yet, followed by phone calls and door-to-door canvassing all day until the polls close at 7pm. We’re constantly refreshing data to focus our efforts on folks who still need to get to the polls. Then we stand by for precinct totals as they’re called in to us, which we then relay to state HQ.

    Finally, we join the HQ watch party viewers including our congressman and several state-level candidates and break out the champagne! The latter is unofficial, as we can’t include alcoholic offerings in our publicity, nudge, nudge, wink, wink.

  46. 46.

    Gravie

    I have a rehearsal until 9 p.m. PST, then going home to husband and bunkering in. I may not even turn on the TV — can’t stand any of the nattering pundits, and I doubt that any TV coverage will be free of them. I guess I’ll just wake up Wednesday morning and find out whether to jump for joy or howl in despair.

  47. 47.

    Lizzy L

    I refuse to watch TV, so I’ll be hanging out — here, LGM, TPM, a few other places. I might listen to NPR until Mara Liason or Cokie Roberts show up. CanNOT listen to them. I’ve got Torpedo Extra IPA in the fridge, and there’s all kinds of food to cook, so I’ll be good. Probably make some happy phone calls to far away folks. I’m planning to wear my Hilz T-shirt all day tomorrow. It says “Proud to support Mme. President.”

  48. 48.

    Major Major Major Major

    Randall Munroe is with her.

    I’m going to a friend’s apartment for the viewing after work, starting around 6 Pacific. He lives on top of a high hill, so we can watch civilization burn/enjoy watching people celebrate through the evening. We’re going to watch it on the internet? Also somebody has an xfinity login?

  49. 49.

    Mary G

    I just reached my goal of 250 calls from home for the weekend. Mostly no answers but I spoke to people from Florida to Arizona, plus locals for Applegate. I haven’t had the TV on except for debates and baseball games, but now I am watching the campaign coverage, changing the channel every time Trump or one of his flunkies comes on.

    I’ll watch the returns with housemates if any are home, otherwise it’s you guys, Juicers, and Twitter. Plus Fox. I turned to it right before the Rove meltdown in 2012. I doubt I’ll get that lucky again, but Hannity should be a hoot.

  50. 50.

    Roger Moore

    @Face:

    Does.Not.Compute. They’re literally voting for a man who is promising to make their life infinitely worse in so many ways. Either deportation of relatives or colleagues, and/or cutting off money (more like taxing) sent to family in Mexico, attempting to build a wall, etc..

    Not necessarily. The Hispanic (not Latino, TYVM) population in New Mexico is different from many other places in the US. There are plenty of old families there who have been living there since it was part of New Spain, don’t have any friends or relatives in Mexico, and would be perfectly happy pretending their state passed directly from Spanish to American control without ever being part of an independent Mexico. They probably think Trump’s comments about evil Mexicans apply only to immigrants and not to anyone who isn’t sufficiently white.

  53. 53.

    Albert Z.

    I’ve scheduled flu shots for the family election night evening. This is just a coincidence (I think).

  54. 54.

    Punchy

    I’m going off the grid until 7PM tomorrow, aside from ESPN. Dont want to know updates, rumors, leanings, or anything to cause me to puke. I’d like to turn on the TV at 7 and be told that Hillz has cleaned up the entire East Coast (aside from South Carolina).

    Once we hear she’s won PA and OH, or PA and FL, it’s game over.

  55. 55.

    Calouste

    @Nina: There’s a good chance of that happening. Last polls in Florida close at 8, but most of the state closes at 7, and most of the votes have already been cast in early voting. Should be called before 10.

    I don’t know how useful exit polling is going to be with all the early voting these days though.

  56. 56.

    RSR

    Tuesdays are the regularly scheduled gatherings for Drinking Liberally Philadelphia, so I know a few people heading there. I’m not sure what my household is doing yet. With 14 and 12 year olds at home, I think we’ll probably spend the evening with them to watch the returns.

  58. 58.

    Timurid

    …and CNN is riding the horse race to the bitter end, with the latest hot take being “Oh my goodness, what about the weather?!”
    When in reality, tomorrow’s weather will be essentially clean room conditions for a national election…

  60. 60.

    JMG

    I am too superstitious to do anything but check results on TV and online, mostly the latter, at home with my wife. Last big election party we had was for 1980. Never again!

  61. 61.

    dexwood

    @Face:
    Tell me about it. Talk about voting against yourself. For some Hispanics whose families have been here for hundreds of years, immigration is a big issue and many take a stand against “Mexicans”. As for the Native folks, my wife, a Pueblo Indian, thinks it comes down to Hillary simply being a woman. That certainly is the case for her father and some of the older men I spoke with at a large family gathering Saturday.

  62. 62.

    Larkspur

    @Origuy: Mmm, pie!

    I am not house-sitting at the moment, so I have no TV, so I will be depending on our home grown snarling jackals. @Elmo: I’m with you.

  63. 63.

    Latino J

    I wonder how I would feel if it was Nikki Halley or Susan Collins or Condi Rice on the cusp of breaking the glass ceiling? For me, the excitement that my girls might see this moment in a day isn’t tempered at all by my strong partisan instincts. Away from elections and partisanship, I recognize that the 3 women I named above all represent their gender, their party, and their country with intelligence and a high level of capability. If it was them, I think I’d be able to still find the reverence and awe in the moment (Bachman or Palin – forget that noise ?)

    For the sake of my female Republican friends or those with with daughters, or heck, just Republican men who aren’t Neanderthals, I hope they can share in the joy of the moment.

  65. 65.

    GregB

    Film maker Ken Burns warming up crowd at UNH talking about history and choices.

    President Obama soon to speak.

  67. 67.

    patroclus

    I’ll be at home and will get my tacos from the taco truck on the corner. Vivo en Chicago y soy cerca de un barrio.

  68. 68.

    Fair Economist

    @FredW:

    There are downsides to California — we usually don’t matter. But we usually don’t have to stay up quite so late :)

    Mail-in! Best of all worlds.

  69. 69.

    geg6

    @Timurid:

    LOL! This morning’s local news had a long intro to the weather discussing how weather has influenced elections in the past here. But he said it should not be a problem tomorrow. They are expecting one of the most pleasant Election Days ever, as far as the weather goes.

  71. 71.

    Larkspur

    @Gin & Tonic: Laphroiag! My fave. Once I used to be able to afford it now and then. Maybe I should smash the piggy bank for this occasion. Hold the kids upside down till their pockets are empty. Make them eat PB&J for the next six weeks. (PS: I don’t have kids.)

  72. 72.

    trollhattan

    @Steeplejack:
    Calling a sighthound “kitty” is hilarious, given that any* will tower over a kitty and most will be quite willing to go fetch one, given half a chance.
    *Whippet excepted.

  73. 73.

    hovercraft

    Larry Sabato’s Final Prediction: Clinton Wins, With A Tied Senate
    TPM

    The team predicts that Clinton will win Tuesday with 322 electoral votes compared to Trump’s 216 and that the U.S. Senate will be tied 50-50 with Vice President Tim Kaine serving as its tie breaker.

    The silver lining for Republicans is that they are still expected to hold the House of Representatives, but the UVa crew writes that they will likely lose 13 seats.

    Sabato’s Crystal Ball prognosticates that Democrats will pick up Senate seats in Wisconsin, Illinois, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. Republicans, meanwhile, are slated to hold their seats in North Carolina, Missouri, Ohio and Florida. In Nevada where Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid is retiring, Sabato wrote that Catherine Cortez Masto, the Democrat, is most likely to win.

    In the presidential contest, Sabato and his team believe that Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Hampshire and Nevada all lean in Clinton’s direction. Meanwhile, Ohio, Utah, Arizona, and Iowa all lean toward Trump – although the team notes that Ohio and North Carolina are both squeakers.

  76. 76.

    trollhattan

    @Fair Economist:
    Nothing better than to look at my watch, see it hit 8:00 p.m. and then turn on my teevee machine, confident the election is being called.

    Thanks, Obama! Thanks future madam president!

  77. 77.

    jacy

    I’m trying to convince The Boyfriend that we should break out a giant sampler of craft beers and drink heavily until all a) everything is decided or, b) we pass out. This is complicated by the fact that we’re both suffering from whatever creeping crud our respective children have infected us with and both feel like shit. (And it doesn’t even seem to be the same creeping crud, so I guess there’s still the possibility of cross-contamination.) Either way, carnitas and tamales for dinner. And probably as much likker as we can safely mix with cold and flu medication…..

  78. 78.

    O. Felix Culpa

    @Roger Moore:

    The Hispanic (not Latino, TYVM) population in New Mexico is different from many other places in the US.

    That is a true statement. Nonetheless, NM – including Hispanics – will go for Hillary. She has consistently led, with varying margins, thoughout the campaign and the latest NM polls show her with a healthy five-point lead, larger than at the national level.

    The post-Comey polls in NM show Hispanic Hillary support at 54% / Trump at 27% / Johnson (local boy) at 14%. So there’s that.

    ETA: Edited for clarity…and missing words. :)

  79. 79.

    The Golux

    @Ceci n’est pas mon nym:

    …whose election coverage are you folks planning to watch?

    It never occurred to me to do so before, but you can watch the results come in on C-Span. I imagine that would be about as neutral as you could get.

  80. 80.

    Latino J

    @Roger Moore:

    How insular are those communities? In other words, how often do they bounce off white Americans who haven’t lived next to them for generations.

    Because believe me – spend ten minutes at a gas station off 1-95 in the south, and someone will quickly remind them they are Mexican. Not necessarily as an insult – but they’ll be reminded somehow.

  81. 81.

    David ?▶️?Blue Wall?▶️? Koch

    M E M O

    To: BJ Braintrust

    Subject: Who should Hillz appoint to State, Defense, Treasury, Attorney General?

    I’m thinking Bill Weld might be an interesting AG. He hates Comey, so he can keep him in line and force him to fire the coup plotters in the NY section.

  82. 82.

    hueyplong

    With spouse only.

    MSNBC and, if happy tells manifest, we race over to Fox News.

    VSOP for her; 12 yr Irish for me (only if the news is good). No alcohol or sharp objects if news trends poorly.

  83. 83.

    Uncle Ebeneezer

    I will be wrangling a bunch of immature brats who refuse to listen and throw endless tantrums. No not Republicans…tennis lessons with kids. I’m sure I’ll be checking my phone obsessively between drills but the show will probably be called while I’m still on the court (9pm PST.) Kinda glad I won’t be able to watch the MSM coverage live.

  84. 84.

    Eugene in Eugene

    @Face: Although I’m not sure what I’m going to say is applicable in this particular case, there are a number of Latino New Mexicans who proudly proclaim to be full-blooded “Spanish” descended from the original European settlers of the 17th & 18th centuries and not sullied by any Native or Mexican heritage. That such a genetic feat, particularly in rural northern NM which never got that many Spanish settlers to begin with, would only be possible with centuries of inbreeding is not remarked upon.

  86. 86.

    Latino J

    @hovercraft:

    So basically if that happens, Kaine is going to be the Senator from Washington DC for the next 2 years at least.

    Talk about a lateral move.

  88. 88.

    Shell

    than to look at my watch, see it hit 8:00 p.m

    If I remember the last two elections, the first results coming in are southern states, usually going to the Republicans. So by the third one I was having conniptions. Then suddenly, here comes Vermont. But only 2 electoral votes, who cares about Vermont! By that time I have to change the channel for a little bit.

  89. 89.

    catclub

    @redshirt:

    That must burn Trump bad, as I assume he’s a guy who “checks the markets”.

    I suspect Trump has zero assets in the market. That would be too sensible.
    All his assets are in real estate and his businesses. Or in hock. haha.

  90. 90.

    greennotGreen

    This being an open thread, and Vox.com having no comments, I wonder if anyone would care to put in their two cents on Ezra’s article “Donald Trump’s success reveals a frightening weakness in American democracy.” Personally, I think it reeks of both-siderism (and a startling misuse of statistics.) It’s the Republican party that’s gone off the rails, not the Democratic party. It’s the Republicans that reject science and data and actual reality, not the Democrats. Yes, I think that having one of the major parties go batshit insane isn’t healthy for our democracy, but the fault is not evenly divided.

    And I will be sober and eating bland food tomorrow night because of chemo. Though I may have to make a Schadenfreude pie.

  91. 91.

    Chip Daniels

    We live in downtown LA.
    There is a taco truck that is parked every night on the corner outside our apartment.
    I may go down at 8:00 PST and get a few.

    I do expect quite a lot of cheers if not actual fireworks from our heavily Hispanic neighborhood.

  92. 92.

    LAO

    I’ve got puppy training class till 9:15, probably won’t make it home till 9:45. I have never been so grateful for an unruly puppy! The thought of watching is making me break out in hives.

  93. 93.

    Lee

    We are having about 8 people over. We are serving a bunch of Indian food that according to my Indian coworkers is as southern Indian as you can get without traveling there.

    One of which is a old friend whose relatives live in the area and are rabid Republicans. She decided she wanted to be in a completely different town for the election so we offered her refuge.

  95. 95.

    Hildebrand

    I am an election inspector tomorrow, so I will be at the precinct by 615am. After we have the last voters do their civic duty, we will go through the process of securing the voting machines, turn it all over to the chair and co-chair, and should be done around 9pm. After a nice walk home, my wife, 14 year old daughter (who is very excited about Hillary, but crushed that this means that President Obama is in his last months as President), and I will watch returns – with chicken wings and homemade bagel pizzas on the menu (and plenty of Negra Modelo to drink).

  96. 96.

    Face

    @David ?▶️?Blue Wall?▶️? Koch: Dont tell me, tell Josh. That’s why I’m so gobsmacked that his algorithm either blew a gasket or someone punched in a serious typo. Cant make any sense of how he sees those numbers and it crunches out as “Clinton +0.5”

    I have zero allusions that NM will be anything but dark blue tomorrow.

  97. 97.

    Mnemosyne

    The CEO of the Giant Evil Corporation sent an email to all employees encouraging us to vote tomorrow. I don’t remember that happening in 2008 or 2012, but I’ve lost quite a bit of that email in system crashes.

    G has to work, so not sure what I’m going to do.

  99. 99.

    peach flavored shampoo

    @hovercraft: A tied Senate is a Dem Senate, assuming Manchin doesn’t switch parties or go completely rogue on Clinton’s nominees.

  100. 100.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Latino J: I think VA’s special election to replace Kaine comes up in less than a year. I’m sure somebody here knows.

    I’m praying there was minimal ticket-splitting in all those newly registered FL voters and Murphy takes out Rubio, but I’m not hearing that from even the most optimistic of tea leaf readers

  101. 101.

    hovercraft

    I’m not sure how we missed Sister Sarah out stumping for Trump.
    She chatted with BillO last night about it.
    Via C & L

    BILL O’REILLY: The polls say that Clinton’s up by five. Are you willing to make a prediction that Trump will carry Michigan this time around?

    SARAH PALIN: There’s no reason why he wouldn’t! Like I’ve said before, polls are only good for strippers and cross-country skiers.

    O’Reilly asked Palin if she was going to stay in Michigan to help get out the vote.

    Clearly she did not expect any geography on this test.

    She said, “I think my assignment, is, I move to another locale for a couple of events. I don’t know all that inside baseball stuff, campaign events….”

    “Well, you gotta know where you’re going…” said O’Reilly.

    “No I don’t!”

    Oh Sarah Palin. How can you keep on being you?

    One wonders why they didn’t use her more.

  105. 105.

    Geeno

    Tomorrow night is a very special Taco Tuesday at the Geenodome.
    Followed by potables of choice to savor the results as they come in.

  106. 106.

    Peale

    @hovercraft: Even Trump figured out that you don’t disparage Mexicans in Minnesota…you go after Somalis. Learning the local culture is important for these kinds of events.

  108. 108.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Face: Speaking of NM, Susanna Martinez has slipped out of the news. Is she still never-Trump? She doesn’t get the attention Kasich does, or even Jeff Flake.

  110. 110.

    Ivan X

    Ok, I am ready to get on a fucking plane early tomorrow and go to Florida, North Carolina, or anywhere else I am needed that’s not west of the Mississippi and can be reached by nonstop from NYC. Does anyone here have any special insight as to where, particularly, I should head, or who I should call to ask?

  113. 113.

    Lee

    @greennotGreen:

    I read that earlier. I think you want to read to much in to the both-siderism. Yes he could have mentioned that the reason the two parties are more opposed than a few decades earlier is because the GOP has gone off the rails, but also keep in mind there are no more blue-dog democrats in the party.

    He does bring up some really valid points about the GOP. Of course they will never listen to him.

  115. 115.

    trollhattan

    @Hildebrand:
    Yours is an uber-important job (both the poll thing and raising a 14YO girl). Hope your long day goes well.

    My 14 YO is super into this election, will likewise miss “so chill” Obama and seriously excited for madam president. Next election she won’t have to content herself with helping fill out my ballot. (Hopefully not featuring a slate of seventeen propositions.)

  116. 116.

    catclub

    @Lee:

    but also keep in mind there are no more blue-dog democrats in the party.

    so your correlation-causality fan would draw the conclusion that the blue dogs in the GOP drove it to madness. Rabies!

  117. 117.

    Bonnie

    My sister and I are going to have a movie marathon beginning about noon tomorrow (that’s when I get up) and ending around midnight, when my sister will be sound asleep and I will move to my bedroom continuing the marathon until about 3 a.m. The marathon will actually begin today after Monday Night Football. Go Seahawks!

  118. 118.

    Peale

    @David ?▶️?Blue Wall?▶️? Koch: Egads. I’m still processing this. Why do I get the sense that this conversion is a lot like Ariana Huffington’s back in the day. She suddenly became a liberal – so she could attack Al Gore from the left. There was no stopping to pass “moderate Democrat” to collect $200, either.

  119. 119.

    Jeffro

    @greennotGreen: I havent read the article yet but plan to…if there’s a weakness in our democracy, it’s that someone as obviously unfit as Trump can get the GOP nomination. All of the usual norms are still operative on the Dem side

  120. 120.

    hovercraft

    @Latino J:
    Jon Ralston says Cortes Mastro will win Nevada, so that would push is up to 51. If we fall short then yes Kaine would be the tiebreaker. Sabato’s projection is very conservative, so I would consider this the ball estimate.

  121. 121.

    piratedan

    will be attending the Southern Culture On The Skids show here in town on their western tour of the US. Seems like a great way to lose all of the tension that following the election has brought. Hoping for stellar news out of AZ, but I’ve already voted and tapped the discretionary funding on behalf of Dem candidates.

  123. 123.

    trollhattan

    @hovercraft:
    Wow, just…wow. To think a mere eight years ago….

    They should put her in a campaign Suburban and drop her off at some abandoned strip mall with the assignment to watch for voter fraud. Perhaps my fondest memory of the entire screwed up election was watching Trump standing mute as Sarah delivered her endorsement. What a sight to behold.

  128. 128.

    JPL

    @LAO: haha.. I have children’s chewable benadryl for my mutt, and I might just take a few of those and go to bed.

    The election has been good for my system, though.

  130. 130.

    Nina

    Florida didn’t decide who had won for four stinking days last time, I hope they’re more on the ball this time around.

  132. 132.

    ? Martin

    @David ?▶️?Blue Wall?▶️? Koch: I suspect this is our extinction burst election. White christians aren’t getting their way nationally. They can still work at the state level where demographics keep them in power, but they have lost the national fight. Think of the GOP backing Trump as a toddler’s final lashing out, saying how much they hate mommy and daddy, promising to destroy everything that mommy and daddy care about – drawing on the walls, breaking the glassware, etc. This is their last glorious burst of defiance before acceptance. It may go one more round, but it’ll have to be bigger and more unhinged in 2020, and they may simply lack for a candidate who can pull it off.

    White christians need an alliance to win nationally now. They need someone not-white and christian (latinos were their obvious choice, now burned to the ground) or someone white and non-christian (good luck with nonbelievers given the GOP policy preferences). They’ve pushed the procedural efforts as far as they can go – gerrymandering has been extremely successful for them, but they’ve hit its limits. They are vote suppressing as much as they can, but that too is hitting its limits. They’re trying to wring every drop out of the white christian voting base by going hardcore on christianist policy (which overlaps to a large degree with white supremacy), but they’ve actually gone so far as to turn off mormons. And if they continue down this path, they’ll turn off catholics next, and it’ll just continue to unravel.

    Bottom line is that they’re done. Some realized this after 2012, and tried to course correct for it. That lasted a week. More realize it now, but that may not last long either. Beck personally hit his acceptance moment somewhere in the middle of this. We’ll see how many can join him.

  133. 133.

    glory b

    @hovercraft: That was Charlie Cook’s prediction yesterday on msnbc. He called fro a Clinton win and a tied Senate, but also said N. Carolina and Missouri were too close (Senate wise) to call, but giving them to the Repubs made his even split,

  134. 134.

    Gelfling 545

    I watched the 08 & 12 elections with my sister along with my kids & hers. This year she says she’s taking a sleeping pill after dinner. She can’t stand this election any more. Probably I’ll just sneak peaks at results online.

  135. 135.

    trollhattan

    @D58826:
    Hilarious. They need to contact the Nerf people for development of some nice, affordable training rounds.
    At that price can’t they just fling cruise missiles instead? Why does it need to come out of a barrel?

  136. 136.

    rk

    I’m too freaked out to even think about celebrating. Too anxious and have been for a long time. Logically I know she’s supposed to win, but I won’t let out a breath till the results are declared. Maybe it’s because every woman friend I have is freaked out. I’ve been trying to reassure them, but we’re all anxious.

  137. 137.

    catclub

    @trollhattan: and yet she is STILL more qualified (and was far more qualified in 2008) than Trump and more willing to learn in order to do the job.

    I also see this as an example of how many doors being white, male, and rich opens, that are routinely shut to others.

  138. 138.

    Major Major Major Major

    @Mnemosyne:

    The CEO of the Giant Evil Corporation sent an email to all employees encouraging us to vote tomorrow. I don’t remember that happening in 2008 or 2012, but I’ve lost quite a bit of that email in system crashes.

    Wow, I wonder how many emails Crooked Mnemosyne deleted. Lock her up!

  139. 139.

    JCJ

    Chimay Blue – high alcohol by volume. Like Betty, to celebrate if a win or drown sorrows if the unthinkable.

  140. 140.

    catclub

    @Gelfling 545:

    Probably I’ll just sneak peaks at results online.

    much easier to go to a website – I like the NYT election website last time – no commentary.

  141. 141.

    catclub

    @Ivan X:

    and can be reached by nonstop from NYC. Does anyone here have any special insight as to where, particularly, I should head,

    Bermuda! Just in case.

  142. 142.

    Shana

    @Kay Eye: The Tim Kaine button with the smiley face and the eyebrow was what he used when he ran for governor, and senate I believe.

    I’m getting up at 4:45 to get to my precinct and set up. Hubby’s going to synagogue tomorrow night to say kaddish for his brother who killed himself a year ago. I won’t be done in time to go with him unfortunately. I hope to be able to stay awake long enough for the results.

  144. 144.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    I’m dubious about a GOP crack up, I think Paul Ryan will have one or two embarrassing votes before returning to the speakership, and he and John McCain will return to the Green Rooms of Sunday morning, but this is kind of interesting
    Oliver Darcy @ oliverdarcy
    Hannity again warning that a “day of reckoning” against Never Trumpers and media will take place

  145. 145.

    Percysowner

    @Latino J: It makes him more important than most Vice Presidents.

    I’m getting a bottle of something bubbly and ordering something in. I’ll celebrate if Hillary wins and get drunk if she doesn’t.

  147. 147.

    Peale

    @dexwood: not really surprised to find Hispanic Trump supporters. A lot of that “hispanics will vote Democrat 75-25” or “80-20” or whatever comes from the huge numbers of California and New York. Outside of those areas, the vote has tended to be a bit more evenly split between the parties. More 60-40 than 70-30

  148. 148.

    NCSteve

    I threw my first and last watch party the night I cast my very first vote, at age 18. The ‘rents had been foolish enough to leave me alone in the house for several days without dropping the standard “NO PARTIES!” admonishment because, hey, it’s not lie they were going to be gone over the weekend. We had a vast amount of beer and other alcoholic beverages, the accumulated leftovers of a summer of debauchery that our designated drunk driver had been stashing in an unattended fridge at his house.

    That was 1980. With the foolishness of youth, we had optimistically believed that the final polls showing Carter catching back up were a sign of that mythical media unicorn known as “momentum,” because, as a bunch of smart, politically obsessed teens, the idea that Ronald Fucking Reagan could ever be elected POTUS was inconceivable to us. By 8:00, it developed that that word didn’t mean what we thought it meant and the party descended into drunken sorrow.

    Never again.

  149. 149.

    aimai

    @Face: There are a lot of different kinds of hispanics/latinos in this country–not everyone identifies as or with recent immigrants or undocumented people, not everyone identifies with the poor.

  150. 150.

    NotMax

    Traditional familial table d’hôte for snackage during election watching vigil while growing up was large bowls of unshelled mixed nuts and several nutcrackers, accompanied by ice cold apple cider.

    As shall be keeping up with the returns solo, not worth going out to get those so instead will make use of whatever is already around the house. So far as a libation for this special occasion is concerned, perhaps the Mainbrace.

  151. 151.

    workworkwork

    My online class has a live streaming session tomorrow evening so I’ll be prepping for that. As for election results, I’m planning on avoiding network news until at least 01/20/2017.

    Life’s too short.

  152. 152.

    PatrickG

    It’s my sincere hope that when I get off duty in Nevada (poll observing again this year), the election will be over, and I won’t have to watch anything but victory reels and Fox News schadenfreude. Living on the West Coast is both blessing and curse that way.

  153. 153.

    Betty Cracker

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: A new poll (Survey Monkey, I think) has Murphy up by a point! That’s the only good news on that front I’ve heard in a week. Let’s hope he sends Lil’ Marco packing!

    @laura: Change of plans — I’m ditching my family and going to Laura’s!

  155. 155.

    Pete Downunder

    For those ex-pats living in the land down under, Democrats Abroad is having watch parties at least in Sydney at The Morrison Hotel and in Brisbane at the Pig & Whistle on Eagle Street on local Wednesday from 10:00 am (AEST). Check the website (linked above) for other possibilities. I’ll be at the Pig & Whistle.

  157. 157.

    Brachiator

    I didn’t get to vote early, so I will try to do so before going to work. In 2012, I voted after work, and there was a bit of a line.

    I’ll flip a coin and either hang out with some friends or (more likely) go home, go to bed early. Then in the morning, if I look out the window and he city is a burning hulk, then I will know that somehow, Trump managed to win.

    I jokingly referred to the California ballot prop 64, which would legalize pot. I actually read the text of the damn proposition to learn the effective date if the measure passes. No licenses will be granted to legal pot establishments until January 1, 2018, so 2017 looks like the wrong year to take up pot smoking.

  158. 158.

    bupalos

    I’m having a real hard time getting nervous about this. Sure there have been a lot of seeming ups and downs, but from the moment he announced as a white identity / populist candidate, the numbers have always said he had no real chance. It’s been a little surprising how hard the hard Republican support has been, considering Trump ran a clownish glitch-fest that at every turn has been best analyzed as fraud rather than campaign. And it’s truly amazing to see the extent to which pushing the Overton window always works to the bomb-throwers benefit in terms of media false-balance.

    But the reality is that we started with a structural 47-40 lead with maybe 12% of the population that was truly “undecided” in any real sense, and after all the race-baiting and pu$$y-grabbing and hippie-punching we’re probably ending things at about 50-44-4-2. And the good news is Trump didn’t drop out and kept embarrassing himself and the country, and the Repubs went ahead and clutched him to their droopy southern man-boobs anyway. My biggest fear when this all started is that they’d get away not paying a price for running him, and in the end the media would claim Trump was his own human/animal hybrid with equal amounts of R and D genes. That didn’t happen, and I bet Trump and the Freedumb Caucus loons end up being the gift that keeps giving.

  159. 159.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Gindy51: I love that show. I remember watching and thinking, “That guy playing Hearst is good, I wonder who that is.” I was shocked to see it was Gerald McRainey.

    We need a gif of Calamity Jane yelling “Shut the fuck up!” to post at NR

  160. 160.

    Steeplejack

    @trollhattan:

    Glad somebody got it! Kitty is an ex-racing greyhound, of which my brother has had a succession over the years. Also (not now) an Italian greyhound—​smaller than a whippet—​and, memorably, a shar pei who thought she was a greyhound with a glandular condition.

    When my brother got Kitty about six (?) years ago he was dithering on a name, so I convinced him that “Kitty” would be funny. And it’s a good “calling” name. But then of course nobody ever got the joke or mentioned it, so we just say it’s short for “Kathleen” (to be heard in the voice of Kathy Griffin’s mother) and let it go at that.

    I haven’t actually seen her around a cat, but she seems to have a low prey drive. She’ll be on the porch, see a squirrel in the backyard and track it visually, but she gets a look like “Yeah, I’m done with that shit.”

    She’s great with the kids, too. (Daughter just turned two, and the boy is seven months.)

  161. 161.

    Peale

    @greennotGreen: I think the threat is there that the Republicans have created a situation where the Democrats can never lose a presidential again without completely destroying the country. Seriously. Anyway, the issue isn’t that Democrats and Republicans are both too partisan now and the Elites have lost control of both parties. I don’t think that’s the case for the Democrats either. I guess we’ll have to test that some other time. But let’s look at what happened in New Jersey last cycle. There wasn’t any loyalty to the Democrat who won the primary and a lot of prominent Dems jumped ship. And she was for all intents and purposes a fairly standard Democrat. Its just that she was going to lose big. So much for coming around.

    I really would have to try to imagine who would get passed the current Democratic voters who would be the equivalent to Trump. We actually aren’t motivated by the same things. A truly anti-racist demagogue who was complaining that there were too many white people in this country and that all those white people needed to go back to where they came from. Perhaps a Native American meets anti-Gentrification person. On the economic front, the candidate pledged to not only regulate large global corporations but was so anti-corporate that any middle class college educated professional who worked for Disney might have second thoughts about staying in the party. Or someone who we originally thought found the banks to be a problem but as the campaign wore on we realized that what they hated about the banks was the fact that they were run by Jews and if we eliminated the Jews from the elite, we’d do just fine. I think we would be capable of abandoning that kind of candidate rather quickly. We might not be able to jettison them from the party, but Dem voters don’t have the same loyalty to their party that Republicans clearly have.

  164. 164.

    Ruckus

    No alcohol for me tomorrow, I plan to take it like a man. That means if tRump makes it I’ll lay in a corner, rolled up in a ball and whimper like a little kid who lost his favorite toy, even though what we will all lose is a lot worse than some stinking kids toy. With the other, much better outcome, I may go running through the streets yelling and screaming like a little kid who just found his favorite toy. There is precedent here, I ran through the ship yelling and screaming like that when I was told about my discharge from the navy. Of course I was younger then. So I won’t run as fast.

  166. 166.

    Roger Moore

    @? Martin:

    christianist policy (which overlaps to a large degree with white supremacy)

    They do not overlap; they are identical. Their Christianist beliefs were developed specifically to justify white supremacy; always remember that the Southern Baptist Convention split from the rest of the Baptists over the issue of slavery.

  167. 167.

    1,000 Flouncing Lurkers (was fidelioscabinet)

    I plan to watch hockey, and maybe drink champagne later.

    I expect the sportsball* to be cathartic.

    *Can I still call it sportsball if they aren’t using a ball?

  168. 168.

    Roger Moore

    @Robert Sneddon:

    It’s only 1457 days until the next Presidential election.

    And I’m sure we’ll start hearing speculation about who the Republicans will run against Hillary starting on Wednesday, possibly Tuesday evening.

  169. 169.

    J R in WV

    @David ?▶️?Blue Wall?▶️? Koch:

    You just don’t understand how to work those number correctly.

    First you pick the bottom two scores, both Clinton +3, Then you divide by 2, which gives you Clinton +1.5, half of three, right?… That’s really close, just a little more than Clinton +0, Which is really good for Trump.

    See how easy that was?

    We call that Republican statistics, it’s how they do budgeting too!!!

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