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You are here: Home / Politics / domestic terrorists / Tabeletop Presidenting

Tabeletop Presidenting

by John Cole|  November 7, 20169:08 am| 389 Comments

This post is in: domestic terrorists, Election 2016, Sociopaths

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alternatereality

I don’t know if there is a word for something that is both hilarious and horrifying, but were there such a word, I would use it to describe this:

Donald Trump’s cabinet-in-waiting is taking shape in the final days of the race, as aides eye a number of Trump loyalists for major posts should he win on Tuesday.

Among the names being considered, according to conversations with three campaign advisers who requested anonymity to speak freely: Rudy Giuliani for attorney general, Newt Gingrich for secretary of state, retired Lt. Gen Michael Flynn for defense secretary or national security adviser, Trump finance chairman Steve Mnuchin for Treasury secretary, and Republican National Committee finance chair Lew Eisenberg for commerce secretary.

Trump himself has not taken an active part in transition efforts, in part out of superstition: He fears too much planning before a victory might jinx the campaign. In 2012, he was shocked to read detailed stories on Mitt Romney’s preparations for the White House long before election day.

But wait, it gets better:

Reince Priebus, the current RNC chairman, is under consideration as Trump’s chief of staff. Priebus earned Trump’s trust over the course of the campaign by steadfastly defending him while other top Republicans denounced Trump or shied away from brand.

“They’re thinking, ‘We need to find that balance between someone who knows how Washington works and someone who shakes things up,'” the senior campaign adviser said.

***

If Priebus leaves the RNC, two close Trump allies could be considered to take his position. Trump’s team is talking about former campaign manager and current CNN contributor Corey Lewandowski or current deputy campaign manager David Bossie as possible options.

But sure, kids. Vote third party. Because principles.

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Reader Interactions

389Comments

  1. 1.

    Patricia Kayden

    November 7, 2016 at 9:11 am

    Sarah Palin, Secretary of Education.
    Scott Baio, Press Secretary
    Alex Jones, SCOTUS Justice

  2. 2.

    gene108

    November 7, 2016 at 9:12 am

    So Trump would stack his Cabinet full of Yes Men. If my existence is not at stake, I would be sort of curious how this plays out.

  3. 3.

    schrodinger's cat

    November 7, 2016 at 9:14 am

    I don’t think its the kids that are voting 3rd party. According to my anecdata the most diehard Berners were of boomer age.

  4. 4.

    Edward G. Talbot

    November 7, 2016 at 9:15 am

    Not that I want to have a Trump presidency to make it happen, but I would pay money for the entertainment value that Corey Lewandowski as RNC head would provide.

  5. 5.

    gene108

    November 7, 2016 at 9:16 am

    @Patricia Kayden:

    I would be entertained by Alex Jones as a Supreme Court Justice.

    I can see legal opinions flowing from whatever far reaches of his imagination he generates his drivel.

    Why, we cannot allow early voting because Satan has plotted with Ancient Aliens to use early voting to suck out our vital essences. And so forth.

  6. 6.

    schrodinger's cat

    November 7, 2016 at 9:17 am

    @Edward G. Talbot: He could still be the head of RNC if Trump loses, Republican party is the party of out and proud racists.

  7. 7.

    Jerzy Russian

    November 7, 2016 at 9:18 am

    I don’t know if there is a word for something that is both hilarious and horrifying

    For English speakers, I suggest hilarifying or horrilarious. If these won’t work, perhaps there is a good German words for this purpose?

  8. 8.

    amk

    November 7, 2016 at 9:19 am

    so, fat christie loses out even in this bizarre fantasy scene?

  9. 9.

    Patricia Kayden

    November 7, 2016 at 9:23 am

    @gene108: It would be … interesting.

    OT Kind of humorous that Trump thinks that the Redskins name is a winning issue for him.

  10. 10.

    Patricia Kayden

    November 7, 2016 at 9:24 am

    @amk: Bridge Gate = Christie may be in jail soon (HOPEFULLY).

  11. 11.

    Poopyman

    November 7, 2016 at 9:24 am

    “Domestic Terrorists” indeed

  12. 12.

    p.a.

    November 7, 2016 at 9:24 am

    @amk: Christie: Transportation. The jokes write themselves.

  13. 13.

    Felonius Monk

    November 7, 2016 at 9:25 am

    @efgoldman:

    and find out the whole damned thing was a nightmare inside a joke inside a fever dream.

    Oh that it were so.

    Good morning, efg. And, Good Morning everyone.

  14. 14.

    VOR

    November 7, 2016 at 9:26 am

    There is a right-wing meme floating around Facebook with the following suggestions:
    SecState: Newt Gingrich
    Att.General: Trey Gowdy
    SurgeonGen: Ben Carson
    HomelandSec: Rudy Giuliani
    Defense: Allen West
    Supreme Court: Jeanine Pirro
    Commission on Law Enforcement: David Clarke, Milwaukee Co. (WIS) Sheriff

    I’ve seen this meme go by several times so it seems to be circulating which means it has favor with a considerable group. Interesting Christ Christie is not their pick for Attorney General at this time.

  15. 15.

    Betty Cracker

    November 7, 2016 at 9:26 am

    In 2012, he was shocked to read detailed stories on Mitt Romney’s preparations for the White House long before election day.

    Exhibit Z [x infinity] of Trump’s manifest unfitness for the office. For starters, the federal government is an extraordinarily large organization with millions of employees. It’s straight-up malpractice not to make preparations to assume leadership of it. You’d think someone who built a “terrific company” with “thousands of employees” would comprehend that.

  16. 16.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    November 7, 2016 at 9:27 am

    My personal fantasy is Trump loses and just goes threw pretending he won anyway, appoints a cabinet and even hold meetings in the Trump Tower.

  17. 17.

    SenyorDave

    November 7, 2016 at 9:27 am

    Would be funny if not for the fact that there is a nonzero chance of this thing being elected president. In light of that it is horrifying. If he wins, would hope that the Dems go the mat on everything, including full court presses on the past of people like Newt Gingrich, how he was one step away from jail on his scams when he was Speaker of the House.

  18. 18.

    Tilda Swinton's Bald Cap

    November 7, 2016 at 9:27 am

    @Patricia Kayden: Everything you need to know about the Washington Racial Slurs and their execrable owner is here. It’s a funny article.

    And the only people who want to keep the name are the deplorables team fans who live in Virginia.

  19. 19.

    albertZ

    November 7, 2016 at 9:30 am

    Awfulsome

  20. 20.

    amk

    November 7, 2016 at 9:30 am

    @SenyorDave: Lot of things political (vendetta, skulduggery, beating down the media and so on) the dems could learn from the rethugs. It’s high time they started playing offence for a ‘change’.

  21. 21.

    Chet

    November 7, 2016 at 9:31 am

    Whatever happened to hiring “the best people?”

  22. 22.

    Rasputin's Evil Twin

    November 7, 2016 at 9:33 am

    I don’t know if there is a word for something that is both hilarious and horrifying.

    Try “Trump”. I works for me.

  23. 23.

    hovercraft

    November 7, 2016 at 9:33 am

    Hillary used the term deplorables prematurely.
    As despicable as HALF Trump’s supporters are, this cabinet would be deplorable.
    A racist AG
    A narcissist and a buffoon as Sec of State
    A Russia sympathizer as Sec of Defense
    A sycophant as Chief of Staff
    A moron as head of the RNC

    And those are the ones we know so far, I’m sure it gets worse.

    Okay I’m wrong about the deplorables, they are all deplorable, irredeemable.

  24. 24.

    Peale

    November 7, 2016 at 9:33 am

    I believe that is the basket, full of deplorables.

  25. 25.

    Woodrowfan

    November 7, 2016 at 9:33 am

    @schrodinger’s cat: I don’t think its the kids that are voting 3rd party. According to my anecdata the most diehard Berners were of boomer age.

    the ones who are still happy they voted for McCarthy instead of Humphrey in November 1968…

  26. 26.

    Rasputin's Evil Twin

    November 7, 2016 at 9:35 am

    @Enhanced Voting Techniques: I want him to retire to Mar- a- Logo/ Xanadu with a disabled Twitter account.

  27. 27.

    Chris

    November 7, 2016 at 9:35 am

    Amon Bundy for Homeland Security?

  28. 28.

    karen marie

    November 7, 2016 at 9:35 am

    @schrodinger’s cat: Early onset Alzheimer’s is a bitch.

  29. 29.

    different-church-lady

    November 7, 2016 at 9:37 am

    You know what’s really horrifying? NBC just reports this mater-of-factly, as though everything is normal, this is ordinary behavior, there’s no rhinoceros taking a crap in the corner…

  30. 30.

    Roger Moore

    November 7, 2016 at 9:37 am

    @Enhanced Voting Techniques:

    My personal fantasy is Trump loses and just goes threw pretending he won anyway, appoints a cabinet and even hold meetings in the Trump Tower.

    I’ve said before that I like the idea of a shadow cabinet, but usually they’re something you put together long before the election to show how much better you’d run things than the other party and so you have a cabinet ready if you win. I’ve never heard of one put together out of a mixture of spite and delusion.

  31. 31.

    different-church-lady

    November 7, 2016 at 9:38 am

    @Enhanced Voting Techniques: There might be a high chance of that. I doubt anyone on his staff is going to have the guts to tell him he lost.

  32. 32.

    karen marie

    November 7, 2016 at 9:39 am

    @amk: No, thank you.

  33. 33.

    Eric U.

    November 7, 2016 at 9:39 am

    @gene108: too bad you can’t branch an alternate universe and watch the disaster. If you thought the Bush white house was a disaster, that would make him look like a statesman

  34. 34.

    Barbara

    November 7, 2016 at 9:39 am

    @VOR: Chris Christie, who apparently never lets go of any slight but holds grudges forever, seems to think that the rest of humanity is comprised of all-forgiving saints. As I have come to understand the state of play, the man whose father he sent to prison has more sway over Donald Trump than nearly anyone else except for that man’s wife, Ivanka Trump. So I would imagine that Christie’s elevation to any position of importance by Trump would be over Jared Kushner’s dead body. I mean, seriously, how could Christie be so situationally unaware of this? He had more chance being appointed to something by Clinton than Trump.

  35. 35.

    different-church-lady

    November 7, 2016 at 9:39 am

    @Roger Moore:

    I’ve never heard of one put together out of a mixture of spite and delusion.

    Not to mention one with zero involvement from the candidate.

  36. 36.

    Aleta

    November 7, 2016 at 9:39 am

    Another cool part is that taxpayers must pay the salaries of Trump’s transition team for their brainwork, because of some law that was passed awhile ago. I suppose the team is housed at a certain conveniently located DC hotel.

  37. 37.

    karen marie

    November 7, 2016 at 9:40 am

    @Chris: Secretary of the Interior.

  38. 38.

    Tilda Swinton's Bald Cap

    November 7, 2016 at 9:40 am

    @different-church-lady: That’s because NBC is failed institution as a new organization but a successful revenue generator for Comcast.

  39. 39.

    Punchy

    November 7, 2016 at 9:40 am

    @amk: Gunna be hard to be Cabinet-ting from the pokie.

  40. 40.

    hovercraft

    November 7, 2016 at 9:40 am

    @Betty Cracker:
    He doesn’t believe in your planning, he has the best mind, and the best words, he will trust his guts the day after the election and pull names out of his ass. With good old Corey back at his side he’ll name a full cabinet and heads of all the agencies in an hour. He knows people, and he puts people in the right jobs.
    Evidence to the contrary not withstanding.

  41. 41.

    OzarkHillbilly

    November 7, 2016 at 9:41 am

    @Betty Cracker: Somebody who built a terrific company with thousands of employees would comprehend that, but Trump is not that person..

  42. 42.

    Tilda Swinton's Bald Cap

    November 7, 2016 at 9:41 am

    @Tilda Swinton’s Bald Cap: I meant to say “successful entertainment revenue generator.”

  43. 43.

    different-church-lady

    November 7, 2016 at 9:41 am

    @Eric U.:

    too bad you can’t branch an alternate universe and watch the disaster.

    NATE SILVER RAN 500 SIMULATIONS, AND EXACTLY HALF OF THEM HAD THAT VERY CABINET!!!!

  44. 44.

    Dork

    November 7, 2016 at 9:42 am

    And you know it’s Dr. Harold Bornstein as Surgeon General.

  45. 45.

    ...now I try to be amused

    November 7, 2016 at 9:43 am

    @efgoldman: I can see a TV series being made of this, like an evil bizzarro West Wing.

  46. 46.

    different-church-lady

    November 7, 2016 at 9:43 am

    @Aleta:

    …Trump’s transition team for their brainwork…

    Assumes work not in evidence.

  47. 47.

    Patricia Kayden

    November 7, 2016 at 9:43 am

    @Enhanced Voting Techniques: If that meant that Trump and his sycophants spent all of their time “governing” from Trump Towers and only made appearances on Fox News, I’d be all for it. Sounds like a great plan.

  48. 48.

    TS

    November 7, 2016 at 9:44 am

    Hahahaha – On MSNBC – showing NC GOTV group, according to the reporter, working for Trump – 6 or 7 old guys in a room with a big sign for McCrory – no signs for Trump

  49. 49.

    different-church-lady

    November 7, 2016 at 9:44 am

    @Dork: But Ben Carson is an actual surgeon!

  50. 50.

    bystander

    November 7, 2016 at 9:44 am

    I hope we have a President Clinton who can call on Senate Majority Leader Schumer and Speaker of the House Pelosi to meet her in the WH to discuss an investigation into the extent of Putin’s infiltration of the FBI and Guiliani and Chaffetz’s contact with them. Better than working on my Christmas wish list.

  51. 51.

    Keith P.

    November 7, 2016 at 9:45 am

    @different-church-lady: I wonder how Silver got past all the DivideByZero errors.

  52. 52.

    Nina

    November 7, 2016 at 9:46 am

    On the other hand, I have the feeling that Hillary’s staff has a full list of contingencies for each Cabinet position, each sub-Cabinet position, each agency, all the courts. Plus they have some sort of super Gantt chart plan with dates to roll out each announcement, with contingencies for delays or BS manufactured scandals.

  53. 53.

    Eric S.

    November 7, 2016 at 9:47 am

    @VOR:

    Defense: Allen West

    I briefly read that as Adam West. Comic relief Batman sends fitting.

  54. 54.

    different-church-lady

    November 7, 2016 at 9:48 am

    @Nina: I’m sure they do.

    What they don’t have is a bunch of people babbling to the press about it.

  55. 55.

    Barbara

    November 7, 2016 at 9:49 am

    @Nina: They might even know which current appointees would be willing to stay on for a while.

  56. 56.

    catclub

    November 7, 2016 at 9:50 am

    @Enhanced Voting Techniques: Approval, Cut of jib, newsletter interest, et cetera…

  57. 57.

    Major Major Major Major

    November 7, 2016 at 9:51 am

    HRC’s party doesn’t seem very fun to play with. Lots of lawful good. Low-energy, sad!

    –HRC: Lawful good paladin
    –Kaine: Lawful good cleric
    –Podesta: Chaotic good ranger
    –Huma: Lawful good fighter
    –Barack: Lawful good paladin

    Secondary characters:
    –Bernie: Lawful good sorcerer; foil
    –Bill: Chaotic good rogue that shows up from time to time as a DMPC to shake the story up

  58. 58.

    OzarkHillbilly

    November 7, 2016 at 9:51 am

    @different-church-lady: Proof that you don’t have to be a rocket scientist to be a brain surgeon.

  59. 59.

    hovercraft

    November 7, 2016 at 9:52 am

    @Eric S.:
    Allen West is a grotesque human being.

  60. 60.

    Face

    November 7, 2016 at 9:52 am

    Real question: Can Las Hillerino appoint Bill for a Cabinet position, or that that disallowed? Alternatively, can she appoint him as a diplomat or something sub-Cabinet? Yeah, he’s looking a bit frail, but damn does he have the experience and the ability to jaw-wag. At least in the beginning, having him smooth relations with allies would be extremely helpful.

  61. 61.

    Aleta

    November 7, 2016 at 9:53 am

    Dr. Hannibal Lecter will be needed for White House Chef

  62. 62.

    catclub

    November 7, 2016 at 9:53 am

    Dos the article even mention that the guy Trump appointed to be chief of transition is Christie. Or is that down the memory hole?

  63. 63.

    Major Major Major Major

    November 7, 2016 at 9:54 am

    @Keith P.: Whenever his program has any sort of error he just calls it a Trump victory rather than debugging it. That might explain it.

  64. 64.

    TS

    November 7, 2016 at 9:54 am

    @different-church-lady: They just had a great surrogate for Hillary on MSNBC – no matter how much they tried to bring in the emails, the FBI and Comey – she said Hillary was focused on the election & wasn’t thinking about such things.

  65. 65.

    WereBear

    November 7, 2016 at 9:55 am

    A Confederacy of Dunces, indeed.

  66. 66.

    Felonius Monk

    November 7, 2016 at 9:56 am

    Hopefully, Election Night coverage on NBC will segue into an episode of The Biggest Loser starring Donald Trump. They can call it The Yu-u-u-u-gest Loser. And it won’t be about losing weight, although the Donald would be a good candidate for that.

  67. 67.

    MomSense

    November 7, 2016 at 9:56 am

    @Major Major Major Major:

    Nice. I’m sending that to my kids. They’ve had discussions about this.

  68. 68.

    BruceJ

    November 7, 2016 at 9:56 am

    @Enhanced Voting Techniques: And ends up in 15 years holed up in his penthouse suite paranoid and alone, saving his urine in bottles and with fingernails 6″ long…

  69. 69.

    O. Felix Culpa

    November 7, 2016 at 9:56 am

    Sheriff Joe Arpaio: FBI?

    ETA: Comey is clearly too much in the tank for Hillary, since the Trump-promised indictment failed to materialize. So both sides agree – he has to go.

  70. 70.

    Waldo

    November 7, 2016 at 9:57 am

    @different-church-lady:

    I doubt anyone on his staff is going to have the guts to tell him he lost.

    They’ll be too busy racing to the bank to cash their checks.

  71. 71.

    albertZ

    November 7, 2016 at 9:57 am

    @Eric S.: Don’t laugh. Adam West is Mayor of Quahog after all.

  72. 72.

    The Moar You Know

    November 7, 2016 at 9:58 am

    We’ve seen plenty of examples of what happens when a government goes down this path:

    North Korea
    Zimbabwe
    Uganda
    Iran

    and of course 1930s Germany, although I hesitate to slander the Nazis by comparison because at least they had a plan that involved a bit more than “stealing everything that isn’t nailed down”.

  73. 73.

    Chris

    November 7, 2016 at 9:59 am

    @O. Felix Culpa:

    ICE.

    And Comey for the Internal Affairs equivalent of some government department or other.

  74. 74.

    Major Major Major Major

    November 7, 2016 at 9:59 am

    I just watched the video that AL posted downstairs and for the first time it really hit me–holy shit, we’re about to do this!

    @MomSense: I mean they don’t even have a wizard! Robby Mook, maybe, with a focus on divination spells?

  75. 75.

    Eric U.

    November 7, 2016 at 10:00 am

    @Keith P.: divide by zero is basically why the LA Times poll is so flaky. There was an article about one AA Trump supporter that radically changed their numbers. He dropped out of the sample one time and they fell in line with everyone else.

    @Waldo: I’m reminded of rMoney’s campaign staff finding out their campaign credit cards were cancelled on the way home that night

  76. 76.

    burnspbesq

    November 7, 2016 at 10:01 am

    @Rasputin’s Evil Twin:

    retire to Mar- a- Logo/

    Surprising that it hasn’t happened already. Because of the state’s unlimited homestead exemption, establishing Florida residence is a standard part of pre-bankruptcy planning for high net worth individuals.

  77. 77.

    OzarkHillbilly

    November 7, 2016 at 10:02 am

    @O. Felix Culpa: ICE.

  78. 78.

    OzarkHillbilly

    November 7, 2016 at 10:04 am

    @Chris: I figured somebody would beat me to it.

  79. 79.

    billcoop4

    November 7, 2016 at 10:04 am

    @Major Major Major Major:

    HRC is more chaotic good, I think. Deontology is overrated.

    BC

  80. 80.

    peach flavored shampoo

    November 7, 2016 at 10:05 am

    @TS: I’m still stunned they’ve all but forgotten to bring up Hillghazi. A slight majority of sentient Americans understand the complete nothingburger that it is, but the other ~45% do not, and nothing rallies the base more than such bullshit.

    Seriously, has Hillghazi even come up at all, in any stump speeches by DT?

  81. 81.

    bystander

    November 7, 2016 at 10:07 am

    For those who missed it, the NYTimes featured a front page article about how Clinton’s appointees will all have baggage. Luckily, each of Trump’s appointees appears to be stellar and unsullied.

  82. 82.

    burnspbesq

    November 7, 2016 at 10:08 am

    @Face:

    I dont think it’s likely to happen, but U.S. Trade Representative might be a good spot to stash Bill. Or there are five ABA-accredited law schools in DC, any one of which might be quietly prevailed upon to create a Distinguished Visiting Professor slot for him.

    My guess is that Trump would pardon Wesley Snipes in order to appoint him as Commissioner of the IRS.

  83. 83.

    The Moar You Know

    November 7, 2016 at 10:10 am

    It’s been fun watching my local vile congresscritter, car alarm hawker Darrel Issa, run away from Trump and the GOP as hard as he can. Our mayor – a Republican who will no longer admit she is one – actually sent out a flyer comparing her Dem opponent to Trump. And that’s not the only example I’ve seen from my local Republicans in this election.

    The guy is radioactive in California.

  84. 84.

    schrodinger's cat

    November 7, 2016 at 10:10 am

    @O. Felix Culpa: No he will head ICE.

  85. 85.

    Major Major Major Major

    November 7, 2016 at 10:12 am

    @billcoop4: Could spin it either way really.

  86. 86.

    Punchy

    November 7, 2016 at 10:12 am

    Haven’t checked Teh Twittarz, but can I assume the RWNJs have gone the full 360 on Comey? Hated him ferociously in July, loved the shit outta him a week ago, and now, I’m presuming, they passionately hate him again?

    It’s got to be great being a GOP polly in this MSM era, where any feelings or sentiment you have can be switched on a dime and not one pundit will call such bullshit out.

  87. 87.

    gogol's wife

    November 7, 2016 at 10:12 am

    @bystander:

    I hate the New York Times with the fire of a thousand suns. I can’t even read the Arts pages any more. This morning it’s about how the concert with Beyonce “reeked of political desperation.”

  88. 88.

    Patricia Kayden

    November 7, 2016 at 10:13 am

    @Tilda Swinton’s Bald Cap:

    “Ewwwww!”: How Barbara Hyde, spokeswoman for the American Society for Microbiology, reacted to last year’s news that Snyder’s vendors were selling beer in the bathrooms. Fans had been alleging that the Redskins were hawking lager in the loo long before a YouTube video surfaced in October 2009. Hyde said that because microbiological bad actors like E. coli hang out in the men’s room, beer vendors shouldn’t.

    Yuck!!

  89. 89.

    GregB

    November 7, 2016 at 10:14 am

    Has Trump propsed a cabinet level position for Secretsry of Ratf*cking?

    I nominate Roger Stone.

  90. 90.

    Patricia Kayden

    November 7, 2016 at 10:16 am

    @gogol’s wife: What about Ted Nugent’s pro-Trump concert last night? Was that a sign that Trump is desperate?

    Beyoncé’s concert was a brilliant outreach to voters.

  91. 91.

    WaterGirl

    November 7, 2016 at 10:16 am

    Hopefully there will be some politics free threads today.

    In college I would study hard for an exam, but at some point more studying would not help anymore, it would actually do the opposite. That’s where I am today. Reading the threads this morning is making me more wound up. Time for me to walk away. See you guys tomorrow. Stay cool.

    I’ll check in periodically today, hoping for the occasional thread unrelated to the election.

  92. 92.

    Comrade Scrutinizer

    November 7, 2016 at 10:16 am

    @The Moar You Know: A very big part of NSDAP governance revolved explicitly around stealing everything that wasn’t tied down, particularly from non-Aryans.

  93. 93.

    jeffreyw

    November 7, 2016 at 10:18 am

    @Patricia Kayden:
    I does most efficiently shorten the “drink a beer —> gotta pee” cycle.

  94. 94.

    O. Felix Culpa

    November 7, 2016 at 10:18 am

    @schrodinger’s cat:

    No he [Arpaio] will head ICE.

    Of course! More coffee is needed to think as clearly as you, Chris, and OzarkH. Thanks all for your superior HR deployment. :)

  95. 95.

    hovercraft

    November 7, 2016 at 10:18 am

    @TS:
    The surrogate was Christina Schockey, whose sister Beth Schokey is a big GOP strategist/fundraiser who is supporting Hillary this year because she is sane.
    Christina is very well spoken and always remains calm, keeps a smile on, and does not deviate from her talking points.

  96. 96.

    Dork

    November 7, 2016 at 10:19 am

    @schrodinger’s cat: what if we had Vanilla Ice head ICE? Or Ice Cube? Ice-T? Branding opps are yuuuuge.

    #ICELivesMatter

  97. 97.

    Patricia Kayden

    November 7, 2016 at 10:19 am

    @The Moar You Know:

    The guy is radioactive in California.

    California has really done a good job of shutting Repubs completely out of their politics at the state level. Bravo!!

  98. 98.

    schrodinger's cat

    November 7, 2016 at 10:19 am

    @gogol’s wife: Trump must have something on Sulzberger, NYT has been the worst MSM outfit covering the election.

  99. 99.

    peach flavored shampoo

    November 7, 2016 at 10:20 am

    Fans had been alleging that the Redskins were hawking lager in the loo

    I’d like to marry that sentence fragment. Maaaahvelous.

  100. 100.

    gogol's wife

    November 7, 2016 at 10:22 am

    @Patricia Kayden:

    It’s as if no political candidate ever held a pop/rock concert on the eve of an election before! If it’s Hillary, it must be a sign of desperation!

  101. 101.

    OzarkHillbilly

    November 7, 2016 at 10:23 am

    Kevin Drum gets a dig in at the Donald’s expense: A Final Pre-Election Report on the Economy

    Check out the last graph.

  102. 102.

    gogol's wife

    November 7, 2016 at 10:23 am

    @WaterGirl:

    I find that alternating Shirley Temple videos with the “Holy s–t” video on a constant loop is helping my blood pressure.

  103. 103.

    MisterForkbeard

    November 7, 2016 at 10:25 am

    @gogol’s wife: Oh. Did they forget to mention that the appearances were wildly successful and that previous candidates had also appeared with well-known celebrities? :)

  104. 104.

    Major Major Major Major

    November 7, 2016 at 10:26 am

    @WaterGirl: I pretty much have felt like this for a day or so, maybe two. Let’s all roll dungeons and dragons characters! Dibs on Podesta. Some sort of politically inspired play-by-post game with y’all would be fun I’ll bet.

  105. 105.

    Punchy

    November 7, 2016 at 10:27 am

    @gogol’s wife: Incredibly (and inexplicably), the NYT has a “Percent to win” graphic that was at 84% for HRC before yesterday. And yet today, after Comey’s mea culpa, it hasn’t changed by a single digit, despite all other quantifiable metrics (like my go-to, the current offshore betting lines) skyrocketing in HRC’s direction.

    Either they’re slow to update it, or it’s complete bullshit. No way could yesterday’s pronouncement not shift the race at least a few percentage points. It’s now clear to me to ignore the NYT going forward. Credibility, it has none.

  106. 106.

    different-church-lady

    November 7, 2016 at 10:28 am

    @Barbara: Cormey’s a lock to stay on for… HEY, WHY DID YOU SLAP ME?

  107. 107.

    schrodinger's cat

    November 7, 2016 at 10:28 am

    @WaterGirl: Drama Queen, catchy beat, hot Sid. MTV meets Bollywood meets Grease, in this number.

  108. 108.

    Major Major Major Major

    November 7, 2016 at 10:29 am

    @Punchy: uh, their analysis is based on polls

  109. 109.

    Iowa Old Lady

    November 7, 2016 at 10:30 am

    That list of potential cabinet members is so outlandish that I’m having trouble believing someone isn’t playing a joke.

  110. 110.

    D58826

    November 7, 2016 at 10:32 am

    @Patricia Kayden: And Putin as National Security advisor/CIA director. I’m sure he is up to doing both jobs

  111. 111.

    different-church-lady

    November 7, 2016 at 10:33 am

    @Felonius Monk: They’re going to pivot directly into UNFAITHFUL ELECTORS!!! mode. Bank it, libtards!

  112. 112.

    Amir Khalid

    November 7, 2016 at 10:34 am

    I can very easily imagine some 22nd century historian writing a book about President Trump’s Cabinet line-up: Team of Wackadoodles.

  113. 113.

    different-church-lady

    November 7, 2016 at 10:35 am

    @Waldo: Oh you kidder — Trump isn’t going to give them any more checks.

  114. 114.

    Mike J

    November 7, 2016 at 10:35 am

    Jason Sparks ‏@sparksjls 24 minutes ago Orlando, FL
    Whoa, Florida: “36 percent of the 907,000 Latinos who have voted this year didn’t vote at all in 2012.”

  115. 115.

    Major Major Major Major

    November 7, 2016 at 10:35 am

    @different-church-lady: those two fuckers in Washington state. I don’t know how a reporter can interview them without punching them.

  116. 116.

    dmsilev

    November 7, 2016 at 10:36 am

    @schrodinger’s cat: The NYT has hated hated hated the Clintons since the early 90s. Why, I don’t know, but it’s pretty thoroughly embedded in their culture, without any need for an assist from Trump.

  117. 117.

    different-church-lady

    November 7, 2016 at 10:36 am

    @Eric U.:

    There was an article about one AA Trump supporter that radically changed their numbers.

    The irony here being that article was by… (wait for it…) Nate Silver.

  118. 118.

    Punchy

    November 7, 2016 at 10:37 am

    @Major Major Major Major: So do I assume there’s no movement due to no new polls this close to the election? Or that polls themselves didnt move? The former is reasonable, the latter is impossible to believe.

    And yes, I do find myself asking myself, “Self, why do you fucking care if it reads 84% or 88%?”. This election has messed with me.

    Sigh.

  119. 119.

    sunny raines

    November 7, 2016 at 10:38 am

    I don’t know if there is a word for something that is both hilarious and horrifying

    try “republican”

    also works for the locus of ignorant, hypocrite, bigot, misogynist, violent, authoritarian, clown.

  120. 120.

    different-church-lady

    November 7, 2016 at 10:39 am

    @Mike J: [does quick math…] Yeah, 325k is quite plausibly plenty to tip Florida.

  121. 121.

    Dork

    November 7, 2016 at 10:40 am

    @Mike J: Doesn’t “Latinos” in FL cover “Cubans”, which historically vote GOP? So I’m not sure this uptick in Latino voters can be assumed to greatly help the Hillbot. Of course, I cannot see why Cubans would be so arsed to suddenly vote for the first time for the Mango Mussolini.

  122. 122.

    dmsilev

    November 7, 2016 at 10:40 am

    @Punchy: That’s their poll-driven analysis. The polls haven’t changed much in the last few days, so neither has the prediction.

    At this point, though, what those probabilities are really saying is what chance that particular model has of there being a systematic error in all the polling. If all the polls are more or less correct, Clinton wins. If the polls are (for instance) missing a substantial increase in the Hispanic vote, Clinton wins big. If the polls are missing the “missing white votes”, well then maybe Trump wins. Sam Wang and HuffPo are confident that the polls are correct, the Upshot (NYT) is fairly confident that they’re correct, and Nate Silver thinks that the uncertainties dominate over everything else.

  123. 123.

    hovercraft

    November 7, 2016 at 10:41 am

    Steve Schale’s Final Recap of Florida

    Thank God America, we have damn near made it. Like the weed that I can’t get to stop growing up the side of my back yard fence, admit it, you thought this would never end…….

    The lines at noon were already quite long, so it came as no surprise that Orange County (Orlando) set a turnout record. And so did Osceola, and Hillsborough, Broward, Palm Beach, Duval, Leon, Pinellas, and yes, Miami Dade.

    In fact, Miami Dade had more people vote today than 33 counties have had vote in this entire election. The more than 760K people who voted in early voting is equal to almost 88% of the entire vote cast in the 2012 election. If Election Day turnout is just half of what it was in 2012, more than 1 million people will vote in Dade. I had it estimated at 900K, as did most people I spoke with………

    Total Vote By Mail: 2,549,633 (41.5%)

    Total Early Vote: 3,869,521 (58.5%)

    Democrats: 2,558.072 (39.85%)

    Republicans: 2,470,823 (38.49%)

    NPA: 1,390,259 (21.66%)

    Total Margin: DEM +1.36%

    How big is the final weekend for Dems?

    Friday: Dems +0.13 (+7K)

    Saturday: Dems +0.59 (+32K)

    Sunday: Dems +1.36 (+87K)

    …….. As of Saturday, Democrats had an egde of more than 175K low propensity voters.

    Secondly, we began to see the edging upward of NPA voters. I had projected NPA at 21% of the electorate, but it will probably land closer to 23. And it is really diverse, running an average of four points more diverse than the electorate as a whole.

    So you end up with this scenario — a fairly close partisan break, but below that, you saw surging Hispanic, surging NPA, and growing proof that the electorate would be more diverse than it was in 2012. Then we also learn that a large chunk of the GOP advantage was built with voters who were registered Dems in 2012 (though almost certainly not Dem Voters), as well as the GOP having cannibalized more of its own Election Day vote, and I began to realize this was looking better each day.

    On that diversity issue, just since last week, the percentage of the electorate that’s white has gone from 71 then over the last few days from 68.6 to 68.0, to 67.4, to 66.8. Since Thursday, there has been no day when the electorate has been more than 61% white. This is the Clinton recipe for winning……

    So as long as everyone gets out to vote tomorrow, we look to be in good shape. GOTV

  124. 124.

    bystander

    November 7, 2016 at 10:41 am

    @gogol’s wife: Wel, you have to admit that Trump didn’t resort to bringing in major stars to campaign with him. Tonight’s appearance with Springsteen may cause some real butthurt at the Times. Let’s hope.

  125. 125.

    Major Major Major Major

    November 7, 2016 at 10:42 am

    @Punchy: at this point any model worth its salt (so basically not 538) is going to essentially disregard last-day polling fluctuations because of various weightings and averages. One day of polls shouldn’t change a projection much at all in the first place; doubly so when a significant portion of people have already voted.

  126. 126.

    catclub

    November 7, 2016 at 10:42 am

    @The Moar You Know:

    The guy is radioactive in California.

    It really is amazing how different California is from the rest of the country on this. something like 66-23 in favor of Hillary.
    The rest of the country is closer to 55-45.

  127. 127.

    dmsilev

    November 7, 2016 at 10:42 am

    @different-church-lady: No, that came from Nate Cohn at the NYT.

  128. 128.

    D58826

    November 7, 2016 at 10:43 am

    @MisterForkbeard: But But, according to a Trump surrogate Jay-z has a video where protester throw a mozel tov cocktail at the police. Ovey. That one almost makes up for all the rest of this horrible political season.

  129. 129.

    J R in WV

    November 7, 2016 at 10:43 am

    @Patricia Kayden:

    Who would buy beer in the bathroom? Yuck!! Even in an emergency of losing NO !

  130. 130.

    Barbara

    November 7, 2016 at 10:46 am

    @gogol’s wife: His editorializing on the concert for Hillary (which was, OMFG, a brilliant strategic move on the part of her campaign poobahs) felt perfunctory and out of place and marred what was actually a pretty interesting view of Beyonce’s performance at the CMA with the Dixie Chicks. How each of them was a subversive presence at the CMA in their own way. I am guessing that being from Texas has made Beyonce highly familiar with country music. Any demonstration of that kind of familiarity seems to shock a lot of whites. Gasp! We live in the same society! When, in fact, it is totally understandable that Beyonce (or Bon Jovi) can easily slot herself into a country music performance. It raises the possibility that white people don’t actually “own” country music.

  131. 131.

    different-church-lady

    November 7, 2016 at 10:46 am

    @peach flavored shampoo: OT, but one of my favorite Goon Show exchanges goes like this:

    SEAGOON: Where is the piano?
    MORIARTY: It’s in the Louvre.
    SEAGOON: [pause…] Strange tastes you have…

  132. 132.

    scott (the other one)

    November 7, 2016 at 10:47 am

    @schrodinger’s cat: Yup. Younger voters have already learned that, generally speaking, they’re not getting their first choice in life, so they make the best of what they can get. (Anecdotal evidence, yadda.)

  133. 133.

    liberal

    November 7, 2016 at 10:47 am

    @Punchy:

    No way could yesterday’s pronouncement not shift the race at least a few percentage points.

    You’re wrong. The consensus among people who really study these things is that that announcement would have at most a small effect, definitely not “a few percentage points”.

  134. 134.

    hovercraft

    November 7, 2016 at 10:50 am

    Louie Gohmert Is Livid That Hillary Clinton Won’t Face Charges
    He could be brought in as the new Director of the FBI, to clean house, as he says there is precedent for firing Comey, and Louie knows what needs to be done.

  135. 135.

    different-church-lady

    November 7, 2016 at 10:51 am

    @dmsilev: I plead insanity. Can I go to my room now?

  136. 136.

    The Moar You Know

    November 7, 2016 at 10:51 am

    No way could yesterday’s pronouncement not shift the race at least a few percentage points.

    @Punchy: Have you ever even met a Republican?

    Comey’s chickenshit Sunday announcement isn’t going to change one goddamn thing.

  137. 137.

    Major Major Major Major

    November 7, 2016 at 10:51 am

    @J R in WV: I am now of the opinion that “an emergency” is the plural noun for “losing”. A covey of quail, an emergency of losing…

    @liberal: well that doesn’t sound very entertaining.

  138. 138.

    Lizzy L

    November 7, 2016 at 10:55 am

    I’m signed up to do two hours of phone calls for Hilz today, one late morning hour, one mid-afternoon hour. I’m pretty confident in the win, except for that small knot of nerves that keeps freaking out. It pops up like The Joker and screams Trump Wins! at me, and I throw rocks at it and yell “Back in your cave, troll!” I spent the weekend doing Other Stuff, which was very restorative and reminded me that the world keeps turning w/o my hand on the crank.

  139. 139.

    Roger Moore

    November 7, 2016 at 10:56 am

    @Comrade Scrutinizer:

    A very big part of NSDAP governance revolved explicitly around stealing everything that wasn’t tied down, particularly from non-Aryans.

    They also stole a lot of stuff that was tied down, like Austria and the Sudetenland.

  140. 140.

    Face

    November 7, 2016 at 10:56 am

    Nate Silver thinks that the uncertainties dominate over everything else

    Unfuckinbelievable. So the guy who ostensibly owns his rep based on rigorous statistical analysis and proprietary 11-dimensional ANOVA and whisker-box plots is now going The Full Sergeant Schultz? What a f’in cowardly shitbag. Nothing says “mathematical modeling” like “uncertainties, bitch”.

    Somebody get Mr. Silver a nice bag of salted dicks to devour.

  141. 141.

    Calouste

    November 7, 2016 at 10:57 am

    @Barbara: Good musicians can play any kind of music, they just don’t always choose to. Heck, I’m just listening to the Clash doing gospel. And of course country is in general not one of the most technically challenging kinds of music.

  142. 142.

    Major Major Major Major

    November 7, 2016 at 10:58 am

    @Face: the entire internet has been emailing him salted dicks all weekend so we’re already on that.

  143. 143.

    MomSense

    November 7, 2016 at 11:03 am

    @Major Major Major Major:

    Jess is the wizard with her text message spells that cause all of us to jump into action and send all our money!

  144. 144.

    Punchy

    November 7, 2016 at 11:05 am

    @The Moar You Know: It doesn’t have to turn Rs into Ds. It just needs to turn “unlikely to vote” Ds into “likely to vote” Ds. Isn’t that really the biggest issue with Comey’s first letter, in that it made the less enthusiastic voters less likely to cast votes for HRC?

  145. 145.

    amk

    November 7, 2016 at 11:05 am

    Jessica Valenti ‏@JessicaValenti 2h2 hours ago

    Jessica Valenti Retweeted Joshua Green

    Little does the Trump campaign know, we all synced up our cycles so that we’re PMSing tomorrow

    Joshua Green Verified [email protected]

    Trump official on tomorrow’s turnout: “It’s like predicting your wife’s mood. You have no idea what you’re going to get until you get home”

  146. 146.

    Calouste

    November 7, 2016 at 11:08 am

    @Face: A poster at Sam Wang’s side mentioned that s/he has gone through all of Silver predictions for Senate and President in 2012 and 2014 where the favorite had less than 90% chance to win. The average chance to win Silver gave them was 75%, but 89% of them actually won. It’s pretty clear that Silver is overestimating the uncertainties. No way Trump has a 13% chance to win Delaware.

    Btw, both HuffPo and DKos have predictions, and they are both more certain (i.e. higher percentages for the predicted winners) than Sam Wang.

  147. 147.

    Matt McIrvin

    November 7, 2016 at 11:08 am

    @Punchy: There’s a huge storm of polls landing right now. But most of them have survey periods that go back at least three or four days, ending yesterday. Most of the polling would have been before Comey’s “never mind”, which hit the news yesterday. We’re going to run out of time before most of them can fully accommodate the effect of that news; we’ll see it in the election returns if there’s anything.

    And I think the NYT model mostly uses state polls, which for any given state are less frequent than national ones, so there’s a greater lag in state aggregates.

  148. 148.

    Major Major Major Major

    November 7, 2016 at 11:09 am

    @Punchy: Comey’s letter didn’t do shit to Hillary’s vote share. Might have a minor impact down-ballot. He should still be strung up by his fingernails though.

    @MomSense: I hope Trump rolls a 1 on his voter intimidation check
    (THIS IS A HUMOROUS REFERENCE)

  149. 149.

    Eric U.

    November 7, 2016 at 11:10 am

    @Punchy: one thing I learned when I was dabbling in day trading is that investors are really bad at predicting the future and almost always overreact. I made quite a bit of money from that understanding, in combination with my ability to figure out what stupid people were going to do with their money. But I don’t put much weight on markets or gamblers when it comes to their reaction to political news. I think the markets reacting so strongly is funny though.

  150. 150.

    Anoniminous

    November 7, 2016 at 11:12 am

    @Punchy:

    The only known affect of Comey’s letter was to give Clinton her biggest funding day since the convention. Everything else is speculation.

  151. 151.

    catclub

    November 7, 2016 at 11:13 am

    @Calouste:

    And of course country is in general not one of the most technically challenging kinds of music.

    You could have knocked me over with a feather.

  152. 152.

    Major Major Major Major

    November 7, 2016 at 11:13 am

    @Anoniminous:

    Everything else is speculation.

    Null hypothesis is looking pretty good actually.

  153. 153.

    imonlylurking

    November 7, 2016 at 11:14 am

    @Major Major Major Major: Who would be the DM? I bet my roommate still has her Dice.

  154. 154.

    catclub

    November 7, 2016 at 11:14 am

    @Anoniminous: ahem.
    Google finance headline:

    Stocks, Dollar Rally After FBI Says It Won’t Charge Clinton
    Wall Street Journal – 6 hours ago

  155. 155.

    karen marie

    November 7, 2016 at 11:15 am

    @Major Major Major Major: I am not understanding all the Silver/538 hate. I have appreciated that he’s been cautious in analyzing the numbers. This election needs super turnout. Excessive optimism depresses the vote. People shrug and say “I don’t need to vote.” As we all know, elections are often won by small margins.

  156. 156.

    Punchy

    November 7, 2016 at 11:18 am

    @Matt McIrvin: Damn good point. I forgot to realize that polls released today would have closed likely prior to yesterday’s announcement. Thanks for that tip.

  157. 157.

    catclub

    November 7, 2016 at 11:19 am

    @Mike J: That sounds like a big Biden deal.

  158. 158.

    catclub

    November 7, 2016 at 11:20 am

    @karen marie:

    Excessive optimism depresses the vote

    It is probably the opposite. Everybody wants to be on the bandwagon when its winning.

  159. 159.

    Ruckus

    November 7, 2016 at 11:20 am

    @Iowa Old Lady:
    It isn’t like the top of their ticket isn’t a big joke either. At least it would be if it was funny in the least.

  160. 160.

    Poopyman

    November 7, 2016 at 11:20 am

    Musical accompaniment to whatever posts pop up late afternoon/early evening.

  161. 161.

    Major Major Major Major

    November 7, 2016 at 11:20 am

    @karen marie: Wang actually had a post this weekend about how thinking you’re winning increases turnout. At any rate, for me it’s because Silver’s model is opaque (ALWAYS a red flag when there are open-source alternatives that are better), seems pretty shitty, his website is clearly a clickbait factory, and people cite him like he’s, one, the only person doing this, and two, the most accurate, when neither are true.

    @imonlylurking: y’all can borrow my dice if you need, I bought two pounds. No really you can just buy pounds of dice.

    Doug would probably be a pretty fun DM. AL could do drawings. I’ll bet Tom would be good too.

  162. 162.

    Tractarian

    November 7, 2016 at 11:21 am

    Christie will become super-irate at being left off the leaked cabinet list and will retaliate by leaking something damaging about the campaign today…

  163. 163.

    dmsilev

    November 7, 2016 at 11:22 am

    @karen marie: I think ‘cautious’ is the wrong word to use for 538’s analysis. Cautious implies doing as little as possible to the raw data and hedging your bets. Instead, the 538 model explicitly adjusts the raw polling numbers that they use, both for “house effects” (some polling companies tend to produce results that lean D, others that lean R) and a “trend” adjustment. The latter especially is an issue, because it tends to amplify swings in the polls which could just be random fluctuations. He also assumes a large amount of correlation between “similar” states, and also weights for national polls. Basically, he’s taking a kitchen-sink approach to building his model, and it’s difficult to tell from the outside whether the plumber accidentally crossed the hot-water supply and drain lines.

  164. 164.

    Anoniminous

    November 7, 2016 at 11:23 am

    @Major Major Major Major:

    Yup. When the history of this election is written one of the topics will be just how little influence the Infotainment Mediums had on the outcome.

    @catclub:

    See. Told ya! :-)

  165. 165.

    Bill_D

    November 7, 2016 at 11:23 am

    @Woodrowfan: That would be a very small slice of Boomers. The voting age was still 21, so you would have had to been born by November 5, 1947 to have voted in that election.

  166. 166.

    JMG

    November 7, 2016 at 11:26 am

    @Bill_D: Correct. I was born in 1949, and the 1970 midterms were my first vote.

  167. 167.

    Major Major Major Major

    November 7, 2016 at 11:27 am

    @dmsilev: whereas Wang does, like, three things, with a public codebase. Audits are good.

    @Anoniminous: comPLETELY agree. With the exception of one week after phlegmgazi I haven’t even been particularly worried.

  168. 168.

    Anoniminous

    November 7, 2016 at 11:28 am

    @Woodrowfan:

    In 1968 the favorite candidate of males under the age of 30 was George Wallace.

  169. 169.

    The Moar You Know

    November 7, 2016 at 11:29 am

    It doesn’t have to turn Rs into Ds. It just needs to turn “unlikely to vote” Ds into “likely to vote” Ds. Isn’t that really the biggest issue with Comey’s first letter, in that it made the less enthusiastic voters less likely to cast votes for HRC?

    @Punchy: Comey’s first letter didn’t change any of the essential polling. Why would the second?

  170. 170.

    different-church-lady

    November 7, 2016 at 11:30 am

    @Major Major Major Major: My suspicion is people are mixing up feeling like you’re ahead with feeling like it’s a blowout. If you’ve got the edge in a race that’s contested, you get pumped. If you think, “Yeah, this is in the bag,” you slack off.

  171. 171.

    different-church-lady

    November 7, 2016 at 11:32 am

    @Anoniminous: I think the flaw in your theory would be that Trump probably doesn’t get the nomination without infotainment media.

  172. 172.

    Major Major Major Major

    November 7, 2016 at 11:32 am

    @different-church-lady: I think the marginal voters in the Hillary coalition (Latinos, millennials, etc.) are plenty motivated to kick Trump in the shins and double-tap his campaign just to make sure.

  173. 173.

    Ruckus

    November 7, 2016 at 11:32 am

    @catclub:
    It shouldn’t be all that amazing.
    First, we are a very diverse population.
    Second, we saw what the repubs could do to a state a long time ago and have managed to throw most of them out. And the state is better off for it and it’s obvious to any that want to see it, not so much to anyone with their heads in the rear orifice. Even some of the olds notice that CA is better off, much, much less smog (visibility used to get down below 4-5 miles more days than not decades ago. Now it’s a rare day when I can even see any and there are a shit ton more people living here now.) We see the effects of better living through real democracy every day.

  174. 174.

    trollhattan

    November 7, 2016 at 11:37 am

    @Patricia Kayden:
    We’re all set to keep sending the equally toxic Tom McClintock east, so it’s not all puppies, bud and cabernet from the sunshine state. But if Issa gets more time to spend with his millions I’m all in for hosting the reunion party.

  175. 175.

    Larkspur

    November 7, 2016 at 11:39 am

    @Lizzy L: Nicely put, Lizzy L. Thx.

  176. 176.

    Lizzy L

    November 7, 2016 at 11:39 am

    @trollhattan: If Issa gets kicked to the curb I’m drinking TWO beers Tuesday night!

  177. 177.

    Ruckus

    November 7, 2016 at 11:39 am

    @Major Major Major Major:
    How can you string him up by his fingernails if you’ve already pulled them out, one by one? And there are other body parts that stringing up by may be more effective.

  178. 178.

    trollhattan

    November 7, 2016 at 11:39 am

    @Tractarian:
    Christie never had a chance because there was that time he hugged Obama and Kenya cooties are forever.

  179. 179.

    Roger Moore

    November 7, 2016 at 11:39 am

    @Punchy:

    Isn’t that really the biggest issue with Comey’s first letter, in that it made the less enthusiastic voters less likely to cast votes for HRC?

    It’s not clear that it did anything more than make less enthusiastic Democrats less likely to respond to pollsters. There was a very good article on this at Yougov, where they argue that a lot of the big swings in the polls are phantoms based on recent news making people less prone to respond. They claim that when they correct by weighting their polls according to reported presidential preference in the previous election, most of those big swings disappear.

  180. 180.

    Terry chay

    November 7, 2016 at 11:40 am

    @karen marie: as i’ve been saying for weeks now: there is no evidence that optimism depresses the vote, and if it does, it is more likely to depress vote for the on running behind.

  181. 181.

    Roger Moore

    November 7, 2016 at 11:41 am

    @karen marie:

    Excessive optimism depresses the vote.

    [Citation needed]

  182. 182.

    JDM

    November 7, 2016 at 11:42 am

    @amk: Christie was just there to fetch fast food.

  183. 183.

    Patricia Kayden

    November 7, 2016 at 11:42 am

    @Calouste:

    the Clash doing gospel

    I’m intrigued. I didn’t know The Clash had a lot of reggae influences and songs until just this year. Interesting group.

  184. 184.

    Betty Cracker

    November 7, 2016 at 11:43 am

    @The Moar You Know:

    Comey’s first letter didn’t change any of the essential polling.

    I don’t think we know that definitively at all.

  185. 185.

    amk

    November 7, 2016 at 11:43 am

    Dana Houle ‏@DanaHoule 29m29 minutes ago

    A 12 year old w cerebral palsy drove his wheelchair in to a Trump rally to stand up to hatred. You can do GOTV calls

  186. 186.

    hueyplong

    November 7, 2016 at 11:43 am

    These picks give off a Hitler-and-Speer’s-Berlin-building-designs vibe. Nate Silver placed the chances of their winning via superweapons at 32.2%

  187. 187.

    MuckJagger

    November 7, 2016 at 11:44 am

    Patricia Kayden’s comment at #1 reminded me of this: I wrote about ten of these last year and posted them on Facebook. Even though I was having fun with it, I gave it up because no matter how absurd I got, it seemed like they paled in comparison to what was going on with the *real* campaign.

    ********************

    July 13, 2015
    The Honorable Donald Trump
    New York City, New York

    Dear Mr. Trump:

    As one of your most fervent supporters since Day One, I note with awe your recent rise to the top of some Presidential polls. You alone are the one candidate who can restore this country to the ideals that exist in my head.

    I suppose some days you must look back and think how easy it would have been to quit after your first, second, third or fourth bankruptcies. But you didn’t! Likewise, how easy it would have been to quit after your first or second marriages. But you didn’t! You got right back on that horse! (Please don’t think I am comparing the lovely Mrs. Trump III to a horse! I’m just kidding!! When you take the Oath of Office in 2017, maybe she will become known as the “First Babe”!)

    I have a plan that you may be very interested in. I propose an “Avengers of the Republican Party,” with YOU as Captain America! If we can convince the other candidates to sit out the nominating process and make this amazing display of unity, we have a much better chance of avoiding a H-I-double-hockey-sticks-e-r-y presidency, if you get my drift.

    I will admit I haven’t figured out places for everyone, but I’m sure you’ll agree that this list takes our candidates’ respective strengths (“the good guys”) and shoves them mercilessly in our opponents’ faces (“the bad guys”).

    The President: Donald Trump
    The Vice-President: Sarah Palin
    Secretary of State: Ted Cruz
    Attorney General: Joe Arpaio
    Secretary of the Treasury: Rick Scott
    Secretary of Education: Mike Huckabee
    Secretary of Defense: Ted Nugent (ROCK N ROLLYEAH!!!!)
    Secretary of Transportation: Chris Christie
    Secretary of the Interior: Mark Sanford
    Secretary of Commerce: Carly Fiorina
    Health and Human Services: Ben Carson
    Secretary of Agriculture: Cliven Bundy
    Department of Labor: Rand Paul

    Of course, when you have a bench as deep as ours, even if one candidate can’t serve there’s a mirth of candidates who can take his place. For example, the young Italian boy, Mario Rubio, or any of the twenty or thirty ex-Governors who are running. Or even Chuck Norris!

    In some, I hope you’ll give this proposal serious consideration, for it is only through you and you alone that we can truly finish America.

    Very truly yours,
    Mike Perry

    P.S. I just thought up the following slogan, you don’t have to pay me for it. How about a couple of passes to one of your golf courses? Or letting me say “Your Fired” when your show comes back on the air?

    Anyway, the slogan is this: “Vote Donald, and think V-D!” Pretty good, huh?

  188. 188.

    Larkspur

    November 7, 2016 at 11:45 am

    @MomSense: Huh. I thought Jess was my friend, you know, like the person specially assigned to me for updates and money-giving. Now you tell me Jess texts to everybody? I guess I shouldn’t be surprised. I’ve ignored Jess’s most recent texts cause I’ve given all I can at the moment.

  189. 189.

    Anoniminous

    November 7, 2016 at 11:45 am

    @different-church-lady:

    H’mmm. Point.

    My guess is Trump is the culmination of the decades of RW propaganda coupled with the knowledge in the RW this is their last shot because the Reagan Revolution has ended. Trump is the GOP without the Lee Atwater camouflage. Trump is what the GOP always believed and wanted, deep in their gnarly little souls, and were unable to say in public. If this is anywhere near accurate Trump’s media coverage only confirmed existing trends.

  190. 190.

    different-church-lady

    November 7, 2016 at 11:45 am

    @Major Major Major Major: It’s really weird, isn’t it? Treat a group of people like they’re sub-humans who should be exiled and they turn on you!

  191. 191.

    Patricia Kayden

    November 7, 2016 at 11:45 am

    @Tractarian: Like how his subordinates leaked that he was deeply involved in Bridge Gate? Hmmmm. If I were Christie, I’d find other ways to spend my time than leaking info about Trump. Trump will be perfectly fine after November 8th. Christie not so much.

  192. 192.

    Major Major Major Major

    November 7, 2016 at 11:46 am

    OT: From the radio (they have little listener stories every morning):

    I know the world as a random series of events strung together to make it Monday.

  193. 193.

    Punchy

    November 7, 2016 at 11:47 am

    @Roger Moore: I completely agree, and have been wondering a lot about this. That “swings” are nothing more then likely Dems unwilling to answer their phone and talk to a pollster, while energized Repubs are excited to proclaim their loyalty. And vice-versa when Trump does something stupid. However, I had a feeling that the younger people, who only know Clinton as a SoS, and perhaps as a fierce Obama opponent in ’07/08, might have thrown in the towel upon hearing more ostensibly shitty Clinton news. If that’s an incorrect assumption, I’m happy to find this out.

  194. 194.

    Emerald

    November 7, 2016 at 11:47 am

    @burnspbesq: [email protected]gogol’s wife: [email protected]The Moar You Know:
    Howdy neighbor!

  195. 195.

    BruceFromOhio

    November 7, 2016 at 11:49 am

    @SenyorDave: Those who have been snorting the fumes of the dumpster fire for the last six months DO. NOT. CARE.

    It’s like Agent Smith from the matrix films – the interesting is not in building, it’s in destroying. Everything.

  196. 196.

    Patricia Kayden

    November 7, 2016 at 11:49 am

    @MuckJagger: Do you have a Facebook friend named John Miller or John Barron? Trump may have read your list as a recommendation rather than as mockery.

  197. 197.

    Major Major Major Major

    November 7, 2016 at 11:54 am

    I can’t even figure out Trump’s character class, just that he’s chaotic evil.

    ETA: fighter? Barbarian maybe, they’re illiterate as a class feature (though they can learn to read).

  198. 198.

    karen marie

    November 7, 2016 at 11:55 am

    @dmsilev: All I know is he’s been more often right than wrong, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

  199. 199.

    Enhanced Voting Techinques

    November 7, 2016 at 11:55 am

    @Major Major Major Major:

    : y’all can borrow my dice if you need, I bought two pounds. No really you can just buy pounds of dice.

    You play Arms Law you say? Moar dice!

  200. 200.

    Peale

    November 7, 2016 at 11:55 am

    Yeah. Nothing says “maintaining peaceful, working relationships with our allies; building bridges with our adversaries” like “Newt Gingrich”.

  201. 201.

    Barbara

    November 7, 2016 at 11:56 am

    @Patricia Kayden: Christie’s subordinates did not leak anything. They testified under oath. Indeed, they would probably have done a lot better for themselves if they had leaked, and certainly if they had cooperated with the Department of Justice.

  202. 202.

    Major Major Major Major

    November 7, 2016 at 11:57 am

    @karen marie:

    he’s been more often right than wrong

    So have many coins.

  203. 203.

    Matt McIrvin

    November 7, 2016 at 11:58 am

    @Major Major Major Major: I think the narrowing we saw did have some contribution from the Comey letter making CLINTON SCANDAL the overwhelming focus of the news again–but most of it was probably the other side of the coin, that Trump was once again doing fewer publicly embarrassing things than usual.

    And if that NYT article can be believed, part of that was that Kellyanne Conway finally yanked his Twitter access. And she may have gotten the leverage to do that by telling Trump that the Comey letter meant he’d win if he just behaved for a week and a half. But I think the slide actually started a few days before that, which suggests to me that a lot of it was just there were no more debates and no opportunities for Trump to act stupid in front of a TV audience of millions.

  204. 204.

    hovercraft

    November 7, 2016 at 11:59 am

    I’m not sure if this was posted, DNRT.
    Cokie Roberts: Only ‘Birth Control’ Could Control Latino Vote For GOP (AUDIO)
    Roberts responded to backlash about her comment, saying that she was just pointing out how many “wonderful Latinos” are in America.

    Folks, folks, folks! If course you have it wrong. I meant that there are already millions of wonderful Latinos in the country. Thank heaven!

    — Cokie Roberts (@CokieRoberts) November 7, 2016

  205. 205.

    Jeffro

    November 7, 2016 at 12:00 pm

    Off to do a little work, take Fro Jr to DOCTOR STRANGE, then circle back for the Kaine/Biden rally with the whole family! Fired Up! Ready To Go!

    G
    O
    T
    V!!!

  206. 206.

    Just One More Canuck

    November 7, 2016 at 12:00 pm

    @MuckJagger: “a mirth of candidates”? I like it!

    “A prison of candidates”?
    “A Klan of candidates’?

  207. 207.

    Major Major Major Major

    November 7, 2016 at 12:01 pm

    @Matt McIrvin: yeah, even if all you do is squint at the graphs it’s obvious the ‘slide’ (really reversion to the mean) started before Comey.

  208. 208.

    BruceFromOhio

    November 7, 2016 at 12:01 pm

    @Lizzy L: I admire your fortitude! Thank you for you effort, all will be well.

  209. 209.

    GrandJury

    November 7, 2016 at 12:02 pm

    @Matt McIrvin: But he is still acting stupid at every rally.

    The twitter thing was definitely hurting him. Sad to see them finally wise up.

  210. 210.

    Terry chay

    November 7, 2016 at 12:03 pm

    @Major Major Major Major: but Donald Trump is DM! @dungeonsdonald on twitter

  211. 211.

    Peale

    November 7, 2016 at 12:03 pm

    @hovercraft: what was she even on about? What a foolish “joke” to make.

  212. 212.

    karen marie

    November 7, 2016 at 12:04 pm

    @Roger Moore: my language was imprecise. I should have said “overconfidence” or “complacency.”

  213. 213.

    the Conster, la Citoyenne

    November 7, 2016 at 12:04 pm

    @Mike J:
    @hovercraft:

    Our new troll GrandJury says that hispanics won’t vote any more than other elections, and that even if they do, it won’t matter because reasons.

  214. 214.

    catclub

    November 7, 2016 at 12:05 pm

    @catclub: Google finance headline now:

    Dow surges 300 points as FBI clears Clinton on eve of election
    USA TODAY – 9 hours ago

  215. 215.

    Terry chay

    November 7, 2016 at 12:05 pm

    @Patricia Kayden: we didn’t do anything, the CAGOP did it to themselves. national party GOP earlier and in microcosm.

  216. 216.

    different-church-lady

    November 7, 2016 at 12:06 pm

    @the Conster, la Citoyenne:

    Our new old troll GrandJury…

    It would be nice if, going forward, Zander could piss off some smarter people…

  217. 217.

    Villago Delenda Est

    November 7, 2016 at 12:06 pm

    Greatest collection of scum and villainy since Berlin in ’33.

  218. 218.

    karen marie

    November 7, 2016 at 12:06 pm

    @Betty Cracker: There have been anecdata reports on twitter of wavering Clinton supporters casting early ballots for Trump after the first Comey letter.

  219. 219.

    catclub

    November 7, 2016 at 12:07 pm

    @hovercraft: She should not have to apologize. her point was that illegal immigration is not what is boosting Latino populations. It is people who are already citizens.

  220. 220.

    Lurker Extraordinaire

    November 7, 2016 at 12:08 pm

    @hovercraft: WHAT. THE. ACTUAL. FUCK.

  221. 221.

    MCA1

    November 7, 2016 at 12:08 pm

    @different-church-lady: Good point. Not to mention that with an actual press that does something other than chase the hot takes and beat the horserace to death, we would have had a public vetting of Drumpf. I don’t care if he loses by 20 points nationally – he would have lost by more had there been enough attention span in the media to cover the fact that HE HASN’T RELEASED HIS FUCKING TAX RETURNS; or that his businesses inevitably and invariably, every one of them, end in either bankruptcy or lawsuits; or that he’s a thrice married self-admitted philandering pig, at best, and a Humperdink-like pervert, at worst; that he was the chosen protégé of Roy f’ing Cohn, one of the most despicable actors of late 20th century America; or that his last two campaign managers have been closely tied to Russian interference in Ukraine and the head of a xenophobic, nationalist and racist internet hotbed; or any number of other things.

    In any other campaign, every one of those things above would have led to an intense spotlight and a feeding frenzy that stretched out for weeks and irreparably damaged the politician in question, leaving them as a zombie candidate. Kurt Eichenwald’s article about Trump’s international business ties alone would, in any responsible media environment, destroyed him. Not to mention that a functioning press would have squeezed Ryan and McConnell and whoever else relentlessly about their mealy-mouthed fake repudiations and bullshit half-evasions and re-un-non-endorsement garbage until they got a straight answer.

    Here, whether it was from the dizzying array of choices on the giant menu, or the twitter-fu that Trump used to get everyone talking about something else every five minutes, or that the both-sides virus has spread so far it’s infected the entire body, or numerous other possibilities, he STILL has not been vetted in the public domain. Whatever the cause, though, it’s a complete and utter failure of the media, which has helped this most manifestly unqualified candidate of all time shore up at least 35-40% of the vote. There is no question in my mind that whatever result we see tomorrow night will be significantly better for Trump than it ever should have been, and that will be so because of our media, who have normalized his despicable behavior in such a way that millions of people who normally would have self-shamed themselves into not pulling the lever for him will instead be able to vote for him.

  222. 222.

    BruceFromOhio

    November 7, 2016 at 12:08 pm

    @karen marie: … balanced with anecdata of housefuls of Dem voters mailing in early ballots FOR Clinton … there 3 in mine alone!!

  223. 223.

    Major Major Major Major

    November 7, 2016 at 12:09 pm

    @Terry chay: you know what the problem with Eberron–which is a disaster by the way–is? We’re getting undercut by goblin labor pouring in over the lightning rails, it seems like there’s a new terrorist attack every time we get together. People are being murdered in the streets. And–and there’s this group of people who are very smart, very international, these elves, they control the media, they control the gold supply…

  224. 224.

    Matt McIrvin

    November 7, 2016 at 12:09 pm

    @GrandJury: Stupid at a rally is much more contained, in terms of exposure, than stupid in the national TV debate. The worst moments get some national coverage, but everyone in the country isn’t watching them live.

  225. 225.

    hovercraft

    November 7, 2016 at 12:10 pm

    @Peale:
    She was on NPR with Tucker Carlson I think, and he was saying we need to shut down the borders to keep hispanics out, and that was response Cookie’s. “The call is coming from inside the house”, so to speak.

  226. 226.

    Latino J

    November 7, 2016 at 12:10 pm

    I can’t imagine that group of egos working together. First, you know none of them respect Trump. They’ll be there to run their own fiefdoms however the heck they see fit.

    The prospect of Rudy as AG is terrifying. What’s he going to do, he can’t run off all the “undesirables” out of the United States like did he NYC? Are we going to start shipping off the people of Appalachia and the Deep South to Central America to make room in those areas to build trendy housing for young professionals who can’t afford New England and the West coast?

    And I wonder how stop and frisk will work to bring down the crime rate in Meth-headland and Opiod-ville? Those folks have NRA protected rights, you know.

  227. 227.

    BruceFromOhio

    November 7, 2016 at 12:11 pm

    @Lurker Extraordinaire: It’s Cokie Roberts, that should be explanation enough. Why anyone, anywhere, pays any attention to what she writes, says, or does is a mystery.

    @hovercraft: Why NPR pleas for donations go in the recycle box for $100, Alex.

  228. 228.

    bemused senior

    November 7, 2016 at 12:14 pm

    @…now I try to be amused: worst wing.

  229. 229.

    Peale

    November 7, 2016 at 12:14 pm

    @Latino J: What’s the equivalent of 145th street for the USA. No rednecks allowed below 145th street.

  230. 230.

    Terry chay

    November 7, 2016 at 12:15 pm

    @different-church-lady: nate COHN, not nate silver. stop giving credit for good reporting in statistics to a fraud. kthxbai

  231. 231.

    MisterForkbeard

    November 7, 2016 at 12:15 pm

    @Larkspur: Jess texts everyone, but she’s everyone’s friend. Jess Loves Us All. :)

  232. 232.

    MaxUtil

    November 7, 2016 at 12:15 pm

    Could we set up some sort of “Truman Show” arrangement and drop Trump into it, telling he actually did win? Let the Trump presidency play out safely to serve as amusement and warning. You know all the other world leaders would be willing to drop in and play themselves just for laughs.

  233. 233.

    different-church-lady

    November 7, 2016 at 12:16 pm

    @MCA1: My point was even simpler than that: without the three-ring circus atmosphere of cable news, Trump does not have a stage in the first place. They didn’t merely fail to vet him, they turned him into the star of their hot new breakout reality TV show.

  234. 234.

    MomSense

    November 7, 2016 at 12:16 pm

    @Larkspur:

    See how magical Jess is. She makes us each feel like she is our bff.

  235. 235.

    Latino J

    November 7, 2016 at 12:17 pm

    @hovercraft:

    I’m not kidding. The GOP is about to figure out that ?? Puerto Rico is an island of 100 by 30 miles with a mountainous center that has 3.5 million inhabitants with a constantly growing population that it can’t really support. And every person born there is automatically a US citizen.

    And every time Trump said Mexican, we heard “Puerto Rican.” Cause we know – Mexican, Dominican, Puerto Rican – we’re all just Cans to people with his beliefs.

  236. 236.

    japa21

    November 7, 2016 at 12:18 pm

    A ray of sunshine. Clinton has this in the bag and I think that the Senate is in good shape. More House seats will be won than expected, though I do doubt enough to take control.

    The old maxim is the more people who vote, the more the Dems win. There are two big factors that determine the number of people who vote.

    1. GOTV. There is little doubt the Dems have a major advantage in that regard. It has shown up in early voting and it will show up tomorrow.

    2. Weather. Tomorrow is supposed to have great weather through most of the country so that will not be a deterrent to voting. People keep bringing up Brexit. Well everything points to weather being a major factor which depressed the vote in the London area, where the strongest “stay” voters were.

    So everybody cheer up, do what needs to be done, GOTV and then relax.

  237. 237.

    Betty Cracker

    November 7, 2016 at 12:19 pm

    @catclub: I’m sure that’s what she meant, if only because it’s the only explanation that makes sense in the context (there’s audio at TPM). But it wouldn’t be a bad idea to apologize for the awkward and offensive phrasing. She’s a dolt who is bad at her job. Maybe she could apologize for that as well.

  238. 238.

    MisterForkbeard

    November 7, 2016 at 12:19 pm

    @Major Major Major Major: I think Trump is a good example of Neutral Evil. He believes in Law to the extent that it benefits him, and disregards it as he likes otherwise.

  239. 239.

    MomSense

    November 7, 2016 at 12:20 pm

    @MaxUtil:

    I love that idea. Trump would be so pleased with the attention he’d never ever leave the dome.

  240. 240.

    dmsilev

    November 7, 2016 at 12:20 pm

    @MaxUtil: He could sequester himself in Trump Tower and pretend to be President there. That could work.

  241. 241.

    Major Major Major Major

    November 7, 2016 at 12:21 pm

    @MisterForkbeard: Fair point. But we still need a class. Bard, perhaps?

  242. 242.

    hovercraft

    November 7, 2016 at 12:22 pm

    @the Conster, la Citoyenne:

    Our new troll GrandJury says that hispanics won’t vote any more than other elections, and that even if they do, it won’t matter because reasons.

    It should explain to us why all of a sudden GOP are all over my TV saying that there is a real possibility that the last 18 months have indeed been a wasted effort by the Orange Shitgibbon. He actually lost the election on the day he slid down the escalator and called Mexicans murderers and rapists.
    But I guess it wants to wait and see the final results. Just keep denying reality for another 30 hours and then we can all just continue to ignore @shomi.

  243. 243.

    hovercraft

    November 7, 2016 at 12:24 pm

    @catclub:
    Her point is valid, her delivery, not so much.

  244. 244.

    Matt McIrvin

    November 7, 2016 at 12:24 pm

    @Latino J: Several weeks ago he did a rally in New Hampshire at which he was talking about Latinos in the Southwest as if they were some kind of anthropological mystery: “Hispanics, or Latinos as they like to be called in that area.”

    And I remember thinking that at that moment he was a 40-minute drive from Lawrence, Mass. which is 74% Latino (Puerto Ricans and Dominicans, mostly). It might as well have been another planet.

  245. 245.

    Matt McIrvin

    November 7, 2016 at 12:27 pm

    @hovercraft:

    He actually lost the election on the day he slid down the escalator and called Mexicans murderers and rapists.

    He couldn’t have gotten anywhere without that, though. It was also the day he won the nomination and came within shouting distance of the presidency.

    And this is the trap that the Republican Party finds itself in.

  246. 246.

    the Conster, la Citoyenne

    November 7, 2016 at 12:27 pm

    @hovercraft:

    Moanin Joe had a two representatives on this morning from America’s Voices (I think) – a Latino organizing group – who said that Florida is where the huge Latino turnout has blown even them away – there’s a degree of motivation they’ve never seen before from previously inactive voters, and from new voters – ie., the Puerto Ricans who are highly motivated Dem voters. I guess sensing someone is an existential threat to you and your family will do that.

  247. 247.

    Major Major Major Major

    November 7, 2016 at 12:29 pm

    @Matt McIrvin: Well-stated and I completely agree.

  248. 248.

    Patricia Kayden

    November 7, 2016 at 12:30 pm

    @hovercraft: I had tuned into listen to NPR this morning on my drive in to work but immediately turned the station when I heard that Tucker Carlson was going to comment on the Elections. When did NPR start catering to the likes of Carlson? Not one minute of my time will be spent listening to that racist.

  249. 249.

    Peale

    November 7, 2016 at 12:30 pm

    @hovercraft: I guess that’s fine. Sort of. No. Not really. Still, I’m glad she called Tucker out on his big bad border concern. At the heart of that concern is the knowledge that they blew it big time with the Hispanics. They had 50 years to make nice. But seriously, can we actually have a discussion about what the immigration levels should be without interjecting whether it helps the GOP or the Democrats more?

  250. 250.

    Villago Delenda Est

    November 7, 2016 at 12:30 pm

    @hovercraft: With Tucker Carlson? She caught the derp from him, or intensified her already preexisting derp condition.

  251. 251.

    MisterForkbeard

    November 7, 2016 at 12:33 pm

    @Major Major Major Major: I’d prefer Warlock from 4th Edition. He’s clearly made a pact with some kind of infernal power. It also has a primary stat of Charisma, which I guess works.

    I mean, I keep hearing that Trump is really charismatic, but he’s always seemed transparently smarmy and manipulative to me. But I suppose this fits. Maybe he’s just a BAD warlock with a good PR team.

  252. 252.

    SRW1

    November 7, 2016 at 12:33 pm

    So, Boris Johnson foreign secretary in the UK and Newt Gingrich SoS in the US.

    Maybe Marine Le Pen should let it quietly be known that she’s considering her father for the role of chief diplomat should she become president of France and Putin could be persuaded to elevate Zhirinovsky to the post in Russia.

    Would probably end in tears, but the ratings for the ensuing reality show would be spectacular.

  253. 253.

    gwangung

    November 7, 2016 at 12:34 pm

    @Betty Cracker: I’ve had more than my fill of people who mean well but still step on my feet through their own clumsiness. I still appreciate the apology—it helps to nail it in their heads, they need to do better.

  254. 254.

    burnspbesq

    November 7, 2016 at 12:34 pm

    Talk about playing a long game.

    The now-increasingly-likely Clinton win in Florida is being driven to a noticeable extent by first-time voting by immigrants from Puerto Rico, fleeing the collapse of PR’s economy.

    The collapse of PR’s economy was driven to a significant extent by the out-migration of pharmaceutical manufacturing jobs after the tax incentives given to US Big Pharma under Internal Revenue Code Section 936 expired in 2006.

    Guess who signed the legislation repealing Section 936?

    Bill Clinton.

    If Big Dawg had a handlebar mustache, he’d be twirling it like Snidely Whiplash right about now .

    ETA: of course I’m just playin.’

  255. 255.

    amk

    November 7, 2016 at 12:37 pm

    @Matt McIrvin: A less than 20% probability was never a shouting distance. Not even close.

  256. 256.

    Trentrunner

    November 7, 2016 at 12:40 pm

    @MaxUtil: I would watch the hell out of this.

    And I wouldn’t be surprised if some version of this (much cheaper) isn’t precisely what Trump does post-election.

  257. 257.

    Gin & Tonic

    November 7, 2016 at 12:43 pm

    @SRW1:

    Would probably end in tears, but the ratings for the ensuing reality show would be spectacular.

    There’d be nobody left to watch the show.

  258. 258.

    Brachiator

    November 7, 2016 at 12:43 pm

    Donald Trump’s cabinet-in-waiting is taking shape in the final days of the race, as aides eye a number of Trump loyalists for major posts should he win on Tuesday

    The only thing I know for certain is that Chris Christie heads up the Trump transition team. But Halloween is over and I not going to get scared over this weird speculation about Trump’s cabinet.

    Right now, I don’t expect Trump to be elected (please oh please oh please). Ask me again about this Nightmare Dream Team on Wednesday.

  259. 259.

    Slappy Kincaid

    November 7, 2016 at 12:46 pm

    @VOR: I think he should name Adam West as secretary of defense. He could even appoint him a sidekick!

  260. 260.

    Peale

    November 7, 2016 at 12:46 pm

    @Matt McIrvin: Honestly, I think he lost the election during the first or second GOP debate when he brought up his cock size. He may have won the GOP nomination with his “Too many immigrants and we don’t know who they are. Disaster Diaster Everywhere” tirade. But he put a ceiling on himself with his own cock. No way was a candidate who couldn’t filter himself in public going to win more votes than Romney.

  261. 261.

    Major Major Major Major

    November 7, 2016 at 12:49 pm

    @MisterForkbeard: I was thinking 4e warlock too, actually. I think an evil bard might be a better fit, though–he puts on performances that make people act differently than they otherwise would. Sort of. Some are just deplorable. Work with me, here.

    “Almost(-ish) winning the American presidency”–coming about as close as he did–is the level of competence and success you want in a BBEG, though. Enough to scare the players, probably not going to win but at least a somewhat plausible chance, still makes it feel like a real victory, etc.

  262. 262.

    gvg

    November 7, 2016 at 12:50 pm

    @different-church-lady:

    You know what’s really horrifying? NBC just reports this mater-of-factly, as though everything is normal, this is ordinary behavior, there’s no rhinoceros taking a crap in the corner…

    I am going to disagree. I think it’s OK to report it matter of factly, because I am relieved they actually report it. This is something that should be reported, voters should have these indications, and the media has been very bad about reporting the facts. However, I do think they should be reporting a lot more facts plus what they mean, but I am not going to object to actual reporting.
    I don’t know if it would be helpful to scream like their hair was on fire. I find that very off putting, and its part of why I never watch FOX.

    Supposedly many of the new voter Hispanics in Florida are Puerto Ricans who have immigrated recently because of the Islands bad economy. I haven’t seen stats for new voters who moved from elsewhere.

  263. 263.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    November 7, 2016 at 12:54 pm

    Turned on MSNBC for quick hit to feed my addiction, hoping maybe Andrea Mitchell had locked herself in the bathroom and Hugh Hewitt had melted in the sun, got a pleasant couple of minutes of Obama bringing it in MI, reminding people of that whole “I saved the fucking auto industry you dumb fucks”, that last part was implied. He’s as good as I’ve ever seen him.

    And now Andrea Mitchell is asking Ruth Marcus (a Harvard Law grad? really? I wonder when the cinderblock fell on her head) about…. emails.

  264. 264.

    Timurid

    November 7, 2016 at 12:58 pm

    @Chris:

    The Ministry of Love needs good people.

  265. 265.

    SenyorDave

    November 7, 2016 at 1:01 pm

    I don’t think I’ve ever felt like this about a person involved in an election, but I hope Trump is miserable for the rest of his life after he loses. He is almost as close to a worthless human as possible.

  266. 266.

    hovercraft

    November 7, 2016 at 1:02 pm

    There must be pigs in the sky, locusts, frogs.
    Goodbye fellow Juicers it’s the end of the world.
    Glenn Beck: ‘Obama Made Me A Better Man’

  267. 267.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    November 7, 2016 at 1:04 pm

    This surprises me

    David Guralnick ‏@ DavidGuralnick 53m53 minutes ago
    We have @ CoachJim4UM arriving at the rally for Obama at Ray Fisher stadium.

  268. 268.

    Shana

    November 7, 2016 at 1:05 pm

    @MaxUtil: re: Truman Show for Trump: only if the cameras aren’t actually on.

    BTW, purely anecdotal, and I know I’ve talked about this before but, I worked for the local Dems this spring handing out welcome letters from our committee (headed by a naturalized citizen) at several naturalization ceremonies. Without exception, people were thrilled to learn about us and volunteered that they were thrilled to be able to vote against Trump and it was a part of why they wanted to become citizens this year.

  269. 269.

    dmsilev

    November 7, 2016 at 1:07 pm

    @hovercraft: Considering the low baseline starting point, it wouldn’t take much to make Beck ‘a better man’.

  270. 270.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    November 7, 2016 at 1:07 pm

    Laura NahmiasVerified account
    ‏@ nahmias
    I saw a panhandler on 42nd Street holding a sign that said, “Give me a dollar or I’ll vote for Trump.”

  271. 271.

    Poopyman

    November 7, 2016 at 1:08 pm

    @hovercraft:

    “This guy is dangerously unhinged,” Beck told the New Yorker. “And, for all the things people have said about me over the years, I should be able to spot Dangerously Unhinged.”

    Umma just leave that there.

  272. 272.

    Enhanced Voting Techinques

    November 7, 2016 at 1:08 pm

    @Trentrunner: It was pointed out to me that board room set for The Apprentice is set up to resemble the president’s briefing room down to Trump sitting in a oversize chair in the middle of the table. Easy to see the next Trump reality show being “The Executive” with Trump playing fantasy president.

  273. 273.

    Peale

    November 7, 2016 at 1:10 pm

    @SenyorDave: Look at his life? And remember, the chances of him not being miserable even when he was wealthy were slim to none. His outlook on life, finding disasters everywhere, going into histrionics over the existence of PEOPLE. Plus he hangs out with unhappy people, which limits the chances of finding bliss tremendously. it is not possible that he will ever be happy for more than a fleeting moment.

  274. 274.

    Tazj

    November 7, 2016 at 1:11 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: Of course they discussed emails!, because the emails! are the most important topic in the history of forever!
    I’m taking it as good news that I haven’t heard as much from Jess lately. I don’t know if it means anything but I’m choosing to be believe it’s good news.

  275. 275.

    pamelabrown53

    November 7, 2016 at 1:12 pm

    @hovercraft: #267
    Seriously, hovercraft, reading the TPM link to Glenn Beck felt like an out of body experience.

    Also, too. someone waaay up thread was questioning the early Latino vote in Fl because of the preponderance of Cuban republicans. The fact is that as the older Cubans die, they are being replaced by dem leaning Cubanos. Plus, the stats are emphasizing first time and low propensity voters.

  276. 276.

    trollhattan

    November 7, 2016 at 1:13 pm

    @hovercraft:
    It’s too easy to beat up on NPR but for fvck’s sake, why do they have to “balance” centrist-on-a-good day Cokie with a string of neocon blowhards like Jonah Goldberg and today’s Tucker the bowtie Carlson? Do they understand they’re legitimizing those dudes with no regard to their vile histories? Do they understand Cokie ain’t a Democrat?

  277. 277.

    sukabi

    November 7, 2016 at 1:13 pm

    @Waldo: checks? There haven’t been any checks for the last 6 weeks.k

  278. 278.

    Rommie

    November 7, 2016 at 1:14 pm

    If we are talking D&D – Pathfinder is what I currently play – Trump had his brains sucked out by an Intellect Devourer somewhere along the line. It’s similar to the idea that his hair is actually a brain-controlling alien, but, in the end, his body is just a puppet for some evil entity.

    If that cabinet became reality – would NATO have grounds to kick out the US as a clear and present danger? A country, with more than enough nukes to End It All, run by crazy people, and it’s NOT Russia?

  279. 279.

    pamelabrown53

    November 7, 2016 at 1:16 pm

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: #270
    Re the NYC panhandler: ” Give me a dollar or I’ll vote for Trump”. Wouldn’t be surprised if he has a record haul that will sustain him for months!

  280. 280.

    Bill E Pilgrim

    November 7, 2016 at 1:16 pm

    Rudy: “Lock her up! Lock her up! Everyone, altogether! Lock her up! Lock her up!”

    Excuse me Mr Guiliani? You’ve been appointed Attorney General.

    I wonder if he’d even pause the chanting while he got sworn in.

  281. 281.

    Roger Moore

    November 7, 2016 at 1:16 pm

    @karen marie:

    I should have said “overconfidence” or “complacency.”

    The problem is that those kinds of problems are hard to diagnose except in retrospect. If your results trail expectations, you got overconfident or complacent; if you exceeded expectations, your supporters were energized by the prospect of victory. Unless somebody can show me a way of telling in advance when we’re moving from one to the other, I think they’re just narrative tools to explain events post hoc.

  282. 282.

    dedc79

    November 7, 2016 at 1:18 pm

    Michael Tracey is sprinting past Fournier, Cillizza, Halperin, Mitchell, Noonan, Brooks into first place for my World’s Worst “Journalist” award:

    Trump might be better than Hillary on foreign policy (my top issue), but he’s far too volatile to conclude that with any certainty, and he may well end up being catastrophically worse. The Clintons’ outrageous stoking of a war fervor over Russia is quite simply depraved and should disqualify them from reentering the White House.

    Hillary’s ever-growing tangle of legal problems was long ago written off by Democrats as a “nothingburger,” but now it could cost her the election. There’d be some poetic justice to this eventuality, even if the consequence were the empowerment of an ill-tempered ogre who could easily take the country over the cliff with a single late-night tweet.

    And yes, this supposed liberal BernieBro is now writing for The American Conservative and his twitter feed has become a favored stomping ground for deplorables.

  283. 283.

    Major Major Major Major

    November 7, 2016 at 1:20 pm

    @Rommie: I did not know there was such a creature in the bestiary. That would work. There would still have to be something to explain how he got this far though. I maintain that he’s a bard.

  284. 284.

    Roger Moore

    November 7, 2016 at 1:20 pm

    @Terry chay:

    we didn’t do anything, the CAGOP did it to themselves.

    I think you’re underestimating the CA Democrats. Yeah, the Republicans did a lot to self-destruct, but the Democrats denied them a chance to recover. We kept our promises to minority voters and showed people what good government looks like. That isn’t as sexy as some people like, but those kinds of things are the main way a party builds for the long term.

  285. 285.

    GrandJury

    November 7, 2016 at 1:22 pm

    @hovercraft: No. His right wing grift ran out of steam is all.

    Maybe he’s gonna try grift the left now. Don’t think there is as much money in it though.

    Speaking of left wing grifters, where has Cole’s dreamy favorite Greenwald been lately?

  286. 286.

    Roger Moore

    November 7, 2016 at 1:22 pm

    @Major Major Major Major:

    these elves, they control the media, they control the gold supply…

    I thought it was the Gnomes of Zurich who controlled the gold supply.

  287. 287.

    germy

    November 7, 2016 at 1:22 pm

    @GrandJury: shomi the way to go home.

  288. 288.

    Matt McIrvin

    November 7, 2016 at 1:23 pm

    @hovercraft: I just heard Penn Jillette voted for Clinton. (After getting guarantees from a bunch of fans in deep-blue states that they’d vote for Gary Johnson to give him his precious 5%.)

  289. 289.

    Bill E Pilgrim

    November 7, 2016 at 1:25 pm

    @dedc79: I have one or two friends who I always saw as extreme left wing, and when I asked recently why they remained so anti-Hillary, while everyone from Chomsky to Michael Moore has now said look, with Trump the only alternative, Clinton simply has to be elected — the answer I got wasn’t based on anything about policy or war but basically the extreme right wing Alex Jones fever swamp standards.

  290. 290.

    Roger Moore

    November 7, 2016 at 1:27 pm

    @Matt McIrvin:

    He couldn’t have gotten anywhere without that, though. It was also the day he won the nomination and came within shouting distance of the presidency.

    This. People keep acting as if it’s a total coincidence that the person who did the best job of representing the Republican id was a bigoted knownothing, when it’s precisely his bigotry and braying ignorance that were so attractive to the Republican base.

  291. 291.

    Major Major Major Major

    November 7, 2016 at 1:28 pm

    @Bill E Pilgrim: Some things in politics wrap all the way around from far right to far left.

  292. 292.

    sukabi

    November 7, 2016 at 1:30 pm

    @J R in WV: why is the beer warm & salty…tastes like piss.

  293. 293.

    Tazj

    November 7, 2016 at 1:31 pm

    @dedc79: For a while, I just thought he was a conservative troll. I never heard of him before and just saw his obnoxious tweets showing up everywhere. It took me some time to find out who he was because I didn’t care to know.

  294. 294.

    dedc79

    November 7, 2016 at 1:31 pm

    @Bill E Pilgrim: I guess we have more of a political circle than a spectrum.

  295. 295.

    hovercraft

    November 7, 2016 at 1:32 pm

    FFS what the f**k is wrong with these people. Hallie Jackson just asked Jean Shaheen if Obama stumping in NH today means that Hillary is lacking support among Bernie voters, if she had the support she needs she wouldn’t need to send her big surrogates out to excite her base. Earlier they were saying that she is desperate/scared and that is why she is campaigning in Pittsburgh and Ann Arbor, now she’s desperate for deploying her assets? What the hell is she supposed to do, sit in Brooklyn or Chappaqua and wait for the returns to come in? If she campaigns they criticize, if she doesn’t she is overconfident, she can’t win for losing with these f**kwads!!

  296. 296.

    Bill E Pilgrim

    November 7, 2016 at 1:33 pm

    @hovercraft:

    He actually lost the election on the day he slid down the escalator and called Mexicans murderers and rapists.

    When you look at it now that moment already looks different with the perspective of time.

    https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/795414203960061952

  297. 297.

    different-church-lady

    November 7, 2016 at 1:33 pm

    @GrandJury:

    Speaking of left wing grifters, where has Cole’s dreamy favorite Greenwald been lately?

    Oh, here.

  298. 298.

    daveNYC

    November 7, 2016 at 1:35 pm

    At least Newt is a semi-borderline-competent choice for SoS. Not good by any stretch, but not likely to lead to the end of civilization.

    Fuck the fact that there’s around a 25% of any of this happening.

  299. 299.

    different-church-lady

    November 7, 2016 at 1:35 pm

    @hovercraft:

    Hallie Jackson just asked Jean Shaheen if Obama stumping in NH today means that Hillary is lacking support among Bernie voters…

    Jackson is aware there’s a tight senate race in NH, yes?

  300. 300.

    Bill E Pilgrim

    November 7, 2016 at 1:38 pm

    @Major Major Major Major:
    @dedc79:

    I was pondering what concluding line to add to what I wrote but decided to leave it off, but both of those are about what I was thinking.

  301. 301.

    Major Major Major Major

    November 7, 2016 at 1:38 pm

    @different-church-lady: DeBoer is the fucking worst.

  302. 302.

    catclub

    November 7, 2016 at 1:39 pm

    @pamelabrown53: That interview seemed very incomplete. The only relevant point was saying that Michelle Obama’s speech was excellent. Not mentioned was much in the way of how he is a better person for it.
    It could be because that is hard to express, or just bad interview technique.

  303. 303.

    catclub

    November 7, 2016 at 1:42 pm

    @GrandJury:

    where has Cole’s dreamy favorite Greenwald been lately?

    There is a funny quote from GG over at LGM. LGM is mocking him. Now you know.

  304. 304.

    Unknown known (formerly known as Ecks, former formerly completely unknown)

    November 7, 2016 at 1:43 pm

    @Peale:

    Basket of deplorables is his followers
    Basket case is his cabinet.

  305. 305.

    hovercraft

    November 7, 2016 at 1:44 pm

    Trump Makes Play For ‘Amazing’ Latino Community On Election Eve
    Via TPM

    Noticing a “Blacks for Trump” sign in the crowd, Trump said “One of the things they are seeing in a couple of these states like Florida, African-Americans are not turning out and when they do, a lot of them are voting for Trump. This is very disturbing to the other side.”

    According to the GOP nominee, “the same is going to be true with Hispanics.” Trump pointed to an endorsement from the veterans of the failed 1961 Bay of Pigs invasion as proof, saying “the Cubans gave me the award.”

    The real estate mogul praised Florida’s “amazing, incredible Hispanic American community” and promised to be a “friend and champion” to voters from Venezuela, Cuba and Puerto Rico. He pledged to help Cuba “in the fight against the Castro regime” and to support Venezuela in their struggle “for freedom.”

    Speaking of the voters he met in Miami’s Little Haiti over the weekend, Trump said, “They are such warm, great people, by the way. Warm, great people. I spent a lot of time with them; they hate the Clintons.”

    Can you all please join me in prayer to the FSM Pasta Goddess and ask her to place someone with a camera next to this Shittgibbon tomorrow night to record him as he watches the election returns. Please FSM, please.

  306. 306.

    catclub

    November 7, 2016 at 1:45 pm

    @trollhattan: 1. I got no idea. Best guess is laziness. 2. No 3. No

  307. 307.

    Jesse

    November 7, 2016 at 1:46 pm

    @Face: You don’t know shit about mathematical models, do you?

    “The uncertainty is small because… I want it to be small!”

  308. 308.

    David ?▶️?Blue Wall?▶️? Koch

    November 7, 2016 at 1:46 pm

    Charles Manson for HHS
    Jack da Ripper for the Fed

  309. 309.

    Matt McIrvin

    November 7, 2016 at 1:46 pm

    @Bill E Pilgrim: There was a chunk of the anti-Bush coalition that was never actually left or liberal in any coherent sense, but got classed as left because they were antiwar or anti-national-security-state, and they were useful allies. Those people had mostly left the Obama coalition by 2012, for a combination of legitimate and silly reasons, and a bunch of them basically got sucked into the alt-right swamp.

    Similarly, there was a chunk of the economy/finance radical left who were always basically nursing fantasies out of 1930s antisemitic propaganda, and things like Trump’s last ad are like catnip to them.

  310. 310.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    November 7, 2016 at 1:48 pm

    @hovercraft: the one thing Conway and Ivanka can’t teach him is how to talk about minorities in terms of us/them

  311. 311.

    Brachiator

    November 7, 2016 at 1:48 pm

    @schrodinger’s cat:

    I don’t think its the kids that are voting 3rd party. According to my anecdata the most diehard Berners were of boomer age.

    Who knows?

    There will be loads of fun going over the exit polls and who voted etc after the election. There might be a few shocks to conventional wisdom.

  312. 312.

    Tilda Swinton's Bald Cap

    November 7, 2016 at 1:49 pm

    @hovercraft: Clinton Rules !

  313. 313.

    Peale

    November 7, 2016 at 1:49 pm

    @dedc79: Yes. When Putin runs an election based on HE’s the STRONG MAN WHO is keeping the US at bay, he’s just stating the truth. But oh my! A US candidate who does that is leading us to a spiraling doom!

    Chrsit, there is nothing in Trump’s campaign that makes one think that he could form some kind of durable relationship with another man who wants to whip out his dick and have a pissing contest with him. Yet, Hillary just simply will let everything spiral out of control and BOOM BOOM BOOM MUSHROOM CLOUD.

  314. 314.

    pamelabrown53

    November 7, 2016 at 1:51 pm

    @catclub: 302
    No doubt you’re correct. Still it did my heart good to hear one of the most certifiable wingnuts admit that Michelle Obama touhed his black, frozen heart.

  315. 315.

    Unknown known (formerly known as Ecks, former formerly completely unknown)

    November 7, 2016 at 1:51 pm

    @The Moar You Know:

    I hesitate to slander the Nazis by comparison because at least they had a plan that involved a bit more than “stealing everything that isn’t nailed down”.

    No, that was pretty much a big part of their plan too.

  316. 316.

    different-church-lady

    November 7, 2016 at 1:51 pm

    @Major Major Major Major: It’s inevitable he will eventually reach his “liberals turned me into a conservative” moment.

  317. 317.

    GrandJury

    November 7, 2016 at 1:51 pm

    @Brachiator: Only if you want to call horse race journalism the ‘conventional wisdom’. So bullshit like PA being in play but never is. Latinos showing up but never happens. It being a close race but it’s not really. Nevada being a surprise but it’s not because it’s the same under reported voting by the left every time.

  318. 318.

    Major Major Major Major

    November 7, 2016 at 1:53 pm

    @different-church-lady: Good call.

  319. 319.

    Peale

    November 7, 2016 at 1:54 pm

    @catclub: That has to be the most goddamned nonsensical whackaloon analysis of the state of our polity that I can imagine. How do you even arrive at that opinion? Yea, he lives in Brazil. DeBeor, though? Does he live under the sea somewhere?

  320. 320.

    hovercraft

    November 7, 2016 at 1:56 pm

    The NC GOP is very excited about the results of the just ended early voting.
    Per their press release:

    Democrats, on the other hand, are seeing decreased number in Early Voting in 58 out of 100 counties when compared to their performance in 2012.

    “The media myth of ‘Clinton’s superior Get Out The Vote’ operation has not panned out when compared to 2012,” said Chairman Robin Hayes. “I am encouraged by the excitement and work ethic of our volunteers and the numbers don’t lie—the Republican ground game is showing that motivated statewide volunteers and extensive ground game are better indicators of electoral success than the number of candidate-specific offices one has. Further, the connected weaknesses of Hillary Clinton, Deborah Ross, and Roy Cooper when combined with the clear Democrat voter apathy, shows the once dynamic Obama Coalition crumbling and tired.” Chairman Hayes continued.

    North Carolina Obama Coalition Crumbling

    African American Early Voting is down 8.5% from this time in 2012.

    Caucasian voters early voting is up 22.5% from this time in 2012.

    As a share of Early Voters, African Americans are down 6.0%, (2012: 28.9%, 2016: 22.9%) and Caucasians are up 4.2%, (2012: 65.8%, 2016: 70.0%).

    Young Voters Weak on Clinton

    Age 65 are up 155,440, with vote share increasing from 22.1% to 24.6%.

    You’ve got to love a party that truly has no shame. They are bragging about the success of their voter suppression efforts. The memo was an invite to the press to review the fine work they did this election.

  321. 321.

    Major Major Major Major

    November 7, 2016 at 1:57 pm

    @Peale: DeBoer is a complete fucking idiot who went to grad school, so he can articulately express his nonsensical bullshit, so people keep quoting him as some sort of articulate iconoclast contrarian liberal. He’s like how when they need an articulate iconoclast contrarian conservative they go for Andrew Sullivan, but much much worse.

  322. 322.

    different-church-lady

    November 7, 2016 at 1:57 pm

    @GrandJury:

    Latinos showing up but never happens.

    Holy fuckin’ GOD, dude, there is actual evidence on the ground they’ve already turned out in numbers higher than 2012. Is ignoring it part of the jollies you get from getting under people’s skin?

  323. 323.

    Roger Moore

    November 7, 2016 at 1:59 pm

    @Matt McIrvin:
    I think there are other kinds of bigots on the economic left- racists, sexists, etc.- who have made common cause with the rest of the Democratic party but see electing a minority, woman, LGBTQ person, etc. as unacceptable. I think most of the people in that category have been squeezed out over time- they either got on board with the whole Democratic diversity platform or crossed over to the Republicans and started accepting their economic stupidity- but there are enough of them left to make a big stink and seem more important than they actually are.

  324. 324.

    hovercraft

    November 7, 2016 at 2:04 pm

    Memo from the NC GOP.

    The other factor which shows drastic change from 2012 is the significant decrease in Democrat Party performance during Early Voting. This may finally prove the myth pushed by many mainstream media outlets of the superior Clinton get out the vote operation, as measured by the number of Clinton-specific offices in comparison to Trump-specific offices. The vaulted Clinton ground game has been buried in North Carolina by the Republican effort, thus far……

    With a total of 3,095,829 ballots cast, Early Voting finished up with an increase of 373,991 ballots or 14.6% from 2012.

    In comparing to 2012, the gap between Republicans and Democrats has shrunk by 144,637.

    Republican ballots cast (AB Returns + Early Votes) are currently up 122,349, while Democrat ballots cast are down by 22,288.

    Democrats are down 1.5% from 2012 and Republicans are up by 20.2%.

    Unaffiliated voters are also up by a large margin (43.9%).

    North Carolina Obama Coalition Crumbling

    African American Early Voting is down 8.5% from this time in 2012.

    Caucasian voters early voting is up 22.5% from this time in 2012.

    As a share of Early Voters, African Americans are down 6.0%, (2012: 28.9%, 2016: 22.9%) and Caucasians are up 4.2%, (2012: 65.8%, 2016: 70.0%).

    Young Voters Weak on Clinton

    Age 65 are up 155,440, with vote share increasing from 22.1% to 24.6%.

    ETA: This is the GOP in 2016, celebrating the success of their voter suppression efforts. They must be so proud.

  325. 325.

    The gray adder

    November 7, 2016 at 2:06 pm

    @Face: If Henry Kissinger can be Secretary of State, and Bobby Kennedy the AG, qhy not? I think the only office Bill would be ineligible for would be Vice President.

    Attorney General Bill Clinton has a nice ring to it.

  326. 326.

    GrandJury

    November 7, 2016 at 2:06 pm

    @different-church-lady: Sign….

    Which means what exactly? Nothing…at this point….other than more Latinos voting early.

    I don’t even know why I am wasting keystrokes on your people. Every pollster bakes it into their models. Go argue with them about it and tell them they are all wrong…lol.

  327. 327.

    Jeffro

    November 7, 2016 at 2:06 pm

    HOLY COW: even Glenn Beck is seeing the light

    (geez, Mrs. Obama, if you can do this for the country, can we just sign you up for 2024 right now?)

    Choice quote:

    Glenn Beck clicked on a video of Michelle Obama campaigning for Hillary Clinton in a New Hampshire gymnasium. The First Lady ripped into Trump’s comments, calling them “disgraceful” and “intolerable,” and adding, “It doesn’t matter what party you belong to—Democrat, Republican, Independent—no woman deserves to be treated this way.” Beck was mesmerized. On his radio program that day, he heralded Obama’s remarks as “the most effective political speech I have heard since Ronald Reagan.”

    “Those words hit me where I live,” Beck said the other day. He was speedwalking up Eighth Avenue with his wife, son, and daughter, all in from Toronto. “If you’re a decent human being, those words were dead on.”

    Decency is a fresh palette for Beck, who, at Fox, used to scribble on a chalkboard while launching into conspiratorial rants about looming Weimar-esque hyperinflation, Barack Obama’s ties to radicals with population-cleansing schemes, and a Marxist-Islamist cabal itching to take over America. He once described Clinton as “a stereotypical bitch” and accused Obama of being a racist with a “deep-seated hatred for white people.”

    That was the old Beck, he insists: “I did a lot of freaking out about Barack Obama.” But, he said, “Obama made me a better man.” He regrets calling the President a racist and counts himself a Black Lives Matter supporter. “There are things unique to the African-American experience that I cannot relate to,” he said. “I had to listen to them.”

  328. 328.

    Jeffro

    November 7, 2016 at 2:08 pm

    @daveNYC:

    Fuck the fact that there’s around a 25% of any of this [Trump victory, Gingrich as Sos] happening.

    1-5% chance, c’mon man! ;)

  329. 329.

    Amir Khalid

    November 7, 2016 at 2:09 pm

    Trump’s list of proposed Cabinet secretaries, if it is indeed his list, is the most mental, facepalm-inducing such thing I have ever seen.

    By the way, I’d been repeatedly updating this thread for hours when a question suddenly occurred to me: how many Es are there in “tabletop”? (I’m not nitpicking anyone’s spelling, honest.)

  330. 330.

    CarolDuhart2

    November 7, 2016 at 2:10 pm

    @pamelabrown53: Also, a lot of non-Cuban Hispanics have immigrated to Florida in the last years. Dominicans, Puerto Ricans, Venezuelans, et al. And Cubans, the further away from the Revolution, the more concern about local issues.

  331. 331.

    Barbara

    November 7, 2016 at 2:10 pm

    @burnspbesq: Yes, but who refused to change the bankruptcy code to allow Puerto Rico to deal more rationally with its debts and avoid a long-term but slow motion catastrophe? That would be the current Congress. That is what is driving the recent, heavy, emigration to Florida. One of the reasons the pharma provision was repealed was that it did not really provide that many jobs and its cost was enormous. It would have been better for the Treasury to keep the money and give it to Puerto Rico.

  332. 332.

    Jesse

    November 7, 2016 at 2:10 pm

    @hovercraft: It’ll be funny if HRC manages to take NC anyway.

    “African American Early Voting is down 8.5% from this time in 2012.” And there’s no systemic reason for that, amirite? Pricks.

  333. 333.

    different-church-lady

    November 7, 2016 at 2:11 pm

    @GrandJury:

    I don’t even know why I am wasting keystrokes on your people.

    Neither do we.

  334. 334.

    Elizabelle

    November 7, 2016 at 2:12 pm

    @hovercraft: a lot of Raleigh voters tried to vote early last week, and encountered hours-long lines.

    On the positive side, splendid weather. Clear, sunny and gorgeous. With fall foliage out.

    My fingers are crossed. We had so many canvass volunteers this weekend that we ran short on walk packets. A young British woman showed up to walk doors today. And I have yet to see a Republican out canvassing the turf. Just signs and bumper stickers. None of which breathe or vote.

  335. 335.

    Brachiator

    November 7, 2016 at 2:13 pm

    @Major Major Major Major:

    DeBoer is the fucking worst.

    He’s got my vote.

  336. 336.

    geg6

    November 7, 2016 at 2:14 pm

    @SenyorDave:

    That was my fervent wish when voting against Reagan and W. But I didn’t really mean it as much as I thought I did at the time. With Trump? I not only wish it, but I’m willing to do my part to make it happen.

  337. 337.

    Jesse

    November 7, 2016 at 2:14 pm

    @Jeffro: FLOTUS has awesome powers. And, actually, I have to say good on Glenn Beck (!) for paying attention. Still too into Skousen, though.

  338. 338.

    Gin & Tonic

    November 7, 2016 at 2:17 pm

    @Amir Khalid: What’s the nickname for the WV football team?

  339. 339.

    Roger Moore

    November 7, 2016 at 2:17 pm

    @GrandJury:

    I don’t even know why I am wasting keystrokes on your people.

    Feel free to stop any time.

  340. 340.

    ? Martin

    November 7, 2016 at 2:17 pm

    @dmsilev: Nate points to two things:

    1) There weren’t nearly as many people being polled that still said they were uncertain who to vote for. For instance, CBC shows C+4, but at 45% with 9% undecided. That was through yesterday. ABC C+4, 47%, 6% undecided. If that undecided is Rs yet to come home, she loses. If that undecided is millennials uncertain if they want to throw a vote away on Stein and come to Clinton, she wins. If they break evenly, she wins. Q is the only poll that I see that has her at 50%. Obama had a number of polls at or above 50% the day before the election. His gap was small, but the electorate was certain.

    2) Nate has also said that some pollsters include early vote data in their models, but not all do. So that just means that the public polls are pretty noisy.

    The party internals are likely better, and everything we’re hearing is that both campaigns show Clinton up more than the public polls show.

  341. 341.

    gogol's wife

    November 7, 2016 at 2:17 pm

    @MCA1:

    I hope you mean Humbert Humbert, not Humperdinck! I never heard anything of the kind about Engelbert Humperdinck, either one of them!

  342. 342.

    gogol's wife

    November 7, 2016 at 2:18 pm

    @MCA1:

    Other than that, I agree with you completely.

  343. 343.

    Patricia Kayden

    November 7, 2016 at 2:18 pm

    @hovercraft:

    Speaking of the voters he met in Miami’s Little Haiti over the weekend, Trump said, “They are such warm, great people, by the way. Warm, great people. I spent a lot of time with them; they hate the Clintons.”

    Ha! So Trump thinks the majority of Haitians hate the Clintons so much that they’ll vote for him over Secretary Clinton. He should ask my in-laws about that. They would laugh in his Orange bigoted face.

  344. 344.

    Ruckus

    November 7, 2016 at 2:19 pm

    @Matt McIrvin:

    And this is the trap that the Republican Party finds itself in.

    Which is entirely self made and which they enjoy being in. Because they don’t think it’s a trap and that they agree with it in it’s entirety.

  345. 345.

    chopper

    November 7, 2016 at 2:19 pm

    i’m gonna build my own white house, with blackjack and hookers! in fact, forget the white house!

  346. 346.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    November 7, 2016 at 2:20 pm

    @hovercraft: Ben White writes for Politico, the most Establishment, I believe, media outlet ever made, in no small part because they have hoovered half the Village into its bowels

    Ben White ‏@ morningmoneyben 1h1 hour ago
    This is just sickening. They worked hard to make this happen.

    Did Politico, which i admit I rarely look at, do a big deep dive into voter suppression schemes that Left Blogosphere ignored? The Washington Post? CBS? I know MSNBC sometimes brings it up on weekend mornings, or when Chris Hayes is done talking to AJ Delgado, Michael Steele and Ben fucking Shapiro.

  347. 347.

    Patricia Kayden

    November 7, 2016 at 2:20 pm

    @Elizabelle:

    A young British woman showed up to walk doors today.

    O-o. There goes those pesky foreigners interfering with our elections again. /s

  348. 348.

    Peale

    November 7, 2016 at 2:21 pm

    @GrandJury: I’m still willing to bet that the Latino turnout % will be up vs. 2012. +3.5%. Take it or leave it.

  349. 349.

    J R in WV

    November 7, 2016 at 2:22 pm

    @sukabi:

    My grandmother (a Baptist) always said that beer tasted like they needed to run it through the horse one more time… which got her point across without any cuss words.

  350. 350.

    Brachiator

    November 7, 2016 at 2:24 pm

    @The gray adder:

    If Henry Kissinger can be Secretary of State, and Bobby Kennedy the AG, qhy not? I think the only office Bill would be ineligible for would be Vice President.

    Attorney General Bill Clinton has a nice ring to it.

    I don’t know. Bill looks old and tired now and almost ready to be put out to pasture.

    I know that some people are swooning over the idea of “Bill and Hillary together again in the White House,” but I am not all that excited about the idea. I think that we may see more situations in which the spouse of a president is a former president or other high ranking government official, but there can be problems keeping these people in formal positions of power and authority, including the obvious nepotism and potential conflicts of interest,

  351. 351.

    GrandJury

    November 7, 2016 at 2:25 pm

    @Peale: Probably because there are 3.5% more eligible latino voters. It won’t be up 3.5% as a percentage of eligible latino voters. Will be around the same give or take. Dismal as usual.

    That is why ALL polsters bake that in. Go argue with them and tell them they are all wrong…lol.

  352. 352.

    Ruckus

    November 7, 2016 at 2:25 pm

    @SenyorDave:

    He is almost as close to a worthless human as possible.

    I’d bet there are a number of people on this earth that would say this is way too high of praise for tRump. He is less than worthless, he is costly in every way. Ethics, success, prosperity, morals……..

  353. 353.

    Brachiator

    November 7, 2016 at 2:30 pm

    @hovercraft:

    Cokie Roberts: Only ‘Birth Control’ Could Control Latino Vote For GOP

    What a nasty woman.

  354. 354.

    Roger Moore

    November 7, 2016 at 2:30 pm

    @Face:
    I think the ideal role for Bill would be a sort of roving goodwill ambassador. He wouldn’t have a formal role in the government beyond First Dude, but he’d be perfect to send anywhere Hillary can’t go in person. As former president and spouse of the current president, he’d have some gravitas, but he couldn’t commit her to anything.

  355. 355.

    Lizzy L

    November 7, 2016 at 2:31 pm

    @Brachiator: Agree. I think he will be her chief adviser, just as she was his. But a formal position is a bad idea, and he does, indeed, look pretty worn out.

    Re phone banking: I signed up to do an hour of calls to support the Senate candidates, but the call tool is not providing me with any names/number to call! Maybe they’ve simply got it covered — more than enough volunteers. I’ll keep checking in, but damn, if that’s the case, the D ground game is fantastic. I’m proud to be a part of it.

  356. 356.

    Bill E Pilgrim

    November 7, 2016 at 2:31 pm

    @Matt McIrvin: Yeah, meh but one of the guys I’m talking about for example was just your run of the mill liberal, in his sixties, been standard issue left wing liberal artist since the 1960s, so neither of the things you’re describing. He was left wing long before it had anything to do with Bush. And he’s Jewish.

    He’s just drifted into la la land in the last few years, the first thing I noticed was that he was a 9/11 truther, so I think conspiracy theorizing came first, specifically right-wing conspiracy theory consuming came later. It really seems mostly like just Hillary derangement syndrome, in someone who’d already weakened his critical thinking skills by swallowing conspiracy theories that weren’t particularly right wing.

  357. 357.

    Patricia Kayden

    November 7, 2016 at 2:32 pm

    @hovercraft: Nice that the GOP is celebrating the closures of multiple offices in Black majority communities. Then they wonder why Blacks don’t vote for them.

    Hope they lose NC despite the obvious attempt to depress Black votes.

  358. 358.

    Tripod

    November 7, 2016 at 2:32 pm

    Where does Felix Steiner slot in his cabinet?

  359. 359.

    jimmiraybob

    November 7, 2016 at 2:32 pm

    “I don’t know if there is a word for something that is both hilarious and horrifying,…”

    I believe that it’s fuckenshittendoomenspiel. As in, “Holy fuckenshittendoomenspiel I need a Mazel Tov cocktail – make it a triple.”

  360. 360.

    Chyron HR

    November 7, 2016 at 2:33 pm

    @GrandJury:

    I HATE STUPID PANTS WETTING BALL JUICERS WHO ARE TOO OPTIMISTIC!!!1

    Thanks 4 sharing.

  361. 361.

    Gravenstone

    November 7, 2016 at 2:35 pm

    @Mike J: That’s 325k votes in a state that Obama took by barely 70k in 2012. Amazeballs!

  362. 362.

    Face

    November 7, 2016 at 2:36 pm

    Speaking of poll numbers and methodology, TPM claims to use an aggregate of polls to get its numbers. Yet it currently shows NM as a toss up (HRC +0.7 or some such BS) despite these poll numbers. I dont get it….if none of the polls they use show the race any closer than 2-3 pts, how can the aggregate value be less than 1?

  363. 363.

    Joel

    November 7, 2016 at 2:38 pm

    @karen marie: there is no proof that excessive optimism depresses the vote. and honestly, it doesn’t make much sense as a hypothesis. I think a bandwagon effect is much more likely than a “tortoise and hare” effect.

    anecdotally, i would argue that excess optimism seems to dampen fundraising. my justification for this is the scare-tactic emails (usually relying on the least-favorable set of polling) that democrats love to resort to when asking for money.

  364. 364.

    ? Martin

    November 7, 2016 at 2:39 pm

    @GrandJury: Are you unaware of the ~20% increase in latino voter registration going into this election? We saw these same trends starting in the 1996 election when latino turnout started started to climb rapidly. Are you aware of the significance of 1996?

  365. 365.

    Keith G

    November 7, 2016 at 2:41 pm

    @Nina:

    On the other hand, I have the feeling that Hillary’s staff has a full list of contingencies for each Cabinet position

    A difference, and a big one, between the future and current POTUS is that Obama valued excellence over loyalty. He hired the best and won their absolute loyalty. It seems that the Clinton’s tend to hire the most loyal, with excellence and common sense being secondary. That leads to trouble.

  366. 366.

    SiubhanDuinne

    November 7, 2016 at 2:41 pm

    @Roger Moore:

    I think the ideal role for Bill would be a sort of roving goodwill ambassador. He wouldn’t have a formal role in the government beyond First Dude, but he’d be perfect to send anywhere Hillary can’t go in person.

    I’ve thought for a while now that this kind of “Minister Without Portfolio” role would be tailor-made for Bill. I’d really hate to see his experience and talents go unused out of an irrational fear of his unique ability to attract a certain amount of mayhem. Put him to work and let him do what he enjoys and what he’s good at. Win for him, win for Hillary, win for the country.

  367. 367.

    Calouste

    November 7, 2016 at 2:41 pm

    @Brachiator: Bill can take over part of the funeral duties of the VP. He knows most of those people anyway. Leaves Kaine some more time to learn the ropes and prepare for Kaine 2024.

  368. 368.

    Ruckus

    November 7, 2016 at 2:46 pm

    @hovercraft:

    FFS what the f**k is wrong with these people

    A question for the ages. I’d pull out the old tag, racists, and that’s probably good enough but I think it doesn’t actually go far enough to describe them. Conservatives want a life they think was better at some point in time. 1950, 1850….. They didn’t have to be alive then to think it was better and if they were alive they didn’t have to actually have it better. In their minds eye things were/are better when conservatives run the place. We of course know better, that even liberals that we think stunk up the place in some way did a better job. LBJ is a prime example. The legislation he championed/signed was way over due, didn’t go far enough, was ground breathtakingly positive. But he also got us way too deep into Vietnam. (for raven, and myself, and I’m sure others – Fuck LBJ)
    Lots and lots of humans are low information beings. Their minds are made up and facts or reality can’t change that. They want things a certain way, no matter the cost, no matter that it doesn’t help or even hurts them personally. I just checked out FB and a friend posted a question, describe Trump in 2 words. The majority are along the lines we here at BJ central would give, but some fall into the vein of Mr. President. I looked to see if there was anyone I needed to unfriend.

  369. 369.

    Bill E Pilgrim

    November 7, 2016 at 2:46 pm

    @catclub: Yeah it’s odd how people are downplaying the effect this is going to have. It’s not going to reverse the damage Comey caused entirely, there’s no way, I mean people already voted. However I think people are overlooking how many undecideds were susceptible to thinking “Oh great, we’re going to elect someone about to be indicted”, I mean look at how her polls went down. Hearing that this was all bullshit and is over is going to have at least some effect in the other direction on the vote, and the markets are reacting to knowing that.

    I keep hearing pundits too clever for their own good saying that the Clinton campaign didn’t want this news because it makes the subject emails again — oy. No the campaign doesn’t want to dwell on the subject themselves these last two days, but you can be certain they thought it was great news, at least given the hideous news a week earlier.

  370. 370.

    The Lodger

    November 7, 2016 at 2:48 pm

    @MuckJagger: If you run for President in 2020 with the same name as you used to sign the letter, please pick Reggie White as your running mate. I may not vote for you, but I’d definitely buy a couple of bumper stickers.

  371. 371.

    The Lodger

    November 7, 2016 at 2:53 pm

    @Major Major Major Major: Two pounds of dice? That could make for an interesting game. Do you have a trebuchet?

  372. 372.

    Ruckus

    November 7, 2016 at 2:55 pm

    @Amir Khalid:

    how many Es are there in “tabletop”?

    How many do you want? We can fly them right on over to you. For the low, low price of $500 ea., freight and taxes not included.

  373. 373.

    Major Major Major Major

    November 7, 2016 at 2:56 pm

    @The Lodger: A pound of dice is actually surprisingly small. You can only cast a couple fireballs at once.

  374. 374.

    Ruckus

    November 7, 2016 at 2:59 pm

    @Roger Moore:
    Maybe we just need to show him the exit sign. Maybe the bouncer could throw his ass out through the door.

  375. 375.

    notoriousJRT

    November 7, 2016 at 3:00 pm

    @Chris:
    Interior

  376. 376.

    Peale

    November 7, 2016 at 3:02 pm

    @Keith G: Because Leon Panetta was the best man to head the CIA? And lord knows everybody loved Tim Geithner?

  377. 377.

    Ruckus

    November 7, 2016 at 3:07 pm

    @SiubhanDuinne:
    How about we let him retire and relax? I think he’s earned it and it’s not like he’s 22 any more.

  378. 378.

    Roger Moore

    November 7, 2016 at 3:18 pm

    @Keith G:
    Two points:

    1) I think Clinton’s 2016 campaign machine should put some of your worries to rest. She ditched a lot of the old faithful retainers- or at least pushed them into less important roles- and hired the best people from the Obama machine. She is capable of learning, and she’s spent the past 8 years learning from Obama.

    2) Valuing excellence over loyalty has its own set of pitfalls. See Comey, James.

  379. 379.

    No One You Know

    November 7, 2016 at 3:21 pm

    @…now I try to be amused: House of Cards.

  380. 380.

    John D.

    November 7, 2016 at 3:21 pm

    @Face: That has to be a bug of some kind — it shows Trump at 45.2% with literally NO poll having him at 45% or higher. Removing ZiaPoll from the dataset seems to fix it, but that leaves very few polls. I suspect that there is a typo in the underlying data somewhere.

  381. 381.

    Brachiator

    November 7, 2016 at 3:39 pm

    @GrandJury:

    Only if you want to call horse race journalism the ‘conventional wisdom’. So bullshit like PA being in play but never is. Latinos showing up but never happens. It being a close race but it’s not really. Nevada being a surprise but it’s not because it’s the same under reported voting by the left every time.

    It’s only horse race journalism for people who love the fact that the polls are pointing to a Clinton victory, but who would be bawling like babies if the polling went against her. I absolutely support Clinton, but I tire of people using polls as a security blanket and then bashing the media.

    Would you prefer to see this every day in the media: “Hillary”s got it. Why bother showing up to vote?”

    But you missed my larger point. People who want to blow off resistant BernieBros as being mainly tired (mainly male) baby boomers are making a big mistake.

    If PA was never in play, why would either candidate spend time there?

  382. 382.

    catclub

    November 7, 2016 at 3:40 pm

    @? Martin: Are you aware of the significance of 1996?

    Turn it upside down and you still get a number? unlike 1754

  383. 383.

    catclub

    November 7, 2016 at 3:41 pm

    @Brachiator:

    If PA was never in play, why would either candidate spend time there?

    The senate.

  384. 384.

    Brachiator

    November 7, 2016 at 4:04 pm

    @SiubhanDuinne:

    I’ve thought for a while now that this kind of “Minister Without Portfolio” role would be tailor-made for Bill. I’d really hate to see his experience and talents go unused out of an irrational fear of his unique ability to attract a certain amount of mayhem. Put him to work and let him do what he enjoys

    No, no, no. You can’t just let Bill run around loose doing what he enjoys. ‘Cause he would be chasing ladies all day long.

  385. 385.

    different-church-lady

    November 7, 2016 at 4:27 pm

    @Brachiator: That would be Minister Without Chaperone.

  386. 386.

    Brachiator

    November 7, 2016 at 4:41 pm

    @different-church-lady:

    That would be Minister Without Chaperone.

    On the positive side, I think that Bill will take to being First Gentleman with humor and grace.

    It’ is obviously heavily fictionalized, but the Netflix series “The Crown” deals with how Prince Phillip had to take on a formal, very public and publicly secondary role to Queen Elizabeth.

    However they arrange ceremonial, ornamental and substantial duties, I think it will be fun to watch Bill as First NonLady, and at best, the country might even learn something from a new dynamic in female/male relationships.

  387. 387.

    MCA1

    November 7, 2016 at 6:03 pm

    @gogol’s wife: Ha! Yeah, must have been thinking of that guy in the PRincess Bride instead of Nabokov’s character.

  388. 388.

    J R in WV

    November 7, 2016 at 6:13 pm

    @Gin & Tonic:

    The West Virginia Mountaineers !!!

    What did you think?

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