Please make sure everyone you know who is voting tomorrow sees this:
Updated at 10:25 PM EST
Thanks to commenter Lurkypants, here’s the link to Vote Rider’s information page with graphics on the voter ID requirements by state
Reader Interactions
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The Dangerman
Especially Pennsylvania.
ETA: And WTF, Michigan? Suddenly battleground? Not that it matters as I think Florida is a lock for Clinton. Then again, I’m road weary, so YMMV.
japa21
The judges(poll workers) in Cook County have been alerted to be very quick to prevent this.
Major Major Major Major
My mom is doing voter protection with HFA in Colorado and she says there are armed officers at the polls for the first time she can remember and people are getting questioned hard.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Larry Sabato predicts Clinton takes FL, NC and NH. He’s giving Trump OH in his model, but says it’s “closer than anyone thinks”
dmsilev
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Did he say anything about Arizona?
Baud
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: I hope the polls are skewed against us. I’d like it not to be close.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@dmsilev: He’s giving it to trump, without comment
Of course, Trump has time to offend more people
Adam L Silverman
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Michael McDonald from UF, based on the early voting #s from Cuyahoga (+ 1,000 and change/.4% over 2012) and Franklin (+25,000 plus change/12% over 2012) counties that Clinton may have enough votes banked to hold Ohio.
patroclus
Yes! Even poblano (er, Nate Silver) is beginning to see the coming wave!! We’re back to over 70% and Florida and North Carolina are going Dem, so he’s got us over 300!! Sabato at 322. Patroclus at 353!
the Conster, la Citoyenne
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
OH is closer, or the entire election?
The Dangerman
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
I say 2 out of 3. I think NC is a bridge too far.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@the Conster, la Citoyenne: Ohio
Ex-Jeb Bush aide celebrating the fact that Hispanics will deny Trump the White House. ETA: On the O’Donnell show. I’m a junkie, I’m gonna see MSNBC graphics in my dreams
ETA: No, Ana Marie Cox, Democrats have not been ‘conflicted’ about patriotism, merely the superficial definition of it.
acallidryas
My brother is a poll watcher and I’m doing GOTV in minority areas tomorrow. My mom is freaking out and has made us promise not to talk to anyone with a gun.
So no matter what happens, I’d just like to say fuck you very much to Trump for making people nervous about participating in our civic duties. Way to make America great.
amk
sam wang – Hillary 312
drew linzer – Hillary 323
Two of the most accurate predictors in 2012. It will be interesting to see who will win this time.
Also. Too. Go Hillz (and Obama).
Baud
@patroclus: I choose Patroclus!
The Dangerman
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
I want my taco truck. Now, dammit.
The Latino numbers (early voting participation, I mean) have been eye popping.
ETA: I read somplace (Rick Wilson?) that Florida early voting exceeded total 2000 voting.
joegy
Know Your Rights!
Long Live Joe Strummer!!!!
amk
@patroclus: The ‘most accurate’ LATimes agrees with you. (Never mind their trump schtupping all the time).
dmsilev
@The Dangerman:
If we don’t get our promised taco truck on every corner by let’s say the end of January, is it too soon to predict that Hillary will have failed as President?
Ian
@The Dangerman:
We can lose ALL of them and still win.
redshirt
Hillary: 1000
Trump: In cuffs
patroclus
@Baud: Even the liberal Faux News has us at 274. I wouldn’t rely on patroclus, his model’s risk weighting, poll grading and trend adjustment doesn’t have all the bells and whistles of Wang, Linzer, RCP, pollster or poblano, but he’s been fairly accurate since 1964.
Calouste
@The Dangerman: The last three polls in Michigan have all been from the three outfits that poll all 50 states (UPI/CVoter, SurveyMonkey, and IPSOS/Reuters). I think in general the 50 state polls haven’t been particularly high quality this election, but we will know more tomorrow.
Major Major Major Major
@joegy: …with guitars!
Lurkypants
Just FYI, Vote Riders has state-by-state rules on what IDs voters need to bring to the polls. voteriders.org/voter-id-info-cards
dmsilev
@amk: Yet the final edition of their infamous tracking poll has Trump up by 5 percentage points.
Major Major Major Major
@patroclus: Wang doesn’t have any bells and has maybe one whistle. Seriously, all he does is basically average things and add a carefully considered Bayesian prior. (Sort of.)
I promise I’ll shut up about Wang by next week!
chopper
@patroclus:
I guess sam wang handing him his ass got nate back into data-centric analysis.
amk
@Major Major Major Major: not average, only median.
LurkerExtraordinaire
May everyone who hasn’t voted yet encounter no problems tomorrow, especially people of color. Don’t let anyone tell you you can’t vote!
Stay safe out there everybody. I won’t be viewing/listening to anything political until tomorrow evening. LET’S DO THIS SHIT!!!!
patroclus
@Major Major Major Major: Yeah, but patroclus just looks at the states and makes a judgment on who he thinks will carry them without even a carefully considered Bayesian prior.
Omnes Omnibus
@joegy: You have the right not to be killed.
Murder is a crime – unless you’re a policeman. Or an aristocrat.
debbie
My polling place is an Orthodox synagogue, so I’m sure there will be security, but I would very much like to be able to mouth off at some idiot.
Adam L Silverman
@Lurkypants: Just put that up, with credit to you, up top as an update.
Adam L Silverman
@debbie: Here, try some of these:
yiddishradioproject.org/exhibits/stutchkoff/curses.php3
thoughtcatalog.com/nico-lang/2013/10/61-hilarious-yiddish-insults-you-need-to-know/
Major Major Major Major
@amk: well I said ‘basically’ and ‘sort of’. ?
@patroclus: if I put up a google doc would people add predictions, do you think? We could have a little pool.
p.a.
Portman in a romp in Ohio. I had heard Strickland was a strong candidate?!
hovercraft
@Adam L Silverman:
I’ll believe McDonald over Sabato, plus I like his prediction better.
Bobbo
I’m not gonna look but presumably 538’s nowcast, polls only, and polls plus should match now, right?
Miss Bianca
@Major Major Major Major: Questioned hard? Who’s questioning whom? Armed officials? Like, what, police? Or election judges are armed? I mean I heard that election officials on the Front Range were being trained for “open shooter” eventualities, but sheee-it…is this intended to be voter intimidation, or combatting voter intimidation?
(I just dropped off my ballot in a tiny room in the courthouse. No drama whatsoever.)
Omnes Omnibus
@p.a.: You heard wrong.
Adam L Silverman
@Miss Bianca: What’s an open shooter? Is it a gunsel who is inviting and pleasant and welcomes people to the massacre?
dmsilev
@Bobbo: I took a look. There’s 0.2 percent difference between the three models (71.4, 71.5, 71.6 percent). That the win probability changed by 5 percentage points in a day or so is again an indication that Nate and his team should switch their computers over to decaf.
debbie
@Adam L Silverman:
Nice! After the election, I’ll also be able to figure out what my grandfather was muttering under his breath.
Thanks!
Peale
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: no. Really. Not so much conflicted as a little baffled that it’s supposed to mean following republicans over a cliff.
amk
wapo – Barack Obama is now viewed more positively than Ronald Reagan was in 1988.
But no thanks to you, you media muthafuckers.
Miss Bianca
@Adam L Silverman: You’re terrifying me with that image.
I think I had “active shooter” and “open carry” mixed up in my head. Be easy on me, I’ve just written 2,000 words in a little over two hours and all the best words were taken. ; )
Also some of those Yiddish insults are *harsh*…
ETA: I’m off to watch the finale of “The Wire”, so y’all play nice out there on Election Eve!
patroclus
@Major Major Major Major: It may be a little late to get many responses, but I’m in. I did enter kos’ pool over at the GOS and I’m planning on winning the (probably) stale bread!
I view poblano regressing to the mean tonight very positively. Like Rasmussen, he got his clicks in the days and weeks leading into the election and now we’re getting the real view.
Major Major Major Major
@Miss Bianca: partisan poll watchers and poll workers being assholes to Latinos. The police are unrelated.
Adam L Silverman
@Miss Bianca: I reckoned you meant active shooter. As for the Yiddish insults, they are choice.
Omnes Omnibus
@Adam L Silverman: I have no idea how to pronounce any of that – except for the stuff I heard in Mel Brooks movies.
Major Major Major Major
@patroclus: sure, but that means I now hold him to the same level of esteem as Rasmussen.
Adam L Silverman
@debbie: You’re welcome.
Major Major Major Major
@Miss Bianca: police there for protection. Questioning by poll workers/self appointed poll watchers. Very tense.
Matt McIrvin
My prediction: Clinton 307, Trump 230, Jill Stein 1 from the faithless elector in Washington state. Vote suppression will give NC to Trump.
Trump will attempt to challenge the result in every state he loses, with occasional armed mobs organized by Roger Stone. Sunday-morning pundits will fret about Hillary’s troubling legitimacy crisis. Busters will hold forth on how Trump would have let Bernie win properly.
Adam L Silverman
@Omnes Omnibus: Just like its spelled. Just like its spelled.
MisterForkbeard
@Major Major Major Major: We’re doing this – some friends ds of mine have been running “mostly friendly” bets on elections since 2008. Good times.
amk
Tom Toles on the 3rd rate 4th estate.
Mary G
Ana Navarro cracks me up. She’s on CNN bashing Trump about the head and she voted for Hillary.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Mary G: I liked her endorsement essay, mostly. But considering she’s a longtime Bush ally she has a helluva nerve talking about the Clintons intermingling, politics, profit and philanthropy. At least the Clintons include philanthropy (for all I know, the Bushes are very charitable, but I’d be surprised if they were the keep-it-quiet types.)
The Dangerman
@Matt McIrvin:
I don’t think Trump’s concession will be gracious in the least…
…but I don’t see him spending the money to challenge this thing. And the RNC sure ain’t…
Trump’s going to unleash an amazing Twitter rant, but I’m guessing he goes away and is yesterdays news fairly quickly.
ETA: Hope all the professional Trumpsters cashed their checks already (or got paid in cash up front)
Bobbo
@dmsilev: thanks
amk
@efgoldman: or ‘telling it like it is’.
Mary G
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: She has a lot of clout with Florida Republicans, so I think she may lead some votes over the line right now. After tomorrow she’ll be back on the enemy side, probably, but one day at a time.
Frankensteinbeck
@Matt McIrvin:
Trump will challenge. No one will listen or care. There will be no armed mobs, because Stone is incapable of organizing one. The SS had better guard Hillary TIGHT, because there will surely be a few armed nuts, but I understand they are extremely good at that – if not necessarily anything else.
geg6
Finally. A few hours and I can finally vote. The only question is do I walk next door to my polling place before work or after work.
Omnes Omnibus
@geg6: Vote early, vote often. Do the part that is legal.
amk
I see that lil nate is racing to catch the bandwagon. His ‘model’ is changing by the hour.
Ruckus
@geg6:
Before. One less to count before we know.
amk
donnie dick called the iowans stupid during the primaries. now they are out to prove him right. morons.
Ruckus
@The Dangerman:
Not me. I hope they all trusted him to pay them in full at the end. And he stiffs each and every one of them.
amk
@Ruckus: that would be my wish too. they get nothing, nothing.
dmsilev
I have to say, this live-action reimagining of Citizen Kane has had some weird plot twists. Spoiler alert for the ending: Rosebud was his first hairdresser.
MobiusKlein
@dmsilev: A more generous view is that much of the uncertainty is from ‘black swan’ events.
When there is no time remaining for that, no last minute poll changes, uncertainty is lower.
dmsilev
@efgoldman: That was Mittens, and it was worse than that. He, or someone on his team, cancelled the cards the evening of the election, and his staffers only found out when they tried to take cabs home and found that the charges were declined. Classy!
r€nato
I am hopeful that all this talk about voter intimidation on the part of Trumpanzees turns out to be mostly hot air, just like their threats of violence and murder and sedition should (when) Hillary win(s).
Applejinx
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: New England preppies? Yeah they’d be quiet. A little googling suggests the Bushes are into charity about as much as anybody: Dubya seems to have done a lot versus AIDS, in particular.
It tells you something that the Bushes look positively civilized after McCain, then Romney, then Trump. Goes to show you that simply ‘being upper class douchebags’ is far from the worst we might have to deal with.