Two Words: Joe Biden. We nominated the wrong candidate.
2.
Trentrunner
Well, we won Virginia. So there’s that. Not over yet.
3.
dmsilev
This is, um, not good. There’s still hope, but it’s not looking good.
4.
Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism
Making serious plans to leave the country as soon as Canada or Mexico starts taking refugees. Anyone who can get out should.
5.
Rob
NOOOOOOOOOOOO
eta: I am feeling sick to my stomach right now.
6.
Mai.naem.mobile
@scottinnj: I dont think Clinton is the best candidate but they would have found crap on Biden.
7.
Dadadadadadada
I remind everyone that a great many Latin American and Caribbean countries allow entry and indefinite stay to US passports, no visa required and no questions asked.
8.
dmsilev
PA still looks good, so it probably comes down to Michigan at this point.
9.
Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism
And those of us who never needed to bother to get a passport?
10.
Luthe
@Dadadadadadada: Is Belize on that list? They speak English there…
11.
Caravelle
Clinton is closing the gap in Michigan with 33% of districts in, but that third party vote is increasingly pissing me off.
12.
Arclite
Funny how people crapped all over Nate Silver when he gave a higher % chance to win to Trump. He’s l looking pretty good about now though.
Also thanks Comey.
13.
SenyorDave
I just can’t come to grips with Trump as POTUS. He demonstrated in the debates that he has no concept of almost any major issue. The “cybers” he referred to showed he doesn’t even know what a cyber-attack is. He’s going to rip up Nafta? Fine, but you don’t get only good things in a trade deal. What bad things would he accept?
Unfortunately, MI looks awful, the county analysis is truly alarming when compared to 2012.
14.
RaflW
Even if HRC pulls this out (and she may well), we are within a hairs breath of a pariah nation.
So. Much. Work. To. Do.
And I’ve been far too comfy and insular. Dammit.
15.
Daulnay
The Detroit Free Press called Michigan for Clinton.
@Mai.naem.mobile: He’d do no worse and if MI and FL are in < 1% territory he's more competitive. Look i was with her despite flaws.
23.
guachi
I suspect Joe Biden would have won fairly handily over Trump.
24.
Daulnay
@Luthe:
Used to be you could homestead in Belize, maybe you still can. It’s an excruciatingly weird country though.
25.
Caravelle
@Daulnay: It did so awhile ago though, didn’t it ? I think that’s what I heard Michigan’s governor say when she was explaining why she still thought Michigan would go to Clinton. What are they basing their judgment on, exit polls ?
ETA – annnd the gap widened a scooch again… I should probably slow down on the refresh button.
26.
eric
Benchmark Politics @benchmarkpol
Detroit, Ann Arbor, and Flint still out in Michigan. Narrowed to 2%.
27.
Patricia Kayden
Hubby is keeping me sane by scoffing at any suggestion that Trump will win. Wow. So tight.
28.
Soprano2
I am appalled and saddened to see how many Americans are more racist and misogynist than I ever thought possible.
Just told my wife that if the unthinkable happens, we’re gone.
We only moved back to the states from the Caribbean because Obama was elected
(And had no comprehension of the magnitude of ODS) but this is beyond absurd.
If it all actually all turns to shit I feel most badly for the President, who’ll have to turn the government over to essentially the KKK and try to be gracious while doing it.
Mr Benis and I are at our winter home on the Pacific coast of Mexico. Watching this travesty, I seriously want to make it our perminate home.
Unfuckingbelievable.
37.
Patricia Kayden
@Soprano2: It’s scary that so many Americans are okay with placing Trump in the White House. I’m hearing that Florida won’t be fully counted until tomorrow.
38.
Mai.naem.mobile
@Soprano2: forget the racism and the misogyny. He is completely unqualified. This would be like electing my British computer programmer cousin to the presidency. He wouldn’t even understand the system of government.
39.
Anya
I can’t think straight. Can we win without Michigan?
40.
Suffragete City elftx
I have a case of heartburn..not felt it in years..this is insane.
also too Thanks Comey
41.
Daulnay
@Anya:
FFS, calm down. Michigan is likely to go Clinton; the outstanding areas are densely populated and Democrats.
42.
Larkspur
@Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism: Not me. I’m not leaving, even if the Bad Thing happens, and it hasn’t happened yet. First, I’m too old and too poor for any other country to even consider me as an immigrant. Second, I’m old and poor and don’t have children, so I figure I can be of use here fighting back, without risking anything but my own self. But it isn’t over yet.
43.
Felonius Monk
Joe Manchin (WV-Asshole) is planning to switch to the Repugs.
44.
Caravelle
However things shake out, I’ll really want to know how it came to happen that the polls were this wrong.
@Patricia Kayden: I thought we’d win FL — had a good feeling about it. Looks like I was wrong. If we win MI, I think we’ll pull through. If not, we’re screwed.
47.
Patricia Kayden
@Ajabu: Jealous of you. What a nightmare for President Obama to even have to interact with a classless toad like Trump.
I blame Sanders campaign for cementing the “rigged system,” “burn down the system” crap, the media for legitimizing racism and all of Trump’s ugliness & Comey’s FBI. Fuck them all.
50.
Betty Cracker
Y’all watching the market futures? If Trump wins, the recession starts tomorrow.
51.
sacrablue
I can’t stop shaking!
52.
Cermet
The entire battle will be decided in MI & WI; will not give up till then.
53.
Dadadadadadada
@Larkspur: Many Caribbean and Latin American countries take in anyone with a US passport without a visa, and let them stay as long as they like. Their currencies are basically worthless, so even a few thousand US$ in savings can keep you in style for years. The only downside is some of the highest homicide rates in the world.
54.
Mai.naem.mobile
@NW Phil: hey asshole, I remember people saying Clinton would have bargained better with Congress than Obama because the GOP will treat a white POTUS better. The GOP will destroy a Dem candidate no matter who it is.
55.
Patricia Kayden
@Betty Cracker: Yep. We’re in for a disaster on so many fronts should Trump win.
56.
JordanRules
@Betty Cracker: Yup! Shit is too hard to digest right now.
Y’all watching the market futures? If Trump wins, the depression starts tomorrow.
Fixed that for you.
58.
cckids
@guachi: Joe Biden DIDN’T RUN. What, you want to hold him at gunpoint? Jesus Horatio Christ on a pogo stick.
59.
Patricia Kayden
@Anya: Despite all that, Trump shouldn’t be doing so well. He is an awful person and that was on full display during this election cycle.
60.
SWMBO
@Betty Cracker: *sigh* Rick Scott won Florida. Twice. And we have a Republican SoS, yes? I’m not getting a good feeling about this…
61.
Daulnay
@Cermet:
Evan McMullen’s chances are climbing, actually. His only chance was it getting thrown to the Electoral College.
62.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Betty Cracker: there was a story on MSNBC about this, and Manchin has denied them. He’ll go with the majority, is my thought.
also,
@vmbsimon
@vMitch_Stewart @vanamariecox Oakland (my home county) holding Obama ’12 margin. Detroit always reports late,everyone nervous. 27% in. Chill.
63.
D58826
@guachi: If this comes down to sexist/racist/nativist it might well be that no democrat could have won. I know you can eliminate the sexist part if Biden had been the candidate but he ran twice in the primaries and never made it past the first round.
64.
Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism
@Larkspur: You know those people who are already prepped when we get a hurricane warning? That’s me. If the time comes that it becomes necessary, I want to be able to pick up and go.
Is there a site that tells where all the votes are UNCOUNTED yet? I see the counted ones but it doesn’t tell me where to look to see where the uncounted ones are yet. They must have some idea how many votes have been cast but uncounted. Where do I look?
69.
Aleta
In the old days they just looked at the count as it came in, without these prediction sites. It was drawn out and slow, not so much rush to call it every second.
I’m going to try that way, try to stop with the predictions, none of which have happened yet. Live in real time for the rest of the evening. Probably better for my brain, which takes so long to calm down anymore, so it affects my sleep and the rest of me too much. Predicting things that might happen but often don’t is what the news shows do now, but that’s not the same as reporting the news.
70.
Karen
1, No checks or balances with three all levels of government.
2. Women will be more shit on than ever.
3. I bet he delegates running the country to Pence.
4. He’ll start a nuclear war within the first week.
71.
David
Florida called for Trump. F*ck.
72.
Daulnay
If/When Hillary wins, it’ll be because Bernie’s people joined her campaign. Almost none of them defected to Trump.
73.
Trentrunner
AP calls FL for Trump.
74.
Larkspur
@Dadadadadadada: I guess. But the thing is, if we fuck it up here, with Trump, the whole fucking world suffers. I forget how the saying goes, but it’s sort of like if America sneezes, EVERYBODY stocks up on cough medicine and extra soup. So I’ll stay and take my metaphorical medicine at the scene of the crime. Not that it’s over yet. Although I’m headed for the shower now, then more wine and a semi-interesting alt-history novel about world-wide nuclear war. Cause surely that will distract me.
75.
Aleta
@redshirt: All 4 Maine evs looked likely for Clinton according to NYT about 10-15 (fucking-eternity-ago) minutes ago, though.
76.
Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism
@SWMBO: The individual states. I’m sick over NC. Fuck Art Pope.
@D58826: It is also true that from a political science “fundamentals” and economy point of view, this election seems to be considered as one that would (weakly?) favor a Republican in any case.
79.
donnah
NC for Trump. Please, PA and MI step up. A Trump/Republican presidency will be a living nightmare
No, Nate got it wrong, too. His final numbers gave Clinton a 71.4% likelihood of winning and 302.2 Electoral votes. What too many people failed to realize is just how stupid tens of millions of Americans are.
(Being racist is stupid. Believing Trump’s promises is stupid. Voting for a sociopath is beyond stupid. Etc.)
82.
Anya
@Patricia Kayden: apparently, white people hate blacks and browns more than we thought. They voted for an ignorant clown who didn’t offer them any solutions other than: vote for me and I’ll oppress POC. They chose white supremacy over competence, sanity and decency. Even if Hillary wins, this is depressing.
83.
Daulnay
Dow now expected to open down 700 points.
84.
maeve
Its not the wrong candidate – others would have been wrong for different reasons
Trump galvizeed the low information white voter – when I was canvassing in 2008 I met them in their garage/rec room and they scoffed at me for the very idea of being involved in politics – not hostile but didn’t vote
All “likely voter” models are out the window. Fot better and for worse.
85.
Daulnay
@Anya:
Actually, it’s not that. As Maeve said, he got out people who didn’t used to vote – Pew spotted them in the polls in the 2012 election; uninterested voters who mainly followed celebrities on television, about 10%, and another group of about 15% who were desperate and felt abandoned by both sides.
86.
Aleta
I’m told that NYT calls:
Va called for clinton
Oh called trump
CA and Ore called for Clinton of course
NYT says:
NH not called
ME not called
MI Trump leading by 1percent
Iowa Clinton leading by 1500 votes (dead heat)
MN Clinton leading
NV one county only reporting
MI Trump ahead by 1%
PA Clinton ahead by 2%
87.
Suzanne
I legitimately do not know what to do.
This doesn’t feel like losing an election. This feels like the start of a war.
88.
scottinnj
@Caravelle: Basically I think the polls underestimated how many rural voters would come out. They clearly were meh on Romney but something got them motivated on Trump. It seems in say rural areas that went say 1200-400 for romney went 1350-350 for Trump. Those extra few hundred vote times dozens of counties matterred.
89.
Bubba's Bison Inn
Very interesting results so far
90.
Caravelle
@Aleta: The fact is, following this moment-by-moment isn’t *useful*. It’s, I’m going to say entertainment even though I’m sure it doesn’t feel that way to many people, but you can’t really describe it as something else. Unless you’re watching with children in which case it would be educational I guess. Following predictions can be useful before the election, since it can orient your behavior as far as voting, donating, volunteering etc go, but on election night ? Outside of fairly specialized jobs and roles you won’t be getting any information you need to act on before morning.
Note how a lot of those results depend on heterogeneous returns county-by-county, meaning the percentages you get before all precincts have returned aren’t as reliable as even polls are, because polls are designed to compensate for biases and the partial returns aren’t, because they aren’t actually predictions, they’re just… partial returns.
So basically it’s a bit like when there’s a catastrophe and now people are pretty explicit, saying “take all the real-time news with a grain of salt and trust more the information that comes out as things shake out in the days or weeks following”. It’s the same thing here; the only REAL, ACTIONABLE information to be had here is the vote TOTALS, and the identity of the actual winners. And that’s info that isn’t available now, but will be available in the morning (short of a 2000 scenario, that was a fun morning) and days following. So it is completely reasonable and indeed smart (if one doesn’t like political edutainment and the excitement of following election night) to just wait until the answers have actually been determined.
Same thing with deciding how good or bad the polling and the forecasts were btw.
@Suzanne: Yeah. Even if Clinton wins (fingers crossed), the fact that it isn’t a landslide is a problem.
I’m reminded of that time Le Pen made it to the second turn in France. It galvanized people and Chirac won in a landslide. It’s different for Trump because he’s the candidate for a major party and that definitely matters, but still. It would have been nice if it could at least have been a frank repudiation. I’m also not sure the same thing would happen a second time if the situation arose again in France.
@scottinnj: That sounds plausible. Where are y’all getting all your county-by-county info ?
94.
Aleta
@Suzanne: I think the war for the US judicial system began when no one was prosecuted for torture and the Roberts SC did not sufficiently defend the rights of US citizens against being easily accused (by lower courts) of supporting terrorist organizations. And the long practice of protecting law enforcement over black citizens. This election is a major battle in that war, but it was going to be fierce even if H wins. Because of the FBI, CIA and judicial system’s political allegiances and protection of each other instead of citizens, and believing themselves to be at war against dissenters.
95.
scottinnj
@Caravelle: The guy on MSNBC with the map is pretty good. Red counties getting redder.
96.
Caravelle
How does this guy have 49% of the popular vote.
97.
scottinnj
@Aleta: There is no doubt in my mind this time next year Hillary is being bars.
@Patricia Kayden:
Well, my wife is arguing the point with me. Says nobody’s going to run her off.
I told her, you probably don’t have anything to worry about as long as you’re not Black or a woman.
Oh, wait…
We’ll see what happens. Maybe if I guarantee we’ll take the grandchildren with us (who also fall into both the above categories as well.)
@scottinnj: They’ll manufacture the scene Alex Jones was sobbing about this weekend if they have to.
Gods, I’ve already lived through one Satanic moral panic. I don’t want to live through another.
101.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
we might be looking at Attorney General Rudi Giuliani. I can’t believe this shit
102.
vhh
@Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism: My spouse, children and I are all US-Australian dual citizens. Daughter lives permanently in Australia already. I can retire ina few years, and moving there is now something to think about seriously.
103.
greennotGreen
When Kerry lost, I went to bed so depressed because I realized my country was not a good country, that our citizens had voted for a man who had failed to protect us and then lied us into a disastrous war.
If Trump wins, I will believe that our country is not a sane country. Idiocracy was, in fact, a prophecy. I can’t imagine that His Orange Incompetence would be more than a one term President, but the damage he could do will perhaps never be undone.
104.
DeeFromTexas
Right now we’re still waiting and hoping. This is the dark night of the soul. An hour or so ago a friend told me, “Just saying, we could move to France–I have relatives” and I was just now thinking “What shall I do?”
One way or another, I WILL STAY and in my feeble, little-old-lady way, I will do what I can. A few of us may be in clear and present danger, and they should take care of themselves, but a lot of us are middle class straight white people, so what the hell. Do you think it will hurt less to watch what happens to your country from Belize? It’s not over until we quit.
105.
My Truth Hurts
i told you so you arrogant assholes
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scottinnj
Two Words: Joe Biden. We nominated the wrong candidate.
Trentrunner
Well, we won Virginia. So there’s that. Not over yet.
dmsilev
This is, um, not good. There’s still hope, but it’s not looking good.
Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism
Making serious plans to leave the country as soon as Canada or Mexico starts taking refugees. Anyone who can get out should.
Rob
NOOOOOOOOOOOO
eta: I am feeling sick to my stomach right now.
Mai.naem.mobile
@scottinnj: I dont think Clinton is the best candidate but they would have found crap on Biden.
Dadadadadadada
I remind everyone that a great many Latin American and Caribbean countries allow entry and indefinite stay to US passports, no visa required and no questions asked.
dmsilev
PA still looks good, so it probably comes down to Michigan at this point.
Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism
And those of us who never needed to bother to get a passport?
Luthe
@Dadadadadadada: Is Belize on that list? They speak English there…
Caravelle
Clinton is closing the gap in Michigan with 33% of districts in, but that third party vote is increasingly pissing me off.
Arclite
Funny how people crapped all over Nate Silver when he gave a higher % chance to win to Trump. He’s l looking pretty good about now though.
Also thanks Comey.
SenyorDave
I just can’t come to grips with Trump as POTUS. He demonstrated in the debates that he has no concept of almost any major issue. The “cybers” he referred to showed he doesn’t even know what a cyber-attack is. He’s going to rip up Nafta? Fine, but you don’t get only good things in a trade deal. What bad things would he accept?
Unfortunately, MI looks awful, the county analysis is truly alarming when compared to 2012.
RaflW
Even if HRC pulls this out (and she may well), we are within a hairs breath of a pariah nation.
So. Much. Work. To. Do.
And I’ve been far too comfy and insular. Dammit.
Daulnay
The Detroit Free Press called Michigan for Clinton.
Luthe
@Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism: Your friendly neighborhood post office can help you!
dmsilev
@Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism: You can still apply while Obama is running the place…
gogol's wife
You know, I really don’t give a s–t which pollster comes out of this looking better. Just not one shit.
Sarah, Proud and Tall
Fuck.
Betty Cracker
Michigan.
Mai.naem.mobile
@Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism: $50 for expedited US passport while O is still POTUS
scottinnj
@Mai.naem.mobile: He’d do no worse and if MI and FL are in < 1% territory he's more competitive. Look i was with her despite flaws.
guachi
I suspect Joe Biden would have won fairly handily over Trump.
Daulnay
@Luthe:
Used to be you could homestead in Belize, maybe you still can. It’s an excruciatingly weird country though.
Caravelle
@Daulnay: It did so awhile ago though, didn’t it ? I think that’s what I heard Michigan’s governor say when she was explaining why she still thought Michigan would go to Clinton. What are they basing their judgment on, exit polls ?
ETA – annnd the gap widened a scooch again… I should probably slow down on the refresh button.
eric
Benchmark Politics @benchmarkpol
Detroit, Ann Arbor, and Flint still out in Michigan. Narrowed to 2%.
Patricia Kayden
Hubby is keeping me sane by scoffing at any suggestion that Trump will win. Wow. So tight.
Soprano2
I am appalled and saddened to see how many Americans are more racist and misogynist than I ever thought possible.
NW Phil
@Mai.naem.mobile:
Pretty much says it all.
Daulnay
@eric:
And a huge chunk of the Democratic votes in Michigan are in Detroit, Ann Arbor (U of Mich) and Flint.
Patricia Kayden
@guachi: We will never know so it really doesn’t matter now.
Karen
@Rob:
Join the club.
guachi
@Patricia Kayden: I hope your hubby is correct.
But I see no evidence of it. :(
Ajabu
Just told my wife that if the unthinkable happens, we’re gone.
We only moved back to the states from the Caribbean because Obama was elected
(And had no comprehension of the magnitude of ODS) but this is beyond absurd.
If it all actually all turns to shit I feel most badly for the President, who’ll have to turn the government over to essentially the KKK and try to be gracious while doing it.
annie
shit.
Elaine Benis
Mr Benis and I are at our winter home on the Pacific coast of Mexico. Watching this travesty, I seriously want to make it our perminate home.
Unfuckingbelievable.
Patricia Kayden
@Soprano2: It’s scary that so many Americans are okay with placing Trump in the White House. I’m hearing that Florida won’t be fully counted until tomorrow.
Mai.naem.mobile
@Soprano2: forget the racism and the misogyny. He is completely unqualified. This would be like electing my British computer programmer cousin to the presidency. He wouldn’t even understand the system of government.
Anya
I can’t think straight. Can we win without Michigan?
Suffragete City elftx
I have a case of heartburn..not felt it in years..this is insane.
also too Thanks Comey
Daulnay
@Anya:
FFS, calm down. Michigan is likely to go Clinton; the outstanding areas are densely populated and Democrats.
Larkspur
@Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism: Not me. I’m not leaving, even if the Bad Thing happens, and it hasn’t happened yet. First, I’m too old and too poor for any other country to even consider me as an immigrant. Second, I’m old and poor and don’t have children, so I figure I can be of use here fighting back, without risking anything but my own self. But it isn’t over yet.
Felonius Monk
Joe Manchin (WV-Asshole) is planning to switch to the Repugs.
Caravelle
However things shake out, I’ll really want to know how it came to happen that the polls were this wrong.
eric
@Daulnay: same for WI
Betty Cracker
@Patricia Kayden: I thought we’d win FL — had a good feeling about it. Looks like I was wrong. If we win MI, I think we’ll pull through. If not, we’re screwed.
Patricia Kayden
@Ajabu: Jealous of you. What a nightmare for President Obama to even have to interact with a classless toad like Trump.
Betty Cracker
@Felonius Monk: Seriously? What a dick.
Anya
I blame Sanders campaign for cementing the “rigged system,” “burn down the system” crap, the media for legitimizing racism and all of Trump’s ugliness & Comey’s FBI. Fuck them all.
Betty Cracker
Y’all watching the market futures? If Trump wins, the recession starts tomorrow.
sacrablue
I can’t stop shaking!
Cermet
The entire battle will be decided in MI & WI; will not give up till then.
Dadadadadadada
@Larkspur: Many Caribbean and Latin American countries take in anyone with a US passport without a visa, and let them stay as long as they like. Their currencies are basically worthless, so even a few thousand US$ in savings can keep you in style for years. The only downside is some of the highest homicide rates in the world.
Mai.naem.mobile
@NW Phil: hey asshole, I remember people saying Clinton would have bargained better with Congress than Obama because the GOP will treat a white POTUS better. The GOP will destroy a Dem candidate no matter who it is.
Patricia Kayden
@Betty Cracker: Yep. We’re in for a disaster on so many fronts should Trump win.
JordanRules
@Betty Cracker: Yup! Shit is too hard to digest right now.
Daulnay
@Betty Cracker:
Fixed that for you.
cckids
@guachi: Joe Biden DIDN’T RUN. What, you want to hold him at gunpoint? Jesus Horatio Christ on a pogo stick.
Patricia Kayden
@Anya: Despite all that, Trump shouldn’t be doing so well. He is an awful person and that was on full display during this election cycle.
SWMBO
@Betty Cracker: *sigh* Rick Scott won Florida. Twice. And we have a Republican SoS, yes? I’m not getting a good feeling about this…
Daulnay
@Cermet:
Evan McMullen’s chances are climbing, actually. His only chance was it getting thrown to the Electoral College.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Betty Cracker: there was a story on MSNBC about this, and Manchin has denied them. He’ll go with the majority, is my thought.
also,
D58826
@guachi: If this comes down to sexist/racist/nativist it might well be that no democrat could have won. I know you can eliminate the sexist part if Biden had been the candidate but he ran twice in the primaries and never made it past the first round.
Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism
@Larkspur: You know those people who are already prepped when we get a hurricane warning? That’s me. If the time comes that it becomes necessary, I want to be able to pick up and go.
redshirt
If Maine’s 1 EV for CD-2 is a factor in this, I don’t even know what to say/think/feel.
NoraLenderbee
Now Clinton is ahead in Iowa??
If she wins Iowa, loses Michigan, and wins ALL of New England, it’s a tie, 269-269.
I’m going to throw up.
eric
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: @Jim, Foolish Literalist: down to 2% or 43k
SWMBO
Is there a site that tells where all the votes are UNCOUNTED yet? I see the counted ones but it doesn’t tell me where to look to see where the uncounted ones are yet. They must have some idea how many votes have been cast but uncounted. Where do I look?
Aleta
In the old days they just looked at the count as it came in, without these prediction sites. It was drawn out and slow, not so much rush to call it every second.
I’m going to try that way, try to stop with the predictions, none of which have happened yet. Live in real time for the rest of the evening. Probably better for my brain, which takes so long to calm down anymore, so it affects my sleep and the rest of me too much. Predicting things that might happen but often don’t is what the news shows do now, but that’s not the same as reporting the news.
Karen
1, No checks or balances with three all levels of government.
2. Women will be more shit on than ever.
3. I bet he delegates running the country to Pence.
4. He’ll start a nuclear war within the first week.
David
Florida called for Trump. F*ck.
Daulnay
If/When Hillary wins, it’ll be because Bernie’s people joined her campaign. Almost none of them defected to Trump.
Trentrunner
AP calls FL for Trump.
Larkspur
@Dadadadadadada: I guess. But the thing is, if we fuck it up here, with Trump, the whole fucking world suffers. I forget how the saying goes, but it’s sort of like if America sneezes, EVERYBODY stocks up on cough medicine and extra soup. So I’ll stay and take my metaphorical medicine at the scene of the crime. Not that it’s over yet. Although I’m headed for the shower now, then more wine and a semi-interesting alt-history novel about world-wide nuclear war. Cause surely that will distract me.
Aleta
@redshirt: All 4 Maine evs looked likely for Clinton according to NYT about 10-15 (fucking-eternity-ago) minutes ago, though.
Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism
@SWMBO: The individual states. I’m sick over NC. Fuck Art Pope.
eric
take it for what it is worth https://www.facebook.com/detroitfreepress/videos/10154754507005530?hootPostID=db699fc528b6693628de04e5e1b01fad
Caravelle
@D58826: It is also true that from a political science “fundamentals” and economy point of view, this election seems to be considered as one that would (weakly?) favor a Republican in any case.
donnah
NC for Trump. Please, PA and MI step up. A Trump/Republican presidency will be a living nightmare
Larkspur
@Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism: I totally understand and cannot argue or disagree with that.
TriassicSands
@Arclite:
No, Nate got it wrong, too. His final numbers gave Clinton a 71.4% likelihood of winning and 302.2 Electoral votes. What too many people failed to realize is just how stupid tens of millions of Americans are.
(Being racist is stupid. Believing Trump’s promises is stupid. Voting for a sociopath is beyond stupid. Etc.)
Anya
@Patricia Kayden: apparently, white people hate blacks and browns more than we thought. They voted for an ignorant clown who didn’t offer them any solutions other than: vote for me and I’ll oppress POC. They chose white supremacy over competence, sanity and decency. Even if Hillary wins, this is depressing.
Daulnay
Dow now expected to open down 700 points.
maeve
Its not the wrong candidate – others would have been wrong for different reasons
Trump galvizeed the low information white voter – when I was canvassing in 2008 I met them in their garage/rec room and they scoffed at me for the very idea of being involved in politics – not hostile but didn’t vote
All “likely voter” models are out the window. Fot better and for worse.
Daulnay
@Anya:
Actually, it’s not that. As Maeve said, he got out people who didn’t used to vote – Pew spotted them in the polls in the 2012 election; uninterested voters who mainly followed celebrities on television, about 10%, and another group of about 15% who were desperate and felt abandoned by both sides.
Aleta
I’m told that NYT calls:
Va called for clinton
Oh called trump
CA and Ore called for Clinton of course
NYT says:
NH not called
ME not called
MI Trump leading by 1percent
Iowa Clinton leading by 1500 votes (dead heat)
MN Clinton leading
NV one county only reporting
MI Trump ahead by 1%
PA Clinton ahead by 2%
Suzanne
I legitimately do not know what to do.
This doesn’t feel like losing an election. This feels like the start of a war.
scottinnj
@Caravelle: Basically I think the polls underestimated how many rural voters would come out. They clearly were meh on Romney but something got them motivated on Trump. It seems in say rural areas that went say 1200-400 for romney went 1350-350 for Trump. Those extra few hundred vote times dozens of counties matterred.
Bubba's Bison Inn
Very interesting results so far
Caravelle
@Aleta: The fact is, following this moment-by-moment isn’t *useful*. It’s, I’m going to say entertainment even though I’m sure it doesn’t feel that way to many people, but you can’t really describe it as something else. Unless you’re watching with children in which case it would be educational I guess. Following predictions can be useful before the election, since it can orient your behavior as far as voting, donating, volunteering etc go, but on election night ? Outside of fairly specialized jobs and roles you won’t be getting any information you need to act on before morning.
Note how a lot of those results depend on heterogeneous returns county-by-county, meaning the percentages you get before all precincts have returned aren’t as reliable as even polls are, because polls are designed to compensate for biases and the partial returns aren’t, because they aren’t actually predictions, they’re just… partial returns.
So basically it’s a bit like when there’s a catastrophe and now people are pretty explicit, saying “take all the real-time news with a grain of salt and trust more the information that comes out as things shake out in the days or weeks following”. It’s the same thing here; the only REAL, ACTIONABLE information to be had here is the vote TOTALS, and the identity of the actual winners. And that’s info that isn’t available now, but will be available in the morning (short of a 2000 scenario, that was a fun morning) and days following. So it is completely reasonable and indeed smart (if one doesn’t like political edutainment and the excitement of following election night) to just wait until the answers have actually been determined.
Same thing with deciding how good or bad the polling and the forecasts were btw.
Aleta
Vegas is not counted yet in NV ….
Rob
@Karen: This was not the night I was expecting.
Despair.
Caravelle
@Suzanne: Yeah. Even if Clinton wins (fingers crossed), the fact that it isn’t a landslide is a problem.
I’m reminded of that time Le Pen made it to the second turn in France. It galvanized people and Chirac won in a landslide. It’s different for Trump because he’s the candidate for a major party and that definitely matters, but still. It would have been nice if it could at least have been a frank repudiation. I’m also not sure the same thing would happen a second time if the situation arose again in France.
@scottinnj: That sounds plausible. Where are y’all getting all your county-by-county info ?
Aleta
@Suzanne: I think the war for the US judicial system began when no one was prosecuted for torture and the Roberts SC did not sufficiently defend the rights of US citizens against being easily accused (by lower courts) of supporting terrorist organizations. And the long practice of protecting law enforcement over black citizens. This election is a major battle in that war, but it was going to be fierce even if H wins. Because of the FBI, CIA and judicial system’s political allegiances and protection of each other instead of citizens, and believing themselves to be at war against dissenters.
scottinnj
@Caravelle: The guy on MSNBC with the map is pretty good. Red counties getting redder.
Caravelle
How does this guy have 49% of the popular vote.
scottinnj
@Aleta: There is no doubt in my mind this time next year Hillary is being bars.
Ajabu
@Patricia Kayden:
Well, my wife is arguing the point with me. Says nobody’s going to run her off.
I told her, you probably don’t have anything to worry about as long as you’re not Black or a woman.
Oh, wait…
We’ll see what happens. Maybe if I guarantee we’ll take the grandchildren with us (who also fall into both the above categories as well.)
Aleta
@Caravelle: Interesting, good explanation.
Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism
@scottinnj: They’ll manufacture the scene Alex Jones was sobbing about this weekend if they have to.
Gods, I’ve already lived through one Satanic moral panic. I don’t want to live through another.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
we might be looking at Attorney General Rudi Giuliani. I can’t believe this shit
vhh
@Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism: My spouse, children and I are all US-Australian dual citizens. Daughter lives permanently in Australia already. I can retire ina few years, and moving there is now something to think about seriously.
greennotGreen
When Kerry lost, I went to bed so depressed because I realized my country was not a good country, that our citizens had voted for a man who had failed to protect us and then lied us into a disastrous war.
If Trump wins, I will believe that our country is not a sane country. Idiocracy was, in fact, a prophecy. I can’t imagine that His Orange Incompetence would be more than a one term President, but the damage he could do will perhaps never be undone.
DeeFromTexas
Right now we’re still waiting and hoping. This is the dark night of the soul. An hour or so ago a friend told me, “Just saying, we could move to France–I have relatives” and I was just now thinking “What shall I do?”
One way or another, I WILL STAY and in my feeble, little-old-lady way, I will do what I can. A few of us may be in clear and present danger, and they should take care of themselves, but a lot of us are middle class straight white people, so what the hell. Do you think it will hurt less to watch what happens to your country from Belize? It’s not over until we quit.
My Truth Hurts
i told you so you arrogant assholes