Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

A thin legal pretext to veneer over their personal religious and political desires

Infrastructure week. at last.

Conservatism: there are some people the law protects but does not bind and others who the law binds but does not protect.

You don’t get to peddle hatred on saturday and offer condolences on sunday.

Peak wingnut was a lie.

if you can’t see it, then you are useless in the fight to stop it.

This year has been the longest three days of putin’s life.

Seems like a complicated subject, have you tried yelling at it?

“Everybody’s entitled to be an idiot.”

We are builders in a constant struggle with destroyers. let’s win this.

It’s always darkest before the other shoe drops.

Republicans are radicals, not conservatives.

A democracy can’t function when people can’t distinguish facts from lies.

The arc of history bends toward the same old fuckery.

We still have time to mess this up!

I was promised a recession.

Is it negotiation when the other party actually wants to shoot the hostage?

Republican obstruction dressed up as bipartisanship. Again.

JFC, are there no editors left at that goddamn rag?

Technically true, but collectively nonsense

Second rate reporter says what?

In my day, never was longer.

The next time the wall street journal editorial board speaks the truth will be the first.

Imperialist aggressors must be defeated, or the whole world loses.

You are here: Home / Past Elections / Election 2016 / Open Thread: How Gullible Is the “Average American Voter”?

Open Thread: How Gullible Is the “Average American Voter”?

by | 240 Comments

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Not quite gullible enough for “President Trump”, I’m still thinking.

But FFS — what is your damage, Florida?

Reader Interactions

240Comments

  5. 5.

    MJS

    Can we stop with all the “Dow is down” bullshit? Who cares? For the fuckwads that voted for Trump, that’s validation. It shows that Wall Street is scared of Trump, and fear is what these idiots thrive on. “Told you so” won’t mean jack-shit to them.

  9. 9.

    cckids

    @Mai.naem.mobile:

    I feel scared for the press covering a President Trump.

    The press, and their dereliction of duty, is a major reason we are SO FUCKING CLOSE to (gag) President Trump. If he starts jailing them, I will just laugh.

  12. 12.

    patroclus

    It all depends on Michigan right now. Go Blue! Hillary’s been closing, but does she have enough?

    Minnesota looking good. Nevada looking good!

  18. 18.

    Amir Khalid

    It’s just sickening. A candidate as unqualified, unprepared and of glaringly unfit character as Donald Trump shouldn’t be doing this well. Especially against one of the best-qualified people ever to run for President. What the hell is wrong with American voters?

  20. 20.

    What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?

    I don’t know. I can’t imagine what a President Trump admin is going to be like but it has to be an absolute disaster.

  23. 23.

    Chet Murthy

    I remember 2008, when Obama won. And how everybody was in the streets, celebrating, all over town (SF). “Our long national nightmare is over”. FFS. It’s a sequel to that horror movie, and as with all horror-movie sequels, it’s more terrifying.

  27. 27.

    Ked

    I’m actually more hopeful than I was an hour ago. It’s going to be close. But what the FUCK is going on in Georgia?

  28. 28.

    jk

    @Mai.naem.mobile: @cckids:

    Many journalists are nail biters and bed wetters who live in fear that they’ll be criticized for having a liberal bias so they let Trump get away with all kinds of bullshit while blowing Clinton’s email server story out of all proportion.

  29. 29.

    BobbyK

    One thing that maybe needs to be looked at is how much of the success trump is having in states like FL and NC is due to voter suppression of minorities? I think his victory in NC is going to be razor thin.

  30. 30.

    Old Dan and Little Anne

    This is one gigantic terrifying circus. I was hoping for a more festive night. Come on, Michigan.

  32. 32.

    Nelle

    I wonder if the evangelicals came out big time, believing (being told) that Trump will resign and they will get Pence as president. I heard some stirrings and mutterings in that direction.

  33. 33.

    smintheus

    @guachi: I have deep reservoirs of patience for the process of counting votes. Also, I was watching the Bruins’ game (which they too managed to screw up at the last minute).

  35. 35.

    Lizzy L

    I have a friend who is a reporter for Bloomberg. I care for him and for people like him. I have NFTG for the TV folks and the pundits. They screwed up.

  37. 37.

    Ben Cisco

    Clearly, I didn’t have enough alcohol on hand for this. On the other hand…

    Who’s been pushing a horserace for the last fucking 18 months?

    Where are you getting your news in drips and drops?

    FUCKING BREATHE ALREADY.

  40. 40.

    The Dangerman

    So, please give me the basics (went to dinner for a while; NOW the Tums). Trump took Ohio and I assume Florida.

    It’s Michigan or bust?

    ETA: Wow, Clinton flatlined in Ohio; WTF, Fuckeyes?

  43. 43.

    japa21

    Just a couple comments if this continues the way it looks like:

    1. We can blame the racist, ignorant white working class if we want, but a good portion of the blame goes to those Republicans who convinced themselves that no matter how bad Trump is, Clinton was worse.
    2.Additional blame goes to the media that carried all the lies and innuendos as if they were truth.
    3. Plus the media never got around to talking about Clinton’s platform.
    4. If Clinton somehow pulls this out, be prepared for some major violence because Trump supporters will be convinced it was rigged.

  44. 44.

    guachi

    @smintheus: I’m glad you have patience. The number started turning right at 8pm poll closing and have never gotten better.

    I’m glad there are people that hold out hope for Clinton. But it’s not happening. No way. No how.

  47. 47.

    NotMax

    Someone pointed out a nice data point.

    Of the states which have been called thus far, although the margin of victory has differed the result as to who won has not differed from the polling.

    Big picture, folks, focus on the big picture.

  49. 49.

    patroclus

    @The Dangerman: It’s the entire blue firewall – Clinton loses anything, she loses (except for possibly New Hampshire, where she trails). But yeah, Michigan is the key.

  50. 50.

    Viva BrisVegas

    It took generations for people to notice that the Roman Empire had fallen.

    We get to see the same process in one night.

    I’ve never been more grateful that I live 10,000 miles away.

    So long America, and thanks for all the fish.

  54. 54.

    hovercraft

    .I really wish I still drank. I’m beyond fetal.
    But I’m still holding out hope, or I’m still in denial.
    How the fuck is this happening?
    What the fuck is wromg with these people.

  56. 56.

    patroclus

    Back to 33,000 down in Michigan – not over yet. Clinton leads by 116,000 in Pa. McGinty by 123,000.

  57. 57.

    What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?

    It’s all slipping away. America had a good run but a real risk that fascism is here. I don’t think Trump is going to give up power willingly. And I don’t think the Republican congress is going to do anything to stop him.

  59. 59.

    seaboogie

    @Amir Khalid:

    What the hell is wrong with American voters?

    Racism, misogyny, ignorance, hate and fear…evidently a more powerful and pervasive combination than we imagined.

  60. 60.

    Old Dan and Little Anne

    ugh. These fucking Michigan white people taking their country back. Fuck off, assholes.

  64. 64.

    enplaned

    Goddamn Hillary Fucking Clinton. SHE SHOULD NEVER HAVE RUN. SHE SHOULD NEVER HAVE RUN.

    This whole campaign cycle has been a nightmare. It was obvious from the outset that Hillary should never have run. I don’t hate her, but anyone who knew anything about US politics can tell you that the reality is that she’s not liked.

    We are deep into territory where even if she pulls this out, it is totally and completely obvious that another Democrat would have done better. I can’t fucking believe this. It’s like a waking nightmare. I now have a really good idea of how Cassandra felt at Troy.

    And if she does pull this out, we are deep into territory where the Tea Party/Trumpkins will claim the fix was in. We needed at least a clean win. We won’t get it.

    GODDAMN HILLARY CLINTON.

  65. 65.

    Davis X. Machina

    @dmsilev:

    I wish I knew.

    I do. Yhe fundamental depravity of mankind.

    “He hates the same people I hate. Hand me the goddamn ballot” is all you need to generate a close election

  70. 70.

    Cermet

    I will NEVER type that small handed, white pig of a ass wipes name – ever. Now, Michigan is still close and many here say, major dem strongholds aren’t yet reporting. If WI returns, then all will be well. Just need NV and the win will occur.

  71. 71.

    Anya

    @japa21: I am also going to blame the Sanders campaign and their rigged system crap. They damaged Clinton in the worst way possible. They gave Trump licence to harp on those themes.

  72. 72.

    a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q)

    I think I’m beginning to understand how some people felt in 2012. Except there were pretty well-regarded experts this year who got it wrong. WTF?

  74. 74.

    TS

    @enplaned: How about HE should never have run GODDAMN DONALD TRUMP – may he and his white racist clan – too damn ashamed to tell the truth to pollsters – spend their time amid the eternal flames of hell.

  76. 76.

    Patricia Kayden

    @Amir Khalid: Inexplicable. Trump appears to have been smart to go full bigot and get the maximum angry, blue collar, White male vote. That share of the electorate is way up.

  77. 77.

    smintheus

    @guachi: Well I do think Clinton has lost NC, and I don’t like her chances now in NH. The rest are up in the air; I think she can still win FL.

  80. 80.

    jk

    @japa21:

    The cable news channels deserve an enormous deal of blame for constantly pushing the false equivalence bullshit throughout this campaign.

    Also, don’t forget the impact that asshole James Comey had on Republicans and Independents who were considering Clinton before he released that fucking letter.

  81. 81.

    Cermet

    @patroclus: I hope you are correct. Unless people here don’t know what they are saying, the tide may yet turn and this scare can be put behind us.

  82. 82.

    Dadadadadadada

    Guys, calm down. Look at what just happened in Virginia. The less-dense rural counties count their votes faster, since there aren’t as many votes to count. So the early returns favor Trump. But the big-city districts report later, and those results will heavily favor HRC, enough to give her the win. This exact thing happened in VA a few minutes ago.
    The same pattern holds in MI, WI and PA. The redneck vote has been counted, and Trump’s lead can only diminish from now on. Detroit and Flint have not yet counted. Neither have Milwaukee or Madison. Philly is mostly not in yet. None of those states is as bad as it looks.

  85. 85.

    fuckwit

    @enplaned: I dont feel that way about her, but I did feel that way about Kerry in 2004. And this night does remind me of 2004 way too much so far.

  88. 88.

    bemused

    @Nelle:

    Oh yeah, I think that’s what in the minds of many evangelicals. Pence would be a better wager to ban all abortions. That’s why they are willing to overlook departures from their moral codes, just tiny little flaws in Trump like being a serial sexual predator, liar, makes fun of disabled….A Baptist I know had on her fb some Prayer for Trump-Pence thing that rightwingers had going around.

  90. 90.

    Splitting Image

    Florida has been called for Trump. So it’s all down to Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, and New Hampshire.

  91. 91.

    Goblue72

    Maybe when some of us criticize Dems for not taking white working class issues seriously enough, the peanut gallery of BJ won’t be so quick to scream racist.

  92. 92.

    ? Martin

    If Clinton wins this, I’m pretty sure it’s going to be off of provisional ballots in multiple states. It’s looking very, very grim.

    The think I kept warning people about, about why Nate wasn’t wrong for his model, was that the turnout model is very uncertain and his turnout is well above what was expected. Further, it’s a systemic problem in the model – white protestants are turning out huge.

    Clinton isn’t close enough in Florida for a recount, but there’s usually a lot of late ballots that count for Dems, so that may be enough to get into recount range, but probably not enough for a outright victory. NC is similar. PA is still open. Michigan is very nearly lost already as is Wisconsin.

    Unlike 2012, there was a HUGE undecided category in the polls. I expected them to split or go Clinton – doesn’t look like that happened. With GOP likely to control both House and Senate, there’s nothing to restrain Trump.

    Honestly, at this point Dems shouldn’t obstruct. They should make their position clear, and keep repeating to voters – this is why voting matters. The political media needs to be burned to the ground. Comey should be arrested for this, but he won’t because who is going to do it?

  94. 94.

    guachi

    @smintheus: How much was Obama down in FL before the late counted votes came in?

    He was down basically all night by a little bit and then squeaked ahead at the end. But it’s the votes in other states that make me think FL is a goner.

    Just too many weak results in upper midwest states to overcome. And OH called so early.

  96. 96.

    seaboogie

    @Omnes Omnibus: After seeing early returns on Twitter, I just wanted to get home and have some wine, and also read your comments in particular – since you are very much the voice of (sometimes snarky) sanity here.

  101. 101.

    PeakVT

    So any rumors on what Clinton internal polls showed? Were they just as wrong as the public polls?

    I suppose we’ll find out in the months to come.

  103. 103.

    Percysowner

    Well, I’m an old. So if this country goes off the cliff, well, I won’t have that long to deal with it. I’ll probably die poor. I’m OK right now, but I’m living on a public pension so that could disappear, But I have a kid and she wants kids and THAT is what worries me.

  105. 105.

    BillinGlendaleCA

    @BobbyK:

    One thing that maybe needs to be looked at is how much of the success trump is having in states like FL and NC is due to voter suppression of minorities?

    If Trump wins, that ain’t happening.

  106. 106.

    Cermet

    Florida has been awarded to the small handed racist ass wipe. NH looks like it is going in the wrong direction. Michigan is close and I am hopeful. WI is very close too. This isn’t done by a long shot but if MI becomes blue, I am confident Hillary wins.

  107. 107.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Goblue72: Democrats took those issues seriously, Dwight, the WWC didn’t want to hear the answer.

    Ann Arbor and metro Detroit still uncounted.

  110. 110.

    The Dangerman

    @Soylent Green:

    Thanks, professional pollsters

    This, if it plays out bad, will be a worse polling disaster than Dewey/Truman; back then, lots of “excuses/explanations” why they sucked so bad. Today, no excuses/explanations.

    What happened this time? I know 538 was sounding dark but no one saw this coming. Hell, Trump people were basically tossing in the towel about 5 hours ago.

  112. 112.

    guachi

    @Goblue72: I remember being mocked during the convention when I asked where the meat for white non-college educated voters (especially male voters) was.

    I was basically shouted down. Fuck you guys. Told you so.

  113. 113.

    ? Martin

    @Goblue72:

    Maybe when some of us criticize Dems for not taking white working class issues seriously enough, the peanut gallery of BJ won’t be so quick to scream racist.

    This is not a white working class issue. Trump bringing steel industry back to PA? Give me a break. This is straight up political malpractice. The only thing Dems did wrong was not lie blatantly to voters.

  114. 114.

    satby

    I have to go to bed. I woke up stressed out at 4 am, worrying about literally everything: election, job, trip, pet sitter gap… and now watching this is just too much. Me sitting here worrying won’t help anything. So it’s time for sleep in the hopes that the population centers come in and the tide turns.

  115. 115.

    Splitting Image

    @enplaned:

    We are deep into territory where even if she pulls this out, it is totally and completely obvious that another Democrat would have done better.

    To be specific, you are referring to the Democratic governors elected in 2010 in states like Ohio, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Mexico and Nevada, right? Democratic wins in those elections gave the party a deep bench of candidates to choose from, right?

  118. 118.

    Cermet

    @hovercraft: And thanks to the slave holding south, that and 25 cents gets you … well, nothing of much value. It is the College we MUST win and that number is 270!

  119. 119.

    LAC

    @Goblue72: ummm yeah if it wasn’t based on some whining blame the brown people bullshit . Youu are another who should fuck off and fuck off hard

  120. 120.

    ? Martin

    And vote suppression of minorities isn’t a factor here. They’re turning out as expected. What’s changed is that white protestants are turning out in massive numbers.

  121. 121.

    D58826

    @Percysowner: Same here only my finances are more secure. But my nieces and their kids will have to live in a Trump world if he wins. And even if he doesn’t he has shown the GOP that there is more electoral mileage to be gotten from his racist message. and obstructionism/gridlock work

  124. 124.

    GregB

    Well I am sure the white working class wanted to reward the Republican Party for all of their hard work in saving the American auto industry when the economy shit the bed in 2009. Remember hiw hard they fought for those jobs and the workers.

  126. 126.

    Percysowner

    @Amir Khalid:

    Another Democrat like who?

    Joe Biden, if he’d run. Frankly any male would have done better, well maybe not Bernie, and any non-Clinton.

  127. 127.

    James E Powell

    When it’s this close, we can point to one thing, but it isn’t one thing.

    The racism wasn’t the biggest deal because the racists have been voting for Republicans for years. It was the 25 year propaganda campaign demonizing HRC for starters. And that was added to the fact that when it comes down to it, a very large number of Americans cannot imagine a woman at the top. It’s still unusual in most people’s lives.

  129. 129.

    hovercraft

    @Baud: They like most of the populated Northeast, they are not insane. The rest of the country is determined to bring about the end of the world.

  131. 131.

    TS

    @The Dangerman: People were too damned ashamed to say they were voting for the horror candidate. I hope they enjoy what he brings them if he wins. White folks who vote against themselves deserve all they get – shame is they take the sane people down with them – no health care – no decent wages (if they have a job) – horrifying what they have done.

    No pundit should ever have a job again – this is the biggest disaster to hit the world since 1939

  136. 136.

    MJS

    Can we please stop blaming Comey? Or the media? Place the blame where it belongs – on those who voted for Trump, and those who didn’t vote. You know all the people you know who “seem otherwise normal” but voted for Trump? Blame them. Are they friends of yours? You have a decision to make – remain friends with the racists, or tell them to fuck off. Same with family.

  138. 138.

    Mr Stagger Lee

    Well Ohio, my old stomping grounds, You own this, and in four years when are crying over your high paying jobs that never materialized , I will give you the words of Les Claypool in the song Highball with the Devil.

    AS WE STATE NOW …FOR THE RECORD…..YOU BROUGHT THIS UPON YOU!!!!!

  139. 139.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    Good fucking god. Ron Johnson beat Russ Feingold. So much for ‘it’s all about Hillary and Bernie would have won”

  140. 140.

    ? Martin

    @enplaned: Right, so it’s Hillary’s fault that Feingold is losing by 7. This is a white protestant populist upraising. There’s nothing the Dems could offer against that other than to completely reject everything that Dems stand for.

  141. 141.

    JMG

    Look, this isn’t economics. It’s about FEELING left behind, not being behind. It’s resentment of those ahead of you and those different from you. It’s a bundle of negative energy held by white people. Now they’ll ride their own lightning. Trump will crash the economy in short order, so he won’t have much left to give them but pogroms, There will be blood.

  149. 149.

    Rene

    if this idiot wins, he is a one-termer because all the promises he made to his supporters will never happen and their lives will be worse off; markets already crashing so that’s going to affect economy, their jobs are not coming back like he promised and no new ones will show up either’

    this will be a disaster for this country if he wins, i worry for my kids’ futures; all the progress we made will now be thrown away; i’m near retirement age; now, that will be many more years away

    so ashamed of my country tonite; never felt this way before

  150. 150.

    Davis X. Machina

    @James E Powell:

    …when it comes down to it, a very large number of Americans cannot imagine a woman at the top. It’s still unusual in most people’s lives.

    Matt Yglesias tweets: “The facts are what they are, but I find this turn of events fundamentally hard to square with Obama’s strong approval ratings. A 54% approval rating for the incumbent does not to me look like a country crying out for an outsider or a county besotted with racism.”

  153. 153.

    enplaned

    More broadly, this is a failure of the entire Democratic powers that be. I love me some Obama — 2008 Obama is the only political campaign I ever worked on — but the deal was clear. The Clintons campaigned for him in 2012 in return for him greasing the skids for Hillary in 2016. Anyone who was part of that deal is culpable. That includes Obama. A real failure to understand, well, anything about how she was viewed by the country.

    I reject, completely, the notion that there was no other talent than Hillary. If she’d stood aside, there would have been a dozen candidates, and just like, for instance, 1976, one or three would have risen to the top. For sure whoever rose to the top would have been as qualified as Trump.

  154. 154.

    Cat48

    @Kay:

    I went to Upshot & almost threw up. I’m not looking anymore, I’ll just will watch the news here. It’s just so painful.

  155. 155.

    Kay

    @? Martin:

    it’s true. The only thing they could have done was move towards Trump and Democrats can’t do that. It wouldn’t work anyway. They’d then just lose the Dem base.

  158. 158.

    cckids

    @? Martin:

    The only thing Dems did wrong was not lie blatantly to voters.

    This. Every one of the approximately 6000 interviews with the WWC voters I’ve read/heard/seen; the things they want, Trump can’t give them. They WANT someone to lie to them and hold their hands and point out people to hate and scream at. Their father/grandfather’s working life is GONE, mostly due to people like Trump and St. Reagan. They don’t want to know the truth.

  160. 160.

    Robert Sneddon

    @Percysowner: Patrick Molloy ran in the primaries and lasted short. Webb ran too if I recall, same thing happened. Senator Sanders went the Trump route with big rallies, word salad speeches and no actual policies to speak of, and lost steadily and increasingly until the convention.

  161. 161.

    bemused

    @Betty Cracker:

    Jesus. Feingold loses to one of the dumbest men on earth.

    At this point I’m not entirely sure that I am not just having a nightmare and this whole night isn’t real. What it is insanity.

  162. 162.

    OGLiberal

    I hate effing white Americans and eff any white effing person for telling me to shut up. We own this mess. We let this happen. WTF??? Seriously, WTF????

  164. 164.

    Fair Economist

    Yeah, if Feingold couldn’t win Wisconsin, Sanders would have been obliterated after getting smeared for his Soviet honeymoon and a 15 trillion dollar tax hike.

  166. 166.

    patroclus

    Michigan still closing – down to 38,000. But now the real worry is Wisconsin – with Johnson winning, it doesn”t look good.

  167. 167.

    PaulWartenberg2016

    I honest to God cannot understand what is happening here. I knew Florida would be close but this is insane.

    I can’t believe Wisconsin is going the way it is, unless the damn suppression efforts there worked.

    This can’t be happening.

    There can’t be this many goddamn idiots in our country voting for this crooked, sexist, racist bastard.

  170. 170.

    Fuzz

    @cckids:

    They already know the truth, they just want to be made to feel good about themselves while their town is ravaged by heroin and half the population lives on some phony disability claim for a fake back injury.

  171. 171.

    enplaned

    Yes, Obama’s strong ratings and Hillary’s failure to convert on those ratings, indicate the failure was *PERSONAL*TO*HER*. This is not a generic anti-woman result. This is specific-to-this-woman.

  172. 172.

    Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism

    @MJS: Yeah, there was a lot of talk earlier today about not unfriending people over politics, but I’m having trouble imagining that right now. I’m having a lot of trouble imagining keeping to that ideal when things crash around us.

  173. 173.

    smintheus

    @guachi: I would have been shocked if Clinton had won OH. Also pretty surprised if she’d won NC. So far, no surprises except for the level of Trump’s victories in those two states. The Columbus Dispatch poll is a gold standard and it suggested OH would be a lot closer.

  175. 175.

    SenyorDave

    I think we need to see some of voter project in this country. An effort to register every person and get the voting percentage up to 80%+. Because voting still correlates pretty well with age (the older you are the better chance of voting you have). So the Democrats would do well to make people feel guilty about not voting.

  177. 177.

    GrandJury

    I think all the finger pointing right now about who did what wrong is kind of premature. There will be another 2 years to talk about that. I do have to laugh and the Bernie bros thinking he could have done better.

  180. 180.

    Mnemosyne

    @Goblue72:

    Maybe when some of us criticize Dems for not taking white working class issues seriously enough, the peanut gallery of BJ won’t be so quick to scream racist.

    Trump ran an openly white supremacist campaign, complete with Jew-baiting. Please explain how that proves that white working-class voters are not overwhelmingly racist.

  182. 182.

    Amir Khalid

    @Percysowner:
    Any man like Jim Webb? Like Mike O’Malley? Like Lincoln Chaffee? Like Joe Biden, who has never done well in the primaries outside his home state? No, I really do think Hillary is the best candidate the Democratic party had this cycle.

  184. 184.

    eric

    Benchmark Politics @benchmarkpol
    Only a 30k vote difference in Michigan. Detroit alone can make up about 130k difference.\\

    WI is the scarier place

  185. 185.

    Cermet

    The Senate is gone; race still is going as MI gets closer; without WI, we lose. What will turn that around? Worried here. Anyone?

  186. 186.

    The Dangerman

    @James E Powell:

    It was the 25 year propaganda campaign demonizing HRC for starters.

    True, but that’s the “why”, not the “what”; it doesn’t much matter the “why” as long as the “what” is the key metric (and by “what”, I mean HRC is just not well liked).

    I suggested over the Summer, maybe back in the Spring, that HRC loses to just about any of the other Republican candidates and was shouted down; well, Trump, the most unelectable piece of shit to be at the top of any ticket, might win.

    Disgusting.

  190. 190.

    Peale

    @GrandJury: agreed. I’m not certain where we go from here. You can’t trust your polls. I can’t trust my Hispanic voter surges. It doesn’t really pay to do much but wait to see what’s next.

  195. 195.

    SenyorDave

    @bemused: At this point I’m not entirely sure that I am not just having a nightmare and this whole night isn’t real. What it is insanity.

    Are you expecting to wake up to Suzanne Pleshette and realize it was just a bad dream? That you were in this crazy version of America where half the people will vote for a lying, stealing from charity, thief/scam artist who brags about sexually assaulting women as their POTUS?

  196. 196.

    Tazj

    My son,who is elementary school, told me today that his teacher, who is a young white woman, is voting for Trump. She told the whole class. This makes me very angry. I almost feel like calling the school. I won’t, that would be crazy.
    My husband who likes Trump didn’t vote at all. He will be happy.
    I’m just venting.

  198. 198.

    ? Martin

    @JMG: No, some of it is about being left behind. The job growth and wage growth is ENTIRELY among those with a college degree. Historically, white protestants believed that they could be economically successful in spite of not having a degree. We’ve been saying for decades to not rely on that, but the policy supremacy for whites has allowed them to succeed despite that degree. That wasn’t true for any other group.

    Now, it’s not fair that white protestants had that advantage, but they had it. And that advantage is gone. Now, what are we to do, fire up the coal mines and unplug the robots so they can have jobs? Of course not, but sending some 50 year old from West Virginia to college isn’t going to happen either.

    They are being left behind economically. Trump blamed all of it on forces that aren’t actually causing the problem, and voters are going to demand those remedies and either Congress is going to reject those remedies, or they will go through and the economy is going to fucking die. Either we deliver the populist remedies and fall immediately into recession, or we reject those and face an even fiercer populist backlash.

    But the public isn’t being educated on what’s actually happening and unalterable. Lots of people to blame for that. But there’s a real risk for the GOP still in winning – they can’t deliver on ANYTHING they promised. None of it.

  200. 200.

    SenyorDave

    @Amir Khalid: The only one that I think might have been better, and I emphasize might, IMO was Warren. Although by the time the media was done, her Native American heritage question would have been a bigger issue than Trump being a thief who stole from his own charity and bragged about sexually assaulting women.

  201. 201.

    eric

    Benchmark Politics @benchmarkpol
    Currently a 50k vote difference in Wisconsin. Madison is good to make up 100k, depending on other counties

  214. 214.

    ? Martin

    @cckids:

    Their father/grandfather’s working life is GONE, mostly due to people like Trump and St. Reagan.

    That’s not correct either. Look, it was nobody’s fault that farming as a general occupation for non-high-school degree holding individuals vanished. It was an inevitable result of technological progress, and we’re better off because of it, but farmhands at that time got fucked over pretty hard. Tractors and combines put them out of work and they weren’t educated enough to move into the manufacturing jobs at the time.

    The same transition is happening now. The US manufacturing sector has never been stronger. Manufacturing output is at record high. But it’s all driven by automation, not labor. That’s the story, and that’s not the fault of Reagan or anyone else. It’s not a failure of unions or Republicans or Democrats. It’s an inevitable outcome of technological change, and the US is ahead of the curve on adopting technology in industry.

    In 2009, when unemployment hit 10%, the unemployment rate for college educated never went higher than 5%. College educated workers didn’t lose their jobs in large numbers. They didn’t take big wage cuts. That part of the economy held, and the non-college educated part of the economy got automated – computers, databases, robots, etc. And that’s only going to get worse. EVERYWHERE. Manufacturing jobs in China are falling. In Mexico they’re falling. Manufacturing jobs are going the way of farming jobs, and nobody will fucking tell the public the truth about that. Nobody on this fucking board will admit to that fact, demanding that we keep clapping for the union fairy to stay alive.

    I take no pleasure in this. I don’t wish it along, but I read a LOT about this kind of stuff, and the data is inarguable. It is inevitable, as much as climate change is. We have to face up to it, tell the workers the truth about it, and start working on a realistic plan to protect them. Opening up coal mining is not a plan, it’s a lie. Globalization is unavoidable. Free trade is unavoidable. They carry intense problems and you can either work to address those problems or you can deny their inevitability. We’ve chosen the latter, and it’s clear that we’re doing to double down on that. Clinton was a realist on this. So was Obama. The public wouldn’t hear it and the media wouldn’t do anything to educate the public.

  218. 218.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    Brad Heath ‏@ bradheath 28m28 minutes ago
    Clinton is getting crushed in the counties where unemployment has *improved* most since 2010.

  219. 219.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    @? Martin:

    The same transition is happening now. The US manufacturing sector has never been stronger. Manufacturing output is at record high. But it’s all driven by automation, not labor. That’s the story, and that’s not the fault of Reagan or anyone else. It’s not a failure of unions or Republicans or Democrats. It’s an inevitable outcome of technological change, and the US is ahead of the curve on adopting technology in industry.

    I’ve worked in manufacturing my entire career – it’s not just automation – the US manufacturing is all about skilled labor. Jobs that needed just warm bodies are constantly pushed over seas the tech matures. New tech needs a lot people.

  221. 221.

    ? Martin

    Michigan and PA may come through in recount or close to that. But Wisconsin is basically lost. She loses without WI, assuming she still gets NV, NH. GA is gone. AZ is gone.

  222. 222.

    Taylor

    @? Martin: Martin, people are predicted that robot truck-driving is coming a lot faster than anybody expects, maybe enough to be a political issue by 2010. How many millions will that put out of work?

    Hillary tried to talk about the “gig” economy, but our fucking media just wanted to talk about emails.

  225. 225.

    ? Martin

    @Enhanced Voting Techniques: But the overseas manufacturing is increasingly automating as well. What you’re seeing is what GM is doing – moving the manufacturing of the product into the market where it’s selling. What does it matter to make it in the US is there’s no labor involved?

  226. 226.

    Peale

    @Enhanced Voting Techniques: yep. Trump offers to undo this by ripping up trade deals, but he’s going to find relatively quickly that you don’t get to do that and negotiate to just keep the export trade you want and just make the imports go away.

  227. 227.

    MuckJagger

    @JMG:

    Does that matter? Sam Brownback was a freaking disaster for Kansas and they re-elected him. Paul LePage is an embarrassment far and beyond the size of his state and they re-eleted him. Rick Scott is a fucking fraud, and he got re-elected.

  229. 229.

    ? Martin

    @Taylor: If it was the entire sector – 6 million. But that’ll take a while. You’ll knock out hundreds of thousands with long-haul trucking which will come first. Port to distribution will be much easier than the FedEx truck that drops the package off at your door. That will take quite a bit longer, but it’ll be clear that it’s coming.

    ⅓ of delivery costs is labor, but what’s much worse economically is that the labor is constrained by hours, so it slows delivery which costs businesses even more. See Amazon’s success as they continue to reduce delivery times. Speed matters, and self driving vehicles can go 24/7.

  230. 230.

    lgerard

    well at least the upcoming stalinist “nevertrump” show trials will be interesting

    and the Trump U trial

  231. 231.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    @? Martin: warm bodies are used when those bodies are cheaper than automation. China got pricey so that’s why they are automating.

    They tried automating what I do and it failed – the products change to fast and are to complex to make using a robot worth while and it takes someone with a lot skill to make or fix it. That’s why it’s in the US.

  232. 232.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Earl: very curious: Why? And I say that as someone who doesn’t like Feingold (for his preening sanctimony)

  234. 234.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    @Peale: The problem is it’s all a complex mess, we import/export a lot off stuff. My place we design stuff here, do the new product introduction here, then make it in Taiwan, but repair it here. On top of it both Americans and Taiwanese invest in it. And Trump just just going to go crashing headlong into that.

  236. 236.

    Peale

    @Enhanced Voting Techniques: we don’t actually have a trade deal with china to rip up. This should be, ummm, interesting. If he does half the stuff he said he’d do, he’d better be building a very big wall and a lot more than 400 ships for the navy.

  238. 238.

    Miss Bianca

    @Amir Khalid: We are not only deeply racist, we are even more deeply misogynist. And, apparently, dumber than dirt. I apologize, as an American, to you and to the rest of the world.

  240. 240.

    Ruckus

    @? Martin:

    they can’t deliver on ANYTHING they promised. None of it.

    They can’t but that won’t stop them from doing the stupidest shit possible to try, as you pointed out. Their wish list is long and stupid and racist, and misogynistic, and did I mention fucking stupid, and they will attempt to put it all in play. Even if they thought that it would ruin the country or not, they’d still do it. Even with Clinton in and the senate gone, it won’t be pretty. We will spend 4 yrs in a holding pattern of nothing getting done with conservatives expecting to be able to take the place over in 4 yrs. They have no incentive to work with us at all. None. And they won’t.

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