We should tell China that we don't want the drone they stole back.- let them keep it!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 18, 2016
What do you mean we, Kemo Sabe? https://t.co/GFG3AphSkY
— Schooley (@Rschooley) December 18, 2016
Assuming you’re telling Russia the same thing about the election. https://t.co/9MAeSOFdfz
— Freddie Campion (@FreddieCampion) December 18, 2016
Unlike Trump products, it’s made in the US, not China https://t.co/UcBT7dhVwD
— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) December 18, 2016
Go back to the U.S. EP-3 spy plane standoff with China in 2001, imagine it happens again, and factor in this kind of rhetoric. https://t.co/xl90fTq2z6
— Chris Buckley ??? (@ChuBailiang) December 18, 2016
Bloomberg Politics, “Why China’s Seizure of a U.S. Naval Drone Is So Provocative: Q&A”:
… While confrontations between U.S. and Chinese military ships or planes occur on occasion, this is the first time China has seized an American underwater drone. The last major incident between the nations in the South China Sea happened in 2013, when a Chinese vessel nearly collided with the Cowpens, an American missile-carrying cruiser. Four years earlier, Chinese ships had harassed the U.S. Navy vessel Impeccable, leading to American protests.
In 2001, shortly after former President George W. Bush took office, a Chinese jet collided with a U.S. spy plane operating in the South China Sea, which made an emergency landing on Hainan Island. China eventually released the crew and the plane after the U.S. expressed regret for the death of a Chinese pilot and for entering Chinese airspace without verbal clearance…
4. What could explain the seizure?
Many theories are floating around. According to Zhang Baohui, director of the Center for Asian Pacific Studies at Lingnan University in Hong Kong, one possibility is that the American drone was conducting surveillance against a Chinese nuclear submarine, and China felt the need to deny the U.S. vital military secrets.
Alternatively it may have been a response to Pacific Command chief Harry Harris’s comments last week that the U.S. would confront any Chinese attempts to control the South China Sea. Less likely, it may be due to President-elect Donald Trump’s recent questioning of U.S. policy toward Taiwan or a move by an overly assertive military commander…
5. Where are things likely to go from here?
Early indications appear that China will return the drone. The Global Times, a state-run newspaper affiliated with the Communist Party, cited an unnamed Chinese official saying it seized the unidentified device due to concerns over navigation safety. China had received the U.S. request to return the device, and the matter should be resolved smoothly, the report said.
11:54AM— Trump Comms Director credits Trump for getting China to return drone.
7:59PM— Trump says China can keep it. pic.twitter.com/wqckUce7yl
— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) December 18, 2016
My prediction for tomorrow’s Sabbathday Gasbags Hot Take: Trump’s drone tweet was a crafty distraction from revelations about Russian hacking…
Trump thinks goading China is like calling Cruz ‘lying Ted.’ Just fun, right? Not how China sees it. He won’t learn that until too late.
— Evan Osnos (@eosnos) December 17, 2016
Schlemazel
How long before this douchenozzel get people killed? Can there be a limited nuclear exchange?
PaulWartenberg2016
I want the Chinese to return the sub with graffiti covering it saying “Suk our Long Duk Dong, Trump”
Schlemazel
BTW – they need 3 days to examine the piece & 1 day to reassemble, they will give it back near the end of the week unless there is PR to be had from holding it longer..
JPL
Anne’s right. Sunday talk shows will be about Russian hacking, unless the Don can figure out a way to change the subject.
Ignore the tweet, MSM.
Jeffro
@Schlemazel: Oddly enough, that’s what I just put out there in the thread below…you know, just one nuke, a small one, on wherever Orangemandias “feels” ISIS would be hurt the most. What could go wrong?
Botsplainer
@Schlemazel:
A smart terror leader has something in the works against 3 or more foreign Trump interests ready to play simultaneously on January 21.
SiubhanDuinne
Not too many months ago, I would have laughed and pointed and said, essentially, “That Trump! Gosh! Isn’t he droll?!?!?”
I’m no longer able to muster even the faintest smile.
Do I overreact? Very well, I overreact.
gratutious
Isn’t it weird how the capture of our spy plane early on in Bush’s administration has sort of disappeared from the national memory? I submit that after the Chinese thoroughly humiliated Bush (the major “victory” by the Bush administration was getting the Chinese to agree to supply Bibles to the hostage flight crew), had a good look-see at our state-of-the-art spy plane, and then turned plane and crew over to the Russians (who similarly got to discover all the secrets the plane had to give up), there were folks observing the fiasco who rated the Bush administration’s likely effectiveness in heading off an attack. By September, their plans were in place.
SiubhanDuinne
@JPL:
Do we know who’s going to appear on what Sunday morning shows tomorrow? I think there’s a site that always publishes the guest lists, but I never can remember what it’s called or where to find it.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
I remember poor old Karen Hughes, in yet another case where she played the doting Mommy desperately trying to prove to the rest of the family that her baby was not dumb, bragging about the President having asked really great questions, to wit(less): Do they have bibles? are they being allowed to exercise?
Schlemazel
@Botsplainer:
I certainly expect something awful within the first 3 months. They are going to want to goad the moron into doing something stupid. It might be a Trump hotel or it could be some American target but I have no doubt the bastard will oblige their desire and do something monumentally stupid in return
SiubhanDuinne
@gratutious:
Rachel pointed out last night that the Chinese for years have made a habit of provoking the US in the first few weeks of every new administration. Not sure whether this “seized and returned drone” counts as the first Chinese nose-thumbing to the incoming Trump presidency, or if they’re holding something in abeyance for February or March. But as long as Trump nibbles the bait, I guess it doesn’t matter.
Feathers
Agreeing with all outrage and adding can you imagine if Obama..,.
Also, did anyone else get a metalhead dating site ad on last nights waifu post?
John Weiss
@Schlemazel: Don’t even dream of a nuclear exchange of any sort. Nightmares aren’t good for your mental health.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@SiubhanDuinne: TPM and HuffPo used to do it, but seem to have stopped. I make a google when I’m curious, usually to count Ds vs Rs
Clay Pell, of Rhode Island? Should there be a Roman numeral after that name? (again, google suggests a IV)
lollipopguild
@Schlemazel: Once the birds start flying both sides will fire at will. If you don’t you risk losing some of your weapons. The Chinese might try nuking Guam and then dare us to retaliate.
JPL
@SiubhanDuinne: NYTimes used to provide a list, but not anymore. I just go to the individual news sites.
Face the Nation: Kissenger and Kellyanne Conway
This Week: Donna Bazile and James Woolsey
MTP: Robert Gates and John Podesta. Rick Santelli from CNBC will be on the panel so maybe he’ll be ranting and jumping on chairs.
It’s a good day to sleep in
Jim beat me to it.
Jeffro
Among all his other faults, possibly the most dangerous one of Trump’s is how easily he gets played. The most dangerous fault of the rest of the GOP is that they’ll go along with his over-reactions to being played until it’s far too late.
Smedley Darlington Prunebanks (Formerly Mumphrey, et al.)
Shit. We have more than a month before the guy even takes office, and I’m already ready for his administration to be over. I keep telling myself that as long as we can keep from starting a nuclear war or a worldwide conventional war, we’re going to make it through the next four years somehow. But damned if this guy isn’t doing his best already to end all life on Earth.
Peale
@SiubhanDuinne: I can’t remember what they did to Obama, save tell him to get out of the room during a climate summit early in his presidency.
Adam L Silverman
@Schlemazel: Its commercial, off the shelf tech. They can buy one for $150,000. If they don’t already have one. And knowing the Chinese, even if they don’t have one, they already have the specs.
SiubhanDuinne
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Looking at those lineups, I’m just as glad I’ll be getting ready to go see the Bolshoi’s “Nutcracker” at the time. Much more realistic and informative.
Studly Pantload, the emotionally unavailable unicorn
@Botsplainer: Egad, I hadn’t thought of that. Not only is patronizing a Trump establishment an assault on one’s senses/sensibilities, outside of the US it could be a risky proposition, life-and-limb-wise — possibly all the more so if you’re American.
Adam L Silverman
@efgoldman: And if you read their official response, its clear who the message is directed at:
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/12/china-negotiations-seized-underwater-drone-161217135305893.html
Adam L Silverman
@gratutious: Our guys and gals burned everything on the way down and the rest on landing as per protocol. As they came off the plane on the tarmac in China the critical and sensitive systems were all smashed and smoldering.
Botsplainer
@Schlemazel:
My January 21 scenario is my “Donald Trump as last president of the United States as currently constituted” scenario, and results in multinational peacekeeping forces acting to preserve some semblance of order in New York and Environs, like Shanghai in the 30s. The rest of the country becomes a sort of rump US with some outward forms, really controlled by warlord generals supporting adequately connected civil authority.
SiubhanDuinne
@JPL:
To paraphrase Charles Pierce: Is it a good day to sleep in? It’s always a good day to sleep in!
msdc
“Less likely.”
You also have to love how Bloomberg turns “violating decades of international protocol so he could close a hotel deal” into “questioning US policy.” Heckuva job, guys.
Jeffro
@Smedley Darlington Prunebanks (Formerly Mumphrey, et al.):
Same mantra here – we can always pass Social Security again if we have to. Can’t un-nuke the world.
SiubhanDuinne
@Feathers:
For the last couple of days I’ve been getting ads for some Michelle Malkin TV program.
Another Scott
@Botsplainer: Donnie is America now, after all. So he’ll just have the Marines guard everything. Amirite?
GovExec:
What could go wrong??
Cheers,
Scott.
Jeffro
@Another Scott:
I wonder if all Trump properties are set up to defend against truck bombs, Mumbai-style shooting attacks, and so on?
Botsplainer
@lollipopguild:
Guam and the US facilities in Japan wouldn’t do well. I’d suspect that a Chinese target list also includes Diego Garcia and Pearl Harbor/Hickman Field.
Shit, if I were a Chinese target planner, I’d also include port facilities in Long Beach and San Diego, sparing SFO and points north out of risk of a countervalue retaliation, as loss of life would be far too great to accept. They do that, and they’ll own the Pacific. Australia and New Zealand would have to accept the new reality.
trollhattan
@Schlemazel:
At this point I’d narrow the question to “Can the douchenozzle start getting people killed before inauguration, or will we have to wait until that day?”
Mike G
@gratutious:
That was a detail of awful I’d forgotten about.
Reportedly that was Chimp Bush’s first reaction on hearing the crew had been captured: “Can we get them bibles?” A petty, bullshit move from a narcissistic, small-minded jerk. One of many early signs that he wasn’t up to the job.
Adam L Silverman
@Jeffro: No, they are not. They have terrible security through environmental design. I’ve been past Trump Tower in NY, the only thing separating it from the street is the sidewalk, which is why they have to put dump trucks full of sand in the way now, though a larger cargo vehicle at max load could still breach them. One of his other properties, just across from the UN, houses several of the missions to the UN. The last time I was in the area (2012) – I was at the building across the street for an event at the Lebanese Mission to the UN – there was nothing barring a breach from the street into the building. The last time I was in Chicago (2010) I walked past his building there. Similar dynamic. Also right on the river if I’m remembering correctly. If I was a homeowner’s insurance or business insurance provider, I would not be willing to accept the risk of insuring someone in one of his properties going forward. They are all now targets. And I don’t say that to be mean. I’ve never been in any. I have no comment on the construction or the quality. This is solely about managing risk.
Aleta
JFK wanted movie “Seven Days in May” made
lollipopguild
@Botsplainer: You mean the parts that are not radioactive?
p.a.
@Botsplainer: @Schlemazel:
Every whackaloon freelancer on the planet knows the Rethug base and pols are racist ignoramuses who will just HAVE to respond to a mosquito bite with a bazooka, to our own detriment. bin Laden knew it, of course 9/11 was no mosquito bite: he (forgive the phrase) hit the jackpot. But our response, given our elected leadership, was predictably stoopid.
Prepare for v2.0.
Remember this is the same crew that sneered at using ‘police procedures’ against terrorism when it has proven time and again to be more effective than poorly aimed, poorly timed, poorly imagined ‘shock and awe’.
Schlemazel
@John Weiss:
Can’t control what my dreams are but I know there are people who seriously believe we would come out ahead in a limited exchange & a PEOTUS who has wondered aloud why we have nukes if we do not use them.
trollhattan
@Jeffro:
Since a lot of the “Trump” properties around the globe are merely branding deals like FedEx field and as such,Trump has no ownership stake, how long before the “franchisees” simply pull the letters off their buildings? I sure as shit wouldn’t want a Trump-branded property in Bangkok or Manila.
BillinGlendaleCA
@Another Scott:
Guess the ShitGibbon isn’t familiar what happened in Iran in 1979 or Lebanon in the early 80’s. Ah, what am I thinking, of course he isn’t.
Adam L Silverman
@lollipopguild: @Botsplainer: The Chinese are not going to nuke anything. While the People’s Liberation Army is large, it couldn’t survive a conventional fight with the US and our allies. The People’s Liberation Army Navy is good, but its not the US Navy and Marine Corps. They’ve got one aircraft carrier, which they’re just now beginning to become proficient in taking off and landing on. We have the capability to reduce that vessel over the horizon. A war with the US is not in China’s interest, nor is it in their plan. The Chinese are neo-Confuscian. They prize order. The extended, drawn out, managed transition from what they were to what they are going to be – including developing the capability to seriously challenge for the role of hegemon – does not include an ill advised war with the US, which would be disorderly. They play a very long game. They have a very long understanding of history. They are patient. And, because for the Chinese their understanding of the norms of war are derived from the Bin Fa/Art of War literature of Taoism, they understand that the apex of strategy is to win without fighting.
debbie
@SiubhanDuinne:
I got that ad too. Her smile is terrifying.
Schlemazel
@Adam L Silverman:
Ah, I didn’t know that it was commercial.
I worked on the development of the Mk50 torpedo and one of the follow-on projects suggested was using it as a base for this type of drone. I assume someone was smarter than our management and had done that. Maybe Hammacher Schlemmer?
Adam L Silverman
@debbie: As long as its not her dressed as a Catholic school girl pretending to be a cheerleader, you should be okay.
Jeffro
@Adam L Silverman
Adam, while I’ve only passed by a few of Trump’s properties (ever, and only by chance) – I hear you and agree completely. I’m shocked that no one in either party has yet raised this as an issue where Trump must divest, immediately. The incredible number of soft targets…the incredible cost to (futilely) try and defend them…the number of lives that are in jeopardy just because his stupid name is on the building…it’s hard to fathom.
Trump won’t care if/when someone does finally raise the issue, because a) this is how he makes his money, and b) he’s all about dominance – he’ll dare them to take a swipe at his properties (most of which aren’t really his anyway). Oh and c) he’ll soon have the resources of the US military to try and defend them, then to launch all kinds of crazy-a$$ strikes in every direction when his properties are inevitably hit.
That’s just the beginning. Wait until a foreign power hijacks his Twitter account…or grabs an ex-wife of his as a hostage…or produces a faux (or not?) hotel-room video of Trump’s 2013 visit to Russia…
Adam L Silverman
@Schlemazel: Yep. Basically all it does is pull in data on oceanographic data for analysis. Salinity and temperature changes and how they affect acoustic signatures. Recording of biologic sounds, depth soundings. Things like that. Important? Sure. Intelligence? Not so much.
Jeffro
@Adam L Silverman: Seconded here. The Chinese will never first-strike nuke anything.
Gin & Tonic
@Adam L Silverman:
With all due respect, they are as susceptible to crazy people taking over as any other nation-state (like, say, the USA.) I am now reading a history of the Great Leap Forward, and it is absolutely terrifying.
NotMax
Knee-jerk asininity is his M.O.
The man is a weeping pustule on the anus of humanity.
@trollhattan
Already occurred at some locations, pre-election.
Maybe can have an iconic video of the letters being obliterated, like in the one of the stone swastika being blown off a building in Berlin.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: Every system is. But I’m talking broad socio-cultural trends and drivers. The messy dissolution of the Soviet Union freaked the crap out of the PRC leadership. They are doing everything they can to manage what they know both is happening and has to happen to avoid a similar result. It doesn’t mean they’ll be successful. It doesn’t mean some general who has internalized far too much of the Chinese nationalist propaganda doesn’t decide its time to speed things along. It is just an observation on how, broadly, the Chinese understand how politics, economics, and society should function and be managed.
Schlemazel
@Adam L Silverman:
Here I assumed it was another bit of our intel gathering work. Could it be that the Chinese think it is? Could it be that it is in fact but simply disguised as a commercial tool? Of course if you knew it was you would deny it so saying it isn’t proves it is! (I am trying to adjust to the brave new world I live in now)
debbie
I don’t know who’s running Richard M. Nixon’s Twitter account, but he’s not amused by Trump.
Botsplainer
@lollipopguild:
Probably little to no radioactivity. Our institutions have been hollowed out by 30 years of conservatism. It would be more like a pathetic whimper. Probably a combo of mismanaged events and some order to do low yield launches against Rakka, some Arab or Iranian target. Maybe a South China Sea adventure gone bad. There will be some resignations, tinpot arrests, refusals to strike. He either strokes out or is declared unfit in the process, but only after he scares the holy fuck out of everybody including Putin.
My phantom Chinese target plotter was basically what Inwould consider Beijing’s considerations.
Adam L Silverman
@Schlemazel: Its Intel, its just not anything particularly covert. From what I understand from the reporting it is primarily used for US Naval vessels as an aid in navigation, as well as for making determinations of sonar contacts – biologic or man made, things like that. So I guess its sort of a type of open source.
The PRC did the same thing in late 2008 during the transition period between the Bush 43 Administration and the Obama Administration. They tried to actually seize, while still attached to the US Navy survey vessel, a towed sonar array. They had a dozen little ships surround ours and try to snag the thing with gaffes. The ship’s captain eventually turned the ship’s firehoses on the Chinese sailors as it was a survey vessel and unarmed. A month or so after the inauguration, President Obama sent the ship back to finish its survey accompanied by an Arleigh Burke class destroyer.
Jeffro
@debbie: It’s an NYC writer named Justin something…he’s so spot-on sometimes it’s scary…
Jeffro
@debbie: More on Nixon/Twitter here:
jk
@Schlemazel:
“How long before this douchenozzel get people killed?”
I’m thinking sometime around the last week of Jan 2017. Donald Trump is an unprecedented waste of protoplasm and a pathetic excuse for homo sapiens. I wish his mother had aborted him and saved us from the 4 year nightmare that will begin on Jan 20th.
Adam L Silverman
@efgoldman: Some of the people around him do, despite what you may think of their politics. Unfortunately, until the transition concludes, the inauguration occurs, and the new administration is in place, their ability to run interference is quite limited.
Botsplainer
@Adam L Silverman:
The correlation of forces in that corner of Earth greatly favor the PRC.
Another Scott
@Adam L Silverman: Yup. AFR:
Cheers,
Scott.
Jeffro
@efgoldman:
@Adam L Silverman:
Exactly right…and yet another thing that can’t be brought up openly (not easily, at least): we’re going to have an unstable person at the top making it more difficult, and yet at the same time more imperative than ever, to focus on back-channel diplomacy.
Botsplainer
@efgoldman:
“Do these people KNOW WHO I AM!!?!?”
Adam L Silverman
@Botsplainer: Sure, if we’re going to fight a land war. In Asia… But we have air dominance and the ability to to project force over the horizon. This makes a significant difference.
opiejeanne
@debbie: He’s not an American, spelling “labor” as “labour”, unless he was quoting someone else.
Botsplainer
@jk:
The fun part is when he starts “firing” people who can’t make these brown people do exactly what he wants.
Over his head, out of his depth.
He’s the guy who can be baited with a tweet.
Jeffro
@efgoldman:
Of that, I have no doubt.
They’re also the first ten locations on my hit list if I’m a terrorist group with more than two members or more than a sidearm between us.
I hate to say it, but considering just how incredibly ignorant Trump is (as evidenced by his passing on intelligence briefings in favor of catching up on the day’s gossip with Lt Gen Flynn), I’d much rather go to bed at night contemplating the possibility that terrorists will target Trump properties – especially ones overseas – than they might focus on other, larger attacks against US facilities abroad and/or homeland targets.
randy khan
@Jeffro:
I wonder if there’s anything in the contracts under which he licenses his name about this sort of thing. I would assume he’d sue if they tried to terminate the license agreements early, but maybe the impact on security would be a defense.
Adam L Silverman
@Jeffro: This is why we have the International Military Education and Training (IMET) Program. Every senior US general officer/flag officer, and a significant chunk of senior O5s and O6s, as well as SESes, GS 14s and 15s have sat in seminar rooms for a year with senior officers from anywhere from 50 to 70 countries. And we also do significant amounts of multinational training. This is also part of the reason why we have Fulbright scholarships. All of these are intended to establish back channel communication possibilities, essentially informal diplomacy, through MIL-MIL, CIV-MIL, MIL-CIV, and educational diplomatic efforts.
I was selected to be a Fulbright Senior Lecturer for Indonesia in 2004. I was given a non-punitive withdrawal, and very considerately allowed to indicate on my CV and resume that I had received the award, because the award was made right around when my Dad died and my Mom was, as you can imagine, a bit upset and my being out of the country and 2/3 of the way around the world would not have been good. Because of what I taught – security studies, low intensity warfare, terrorism, things like that – I was specifically requested by Embassy Jakarta to be placed at a major university in Jakarta – I had thought I was going to a small school out of the way in a rural area in Yogyakarta. It was made very, very clear to me by the Fulbright coordinators that the Ambassador at Embassy Jakarta wanted me in that billet and interacted at functions as part of the US’s educational diplomacy, so I needed to stop complaining about not going to Yogyakarta as this was a big deal, an honor, etc. Of course I didn’t go because of my Dad’s death. This also meant I was not in Jakarta for the tsunami at the end of 2004.
Adam L Silverman
@Botsplainer: Botsplainer?
Jeffro
@randy khan: My guess is, whatever the agreements say, Trump would tell them that for him to walk away and let them take the name off the building, they’d have to pay him even MORE money. They’ll raise the “we’re targets because of you now” argument, and he’ll tell them “you’re only a target if you act weak” (i.e., just by questioning me and/or trying to get out of this you’re making yourself weak) and also “I have the whole US military at my disposal – they’ll keep you safe”
For that latter part…it’s not hard to figure out who he’ll blame when he makes the military try to protect his properties and something inevitably happens.
Botsplainer
@Adam L Silverman:
I was channeling Twitler, whining about foreign leaders and diplomats who refuse to knuckle to his “superior intellect”.
Jeffro
@Adam L Silverman:
Right…because the US military is smart and strategic by doing this and putting its time & resources into it. It’s a shame that it will need to be put to such a test, likely multiple tests in the next few years, because of the man-baby.
And good on you for the award, seriously!
Adam L Silverman
@Botsplainer: I know, I was trying to play straight man. I did think about going with:
“I’m Batman!”
Lizzy L
@Adam L Silverman: Some of the people he is surrounding himself with do “get” messages, yes. I have no confidence that their responses to those messages can be relied upon, or that T will even understand what they tell him. I don’t wish to comment on the man’s intelligence — I just don’t know — but I’m pretty sure he doesn’t do nuance, and that he doesn’t listen to anybody for more than 3 minutes.
opiejeanne
So, tomorrow we’ll be at Story Tavern in Burbank at 11am, looking for the locals. Hope to meet a bunch of you tomorrow.
Omnes Omnibus
@Botsplainer: Uh huh.
Adam L Silverman
@efgoldman: They know. The White House folks won’t need Senate confirmation, but they will have to go through the security background check process. They know that the cabinet picks and other senior officials will require Senatorial confirmation. I think there are a couple of dynamics playing out here. The first is that they got a late start because they didn’t expect to win, or to win without having to litigate. The second is that the top line people around the President-elect have not done this before, so a steep learning cover. The third is that late start got pushed back farther when Governor Christie and the team he had in place were replaced. The fourth is that the President-elect communicates in a unique manner. So we’ve got a lot of light about what is going on, but very little heat given off if I may use that expression.
debbie
@Jeffro:
Thanks!
Botsplainer
@Jeffro:
ISIS is a chaotic bunch of incompetent loons, but Hezbollah and Al Quaeda are on a much different level. Get the right interface with governments of people who aren’t fond of the US, and they can certainly be steered.
Frankly, while Mattis and Kelly would function OK, Tillerson and Mnuchin would be completely outside their skill set for what would be needed.
Adam L Silverman
@Jeffro: Thanks, but the fix was sort of in. I have no idea what its like now, but at that point they had a lot of trouble filling the slots for Indonesia and a number of other places in SE Asia. I had a former professor that routinely – as in almost every year – did at least a one semester stint over the summer term in Indonesia. She knew I was having trouble with the academic job market (despite what you hear in grad school, actually being interdisciplinary/multidisciplinary is NOT an advantage!!!), and recommended I do this. Given that housing is provided, as well as transportation, and the difference in cost of living, she indicated I’d be able to back about 2/3 to 3/4 of my stipend. So I applied and got picked up. I’m not trying to downplay that it was a nice thing to receive, nor your compliment, but I kind of got it because they were in need of warm bodies.
Adam L Silverman
@Lizzy L: I think Gen. Mattis and Gen. Kelly will understand them. LTG Flynn is certainly smart enough, the question is whether this will be a dynamic he flourishes in such as when he was running Intel for GEN McChrystal’s SOF operations or one where he does not, which is what unfortunately seems to have happened at DIA.
Yarrow
@Schlemazel:
Can you imagine being an employee at a Trump property right about now? I’d be making plans to exit as quickly as possible. They have to be the biggest targets around the world. Imagine if some terrorist organization set off bombs on a couple of them on the same day but in different countries. Talk about goading him into overreaction.
Mike in NC
This motherfucker Trump and his sickening Victory Rallies reminds me of the movie “Gladiator” where Russell Crowe (Maximus) tells the Emperor Commidus that “the time honoring yourself will soon come to an end”.
Peale
@Jeffro: actually it’s not a bad move negotiating wise. “We want out because having your name on the building is now costing us $2 million a year in security and we can’t make it up because people are scared to live here”. “Fine, pay me 1.8 million a year not to have my name on the building.”
BillinGlendaleCA
@opiejeanne: I was wondering if that was still a “go”, I’d not heard anything.
Adam L Silverman
@efgoldman: I do not know what contingencies they have in place. I do know that one of the premier attorneys that handles cases for folks who are having trouble getting their clearances or getting them renewed, has filed a complaint, for lack of a better term, in regard to LTG Flynn. From the news article I saw he’s filed a challenge to how LTG Flynn’s clearance was reactivated so that he could begin attending Intel briefings over the summer once the President-elect was the GOP nominee. He’s couched this in terms of the conflicts of interest given that he’s being paid to represent the interests of a Turkish concern with close ties to the Erdogan government. He has also raised the issues of the recently reported breaches (not sure that’s the right word) of information security/classification for dissemination that LTG Flynn was investigated for during a deployment to Afghanistan and his installing an unclassified Internet line into his office at DIA, which is a SCIF. I have no idea what, if anything, will result from this.
jk
@Mike in NC:
Trump has redefined narcissism. I’ve never seen a person so damn obsessed with being at the center of attention every fucking day.
Macbethchick
I just wish one of these open threads would serve as a create the best ‘useful’ presidential title/name for Trump. Always getting a chuckle from all your names for him. Would be nice to have them all in one place. We could use a plank from JG’s back deck as a plaque.
Botsplainer
@Adam L Silverman:
Flynn’s rise has bugged me – he seems mentally ill.
BillinGlendaleCA
@jk:
Maybe a bit before your time, but there was this guy in Germany in the 1930’s and 40’s named Adolf…
rikyrah
Tiger Beat on the Potomac is reporting that the Evil One himself is doing the dirty work of Ferret Head.
Uh
Uh
Uh
Mike in NC
@efgoldman: Governor Cooper and AG Stein will have this shit in court before the year is out.
Adam L Silverman
@Botsplainer: I don’t know him, have never met him. From what I’ve read and from what people that I know that know him have told me he’s very smart and he’s very good at pattern recognition. This can be a great benefit when doing tactical level intelligence for targeting. But without the proper team around someone like this, even a team of subordinates, it can be as much blessing as curse. You can wind up in the wilderness of mirrors.
opiejeanne
@BillinGlendaleCA: We’ll be there. I hope everyone else can make it.
That thread is a bit stale, I was the last one to post there.
Is it too late to email Ann Laurie to put up a reminder?
Adam L Silverman
@efgoldman: It is what it is.
Adam L Silverman
@rikyrah: Alice Cooper is on the Trump Train?
Adam L Silverman
@opiejeanne: I’ll put it up.
Jeffro
@Peale: Yeah, I dunno, maybe not everything is about the level of the negotiating skills? People are already in the crosshairs. I don’t mean to get too wound up but that’s what it comes down to.
Schlemazel
@Yarrow:
The sad part is that it is not hard to guess this stuff & be prepared for it but it is too much to expect Mango Mussolini to see it coming.
opiejeanne
@rikyrah: Cheney?
Omnes Omnibus
@Adam L Silverman:
James Jesus Angleton reference or have I gone down an intel rabbit hole?
opiejeanne
@Adam L Silverman: Thanks. You’re a peach.
Jeffro
@Mike in NC: True. And yet it’s also kind of a tangerine moron’s sense of what a Hitler rally would look like as well.
He’s going to keep doing these regularly for the next four years – he needs them even more than his deplorable audience does.
Adam L Silverman
@opiejeanne: Its up.
opiejeanne
@Adam L Silverman: Thanks again.
Jeffro
@rikyrah: Meaning Bannon is selecting all of Trump’s cabinet picks? I thought that was a given…
rikyrah
@opiejeanne:
Who else?
just walking EVIL????
Adam L Silverman
@Omnes Omnibus: Nope, that’s him. I’ve seen references to him that indicated he walked that same line and wasn’t always on the right side of it. Its what made him so very good at his job, but also, on occasion, took him down many rabbit holes.
Adam L Silverman
@opiejeanne: That’s because I’m too fuzzy to be a nectarine.
And you’re quite welcome.
SWMBO
@lollipopguild: I can see President Dipshit nuking Taiwan in retaliation. Especially if he doesn’t get his new resort on Taiwan.
Adam L Silverman
@Jeffro: From the reporting I’ve seen its Pence and Priebus. That’s certainly was what Gabriel Sherman reported out about a week or so ago.
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/12/trumps-transition-team-is-like-game-of-thrones.html
What’s really going on, I could not tell you.
Omnes Omnibus
@Adam L Silverman: Counter-intel joke: Jesus had only 12 people read in and one of them was a mole. CI folks tend towards paranoia.
opiejeanne
@rikyrah: I’m convinced that meanness is the only thing keeping that creature alive.
Adam L Silverman
@Omnes Omnibus: That’s certainly my understanding.
And good joke.
Aleta
@Adam L Silverman: The Japanese consider China a military threat, including nuclear. Even in the 60s- early 70s, some historians and former military there were predicting China’s slow rise and eventual dangerous (military) domination, incl. of the US.
It’s interesting academically and spiritually for us Westerners to consider how a culture combines animist, Taoist, Buddhist, Confucian origins with industrialization and modern militarization. But for predictions, my sense is to trust more the Japanese opinions on China. Since their background came directly from China and Korea, their understanding of its influence is more realistic than ours. They’re not romantic or academic in the same way we are about those philosophies.
I think their understanding of the Chinese threat is based on direct experience of a military with a very strong propaganda machine taking control of a government that had been rapidly industrializing. Cultural belief in obedience and order worked in the Japanese military’s favor.
A Chinese student I talk with mentioned that success comes from “all facing the same way.” (They see our election turmoil as the US facing many different ways.) In Japan, the pre- and post-war saying was “the nail that sticks up gets hammered down.” Propaganda can recast traditional philosophy for another use.
opiejeanne
@efgoldman: I’m surprised there haven’t been serious attempts already. He’s beyond polarizing, and some people are genuinely terrified of what might happen if he is inaugurated. There are a lot of deranged people out there, regardless of political party.
Omnes Omnibus
@efgoldman: Angleton (Former CIA counterintelligence guy who sort of went over the edge) used the T.S. Eliot phrase “wilderness of mirrors” to describe the odd world of counterintelligence.
Adam L Silverman
@Aleta: I think all of that makes a lot of sense.
Lyrebird
May I be totally self- (and family-) centered here? I’m taking relatives to China, not many but enough to cover a few generations, for a week or two just after Christmas starts. Any and all wishes of safety and non-starting-of-wars-by-PEOTUS would be so so so appreciated.
Lyrebird
@Omnes Omnibus: Sounds like a job that requires one to be some kind of SEAL type who also has mad improv theater skills.
I can’t even keep a [card-game] face, so no CI work for me!
Jeffro
@Adam L Silverman: I cannot tell what the difference would be between a Priebus cabinet pick and a Bannon cabinet pick at this point. Bannon already knows he’s got his establishment-burning pick headed for the White House, and Priebus would be perfectly fine nominating people who’re determined to destroy the very agencies they’re being chosen to “lead”.
Priebus thinks he can control the wildfire no matter how many arsonists he puts in the field; Bannon doesn’t care what burns. Not good.
SiubhanDuinne
@efgoldman:
Vetting? They don’t need no stinking vetting!
Jeffro
@efgoldman: VIPs are funny…they seem to do what they want to do, and leave the planning and security and everything else for the various agencies & agents to deal with. The SS won’t tell Trump to knock it off; even on the off chance they did, he’d just push on them and tell them it’s their job to keep him safe, no matter what he says or where he is.
And it’s not just about keeping these rallies going (although they are his ‘drug’)…I’m sure he has 0% understanding of the effort involved in keeping a modern POTUS as safe as possible.
Lyrebird
@Jeffro: So apt. Did you see the video – something like, “Congress is that new guy at work you had such hopes for…”? There’s an arsonist… Great minds running in like channels and all that.
Jeffro
@Lyrebird: Is that the one with Chris Pine? That was awesome.
Omnes Omnibus
@Lyrebird: No need to be a SEAL (Beat Navy!). Counterintel involves looking at behavior patterns and seeing what is unusual or, as one goes down the Angleton path, what is too normal.
Mnemosyne
@Macbethchick:
I generally go with a nice, simple, easy-to-remember “Comrade Trump,” myself.
Yarrow
@efgoldman: You try to tell Trump he can’t do something. Ha ha ha ha ha. If they take his phone away he’ll make a big show of taking the presidential limo out, stop at some phone place and sign up on the spot. “I’m the President of the United States! I can do what I want!” There’s no way they’ll get him to stop his rallies.
Lyrebird
@Jeffro: Ah yes. Here is the link – it is with Chris Pine Not gonna watch it again now, even though yes it’s brilliant… Here’s hoping it’ll be funny again after we get through the next four years!
Lyrebird
@Omnes Omnibus: Yeah I guess peak physical fitness would not be necessary, just peak ability to act like the not-normal is normal and vice versa.
Ew, yucko thought – K. Conway has some of those skills, certainly big-league acting like aberrant behavior is normal skills.
I should go sleep.
Thanks for being yourselves, commenter-folk!
Yarrow
@efgoldman: Well, maybe. But it won’t be the Secret Service’s idea. Maybe Bannon or Kellyanne will tell them to lock him up.
Omnes Omnibus
@Lyrebird: No, Conway is simply a giant bitch.
Yarrow
Google’s doodle informs me that Sunday is Steve Biko’s 70th birthday. For him.
Vhh
@Adam L Silverman: I thinkyou have the metaphor muddled. Where I work at least (physics), a discussion that works people up but provide no real answers or info is said to be “more heat than light”). But do keep up yr very enlightening posts.
opiejeanne
@Lyrebird: I love Alan Tudyk!
Omnes Omnibus
@Yarrow: That so brilliant. Today is my wedding anniversary (divorced after seven years in 2012.) You just gave me the day back. Thank you.
Seebach
@Macbethchick: I always liked Il Douche.
Yarrow
@Omnes Omnibus: You are welcome. Glad I was able to help.
I feel like I might go refresh my memory about Biko. Might find some things that will be useful in the years ahead.
Omnes Omnibus
@efgoldman: It is a weirdly melancholy day, but I am good with who I am with now. If the combo makes sense.
Omnes Omnibus
@efgoldman: Yep, but is she taller than you?
Omnes Omnibus
@efgoldman: Dear god.
cmorenc
@Mike in NC:
I couldn’t avoid watching some of the CNN broadcast of Trump’s rally today in Mobile, Alabama today (because it was on the TV in front of my workout station at the Y. What was strikingly obvious from the silent image was: there was not a single black face among the 30 or so people visible behind Trump, and there were vanishingly few, if even any in the entire crowd when the camera panned back to take in the entire scene (maybe a thousand to fifteen hundred tops at what appeared to be a high school-sized outdoor stadium stand). Black folk are about 25% of Alabama’s population – and 46% of Mobile residents are black One main element of Trump’s rally today in Mobile was his introduction of that accomplished Alabaman who’s a key Cabinet member of his administration – Jeff Sessions. GEE, wonder why the black folk of Alabama are acting so uppity ungrateful toward this great Alabaman Jeff Sessions, by not showing up to honor him on a Saturday. The white folk seem to have made the time, sacrificing the opportunity to instead have been watching them some college football.
Yarrow
@cmorenc: I’m surprised they couldn’t find one African American person to stick behind him. Seems like they were able to do that during the campaign.
I think the media is stupid for televising these things. Send a pool reporter. Make sure they have good security. Refuse to go in the “pen.” And if he says anything newsworthy they can use that. Otherwise why cover it? Do people really want to watch that stuff at this point?
sukabi
@Yarrow: pretty sure no one wanted to watch them before….except the talking heads.
fuckwit
@Yarrow: My favorite version is still this one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iLg-8Jxi5aE
fuckwit
@efgoldman: Has he done one in Nurmberg yet?
fuckwit
@jk: He’s already talking about 8 years. Chances of his re-election in the middle of a war, after a major terrorist attack, are at Shrub-level high.
fuckwit
@Adam L Silverman: Over the past 5000 years or so, China has been a failed state in collapse (like the USSR in 1992, and us, at the moment) about 6 different times. Most recently in the 1930s-1940s. It always comes back in some new form afterward. But they see the signs in the USA and know what’s coming, I’m sure. And yes, instability here is probably not something they’re looking forward to.
Ian
I figured by now that Uday, Qusay, Princess Bathoy and her man-toy would have taken away his phone and twitter.
catclub
@lollipopguild:
Nuking Tibet? Taiwan? Bagdahd?
Seth Owen
@catclub:
China has, I believe, a no-first-use policy. (For what that is worth).
Still, no first use makes strategic sense for them, given the disparity in nuclear capability.
We have NOT taken first use off the table. And the president elect has wondered why we have nukes if we won’t use them. It is easy to imagine a situation where things go badly and he is tempted to use a nuke.
If China were to retaliate Guam would be an attractive target:
It’s a legitimate military target
It’s the closest major US base so it would be the most tactically significant.
It’s well within range for Chinese missiles
While a US territory, it is not US homeland, so it would be about the least escalatory fixed target available.
The civilian population is relatively small so there would be less collateral damage than most alternatives.
It’s far from most everywhere so fallout would be less a problem than most alternatives.
NOTE: This is not to say that it would not be an enormous disaster on a historic scale, an awful tragedy. It would be. But if we postulate that the US has already ‘shot first’ (maybe nuking a Chinese invasion flotilla headed for Taiwan) then the awful has already happened. Under those circumstances Guam might be the least awful alternative from China’s point of view. As I know people stationed in Guam this is a distressing prospect.
HRA
He reminds me of 2 kids arguing over a marble. “Give me back my marble.” “Ok” “No I don’t want it. Keep it.”
He is not even sworn in yet and assuming way too much!
pluky
@John Weiss: Amen. When I was (much!) younger, I got my hands on a briefing book for a war game on nuclear exchange scenarios my father was participating in (career Army). Gave me nightmares for weeks.
pluky
@Schlemazel: “Limited exchange” is the problem. Almost every realistically conceivable game scenario plays out MAD. There are just too many Rubicon tripwires on both sides.
pluky
@Peale: The names coming off. You don’t like it; sue us!
Kathleen
@Aleta: Probably too late to the thread, but thanks for posting that. Those were scary times. Many parallels to today. Ironic how in the 60’s treaties with Russia were considered treasonous. Today, criticizing Russia is engaging in McCarthyism by so called “Left” and treasonous by The Nihilists. JFK dealt with a lot of crazy. The book Dallas 1963 also provides some scary details.