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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / Breaking News: Russian Tu-154 Disappears From Radar

Breaking News: Russian Tu-154 Disappears From Radar

by Adam L Silverman|  December 25, 201612:35 am| 62 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Open Threads, Silverman on Security

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The BBC, and several other news agencies, are reporting that a Russian Tu-154 has disappeared from radar shortly after takeoff from Sochi on the Black Sea. The military jet, believed to be carrying around 100 people, was supposedly bound for Russia’s air field in Latakia Province, Syria.

This is obviously going to be a fast moving story. Russia is on a terror alert and has been involved in an offensive into/on Ukraine’s eastern border for the better part of the past week. So even if this isn’t terrorism or retaliation in regard to Russian aggression against Ukraine or anything else there is going to be those who will attempt to use this incident, and the likely tragic loss of life that has resulted because of it, for their own purposes. There is a real possibility of purposeful strategic miscommunication/desinformatziya here to suit many different actors’ strategic objectives.

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Reader Interactions

62Comments

  1. 1.

    Yarrow

    December 25, 2016 at 12:42 am

    Well, that’s not good.

  2. 2.

    Adam L Silverman

    December 25, 2016 at 12:44 am

    @Yarrow: No its not. And the fact that 70 to 100 people are missing and may be dead is the significant portion of it not being good that may quickly fall by the wayside as different actors look to exploit this tragedy.

  3. 3.

    Elmo

    December 25, 2016 at 12:46 am

    How is it possible that we don’t have a tweet from Orangemandias yet?

  4. 4.

    Adam L Silverman

    December 25, 2016 at 12:50 am

    @Elmo: Its not 4 AM and he’s not watching CNN or Fox right now.

  5. 5.

    Yarrow

    December 25, 2016 at 12:51 am

    @Elmo: It’s not yet 3:00 a.m.?

    @Adam L Silverman: Yeah. I saw this on your BBC link:

    Reports suggest a military music band and reporters were among those on board the aircraft.

    Also, the same link said 91 people on board and then later 83 people. Obviously early reports and information is unclear.

  6. 6.

    Gin & Tonic

    December 25, 2016 at 12:53 am

    So I’ve had *way* too much to drink to post coherently tonight, with my son and sons-in-law here and exploring my whisky/whiskey collection, but thanks to Adam for keeping it real.

  7. 7.

    Adam L Silverman

    December 25, 2016 at 12:53 am

    @Yarrow: Yep, I’ve seen 70-100. My guess is the numbers will fluctuate a bit until an official statement is made.

  8. 8.

    Adam L Silverman

    December 25, 2016 at 1:00 am

    @Gin & Tonic: I would gladly not have to do so. I’m sure I could have just thrown a dart at a map of the world and been able to find something that was breaking and tragic and ongoing. I was speaking with a former student today, one of the partner nation officers I’ve supervised, and we were talking about his last deployment and how so few people, at least in the US, have any idea of all the ongoing, tragic things that are happening. From South Sudan to Aleppo to Ukraine to wherever. As bad a day as it was in Germany with the truck attack, and not to minimize it and the loss of life there and its effects on the families of the dead and wounded, but it was minor in the tally of all the tragic, bad things that happened that day.

  9. 9.

    fuckwit

    December 25, 2016 at 1:01 am

    Can we believe anything from any official statement from anyone anymore?

    I think we’ve entered a hall-of-mirrors situation.

  10. 10.

    Adam L Silverman

    December 25, 2016 at 1:05 am

    @fuckwit: It is becoming a wee bit of a problem…
    https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/812808907554951169

    Follow

    The New York TimesVerified account
    ‏@nytimes
    Reading Fake News, Pakistani Minister Directs Nuclear Threat at Israel

  11. 11.

    GregB

    December 25, 2016 at 1:07 am

    @fuckwit:

    Yes, it definitely seems we are in a theough the looking glass scenario.

    In other news, the mendacious Trump flunky Jason Miller hasbabruptly departed as a media flack only a day or two after being announced.

  12. 12.

    Adam L Silverman

    December 25, 2016 at 1:09 am

    Russia24 is reporting that the crash site has been found. Its in the Black Sea. Also, that those on board including a number of civilian entertainers going to Russia’s base in Syria for New Year’s performances for the Russian forces deployed there.
    http://www.vesti.ru/doc.html?id=2836829

  13. 13.

    Gin & Tonic

    December 25, 2016 at 1:11 am

    So in follow up to my ealrier message, if you ever find yourself in Vegreville, Alberta, stop in to the Red Cup Distillery and chat with Rob DeGroot. He does amazing work. Unfortunately his production is so limited, you basically cant’ find it for sale anywhere.

  14. 14.

    Yarrow

    December 25, 2016 at 1:13 am

    @Adam L Silverman: As a general rule Americans don’t care much about things that happen outside our borders. I’m not sure what the percentage of Americans with passports is these days – probably a bit higher than it used to be because now you generally need one to go to Mexico or go on a cruise – but it’s historically been very low. We don’t travel much outside the country and we don’t understand what happens in those places that we don’t visit. We also aren’t taught much geography and don’t speak other languages at a significant rate, so we’re woefully uneducated about the rest of the world. Our media doesn’t help any of that either.

    For a superpower we’re shockingly uneducated and insular. Probably signs of decline.

  15. 15.

    Mike J

    December 25, 2016 at 1:15 am

    @GregB: That’s Jason “baby daddy” Miller.

  16. 16.

    Adam L Silverman

    December 25, 2016 at 1:15 am

    @Yarrow: I had noticed. Last time I checked approximately 33% of members of Congress, both chambers, had active passports. Among the US population it was higher – between 40 and 50%. The actual percentage of either members of Congress or the US citizenry actually having ever travelled abroad was below 50%.

  17. 17.

    Yarrow

    December 25, 2016 at 1:17 am

    @Adam L Silverman: Sheesh. That’s also not good.

    @Adam L Silverman: Sounds like the Russian version of the USO, maybe?

  18. 18.

    Yarrow

    December 25, 2016 at 1:24 am

    @Adam L Silverman: That’s just sad. Especially because it includes Mexico, Canada and the Caribbean. None of those places are particularly difficult to get to.

  19. 19.

    daveNYC

    December 25, 2016 at 1:28 am

    @Yarrow: The Post called it the Alexandrov military band.

    At least the location somewhat limits the BS that can be spewn. Lovely that my main concern isn’t the people lost. Fucking 2016.

  20. 20.

    Adam L Silverman

    December 25, 2016 at 1:30 am

    @daveNYC: I wouldn’t be so sure about that:
    http://www.nationalreview.com/article/439060/vladimir-putin-1999-russian-apartment-house-bombings-was-putin-responsible

  21. 21.

    Mnemosyne

    December 25, 2016 at 1:42 am

    @GregB:

    As Mike J alluded to, another Trump staffer is accusing Miller of being the father of her child. More links in the other thread.

  22. 22.

    janelle

    December 25, 2016 at 1:43 am

    Just for clarification purposes, the Tupolev Tu-154 is not a “military jet”, per se – it’s a passenger airliner. This particular plane is owned and used by the Russian military and those on board this plane were all members of the Russian military, but the model itself is also used by a number of eastern European commercial airlines for traditional non-military air travel.

  23. 23.

    max

    December 25, 2016 at 1:47 am

    @Adam L Silverman: Russia24 is reporting that the crash site has been found. Its in the Black Sea. Also, that those on board including a number of civilian entertainers going to Russia’s base in Syria for New Year’s performances for the Russian forces deployed there.

    It’s either Russian AF (16 Tu-154’s), Navy (4), or ‘Ministry of Internal Affairs’ (2). I’m thinking Russian Navy, and given near-immediate loss of aircraft this is mechanical failure or pilot error. It’s possible it’s terrorism but not likely, and it isn’t the UA AF either.

    @Adam L Silverman: I wouldn’t be so sure about that: http://www.nationalreview.com/…..esponsible

    ‘National Review floats report of plot based on exactly no evidence’ was pretty much the day-to-day action report for 9/11/2001 to the end of the Bush administration.

    max
    [‘It’s Christmas. Bleh.’]

  24. 24.

    Amanda in the South Bay

    December 25, 2016 at 1:47 am

    @Yarrow:
    If you live in Ashland Oregon it’s a very full days drive just to make it to the Canadian border. I’d argue that the US is so large and isolated from the world it’s not surprising people don’t own passports. You want to pay for my vacation to Europe?

  25. 25.

    Dog Dawg Damn

    December 25, 2016 at 1:53 am

    Just finished painting the living room.

    Upstairs is finished. Living room & kitchen in progress, but totally painted. Putting it together tomorrow and furniture back in place. Next step there is floors, but many other things before that happens.

    Remodeling is hard as hell.

  26. 26.

    Yarrow

    December 25, 2016 at 1:55 am

    @max: The National Review is going to have a hard time keeping up with all the various forms of “fake news” that have appeared in the last few years. Just making stuff up is so 2001.

  27. 27.

    Major Major Major Major

    December 25, 2016 at 1:58 am

    @Adam L Silverman: Jesus, really? I knew the general population figure, but CONGRESS? Eesh.

  28. 28.

    daveNYC

    December 25, 2016 at 2:06 am

    @Adam L Silverman: I was thinking more along the lines that he’d have a hard time saying it was a Ukraine SAM or that a local Air Force did the deed.

    If they want to say that it was a bomb that did it, their options are wide open.

  29. 29.

    Mnemosyne

    December 25, 2016 at 2:07 am

    G decided to put It’s A Wonderful Life on. Donna Reed seriously makes this movie. It wouldn’t work nearly as well with a different actress.

  30. 30.

    Major Major Major Major

    December 25, 2016 at 2:20 am

    @Mnemosyne: I’m watching Doctor Who.

    Tradition!

  31. 31.

    Mnemosyne

    December 25, 2016 at 2:25 am

    @Major Major Major Major:

    Our 23-year-old nephew is just getting into “Dr. Who” now. I think he said he’s about halfway through Matt Smith’s first season.

  32. 32.

    kdaug

    December 25, 2016 at 2:25 am

    And so it begins

  33. 33.

    scott alloway

    December 25, 2016 at 2:27 am

    My movie for the season is Hogfather by Sir Terry P.

  34. 34.

    Major Major Major Major

    December 25, 2016 at 2:31 am

    @scott alloway: didn’t know they made a movie.

    @Mnemosyne: he’s humming right along.

  35. 35.

    Yarrow

    December 25, 2016 at 2:34 am

    @Amanda in the South Bay: Europe is not the only place to go with a passport, but if people want to go there it’s possible to find cheap flights and travel relatively inexpensively. Takes a little planning.

    As for driving for a day to get somewhere, people do that a lot for various things. If someone wants to go outside the borders of the US, I don’t see the driving time as a massive stumbling block.

    Not everyone can afford to travel and not everyone wants to. But percentage-wise the US is way behind most developed countries in the percentage of people who have passports and who have traveled outside their country. There’s more to it than just that we’re a big country.

  36. 36.

    jacy

    December 25, 2016 at 2:36 am

    Home! Survived initial (surprise!) contact with The Boyfriend’s family. They seemed to like me. (And I could tell The Boyfriend thought it went well….) Funny story tho — his son (who is 10) unbeknownst to anybody and just because he thought it was fun, filmed part of the dinner on his phone and sent it to his mom, who is not so happy that her ex has a serious girlfriend. So there were words. She definitely doesn’t like me! But, all in all, a success, and one more hurdle jumped in the long, weird courtship process….. Now I have to wait until my rotten children are asleep so that Santa can visit and bring them the Playstation they don’t know they’re getting. (And I know they’re old enough not to believe in the Big Red Guy, but they’re playing along for my sake….) Me, I got what I wanted already.

  37. 37.

    fuckwit

    December 25, 2016 at 2:51 am

    Passport-related question.

    Mine expires in April. I want to get it renewed before Troll takes over on Jan 20th and either maybe fucks up the process or makes it more difficult to get one… or there’s just such a rush of people trying to get the fuck out that there gets to be a huge waiting list. I have a European trip planned for summer 2018.

    What’s involved in renewing? Last time I renewed was I guess a decade ago; I don’t remember, and maybe it’s changed since then?

  38. 38.

    Jay Noble

    December 25, 2016 at 3:13 am

    @Yarrow: The report I read had 83 passengers and 8 crew, thus the 91 figure. I believe I was on Daily KOS. They said that a large part of the passenger list was a famous folk dance troupe.

  39. 39.

    seaboogie

    December 25, 2016 at 3:43 am

    @fuckwit: Go to your local post office that handles passports (many do, the smaller ones may not). They’ll take your pic, help you fill out the forms, and expedite as necessary if you pay extra money for that option. Or you can use the google machine and do it online (except for the pics). Tis a pretty easy process, while we still have a functional government.

  40. 40.

    magurakurin

    December 25, 2016 at 3:59 am

    @Amanda in the South Bay: I lived in Portland for many years and we went to Squamish BC to rock climb on 3 day weekends all. the. time. It ain’t that far. But your point is still valid. The US is very large and you can spend a lot of time just exploring it alone. But then again many Americans don’t even travel in the States that much. Me, I rode a bicycle across the US and Canada 25 years ago. Very large.

  41. 41.

    Morzer

    December 25, 2016 at 4:07 am

    @Mnemosyne:

    Looks like Miller made it to hump day and so didn’t make it to hump day. I guess he’ll have a lite schedule from now on.

  42. 42.

    Gvg

    December 25, 2016 at 4:56 am

    I so looking forward to Trump being the one to first respond to alarming and incomplete reports from the world, not. He’ll never understand that first reports aren’t and that he need to wait for the facts….

    Who is this Jason Miller guy and why is it significant that some other staffer “accuses” him of being the father of her child? Why should anyone other than them care? How does it relate to Trump anyway?

  43. 43.

    rikyrah

    December 25, 2016 at 5:51 am

    @Gvg:
    Miller was the newly appointed Director of Communications

  44. 44.

    TS

    December 25, 2016 at 6:22 am

    @Mnemosyne: Majority of the US Press simply announce he has resigned – Daily Mail has the “baby daddy” information. Seems everyone connected to Trump will be protected by the US political media.

  45. 45.

    seejanerun

    December 25, 2016 at 6:52 am

    @Adam L Silverman: Do members of congress need passports when travelling as part of an official delegation, like those trade missions they love so much?

  46. 46.

    dr. luba

    December 25, 2016 at 8:42 am

    @Yarrow:

    For a superpower we’re shockingly uneducated and insular. Probably signs of decline.

    Is this an actual change? I seems to me that for most of our history we have been that way.

  47. 47.

    dr. luba

    December 25, 2016 at 8:49 am

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Among the US population it was higher – between 40 and 50%.

    IIRC, it used to be much lower…….9-11 changed everything, and now you need a passport to come back into the country from Mexico and even Canada. I live in Detroit, and remember earlier times when you were jsut waved through most of the time, no ID check. Flying to the Caribbean–Driver’s License was enough to get you home. In fact, valid U.S. Passports in 2012 were 113,431,943 (36%). In 2002 it was 55,169,571 (19%). In 1992 it was 17,950,578 (7%).

  48. 48.

    Weaselone

    December 25, 2016 at 8:53 am

    @Yarrow:

    I’m not so sure. Even smaller countries with nearby neighbors still have large populations that have never travelled out of country. Do we have stats on similar countries like China, India Russia and Canada.

    In comparison to say Europe where it’s pretty easy, cheap and fast to hop on the train system and cross a border into France, Czech, Switzerland, Benelux or Poland within a couple hours, travel in the USA to a foreign country is generally more difficult and expensive unless you live near the border. It’s actually further from Amarillo to the Mexican border than from anywhere in Germany to the border.

  49. 49.

    jo6pac

    December 25, 2016 at 9:38 am

    https://www.sott.net/article/337724-Tragic-loss-of-Alexandrov-Choir-journalists-charity-workers-in-crash-of-Russian-aircraft

  50. 50.

    Origuy

    December 25, 2016 at 9:41 am

    According to the NYT, Russian media is saying mechanical failure rather than terrorism. The musical group was the Alexandrov Ensemble, the Russian military choir (aka the Red Army Choir.) They were well known for putting their own spin on Western music, including recent pop hits.Battle Hymn of the Republic Как жаль.

  51. 51.

    StringOnAStick

    December 25, 2016 at 9:53 am

    @fuckwit: The last time I renewed you had to bring your own photos, which I got at the local Kinko’s. Make sure you do it far, far in advance of when you’ll need it because any global or national weirdness can create huge back ups and paying to expedite it is expensive. Given that we suspect the shitgibbon to shred any and every nonmilitary federal agency, you might want to get on that ASAP, and my thanks for reminding me to check our expiration dates!

  52. 52.

    Another Scott

    December 25, 2016 at 10:10 am

    @Major Major Major Major: Presumably Congresscritters get “Official” passports (or whatever the term is) pretty quickly whenever they need/want to travel. IOW, not having a personal passport might not indicate anything in particular for a particular congressman/woman.

    And they aren’t cheap for normal people, so it’s not surprising that a large fraction of the population doesn’t have one (especially if they’ve got kids). :-/

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  53. 53.

    Adam L Silverman

    December 25, 2016 at 10:24 am

    @max: Satter doesn’t work for NRO. He’s written an actual book on this as a former journalist who was living in Russia as some of these events were unfolding. He’s also written several other books dealing with Russian politics, Putin, etc. He’s a reliable source.

  54. 54.

    lol chikinburd

    December 25, 2016 at 10:31 am

    The Alexandrov Ensemble going down is truly horrible. Probably the most 2016 thing that was possible to happen under those circumstances.

  55. 55.

    The Pale Scot

    December 25, 2016 at 10:37 am

    Well thank God it wasn’t the Red Army Choir

    Red Army Choir SWEET HOME ALABAMA

    Those boys rock

  56. 56.

    Origuy

    December 25, 2016 at 10:47 am

    @The Pale Scot: There’s more than one group allowed to be called the Red Army Choir. The Alexandrov Ensemble is one of them. I’m not sure if the group is this video is them or the MVD Ensemble.

  57. 57.

    The Pale Scot

    December 25, 2016 at 10:54 am

    @Mnemosyne:
    Matt Smith?

    Bah!

    David Tennant is the Doctor!

    Really though, Matt did a great job, I was skeptical about what the future held after David locked himself in that radiation thingy. But Matt really charmed oversea audiences.

    And ya Peter Capaldi doesn’t do it for me, he’ll always be Malcolm Tucker.

  58. 58.

    Adam L Silverman

    December 25, 2016 at 11:16 am

    @seejanerun: Yes. There is an official passport for US government officials traveling on US government business. It has a different color cover than the blue ones US citizens get. And there is a third type just for diplomatic use with a distinct color that is different from either the regular US passport or the passport for US government officials.

  59. 59.

    burnspbesq

    December 25, 2016 at 3:17 pm

    The Tu-154’s safety record is really bad. This is the fourth fatal accident this decade.

    link

  60. 60.

    Morzer

    December 25, 2016 at 4:04 pm

    @The Pale Scot:

    David Tennant is the Doctor!

    Tom Baker or Peter Davison, you bekilted, benighted heretic!

  61. 61.

    Chet Murthy

    December 25, 2016 at 4:32 pm

    @fuckwit: easy as pie. I followed these instructions. TL;DR (1) $110 check, (2) passport photo (yeah,you can do it yourself, but I was lazy and paid the $19 at the UPS store), (3) use online form-filler-outer, print & sign&date, (4) mail it all in to specified address WITH your old passport.

    https://travel.state.gov/content/passports/en/passports/renew.html

  62. 62.

    Chet Murthy

    December 25, 2016 at 4:35 pm

    @dr. luba:

    “What’s a person who speaks three languages called?”
    “trilingual”
    “what about two?”
    “bilingual”
    “what about one?”
    “American”

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