Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

The revolution will be supervised.

Meanwhile over at truth Social, the former president is busy confessing to crimes.

Jesus, Mary, & Joseph how is that election even close?

Speaking of republicans, is there a way for a political party to declare intellectual bankruptcy?

Putting aside our relentless self-interest because the moral imperative is crystal clear.

I like you, you’re my kind of trouble.

Shallow, uninformed, and lacking identity

Just because you believe it, that doesn’t make it true.

The truth is, these are not very bright guys, and things got out of hand.

No offense, but this thread hasn’t been about you for quite a while.

Proof that we need a blogger ethics panel.

We are aware of all internet traditions.

Technically true, but collectively nonsense

Whatever happens next week, the fight doesn’t end.

Peak wingnut was a lie.

Is it irresponsible to speculate? It is irresponsible not to.

Not so fun when the rabbit gets the gun, is it?

rich, arrogant assholes who equate luck with genius

Perhaps you mistook them for somebody who gives a damn.

That’s my take and I am available for criticism at this time.

Damn right I heard that as a threat.

Why is it so hard for them to condemn hate?

A snarling mass of vitriolic jackals

Some judge needs to shut this circus down soon.

You are here: Home / Past Elections / Election 2018 / Let’s Look at a District

Let’s Look at a District

by | 17 Comments

This post is in: 

In my post this morning, I mentioned NY-29 (now NY-23) which was a R+5 district won by a Democrat in 2008. After redistricting, this district basically became NY-23, which is a R+3 district, after blue Ithaca was rolled in. Let’s look at fundraising and results in one graph:

As you can see, the only Democratic win was in 2008, when Eric Massa beat Randy Kuhl by 2 points and raised about $650K more. The next tightest race was Kuhl’s 2 point squeaker over Massa, where they were dead even in fundraising. Oddly enough, the next-best Democratic result was Nate Shinagawa’s 2012 run, where he came within 4 points of Tom Reed, even though Reed outraised him by more than a million bucks. That was a major lost opportunity for Democrats. The worst performance was Martha Robertson’s 2014 campaign, where she raised $2.3 million and got hammered. There was some ugliness in that race that put Reed well over the top. This cycle’s candidate, John Plumb, was not willing to hang Trump around Reed’s neck in a district that had some sympathy for Trump. Reed, on the other hand, got Plumb to distance himself from Clinton.

So, what does this tell us? First, Reed is burrowing himself into leadership and his fundraising shows it. He’s going to be hard to beat, especially in an off year. Second, R+3 is not a crazy push, and the first year that the district was R+3, a decent candidate with meh fundraising got within striking distance of Reed.

Reed knows he’s not in a safe seat, and if Trump continues to shit the bed violently, he’s in danger. A good candidate and an early, decent fundraising haul would have Tom Reed running back to his district regularly. Someone posted the Swing Left Project in the last thread, and this district is not on it. I’m fine with that, it’s definitely not a no-brainer. But neighboring NY-22 (Syracuse), which is a D+4 district, should be on the list – it isn’t. So perhaps there’s some other source of winnable districts, but if it doesn’t have NY-22 on it, and at least mention NY-23 in passing, I wouldn’t trust it.

Reader Interactions

17Comments

  1. 1.

    p.a.

    House Dems will soon be coming out with a list of 50-60 districts they consider flippable, and I assume they will put resources into. YMMV.

  2. 2.

    Woodrow/asim

    The only trouble with SwingLeft I have, is the same issue we have with any system — a lack of data on how “swingable” a district is, and how to determine that with data that we can apply over time/engagements. We need a better effort to find, track, and engage these districts. And that effort shouldn’t have to wait/depend on the DNC/DCCC to get their arses moving.

    I’m working with my Country Democratic Party to data work, but that’s going to take months and is focused locally, as it should be. My strong feeling is every damn Democratic Party org, on every damn level, should be doing similar work, and connecting with each other, ground up; I’m hoping our efforts are a way to lead that fight.

    But I’m open to anyone making a push for this. As a starting point, here’s what SwingLeft says, in brief, about their methodology on their About Page:

    Swing Districts are places where the winner of the last House of Representatives election was determined by a thin margin. Swing Left helps you find and commit to supporting progressives in your closest Swing District so that you can help ensure we take back the House in 2018.

    There’s nothing wrong with that, esp. as they are doing The Lord’s Work that few others seem able to do, right now. So how do we make it better?

    How do we start to work together to win?

  3. 3.

    Woodrow/asim

    @p.a.: That is really good news to hear. I’ll make sure I’m on the DCCC’s list and hope it gets announced there.

  5. 5.

    Thru the Looking Glass...

    … and if Trump continues to shit the bed violently…

    Shit the bed? Hell, he’s going to blow it to bits…

  7. 7.

    DeliciousGuac

    I love the concept of Swingleft, and hope they can improve their research & recommendations. They report that my nearest swing district is a 4.5 hour drive away, in Alabama (AL 02). The Republican rep there won by 8 points, so not that close. I’m in New Orleans, and it’s depressing that so far there’s not a flippable district in the whole state of LA?

  8. 8.

    Another Scott

    I just gave $100 to the Democratic Party of VA. It’s horrible that it takes so much money to win political races, but the fact is (with notable exceptions), the candidate that raises the most money usually wins. And incumbents have a huge advantage in any race. It’s a hard slog to change the direction of a government even when there isn’t active suppression of voting rights, redistricting games, and all the rest. We need to make sure the good guys have enough resources to fight for us even when we want to pull our hair out about the bone-headed mistakes they too often seem to make.

    Keep fighting, folks. If this stuff was easy it would have been done already.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  9. 9.

    Lyrebird

    @Another Scott: Sounds like a good investment. I know Terry Mac doesn’t inspire everyone with his speeches, but his goshdarned determined actions to protect voting rights & his backing up the folks at Dulles pronto are pretty excellent.

    Mistermix said:

    A good candidate and an early, decent fundraising haul would have Tom Reed running back to his district regularly.

    I sure don’t have any answers, but it seems that not just running back to the district but perpetually having to defend the worst of Bannon and Miller’s awful moves would be a win for decency and human rights, even if he keeps his seat.

  10. 10.

    jharp

    Off topic but just sitting here thinking that a huge opportunity awaits us when Trump chooses his SCOTUS pick.

    Assume it’s a bad as we’d expect I think we should pick a day for the largest protest the world has ever seen.

  11. 11.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Another Scott:

    It’s a hard slog to change the direction of a government even when there isn’t active suppression of voting rights, redistricting games, and all the rest. We need to make sure the good guys have enough resources to fight for us even when we want to pull our hair out about the bone-headed mistakes they too often seem to make.

    Keep fighting, folks. If this stuff was easy it would have been done already.

    QFT

  14. 14.

    Ian

    The collapse of Kodak and a few other key industries left upstate New York hurting. I know these people, i grew up with them. Their answer to their problems is trumpism, and I feel very little sympathy for them. If these assholes would quit voting republican New York could get some shit done.

  15. 15.

    oldster

    Thanks for continuing this conversation from yesterday, Mr. Mix!

    So for me, I face a choice: I live in a district that is not so gettable, and it might make sense for me to direct my money and my attention to the district next door, or two down.

    But there’s another factor involved, and maybe some political pros can tell me how much it matters:

    Inside of my district, I am a constituent. When I call my Rep on the phone and they ask for my address they have to listen to me. When I go to a town meeting and speak, they have to listen to me.

    In the district next door, I do not have that status. The Rep’s office can ignore me and redirect me. In their town meetings, I’m an interloper. I have a lot less direct, personal power to make change in the district next door.

    So I could deploy a split strategy: Donate to the district next door, but focus my phone calls and in-person visits inside my own district.

    But honestly, that feels like a lot to keep track of, and it divides my enthusiasm.

    I guess I’m wondering whether in close cases, there should be a rule of thumb that says, “fight for your own district, even if it’s R+N points against you (for N < what?). You live there, they have to listen to you, and this is straight democracy, with no fancy stuff."

    What say the pros? When is your own district so out of reach that you may as well send your money elsewhere? And when is it better to keep your constituent advantage and fight on your home ground, even if the other odds are against you?

  16. 16.

    Smedley the uncertain

    I’m a NY-23 constituent. Reed has been an embarrassment for a while. His kow-towing to Paladino, another ‘fine’ Republican turned him into a Trump Fan boy. This county went for Trump and discussions with friends and neighbors was really depressing… mostly Hillary hate. Facts did not seem to matter. Yet, raising Reed’s congressional record cut no ice. Mentioning that his bills (few) gathered few or no co-sponsors and disappeared in committee engendered no interest. Appearances here were few and far between. It was all knee jerk R voting— Trump for CHANGE! Plumb was a non entity as far as I’m concerned. I do think Reed could be vulnerable in ’18. I hope the Ds field a strong candidate. I plan to help…

  17. 17.

    NW Phil

    @oldster: Work in your district. You will know the people, and can support the up and coming politicians at the local government level. Flipping a district takes time and needs the support of folks like you.

Comments are closed.