Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Motto for the House: Flip 5 and lose none.

A last alliance of elves and men. also pet photos.

Happy indictment week to all who celebrate!

Wow, I can’t imagine what it was like to comment in morse code.

Republican obstruction dressed up as bipartisanship. Again.

Republicans want to make it harder to vote and easier for them to cheat.

So many bastards, so little time.

Following reporting rules is only for the little people, apparently.

Too often we confuse noise with substance. too often we confuse setbacks with defeat.

Meanwhile over at truth Social, the former president is busy confessing to crimes.

Accused of treason; bitches about the ratings. I am in awe.

The GOP is a fucking disgrace.

Imperialist aggressors must be defeated, or the whole world loses.

This year has been the longest three days of putin’s life.

The words do not have to be perfect.

Everyone is in a bubble, but some bubbles model reality far better than others!

Come on, man.

Prediction: the GOP will rethink its strategy of boycotting future committees.

It’s a doggy dog world.

But frankly mr. cole, I’ll be happier when you get back to telling us to go fuck ourselves.

Insiders who complain to politico: please report to the white house office of shut the fuck up.

Take your GOP plan out of the witness protection program.

DeSantis transforms Florida into 1930s Germany with gators and theme parks.

He really is that stupid.

You are here: Home / Open Threads / Montana is Winnable

Montana is Winnable

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Montana will probably have a special election if (not a big if) the Senate confirms current officeholder Ryan Zinke as Secretary of the Interior. This is a winnable seat, and if not winnable, it can be a non-embarrassment.

Trump destroyed Hillary in Montana in 2016 but McCain won by a mere two points in 2008. Jon Tester still holds a seat in the state. A special election campaign where a good candidate (say, Brian Schweitzer-yeah, I know) makes a good run is, worst case, prep for Tester’s steel cage death match in 2018. This race will also be a test run for engagement and turnout strategies for 2018.

Look, in a red state like this, we’re going to get a Blue Dog or whatever new word we will invent for a Democrat with a few views that make some of us cringe. In the House, all that matters is that he or she votes with Democrats when it counts.

Reader Interactions

104Comments

  3. 3.

    Temporarily Max McGee (Until Death!)

    (say, Brian Schweitzer-yeah, I know)

    If you don’t get a majority in the chamber, you don’t control either the legislative or oversight processes. In Montana, there is no likelihood to get your snow white progressive unicorn over the hump, and you goddamned well know it.

  4. 4.

    Calouste

    @JPL: We’re used to special elections having very low turnout. We’re also used to not having half a million people show up in DC to demonstrate against the President a day after the inauguration.

  5. 5.

    Patricia Kayden

    This is how we do it. One seat at a time. I hope the DNC picks its head soon so that the Democrats can get a strategy going well before 2018. YES. WE. CAN.

  6. 6.

    efgoldman

    A couple of threads ago, I mentioned that my kid went over to NBC today to be a talking head interview on a phone wars segment tonite.
    They just promo’d the segment. It’ll be on tonite!!
    This is actually a bigger deal than Jeopardy a couple of years ago.

  8. 8.

    Temporarily Max McGee (Until Death!)

    @mistermix:

    Then quit being emo boy and depressing the vote. After the first graph you should have written “By. Any. Means. Necessary.” and ended the post.

    Fer fucksakes, never get the nice fuckin’ things…

  9. 9.

    Raoul

    Before then can we also give a little support to James Thompson in the KS-04 race? Pompeo’s. I know he is a long shot, and I’m not asking folks to donate if it means they won’t have funds for other more winable ones, but some of us may have a bit more disposable income, and I want every byelection to have a decently funded Dem out there pounding Dem messages, win or lose.

    And if the current Republican President keeps f*ing up as badly as the first three weeks? Thompson could win (and also the open GA seat vacated by Price). The AJC refers to the Price seat as “a referendum on Rump.”*

    *Not their spelling

  11. 11.

    Lit3Bolt

    Run a fucking anti-Russian veteran.

    I don’t care if he’s pro-life, pro-Fuck Labor, pro-Yosemite Sam.

    Anti-Russian at this point is good enough for me.

  15. 15.

    JPL

    @Barbara: I’ve just been doing some local stuff. All elections are local, and they are bipartisan. That’s all.
    It’s not always fun.

  16. 16.

    Kropadope

    @Temporarily Max McGee (Until Death!):

    Then quit being emo boy and depressing the vote. After the first graph you should have written “By. Any. Means. Necessary.” and ended the post.

    Right, how does mistermix dare speak his mind or speak in anything less than glowing terms about a Democrat? It’s not like conceding a point while emphasizing the bigger picture has any chance of lending credibility to an argument which members of the audience may be skeptical about.

  18. 18.

    JPL

    @Raoul: Price shied away from debates, and who ever runs, probably can’t do that. I doubt that many in his district understand that he is against medicare and social security as they now stand.

  21. 21.

    JPL

    @Baud: I did hear about some who listened to the hearings and were surprised about his stock dealings. hmmm I still think that if his wife decided to run, she would win easily.

  22. 22.

    Baud

    @JPL: I don’t mean to imply that the odds would be in our favor. But if we are serious about expanding the map, the data suggests that Price’s seat may be worth some effort.

  24. 24.

    Raoul

    @Baud: Exactly. And while campaign funds, staff and energy are of course not inexhaustible, there can be value in ‘losing forward.’ IOW it can be valuable to do message framing, voter list development, etc on a campaign that doesn’t win if it is part of a larger, multi-year strategy.
    I believe we have to get a lot better at thinking about this sort of thing. Every US House seat should be contested. With decent quality candidates who have access to at least some money and staff/volunteers with some experience, training and support. It’s what the GOP got serious about after Goldwater – they built a machine to start at the base and most local races.
    Yes gerrymandering is part of the GOP story, as is voter suppression. But they control so many state legislatures and governorships in part because they funded and fanned out to win up and down every ballot across every state.

  25. 25.

    Mike J

    @JPL:

    Special elections have very low turnout, and this is still a republican district.

    A low turnout election is the best chance to flip a very red district.

  28. 28.

    Temporarily Max McGee (Until Death!)

    @Kropadope:

    Right, how does mistermix dare speak his mind or speak in anything less than glowing terms about a Democrat?

    There are situations in which the right to speak freely is outweighed by the wisdom to say nothing.

  29. 29.

    Turgidson

    @JPL:

    Perhaps, but apparently that district actually went narrowly to Hillary. In an open seat race in a district that is not overrun with Trumpist zombies and where the Democrats may actually, for once, have the edge in enthusiasm, it’s possible. I wouldn’t put it above 50%, but possible.

  30. 30.

    efgoldman

    @Steeplejack (tablet):

    NBC or MSNBC? Which show?

    If you haven’t seen it, it’s over. Regular NBC News, just before the first break (a prime spot).
    It was only a few seconds, but she looked good, sounded authoritative (which she is, on that subject) and they spelled her name right

  31. 31.

    rikyrah

    Adam SchiffVerified account‏@RepAdamSchiff

    Let’s not forget Flynn attacked his predecessor, Susan Rice, relentlessly, falsely and unjustly for misleading on Benghazi. He needs to go.

  32. 32.

    Turgidson

    Montana seems willing to consider Democratic candidates as long as they seem like real Montanans and aren’t anti-gun. Tester and Schweitzer have that going for them – hopefully there are more who can pull it off. And Tester seems to know the secret sauce of being a reliable Democratic vote without being easily caricatured as a rubber stamp for the ZOMG Obama or Pelosi agenda. Although he hasn’t had to win a midterm yet other in 2006 when he was running against a corrupt sleazebag incumbent and the Bush Administration. Hopefully the Trump regime will do him a solid and make a high-profile unpopular attempt to open up some cherished Montana park for fracking or something stupid like that.

  37. 37.

    rikyrah

    John Harwood Verified account
    ‏@JohnJHarwood

    President Trump’s current job approval in Gallup poll, by race: blacks 11%; Hispanics 19%; whites 53%

  38. 38.

    rikyrah

    Sir James The Second
    ‏@JKH2

    If DNC hopefuls keep ignoring the real threats to voting rights in an effort to mansplain HRC’s “inept” campaign into oblivion we’re toast.

  39. 39.

    Roger Moore

    @Baud:

    But if we are serious about expanding the map, the data suggests that Price’s seat may be worth some effort.

    There aren’t a whole lot of other chances to pick up seats between now and 2018, so it’s important to go for it. The worst thing that would happen is we’d spend a bunch of money.

  40. 40.

    efgoldman

    @Turgidson:

    Montana seems willing to consider Democratic candidates as long as they seem like real Montanans and aren’t anti-gun.

    Some of us are old enough to remember when the Democratic majority leader in the senate was from Montana. Guy named Mike Mansfield. You can look it up.

  41. 41.

    Kay

    Tamara Keith ‏@tamarakeithNPR 5h5 hours ago
    More
    First the Trump team scratched a trip to Wisconsin, now pulling out of a planned trip to Ohio.

    I wonder if the big spoiled toddler can’t stand the protests and jeering he’s met with. It was different when it was all hate rally attendees. He lied about being met with supporters in Florida but he has to go to Florida to get to that country club so he has no choice. I wonder if they’ll start insulating him from the public as he gets more and more unpopular.

  42. 42.

    rikyrah

    Oliver Willis Verified account
    ‏@owillis

    Gateway Pundit’s New White House Correspondent Spent First Day Flashing Hate Symbol From The Briefing Room

  46. 46.

    efgoldman

    @rikyrah:

    The White House has not indicated why the planned visit was scrapped…

    Because they told the AF-1 pilot to make a flight plan for Vienna, but didn’t tell him it wasn’t Austria.

    SATSQ

  51. 51.

    ? Martin

    You guys are missing how to win special elections. It doesn’t matter all that much about whether it’s an R+1 district or an R+20 district. Turnout for special elections is usually a complete shitshow. 25% is considered strong turnout. 10% isn’t uncommon. Christine O’Donnell beat Mike Castle by driving primary turnout to a whopping 32%.

    Turnout is everything in special elections. If it’s an R+20 district and they get a 20% turnout and you get a 31% turnout, you just won that seat without having to flip a single vote. Mobilization energy is with Democrats. 10,000 people turned out for the Womens March in Helena. Helena only has 28,000 fucking people in it. If we can mobilize voters through the Indivisible groups and get them to turn out like this is a presidential election, then we’ll win every goddamn one of these seats.

  53. 53.

    efgoldman

    @?BillinGlendaleCA:

    Now, where’s my walker?

    Probably got washed away over the weekend.
    Seriously, at one time the national news would do a major segment on houses washing down the hills. This year, barely a squib. Is it so routine now? Or have most of the recent build been made to withstand it?

  54. 54.

    Kay

    @rikyrah:

     Yet here’s why Trump’s lies about voter fraud are so dangerous: Republicans in New Hampshire, who now control the state government, have introduced 40 bills in the 2017 legislative session that would make it harder to vote.
    The proposed legislation includes ending same-day registration, which boosts voter turnout by up to 10; restricting voting rights to only residents of New Hampshire who plan to live in the state “for the indefinite future,” which could prevent college students and military personnel from voting; and requiring that New Hampshire residents live in the state for 13 days before voting and get an in-state driver’s license and register their car in New Hampshire within 60 days of registering to vote, which the New Hampshire ACLU calls a “post-election poll tax.”
    What’s happening in New Hampshire is part of a disturbing national trend. Already this year, 46 bills have been introduced in 21 states, mostly controlled by Republicans, that would make it harder to vote, according to the Brennan Center for Justice.

    Anyone who still believes this isn’t a coordinated attack on voting rights is a moron. Democrats will have had 2 years of daily statements from the whole Trump team promising to suppress voting and 46 bills.

    There will be no excuse for not being prepared. None.

  55. 55.

    Tripod

    @Baud:

    The important thing is I took a stand against the big money with my votes for wilmer and uh.. what’s her name.

  56. 56.

    Patricia Kayden

    @rikyrah: Surprised that 11% of Blacks approve of anything Trump is doing. That will probably change when Sessions gets around to seriously oppressing the vote and designating BLM as a terrorist group.

    Here’s one of those Black people who love them some Trump. Never heard of her before. Thankfully.

  57. 57.

    rikyrah

    Luvvie is back with a few questions about the Grammys.

    I Got Questions about the 2017 GRAMMYs: Recap

    Yesterday was the biggest night in music: the GRAMMY Awards. The one thing we can count on is a rollercoaster of thrills and disappointments. And many performances that make me take the time to go to the kitchen to re-up on snacks. It was hosted by James Corden of car karaoke fame.

    Anywho, I have questions.

    …………………………………………….

    * Does Ryan Seacrest have more titles than a car dealership? He was announced as being on the Board of the GRAMMYS and all I could think of was how impeccable his grind is. Just unfuckwitable.

    * Did Beyoncé not steal your heart?? My goodness. That performance. Yes, the intro ran so long that I wondered if she’d have the twins by the time she got started. But seeing her on that stage, giving Oshun fever and Vishnu tease with angel vibes gave me what I needed. Beyonce was like “you heaux said I wasn’t really pregnant last time. GET INTO MY MATERNAL GLOW.” It was truly the most beautiful she has ever looked. Red Petunia and Purple Hibiscus got her looking like a Goddess.

    Lemme pause here to make a quick PSA. I DON’T WANNA SEE ANY THINKPIECES FROM WHITE FOLKS CRITIQUING BEYONCE’S GRAMMYS PERFORMANCE. We don’t wanna hear it, read it, see it. This is the time to use that “shutting the hell up is free” coupon code. It never expires. Shut it up. Her performance was not really giving a fuck about the white gaze, and the entire LEMONADE album didn’t either.

    White people gotta get comfortable with the fact that everything ain’t for them, Some things will even exclude them COMPLETELY. That is fine. Deal. And imagine if 90% of the shit that is supposed to represent POPULAR culture excludes you. see: the lives of people of color, LGBTQ people etc. So yeah.

    * How much running man will my ovaries do at the sight of Blue Ivy? First of all, her parents decided to dress her as Prince, in this pink tuxedo with ruffled shirt.

  58. 58.

    Desmo

    Speaking of real Montanans, musician Rob Quist has announced his candidacy for the special election. He was immediately endorsed by Schweitzer. I don’t know how Rob’s name recognition is these days but there was a time when maybe 75% of voting age folks knew who Rob was and probably half of those had been to a Mission Mountain Wood Band concert.

    I think he’d be a fabulous candidate, if the Dems have the guts to pick him. And all he has to do is talk a little and sing a little. It’s worked before for musician/candidates.

  59. 59.

    rikyrah

    Imani Gandy Verified account
    ‏@AngryBlackLady

    If I never see another tweet thread lamenting the plight of the poor white racist blue-collar Trump voter, it’ll be too fucking soon.

  61. 61.

    Patricia Kayden

    @Baud: It seems as if Manchin is always the sole Democrat voting with Republicans. I still don’t know why he hasn’t flipped over.

  62. 62.

    rikyrah

    Jerry Sandusky’s son arrested on child sex charges in Pennsylvania

    Pennsylvania state police have arrested Jeffrey Sandusky, the 41-year old son of disgraced Penn State assistant coach Jerry Sandusky, and charged him with 14 counts of sexual offenses involving children.

    Among the charges Jeffrey Sandusky is facing are criminal solicitation and corruption of minors, according to the Associated Press, which reports his bail has been set at $200,000.

    According to to WKRN, police began investigating Sandusky in November 2016 after a child of a mother with whom Sandusky was dating and living, claimed that he had received explicit text messages asking for naked photographs. The child reportedly informed his father, who passed the claims to the police.

    Sandusky was arraigned in Pennsylvania court on Monday afternoon and been prohibited from contact with any minors

  64. 64.

    rikyrah

    West Wing Reports Verified account
    ‏@WestWingReport

    When on the road, a SCIF (Sensitive Compartmented Information Facility) is used to discuss security issues; Trump did not (WH File Photo)

  67. 67.

    Kay

    I want one of the DNC candidates to propose no more television advertising. Media hates you. Stop pouring ad money into their outlets. Cut the cord. Do something worthwhile with the money. Take a risk, free up all that money and see if we can find something creative to do with it, like hiring average human beings to work on these campaigns and paying them a living wage. Knocking on doors isn’t rocket science. How many organizers could Clinton have hired with ONE of those media buys? My God, she could pay them 50k for 9 months work. They’d be lining up in Cleveland.

    The funds we donate are spent poorly. They have to rethink how they do business. Their business model doesn’t even align with their stated principles. Bernie raised all that money from small donors and then sent it directly to the same media companies who made him out to be a clown and gave Trump billions in free air time. Why do we keep doing this? It’s insane. Don’t look at where it’s raised. Look at where it’s SPENT. What are they BUYING? They get no value. They get NEGATIVE value.

  69. 69.

    realbtl

    @Desmo: Calling in from Montana to say I’d rather see Denise Juneau give it another shot. Experience and a fair amount of name recognition.

  70. 70.

    Ceci n est pas mon nym

    @rikyrah: whites 53%

    After all the appalling screw ups and criminal activity of the last few weeks, he STILL can get a majority of whites (I’m one, more or less)?!?

    I was beginning to feel a groundswell of optimism for the soul of this country, but now I’m depressed again.

  71. 71.

    rikyrah

    Bradd Jaffy Verified account
    ‏@BraddJaffy

    Rep. Chris Collins (R-NY)—Trump has “absolute powers” to secure borders & decide who comes into the country “& that is not to be questioned”

  73. 73.

    Roger Moore

    @?BillinGlendaleCA:

    Schiff’s my Congresscritter.

    He used to be mine until post-2010 census redistricting. He’s a great example of why it’s a good idea to support Blue Dogs. When he was first elected (defeating the vile Jim Rogan), he was a member of the Blue Dog caucus and voted like it. But he’s gradually drifted left over time to the point that he’s now the kind of representative that Juicers brag about instead of complaining about.

  76. 76.

    Roger Moore

    @efgoldman:

    Seriously, at one time the national news would do a major segment on houses washing down the hills. This year, barely a squib. Is it so routine now? Or have most of the recent build been made to withstand it?

    I think they’re a lot stricter about where and how they let people build. Also, Southern California hasn’t been hit nearly as hard as Northern California has. We’ve had a few days of heavy rain, but there hasn’t been a really destructive sustained deluge. For the most part, the rain has slacked right about the time the ground was getting completely saturated, and waited long enough before starting up again to give the last batch time to soak in. It’s been almost ideal for reducing drought with a minimum of damage. Knock on wood.

  77. 77.

    Kay

    @rikyrah:

    So much for due process and equal protection, not to mention judicial review and Congress itself.

    “Absolute power”- and what a great leader they chose to give that to! They know this makes them irrelevant, right? We don’t need Congress at all if Herr Trump is running everything. They can go home.

  78. 78.

    socraticsilence

    @? Martin:

    This is entirely why Zeinke might be the last guy confirmed– to push the 90 day special election clock back far enough to have both major Universities be done for the Summer.

  80. 80.

    rikyrah

    @Patricia Kayden:

    Surprised that 11% of Blacks approve of anything Trump is doing. That will probably change when Sessions gets around to seriously oppressing the vote and designating BLM as a terrorist group.

    We’ve had these slave catchers since slavery. They are our roaches.

  82. 82.

    Kay

    MCCAIN on that Mar-a-Lago photo? “I would suggest that the president get a briefing on the handling of classified information.”

    Boy Donald Trump sure is getting completely different treatment on this from media and Republicans in Congress and federal law enforcement than Hillary Clinton did. It’s like a different country. This was the single biggest issue in the 2016 campaign based on coverage of the emails. Now it’s just a gentle suggestion?

    I think the most disturbing aspect to me is what appears to be the complete capture of federal law enforcement. That should fucking terrify people.

  83. 83.

    rikyrah

    Nancy Pelosi Verified account
    ‏@NancyPelosi

    There’s no excuse for letting an international crisis play out in front of a bunch of country club members like dinner theater. #FireFlynn

  84. 84.

    BCHS Class of 1980

    @Patricia Kayden: John Cole could answer this as well, but the WV GOP is so gleefully evil and stupid that Manchin is still trying to get separation. He is probably still feeling out how Trump will play in WV in 2018 before switching.

  86. 86.

    efgoldman

    @Patricia Kayden:

    It seems as if Manchin is always the sole Democrat voting with Republicans. I still don’t know why he hasn’t flipped over.

    Because he still votes with the Dems 60+% of the time, especially on legislation.
    These confirmation votes (at least so far) haven’t made any difference. They were going to be confirmed anyway. It’s like SuzieQ Creamcheese voting against DeVos – she won anyway, it was a “free” vote for the folks back home.

  87. 87.

    Temporarily Max McGee (Until Death!)

    @Shalimar:

    When someone’s depressing the vote? Yeah, because they sure aren’t doing anything to make a wider tent.

  88. 88.

    Calouste

    @Kay:

    Bernie raised all that money from small donors and then sent it directly to the same media companies who made him out to be a clown and gave Trump billions in free air time. Why do we keep doing this? It’s insane. Don’t look at where it’s raised. Look at where it’s SPENT. What are they BUYING? They get no value. They get NEGATIVE value.

    A 15% cut of all the ad buys (standard tariff, more or less) to the company that bought the ads on behalf of the Wilmer campaign that was owned by a few people connected to the Wilmer campaign.

    That was the value.

  90. 90.

    cain

    @Kay:

    Anyone who still believes this isn’t a coordinated attack on voting rights is a moron. Democrats will have had 2 years of daily statements from the whole Trump team promising to suppress voting and 46 bills.

    I called this some weeks back. I am not suprised.. republicans are going to try to hold on to their power as tight as they can. We will need to fight these bills.. but more than that we need to take Secretary of State and others.

    Republicans tried to pull that voter fraud shit here in Oregon and it was smacked down so hard you can hear the thunder across the state!

  92. 92.

    efgoldman

    @Scamp Dog:

    Hey, if you can find a link to it, could post it for us?

    Looks like, unlike CBS (which we usually watch), NBC doesn’t post the stories right away.

  95. 95.

    grandpa john

    @Ceci n est pas mon nym: That would actually depend on the regional breakdown of numbers of different party preference polled. A larger number from the South for example would give higher numbers for trump

  96. 96.

    Temporarily Max McGee (Until Death!)

    @Shalimar:

    Fuck that shit. Mix is forever pissing and moaning about Democrats who don’t pass his purity tests. If there’s anyone who wants to limit the size of the tent, it’s him.

    As the situation stands, opining over the cringe-worthiness of any candidate who opposes President Disaster is unwise. There’s absolutely no good reason to bitch about the probable candidates, and more than a handful of reasons not to bring it up.

  97. 97.

    PsiFighter37

    Steve Bullock (incumbent governor) won reelection in 2016 by a wider margin than he did in 2012.

    Democrats can definitely win statewide in Montana – they just need to pay attention to it. Obama came really close in 2008 because he invested during the primary. Combined with the shitshow that was the financial meltdown in 2008, he probably would have won against any of the GOP clowns running today.

    I feel very confident that the Democrats can win this race if they a) select the right candidate, b) speak to the needs of the people in that particular part of the country, and c) hang Trump around the neck of every goddamn Republican running anywhere. I don’t think Trump’s support is all that solid in some of these places he ran up big margins (outside of the Deep South).

  98. 98.

    randy khan

    @Kay:

    Sophisticated media buyers don’t purchase time from the networks – they purchase from local stations and local cable operators. It’s much more efficient and does not put any money into the hands of the networks (or at least not directly – if a station or cable system is under common ownership with the network, then obviously it helps the general bottom line).

  99. 99.

    efgoldman

    @randy khan:

    Sophisticated media buyers don’t purchase time from the networks

    But the buyers (in this case Wilmer’s two gonnef campaign managers) get the placement commission, right?

  101. 101.

    Gretchen

    @Raoul: Pompeo’s seat is definitely winnable. Dems here in Kansas were already fired up before the election because Brownback has made such a mess of things and is going after the sacred cow of public school funding. A bunch of Brownback allies were booted out in November and replaced with moderates. I got calls and visits about statehouse elections for the first time ever. The rest of the country is where Kansas was 6 months ago.

  102. 102.

    burnspbesq

    a Blue Dog or whatever new word we will invent for a Democrat with a few views that make some of us cringe.

    The Manchinian Cndidate?

  103. 103.

    burnspbesq

    @efgoldman:

    Tons of RWNJs, even some who passed the bar, can’t read the constitution.

    You only need to know actual Con Law for two days (worst case, three) in order to pass the bar. Then, if you’re so inclined, you can get falling down drunk, purge all that knowledge, and go back to being blissfully ignorant.

  104. 104.

    mskitty

    Although there’s an awful lot of interest in Con Law going around lately … Article II Sec. 3, the 25th Amendment …

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