Montana will probably have a special election if (not a big if) the Senate confirms current officeholder Ryan Zinke as Secretary of the Interior. This is a winnable seat, and if not winnable, it can be a non-embarrassment.
Trump destroyed Hillary in Montana in 2016 but McCain won by a mere two points in 2008. Jon Tester still holds a seat in the state. A special election campaign where a good candidate (say, Brian Schweitzer-yeah, I know) makes a good run is, worst case, prep for Tester’s steel cage death match in 2018. This race will also be a test run for engagement and turnout strategies for 2018.
Look, in a red state like this, we’re going to get a Blue Dog or whatever new word we will invent for a Democrat with a few views that make some of us cringe. In the House, all that matters is that he or she votes with Democrats when it counts.