To Steal the Sky is the late 80s HBO docudrama about Israel’s Operation Diamond that resulted in the theft of an Iraqi MiG 21 by Iraqi fighter pilot Munir Redfa. At the 52 minute mark, Ben Cross playing Redfa, stands up to leave the room where he’s meeting with Israeli intelligence officers and walks past a map on the wall next to the door with magnetic backed fighter jet miniatures in Jordan, Syria, and Iraq facing towards Israel. He stops, moves the jets into Israel, points them out towards Jordan, Syria, and Iraq, and states: “This is how you see the world. This is how we we see it!”
The discussion report from the just concluded Munich Security Conference is a report entitled Munich Security Report 2017: Post-Truth, Post-West, Post-Order? The report is intended to set the terms for discussion at the conference (h/t: Robin Wright via Digby). Interestingly Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s remarks at this year’s Munich Security Conference provocatively mirrored the reports title:
Russia’s foreign minister has called for a “post-West world order” while addressing global leaders at an international security conference.
Sergey Lavrov accused Nato of being a Cold War institution and accused its “expansion” of sparking unprecedented tensions in Europe as both sides expand military deployments and drills.
He said he hoped “responsible leaders” will choose to create a “just world order – if you want you can call it a post-West world order”.
The foreword to the discussion report, written by German Ambassador Wolfgang Ischinger, the conference chair, states:
The international security environment is arguably more volatile today than at any point since World War II. Some of the most fundamental pillars of the West and of the liberal international order are weakening. Adversaries of open societies are on the offensive. Liberal democracies have proven to be vulnerable to disinformation campaigns in post-truth international politics. Citizens of democracies believe less and less that their systems are able to deliver positive outcomes for them and increasingly favor national solutions and closed borders over globalism and openness. Illiberal regimes, on the other hand, seem to be on solid footing and act with assertiveness, while the willingness and ability of Western democracies to shape international affairs and to defend the rules-based liberal order are declining. The United States might move from being a provider of public goods and international security to pursuing a more unilateralist, maybe even nationalistic foreign policy. We may, then, be on the brink of a post-Western age, one in which non-Western actors are shaping international affairs, often in parallel or even to the detriment of precisely those multilateral frameworks that have formed the bedrock of the liberal international order since 1945. Are we entering a post-order world? How this question will be answered in the years to come will depend on all of us.
Ambassador Ischinger provides additional context in the video trailer for the conference:
I want to reemphasize this sentence from Ambassador Ischinger’s foreword:
The United States might move from being a provider of public goods and international security to pursuing a more unilateralist, maybe even nationalistic foreign policy. We may, then, be on the brink of a post-Western age, one in which non-Western actors are shaping international affairs, often in parallel or even to the detriment of precisely those multilateral frameworks that have formed the bedrock of the liberal international order since 1945.
The United states has long viewed itself as one of, if not the primary architect of the post WW II international order and global system, as well as its defender. While many Americans, including American leaders, still do as evidenced by both the Vice President’s and Defense Secretary Mattis’s statements at the conference in regards to the importance of NATO and American intention to honor our commitments, we have reached the point where how we see ourselves and our intentions, warts and all, is increasingly at odds with how our allies and partners see the US and its intentions. We’ve reached the point where Cross’s statement, in his portrayal of Captain Redfa, rings more and more true: “This is How You See the World. This is How We See It!”
WereBear
I date our decline from Ronald Reagan; we stopped finding vaccines for polio and sending men to the moon. It was a constant cutting down on all the things we could do to be great.
John S.
Ben Cross, not Ben Kingsley.
JMG
It ought to reassure everyone when Germany decides it must expand its military and develop nuclear weapons to protect itself from a new form of encirclement. I think any country with the economic and technical ability to do so that doesn’t try to create nuclear weapons and the ability to deliver them to US soil in the age of Trump is not protecting itself.
Baud
We obviously have a lot of domestic crap to fix. A little retrenchment might not be the worst thing. We’ll lose some status, but that seems inevitable now.
PeakVT
I’ve long been sympathetic to the idea that NATO has a lot of free-riders in it. But the way Trumpolini is trying to solve that problem will almost certainly be counterproductive – and the blowback will to be concentrated in places far from Drumpf Tower.
schrodingers_cat
@Baud: What do you think the election in November has done?
Felonius Monk
It sounds like this means, to paraphrase our current not-President, “America Ain’t Going to be Great Again”.
schrodingers_cat
@WereBear: I thought it was immigrant Asian shopkeepers from corrupt polities who were responsible.
Baud
@schrodingers_cat: Right. I thought it was clear that that’s what I was alluding to.
germy
@WereBear:
I always thought it was somewhat unamerican to run for president on the “government is the problem” platform. I saw it as a hostile takeover of our country.
Gin & Tonic
I hesitate to point this out for fear of being banned as a grammar pedant, but since you do it twice, it’s not a typo, and it is common elsewhere. A “foreword” is not a “forward.”
Mike in NC
Trump is so ignorant of history — and everything else — no doubt he never thought his “America First” agenda ironically recalled a time when there were a bunch of noisy isolationists and Nazi-sympathizers trying to set policy.
WereBear
I actually don’t see it that way.
WWI-era European empires lost their status when they lost their colonies; which was deserved, since they were exploitative of the people who already lived there.
We don’t have to be the world’s policeman; we don’t have to have military bases all over the world; we don’t have to support a bloated and psychopathic cloud cover of super-rich skimming the cream off everyone’s milk.
The US has lots of natural resources, plenty of room, and considerable talent yet to be unleashed. We could be “great” again; if we do what we did after WWII, and invested in ourselves.
schrodingers_cat
@Baud: What you were alluding to is not the distant future but here and now. I sometimes check Indian newspapers, these days they are either scared out of their minds or pointing and laughing at the United States. Envy of the world to global crazypants.
Baud
@schrodingers_cat: Balloon Juice feels the same way.
Adam L Silverman
@John S.: Fine, be that way. I’ll change it.
Mnemosyne
@WereBear:
Well, yes and no — in those post-war years, the US spent a lot of money and political capital helping our allies and select adversaries (Japan and West Germany) get rebuilt and back on their feet. We don’t have to be isolationists in order to spend money on ourselves.
My modest proposal is that we not only raise taxes, we bring back tax shelters. There was a lot of infrastructure that got built because rich people and corporations wanted a nice tax write-off. Let’s bring those back.
Baud
@Mnemosyne: The higher taxes would piss off the right and the tax shelter would piss off the left.
Spanky
@schrodingers_cat:
Ha ha! Silly Indians! Here in America we can do both at the same time!
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: Thanks for catching it. 3 hours of sleep last night. Don’t ask…
schrodingers_cat
@Mnemosyne: Smoot-Hawley tariffs and restrictionist immigration policies of the 20s ended that decade in Great Depression. Isolationist policies make little economic sense.
Baud
@Adam L Silverman: What were you doing?
schrodingers_cat
@Adam L Silverman: I hope it was exciting, whatever it was!
aimai
@WereBear: That’s a misunderstanding of what we invested in after WWII. We benefitted from the fact that every other industrialized country was in a shambles after being blown up. We sold tons of stuff, and tons of expertise, to those countries and found markets for our goods and services overseas. We benefitted enormously from having those markets. We didn’t do for ourselves as much as we were able to sell enough to others to have a good jobs and tax base.
Spanky
@Baud: If you weren’t going to ask, I sure was.
WereBear
@Mnemosyne: I got no problem rebuilding our allies: that was both humane and important.
And of course it’s complicated. I’m just noticing how very little the Republican plan of governance actually does. It’s just basic “steal money” and another multi-million dollar penthouse is not the kind of economic growth we need.
We’ve suffered from minimal investment in our own country for decades now. It shows.
Adam L Silverman
@Baud: Experiencing technical difficulties.
WereBear
@aimai: I’m talking about the GI Bill, the Interstate system, investment in sciences, the incredible benefits of all the technology we developed to go to the moon that was a boon to medicine and many other fields.
We soooooo don’t do that anymore.
Davis X. Machina
By which he doubtless means NATO, the UN, the EU, etc, etc.
The Ambassador says this like it’s a bad thing.
The important thing is that the American hegemony is doomed.
It would be best if it were replaced by no alternative hegemon.
But it’s ok too, if Putin’s Russia steps up.
Because, hey, at least it’s not America.
When you’re up against
the Focus of Evil I This, The Modern WorldUS imperialism, you can’t be fastidious in your choice of allies. Russia will do. China, come to it, will do.(This is more or less what I’ve heard from the people l a year or so ago who who couldn’t understand why the Ukrainians don’t just shut up, be grateful, and let Putin rescue them from us.)
Felonius Monk
@WereBear:
I don’t disagree with you. I was trying to interject some humor, but it was a little too flippant.
OT, since we reside in the same congressional district. Has Elise scheduled any townhalls?
Adam L Silverman
@schrodingers_cat: If being waterboarded is your idea of exciting, then sure. My CPAP had, unbeknownst to me, built up some condensation in the tubing. Ever tried to sleep when you’ve got a system pushing small droplets of water very quickly into your airway? Very unpleasant. This required that I turn the system off and clean everything out and then let it air dry. By the time my gear – tubing and nose mask – were dry enough to use it was 7:30 AM.
For those wondering: I have congenital apnea. I have a very mild case, but the CPAP means I don’t have to worry about if I’m going to wake up the next morning. Usually, as when it isn’t trying to drown me.
Omnes Omnibus
@WereBear: We don’t have to disengage from the world to do that. We, as a nation, need to decide that we deserve good stuff.
Mnemosyne
@Baud:
See! Everyone would be equally unhappy! I’m a genius! ?
Seriously, though, we need more and better places for people to stash their money than the stock market, and incentives for them to put it there. We can call them something other than “tax shelters,” but we desperately need something along those lines to get rich people to stop accumulating so much money that they buy presidential campaigns. Trump won because of the Mercers while the rest of us were watching out for the Kochs to do something.
JMG
The idea that old, rich, white America can withdraw from a young, not so rich and not so white world without said world uniting to fix our wagon is beyond stupid. Naturally, it’s now Trump doctrine. What’s our default position? “Well if things get too bad, we can always incinerate the planet”?
schrodingers_cat
@Adam L Silverman: I was alluding to a tryst of a romantic nature.
I hope your machine is all fixed up and you don’t have to experience that again.
amk
@Adam L Silverman: you sound robotic.
Felonius Monk
@Baud:
Well, at least it’s a real both sides.
Sunny Raines
@WereBear: I would concur with your last sentence except the “to be great” part. The US under republican harpy rule does nothing – period. We don’t even fix our bridges, sewers, and water supply. Republicans are 100% about doing nothing as a nation and 100% about bleeding the people to enrich themselves and cronies. Even their military adventurism is about enriching the rich. Republicans, starting with reagan and since are the enemies of the people – time to lose the red.
WereBear
@Felonius Monk: Not to my knowledge. But our local paper frontpaged her Facebook whining about how her staff is being harassed.
I have made lots of calls to all kinds of government offices lately, and her staff were the most indifferent and least professional of any I have encountered.
So there we are.
Adam L Silverman
@schrodingers_cat: This is only the second time this has happened. Fortunately.
Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes
@Baud:
Yeah, but our betters will simply help themselves to the public purse while calling us names for not being grateful for their pillaging without doing anything for public benefit.
Steve in the ATL
I like this better than the Battlestar Galactica thread
WereBear
To be clear, I didn’t say anything about isolationism. I was pointing out we spend so much of our money on crap, when we could be investing it in good things.
We wouldn’t enrich so many of our Trump class… but I do think that’s a good thing.
Spanky
@WereBear: All of those -ALL of those – were a response to the Cold War.
germy
@Adam L Silverman: I had a neighbor who had to knit a cozy for her CPAP tubing, because her cat would scratch holes into it.
Felonius Monk
@WereBear:
Boss sets the example.
Baud
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes: They will try. Given the fight on our hands, foreign affairs might be a distraction. But we only have so much control over the course of events so who knows?
Mnemosyne
@JMG:
I can’t remember who it was, but somebody here pointed out that the white supremacists like Bannon have deluded themselves into thinking that the US would have done even better in science and business in the last 30 or so years if we hadn’t let all of those üntermenschen participate. All we have to do is cut out all of the non-whites and the US will rule again!
Because it’s a counterfactual, there’s no way to directly prove them wrong. Remember, these are the people who live in a mental universe where Barack Obama was a mediocre black man who was precariously propped up by all of the smarter white people around him. That’s why they thought Trump would be a great president — if a black man could do it, it must not be that hard!
Seth Owen
@Davis X. Machina: Really?
I’m sorry, but several thousand years of history suggest being a ‘former’ hegemony is no piece of cake. Just ask China how much it enjoyed the last few centuries. Britain was lucky it was able to hand the chore off to us.
Yes, being a hegemony has its drawbacks, but as I don’t see an acceptable alternative on the horizon, I’d just as soon put off the Day of reckoning another generation or two. Maybe by mid-century Europe will have its act together, China will be more liberal or perhaps Brazil will finally fulfill its potential.
Lyrebird
@germy: Yeah, I was a bit young at that point, but I wholly agree now. Did you ever see that silly video, “Somalia – Libertarian Paradise” ?
Wish certain members of the Repub. administration & majority leaders in congress could take a long visit and revel in the regulation-free and untouched-by-civil-servants vibe…
Mnemosyne
@Seth Owen:
Always adjust your snark meter before reading any of Davis X. Machina’s comments. His snark is very, very subtle.
philadelphialawyer
I don’t see the end of Western domination as the end of the world. Also, the post war order does not depend on Western domination. The USA, acting on its own and as leader of the West, is, and has been, the primary rogue State, from 1945 to today. While at the same time being the primary beneficiary of the very international order that it goes rogue from. The USA created the post war order, but has no qualms about blasting its norms, particularly that of no war unless in self defense or in pursuit of a UNSC resolution, over and over and over again. Russia is no saint either, but Russia, at least post USSR, is a regional actor, at most. China is actually the most rules bound, rules following of the three superpowers. It almost never uses its UNSC veto power, and has not fought any kind of war since nineteen seventy nine. The USA is literally all over the map, insisting on its primacy in every corner of the globe, and in outer space, and in cyber space, from now until the end of time.
I favor a massive climbdown from the USA’s ridiculous aggressive position throughout the world. Of course, Trump is not the president to do it. It should be done gradually, and with due regard to process, and consultation with allies, and so on. But it should be done.
The international order does not depend on US or Western “leadership.” It is actually a more or less self running system, where all three superpowers, plus the other two UNSC permanent members, plus the other nuclear powers, and the EU, and other actors (Japan, the Arab League, etc) all more or less restrain each other, and prevent another general war. We don’t US meddling in Central Asia or sub Saharan Africa. We don’t need the US trying to thread the needle in Syria between ISIS and Assad. We don’t need the US taking down Saddam and Kaddafi and having no clue what to put in their places. We don’t need the US playing power broker in the Balkans.
The US can, slowly, deliberately, but surely, pack up and go home. Stop fluffing Israel. Stop playing kingmaker and breaker in the Arab world. And then, eventually, get out of Europe and East Asia too. The world doesn’t fucking need us. We are not so smart, so wise, so selfless, and so good that it is somehow our job and responsibility to run the rest of the world. Civilization started ten thousand years ago. We have been around for one quarter of one tenth of that time. A little less hubris, pride and chutzpah. A little more respect for international law and for the international order that we set up, and that benefits us more than anyone else.
Lyrebird
@Adam L Silverman: Sorry you had such an unpleasant equipment hassle, yuck-o!
And if compliments from the peanut gallery are nice, here goes – nice job breaking up and breaking down your points on this post for distractable readers!
Davis X. Machina
@Mnemosyne: And in this case, lifted more or less intact from The Nation…
Chet Murthy
@Mnemosyne: I’m not disagreeing with you regarding the many good things that the rich funded, b/c they didn’t want to pay taxes, but it wasn’t so much due to “tax shelters” as, well, steeply progressive income tax rates.
I’ve read a number of respectable economists point out the strong case that “steeply progressive income tax” produces “greater investment”. In short, a firm has a choice between rewarding its managerial caste, or investing. If the payoff to the managerial caste is sufficiently low (b/c high taxes) then the firm can choose to invest instead. And of course, the same thing held for charitable giving.
schrodingers_cat
Can we stop pretending that Republicans have been bad only since the reign of Tax Cut Jesus, Reagan.
Smoot-Hawley and Johnson-Reed. All Republicans. It was the Jews and the Chinese then, its Muslims and Mexicans now. Yep let’s bring back the policies that lead to the Great Depression and WW2. What could go wrong?
schrodingers_cat
@Davis X. Machina: The smug stupid of people spouting neo-liberal corporatist is something to behold. T voters have nothing on them.
liberal
You mean, like when we murdered hundreds of thousands of people in Iraq and made the Middle East much more unstable than it already was?
LOL. The stupid, it burns.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud: Sounds like the perfect plan then.
Mike J
Hey Adam, what’s your take on the people named for the possible head of NSC? Odierno, McMaster, Kellogg. I think we all know about Bolton.
Lyrebird
@Omnes Omnibus: Agreed.
Totally irrelevant and possibly pathetic point, mentioned in hopes that it makes you laugh: I found that old Somali PSA video thing all by myself, without having to rely on your knowledge of omnes videoii (sorry I never took Latin!), and now I’m all foolishly proud of myself.
Adam L Silverman
@Lyrebird: You’re welcome. Though I’m not sure I’m awake enough to fully understand the compliment.
liberal
@Mnemosyne:
You’re high on crack. Infrastructure that got built because of tax write-offs?
efgoldman
@Omnes Omnibus:
Of course we do, as long as we don’t have to share with those people.
liberal
@schrodingers_cat:
Nope.
Omnes Omnibus
@efgoldman: Aye, there’s the rub.
Chet Murthy
@Mnemosyne: Not to be a one-note , but
*steeply progressive taxation*.
Davis X. Machina
@Chet Murthy:A moderate degree of inflation will un-stuff mattresses as well.
efgoldman
@Sunny Raines:
It’s like they don’t drink the same water, breathe the same air, drive on the same roads….
Back when LA and Pittsburgh were a smoggy mess, didn’t they live in the same valleys?
schrodingers_cat
@liberal: I didn’t say they caused it. There were many factors but restrictionist trade policies made the Depression worse. Specifically the trade wars resulting from Smoot Hawley did not help matters.
NotMax
Spasmodic and precipitate aberration does not an era make.
Adam L Silverman
@Mike J: My understanding is that the four names on the short list are GEN (ret) Alexander, former head of the NSA. Ambassador Bolton, who you don’t want to talk about. LTG Caslen, currently the Superintendent of the US Military Academy – West Point. And LTG McMaster, currently the Deputy Commanding General US Army Training and Doctrine Command/Director of the Army Capability Integration Center (ARCIC).
I do not know GEN Alexander. I know LTG Caslen, have been on videoteleconferences with him when he was the Combined Arms Center Commander. I have a very limited acquaintance with LTG McMaster. All three of these gentlemen know what the National Security Council is actually supposed to be used for and what a functioning Interagency process looks like, as well as what a National Security Advisor should do. I would expect that the same issues that prevented VADM Harward from accepting would also be in play here. Each of these guys would want to clean house, bring their own people in from head to toe, establish a proper Interagency process including removing the political types from both the Principles and Deputies Committees, and want a free hand to run the NSC and the Interagency process properly as an honest broker between the various agencies and departments. I expect that the same pushback received by VADM Harward will come into play here. I have no idea if any of these concerns would be deal breakers for Ambassador Bolton. I also think he’s the least qualified of the four for this position.
Finally, you mentioned GEN (ret) Odierno. I have met GEN Odierno, would expect he’d have the same list of requirements (demands) as VADM Harward, and that not getting guarantees that they would be agreed to and that agreement would be adhered to, would be a deal breaker here too.
Baud
@Davis X. Machina: We might get that after Trump replaces Yellen.
Gin & Tonic
@Davis X. Machina:
I know you know this, but it doesn’t hurt to remind the audience that three years ago today nearly 100 Ukrainians gave their lives for the cause of having their country oriented more toward the West, that West which, in the West, doesn’t seem to give much of a shit about the West. In the intervening years somewhere around 10k people have been killed trying to rid their country of a foreign aggressor. I’m sure their families will join philadelphialawyer in saying, hey, no biggie if America doesn’t give a shit anymore. I mean, it’s not as if political freedom and self-determination are all that important these days, amirite?
Omnes Omnibus
@Adam L Silverman: As I have mentioned, I knew McMaster when he was a CPT and I was a 1LT. He was marked for big things even then. I tend to hope he either is not offered the job or turns it down.
schrodingers_cat
Point to note, how leftier than thou commenters agree with T voters, from Russian interference to trade wars. I find that fascinating.
MomSense
So my dear friend who has breast cancer wants her family to visit while she still feels well enough to see them. Even though they are not living in countries that are part of the stated travel ban, they are still afraid to visit.
MomSense
@schrodingers_cat:
I find it horrifying.
Baud
@Omnes Omnibus: I think he’ll get the offer because Trump will think he has the coolest name.
Baud
@MomSense: Very sorry for your friend.
Adam L Silverman
@Omnes Omnibus: I remember. I don’t really see what the upside in taking it is for him. I’m pretty sure LTG Caslen retires from the Point – I don’t know of too many Superintendents that went on to a higher billet. But my understanding is that LTG McMaster still has a way to go, including a 3 star operational command – either Corps, Service Component Command, or both.
schrodingers_cat
@MomSense: I was being sarcastic.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud: Only if Dolt45 sees something good about him on “the shows”, this seems to be the inputs to all his decision making.
Adam L Silverman
@Baud: LTG McMaster is an exceedingly unconventional, though still strategic, thinker. He also is known for having a temper. But he’s smart. High speed, low drag. And his intelligence and how he uses it has scared the crap out of his peers at times. It was my understanding that he was held up getting his first star because of this.
Omnes Omnibus
@Adam L Silverman: Yes, he still has the ability to move up in the army.
@Adam L Silverman: Yes, he was passed over twice for O-7.
Cacti
Not surprisingly, the Russian definition of a more just and peaceful world order is one where everybody just lets Russia do what it wants to its neighbors.
Baud
@Adam L Silverman: But does he look the part?
MomSense
@schrodingers_cat:
I know. I’m just in an especially intolerant mood (not with you). Too much BS to deal with when the fascists are gaining.
sharl
@Adam L Silverman: Did you see this thing posted today by Jim Lobe, The Empty-Headedness of K.T. McFarland? Here’s a summary of the meeting which gave rise to this piece:
Given Lobe’s usual writing style – professional and respectful, even when in disagreement with a policy or person – it’s stunning to see him title a post like that. But when you read the content, which includes Lobe’s best efforts at transcribing relevant portions from the video content, you can see why.
J R in WV
@Gin & Tonic:
Oh, come on, you know we love grammar pedants here!!
Omnes Omnibus
@Baud: You tell us.
philadelphialawyer
@Gin & Tonic: Um, folks in the Ukraine “gave their lives” overthrowing a president elected in a process determined to be fair by Jimmy Carter, the UN, and, reluctantly, “the West” in general. Why the coupsters in Ukraine should be encouraged to do so by the US is beyond me. And, it seems to me, that Russian meddling notwithstanding, plenty of folks in Ukraine, on their own nickel, were, and are, not so crazy about the coup. So, yeah, shame on me, but I don’t think giving cookies to coupsters overthrowing legitimate governments, and in violation of all international norms and treaties, just so they can be our allies, when half of their countrymen, or more than half, actually, don’t want to, is so fucking virtuous.
Color revolutions do not equal political freedom and self determination. Just the opposite, actually.
Adam L Silverman
@Omnes Omnibus: The US Army: 242 years of tradition unimpeded by progress.
MomSense
@Baud:
Thanks. I really hate 45
Baud
@Omnes Omnibus: Hmmm. Not bad, but do we know how Trump feels about baldis? Can’t think of any in his inner circle.
Lyrebird
@Adam L Silverman: Yeah after I posted it I realized the wording is ambiguous. Also a little underslept, here.
No clue whether this merits explaining, but hey — given your education, I know you know how to skim or just scroll on.
IIRC some commenters have chided you bc you have such a long quote featured, or such a long bit of unbroken text all included on the front page, or you explained something too thoroughly, something like that. As a fairly distractable person, I know I’m sometimes guilty of looking at longer Richard Mayhew or Kompromat posts, reading three words, thinking “oh gosh I’m glad he’s on that!” and scrolling through for a pet video. On this one you put in enough shiny bits and bolded sections for tired me to follow.
full disclosure: my job requires me to explain stuff to excess.
Baud
@MomSense: That’s because you have momsense.
schrodingers_cat
BiP seems to have become a lawyer in Philly now.
Adam L Silverman
@Baud: http://usacac.army.mil/sites/default/files/documents/cact/LtGenMcMasterBio.pdf
J R in WV
@Adam L Silverman:
Sounds like you need to keep some spare parts around.
I mean, that’s a mission-critical component of your life, right? Face-mask and tubing in sterile ziplocks, how much could that cost? Versus how much would it be worth>?!
efgoldman
@Adam L Silverman:
Which means he’ll probably be Citron Cancer’s choice, unless he just gives the job to Bannonazi, Millernazi, or Kellyanne Riefenstahl.
I figure, whatever our expectations are, he’ll exceed them on the downside.
Chet Murthy
[I sure think that Adam is more-qualified here. He’s been there, and clearly has the background and training to address this. But I’ll press on …]
I’m seeing two threads here:
(1) the US (as a global hegemon) has a global footprint, and it’s both wildly immoral (correct) and wildly expensive (also correct). And has no good attributes to be separated from the bad ones (IMHO incorrect).
(2) the US needs to invest more in .. the US, and this is in opposition to our international “committments” (in scare-quotes b/c of #1).
Setting aside #2, I’ve read a lot on LG&M and other foreign policy blogs, where it’s pointed out that one of the key ways in which adversaries attempt to constrain each other in times of peace (remembering Clausewitz) is by making clients of their adversaries’ neighbors. Hence, our client Iran. Hence, the USSR’s client Nicaragua (& Cuba). Hence our (so far successful) bringing the Baltics into NATO. And our work to bring Ukraine into the Western sphere of influence. These are all about constraining the Russian ability to project power. They have to pin down their forces to deal with their neighbors, so they can’t use them to project power everywhere else.
AND AND AND this has nothing to do with the literal evil that we project around the world. Look: we can believe that Russian influence in Nicaragua is a bad thing, without calling up Galtierei (Argentina) and ordering him to send a regiment of killers by our air transport to kill Nicaraguan nuns, ffs. We can believe that Saddam is a bad guy, without deciding to kick the entire Middle East over. We can decide that Iran is a regional adversary (something with which, at some level, I’m not quite convinced, but I can set that aside) without supporting KSA in a nutjob bombing campaign that can only make things worse.
–> so why do we get into those nutjob situations? B/c an empire has many power centers, and sometimes those power centers’ short-term interests conflict with the long-term interests of the metropole, eh?
OK. So there’s that. And then, the US imperial echelons are giant, full of inertia. I voted for Barack over Hillary in 08 specifically b/c I felt he was -less- in the pocket of the national security state, and hence would be less likely to get us into literally idiotic (and morally indefensible) wars. I think I made the right choice. Others may differ, b/c they want a Sir Galahad.
Ugh …. what am I heading for here? It’s this: It’s not about the US deciding to retreat from the world. It’s about good governance. the US -should- retreat from these committments that are literally counterproductive to our long-term interests.
–> simple example: every dollar spent on shoring up our clients in the middle east, needs to be matched with a dollar (or more) spent on alternative energy sources in the US
Which brings us back to Dampnut. Dampnut doesn’t understand any of this. And even if he mumbled the right words -today-, he’d be mumbling the opposite tomorrow. What’s worse, his advisors are incoherently going in all directions simultaneously.
-Nothing- of what he’s saying is sensible. Do you really think he’s going to retract his guarantees to KSA? Really? (Secy of State Tillerson on line 2) He’s going to kick over the good and useful parts of our hegemonic influence, while retaining the bad parts.
P.S. Notice that when I talked about the Baltics, or the Ukraine, I never mentioned anything about morality. I didn’t argue that our actions there were -morally- correct. I -only- argued that, to the extent that Russia is our geopolitical adversary (and honestly, anybody who doesn’t believe that is a fool (paging Jill Stein to the white courtesy phone)) our actions in Europe were ….. rational. But we all know that at least in Europe and the Far East (less so …. Park Chung Hee wants a word) they were on balance morally positive. So there’s that, too.
ETA: and like clockwork: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2017/02/20/1634207/-War-What-is-it-good-for-Absolutely-nothing
Idiocy. Sheer idiocy. Which is -different- from “rational though morally abhorrent” or even “morally abhorrent but with some measure of competence”. Just idiocy.
I recall several times during the administration of Our President Obama, that the message was “we have no idea whom we should support, so we’re gonna stay well away” (yes yes, except for various stuff coming from the CIA, but like I said, the imperial echelons have enormous inertia – no single administration is going to be able to stop ’em)
Gin & Tonic
@J R in WV: “We” do. Adam doesn’t.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud: He can always get a rug.
schrodingers_cat
@?BillinGlendaleCA: Bald is better than a toupe’.
Omnes Omnibus
@?BillinGlendaleCA: One doubts he would.
MomSense
@Adam L Silverman:
You are forbidden from letting that happen ever again. We are depending on you to worldsplain for us.
Glad you are ok and hope you can get some restorative sleep tonight.
Gin & Tonic
@philadelphialawyer: Um, it isn’t “the Ukraine”, just as it isn’t “the France.” That’s like saying “Democrat Party.”
In the most recent Presidential election, Petro Poroshenko received 55% of the votes in a field of 17 candidates, most pro-West. Since I actually do have a college degree in math, I can state with some confidence that that is not “more than half.”
cmorenc
@PeakVT:
The direct blowback may not be to Trump Tower, NYC itself, but the odds are better than not that there will be substantial tangible blowback against one or more Trump-affiliated/logoed properties around the world over the next four years. They are a tempting a target for some terrorist group to attack in some sort of dramatic way, and there’s no way to adequately protect them all, especially not at taxpayer expense.
Adam L Silverman
@sharl: I just read it. I’ve seen some of her TV commentary before. She’s not very bright, or if she is she’s doing a good job hiding it, and she’s neither well informed nor a strategic thinker. She exists in a world where the people that fund Frank Gaffney’s and others’ efforts to demonize Muslims create celebrity faux subject matter experts like her, inject them into the media, and thereby warp the strategic discussions on issues of importance.
Adam L Silverman
@J R in WV: I have a backup nose mask. I could not find the back up tubing and have ordered another one.
J R in WV
@efgoldman:
Naw, the Rich management folk lived at least one ridge over from the mills, and the smog was heavy, and stayed in the valleys. Pittsburgh has old rich neighborhoods on the ridge tops across the river from downtown. The old inclined cog railroads creep up the (V) steep hillside, up out of the steel mill smog.
There are little towns all around the big industrial cities where the rich folk lived away from the stench and noise of their sources of wealth.
The first time I drove into Pittsburgh was 1971, it was still a roaring steel city, and we drove in on a US highway with a mountain of slag on our left, with a railroad on top that dumped slag, glowing hot smoking slag down the hill towards the highway. At night! It was like being on Venus or Mercury, hot waves of molten slag, drooling down the hill.
I guess they didn’t roast passers-by too often, but I didn’t care for it at all. It was too much like the burning mountains of slate and coal waste around the mines of southern WV for me to like it. Smelled worse, a little, up in Pittsburgh, but only a little.
Omnes Omnibus
@PeakVT: @cmorenc: Who are those free riders?
Adam L Silverman
@efgoldman: I would expect to see, if this is drawn out, that Bannon pushes his own National Security expert (alt-National Security expert) Seb Gorka into the position. He has even less experience or expertise to run it. I think an additional issue for anyone under consideration is that Bannon is creating his own shadow NSC and Interagency with his White House Strategic Initiatives Group (SIG).
Lyrebird
@Adam L Silverman: Scary also that although some of her comments were woefully inadequate and not appropriate for the event, e.g.
…she sure seems a lot brighter than the fellow officially heading up this republican administration. GAAAAH!
When I first starting reading about the NatSec Advisor stuff, I thought wait, I’d love to have KT Tunstall on my staff, at least for music making…
Another Scott
@aimai: I used to think that too, but the numbers don’t actually seem to be there. And if one thinks about it a little more deeply, it makes sense – economies that have been destroyed didn’t have lots of money to buy imports from the USA. The Marshall Plan helped, of course, but that was mostly us paying ourselves and giving/lending them stuff.
FRED: Net Exports as a percentage of GDP only shows 4 years after 1945 with anomalously-high next exports as a percentage of GDP – 1946 (3.2%), 1947 (4.3%), 1948 (2.0%), 1949 (1.9%). Every year after that was at 1.0% or less.
The US’s post-war boom wasn’t built on exports.
If I had to guess (no time to check at the moment), it was pent-up demand after the Depression, the Cold War, demographic change (the start of the baby boom), the birth of suburbia, the GI Bill, and a mountain of technological change (communications, transportation, electronics, computers, etc., etc.).
Cheers,
Scott.
p.a.
@Adam L Silverman: my health ins used to cover a new cpap unit when needed, not any more. the only tech issue I have ever had is the on/off wearing out, so here’s a tip: I run mine through a power strip and leave the unit on, turning it on/off via the power strip switch. a lot cheaper to replace than a new cpap, and if the strip goes bad, just power the cpap directly that night until you get another power strip.
Omnes Omnibus
@p.a.: Jebus, how many people around here use them?
J R in WV
@Adam L Silverman:
I felt sure that was the case, but felt compelled to josh you just a little about it.
I often am lucky to get 3 hours sleep, I think it’s because I’m old and have accumulated things that keep one awake, like painful joints, etc. Not to mention all the terrible things hard to not think about in the dark late at night. We all share that supply of things to think about in the dark. Dammit!
Adam L Silverman
@Chet Murthy: What’s missing from all aspects of the discussion, as both Omnes and ef indicated, is that we’ve chosen to impoverish ourselves. We have the resources to both take care of ourselves at home and continue to be outward facing, active, engaged, and even expeditionary as necessary in foreign affairs. Unfortunately we’ve decided, or allowed the decision to be made for us, that any form of taxation and revenue in to the government isn’t just economically problematic, its morally evil. Its not that we’re out of Schlitz. Its that we’ve decided we will never produce Schlitz again and have convinced ourselves that the shortfall is completely out of our control, is in many ways ex machina or sui generis, and this is just the way things are. The reality is we can, with legislation, simply adjust the tax brackets and get rid of the carried interest exemption, etc.
Adam L Silverman
@MomSense: That’s the plan.
Adam L Silverman
@p.a.: Mine is plugged into a power strip and left on, as in powered. Have never had an issue. My insurance also covers one set of replacements a year, but given how cheaply I can get what I use at Amazon, I basically do it that way and just write it off my taxes. I also have a rechargeable battery backup for my unit that gives me six nights of power in case of a prolonged outage. Or one to two nights if I’m using the humidifier. I also have one of the automatic cleaners for mine because I like to use the humidifier on the lowest setting to keep from getting dried out sinuses.
Shalimar
@PeakVT: From what I gather, “free riders” in a NATO context doesn’t mean countries that don’t pay dues. It means countries that don’t contribute their share militarily to the common defense, i.e. spend at least 2% of their GDP on the military.
It seems like far more can go wrong than right if most of the countries in Europe doubled their military spending. I don’t like the U.S. putting pressure to do that. It will be bad enough when they start feeling the need to do it internally.
Omnes Omnibus
@Adam L Silverman: Harrumph!
Adam L Silverman
@J R in WV: Honestly, when I got the newest mask I may have pitched the backup hose. I’ll have a new one here by Tuesday thanks to Amazon Prime.
J R in WV
Years ago I saw a gadget for sale that looked s useful I bought several. Rechargeable air turbine blowers. You can blow dirt off a tool, get a fire going more quickly, or dry out a hose, for example, by putting a ton of air through it all at once. It moves a shit-ton of air, which amount is somewhat controllable. Great for lump charcoal fire starting!
Woot.com is where I got them, IIRC now years later, one gave it up not long ago, the other is still in it’s impenetrable plastic bubble pack. Very handy tool.
Chet Murthy
@Adam L Silverman: Adam, yes, I agree 100% with you. I was sticking only to the “foreign policy” issue, b/c … too much for a single comment. But yeah, there are so many excellent arguments for raising tax rates.
My favorite example is just to raise the income ceiling on FICA taxes (and set it as a percentage of labor share). Would “fix” whatever’s broken with Social Security forever and ever.
DAVID ANDERSON
@Lyrebird: no problem. Adam and I don’t write easy things
Omnes Omnibus
@DAVID ANDERSON: WHO ARE YOU AND WHAT HAVE YOU DONE WITH 1%-ER RICHARD MAYHEW??????
Adam L Silverman
@Chet Murthy: Exactly and it doesn’t have to be a huge increase on the top end. Does anyone really believe that really wealthy folks would stop working if the top bracket was at 39% or 42%? One of the silliest arguments I’ve ever seen.
Adam L Silverman
@DAVID ANDERSON: @Omnes Omnibus: And why is your name in all caps?
Omnes Omnibus
@Adam L Silverman: I find that worrisome as well.
@Adam L Silverman: There is a point where salary is just a way of keeping score.
Adam L Silverman
@Omnes Omnibus: To your second point: yes.
Omnes Omnibus
@Adam L Silverman: So, in my view, tax the fuck out of them. Details covered better by others.
Another Scott
@Omnes Omnibus: I’m all for a 70-90% top rate for income (earned and unearned). But doing it in a sensible way (say on income over $10M or $50M or some other really big number) means that there would be more “complexity” in the tax code and “everyone agrees” that the tax code is “too complex” now. Of course, average families who file a joint return and have 2.3 kids aren’t affected by the stuff that someone making $100M a year is worried about, so it’s a red-herring argument.
There’s too much savings in the world and not enough spending (too many real people can’t buy the things they need because they don’t have enough income, because the wealthy are sitting on too much of the liquidity in the economy). Substantially higher tax rates on the rich would do a lot to address that problem.
Cheers,
Scott.