Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Infrastructure week. at last.

Conservatism: there are some people the law protects but does not bind and others who the law binds but does not protect.

Pessimism assures that nothing of any importance will change.

Incompetence, fear, or corruption? why not all three?

Not all heroes wear capes.

The next time the wall street journal editorial board speaks the truth will be the first.

Red lights blinking on democracy’s dashboard

T R E 4 5 O N

I really should read my own blog.

Come on, man.

Republicans don’t want a speaker to lead them; they want a hostage.

Insiders who complain to politico: please report to the white house office of shut the fuck up.

Teach a man to fish, and he’ll sit in a boat all day drinking beer.

They’re not red states to be hated; they are voter suppression states to be fixed.

… pundit janitors mopping up after the GOP

And now I have baud making fun of me. this day can’t get worse.

Imperialist aggressors must be defeated, or the whole world loses.

Take hopelessness and turn it into resilience.

Wow, I can’t imagine what it was like to comment in morse code.

Too often we confuse noise with substance. too often we confuse setbacks with defeat.

The party of Reagan has become the party of Putin.

I’d try pessimism, but it probably wouldn’t work.

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Accountability, motherfuckers.

You are here: Home / Anderson On Health Insurance / And the canary just died

And the canary just died

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The First Congressional District in Virginia is represented by a long standing Republican, Rob Wittman. He easily won re-election in 2016 by twenty three points and Trump carried the district by 13 points. This is a district where the traditional threat to a Republican Representative is from their right flank.

Keep that in mind as we look below:

He is bailing.

This is good news for people who don’t want to throw twenty four million people off of their insurance in order to give a tax cut to people who don’t need one. Speaker Ryan has at most twenty three (currently he has 21 spare votes due to vacancies)) votes that he can afford to lose while still getting to 218. He has 23 Republicans who won in 2016 despite representing seats carried by Hillary Clinton. These are the first seats that fall in a Democratic wave if the Democratic base is pissed off. Their behavioral pattern will look a lot like Blue Dog Democrats in 2009-2010. Anything that passes the House needs could afford to have those twenty three most vulnerable Republicans defect by either voting no or finding a way to be outside of DC to not vote. At most one or two of these Representives would have to take a very hard vote that would probably cost them their seat. That is a vote that many Blue Dogs and New Dems took in 2010 and it cost them their seat.

The issue is if people like Rep. Wittman defect. A single defection can be replaced by another hard vote. But if there are a half dozen or a dozen defections from relatively safe Republican districts, then the willingness of marginal Republicans to take one for the team will decline dramatically as they will be looking out for themselves. It would be as if both Representatives from Philadelphia decided that they would not vote for the ACA and thus forcing a pair of Blue Dogs to take the hard vote.

We already know that AHCA was under threat of defections from both vulnerable Republicans and ideological maximalist Republicans. Now if mostly safe Republicans are bailing, there is great difficulty in Speaker Ryan assembling a coalition in the House. Which then leads to the following:

So our mission tomorrow is to call Congress. Demand that your Rep or your Senator will not cut Medicaid nor screw over the 50-64 year olds.

Reader Interactions

71Comments

  5. 5.

    scottinnj

    Since the GOP doesn’t care about deficits except when the Democrats are in charge, why can’t they just pass the tax cuts, leave ACA more or less intact (maybe take out one item coverage that relates to icky lady parts), declare Obamacare repealed and call it a day? I do think they want to take money away from the poors and the blahs but they care about lining their pockets more.

  6. 6.

    lollipopguild

    Reality SEEMS to be finally penetrating some very thick skulls. Needs a real vote on this to confirm skull penetration.

  7. 7.

    hovercraft

    Excellent sign, Issa said he was bailing earlier, if they start to line up like dominos then it will be a big victory. But like Baud, I need to see actual votes before I celebrate, these jackals are craven enough to claim they’re against it and then vote for it when it comes up. Liars each and every one of them.

  8. 8.

    Villago Delenda Est

    @Hunter Gathers: I suspect that it will be tougher to primary people like Wittman than the teabaggers think. In fact, I suspect the hard core teabaggers are going to have problems of their own with primary challenges.

  9. 9.

    David Anderson

    @Baud: Lower is better — 100% is the moment after Trump signs the Randian dream act.
    0% is the ACA or something like it muddles through until 1/21/21. I’m around 70% to 75% and have been since mid-January when it was obvious that the bum rush of reconciliation by February 1 would not happen.

  10. 10.

    efgoldman

    Sen Mike Lee on Mark Levin show predicts the Ryan plan will fail in Senate, probably in House too

    So Lee and Cotton, two of the craziest, rightiest, wingiest, nut-jobbyist of the RWNJs in the senate, said out loud that it won’t pass.
    Things are falling apart fast for Granny Starver and Kumquat Killer. I wonder if Granny Starver has the guts to pull it. If he doesn’t, the defeat will be humiliating. If he does, his kkkrazy kkkaukus will go after him the same way they croaked Weeping Cheetoh.

  14. 14.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    Dave Weigel‏Verified account @ daveweigel 3h3 hours ago
    Sen. Cassidy not impressed by cost savings seen by CBO: “Society is going to pay for health care whether it’s through insurance or not.”

    Sen. Perdue (R-GA), usually pretty supportive of Trump, says of CBO score that Rs should “slow down” and “get this right.”

  16. 16.

    Kelly

    @David Anderson: The overall Trump chaos has me around 50~60 on your scale. I figure there will be piecemeal ACA sabotage if the repeal bill fails. They can do plenty of harm at the margins, leave few fingerprints and claim Obamacare imploded on it’s own. The bright side is piecemeal sabotage will be easier to fix when we get control back.

  19. 19.

    Kathleen

    I have no doubt Wonk.Bot and the Rethugs will come out with new and improved “Freedom To Die” bill.

  20. 20.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @amk: he will, which will be a bit awkward when people point out that his HHS secretary hired the director of the CBO

    also, too, OT, but not by a lot

    Josh Barro‏Verified account
    Erica Werner @ ericawerner
    Ryan on Steve King: “I’d like to think he misspoke and it wasn’t really meant the way it sounds and hopefully he’s clarified that.”

    Josh Barro Retweeted Erica Werner
    Paul Ryan would also like to think his testicles aren’t stored in a jar in Trump Tower, but wishing does not make it so.

  21. 21.

    Kropadope

    @amk:

    has the twitler accused CBO as being the agents of Obama yet?

    The R party, by and large, has been denigrating the CBO for the whole past week.

  22. 22.

    Immanentize

    I have a 2018 ad all set:
    “How many of your family, friends and neighbors did Congressman _________ just vote to kick off of health insurance? 55,172 of your relatives, your neighbors; even your parents.”

    ETA that figure is 24 mil divided by the number of Reps. Let them argue it is only 50K

  23. 23.

    hitchhiker

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    Sen. Perdue (R-GA), usually pretty supportive of Bottom Blast, says of CBO score that Rs should “slow down” and “get this right.”

    That right there is the problem. There isn’t a better way, or at least not one that leaves the private insurers intact. He can slow down all he wants, but the OBVIOUS best course for them would be to actually work with Dems, spend a little jack to boost the subsidies, and move on to attempting to destroy whatever is next on their list.

  24. 24.

    Ken

    @efgoldman:

    If he does, his kkkrazy kkkaukus will go after him the same way they croaked Weeping Cheetoh.

    When is the next debt ceiling bill? Sometime in the next couple months, IIRC?

  26. 26.

    hovercraft

    @Hunter Gathers:
    Ryan, nothing is EVAH Twitler’s fault, he cannot fail, only be failed. Remember even his bankruptcies are triumphs over the suckers who invest in his projects, he always walks away unscathed, WINNER !!

  27. 27.

    artem1s

    @Hunter Gathers:

    Who will Trump blame? And how epic will it be?

    That is going to be an epic twitter rant for the ages. I’m betting he’ll rewind all his greatest melt downs about the EC vs popular vote, blame Obama for everything, ISIS, immigrants, John McCain, even Lindsey. then he’ll go after whoever he perceives is selling him out and dissing him the most. I’m thinking Priebus will be first on the block. then Spicer will have to bail because he can’t serve all his evil masters equally. Ryan is going to be getting pressure from both sides and especially the Freedum Caucus I’m thinking. He doesn’t have to worry about an election for awhile, but I’m going to enjoy watching all of zombies tear into him. I love it when they finally start eating their own.

  28. 28.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @amk: From Nov, 2015

    GOP dismisses CBO director, picks Republican stalwart as chief scorekeeper
    “He brings great experience,” Rep. Tom Price, Georgia Republican and House Budget Committee chairman, told The Washington Times. “He was in President Bush’s council of economic advisers, he worked for the Commerce Department, Treasury Department, served as the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is a huge organization that requires a great facility for not just dealing with the numbers, but also dealing with how to explain these sometimes difficult economic issues in ways that members of Congress are able to grasp, and sometimes that’s a challenge.”

  29. 29.

    smintheus

    Just sent this to Charlie Dent, PA-15:

    If you vote for this bill, or support it by failing to speak out, I will do everything in my power to see that you’re defeated for re-election. It’s so ghastly it perfectly represents your colleague’s decade-long quest to undermine a law that has helped tens of millions of ordinary Americans. Why in the world would the GOP make it a priority to strip life-saving health coverage from millions of people? It looks like it’s all about cutting taxes on the wealthy, nothing more or less than that.

  33. 33.

    efgoldman

    @Kropadope:

    The R party, by and large, has been denigrating the CBO

    I thought they put the fix in by requiring “dynamic scoring”, whatever the fuck that meant.

  34. 34.

    DesertFriar

    @amk:

    has the twitler accused CBO as being the agents of Obama yet?

    Well it does mean Clandestine Barack Obama

  35. 35.

    bearcalypse

    I am more worried about democrats voting for this so they can jerk off to their fantasies of bi-partisanship and NPR and the NYT cheering all the way.
    At least republicans can be relied on to be consistently cruel, self-serving and without empathy – until it happens to a family member.

  37. 37.

    hovercraft

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    Paul Ryan would also like to think his testicles aren’t stored in a jar in Trump Tower, but wishing does not make it so.

    Poor little Paulie, he’s getting the John Boehner treatment, his halo is really tarnished, he’s never had such bad press before. At the rate he’s going by the time Twitler leaves not only will Ryan be tainted for 2020, he may be on the Gingrich, Boehner, Cantor road to oblivion.
    A girl can dream.

  41. 41.

    p.a.

    The paradox: when AHCA goes down and the Rethugs resort to ACA death by a thousand cuts do they take a hit in the House? 46% of American voters in the 2016 Pres election were stupid/venal enough to vote for tRump. What % will see through their ‘we told you ACA was collapsing’ p.r. campaign?

  42. 42.

    hovercraft

    @efgoldman:
    Dynamic scoring is where you don’t use normal historical economic growth for the GDP, instead you use huuge growth numbers based on instituting GOP policies that will make us grow at developing nation growth rates. Twitler has spoken enviously of Jyna’s growth rate, dynamic scoring assumes those types of rates to make it appear that stuff is not deficit exploding.

  44. 44.

    efgoldman

    @bearcalypse:

    I am more worried about democrats voting for this

    You shouldn’t be. Not one single Dem vote, house or senate; not one.
    The way things are going, wouldn’t surprise me if Granny Starver ended up red-facedly pulling the bill without a vote.

  45. 45.

    Aleta

    I just don’t trust anything the Rs say. Their little duck feet are negotiating furiously below the surface.

  46. 46.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @p.a.: They have the advantages of incumbency and (probably) the demographics of off-year elections, but I think this debacle does make them more broadly seen as responsible for health care. It’ll be harder to blame Obama after a huge blow up like this. I think the Dems would pretty much have to run the table to take back the House, but it could happen. A lot of time and events between now and then. The economy could flourish or tank, Trump could implode or hold it together.

  47. 47.

    Kropadope

    @efgoldman:

    I thought they put the fix in by requiring “dynamic scoring”, whatever the fuck that meant.

    It means wishful thinking. David Anderson said in an earlier thread that this bill was not dynamically scored, however.

  50. 50.

    danielx

    @hovercraft:

    You wish Gingrich would disappear into oblivion. Unlike Cantor and Boehner, Newton Leroy has most assuredly not disappeared from Sunday morning gibberish-fests.

    The Gingrich Rules, courtesy of that wise man Driftglass:

    …an agreement that the moderator will never, ever ask the bomb-throwing, hate-mongering, race-baiting goon sitting directly across from them a single question about their bomb-throwing, hate-mongering or race-baiting activities. Instead they will be represented to the public merely as a Conservative commentator or talk radio host or pundit who, at worst, might be known for some “controversial” opinions, which the moderator will never bother to explicate.

  52. 52.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    Kristen Orthman‏ @ KristenOrthman 1h1 hour ago
    How bad are things for Paul Ryan? This is a Republican Congressman just now:
    Riley Snyder @ RileySnyder
    [email protected] MarkAmodeiNV2 “Quite frankly it looks right now that Nancy Pelosi was much more efficient” on health care bill process

    ETA: My recollection is that Nancy Pelosi spent most of her time waiting for Max Baucus to stop waiting for Chuck Grassley to invite him to go down to the Malt Shoppe

  55. 55.

    Pogonip

    @Ken: The debt ceiling is hit in March but various accounting tricks usually kick the can down the road to August or September.

  60. 60.

    Kelly

    @p.a.:

    The paradox: when AHCA goes down and the Rethugs resort to ACA death by a thousand cuts do they take a hit in the House?

    No. If the ACA prospers it’s because Republicans fixed it. If ACA falters it’s because Obamacare was imploding anyway.

  61. 61.

    hovercraft

    @danielx:
    Oh I know that he’s a fixture on TV, I meant his political career, I know he runs for “president” every four years now, but that’s a grift, not really realistic, though given Twitler, all bets are off. Remember when Cantor was going to be our first Jewish President? Ryan has been touted as the next big thing for so long, everyone assumed that he could survive anything, losing VP candidate no biggie, Speaker herding a pack of jackals, no biggie, getting the opportunity to actually do what he’s been itching to do for years is not going as well as he expected. Add in the antics of Twitler and his decision to entrust Rinse, Twitler and Bannon with the family jewels, I think he’s toast. Then again I never thought Twitler could be elected so what the hell do I know, but given Ryan is now joined at the hip with him……..

  62. 62.

    The Thin Black Duke

    I think more than a few republicans are slowly realizing that voting for this abomination is volunteering to be a suicide bomber.

  64. 64.

    beergoggles

    @efgoldman: My democratic senator voted for Ben friggen slaves-were-immigrants Carson. My democratic house rep voted against the PPACA. I really am not putting it past the people we expect better from to not fuck us over.

  66. 66.

    catclub

    @artem1s:

    I’m betting he’ll rewind all his greatest melt downs about the EC vs popular vote, blame Obama for everything, ISIS, immigrants, John McCain, even Lindsey.

    Maybe immigrants voting illegally in the House and Senate!

  70. 70.

    FlipYrWhig

    Wittman is my Congress rep and sometimes banks “moderate” cred. He’s pretty bad and disappointing when it comes to living up to his supposed moderation — so I’m pleasantly surprised here.

  71. 71.

    Gretchen

    I’m in Kansas 03, which Clinton won by 1, and Yoder won by 10. He won by 20 when Romney was running. There’s a healthcare demonstration at his office in Overland Park at noon on Thursday. I’m going. He’s not having town halls. His last office visit had lines down the street and around the block, and they weren’t there to tell him he’s doing a great job. People here are really, really pissed at the cuts to schools and roads because of Brownback’s tax cuts, and they’re not drinking the Republican koolaid right now. I’m really interested to see how James Thompson does running for Mike Pompeo’s seat in Wichita. He’s got doorknockers out every weekend, while not much is heard of the Brownback ally he is running against. http://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article132183819.html

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