The short answer is mass chaos.
The longer answer is we will seeing some non-controversial bills come up under suspension rules this morning. Around 10:00 AM, the Rules Committee will vote on the most recent set of changes that were placed in the bill overnight. Those changes (stripping or punting EHB mainly) are probably going to cost a quarter of a trillion dollars and could lead to millions more not getting coverage but they are not waiting for a CBO score. Once a special accelerated rule is voted on, the actual voting starts.
My opinion is that we are in good shape if there is an immediate blocking coalition of 23 Republican No votes in the first six or seven minutes. At that point, the internal logic of the Republican caucus makes voting Yes and seeing the bill Fail become a no reward position so we could see a cascade towards No. If we don’t see that, I would not be optimistic.
My gut feeling is that AHCA either passes by less than three votes or fails by more than fifteen. I can’t see the incentive structure for a narrow failure as the House leadership will hold the vote open for hours to arm twist a couple of hold-outs.
So call the House one last time.
GOP Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen, the Chair of the Appropriations Committee, says he is a “no” on the GOP health care bill pic.twitter.com/8aLRGzEIkZ
— Bradd Jaffy (@BraddJaffy) March 24, 2017
He is from New Jersey, part of leadership and as of this morning he was in the New York Times Undecided/Unclear column. So him moving to a clear No is intriguing.
What do you hear that the American Patriots (TM) in the Freedom! Caucus are up to? Are they still NOs? Or was the “approve or ObamaCare stays in place” threat hurled at their black, sulphur-pumping hearts?
More evidence of Trump voters being stupid. One is married to some in the country illegally – not Mexican – and is getting deported. They are all boo-hoo about how he is a good man and should be allowed to stay. Fuck them all.
The Very Reverend Crimson Fire of Compassion
Already have (again). Jason Smith is unavailable (still). Voicemail is full (still).
Bill Kristol has predicted it would fail.
Therefore it will pass.
@BBA: Damn. The anti-oracle of DC is never right.
So what’s the rough guess as to the time that the voting on the actual bill itself begins?
The Kristol thing is funny but exaggerated. He’s been right sometimes. I’ve got my husband on prayer duty today. He has his two assignments — AHCA fails; Manafort lawyers up.
They could still be “No”s to date, just Nos who will continue to work to harm Americans’ access to healthcare. Trump doesn’t set the legislative calendar, as much as he would like to.
O. Felix Culpa
Our Indivisible group is visiting Rep. Lujan’s office this morning. He’s a stalwart NO, so we’re going to thank him.
@Baud: We all should have taken the warning more seriously when he predicted Trump had no chance at the presidency.
From Robert Costa
From the Orange one
@JPL: Some other reporter pointed out that the leadership has to say this or doubters will swamp the ship in the rush to the “no” lifeboats. Nobody knows at all. David’s analysis strikes me as accurate.
Cedric Richmond (D, LA-2) is definitely a no, and I’ve sent messages giving him props for being an early no on this pile of BS. I have no idea what my former Congressman-turn-Senator (Bill Cassidy) will do if this squeaks through the House, though…
Manafort has hired a crisis communications team. That’s the first step. Lawyering up is next.
From last night’s thread.
In one of the most famous verses of Geeta, Krishna advises Arjuna on the battlefield of Kurukshetra, to do his best and not be attached to the results of his actions for they are not in his hands.We need to be karma yogis, or to be even more precise a nishkama karmayogis. निष्काम कर्मयोगी
Fight for the ACA and tune out the peddlers of doom and gloom, because it is the right thing to do, not because we are guaranteed a win.
Karmanye Vadhikaraste was the opening of the the late 80s DD TV show, Mahabharat.
I lean to “barely pass” because the GOP haven’t stood up to Trump in the past; why start now? Also, lots of $$$ piling up under tables. Hope I’m wrong, because I do not want (period) and do not want Trump to get vindication of his “negotiation” skills.
All elected R’s are massive assholes but this former R Maryland Gov Erlich (?) is a real fucking smarmy asshole.
Folks, PLEASE check out Seth Abrahmson’s “Mayflower/Rodney” Twitter thread sometime today…wow…
@Corner Stone: Maryland and Massachusetts should not have Republican governors. What did he do to raise your ire.
At this point I am more invested in not giving that loudmouthed buffoon any shred of anything to boast about.
I would also prefer people not die and be healthy, and it makes me even angrier that I feel the way I do. That striking down the man baby is somehow more important than health care.
Called Lamar Smith (no real point but made the effort). D.C. and local voicemail filled. Good sign. Sent email instead.
@ET: Trump is apparently a rorschach test for people. They see different things, mostly what they deeply want to see. Looking at evidence, reviewing past actions, testing for logic, nah can’t be bothered. These people all SAY Trump means what I want even if it’s nothing like any other Trump supporter says.
The other possibility is that the lady wanted an informal divorce or that someone in the family has it in for him. Just bought the restaurant from sis in law last month. I don’t know, but I can’t believe how stupid these people sound. I don’t want to be a snob, but I have more sympathy for drug addicts than idiots.
I read somewhere the kocch brothers are threatening to “primary” (donate money to opposition) any repub who votes yes.
Damned if they do, damned if they don’t. I hope they don’t, obviously, because passage of this bill would hurt (or kill, in some cases) millions of Americans. But should they prevail, they’ll find the victory Phyrric in short order. It’s a piece of shit bill.
If this bill becomes law, there will be a massive backlash. They are going beyond repealing the ACA to enacting punitive measures that are unbelievably cruel. And providing major tax breaks to the wealthy to boot. I can only hope some of the more savvy R’s understand this.
The WaPo is keeping a running tab of the Republicans in the No column. They can pass it if 22 vote no. The count at the moment is 32 No with 17 leaning No.
@schrodingers_cat: Oh, I did it to myself. I had MSNBC on and somehow forgot to mute it when he showed up on the panel. The guy is just a condescending POS with smarmy talking points he kept repeating and talking over Neera Tanden. And NT should not be allowed to go on TV.
This has to be seen to be believed. A paragraph from drumpf’s book “The America We Deserve”
“Working out a detailed plan takes time. But we must have universal healthcare.”
Someone made this comment below the tweet:
Jen @standingingrace 9h9 hours ago
That’s what happens when other people write your books and you never read what you “wrote”
I want to be a smarmy yogi. Completely secure in the knowledge that I am better than everyone else.
@Corner Stone: Smarter than the average bear?
I was feeling pretty good until I read that.
Called my Rep–Dem and still voting against. Said thank you. Intern seemed pleased to have a thank you, so thank your Reps that are doing the right thing!
Called the neighboring district Rep–my zip code is also in this Rep’s district, so I give my zip code when I call. Last two days the intern has said, “The Congressman hasn’t decided how he’s going to vote.” This morning it was, “I haven’t talked to the Congressman yet.” Not sure if that means anything. Requested the Congressman vote against the bill.
@Corner Stone: How Neera Tanden became a media person for various left-leaning causes and organizations is a mystery to me. She has a horrible voice, which you think someone would notice before making her a voice of progressive politics.
@Corner Stone: The so-called Hindu right in India is swarming with them.
I’ve called my Repub Congressman twice before to voice opposition. He’s a 70-year-old freshman Republican congressman from Michigan UP who to my knowledge has just one idiotic comment on record about the ACA from a couple months ago. I’ve assumed he’s an automatic yes – haven’t seen his name even in undecided lists. But this morning instead of expressing opposition first, I asked how he was going to vote today and the aide (Eli) said he didn’t know, hadn’t talked with him about it. I thought that was strange.
Somewhere around here there must be some schadenfreude to sprinkle in my second cup of coffee…..
ETA: Mo Brooks – of course it’s Obama’s fault! If he hadn’t had the audacity to provide health care to the poors we wouldn’t be in the embarrassing position of having to take it away from them!
@danielx: My guess is, Kristol said that because he likes to think that Republicans as a whole are better than they are. He sees how toxic the bill is.
Our hope is, some of the more reality-based GOP congresscritters do see this for the horrible bill, and political predicament, it is, and will vote “No.” And we have the meanest and dumbest among them — the Freedom Caucus — who don’t believe government should be involved in healthcare — free markets! So they’re a “No” too, and can suck up all that nice Koch Brothers cash too.
Bill Kristol is a waste of protoplasm. He’s someone I will be happy to learn has died. And it’s possible he’s right that the bill will fail, although not perhaps for the reasons in his tiny mind.
@Jeffro: Wow as in “2 trains pulling refined gasoline just wrecked next to a fireworks factory” or “actually useful information?”
I went through some of it and I am on boat #1
@schrodingers_cat: Swarming smarmy yogis? That does not sound like a healthy environment.
What I’d love to see is someone interview Trump, bring up details about the bill, and ask him to explain why that’s a good thing. Does anyone doubt Obama or Clinton could pass this test?
Taibbi in rollingstone
Just spoke to gutless wonder Vern Buchanan’s local office again — they know my voice and are sick of it at this point. Buchanan’s been on the fence so long his ass must be full of splinters. I suspect he’ll vote in favor in the end because he’s a tool.
Oh, MA has had Republican governors nearly my whole life. People view them as a check on the veto-proof Dem legislature; a self-refuting assertion, I know. Honestly, Republican priorities did better under Democrat, Deval Patrick, who at least recognized the good elements within certain GOP proposals, isolated those, and got them passed (with proper regulatory oversight).
Now we have Charlie Baker. I have no major gripe with the guy. I’m damn near certain there’ll be a Democrat I prefer next year, but Baker doesn’t strike me as the sort of opportunistic part-time Governor, part-time saboteur that Romney was.
@David Anderson: both?
@germy: As an old friend once observed, Taibbi makes a better condiment than a meal, but when he’s right, he’s right.
@Kropadope: I don’t know school teachers around here, don’t seem to like the guy much. I have no opinion, he doesn’t seem too bad for a Republican.
@Betty Cracker: Taibbi has blind spots when it comes to a certain.. ahem.. . subject, but he’s amusing when discussing republicans, especially their looks. I remember his description of Scott Walker: “An overdressed traffic cop.”
It’s so basic, yet he would never be able to answer it.
another dumbing down of the Presidency for this Mediocre White Man
@germy: don’t need a fricken taibbi to tell us the obvious. we can see that with our own fricken eyes.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
I thought Sanford had been a ‘no’ all along? So many conflicting reports on twitter, such a close vote, it is, indeed, fucking chaos.
@germy: I thought Rand Paul’s chainsaw thing pre-dated trump? I like what @Betty Cracker: says about a condiment rather than a meal, but as much as I’m a fan of Maddow, I think her habit of typing certain stories, and certainly of dragging and overhyping an interesting story until she buries the interesting in teasing and mugging (still a fan) that definitely pre-dates trump.
Andy Harris’ office is not picking up. His voice mailbox is also full. I tried a local office and they also are not answering. He’s Maryland’s one Republican representative and, as I learned yesterday, his mostly white, mostly rural district has the highest number of Medicaid recipients in the state. Go figure.
@schrodingers_cat: I think the one thing I saw from Baker that really stuck in my craw was when he cut a bunch of money from the MBTA and basically told them “figure out how to make this work.” Aside from my preference for robust public transit, shouldn’t you figure out how to make it work before cutting the money?
@rikyrah: Remember when President Obama held that legislative panel on healthcare to help shepherd the ACA through Congress? He was peppered with hostile, gotcha questions for hours by so-called “wonks” like Ryan, and even his enemies had to acknowledge he had an impressive command of the subject. Replacing a man like Obama with a brainless fool like Trump was the worst downgrade in history.
The Moar You Know
Just called. The people on the other end are quite nice. I’m still pretty sure Douchebag Issa will vote yes, but you never know.
Lotta old people in this district who don’t want the government taking their Medicare…
@The Very Reverend Crimson Fire of Compassion:
I don’t even bother with that useless weaselly POS.
Tis true. We fight for the part of the 24 million who were smart enough NOT to vote for the muthaphuckas who would take away their healthcare. If we succeed, the other ones just get dragged along for good measure.
@Jeffro: All that information is in the public sphere. And not one national reporter put it all into one place before the general election?
And who in the hell got the 19% of Rosneft? And why?
Jim, Foolish Literalist
this guy, Matt Fuller, who twitter seems to think is the go-to vote counter, shows 27 firm votes against, but even he says this could change because of pressure from on high. I wonder who Rand Paul and Ted Cruz are on the phone with today.
It was a tradition in the Northeast, long after Democrats became a major force in the 20th century, to keep Republicans around as a check on complacency and corruption in the Democratic Party. And arguably, that was actually quite a healthy practice. The thing is that those were traditionally moderate Republican organizations, that you could trust weren’t going to use the opportunity to declare war on unions, shred the safety net, and break the budget. Moderate Republicans aren’t really a thing anymore, even in the Northeast – the right wing’s put a stupendous amount of effort into uniformizing the party at all levels regardless of actual constituents – so the rationale for the old voting patterns is increasingly obsolete and, frankly, harmful.
Who the fuck is Trump to “demand” a vote in the House?
@Betty Cracker: They are all tools. A subset of the GOOPERS enjoy their media reputation as moderates(S. Collins) or mavericks (McCain) but when the rubber meets the road they all fall in line and vote for the leadership position. I know the two names are Senators not House members but the senators tend to get more press. The only House member that I can think of as a genuine renegade is Jones from NC.
@Betty Cracker: Not to be shallow but the worst downgrade ever in the looks department too. From a guy who could be a runway model to a fat slob with awful hair and skin, who burns my retinas any time I am unfortunate enough to glance his mug on the screen.
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Sanford is Freedom Caucus, so that may be an indication of how they’re going to vote.
Same thing with John Rutherford (R), FL-4. Voicemail has been full for days. Zero accountability to his constituents. But he has no worries, even though 80% of dems from our county voted, we are outnumbered 2 to 1.
@rikyrah: AKA, “The History of Progress in the US.”
“Not my department. says Werner von Braun.”
Yep. And this is why I’ve always been afraid that ACA repeal would pass when push comes to shove.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@schrodingers_cat: Even homely people can stand/sit up straight, acknowledge the existence of other people in a meeting, and generally conduct themselves with some basic level of dignity.
Well, from the loyal Republican voters I know, MA Republican voters are entirely on board with the national Republican program (pogrom?). There are enough of them, when combined with the people barely paying attention, to elect a governor. Honestly, though, Charlie Baker’s not a
Jim, Foolish Literalist
I don’t who this guy is, but he gets retweeted a lot by ACA supporters
@Chris: I think even the most mavericky among them can see a 17% public approval rating for the GOP’s toxic replace plan and think “holy shit, do I want to keep getting smacked with that next election?”
If they’re from a potentially competitive district. Or state.
@Kropadope: Baker is the kind of businessman/technocrat Mitt Romney pretended to be. He also knows enough to go with his state’s flow. But if AHCA becomes law, there’s a hole in his budget I don’t know how he can fix.
Hehe, sometimes research is amusing. ::Long sigh:: Nazis…
@pamelabrown53: 80% Dem turnout in your very red county is still pretty amazing. I don’t know what it is in mine. But if we keep up the enthusiasm and win some converts, and the wing nuts get depressed, maybe we have a slim chance in 2018. It’s good to dream.
I have come to see it as our old nemesis, Privilege. They really are all spoiled children who don’t think rules apply to them.
No wonder they adore Trump.
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Yep he fails as a human being on the most basic level.
@pamelabrown53: My worthless POS rep, Vern Buchanan, won by 20 points. But I think that recent town hall filled with angry, mostly older, white folks gave him a jolt. He’ll probably vote “yes,” but he’s singing a markedly different tune these days on Trump. We shall see.
Well, fortunately we’ll have lots of people working on it and I’m hoping the pre-existing mini-Obamacare we have in MA will shield us from some of the worst effects.
@tobie: I saw the early voting for district 6, and the sites aren’t favorable to Ossoff.
imo Only one site has Saturday hours, and that’s only for one day.
@tobie: Because, remember, Medicaid isn’t a government program nor a hand-out …he represents many of the stupidest in our state; but it is very close on the poll’s – 41% for, 40% against in his district. That is why he isn’t allowing people to call.
@germy: read the same thing in multiple places.
Hopefully they are more afraid of the Koch Brothers than they are of Trump (I know I would be)
@Corner Stone: The Swarming Smarmy Yogis would make an excellent tongue-twister.
@Kropadope: Another Masshole bragging about their healthcare…. ;-)
@ET: The husband who is about to be deported is Mexican. This is yet another case where a Trump voter was ok with screwing with other people but got personally burned. Karma is a b so…
@OzarkHillbilly: I didn’t even get to our teaching hospitals…
article by Gabe Sherman (A.K.A. what ails Ailes)
I just called my Democratic Congressperson and thanked her for standing against the bill.
@Cermet: Hey, where did you get this cool information about polling in individual districts like Harris’, MD-1? I didn’t know such micro-data was available. MD-1 straddles the eastern shore and rich exurbs in places like Anne Arundel and Harford County. It’s a combo of greedy bastards (and closet racists) and poor, out-and-out racists. I’m somewhat wigged out, though, that the racist phuck who stabbed a black man to death in New York was from Baltimore City and actually went to the Friend’s School. The Friend’s School??? Well, all my stereotypes about Quaker kids have just been busted.
From the Washington Post
Several House Republicans previously opposed to an overhaul of the nation’s health-care system said Friday they are likely to support the legislation, as GOP leaders said a vote is expected by late afternoon to attempt to deliver the central promise that brought them to power.
There is only one story big enough to wipe the failure (if it happens) of the GOP repeal plan……Trump and Russia. Plus, the loss makes Trump appear weaker to the rest of the GOP. So, my hope for the day is the failure of this shit sandwich of a bill with a very quick pivot by the GOP to looking at the Russian problem……please FSM, please.
@ET: The wife of the deportee is a naturalized American citizen. Immigrated from Greece 30 years ago.
Ricardo Beristain, a Mexican national, visited an aunt in Los Angeles in 1998, liked the country, and overstayed his visa. In 1999 or 2000, he married the Trump voting Greek immigrant, Helen.
In 2000, he and Helen accidentally crossed the border into Canada (she was pregnant at the time), and came to attention of authorities. Which was during Bill Clinton’s presidency. And then Mr. Beristain was known to authorities and checked in, every year during the presidencies of GW Bush and Barack Obama. He was given a work permit, a driver’s license, and a Social Security number. The Beristains had three American born children.
From the South Bend Tribune, in Indiana: Eddie’s Steak Shed owner held for deportation
Wife and kids wait, hope for reprieve from ICE agent
ICE only decided to move on him once Trump had given them the go-ahead to deport widescale. There are apparently about 1 million with orders to deport, still remaining in the US. Three previous presidents had shown more discretion, pretty much going after those with criminal convictions.
Ah yes. Deport the illegals. But not that upstanding illegal I know. Uh huh.
All said, story depicts how difficult it is for a Mexican citizen to enter the US legally. It was likely much easier for Trump-loving Helen the Greek, back in 1987 or earlier.
Also gotta wonder how that’s going to go for the Greek immigrant family. Is Ricardo going to be able to pay off the note for buying the restaurant now? Did he pay cash? I’m curious on that front …
Leopards, here be your faces.
@Corner Stone: it looks like multiple folks got pieces of that 19%…including Kushner and Trump?
The Very Reverend Crimson Fire of Compassion
@OzarkHillbilly: I know it’s a purely symbolic gesture. Sometimes I just have to, though, for my own sake.
I just called my Congressman to thank him for his opposition to the bill. It was the first time I’ve called lately that I couldn’t get through on the first try. It seems constituent response has been twelve hundred to one against the AHCA. That’s not a ratio, those are the actual numbers.
I think the magic number for passage is 21 Republican no votes or less – 430 members means 216 votes to pass, and there are 237 Republicans.
@tobie: FTR Harris is also the Far Wrong asshole who made some headlines after his first election to Congress by complaining about health care. His own. He was pissed that his Congressional Cadillac package didn’t take effect until he was sworn in–i.e., officially a Congresscritter–& not the day after the election. Must’ve huffed too much of his own stock-in-trade during his previous career as an anesthesiologist.
I called LoBiondo (NJ-2, basically the southern part of the state), couldn’t get through to the D.C. office, but got a nice person in the local office. He’s been on record as a no, but I figure reinforcement can’t hurt. I also sent an email last night, so maybe I can get counted twice. (We don’t live there, but it’s where we go in the summer, and I have a good address in the district.)
Also, I’ve been thinking for a while what Mr. Anderson says about what happens if it fails – it won’t be close. I actually think if it fails that it could fail by a lot, with maybe an extra 25 Rs voting no since they’ll have cover. But I have no prediction on whether it passes or not.
@Chris: The current GOP would give Hitler a MAN of The Year award for helping to create 12 million jobs in the US from 1941-1945 if the leadership put it to a vote..
This isn’t legislation. This is an attempted coup.
@Timurid: Tell it. Attempted coup.
I don’t think the GOP should accomplish anything major, not healthcare, nor Supreme Court nominee, tax “reform”, nothing, until the investigations into Russian interference are complete. Which may take some time. (And drama.)
Illegitimate administration, acting against the best interests of the majority of Americans. It was a coup.
@Kropadope: Also, Massachusetts governors are elected in midterm years, and Massachusetts actually has more conservative Republicans than people think, particularly in the whiter suburbs. Combine that with a lot of NPR-centrist types who like the idea of rewarding the Republican Party for running their more hinged members, and you’ve got a recipe for a lot of moderate Republicans governors. Our only recent Democratic one was elected in a year that was a notorious landslide against the Bush administration across the board.
I called Wenstrup’s office again, am told he hasn’t made up his mind yet.
Yellow-bellied coward gerrymandered into a safe seat.
Wrote him an email saying we’re going to find out how he votes/voted soon enough. Really, how stupid do they think we are?
@Timurid: The coup has been successful.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Ohio Mom: I wonder if that’s “I’m voting yes but don’t want to say” or “I’m waiting to see if they get to 23 without me”
I’m sure Dems are troll-faxing this to every office on the Hill
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Believe it when you see it, but…
still worth calling
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: I’m guessing it’s “I’m hoping and praying they get to 23 without me.”
Such a big game of chicken they are all playing.
And reelected in a Republican landslide year against Obama. I volunteered that year, the first time I was involved in a political campaign organized around a person rather than an issue.
If you can’t reach your Congresscritter by phone, try faxing with FaxZero.com.
I just remembered this site that someone linked to a few days ago.
Half my town is now in Freylingheisen’s district (not my half – we have good guy Donald Payne, Jr.), and I cannot tell you how intense the pressure has been on him to vote no. It was relentless. Good for NJ 11th for Change!
It looks like all 3 NJ Republicans will be voting no. I guess they want to be reelected.
I like this way of thinking about it. I have believed all along that anyone attaching themselves to Trump were buying themselves a hornets nest of bad karma to deal with. This bill is the result of chaotic thinking. Any effort they extend toward keeping it alive only intensifies the chaos. I admit I have been impatient for this comeuppance. But the longer it drags out the more beautiful it is in it’s realization.
The GOP failed to detach themselves from the results of their actions to ‘win’ the battle of Obamacare years ago. They sowed the wind and now they are reaping the whirlwind.
A friend called Chris Smith (central New Jersey) and the aide confirmed that he’s a no.
Called Gary Palmer (central Alabama, Tea Partier) — he’s still a yes. (Media reports that he switched when Trump walked up to him and demanded a switch, no further argument.) Asked why he supported EHB removal when it didn’t help the deficit, didn’t help patients, and didn’t help the political optics. Staffer had no answer.
@catfishncod: Poor you. But Palmer’s someone who feels bulletproof in central Alabama. Gag. I wish he’d get a very rude awakening in 2018.