As others have remarked, today is the 100th anniversary of the US’s entry into World War I. I recently began reading Robert Gerwarth’s The Vanquished. Gerwarth’s book focuses on how and why WW I never really ended, especially for those on the losing end of the war. Which led to almost 2 decades of civil wars, ethnic cleansing, revolutions, and acts of what we would now call terrorism. These events set the conditions for the rise of fascism, its racist offshoot of NAZIsm, and the spread of Bolshevism contributing to WW II.
I came across a reference to Gerwarth’s book in a post by Josh Marshall. Marshall’s referencing of The Vanquished spoke to me as I had just begun thinking through a report I’m working on in regard to how to set the conditions in Iraq and Syria to win the peace, not just the war, against ISIL. The President’s change of position in regard to Assad, including tonight’s limited strike on a Syrian military airfield, makes thinking of such things even more important.
Marshall highlighted one passage from Gerwarth’s book:
“Nazi Germany and its overtly exterminationist imperial project of the later 1930s and and early 1940s owed much to the logic of ethnic conflict and irredentism created by the Great War and the redrawing of borders in 1918-19.”
Marshall applied Gerwarth’s analysis to make this important point:
Cataclysmic and sustained violence is brutalizing and traumatizing to whole societies as much as it is to individuals. The victorious states at least had victory to justify what had happened. The defeated states not only lacked ‘victory’; the end of the conflict saw something approaching complete societal collapse. There was the collapse of states, recurrent revolutions, often followed by reaction and new rounds of violence. More than anything else there was a search to find some way to justify or create some value to justify the scale of loss. After a brief window of time where leaders tried to create democracies out of the collapsed states and thus become ‘victors’ against destroyed autocracies, the two most obvious channels were to build up cults of revenge or to strive to create new, ethnically pure states. In many cases, the two drives were combined.
One persistent theme of this story was that each ‘ethnicity’ had a state somewhere or was trying to create one that would vindicate and protect it and brutalize those communities which stood in the way of creating ethnically homogenous states. So Magyars were the brutalizers in one place and the brutalized in another – the same could be said for virtually every national group, albeit with the groups with new states generally having the whip hand. This story is most discussed in the arc of German history but Gerwarth places it in a broader, pan-European (at least all-East and Central European) context.
What connects WW I and today is that the US and its allies at the time failed to properly secure the peace at the end of WW I. The real strategic challenge facing the US led Coalition in the fight against ISIL in Iraq and Syria, as well as the actions of the Assad government, is not how to conduct the fight. We are very good at this. With a lot of hard won knowledge accumulated over the past sixteen years. Rather the real strategic challenge is how do we, working by, with, and through our local partners set the conditions, as part of these campaigns, to win the peace and ensure that the people of Iraq and Syria post ISIL and of Syria post civil war have the opportunity and security to move forward in a peaceful manner. Rather than devolving once again into sectarian violence and/or civil war.
One of the most difficult pieces of the Syrian problem set is that no one in Syria on the ground, or among the exile Syrian groups involved with the Syrian Civil War, can articulate what happens after the Civil War ends. There is nothing even close to a consensus on who controls what. There is nothing even close to a consensus on who would replace Assad if he should go. There is nothing even close to a consensus on what to do if Assad doesn’t go. There is nothing even close to a consensus as to who gets to consider themselves Syrian or what that will even mean post Civil War. And there is almost no discussion about the on the ground reality that this is not simply Russian and Iranian backed Assad and the Alawite minority versus all the other Syrians. Assad has support from a cross section of Syrians, not just the Alawites. But Syriac Christians, Syrian Druze, those portions of the Syrian Sunni community that have benefited from his family’s rule and/or been coopted by the Assads through patronage. The Syrian Civil War, despite the best efforts of almost everyone, cannot simply be reduced to: Assad and the Alawites with the backing of Russia and Iran against everyone else. This is simply not true. To borrow Gerwath’s formulation, or Marshall’s interpretation of Gerwath: there are brutalizers and brutalized on each side of the Syrian Civil War. Breaking that dynamic, or, at least, working by, with, and through our local partners to set the conditions to do so, will be necessary to not just win the war, but to win and secure the peace.
Gin & Tonic
That’s for wimps. Manly men use bombs.
Seth Owen
It’s a good thing President Trump is a nuanced thinker who can oversee the complex process of picking through all the competing interests to come up with a settlement acceptable to the key stakeholders. Bigly.
debbie
@Gin & Tonic:
Yeah, I’d say any chance of peace is smoldering in Syria at this moment.
ThresherK
If You want a weekly update in “real time plus a century” on The Great War, a neat series is hosted on YouTube by Indy Neidell.
I am up to week 130, putting me a bit behind the times.
Adria McDowell (formerly Lurker Extraordinaire
So what you are saying, is that there is no consensus.
Funny, there is no consensus in this country on what the US should do about this issue, either.
I don’t think any good will come of this.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: How’s the arm?
Smedley Darlington Prunebanks (Formerly Mumphrey, et al.)
I feel shitty right now. We have the worst imaginable leader [sic] steering us right now. I hope to God I’m wrong, but I can’t see this ending any way other than badly.
Adam L Silverman
@Adria McDowell (formerly Lurker Extraordinaire: These problems, which are really issues of state and societal formation and delineation, developed over many, many years. They are not easy to solve, let alone manage and mitigate. There are not easy answers or solutions to them. If there were, they would have been implemented by now.
BBA
And I would rather be anywhere else but here today.
lamh36
I just can’t even right now…
I joked, who’d be the first to start selling …welp…
Alternative Fax, a hip hop artist from Idaho
How many Tomahawk missiles launched at Syria while I was at dinner out with Mr. Q? I think I read 59. The Saffron Shitheel sure knows how to distract from news that’s not good for him.
Gin & Tonic
@Adam L Silverman: Surgeon said the x-rays look “wonderful.” I got a smaller and lighter cast. I’ve been enjoying some libations as a result. But the pins stay in for another 2-4 weeks, so the arm still isn’t very useful. Tomorrow I’ll head to the gym and see what’s possible and what isn’t.
lamh36
@CNBC
Oil prices jump after US launches missile strike in Syria
https://twitter.com/CNBC/status/850170015739506690
Adria McDowell (formerly Lurker Extraordinaire
@Adam L Silverman: I know. I was trying to be snarky. It’s the way I cope with bullshit like this.
My last sentence in that post was sincere, though. We have practically no one in our top “leadership” that gets what you are talking about. Maaaaaybe Mattis and McMaster, but that’s about it.
lamh36
Adam L Silverman
@Smedley Darlington Prunebanks (Formerly Mumphrey, et al.): This was an over the horizon response. It was low hanging fruit and the least we could do. This is not an increase in boots on the ground. Frankly, other than a Special Forces raid, that would take months and despite the President’s stated preference for surprise, wouldn’t be one because it would become clear we were moving significant amounts of conventional forces. And it would require Congressional actions to appropriate the money for it, even if it was done as contingency funding. And that would, likely bring about debate on a new AUMF to cover this type of action.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: Sounds positive. We’re keeping good thoughts.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Michael McFaul (Obama’s ambassador to Russia) says he’s hearing there may have been Iranian personnel at the airbase, and Hezbollah (Hezb’allah?)
Thru the Looking Glass...
@Gin & Tonic:
Gotta keep up with the times…
mai naem mobile
@lamh36: maybe this will make those Dolt 45 voters economically anxious so they’ll vote for him again.
Adria McDowell (formerly Lurker Extraordinaire
@Adam L Silverman: Trump desperately wants to be a war president. I don’t think the GOP in Congress is going to tell him no. It’s not like they’ll pay a political price for it, either. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if we end up with boots on ground there.
Thru the Looking Glass...
@lamh36:
Oh yeah… his Reichstag moment!
Donnie’s acting so… so… commanderly… commanderish… commanderiffic!
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Swear I just heard Hallie Jackson say McMaster said they did not
ETA: Pentagon has released video of the missile launches, so Joe Lieberman and Marco Rubio and probably several million Americans can pump there fists and go “YEAH!”, cause war is a video game now.
Frank Wilhoit
One of Nixon’s NSC staffers, Fred Ikle (pronounced “Fred E. Clay”) published his dissertation as a book, entitled “Every War Must End”. I have always thought that that was one of the top all-time handful of ironic titles, because no war ever has. The only way to end a war would be to erase the losers from the Earth and from history. Otherwise they spend eternity grasping for revenge, which really means that the war is still going on. We will start more wars — we may have started one today — but none will ever end.
Alternative Fax, a hip hop artist from Idaho
@Gin & Tonic: “Wonderful” sounds like a very good comment from your surgeon. Enjoy your libations (and lighter cast) and take it very easy with that arm. Which I know you will, but harriers gotta harry.
lamh36
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: I believe Malcolm Nance was on MSNBC before McFaul and brought up the possibiliy that casualties were also Iranian.
Trump and Iran do NOT have the same relationship as Trump and Russia right.
The reports are that Russia was notified before the strikes, which I guess isn’t “unusual”, but if the conspiracy theory was a Putin/Assad backed “wag the dog” scenario…where would Iran fit in.
And if not part of this “loop” would Iran feel need for retaliation?
BBA
Let me be as callous and cynical as I can be right now: of course the US should never have entered the Great War. What business was it of ours if the European powers were going to reduce each other to rubble? As it stood, the Allied Powers thought winning meant they were in the right, when they were just an infinitesimally lighter shade of grey than their opponents. Fuck ’em. White lives don’t matter.
Okay, enough of that. I don’t like being the person who says those kinds of things.
Baud
@lamh36:
Not a surprise. They want to gush over him. Remember his speech to Congress.
Adam L Silverman
@Adria McDowell (formerly Lurker Extraordinaire: Secretary Mattis and LTG McMaster know their business. The problem is that Secretary Mattis has a thin to hollow Department of Defense. He has no Service Secretaries in place. He has no Deputy, Under, and/or Deputy Assistant Secretaries in place at DOD or the Services. He’s got no Directors, Deputy Directors, and/or Special Assistants at DOD or the Services. Basically it is him, whatever Obama appointed holdovers are still there, whoever was on the beachead team (who he didn’t pick0, the senior executives, the civil servants, uniformed personnel, and contractors. He’s missing two entire layers of management. He has no “Mattis Team”. This is the same problem that also exists at the State Department. Though State has the additional problem of having a Secretary of State who doesn’t seem to either understand his job and the job of the State Department. LTG McMaster is still trying to fill out his own team, but he’s got more personnel assets in terms of a team, even if some of them are Flynn holdovers, at his immediate disposal.
lamh36
Adam L Silverman
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: That is, supposedly, where some of the Quds Force/Revolutionary Guards and Hezbullah are based.
(As for Hezbullah – it is a transliterated word and there is no one right way to write it in English.)
Gin & Tonic
@Alternative Fax, a hip hop artist from Idaho: Two weeks ago he called it “a bag of crushed bone.” So I think this is a step in the right direction.
Baud
@lamh36: I was wondering about that.
Adam, do we have separate legal authority to enforce the chemical weapons treaty?
Thru the Looking Glass...
At least Trump didn’t pick a fight w/ an unhinged loon w/ nuclear weapons…
Just an unhinged loon with NO nuclear weapons…
Any bets Republicans try to halt all and any investigations into Russian hacking while we’re ‘at war’?
NotMax
Where’s today’s incarnation of Gen. Smedley Butler when we need him/her?
Fair Economist
I can see an outcome in Syria. Assad defeats the islamicist rebels (he was well on the way before this), and then turns on the Kurds and establishes complete control. Not a desirable outcome, but plausible.
I don’t think Trump wagging the dog is a significant threat to Assad. Even assuming there’s no complex subterfuge going on via the Russians, he can just refrain from further chemical attacks without making any announcement and threaten to ignore Daesh if the US continues bombing.
lamh36
And here we go…video footage released…cause nothing give pseudo-soldiers a boner like Call of Duty-esque war videos…smh. Prediction: Expect those quieted soft Trump supporters let out a vocal roar of “we gotta support our Cheeto Prez”
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
amygdala
I think this is also an anniversary of the start of the genocide in Rwanda.
I wish I had some faith the SoS or someone in the WH knows how hideously complex the situation in Syria is. Make more refugees while we bolt our doors. Yeah, there’s a plan.
Adria McDowell (formerly Lurker Extraordinaire
@BBA: There are historians that agree with you. That we never should have gotten involved in WWI. I’ve also heard that we should have entered on the side of Germany, so, there’s that, I guess. I think that last part might be far fetched, though.
lamh36
“morals…” um we are talking about Cheeto right?
Thru the Looking Glass...
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
No doubt, replete w/ dramatic cuts and pounding patriotic music…
Actually, back when Shrubb was starting one of his wars, I saw a clip of him on the evening news, shot just as bombs were starting to fall… he actually did do a fist pump and shout ,”YEEESSSSS!”
I think I threw up in my mouth a little, watching that…
I’m no longer capable of not hating these people completely…
Adria McDowell (formerly Lurker Extraordinaire
@Adam L Silverman: I guess we go to war with the Department of Defense we have, not the one we wished we had./snark
Fuck it, my snark meter is pegged. Thank you for your analysis, Adam.
philadelphialawyer
Another interpretation might be that it is impossible to win the peace in Syria, forthcoming “reports” to the contrary notwithstanding. Just as it was in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya. So maybe we should go forego the war. Because it is unwise.
A second reason to forego the war is that is contrary to international law. Assuming Assad used chemical weapons, that is an issue that should be raised at the UNSC. There is no UNSC authorization for the US missile attack. And no credible case for self defense on the part of the US either. Thus, the attack is illegal, as aggressive war making, under the UN Charter. According to the position of the US at Nuremberg, and at the trials of the Japanese officials, aggressive war making is a crime, and one which calls for the death penalty for the individuals who conducted it.
A third reason to forego the war is that is immoral. I don’t think a case can be made under the Just War theory, or any other widely accepted moral theory of war, for this attack.
Citizen_X
@lamh36:
MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!
Mnemosyne
Just out of curiosity, has any Congressional Republican made a peep about this totally unilateral action done without their permission?
Compare and contrast with their screams of outrage when Obama took any action at all internationally.
Adam L Silverman
@Adria McDowell (formerly Lurker Extraordinaire: He was a war president the day he was sworn in. We have been at war since October 2001. Hell, if you add it up, there’s only about fifteen years in total since the US was founded, that we haven’t been at war somewhere.
As for boots on the ground. He may want to do that, but other than Special Forces, who are already stretched thin globally, it will take time. Just on the Army side, and as I’ve written in comments here before, we are at least one Corps light right now. We only have three of them. One is in Iraq right now running Combined Joint Task Force Operation Inherent Resolve. One is currently preparing to relieve them later this year, which will be its second rotation to CJTF OIR within 2 years (they just got back last JUL/AUG). One is dedicated against US Army Pacific and US Pacific Command and will also have to do double duty as the Global Response Force while the returning Corps resets and refits and the other one is deployed. This also means that we are several Divisions short and even more Brigade Combat Teams. The difference could be made up with a Marine Ground Air Task Force (MAGTF/pronounced MAGTAF) for a while. We have the ability to place both a Command Element MAGTF in as the CJTF OIR, as well as a Ground Command MAGTF in as the Combined Joint Force Land Component Command (C/JFLCC), but only for a short time. The Marines don’t do logistics. They rely on the Army (for Land Operations) and the Navy (for Maritime Operations) for logistics and sustainment. In short: Marines fight battles. The Army conducts campaigns.
Adam L Silverman
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: You did. So, apparently, we have conflicting accounts. The question at this point is who, within the Administration, is Secretary Tillerson in contact with?
Omnes Omnibus
@Adam L Silverman: October 2001, right?
lamh36
Journos today saw what happened to journos during last “war time” Prez GWB…so watch for those brave enough criticize President Cheeto…ON CAMERA and OUT LOUD!
I’ll Wait…
Comrade Scrutinizer
That’s all this is about, Adam. No geopolitical thought, or goals. It’s bullshit, designed for distraction, and as always, it works.
Adam L Silverman
@Frank Wilhoit: We did a pretty good job with WW II.
NotMax
A reminder that the price tag of each cruise missile is a million and a half simoleons.
Omnes Omnibus
Sixty cruise missiles? The fuck?
Adria McDowell (formerly Lurker Extraordinaire
@Adam L Silverman: You mean October 2001?
Villago Delenda Est
@lamh36: The vermin of the Village love the bombing of brown people. It’s great for ratings, it gives them stuff to pontificate about, it makes them seem important.
The origins of the Syrian civil war have been criminally neglected by the Villagers; religious conflict is better for ratings that discussing a drought (oh noes, it’s that fake “climate change” again!) that drove hundreds of thousands from rural areas to the urban areas creating the conditions for people to decide they had nothing left to lose by resorting to violence. As Adam points out, there are plenty of groups in Syria who support Assad for a variety of reasons that complicate the portrayal of the conflict beyond the MEGO range of Villagers.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOCOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOONODE!
lamh36
@Mnemosyne: Rubio on MSNBC…supporting. Oscar and Felix…I’m sorry, McCain and Graham also issued statement of support I believe
Villago Delenda Est
@NotMax: So, we’re looking at what, nine or ten trips to Mar-A-Lago by Tangerine Titmouse?
opiejeanne
@Gin & Tonic: Good news for sure, but take it easy with that arm at the gym. Oh, you know that already, just ignore me. Glad you’re doing so well.
lamh36
Ugh…Fuq it, I’m out…I’ll see ya’ll on the flipside may be…
Adria McDowell (formerly Lurker Extraordinaire
@Villago Delenda Est:
THIS.
efgoldman
@Mnemosyne:
Hahahahahahahahahaha
Hohohohohohohohohohohohoho
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah
Omnes Omnibus
@Adam L Silverman: As I just said to an old army buddy who was with 2ACR in the Persian Gulf War, McMaster is the only person involved with this Admin in whom I have any confidence.
patroclus
The only way I even remotely think this is a good move is that, now that we’ve shown our “strength,” we ramp up our soft power and begin an aggressive diplomatic initiative designed to bring the Russians and all relevant parties (and that includes many) to agree to a cease-fire/armistice that can hopefully last long enough to begin serious negotiations to a peaceful settlement. Given the current deficiencies in that regard, I don’t think that’s gonna happen. So I predict that this will do little good, it will further de-stabilize the situation and make any settlement more complicated. Obama didn’t do much, but at least they eliminated ‘some’ chemical weapons after his efforts. I don’t see much, if any, good that this will do. And all the gushing by virtually all the media is just sickening and reminds me of the early days of the Iraq debacle.
philadelphialawyer
@Baud: No.
3. In cases where serious damage to the object and purpose of this Convention may result from activities prohibited under this Convention, in particular by Article I, the Conference may recommend collective measures to States Parties in conformity with international law.
4. The Conference shall, in cases of particular gravity, bring the issue, including relevant information and conclusions, to the attention of the United Nations General Assembly and the United Nations Security Council.
That’s the compliance procedure in the treaty.
Adam L Silverman
@Baud: I don’t know. Here is the list of all UN Security Council Resolutions regarding Syria:
http://www.securitycouncilreport.org/un-documents/search.php?ctype=Syria&rtype=Security%20Council%20Resolutions&cbtype=syria&search=%22Security%20Council%20Resolutions%22%20AND%20%22Syria%22&__mode=tag&IncludeBlogs=10&limit=15&page=2
Here’s the link to the Chemical Weapons Convention:
https://www.opcw.org/chemical-weapons-convention/
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Mnemosyne: @lamh36: Dems are being very cautious
Tazj
@Mnemosyne: I briefly saw Marco Rubio on television before I switched stations. No surprise, he supports this.
Marco Rubio @marcorubio
lamh36
Ugh huh…
NotMax
Real (ca. 1917) WWI ditty:
Oh, oh, oh it’s a lovely war.
Who wouldn’t be a soldier, eh?
Oh it’s a shame to take the pay.
We never, never learn.
jl
@lamh36: That was a Rex statement after the strikes? If so, the administration thinks that senseless randomness will be an effective approach to foreign policy?
Edit: OK I asked a dumb question. And I used the word ‘think’ with regard to the Drumpf administration. My question makes no sense.
Timurid
The press and both parties are already lining up around the block to swallow the hook. For the cost of a few missiles. And there’s no shortage of missiles and shifty foreigners to shoot them at. If it’s this stupidly easy to shift opinion, these guys are going to win this and win it going away…
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
Baud
@philadelphialawyer: Thanks!
I recall that the fight against ISIS was based on a loose reading of the AUMF given some tenuous connection between Al Qeada and ISIS. Not sure what this is based on.
Adam L Silverman
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: Consistency, small minds, hobgoblins.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Tazj: Good christ (Nixon voice). They’re making it a crusade. Brilliant!
amygdala
@Mnemosyne: McCain & Graham are leading the standing O.
Adam L Silverman
@Adria McDowell (formerly Lurker Extraordinaire: You’re welcome.
Brachiator
I was out to dinner and later checked the news to see something about Trump giving the OK for a series of missile attacks against Syria. What the hell.
Sadly, I can just hear Trump supporters cheering this. And somewhere some pundit is about to explain how killing Syrians sends a message to North Korea.
And John McCain just had a missile orgasm.
Adam L Silverman
@Omnes Omnibus: Yeah. Long day. Fat fingered typo. I fixed it.
Villago Delenda Est
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: Also, too, “Hodor!”
philadelphialawyer
@Adam L Silverman: From the relevant UNSC resolution:
13.Reaffirms its readiness to consider promptly any reports of the OPCW
under Article VIII of the Chemical Weapons Convention, which provides for the
referral of cases of non-compliance to the United Nations Security Council;
14. Decides that Member States shall inform immediately the Security Council
of any violation of resolution 1540 (2004), including acquisition by non-State actors
of chemical weapons, their means of delivery and related materials in order to take
necessary measures therefore;
In other words, if you think anyone in Syria used chemical weapons, tell us (ie the UNSC) about it. Ya’ know, like the Chemical Weapons Convention says you should.
NOT: go ahead and start bombing if you think anyone in Syria used chemical weapons.
Adam L Silverman
@Adria McDowell (formerly Lurker Extraordinaire: Yes. Long day. Fat fingered typo. Have fixed it.
Villago Delenda Est
@Brachiator: The “this sends a message to Kim” has already been tweeted by some Rethug asshole.
Kropadope
Apologies, but I’m having a bit of trouble interpreting this sentence
@Adria McDowell (formerly Lurker Extraordinaire:
There’s close enough to a consensus on the right that when put with the left’s interventionists adds up to “enough of a consensus to, once again, get us mired in shit up to our waists.”
philadelphialawyer
@Baud: yw
eh, they can argue the aumf covers this too. but international law is another matter…
NotMax
@Brachiator
Also too, Netanyahu.
lamh36
hilts
@lamh36:
That’s our fucking media, a bunch of overpaid, useless dumbasses
Culture of Truth
@lamh36: Yep. all they needed was some bombings
Adam L Silverman
@lamh36: Ooopsie.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
Wow. This sounds serious. Tillerson might return his medal back to Putin Naaaah..
debbie
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
They don’t need to say a thing.
Adria McDowell (formerly Lurker Extraordinaire
@Kropadope: Being mired in shit is definitely no fun, but we do it time and again, don’t we? Le sigh.
Mnemosyne
@lamh36:
Oh, I’m sure it’s just a coincidence. Who among us hasn’t met with the Russians? It’s so hard to keep track of.
Adam L Silverman
@Baud: Actually the Iraqi government asked/invited us to assist them in fighting ISIL. The Syrian side is much, much more problematic.
Timurid
@Baud: Mainly ISIS stealing Al Qaeda’s brand. They have little else in common.
jl
@lamh36: As one who got several clearances including some weirdo high level ones, that is very unfortunate. In fact it is very bad. It is, or should be, a very bid deal for the poor little nepotite. I messed up on a form for one my security applications (carbon paper slipped, it was way back right out of college). It was fairly big deal, even though the guy in charge of my application said they knew exactly what happened, and happened often enough that they had a drill for it. But it was a big deal and considerable hassle, but a relatively calm, if lengthy, one. If I pulled something like that intentionally I think I’d have had everything yanked, and I would have been out of a job.
Mary G
@lamh36: Yep, we can expect to get the “America, love it or leave it,” and the “You’re a traitor because you don’t support the troops” stuff.
It’s exactly what Clinton did to AQ, lob in cruise missiles and Republicans spent the rest of his term criticizing him for not doing enough, and started a ground war as soon as they had an excuse. No, two ground wars, both of which we are still wasting our young men and women on.
Adam L Silverman
@philadelphialawyer: I’m aware. If you hadn’t noticed, I did not state this was a good idea. Nor did I say this was done under any form of legal cover. Whether under US law or international law. That wasn’t the point of the post. Nor of any of my comments.
BBA
@philadelphialawyer: You say that as if international law meant anything. Bush violated Article 8bis of the Rome Statute and nothing happened to him or any of his co-conspirators.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
#POPCORN
Villago Delenda Est
@Kropadope: Seems simple to me. We know how to fight Daesh, but we don’t (as we totally have fucked up in both Iraq and Afghanistan) know how to secure the peace one “major combat operations” cease. This was THE problem in Iraq all along; the deserting coward’s minions sabotaged the Pentagon’s planning for winning the peace; von Rumsfailed specifically prohibited post war planning by the Civil Affairs experts.
Cheeto-face has no clue about this, not one. McMaster and Mattis must know, but they’re understaffed and just scraping by and furthermore these things are surprises hatched in the Oval Office with no prior thought or consultation.
lamh36
@Adam L Silverman: IKR….but Cheeto Prez says forget about that…look at me all tough authorizing missiles…smh.
media too busy salivating over that sweet, sweet strike footage…smh
El Caganer
Is there any proof that this supposed poison gas attack actually happened? I don’t consider the White Helmets to be a particularly trustworthy news source.
Shalimar
@Adam L Silverman: The administration seems to want a war with Iran, not Syria, so I suspect the specific choice of a target with massive Iranian casualties was not an accident.
Ian G.
I’m glad you mentioned WWI, because as much as Nazism and the Second World War were a direct outgrowth of the failure to secure the peace after the war, at least 21st century Germany is among the least problematic places on Earth (I sometimes daydream about fleeing there to escape Trump). Ditto Austria. In contrasting, the partitioned remains of the Ottoman Empire continue to be disaster zones of ethnic hatred and violence and continue to be black holes into which this country pours blood and treasure.
We will never escape the shadow of the failed peace of the Great War.
philadelphialawyer
@Adam L Silverman: You said this:
I had just begun thinking through a report I’m working on in regard to how to set the conditions in Iraq and Syria to win the peace, not just the war, against ISIL.
Which sure sounds like you think we can win the peace, somehow.
I agree you did not state that this particular attack was legal, or even a good idea.
Adam L Silverman
@Ian G.: Perhaps if we live long enough…
patroclus
On the thread topic (i.e., WWI), I don’t think we’ll ever know whether U.S. intervention was a good thing. The guy who shot Archduke Ferdinand, before he died, clearly stated that he would never have done it if he knew what was going to result from it. The Congressmen who switched from long-time anti-interventionist positions (like Marvin Jones) to vote for it after the Zimmermann telegram was released and the Germans started unrestricted submarine warfare against unarmed merchant ships were also quoted as saying that they weren’t sure that they had done the right thing. The failure to ratify the Versailles treaties, the failure of the League and the break-up of all the old monarchies and states and the re-drawing of all the borders all stoked what was really continuous fighting which led to WWII. Which also never really ended – I’ve recently read a book called “The Fighting never Stopped” which is a lot like the book Adam recommends, only it focuses on the aftermath of WWII.
If all we do is lob 59 Tomahawks at an airfield, maybe we won’t get so mired in the quagmire. Maybe we’ll launch a diplomatic initiative. I fear that we won’t and we will get bogged down and that this isn’t ever going to end.
Villago Delenda Est
@Ian G.:
This, this, this. The Brits and the French REALLY screwed the pooch; the assumption was that the colonial empires would never fall, when in fact they were all but history 40 or so years after the various post Great War treaties were signed.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
@lamh36: Sounds like Bannon is leaking damaging material on Lolita’s BF
hilts
Adam,
Have you seen Michael Kazin’s NYT op-ed Should America Have Entered World War I?
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/06/opinion/should-america-have-entered-world-war-i.html?_r=0
NotMax
@Villago Delenda Est
As I recall, Rummy consigned State’s reports and plans to the circular file without so much as a glance at them.
jl
@philadelphialawyer: Maybe one sliver of silver lining right now, is that if the GOP feels they need to get rid of him for fear of the midterms, we have another valid charge to add to the indictment, bill of impeachment, whatever it is called.
Shalimar
@Villago Delenda Est: The message this sends to Kim is “really smart move by your dad accelerating your nuclear research so this won’t happen to you.”
Mnemosyne
@El Caganer:
There’s video footage if you’re morbid enough to Google it.
philadelphialawyer
@BBA: The US never ratified the Rome Statute.
I would also point out that violations of international law do matter, even if there is no effective punishment. The status of the US in the world is not entirely separate from its reputation for compliance with the rule of law.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
too many tweets to cut’n’paste, but my god it sounds like they’re all over the map. McMaster and Tillerson are contradicting each other, and in Tillerson’s case, himself. I haven’t seen any word from Mattis
efgoldman
@philadelphialawyer:
And Tangelo Torquemada knows or cares about international law, how and why?
khead
Holy shit MSNBC has a hard on for war. Mrs. Greenspan actually said “New sheriff in town”.
I haven’t seen anything from the other cable channels yet – was out celebrating my wife’s birthday – but I’m guessing those are even worse.
philadelphialawyer
@efgoldman: He doesn’t. But I do. And I think we as a country should. My reference to IL was prescriptive/normative. Not descriptive of Trump and Co.
Villago Delenda Est
@Shalimar: Aye; this was the message of the idiotic “Axis of Evil” meme. Iran, too, wants nukes as a deterrent against US aggression, and that’s precisely what the second Gulf War was. No major power since 1939 was so blatantly in violation of prohibitions against aggressive war.
Mnemosyne
@philadelphialawyer:
Adam spends a lot of his time writing up sensible reports about how we can stop fucking up overseas in the full knowledge that nobody in charge will pay attention to him.
jl
@Mnemosyne: Only attempt at denial I heard of in the news is from Russia and it’s pretty thin stuff. One, the whole thing was faked. I expect there will be solid evidence against that possibility soon. The other is that what really happened was that the rebels were storing sarin and a Syrian bombing raid blew it up and dispersed it. But I heard a technical expert this morning say that was almost impossible. Sarin is extremely corrosive so only its components are stored, and then mixed right before delivery. So almost impossible there were tanks of sarin lying around, or a bombing raid would have mixed the components in way that it would kill so many people.
Alternative Fax, a hip hop artist from Idaho
I’m calling it a night, but Malcolm Nance offered some unsettling observations. Since there were Republican Guard personnel at the base, the US faces potential blowback from Iran as well as Syria. Also some of the bunkers had VFX and Sarin, so accusations that civilians were harmed as a result of dispersal are also possible.
I may take a news-free day tomorrow. May you all be short on nightmares tonight.
philadelphialawyer
@Mnemosyne: That may be. But I am skeptical that there is any “sensible report” that anyone can produce that can lay out how we can “win the peace” in Iraq or Syria. Or Afghanistan or Libya either.
Kropadope
@Villago Delenda Est:
Well, if the best we can hope to accomplish is create a larger power vacuum, then we have no business getting involved. Even if the USA had a course of action available that would likely help the situation in Syria, I wouldn’t expect Hair Furor to properly identify and execute it.
debbie
@Adam L Silverman:
How are The Russians doing in Afghanistan fighting ISIS alongside the Taliban?
jl
@khead:
‘ Holy shit MSNBC has a hard on for war. Mrs. Greenspan actually said “New sheriff in town”.’
Those nice perky intrepid news media divas you see on TV are seriously depraved, aren’t they?
Adam L Silverman
@philadelphialawyer: I honestly do not know if we can. I’m trying to think through the problem sets and am not sure I’m even going to get to anything resembling a solution. At one level the exercise could be abstract enough to just go with: we need the equivalent of a Marshall Plan for Iraq and Syria, now plan backwards. But I don’t think that’s really of any real value to anyone. I’m not saying I have any real, or if I should come up with a real one, good answers to the strategic questions here. I am saying I’m trying to think my way through the issues and problem sets to see where that gets me. I’m not trying to think up knew or better ways to conduct a campaign. I am trying to think through how we might work with and support our local partners to reach a better outcome. To some extent the Iraqi side is considerably easier. The societal and sectarian divisions are clearer cut. The authorizations for us to be there are straight forward. Syria is what’s gnawing at me in a professional capacity. So I’m feeding it some brain cells.
debbie
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Should they really even be tweeting?
Adam L Silverman
@hilts: I did. It is a provocative piece.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@debbie: sorry– those are journalists’ tweets about what Tillerson, McMaster and various gov’t officials are making.
ETA: Steve Clemons very sensibly (to me) discussing how much more difficult this is going to be because trump insists on acting unilaterally.
jl
@debbie: How else are they going to get the boss’s attention? They can’t be running over to Hannity or Fox ‘n’ Friends every other minute.
khead
@jl:
Some nice lady on CNN just said – I’m paraphrasing a bit, but not that much – “Trump did it for the children”.
Omnes Omnibus
@philadelphialawyer: Who has suggested that we can?
Adam L Silverman
@debbie: I have no idea.
jl
@khead: Oh Lord. Thanks for the info, I guess. I better go away from the intertube blogs and news for a while before I start gagging up my dinner.
philadelphialawyer
@Adam L Silverman: I know you are in good faith, highly intelligent, and well informed. I just think the task is impossible. It is not in our power as a nation to stableize Iraq, which I agree is somewhat less screwed up than Syria. It is not a matter of “good answers” and “professional capacity.” And I see no reason to extend the illusion that if we, somehow, could just come up with the right “plan,” and implement it, we can make an inherently unstable polity half a world away, with an alien culture, and with large population segments that have every reason to hate us, solid enough so that we can be said to have “won the peace.”
Leave Iraq to the Iraqis. They got along fine without us for thousands of years. Much the same with Syria.
philadelphialawyer
@Omnes Omnibus: Adam Silverman.
“I had just begun thinking through a report I’m working on in regard to how to set the conditions in Iraq and Syria to win the peace, not just the war, against ISIL.”
Adria McDowell (formerly Lurker Extraordinaire
@Shalimar: A commenter over on LGM stated that CNN had an “expert” on who claimed that the Syrian planes escaped to Tehran.
Someone, somewhere is gonna use that as their WMD 2.0 excuse.
Kropadope
@philadelphialawyer: In fairness, saying that you’re working on a problem doesn’t mean that the problem necessarily has a solution.
philadelphialawyer
@Kropadope: Wow. That is some fine nit picking. But the hubris is in the trying.
efgoldman
@khead:
The dead ones? The refugees? The ones trying to live “normally” in free fire/free bombing zones? The ones who will die tomorrow and the next day and the next….
Mnemosyne
@philadelphialawyer:
Re-read #132 and stop digging. You look like an idiot right now.
efgoldman
@philadelphialawyer:
That ship sailed when France and Britain partitioned the Ottoman Empire with borders of convenience, having nothing whatsoever to do with ethnic, religious, or tribal integrity.
Timurid
@Alternative Fax, a hip hop artist from Idaho:
If we did kill a bunch of Revolutionary Guard or Hezbollah… those guys have much more capability for terror attacks against US interests, foreign or domestic, than the special ed kids from ISIS. Of course for Trump that may be a feature and not a bug.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Good god, Brian Williams’ attempts at what he seems to think is eloquence, folksy eloquence, is aggravating. And of all people to try to sound like a military expert…
philadelphialawyer
@Mnemosyne: Whatevs.
Kropadope
@philadelphialawyer: Hey, if he helps even a little bit, good on him. Give the man a prize.
And there are a lot of problems out there that people didn’t solve for ages. They didn’t arrive at a solution by not trying.
Another Scott
I noted this tweet downstairs:
Dumping $100M in ordnance on an airfield only makes sense if there is some sensible policy goal behind it. It is not at all clear that that is the case here. Assad going on TV to rally his troops and call Trump a “paper tiger” isn’t going to help the US’s standing in the world, and isn’t going to speed Assad’s departure.
Syria (and much of the Middle East) is a huge mess. Too many players are much more interested in perpetual war than in actually addressing the problems.
We know that Assad, like his father, has no qualms about killing tens of thousands of people, using any weapons he has available, to hold onto power. Craters in an air base aren’t going to change that.
I don’t know what the solution is, but I have little confidence that anything Trump does will put the region on the road toward ending the war(s).
As Attackerman (and Adam) says, it’s really easy to break things and blow up existing governments. It’s really, really hard (especially for outsiders) to put an effective government in its place.
Cheers,
Scott.
philadelphialawyer
@efgoldman: That ship may have sailed a long time ago. But what remains to be proven is that endless Western intervention is going to solve the problem that Western intervention caused in the first place.
philadelphialawyer
@Kropadope: Sometimes the best way to help is to respect other people’s autonomy, independence and ability to make decisions for themselves. And we are not talking about a math problem or tricky chess puzzle. Following a policy of non intervention is morally, legally and practically a better one, in my opinion, than the opposite. And that has nothing to do with how hard people work.
Omnes Omnibus
@philadelphialawyer: Wow, you make me defend Kropadope. He was on point.
amk
Mnemosyne
@philadelphialawyer:
I’m not the one who read the words, “I honestly do not know if we can” and went, See, he said he could solve it!
philadelphialawyer
@Omnes Omnibus: Right, as if this was some abstract “problem” that working on has no downside. There is no solution. There is no way for the US to “fix” what it “broke.” The sooner that reality is faced, the better.
philadelphialawyer
@Mnemosyne: Dude, he said he was working on a “report” for winning the peace. I think that is impossible, and hubristic. Quibble all you want about the disclaimers….
amk
Kropadope
@philadelphialawyer:
Hey, I’m with you, buddy. I think getting involved in Syria is a fool’s errand. However, given that interventionists always seem to get their way AND given that the non-intervention ship appears to have sailed, I’m perfectly happy to have someone at least attempting to answer the question “how can we make this better?”
There are billions of people in this world, we can spare a few minds to this question. Besides which, if people earnestly trying to come up with an answer to that question conclusively arrive at an answer of “we can’t,” doesn’t that help bolster the argument for non-intervention?
Omnes Omnibus
@amk: Well, of course not.
chopper
@amk:
well, duh. anybody actually think that chucking threescore tomahawks at an airfield is gonna accomplish anything like that?
Timurid
@amk: So more bombing. And more tearful babble about Syrian kids who will never live to have their school lunches taken away.
Mike J
“You should not in any way extrapolate that [the strikes] changed our policy or posture on Syria in any way.”
smintheus
Whatever Wilson may have wanted in 1918, he had no power to achieve it among the allies, especially Britain and France, who were not trying to “secure the peace”. They were aiming to (a) settle scores with the defeated, and (b) expand their global dominance. They scoffed at Wilson’s utopianism. There were almost no voices in London or Paris advising moderation or “peace securing”. The talk was all about grabbing everything that might be grabbed, as quickly as possible.
So it’s not clear that there are important parallels to the current conflicts apart from the obvious big one: foreigner powers are once again getting involved in trying to carve up areas of the Middle East to their liking.
Mike J
@Timurid: There a lot of kids on the airbase?
lamh36
Steve in the ATL
Good lord there’s a lot of tedious head butting tonight. Reminds me of law school when no one would ever concede a point or allow anyone else to have the last word.
In better news, the flight crew just showed up and got a standing ovation from the crowd.
Buuuuuuut not leaving until 1:47 am.
chopper
@Kropadope:
to be fair to phillylawyer, there’s a big difference between “how do we make this better” and “how do we win the peace”. the latter seems to me to be an idiotic concept, like “how can I unfuck this chicken?”
chopper
by the way, “how do I unfuck this chicken” was rick perry’s senior thesis in “animal science” at college.
Timurid
@Mike J: Referring to Trump’s statements about kids killed by Assad. As in Trump doesn’t give a fuck about kids, any kids, unless it benefits him.
efgoldman
@Steve in the ATL:
Given your luck, I expect some small problem with the aircraft, and fixing it will take JUST long enough that the crew will have timed out.
Also: I seem to remember in the deep dark past, an agreement between the Port Authority (which owns/runs the airport) and the East Boston neighborhood, severely limiting takeoffs after 1100pm. No, I’m not joking.
chopper
@Timurid:
i’m doing this for the children! still no refugees tho. fuck them.
hilts
@khead:
This is nothing new under the sun.
Don’t forget babbling idiot Chris Matthews lobbied his bosses at MSNBC to fire Phil Donahue because he opposed the Iraq war.
Omnes Omnibus
@philadelphialawyer: And he could end up saying “it ain’t possible.”
Steve in the ATL
@efgoldman: there would be a riot if someone tried to pull that. A riot of really tired middle aged white guys, but a riot nonetheless.
Kropadope
@chopper: If shooting for the stars only gets you to the moon, I’m OK with that. And his working concept for “how do we win the peace,” to my understanding, sounds multilateral and involving the legitimately interested parties. I think his heart’s in the right place and it’s not as though he’s personally setting our Syria policy. Cut him some slack.
Steve in the ATL
And Legal Seafood’s tv’s were evenly split between hockey and Fox News. Wtf?
Mnemosyne
@Steve in the ATL:
It feels like there are a lot of lefty isolationists desperately trying to convince themselves that Hillary would have been worse. Pro tip: she wouldn’t have been. Trump is and always was worse, and all of his maunderings about staying out of problems overseas were lies, as I kept trying to tell these morons.
Trump was ALWAYS going to be more hawkish than Hillary. Anyone who thought differently was lying to themselves.
Kropadope
@Steve in the ATL:
So the only kind of riot that may see its demands met?
efgoldman
@Mnemosyne:
EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAIIIIIIIIIIIIILLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLZZZZZZ
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Barry McCaffrey calling for a hot (short) war to destroy the Syrian air force.
Omnes Omnibus
@Kropadope: Moi, I tend to be liberal interventionist and I think this was a bad idea. I apply just war theory and see how it comes out before saying okay to something. I don’t see how this fits.
Steve in the ATL
@Kropadope: fair point! You don’t mess with middle aged white guys, and I’ll bet we all have medallion status which makes us totally badass
efgoldman
@Steve in the ATL:
But think of all the new clients you’d have!
Adam L Silverman
@Kropadope: Don’t we have three years until the next RNC national convention?
Timurid
@Steve in the ATL: They’re only blowing up the whole fucking world at the moment. I wouldn’t mess with them either…
Steve in the ATL
I assume the other Georgians have long since gone to bed, but I’m reminded of a book by Atlanta newspaperman Lewis Grizzard entitled “if I ever get back to Georgia I’m gonna nail my feet to the ground”
Thru the Looking Glass...
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
What could go wrong?
Kropadope
@Adam L Silverman: They gotta keep themselves busy until then somehow. Trump’s president, so as far as most of them are concerned, all is right with the world.
@Steve in the ATL:
What that?
Thru the Looking Glass...
@Adam L Silverman: Three of the longest years of your life…
bluehill
Funny to read all the tweets from repubs warning Obama about what Trump just did. Wonder if this will change their view of Middle East invention and Clinton’s use of cruise missiles against al-Qaeda and Iraq.
So Trump warned the Russians. I wonder if Assad is realizing how quickly Putin will abandon him if it means keeping Trump in power. If he’s interested in self-preservation, Assad should consider a nice vacation home in Iran.
From a purely cold political view, each broken Trump promise hopefully will peel off a few more Trump voters.
Steve in the ATL
@efgoldman: a guy I was drinking with earlier (at Lucky’s!) has a commercial door business in New Hampshire and is having labor trouble. He wanted my card, but alas I am in house and can’t freelance union bust. FML!
chopper
@Kropadope:
if and only if he titles his report “how can I unfuck this chicken”. maybe then.
goblue72
Here’s an alternative. F**k the War Dept. F**k the US military war machine. F**k “grand theory” jagoffs. F**k anyone trying to make lemonade out of this.
There are those who oppose this unconditionally on one side. And on the other side is everyone else – who will be proven completely wrong in time (just like they were completely wrong about Iraq AND Afghanistan). I don’t expect them to learn anything. They all should be doing one thing this time around and that’s STFU. (And I fully expect the hippies to be sneered at for being “naive” and not being serious “grown-ups”.)
And I see Clinton got up on stage today and demonstrated precisely why she lost.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Mike J
@Omnes Omnibus:
I’m kinda ok with it, as long as it is limited to this strike. It seems proportionate. Take out 20-30 planes at the airbase that carried out the war crime.
The funny thing is, if warmonger Hitlery had been elected, I don’t think there would have been an attack tonight, because I don’t think there would have been a gas attack the other day. Trump already told Assad he had no interest in their squabble and green-lit everything.
Steve in the ATL
@goblue72: maybe I’m too tired to think straight, but I agree with your entire post
Kropadope
@chopper:
Will you settle for working title pending peer review?
efgoldman
@Thru the Looking Glass…:
I gotta’ assume Syria, being a Russian client state, uses Russian arms and aircraft. So, Barry, you’re so fucking smart, which ones do we takeout and how do we know the difference.
This asshole was a fucking general? What, did he graduate from the academy one place behind Grandpa Walnuts?
Kropadope
@goblue72:
I oppose war in Syria unconditionally, but I’ll take the folk who oppose it conditionally as part of my coalition. Hell, I’ll accept the mostly doubters and on-the-fencers I can get.
Omnes Omnibus
@goblue72: Fuck off. And I think this attack was wrong.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@efgoldman: he says straight up, it will result in US casualties and conflict with Russia and Iran
@Omnes Omnibus: Dwight called for the assassination of police officers, by other people, of course. His commitment to non-violence is… questionable.
Mnemosyne
@goblue72:
You just keep telling yourself that Hillary totally would have been worse and Trump is going to become the isolationist of your dreams any day now.
You wanted Anyone But Hillary as president, and you got exactly what you wanted. Congratulations.
Howard Beale IV
Eric the Fruit Bat over at LGF thinks that Trump’s launching the Tomahawks into Syria is the kayfabe to end all kayfabes.
Kropadope
@Mike J:
Quoted for
truthsolid inductive reasoning.efgoldman
@Kropadope:
Sure. You can find the president’s peers at any kindergarten in the country.
Fair Economist
@Mike J:
That would have been nice, but Trump told the Syrians’ ally Russia (unlike our own allies or the State Department) and the planes apparently flew to Iran.
This was just theatre. Not intended to do anything.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
So Donny lobbed some missiles into an airbase to do exactly what? As it’s been pointed out, the planes were in Iran. This to show the MAGA we’re winning? Maybe give the Russians a good look at our current cruise missile capabilities?
This seems less like wag the dog and more like dog chases car.
Thru the Looking Glass...
@efgoldman: Yup… that was totally, utterly, and completely the point of my snark…
Hell… as far as I remember, Obummer made Syria destroy its cache of WMD at one point, correct?
So either ASSad lied and kept some of them… OR… somebody helped him reconstitute his weapons programs…
Hmmm… I wonder which one is right?
And even if ASSad simply hid some, I find it IMPOSSIBLE to believe that he didn’t have some sort of approval from the Russians to use that shite…
Just sayin’…
Perhaps ASSad simply found the WMD that Hussein spirited away in the middle of the night…
Omnes Omnibus
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Hence my “fuck off.”
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Omnes Omnibus: I figured. I just like to remind everyone what Dwight is, and remind Dwight that some of us remember.
chopper
@Kropadope:
make ernie anastos second author and you’ve got a deal!
Adam L Silverman
@Kropadope: I didn’t support the invasion of Iraq in 2003. I thought, based on what was being reported, which has now been confirmed, that the planning was poorly done, that the national strategy and the theater strategy were a mess. And as was pretty clear to most folks at the time, the arguments were themselves bogus. But when the opportunity came to go and use my knowledge, skills, and abilities to try to make things a little better doing tactical and operational level work I did. There were a number of personal and a few professional reasons for that.
The problem we have is that there is no serious potential candidate for President, from either side of wherever we’ve decided the center is on any given day, that is not going to be an interventionist. Whether soft to hard. And, unfortunately, we’ve seen a long, sustained erosion of Congress’s powers, or perhaps better stated, willingness to exercise their powers in these matters to rein the President in. This is the America we live in. I have been arguing since 2013 for a policy of containment, management, and mitigation via our local partners. Supporting them and helping them to help themselves rather than more military power. All told I’ve written several hundred pages that all drive to this. That seek to delineate the complexities in the related and overlapping problem sets – social, societal, religious, political, economic, ethno-national, sectarian, etc – so that decision makers have the fullest possible understanding of just what it is they’re dealing with.
I’m not disagreeing with either you or philadelphialawyer that the people of Iraq or Syria have to work these problems out for themselves. That if we do it for them we’re going to get the same results we got as a result of Operation Iraqi Freedom where as soon as we left the Iraqis decided to settle their lingering scores. Setting conditions doesn’t mean kinetic and lethal action. It doesn’t mean using military power. Or it doesn’t only mean these things. It does mean using diplomatic, information, and economic power to set these conditions as well. And often, and if done right, it excludes using any significant amount of military power, let alone military power at all. It may just mean trying to get everyone to the negotiating table and keeping them there. Or providing the Jordanians and the Lebanese enough foreign aid so they aren’t buried under the refugee crisis. And it certainly means taking more refugees and leading by example on that issue. And it most certainly means exercising a type of leadership that puts our local allies in the driver seat with us providing support, whether it is diplomatically or economically or, if it comes to it, militarily.
Thru the Looking Glass...
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: Distract from his Russian problem in this country… hell, tweeting about Obama wiretapping him didn’t work… might as well try something else… I wonder how many of the crowd wearing MAGA hats could even find Syria on a map…
Omnes Omnibus
@goblue72: Use the word “fuck,” you prude.
Adam L Silverman
@goblue72: I love you too!
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Thru the Looking Glass…:
This stuff is pretty low tech now when you get down now. Just need a insecticide plant to make it.
Mike J
@Fair Economist: I haven’t seen the flew to Russia story from anyone but you. Is that a keyhole in your pocket or are you just happy to see me?
We’ll see way more pics of the bombed airbase than we want to by tomorrow. Until then I’m not believe that it was perfect and surgical or that it was completely botched.
Thru the Looking Glass...
@Adam L Silverman: And after this commercial break, a bit about flying pigs…
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@goblue72: Seriously dude, life isn’t a Che T shirt. You need more than black and white to understand things.
Kropadope
@chopper:
I’m just the self-appointed middle-man here, but I’m all for it if Adam agrees.
Adam L Silverman
@Thru the Looking Glass…: I’m not following. Please clarify.
Adria McDowell (formerly Lurker Extraordinaire
@efgoldman: How very fucking dare you. Kindergarteners are much smarter than Dolt 45. ;-)
Steve in the ATL
Boarding the plane! Farewell, bean town. Hope I don’t see you again for a while.
Thru the Looking Glass...
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: Easy to make or not, I still find it hard to believe he didn’t have some sort of approval from the Russians to do something like that…
Thru the Looking Glass...
@Adam L Silverman: Sorry…
Your comment made so much sense… I’m just so used to good ideas and smart people being ignored…
In other words, ideas like you laid out will be taken seriously as soon as pigs learn to fly…
Omnes Omnibus
We can’t walk away.
Kropadope
@Steve in the ATL:
Nothing personal, but it seems almost obligatory to assert that the feeling is mutual.
Shalimar
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: If the planes really did have enough warning to escape to Iran, isn’t that a pretty strong indication that Russia passed on our notification to the Syrians?
Steve in the ATL
@Kropadope: and don’t you dare mention the super bowl!
Adam L Silverman
@Thru the Looking Glass…: They’re not ignored. But ultimately the people they are for don’t have the final say.
Kropadope
@Steve in the ATL: IDGAF about the Super Bowl, but now that you mention it…
Thru the Looking Glass...
@Adam L Silverman: It just seems so many times, what could and would work doesn’t get the chance it deserves… we’ve been fighting in the ME for how many years now?
And what sort of new round of horrors will today’s events kick off?
Kropadope
@Adam L Silverman: Well, you said it all. I’d say my work here is done if not for the fact that Netflix alone can’t hold my attention and the late night Halo Wars players are too good.
GregB
The fuse is lit. Little Donnie now knows he can use the militsry and mete out death on a whim.
He will be hooked on the power.
Now he’a gonna tell Ji Xinpeng that if doesn’t stop Kin Jong Un, he’ll do it.
Cue The Doors.
amk
and the war porn begins.
Adam L Silverman
@amk: I was in the room the first time Brian Williams told his Iraq story. It was less than a month after it happened. He told it to suck up to the retired 4 star that was in charge of the conference. I was seated less than 15 feet from where Williams was standing and about 20 from the screen where he was showing the accompanying photos. I seem to recall at some point the sucking up was so staggering that I dropped my dessert spoon and got cake on the cuff of my trousers.
Thru the Looking Glass...
@Adam L Silverman:
My point exactly in the above comment…
efgoldman
@Adam L Silverman:
Of course it does; and while details may differ, any logical, thoughtful, informed people would be doing that.
You see the problem, right?
Kropadope
@Adam L Silverman: I don’t know if this story’s true and have no way of verifying, but I will continue to believe in it because” don’t let the truth get in the way of a good story.”
In fact, I honestly hope it’s not true because irony is oh so delicious.
efgoldman
@Adria McDowell (formerly Lurker Extraordinaire:
Only the five year olds. The fours are right in his wheelhouse.
Adam L Silverman
@Kropadope: It is true. The first night banquet at the USMA West Point 50th Senior Conference in June 2003. It was the kickoff event for the newly opened Combatting Terrorism Center.
efgoldman
@Adam L Silverman:
And I’ll bet the crease was so sharp it could cut a 2×4.
Kropadope
@Adam L Silverman: C’est la vie. And I was wrong, that does make it more interesting. Also, I think Looking glass has the right read on Brian Williams WRT war porn.
Nevertheless, we should totally be in the business of making up embarrassing Brian Williams stories.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@philadelphialawyer: Psst, Mnemo ain’t no dude.
Adam L Silverman
@Kropadope: What was sad was as bad as the brown nosing was with the original telling, the way the story changed and metastasized over the years into what got him kicked off the nightly news was just pathetic. It was bad enough when it was done to suck up to someone who really couldn’t do much for Williams one way or the other. It became worse when it because about self aggrandizing Brian Williams.
amk
@Thru the Looking Glass…: This whole thing was about that and the fifth columnist msm will gladly oblige him. The dead syrian kids were a convenient cover.
Kropadope
@Adam L Silverman:
The natural pattern of the braggart.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
ETA: about 75% Republican
Kropadope
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
It’s 2017, Mnemo can be whatever she wants.
Villago Delenda Est
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: IOKIYAR
Adam L Silverman
@efgoldman: I was in a suit and tie.
Thru the Looking Glass...
@amk: That is what I am afraid of…
Back when Trump got elected, I was making jokes about him awarding himself medals… the jokes don’t seem so far-fetched or funny now…
Who could Trump find to award him a medal? It’d have to be a leader whose stature would be equal to his own… someone seen as an absolute autocrat in his own country… perhaps a country w/ a nuclear arsenal as.. uh… ‘big’ as Donnie’s…
Mnemosyne
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
Aw, man, you blew my cover! ?
Next thing I know, you’ll tell everyone that I have cats. Or that I love Hamilton.
joel hanes
@Omnes Omnibus:
Sixty cruise missiles? The fuck?
THE DONALD : That Kim boy down the street thinks he’s something because he gets to set off rockets.
Ha. I’ll show him. Thirty.
No, four … make it FIFTY of our best rockets. The best ones.
And be sure to get film ….
Who? I dunno. Who are we mad at?
amk
and of course, paul, the pansy, has no problem with it.
Ruckus
@philadelphialawyer:
These clowns don’t need a case, don’t have any morals, and aren’t doing this because there is any justification.
This is US politics, plain and simple. It’s red meat to the hungry.
amk
beebs
Villago Delenda Est
@amk: Yeah, right, Vlad. More like distracting the vermin of the Village from the very real story of Russian interference in the US Presidential election to install his puppet, the tiny-fingered shitgibbon, in the White House.
Villago Delenda Est
@Ruckus: Exactly so. Might makes right. Worked for Hitler, works for Donald.
gene108
People have brought up Clinton’s use of cruise missiles in 1998. The big difference is Clinton had a goal in mind, with his attack: To kill Osama bin Laden.
From what I heard about the attack, we just missed him, in Afghanistan by an hour or so and hit the base he had been at after he left.
I have no idea what the objective of this attack is or how it fits into any broader strategy. From the reactions of guys like Tillerson, I am not sure people in this Administration understand exactly why this was done.
Edit: One reason I can think of is Obama didn’t attack, when Assad used chemical weapons years ago and Donnie think this’ll finally give him one up on Obama.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Mnemosyne: Wait, you love Hamilton?
Raven Onthill
I am put in mind of a remark Orwell made about Gandhi:
If one wants peace and prosperity these have to be the goals of policy: violence can at most be an adjunct and, I think, an unreliable one.
Raven Onthill
Another thought: for some time now I have been saying that in the interconnected world, all war is civil war, with people on both sides of the conflict on both sides of the borders.
TenguPhule
Wonderful, we’re at war with Syria.
Debbie(aussie)
@Raven Onthill:
I am a citizen of planet earth and a member of the human race.
badsanta
@GregB:
https://youtu.be/JSUIQgEVDM4
CM
@gene108:
You write: “I have no idea what the objective of this attack is or how it fits into any broader strategy… Edit: One reason I can think of is Obama didn’t attack, when Assad used chemical weapons years ago and Donnie think this’ll finally give him one up on Obama.”
Irony number 1: Trump is on record in numerous tweets as opposing — in the STRONGEST LANGUAGE using the BEST WORDS — any military intervention by Obama in Syria.
Irony number 2: Obama arranged with Russia to get Assad to give up chemical weapons; therefore, Trump had a chance to show just what an improved relationship with Russia could do in this case by going back to Russia and getting his buddy Putin to deal with a violation of that agreement, but Hair Furor dropped trou and took a gigantic dump (in the form of 60 cruise missiles) on that possibility.
Steve in the ATL
I am once again, finally, in the ATL. And this airport looks like a refugee camp. People sleeping everywhere, swaddled in red delta blankets.
If I were catholic I’d be furious with the patron saint of travelers.
amk
a scummy ass kisser.
Hkedi [Kang T. Q.]
@Villago Delenda Est: I’m thinking that Putin is beginning to think “oh S***! he’s too stupid to be maneuvered! I should have just made Hillary’s life miserable as president!”
amk
Patricia Kayden
@hilts: Wow. I didn’t know that. So he’s always been a douche.
raven
From Pat Lang
Donald Trump’s decision to launch cruise missile strikes on a Syrian Air Force Base was based on a lie. In the coming days the American people will learn that the Intelligence Community knew that Syria did not drop a military chemical weapon on innocent civilians in Idlib. Here is what happened:
The Russians briefed the United States on the proposed target. This is a process that started more than two months ago. There is a dedicated phone line that is being used to coordinate and deconflict (i.e., prevent US and Russian air assets from shooting at each other) the upcoming operation.
The United States was fully briefed on the fact that there was a target in Idlib that the Russians believes was a weapons/explosives depot for Islamic rebels.
The Syrian Air Force hit the target with conventional weapons. All involved expected to see a massive secondary explosion. That did not happen. Instead, smoke, chemical smoke, began billowing from the site. It turns out that the Islamic rebels used that site to store chemicals, not sarin, that were deadly. The chemicals included organic phosphates and chlorine and they followed the wind and killed civilians.
There was a strong wind blowing that day and the cloud was driven to a nearby village and caused casualties.
We know it was not sarin. How? Very simple. The so-called “first responders” handled the victims without gloves. If this had been sarin they would have died. Sarin on the skin will kill you. How do I know? I went through “Live Agent” training at Fort McClellan in Alabama.
Uncle Cosmo
@goblowagoat: Assholier-than-thou, as usual for you.
Another Scott
@raven: I don’t know about you, but I’ve become very suspicious over the years of “obvious” explanations like that.
BBC:
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.