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You are here: Home / Elections / Election 2018 / I’m going to Wichita

I’m going to Wichita

by DougJ|  April 11, 20179:34 pm| 191 Comments

This post is in: Election 2018

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The race in Kansas-4 is very close so far. You can check the returns here.

I’m following Harry Enten’s analysis on twitter and it sounds like we are headed for something between a razor-thin Democratic win and a 10 point Republican win. Even the latter would be a huge swing from the election when Trump won the district by 27 points.

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Reader Interactions

191Comments

  1. 1.

    Baud

    April 11, 2017 at 9:34 pm

    Booman is being pissy about this race.

  2. 2.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    April 11, 2017 at 9:37 pm

    Don’t forget off cycle elections favor republicans. so beating the 27% spread would be even more significant given the playing field is tilted in their favor.

  3. 3.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    April 11, 2017 at 9:38 pm

    Trump won the district by 27 points.

    there’s that number, again.

  4. 4.

    PaulWartenberg

    April 11, 2017 at 9:38 pm

    Right now 9:39 pm according to NYTimes with 32 percent of precincts in Thompson is barely up 50.5 over Estes 47.8. Are the larger precincts more Republican than Democrat to where we should expect a huge swing to Estes?

  5. 5.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    April 11, 2017 at 9:43 pm

    Dave Weigel‏@daveweigel 1h1 hour ago

    It’s pretty clear that latte-sipping Wichita voters need to leave their bubble and understand the real America. #ks04

    16 replies 162 retweets 612 likes

  6. 6.

    Doug!

    April 11, 2017 at 9:44 pm

    Far from this opera forevermore.

  7. 7.

    Doug!

    April 11, 2017 at 9:44 pm

    @David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch:

    Ha ha

  8. 8.

    Mnemosyne

    April 11, 2017 at 9:46 pm

    I guess tonight is when we find out what’s the matter with Kansas.

    Oh, come on, you know you guys were thinking it.

  9. 9.

    EBT

    April 11, 2017 at 9:46 pm

    This will be a loss, but significantly closer than it would be any other year.

  10. 10.

    Cookie monster

    April 11, 2017 at 9:48 pm

    Kansas SOS site has more up to date results.

  11. 11.

    Corner Stone

    April 11, 2017 at 9:48 pm

    @PaulWartenberg: He’s going to lose by 15 or so. If some how he holds it down to single digits that would be nuts.

  12. 12.

    JPL

    April 11, 2017 at 9:49 pm

    It’s amazing that it is this close, and I hope that means the GA 6th district can flip. News about the 6th, the mayor decides where to open early voting, and in Roswell that meant a library on the east side. It just so happens to be Handel’s district, and the area of someone running for council that he supports. This week the local library was open for both elections but not with the proper equipment, so lines were long.

  13. 13.

    patroclus

    April 11, 2017 at 9:49 pm

    Cool – a separate thread! 49-49 now; very tight!

  14. 14.

    SFAW

    April 11, 2017 at 9:52 pm

    @Cookie monster:

    Kansas SOS site has more up to date results.

    The trade-off is that you get to see Kris “Non-whites think they get to vote? Fuck THAT shit!” Kobach’s grinning mug

  15. 15.

    schrodingers_cat

    April 11, 2017 at 9:52 pm

    WTH is a latte liberal? Who likes milky coffee, anyway?

  16. 16.

    JPL

    April 11, 2017 at 9:52 pm

    @Corner Stone: He’ll lose but not by that much, imo. It appears that less populated areas haven’t reported yet, unless I’m reading the sos site wrong.

  17. 17.

    PaulWartenberg

    April 11, 2017 at 9:54 pm

    there’s reportedly a problem in one county where they miscounted. so here comes the long delay of a recount?

  18. 18.

    patroclus

    April 11, 2017 at 9:54 pm

    48-50 (about 970 down). We’re probably going to lose, but this one should have been called 2 hours ago when the polls closed, so it’s still a good sign.

  19. 19.

    JPL

    April 11, 2017 at 9:54 pm

    Will this be the biggest Trump win ever?? It was his robo calls that drove it over the top..

  20. 20.

    schrodingers_cat

    April 11, 2017 at 9:56 pm

    @JPL: Can he dial with those tiny digits?

  21. 21.

    Baud

    April 11, 2017 at 9:57 pm

    A minor loss now will hopefully sow the seed for a wave election in 2018.

  22. 22.

    JPL

    April 11, 2017 at 9:58 pm

    @schrodingers_cat: That’s why he keeps Ivanka close by.

  23. 23.

    Mnemosyne

    April 11, 2017 at 9:58 pm

    @PaulWartenberg:

    there’s reportedly a problem in one county where they miscounted. so here comes the long delay of a recount?

    News like that in a Republican-controlled state makes me assume that the Democrat won, so they’re going to “recount” until they get the desired result.

  24. 24.

    rikyrah

    April 11, 2017 at 9:59 pm

    Trump won by 27 points.
    Pompeo won by 31 points.

    this is literally the home of KOCH INDUSTRIES

  25. 25.

    GregB

    April 11, 2017 at 10:02 pm

    @schrodingers_cat:

    That is the wingnut pejorative about liberals being snobby, book reading, education getting, degree having, Volvo and Prius driving, quiche, scone, croissant eating, latte drinking, soft and squishy NPR listening, intellectual elitists.

  26. 26.

    japa21

    April 11, 2017 at 10:02 pm

    Estes is starting to pull away, if a 3 point lead with 61% reported can be considered pulling away. I expect the final result to be less than 10.

  27. 27.

    Baud

    April 11, 2017 at 10:03 pm

    @GregB: I fit some of those things.

  28. 28.

    MomSense

    April 11, 2017 at 10:03 pm

    @Cookie monster:

    Wow. Fewer than 2000 votes separating them right now.

  29. 29.

    SFAW

    April 11, 2017 at 10:04 pm

    Not that it matters much, by the FTFNYT site is a few minutes ahead of FTF Kobach’s site

  30. 30.

    japa21

    April 11, 2017 at 10:07 pm

    Ill be honest. It would surprise me if there a few (meaning several) precincts being held in reserve to see just how many votes Estes needs to win. What is the Kansas equivalent of Waukesha County?

  31. 31.

    Omnes Omnibus

    April 11, 2017 at 10:11 pm

    @japa21: I will point out again that the Waukesha incident was exhaustively investigated. I’ve posted the links multiple times. No one held back votes.

  32. 32.

    japa21

    April 11, 2017 at 10:15 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus: Okay. I understand. Thank you for reminding me. As a former resident of Waukesha County, I am relieved.

  33. 33.

    schrodingers_cat

    April 11, 2017 at 10:16 pm

    @Baud: Me 2. Why are liberals supposed to like French stuff?

  34. 34.

    ThresherK

    April 11, 2017 at 10:17 pm

    C’mon, Ross. Say something good about Auschwitz; we all know you’re itching to show us how smug and non-PC you are.

  35. 35.

    Omnes Omnibus

    April 11, 2017 at 10:17 pm

    @japa21: It was GOP incompetence, not evil. That time. The voter suppression now? Evil.

  36. 36.

    patroclus

    April 11, 2017 at 10:18 pm

    @japa21: Yeah, unfortunately, a 2200 vote lead now and it’s been growing. Unless Wichita precincts are out, this one’s probably over. Thompson needed a bigger early vote advantage to hold on to this – hopefully, we’ll do better in Georgia.

  37. 37.

    japa21

    April 11, 2017 at 10:21 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus: Evil and incompetence can go hand in hand. It is just that the incomptenece was the driving force at that time.

  38. 38.

    japa21

    April 11, 2017 at 10:22 pm

    @patroclus: It will end up around 10%. If this had been on the radar screen earlier, there might have been a chance.

  39. 39.

    patroclus

    April 11, 2017 at 10:22 pm

    46-52; 5800 deficit. Oh well…

  40. 40.

    jacy

    April 11, 2017 at 10:22 pm

    @GregB:

    Well, I do like a good scone and drive a Volvo. But I only listen to NPR if I’m forced to by my children……

  41. 41.

    Omnes Omnibus

    April 11, 2017 at 10:22 pm

    @japa21: That is what I meant, yes.

  42. 42.

    dmsilev

    April 11, 2017 at 10:24 pm

    @schrodingers_cat: I think that was a Bush-era thing. Remember when we were supposed to hate the French because they were soft on terrorists for some reason? Freedom fries and all that?

    Also, John Kerry spoke French, so in 2004 it was the Worst Thing Ever.

  43. 43.

    schrodingers_cat

    April 11, 2017 at 10:26 pm

    @dmsilev: I remember Freedumb fries.

  44. 44.

    chris

    April 11, 2017 at 10:26 pm

    Wiki says Kansas has 2.911 million people. So far 85,000ish have voted.
    So much for democracy.

  45. 45.

    Marcopolo

    April 11, 2017 at 10:26 pm

    I’d just like to remind folks that this is a deep deep deep red district. Pompeo routinely won re-election by 30 points. Losing by any margin up to 10 points is a shockwave statement to the Republican Party. If Democrats across the country picked up 15-20 points in their races in 2018 we are looking at 50+ seats picked up in the house.

    We’ll have to see how things play out over the next 18 months, but whether we win or lose tonight is a big statement of where voter sentiment & enthusiasm are right now.

  46. 46.

    Adam L Silverman

    April 11, 2017 at 10:26 pm

    @Baud:

    Specials can be predictive. Read here to understand how/what KS-4 can tell us about national environment/2018. https://t.co/JUPZMU0ilD pic.twitter.com/fq8DxvPLx2

    — (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) April 12, 2017

  47. 47.

    GregB

    April 11, 2017 at 10:27 pm

    @chris:

    It is a House district. Not the entire state.

  48. 48.

    SiubhanDuinne

    April 11, 2017 at 10:27 pm

    @JPL:

    the mayor decides where to open early voting, and in Roswell that meant a library on the east side. It just so happens to be Handel’s district, and the area of someone running for council that he supports.

    Fucking coincidence, how does it work?

    Did you see my mini-rant about the GA Dems who can’t seem to get their act quite together for the volunteer Voter Protection poll watchers?

  49. 49.

    Marcopolo

    April 11, 2017 at 10:28 pm

    @japa21: if this had been on the radar screen earlier it would probably have been nationalized (Estes vs Pelosi) and I doubt we would have done better.

  50. 50.

    amk

    April 11, 2017 at 10:29 pm

    @chris: How many voters in that district?

  51. 51.

    chris

    April 11, 2017 at 10:31 pm

    @GregB: I know, I was being a little hyperbolic. (Vote early and often!) But Wichita has 380,000 people; looks like most of ’em stayed home.

    Edit

  52. 52.

    Mnemosyne

    April 11, 2017 at 10:32 pm

    @dmsilev:

    France refused to help us invade Iraq because they thought it was a dumbass thing to do. And they were right.

  53. 53.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    April 11, 2017 at 10:33 pm

    Matthew Yglesias‏@mattyglesias 42m42 minutes ago

    Problem for Dems in #KS04 is the DCCC didn’t even bother to bus in any illegals.

    29 replies 135 retweets 650 likes

  54. 54.

    Adam L Silverman

    April 11, 2017 at 10:33 pm

    And the next shoe drops!

    https://t.co/SA34DAOEYS

    — JΞSŦΞR ✪ ΔCŦUAL³³º¹ (@th3j35t3r) April 12, 2017

  55. 55.

    amk

    April 11, 2017 at 10:34 pm

    @chris: The vote total so far is over 80,000 per KS sos site. Still low, as you say.

  56. 56.

    RandyG

    April 11, 2017 at 10:34 pm

    @amk:
    Total vote count in KS04 2016 house race: 275,251. Today’s number will come in at 110-120,000. Hmmmmm……

  57. 57.

    pk

    April 11, 2017 at 10:34 pm

    also need to consider that anti-brownback may be in play as well as anti-trump

  58. 58.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    April 11, 2017 at 10:35 pm

    Brian Kemm‏ @BrianKemm 8m8 minutes ago

    #KS04 going from -27 to -6 in five months is certainly telling. GOP is a failure, people finally coming to realize that.

    1 reply 6 retweets 11 likes

  59. 59.

    JPL

    April 11, 2017 at 10:35 pm

    @Marcopolo: That’s what I think. If it is within ten points, they don’t stay home next time.

  60. 60.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    April 11, 2017 at 10:36 pm

    Earl Blumenauer‏ @repblumenauer 8m8 minutes ago

    Tonight shows that we can compete in every district and NO Republican is safe #KS04

    4 replies 20 retweets 57 likes

  61. 61.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    April 11, 2017 at 10:37 pm

    Gabriel Sherman‏@gabrielsherman

    James Murdoch wants O’Reilly taken off the air for good, 2 sources say

    147 replies 1,063 retweets 1,656 likes

    No Money, Mo Problems

  62. 62.

    remima

    April 11, 2017 at 10:38 pm

    According to TFNYT, only 127 of 257 Sedgwick county (basically Wichita) precincts have reported so far. I’m not giving up hope for my hometown quite yet.

    But I also wouldn’t be at all surprised if the delay in reporting the majority of precincts in the county is intentional. Kansas judges have refused to allow researchers to access the voting machine ballot tapes.

    /

  63. 63.

    Omnes Omnibus

    April 11, 2017 at 10:39 pm

    @schrodingers_cat: The American Revolution, Paris in ’20s, French New Wave Cinema, Impressionists, Post-Impressionists (and so on), Existentialism, Catherine Deneuve, and so on.

  64. 64.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    April 11, 2017 at 10:40 pm

    A Once Great Nation‏ @USARedOrchestra 8m8 minutes ago

    Rumors are that James Murdoch wants O’Reilly off the air for good, and tonight might be his last show.

    4 replies 18 retweets 49 likes

    tick, tock….. tick, tock…..tick, tock….. tick, tock…..

  65. 65.

    GregB

    April 11, 2017 at 10:40 pm

    @Adam L Silverman:

    This boob is on his last legs.

  66. 66.

    patroclus

    April 11, 2017 at 10:40 pm

    Narrowing slightly – still a 6000 vote deficit – still 46-52. 88% in.

  67. 67.

    Adam L Silverman

    April 11, 2017 at 10:41 pm

    @schrodingers_cat: Actually who likes a milky liberal? Except, perhaps, a newborn baby liberal…

  68. 68.

    schrodingers_cat

    April 11, 2017 at 10:41 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus: I was referring to the GregB’s list of food stuffs, most of them were French. But yes what you said as well.

  69. 69.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    April 11, 2017 at 10:44 pm

    The Hill‏ thehill 19m19 minutes ago

    Bill O’Reilly announces he’s taking a vacation amid sexual harassment scandal

    64 replies 62 retweets 113 likes

    unscheduled “vacation” (ie fleeing the country)

  70. 70.

    Omnes Omnibus

    April 11, 2017 at 10:44 pm

    @schrodingers_cat: Quiche and croissants are yummy. I am more of a cafe au lait guy though.

  71. 71.

    Anya

    April 11, 2017 at 10:44 pm

    @Mnemosyne: They’re dumber than dirt. They’re patient zero of Trump voters.

  72. 72.

    dmsilev

    April 11, 2017 at 10:45 pm

    @David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: Is he headed for the Dominican Republic or to Thailand?

  73. 73.

    JPL

    April 11, 2017 at 10:46 pm

    @David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: I’d say it was to spend more time with his family, but it appears that he doesn’t have family wanting to spend time with him.
    sad

  74. 74.

    Anya

    April 11, 2017 at 10:47 pm

    @David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: nah. Vacation is the “spending time with family” for the assholes whose families are not talking to them.

  75. 75.

    Jay C

    April 11, 2017 at 10:47 pm

    Latest (22:45 ET) AP figs are 52-46 for Estes (there’s an Independent in the race who has garnered 2%).

  76. 76.

    patroclus

    April 11, 2017 at 10:49 pm

    AP called it for Estes. :(

  77. 77.

    Spanky

    April 11, 2017 at 10:50 pm

    @dmsilev: Don’t we have one of our agents in Thailand right now?

  78. 78.

    japa21

    April 11, 2017 at 10:50 pm

    Race calkwed for Estes. 94% reporting he has a 5.8% lead. That is phenomenal. For a GOPer to win that seat by that small a margin in a special election, which normally has an advantage for GOP is amazing.

  79. 79.

    JPL

    April 11, 2017 at 10:50 pm

    @patroclus: So are the Koch’s celebrating or saying omg, why so close?

  80. 80.

    amk

    April 11, 2017 at 10:51 pm

    After an uber progressive who only raised $400k nearly won the #KS04, you should all know this:

    Every district will be competitive in 2018.— Billy Fleming (@JooBilly) April 12, 2017

  81. 81.

    GregB

    April 11, 2017 at 10:52 pm

    Remember when brave and manly conservative warrior Jonah Goldberg referred to people protesting the GW version Iraq war as “Cheese eating surrender monkeys”.

    Part of the French thing with the wingnuts is the French military collapse in WWII and subsequent Vichy collaboration.

    Weak=French.

  82. 82.

    efgoldman

    April 11, 2017 at 10:52 pm

    @RandyG:

    Today’s number will come in at 110-120,000. Hmmmmm……

    Nothing sinister. Off year special elections generally have very low turnout.

  83. 83.

    Sab

    April 11, 2017 at 10:52 pm

    So the Courier-Journal thinks that it is important to run off pulmonologists from rural counties, because Kentucky has too many of them?

  84. 84.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    April 11, 2017 at 10:53 pm

    Amy Siskind‏ @Amy_Siskind 8m8 minutes ago

    according to 4 network sources, there’s talk inside @FoxNews tonite’s show could be his last.

  85. 85.

    schrodingers_cat

    April 11, 2017 at 10:56 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus I had a delicious chicken salad sandwich made with green chilies and cilantro, on a croissant once.

  86. 86.

    SiubhanDuinne

    April 11, 2017 at 10:58 pm

    Single digits in KS-4. I’ll take that happily.

  87. 87.

    dmsilev

    April 11, 2017 at 10:58 pm

    @David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: Fox will just replace one angry old white guy with another. Trump probably can carve out an hour a night from his schedule.

  88. 88.

    ken

    April 11, 2017 at 10:59 pm

    @japa21: And the Kansas Dems did that with basically no national help.

  89. 89.

    Omnes Omnibus

    April 11, 2017 at 11:00 pm

    @SiubhanDuinne: Yeah, let’s keep our focus on the forest.

  90. 90.

    chris

    April 11, 2017 at 11:00 pm

    @amk: Sad!

    But not surprising I guess.

  91. 91.

    rikyrah

    April 11, 2017 at 11:01 pm

    Dana Houle @DanaHoule

    19/…to win a seat that strong for the other party. But Thompson doesn’t need to win for this to be an omen for 2018. If Thompson is…

    Follow
    Dana Houle @DanaHoule

    20/…within 15 points, it’s bad for the Repubs. If it’s within 10–with Dems having spent nothing–we need to go big in 2018. If this…
    8:12 PM – 7 Apr 2017

  92. 92.

    RandyG

    April 11, 2017 at 11:01 pm

    @efgoldman: I wasn’t thinking anything sinister. Just kinda bemoaning the low turnout, which is unfortunately all too normal for this type of election.

  93. 93.

    Omnes Omnibus

    April 11, 2017 at 11:02 pm

    @GregB: Never mind that France was still broken from carrying most of the weight of fighting on the Western Front in WWI.

  94. 94.

    Yarrow

    April 11, 2017 at 11:02 pm

    @Adam L Silverman: Well, well, well. This along with today’s Spicer disaster, I wonder how long he’ll be around?

  95. 95.

    EBT

    April 11, 2017 at 11:03 pm

    @ken: How much help from the DCCC could he take without being tied to the DNC/Dirty Lefties?

  96. 96.

    LurkerNoLonger

    April 11, 2017 at 11:04 pm

    Kansas. It’s never been the same since Superman left for Metropolis. All kidding aside it’s encouraging the Dem had such a good showing.

  97. 97.

    Adam L Silverman

    April 11, 2017 at 11:05 pm

    @Yarrow: Who knows. As I wrote in my earlier post: it has been a strange day.

  98. 98.

    PhoenixRising

    April 11, 2017 at 11:06 pm

    @EBT: -3 help

    He’d have to give back contributions from the DCCC to not lose by 15. Matters because GA-06 and MT are next week. We can kick in or make calls to drive Dem turnout for the specials in those districts and have real impact. DCCC can’t do a damn thing without setting up a race between local R and Pelosi.

  99. 99.

    Yarrow

    April 11, 2017 at 11:07 pm

    @japa21: Yes, this is amazing. Special elections in a strong R district should heavily favor the Republican. Single digit difference is a big deal.

  100. 100.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    April 11, 2017 at 11:08 pm

    Taegan Goddard @politicalwire

    A 20-point swing towards Democrats in KS-4 during Trump’s first 100 days — a.k.a. his honeymoon — is a political earthquake

    44 replies 556 retweets 913 likes

    Yup. That is is happening 80 days into an administration is wack.

  101. 101.

    Omnes Omnibus

    April 11, 2017 at 11:08 pm

    @Yarrow: @Adam L Silverman: The smart money says anything from gone tomorrow to here until Karder’s Inauguration.

  102. 102.

    ken

    April 11, 2017 at 11:09 pm

    @EBT: Exactly. So I don’t understand why people were complaining about the lack of help. It’s almost like a 50 state plan but this time from the bottom up. Let each state rebuild its party. It’s said our party is a mix of various constituencies, why not the Democratic state parties function the same way.

  103. 103.

    David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch

    April 11, 2017 at 11:09 pm

    Dave Weigel‏ @daveweigel

    Estes won his last (statewide) race by 34 points; I think he ends up winning by 5 tonight. #KS04

    32 replies 180 retweets 360 likes

    This. Estes has already won statewide, by large numbers, yet he won by a low single digit against a first time candidate with no money.

  104. 104.

    Yarrow

    April 11, 2017 at 11:10 pm

    @Adam L Silverman: Aren’t most days strange now? Seems like it.

  105. 105.

    Adam L Silverman

    April 11, 2017 at 11:11 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus: Could be.

  106. 106.

    (((CassandraLeo)))

    April 11, 2017 at 11:12 pm

    @japa21: @Yarrow: To be fair, there’s an opposing hypothesis that off-year elections don’t advantage Republicans specifically but rather the opposition party of the President, which has just happened to be Republicans for four out of the last six cycles. This election is extremely powerful evidence to support the “advantage to opposition party” hypothesis over the “advantage to Republicans” one, but a 21-point collapse in support within the first 100 days is still unheard of. The shitgibbon is bigly unpopular.

  107. 107.

    dmsilev

    April 11, 2017 at 11:12 pm

    @Yarrow: I predict that he’ll last until Monday, when, having been forced to wear that Easter Bunny costume again, he snaps and runs off and is last seen streaking down the Mall.

  108. 108.

    Yarrow

    April 11, 2017 at 11:12 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    Sean Spicer is morally defective and profoundly stupid. If he's Trump's spox this time tomorrow, you know all you need to about this WH.— John Schindler (@20committee) April 12, 2017

    Guess we’ll see what happens…

  109. 109.

    Omnes Omnibus

    April 11, 2017 at 11:12 pm

    @Adam L Silverman: I felt like going out on a limb.

  110. 110.

    danielx

    April 11, 2017 at 11:14 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    There does come a time when incompetence becomes evil.

  111. 111.

    amk

    April 11, 2017 at 11:15 pm

    Estes, who just eked it out in a safe R district, giving a "people said we couldn't win" victory speech #KS04— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) April 12, 2017

  112. 112.

    guachi

    April 11, 2017 at 11:15 pm

    Checked current results versus Trump’s results in those counties in KS-04.

    So far Democrats are getting 56.5% of their 2016 Presidential totals and Republicans are getting 36.5% of their totals (with votes still to be counted)

    This was a winnable race with enough enthusiasm. Democrats should be excited about this result.

  113. 113.

    Adam L Silverman

    April 11, 2017 at 11:17 pm

    @Yarrow: He’s likely not going anywhere any time soon.

  114. 114.

    Adam L Silverman

    April 11, 2017 at 11:18 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus: Always good to stretch every now and them.

  115. 115.

    danielx

    April 11, 2017 at 11:19 pm

    Totally OT, but another piece of my misspent youth gone down the river:

    Guitarist J. Geils Dead at 71

    Was a time when they were the best live band in America, in my not very humble opinion.

  116. 116.

    Seth Owen

    April 11, 2017 at 11:19 pm

    @GregB: And they ignore the fact that many French continued to fight in the Free French Forces and the Resistance. DeGaulle maintained that the surrender was illegitimate. In any case, there were Frenchmen on the front lines from 1939 to 1945, so no one fought longer.

  117. 117.

    Jay C

    April 11, 2017 at 11:20 pm

    @amk:

    He’s a Republican: he could have won by ONE vote in a seriously contested recount, and would probably still crow about winning TEH BIGLIEST VICTORY EVAH!!!!!! And find a media chorus to loudly agree with him.

  118. 118.

    jl

    April 11, 2017 at 11:20 pm

    News report says Foxy Bill is going on vacation. That’s good, I think he needs a long vacation. He’s been looking kind of tired old and out of it for a while.

  119. 119.

    jl

    April 11, 2017 at 11:21 pm

    @David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: Sorry I missed your comment.
    But, it is so sad, people will want to be reminded. Maybe Hannity can join him.

  120. 120.

    Raoul

    April 11, 2017 at 11:22 pm

    I think a final margin of less than 10% is remarkable. Thompson ran a solid campaign on a short timeline and limited funds. I’m very proud of him for running to win. And as he said in the clip I just saw, he got out and shared core progressive values message with a lot of voters. Something that takes time, effort and money to do, but that can help build energy and an organization to help at least move Kansas back from it’s current Brownbackian dystopia.

  121. 121.

    Omnes Omnibus

    April 11, 2017 at 11:22 pm

    @jl: Since ’83?

  122. 122.

    (((CassandraLeo)))

    April 11, 2017 at 11:23 pm

    @jl: You could say the same thing about the president*. Don’t you think he looks tired?

    On the other hand, I am sullying the good Harriet Jones, Prime Minister, with the association. I apologise.

  123. 123.

    Cain

    April 11, 2017 at 11:25 pm

    @David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch: That guy is our rockstar from Oregon.

  124. 124.

    chris

    April 11, 2017 at 11:27 pm

    @danielx: Bummer as we used to say.
    I agree with your opinion. Saw him live a couple times when he was 26 or 27.

  125. 125.

    Davebo

    April 11, 2017 at 11:29 pm

    @Baud: He had a point though.

    Then again, Booman is in an almost perpetual state of pissy.

  126. 126.

    SFAW

    April 11, 2017 at 11:29 pm

    @(((CassandraLeo))):

    On the other hand, I am sullying the good Harriet Jones, Prime Minister, with the association. I apologise.

    On the other hand, if you got the same result that the Doctor did, I think Harriet/Penelope would be just fine with her name being sullied a little.

  127. 127.

    clay

    April 11, 2017 at 11:29 pm

    @amk: Sheesh. Literally zero people said he couldn’t win.

  128. 128.

    Cain

    April 11, 2017 at 11:30 pm

    @David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch:
    I hope he does it live.

  129. 129.

    EBT

    April 11, 2017 at 11:30 pm

    @PhoenixRising: Wonkette has been pimping MN and GA hard.

  130. 130.

    Corner Stone

    April 11, 2017 at 11:30 pm

    What the F is an “armada”?

  131. 131.

    (((CassandraLeo)))

    April 11, 2017 at 11:30 pm

    @SFAW: I suspect you are entirely correct.

  132. 132.

    SiubhanDuinne

    April 11, 2017 at 11:31 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    Yeah, let’s keep our focus on the forest.

    Sarcasm? Because seriously, I think anything under 15% is phenomenal, and Thompson did that easily. Not sure why you’re being so negative here unless I’m completely misreading you, in which case I apologize.

  133. 133.

    Omnes Omnibus

    April 11, 2017 at 11:31 pm

    @Corner Stone: Big SUV from Nissan. What do you ask?

  134. 134.

    Raoul

    April 11, 2017 at 11:33 pm

    I guess Thompson has now announced for 2018. Good. This is a race that needs to be run. Democrats need to come out of the woodwork and see if they can ride his coattails for dog catcher, school boards, whatever, in Sedgwick County and maybe a few others.

    KS needs to have at least a centrist if not progressive counterparty to the freakin winger GOP there.

  135. 135.

    Omnes Omnibus

    April 11, 2017 at 11:34 pm

    @SiubhanDuinne: Completely misreading my intent if not my words. Big picture is important. Winning here would have been a tree. Running this close is a view of the forest. Too convoluted?

  136. 136.

    dmsilev

    April 11, 2017 at 11:34 pm

    @Corner Stone: Bunch of Spaniards in not-very-seaworthy ships.

  137. 137.

    MisterForkbeard

    April 11, 2017 at 11:35 pm

    @SiubhanDuinne: I think he’s agreeing with you – he’s saying you can see the big picture (the forest and huge vote swing) rather than the individual result (tree and narrow loss). ‘Twas a little awkwardly phrased, though.

  138. 138.

    Adam L Silverman

    April 11, 2017 at 11:35 pm

    @Raoul: And if he’s smart, he announces tomorrow that he’s running against Estes in 2018, because that seat is up for reelection next year.

  139. 139.

    reality-based (the original, not the troll)

    April 11, 2017 at 11:35 pm

    See, this pisses me off. According to a (gloating, wingnut) commenter on the HuffPo blog, there were 78K Democratic votes in KS-4 in the 2016 election. Currently Thompson has a little over 51K votes. So there were at least 26k more votes that could have been gotten, by a determined, thorough GOTV. Ok, special election apathy – 10K votes would have been enough.

    and this is why, damm it, the only DNC chair candidate i truly favored was Howard Dean – the last chair with a “Fight’em everywhere, no GOP gimmes, spend money at the state and local level instead of on incompetent DC consultants.

    (Never mind that when the Dem’s won seats in 2006 under his leadership, Rahm “Pick your battles and recruit GOP clones” took all the credit.)

    and I am HRC all the way, not a bernieBro – who i have still not forgiven – and i gave to Thompson. So i can be a LITTLE pissed.

    links, in case anyone wants to revisit 10-year-old arguments. Which i don’t – except DAMMIT!

    dean link 1

    link 2

  140. 140.

    SiubhanDuinne

    April 11, 2017 at 11:36 pm

    @danielx:

    Just a couple of days ago, “Angel in the Centerfold” popped into my mind for the first time in a decade or more. RIP, JG.

  141. 141.

    SFAW

    April 11, 2017 at 11:37 pm

    @Corner Stone:

    What the F is an “armada”?

    Ain’t it one o’ them animals what ends up smooshed on Texas highways?

  142. 142.

    SiubhanDuinne

    April 11, 2017 at 11:38 pm

    @MisterForkbeard:

    Thanks. I usually agree with Omnes, so this took me by surprise. But I am +2 so easy to believe I got it wrong.

  143. 143.

    Cain

    April 11, 2017 at 11:38 pm

    @Adam L Silverman:
    Indeed.. that will make him sweat. He’ll need to have something to accomplish one year in. Otherwise.. kxxxt.

  144. 144.

    Corner Stone

    April 11, 2017 at 11:39 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus: Watch it! You’re almost in troll territory. Just say “yes” and move on.

  145. 145.

    SiubhanDuinne

    April 11, 2017 at 11:40 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    Sorry, it’s on me. Your phrasing was a little ambiguous, but I am almost always willing to give you benefit of the doubt, as I am tonight.

  146. 146.

    jl

    April 11, 2017 at 11:40 pm

    @SFAW: A hefty lady armadillo?

  147. 147.

    PhoenixRising

    April 11, 2017 at 11:41 pm

    @reality-based (the original, not the troll):
    This was not a matter of money, which is what the DCCC can drop from a helicopter. Who was going to knock on every damn door in Wichita with a probable Dem behind it for money at this time of year? No one local. Another 3 weeks to organize it, maybe…

    This race was not winnable in a special if this local boy didn’t win it: That’s my position. GA-06 and MT though…we have time.

  148. 148.

    Corner Stone

    April 11, 2017 at 11:41 pm

    @dmsilev: One of them just won The Masters so it looks like they know how to sail it close, after all.

  149. 149.

    reality-based (the original, not the troll)

    April 11, 2017 at 11:41 pm

    @GregB:

    also because the French Foreign minister – Villepin – wrote an eloquent – and prophetic “USA, we are always your friends but please don’t invade Iraq – you will regret it! because XWZ” – Op-Ed in the NY TImes – all of which came to pass.

    so, you know – in wingnuttia – “smart” = “weak”

  150. 150.

    Corner Stone

    April 11, 2017 at 11:42 pm

    Can someone please knock that faux pen!s out of Steve Kornacki’s hand?

  151. 151.

    Adam L Silverman

    April 11, 2017 at 11:43 pm

    @PhoenixRising: @reality-based (the original, not the troll):

    2 points relevant to tonight:
    —#KS04 significantly redder than either #GA06 & #MTAL.
    —All 3 significantly redder than the median district.

    — Taniel (@Taniel) April 11, 2017

  152. 152.

    Mnemosyne

    April 11, 2017 at 11:43 pm

    @reality-based (the original, not the troll):

    I tend to agree with PhoenixRising — the timeframe on this was so short that it was hard to get organized, and I don’t think anyone expected Trump to have basically no honeymoon at all with voters.

  153. 153.

    Omnes Omnibus

    April 11, 2017 at 11:43 pm

    @SiubhanDuinne: It might not have been my best metaphor, but I was surprised that you reacted so sharply.

  154. 154.

    jl

    April 11, 2017 at 11:43 pm

    Recent developments since Nov ’16 indicate to me that the Mayan Apocalypse is a real thing. They just got the date a little wrong.

  155. 155.

    Yarrow

    April 11, 2017 at 11:44 pm

    @reality-based (the original, not the troll): If the DCCC had poured money into the district it would have gotten a lot of attention and Estes might have won by more. There is an argument that only an under the radar campaign could win in a district as heavily R as this one.

    The D votes left on the table are annoying, but I’m excited that Thompson did so well.

  156. 156.

    Adam L Silverman

    April 11, 2017 at 11:44 pm

    @Corner Stone: What the hell channel are you watching?

  157. 157.

    Adam L Silverman

    April 11, 2017 at 11:45 pm

    @jl: No one ever reads the back side of the calendar stone…

  158. 158.

    Corner Stone

    April 11, 2017 at 11:47 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus: She has been offensive/intemperate for a few days recently. I suspect there is something going on in her personal life.

  159. 159.

    Omnes Omnibus

    April 11, 2017 at 11:47 pm

    @reality-based (the original, not the troll): Ignoring again the fact the the French have historically wanted to get into every and any war. Even tiny colonial ones. The fact that they wanted no part of Iraq was the biggest tell ever – BAD IDEA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  160. 160.

    Yarrow

    April 11, 2017 at 11:47 pm

    @Corner Stone: What in the world? What exactly is in his hand?

  161. 161.

    BlueDWarrior

    April 11, 2017 at 11:47 pm

    @Yarrow: Votes left on the table is always a thing regarding Congressional elections. A disturbing number of voters only get up for Presidential years. That is one of the many long term problems we have to solve on the small-d ‘democratic’ end.

  162. 162.

    Mnemosyne

    April 11, 2017 at 11:50 pm

    @Yarrow:

    Hopefully Thompson will be able to be as clever as Doug Applegate in Darrell Issa’s district and keep himself in the public eye as a gadfly against Estes so he’ll have better name recognition in 2018.

  163. 163.

    Omnes Omnibus

    April 11, 2017 at 11:50 pm

    @reality-based (the original, not the troll): This was actually a good result. It was a good day.

  164. 164.

    Corner Stone

    April 11, 2017 at 11:51 pm

    Kornacki has a schtick where he always has a rolled up sheaf of paper in his hand to whack down and up and point to the Big Board. It’s a phallic symbol. Sorry, but it just is.

  165. 165.

    amk

    April 11, 2017 at 11:51 pm

    @reality-based (the original, not the troll): Yup. The dem voters need to stick these landings if they ever want to govern again.

  166. 166.

    Yarrow

    April 11, 2017 at 11:51 pm

    @BlueDWarrior: Yep. I hope Dems realize that 2018 is an election year and vote.

  167. 167.

    Mnemosyne

    April 11, 2017 at 11:55 pm

    I should be researching Scottish independence movements of the 19th century, but am I? No, I am not.

    Stupid migraine. ?

  168. 168.

    Omnes Omnibus

    April 11, 2017 at 11:55 pm

    @amk: Less than 100 days into Trump and GOP support seems to be falling while Dem support is increasing. This was a shot across the bows of the GOP. Fucking Kansas was competitive.

  169. 169.

    PhoenixRising

    April 11, 2017 at 11:57 pm

    @Adam L Silverman: Exactly.

    Kansas has exiled a lot of good Americans who donn’t comply with the most extreme version of Republican Christ, including my wife’s friend/roommate of the 1980s. When he was lost to AIDS, his parents came to Seattle to bring his body home and their neighbors the faithful Christians of KS-04 circulated a petition to prevent his burial in the cemetery. He was returned to the earth on the family farm in Sedgwick County, in secret.

    This was 27 years ago, during the HW Bush administration, 20 years before Dr. George Tiller was shot in the head in his church on his usher Sunday.

    Thompson damn near won this thing with the support of Planned Parenthood while endorsing an inclusive future for LGBT Kansans to keep all ‘our kids at home in the 4th’.

    Well done and he’ll be back when Estes–who had already won statewide office–has even more to apologize for after a year in the do-nothing US House. Which has a poll rating between gum stuck to your shoe and syphilis.

  170. 170.

    Adam L Silverman

    April 12, 2017 at 12:10 am

    @PhoenixRising: I’m so sorry, though unfortunately not surprised, to read about your wife’s friend. How miserably twisted one has to be to do something like that is just amazing. I have often remarked that those most worried about an eternity in Hell simply create it for themselves and others in the here and now.

    As for Thompson: he’s got everything going for him. Army vet. The House of Representatives is not going to do anything of any significance between now and the election and is going to be damned lucky not to be part of a government shut down or debt ceiling breach and default between now and the 2018 election. He was smart in how he handled the issue of firearms. And the President has now announced that he wants to immediately revisit and push healthcare. So Thompson is going to be able to leverage that as well. This should have been an easy Republican hold, instead it was a squeaker.

  171. 171.

    reality-based (the original, not the troll)

    April 12, 2017 at 12:17 am

    @Mnemosyne: Ok – well, between you and Mnemosyne and Taegan Goddard – and, you know – 20 point swing! – I am now somewhat cheered up. Onward! I wish the state party had helped him a little more – but that’s on them, not DC – so

    And dunno about Georgia – GOP will fight to the last wingnut for that one – but Montana could be gettable.

  172. 172.

    Lizzy L

    April 12, 2017 at 12:24 am

    OT but it relates: I went to a town hall in Richmond CA with my progressive Dem Congressman Mark DeSaulnier tonight. It was good, well attended, though the crowd skewed white and boomer, but there was a mix. DeSaulnier called DJT “He who shall not be named” the whole time. He’s not inspirational but he’s been doing politics a loong time, he came up the old-fashioned way — local boards, state gov, and then the House — and he knows what he’s doing. The first question was about Russia, the election, and the Intelligence Committee (which he isn’t on.) He was not complimentary about Nunes. He said the biggest problem in politics today is money, Citizens United, the Kochs and the Mercers, and so on. He said, if we can fix that, we can get back to democracy, but if we don’t we’re going to continue the slide into oligarchy.

    I left a bit early because I was beat, but I’m glad I went.

  173. 173.

    reality-based (the original, not the troll)

    April 12, 2017 at 12:28 am

    @Omnes Omnibus: too true!

    My grandfather (native Frenchman, living in US after WWI) was actually the liaison between the US OSS & EIsenhower & General Giraud during WWII – lots of skulking around Casablanca and Algiers, evidently.

    I have some cool pictures of him with Roosevelt & Eisenhower & Giraud & Degaulle in very dashing uniforms! – so the whole “weak French” canard always pissed me off .

    (not even Mentioning the heroic French Rear Guard at Dunkirk. )

  174. 174.

    reality-based (the original, not the troll)

    April 12, 2017 at 12:36 am

    @Omnes Omnibus: well, i am, as always, cheered by the commentariat here – so now i am officially re-
    focused on forest again, abandoning my fantasies of one very big, unexpected, tree.

    wait – that didn’t come out right –

  175. 175.

    Lizzy L

    April 12, 2017 at 12:41 am

    FYWP just ate a long comment I wrote about my Congressman’s Town Hall in Richmond, CA, which I attended. It was very good, well attended, interesting. Unfortunately, I am dead tired — 3 nights of lousy sleep, 4 very stressful days — so I am not going to rewrite. I am going to bed. I expect to sleep well, because Thing Are Better tonight. (Illness — not mine — doctors finally prescribed the right drug — good response. Since we’re dealing with a brain tumor, this is a pretty tense time. But Things Are Better.)

    G’night, jackals. The KS news is pretty good, I think. Sure, it would have been great if the D had won but that was pretty unlikely.

    Oh — are we betting on the week of Spicer’s departure yet?

  176. 176.

    Omnes Omnibus

    April 12, 2017 at 12:41 am

    @reality-based (the original, not the troll): France gave more than it had in WWI. WWII was a bitch. The West chose to recognize De Gaulle. There were other options. Those which match with Le Pen. Let’s see what they do. Here, we already failed.

    Good for your granddad – it was a tough time.

  177. 177.

    Omnes Omnibus

    April 12, 2017 at 12:43 am

    @reality-based (the original, not the troll): It isn’t a good metaphor for this.

  178. 178.

    Adam L Silverman

    April 12, 2017 at 12:46 am

    @Lizzy L: I found it. It went into the trash. It is free.

  179. 179.

    Lizzy L

    April 12, 2017 at 12:49 am

    @Adam L Silverman: Hah. There it is after all. Thank you.

  180. 180.

    Adam L Silverman

    April 12, 2017 at 12:55 am

    @Lizzy L: no problem

  181. 181.

    Mnemosyne

    April 12, 2017 at 1:02 am

    @Lizzy L:

    Good luck with the other person’s illness. My (now late) father in law got the worst possible brain tumor news (inoperable glioblastoma), but they were able to keep the tumor in check for 2 and a half years longer than originally predicted thanks to the right drug. Hopefully your loved one will be able to get some extra time as well.

  182. 182.

    Gretchen

    April 12, 2017 at 2:47 am

    Here’s a link to a story about the statistician that sued Sedgwick County, where Thompson did best, to see the voting machine tapes. She detected a statistical anomaly that patterns of votes for Republicans increased with the size of the county, and wanted to check reported results with the tapes. My county can’t be audited because we don’t have tapes. We just have to trust that the machines are working properly. So when Republicans do better than the polls predict, it’s because we’re dumb Kansans who vote against our best interests and don’t deserve anyone’s sympathy.
    http://www.kshb.com/news/state/kansas/kansas-statistician-suing-the-state-to-obtain-election-records-says-voting-results-dont-add-up

  183. 183.

    Gretchen

    April 12, 2017 at 3:02 am

    @chris: Kansas has multiple congressional districts. There was only an election in one of them. Sadly, we don’t all get to vote in all the districts.

  184. 184.

    Gretchen

    April 12, 2017 at 3:10 am

    @Anya: So all of Kansas is “dumber than dirt”, including the 46% of Wichita voters who voted exactly the way you wanted them to? Those people? And me?

  185. 185.

    Gretchen

    April 12, 2017 at 3:22 am

    @Anya: My daughter brought her boyfriend home from Brooklyn for the first time last weekend. He was surprised to her hometown quite pleasant, and populated by her circle of reasonably intelligent, flaming liberal friends and family. He didn’t have a single encounter with a redneck or a tractor. But you hang on to your view of a place I assume you’ve never visited.

  186. 186.

    Gretchen

    April 12, 2017 at 3:25 am

    @ken: And no state party help either. Thompson asked the state party for $20,000 for mailers a couple of weeks ago and they said sorry, no can do.

  187. 187.

    Gretchen

    April 12, 2017 at 3:33 am

    @PhoenixRising: Thompson did have an impressive number of people door-knocking every weekend for the last few weeks, and he talked to any group that would have him. They guy is a worker. I hope he tries again in 2018. I’m on his mailing list since I donated several times.

  188. 188.

    Anya

    April 12, 2017 at 5:26 am

    @Gretchen: It goes without saying that I am referring to the majority of Kansans who continue to vote for the harmful GOP policies. After all they’ve voted for Governor Brownback twice despite his horrendous record.

    And actually you’re wrong. I’ve visited Kansas twice. One of those times was on the 60th Anniversary of Brown v. Board of Education.

  189. 189.

    Walker

    April 12, 2017 at 8:41 am

    @Doug!: I’m gonna work the straw

  190. 190.

    laura

    April 12, 2017 at 8:49 am

    @Lizzy L: Thanks for the report out Lizzy!

  191. 191.

    Gretchen

    April 12, 2017 at 10:04 am

    @Anya: It doesn’t “go without saying”, when you dismiss an entire state-full of people as “dumb as dirt”, that you don’t mean the 49.9% of voters who voted against Brownback, but only the 50.0% who did. Good for you, visiting on the anniversary of Brown, and still not getting that many residents of the state aren’t dumb rednecks who deserve whatever happens to them.

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