The polls have closed in France and the election results are starting to come in and it looks like Macron versus Le Pen in the second round. From The Guardian‘s live blog:
Different broadcasters are giving marginally different figures, but that looks like the basic picture: Macron marginally ahead of Le Pen (some polling institutes have them dead level), with Fillon and Mélenchon trailing on around 19.5%. The Socialist candidate, Hamon, is way down on 6.5%.
The two second-round contestants seem clear. It will be the independent centrist versus the far-right leader – two radically opposing visions of France.
Initial vote estimate: Macron and Le Pen through to runoff
The official first vote estimate for the first round of France’s presidential election shows the independent centrist, Emmanuel Macron, has scored 23.7% of the vote and Marine Le Pen 21.7% and have qualified for the second run-off round.
Remember, this is not the official result and those figures could yet change.
#BREAKING Macron, Le Pen shown ahead in French presidential race: projection pic.twitter.com/SZfX3PqM8r
— AFP news agency (@AFP) April 23, 2017
And, as we’ve become accustomed to, the usual suspects have been out in force on social media:
I looked at the most influential users within the Twitter networks tweeting about #JeVote Surprise, several are American pro-Trump accounts pic.twitter.com/IHToHim6WN
— Jacob Steinblatt (@Jsteinblatt) April 23, 2017
Expect the social media, as well as other forms of external intervention to continue through the second round election.
Twitter bots are spreading fake news & Russian propaganda ahead of French election. https://t.co/7Mb1CKA11l
— Caroline O. (@RVAwonk) April 23, 2017
Revealed: Marine Le Pen signed a 3,000,000€ loan with a Russian bank in June 2016. It's the third loan she's contracted with Russian banks. https://t.co/YjccGT7B8Q
— Thomas Seymat (@tseymat) March 30, 2017
This official FN document states the loan is to fund the presidential campaign. Total Russian loans for Le Pen: 14M€ https://t.co/4P9p4zcBH2
— Thomas Seymat (@tseymat) March 30, 2017
Aux Armes Citoyens!
Update at 2:30 PM EDT
From The Guardian‘s live blog of the election returns:
Polling for a projected second round pitting Macron against Le Pen have consistently shown the centrist winning by a very comfortable margin. Here’s a Guardian graphic of the way the polls have developed over recent months:
Yutsano
Do I even want to look at the bad French the pro-Trump accounts put up?
EDIT: the analysis I’m seeing says this gives Macron a win and the parliamentary election promises to be a total mishegas.
Baud
God, I hope Macron doesn’t have a private email server.
Adam L Silverman
@Baud:
JPL
@Baud: Don’t worry, if he does the NYTimes will be all over it.
Macron should be in good shape to win the second round, because Le Pen is unpopular. Okay, it’s not over til it’s over.
Mike J
Of course there are Mélenchon supporters (or people claiming to be) saying that Le Pen would be better than Macron, no real difference, blah blah blah.
JDM
So it turns out the Rooskies won the Cold War after all.
Sanjeevs
One simple change would make a huge difference. Facebook could ensure that only legit news sources appeared in news feeds. Zuckerberg refuses to do it
Adam L Silverman
Just put a quick update up top.
Baud
@Mike J: Has Mélenchon said anything yet?
alce_ e_ ardilla
@Mike J: So France has Berniebros too.
JGabriel
Jacob Steinblatt via Adam @ Top:
I think he means “American” pro-Trump accounts, since all pro-Trump accounts can be read as doing Putin’s bidding.
Adam L Silverman
@Baud: Yes, he’s going to be doing an outreach tour of all 50 states with Tom Perez, but he is still refusing to join the Democratic Party.//
JPL
@Adam L Silverman: Did you have time to read the NYTimes article on Comey yet?
Yesterday after reading it, my stomach was in knots, even though I was sorta aware of the timeline. It was apparent to Comey that Russia was attempting to interfere with the election and wanted to write an oped piece in July. In September and early October there was information suggesting possible collusion with the Trump campaign.
It seems to me that he was okay with writing a generic oped piece in July, but changed his mind because of Trump.
He already interfered with the election with the statement about Clinton in July, and then had no qualms with the letter the end of October. He appeared to be hell bent on protecting one candidate.
Mike J
@Baud:
Cazeneuve (socialist) has come out in support of Macron.
Adam L Silverman
@JGabriel: That was my take.
Baud
@Adam L Silverman: Heh. They should sell tickets.
BTW, did you make up the stuff about all 50 states, or is that what Perez and Sanders are doing?
Adam L Silverman
@Baud: I have no idea what Perez and Sanders are doing in terms of where they’re going/how many stops they will make.
ArchTeryx
I’m not sure it’s the Russkies winning the Cold War so much as that the reactionary right is a malignant cancer, a boil on the ass of humanity. Combine it with economic distress – which Europe has in spades thanks to all kinds of austerity – and it starts growing all over the body politic of the Western world.
germy
We had Public Radio on yesterday (I don’t know if it was PRI, NPR or Marketplace or what) and I heard some baffling comments from the panel of experts. The host asked one of the experts who he backed and he replied Fillon. A woman on the panel said this election wasn’t about “right” or “left” candidates, but about a serious nationalism and love of country. The woman didn’t see any racism or bigotry.
Baud
@alce_ e_ ardilla:
Le garçons de Mélenchon.
Timurid
@Adam L Silverman: Hopefully Sanders will go fuck himself with a rake, after Perez has been helpful enough to wrap the handle with barbed wire.
Adam L Silverman
@JPL: I read it. It tracks with what I’ve been surmising in comments here when it has come up for discussion.
Adam L Silverman
@Baud: Fixed it for you:
germy
Who is Julian rooting for?
Mike J
mai naem mobile
@germy: his girlfriend Le Pen
Baud
@Mike J: No Ted Nugent or Kidd Rock. Sad!
JPL
Fillon has already endorse Macron.
Mike J
@Adam L Silverman: Did you mean pickles or cochon?
And les for plural either way.
Citizen_X
@ArchTeryx: Yes, but Putin saw a weakness throughout the West, and he exploited it. I’m kind of impressed how effective the effort has been, and all at a pretty low cost, as far as global interventions go.
PsiFighter37
Very pleased. Macron is by far the best of a mediocre field. I just wonder how he’s going to actually do anything (I doubt En Marche! is the largest party after National Assembly elections).
SRW1
@germy:
Tough one in the first round. Marine all the way in the second.
tobie
I’m pleased with these results. Macron will win the next round and Europe will live to see another day. My big fear was that Le Pen and Melenchon would have come out on top and that would have meant a French Brexit or what could be called a Frexit. I’m reassured now that won’t happen.
germy
In France they have this strange system where the candidate with the most votes wins?
SiubhanDuinne
@Baud:
JeanLucFrères
Nora
@JDM: The same way the South won the Civil War after all, I’m afraid.
ArchTeryx
@Citizen_X: Yeah, it doesn’t help that even a third-rate power is actively caring for and feeding the cancer as it grows. He’s more or less turned the electronic Samizdat into another propaganda tool, and you have to admit, as an oligarch, Putin is hella successful at it. But I’m not sure he’s that much more successful then most oligarchs. They’ve been catapulting the propaganda for a long time. He just figured out how to bring it into the modern age.
Money buys a lot of speech, and propaganda is how money is converted into power. Take a good look at our own elections. The French should know better, but they don’t.
germy
@Baud: Did you see KRock’s childhood home just went up for sale? I think for several million dollars. It’s actually an estate; looks like something Barbra Streisand would own.
Salt of the earth.
SRW1
Fine piece of irony by Vladimir to have the bank giving loans to foreign political parties call itself ‘Strategy Bank”.
germy
Who is Bernie rooting for?
SiubhanDuinne
@germy:
Himself.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@germy: Bernard Sableurs! the only true candidate of le people!
Fillon* and Hamon (Bog issue conservative and official Socialist) have announced their support for Macron to block LePen
* though I believe much more culturally conservative and church-y than most French conservatives, and of course a cheap grifter
germy
@SiubhanDuinne: He chose poorly.
donatellonerd
no, apparently he’s waiting to be sure if he’s 3rd or 4th.
from a lurker in France whose whole family voted Macron whom we dislike a lot because … he had the best chance to beat Le Pen (and also we’re pro-Europe, though it could certainly be improved.
SiubhanDuinne
@germy:
Not for the first time.
germy
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Wow. I guess there was too much ego in these here Yoonited States for any blocking last year.
John Revolta
@germy: Hmm. That explains a lot, actually.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@germy: @John Revolta: I had no idea, I’m only vaguely aware of him and confused him with the other white MI right wing rapper who made that 8 Mile movie– which I’ve heard is actually pretty good– and neither of them apparently are Vanilla Ice
germy
Voting on a Sunday. How primitive these Europeans are.
We vote on Tuesday and we like it.
Bill E Pilgrim
@JPL:
True. Also, it’s over.
You’ll hear the “but Brexit/Trump were a surprise” line even still but no one closed a 25% point gap between polling and voting in those. Actually I think Brexit was polling pretty much the way the vote turned out at least at the end, but the denial was really strong. Don’t quote me on that, I don’t follow UK votes like the French ones. Two weeks ain’t a long time, and he’s 25 percentage points ahead. And the same polls that have him 63% and her 37% in round two predicted this first vote pretty spot on.
JPL
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: It’s amazing that all the center right have come out in support of Macron, to prevent a racist from assuming office. Country first.
germy
ArchTeryx
@JPL: How charmingly anacronistic. Here, the elephant flies above the Stars and Stripes. Always.
D58826
SOMEWHAT OT but according to Kevin Drum – Hillary ran an average campaign. WOW
https://twitter.com/kdrum/status/856214625901309952
Which kind of goes along with Greg Sargent’s piece –
JPL
@Bill E Pilgrim: Brexit was polling ahead but stay was closing the gap, if I remember correctly. Truth be known, the British exit should help the French economy.
Bill E Pilgrim
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: It’s a tradition there, the “clothes pin” vote. Hold your nose and vote for someone you dislike to prevent someone you really hate.
Actually in another way of looking at it, we eventually end up with two candidates also, and there’s a lot of coalescing[1]. The first round is almost (only sort of) like our whole primary process.
I seem to remember that people were actually wearing clothes pins but it’s forbidden in polling places so they wore them only to the door.
[1} For our last election it occurs to me that “congealing” might be a better word than coalescing.
JPL
@ArchTeryx: I read that and had a vision that the elephant will fall someday and smash the cheeto man to shreds. lol
J R in WV
So the FTFNYT has a long story about the Carl Vinson’s canceled port call and how it was mishandled, misrepresented, misinformed, and nearly sparked thermonuclear war. Even the Pentagon was a ClusterFQ on this one, evidently.
I think we can trust even the FTFNYT to get this story right, now, 3 weeks after the fact… not that everyone else wasn’t evidently 180 degrees off on the story.
How badly can the White House AND the military mess up a fleet movement? Totally!!
Chris
I voted yesterday. In line a few people behind me was a woman wearing a hijab who’d brought her kids out to vote with her. Hopefully, the final election results do right by her and her family.
(And speaking of lines, if the French embassy is going to keep making people line up outside of it on election day, it really should invest in a sidewalk someday).
As for the general election, let me repost what I just posted at LGM:
Fingers crossed for Macron. We’re back to what’s been my fear all along, which is that Hillbot/Berniebro type crap among the not-fascists would lead enough people to stay home on election night to hand Le Pen a victory. In this case, I can totally see plenty of Euroskeptics on both the left and the “mainstream” right being too pissy to vote for a Neoliberal Centrist Establishment Corporate Crony. The polls I’ve seen gave it to Macron in a Macron/Le Pen runoff, but, well, let’s say I’m not relying on polls to keep me sane after 2016.
Bill E Pilgrim
Chris
@Citizen_X:
Yeah. The post-Soviet Russians have figured out that, if trying to break up the West by supporting marginalized and despised movements like those on the far left was a fool’s game, doing the same thing to gangster capitalists and white nationalists would be devastatingly effective.
Chris
@donatellonerd:
This is me too. Honestly, it’s refreshing simply to have a candidate who’s unembarrased to be pro-EU, though the second part of your sentence is incredibly true.
James E Powell
@JPL:
That’s been my take all along. The alternate explanations strike me as post-hoc grief and excuses.
Iowa Old Lady
John Oliver had a line something like, “Come on, France. You’re always bragging about how you’re smarter than England or America. Prove it!” Thank god, they seem to have at least begun doing so.
Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes
@Citizen_X:
The weakness he exploited was that EVERY TIME our 1% control congress, they shaft their most heartfelt idiot supporters to such an extent that the idiot supporters hand them even more power and control.
Frank Wilhoit
If Melenchon does not endorse Macron, at least as flatly as Fillon did, not later than noon Monday (Paris time), then Le Pen will win.
JPL
@James E Powell: I know. If Comey had mentioned in the same letter, that the Trump campaign was also being investigating for possible collusion with Russia, the election might be different. In fact the letter wouldn’t have been released.
I’ve been having visions of the administration being taken down, but Comey didn’t do anything then, he won’t now. It’s magical thinking.
Another Scott
@J R in WV: Thanks for the link.
As usual, don’t read the comments… :-/
Cheers,
Scott.
debbie
The New Yorker is unamused:
Roger Moore
@germy:
It’s worth noting they waited until after the Ecuadorian election guaranteed that Assange will continue to have sanctuary. IOW, it’s kabuki.
NotMax
Gotta give him an A for gumption.
Chris
@debbie:
Ironically given that it’s one of their pet peeves, the modern history of the Republican Party has been one long line of that party being handed participation trophy after participation trophy, no matter how badly it fucks up.
burnspbesq
@Frank Wilhoit:
You’re going to have to elaborate on that, because it doesn’t make a lick of sense as stated.
Sean
@tobie: LePen win doesn’t guarantee a Frexit. Still would need a referendum. I see the two splitting the left vote and Macron picking up a large majority of the traditional right vote. Turnout is the one worry; Macron neither offends or excites but he is an outsider of sorts. Given decent turnout, he wins by 15%.
JPL
@Frank Wilhoit: Sky News
Far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon says he will not endorse any candidate for the second round of the French presidential election
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Frank Wilhoit:
I’ve heard a lot of socialists are expected to go Jean-Luc or Bust, but I don’t know enough about it to say> Are there Socialist figures popular and of a stature to counter him/them?
Sean
@Frank Wilhoit: I wouldn’t assume by a long shot his vote will overwhelmingly go to lepen. She is still too toxic for many on the left.
Roger Moore
@Chris:
It shouldn’t be surprising, and I don’t think it’s really a result of Putin being smarter or better at strategy than the communists were. It’s more a matter of each one trying to support ideologically sympathetic groups in the West. It just happens that the extremist right wing is a lot more powerful than the extremist left.
Chris
@JPL:
Yep. A Berniebro’s Berniebro. No surprises there.
@Sean:
True, but a fucking shitload of them could stay home, and we can’t afford to lose much. Especially since there are a bunch of Euroskeptics in the center-right as well to worry about.
Sean
@JPL: center right are much closer to centrist Macron. LePen is far right on race, security, immigration and EU but left of center on most domestic policy.
Sean
@Chris: there is still a big leap from eurosceptic to 100% anti EU NF position.
Kathleen
@J R in WV: Can you imagine if Clinton or Obama had done this?
Redshift
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes:
After investing a relatively tiny amount in propaganda to convince them that brown people and immigrants are the real cause of the shafting.
Cacti
@germy:
Yeah, Bobby Ritchie grew up in upper class, suburban Detwah. Son of a Lincoln dealership owner.
Total poseur jackass.
ArchTeryx
@Cacti: Far as white rappers go, Eminem, like him or hate him, has more sincerity in his pinky finger then KRock has in his entite life.
ArchTeryx
@Cacti: Because of COURSE he came from car dealership money.
Cacti
@ArchTeryx:
Yeah, Kid Rock’s blue collar shtick is about as authentic as the princelings of Duck Dynasty.
D58826
@debbie: Maybe Ivanka and Kushner can keep his itchy finger off the nuclear button and see to it that he works at least part of the day on being president. If they keep him from blowing up the world then the Chinese trademarks for her products are well worth the price.
JPL
@D58826: It depends on the day of the week.
HeleninEire
Nobody here is talking about the French elections. It’s on the Irish news but the people here are not really interested. They cared GREATLY about the American elections. But not the French. That’s why I moved here. We are removed both geographically and socially from almost everyone. I like it here.
chris
Hahaha. (bitterly) The wingnut welfare keeps on a’rollin’. Or a’russian.
patroclus
C’est la vie.
Je Suis Macron.
hovercraft
From the Guardian
Aleta
-From Joe.My.God. (also on Huffpo)
(Now when they rule against him he can wail, “I was very nice to them.”
msdc
@germy: Is there any doubt?
Taylor
@HeleninEire: I think there’s a strong connection with the US because just about every family has relatives in the US. When I was growing up, every house had a picture of Pope Paul and of JFK.
Mr Stagger Lee
@Cacti: Isn’t Larry the Cable Guy also from a more upscale background?
JPL
@hovercraft: Thanks. Russia still has a few weeks to interfere though.
amk
80% turnout is impressive.
Ksmiami
@ArchTeryx: I have it on good authority that kid rock is not welcome in la. Even for la party people he’s too disgusting
Baud
@msdc:
Why would the French care?
Mr Stagger Lee
@Taylor: ones I knew had both JFK and RFK, some of the African American ones included Martin Luther King.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud: He may have used email.
msdc
@Baud: Anti-Americanism, anti-“banking” fervor (nudge nudge, wink wink), and a Sputnik/RT whispering campaign, enthusiastically amplified by Assange, about Macron’s sexuality. The ties to Clinton are only important insofar as they allow Assange to claim inside information confirming the conspiracy theories… and, of course, insofar as they make the destruction of another republic all about the EMAILZ.
HeleninEire
@Taylor: Yes. I thought that because Ireland is part of the EU they would be more engaged. Nope. All they want here is peace and prosperity. Ireland is a neutral state. Like Switzerland. We just wanna live our lives. Quietly.
clay
@ArchTeryx: Talent as well.
Mr Stagger Lee
@?BillinGlendaleCA: Waiting for the head of the DGSE to issue that report, then again they may have the goods on LePen.
Ruviana
@Aleta: Those poor people, having to eat overcooked steak with ketchup.
hovercraft
@msdc: @Baud:
These are from last year.
From UPI
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2016/06/29/Obama-US-Clinton-enjoy-high-ratings-around-world-confidence-in-Trump-low/5681467221664/
But I also found this, but it’s from an outfit I’ve never heard of before, Frenchly:
http://frenchly.us/why-is-hillary-unpopular-in-france/
Why Is Hillary Unpopular…in France?
So who the hell knows?
They can try and taint him with Hillary, but Obama who has an 80% approval rating endorsed him himself, so I think that will carry more weight, or at least I hope so.
mai naem mobile
@Aleta: I wouldnt go if I was one of the liberal justoces. He might poison me. Also he doesn’t understand shit about law.
Chris
@Sean:
Yes, but not everyone has to be 100% Front National. All it takes is a certain number of people who’re Euroskeptical and FN-curious enough to vote for her, and a number of other people staying home because EU vs Le Pen = not a dime’s worth of difference!
msdc
@hovercraft: AFAIK it’s not specifically about tainting him with Hillary so much as using the Most Secret Treasure Trove of Emails Ever to imply they can substantiate all the other BS they’re trying to taint him with – too close to “the banks” (nudge nudge, wink wink), sekrit ghey, etc.
But who knows? Assange is so far off the deep end he probably does think connecting a centrist liberal to the dreaded she-beast is some sort of knockout punch. I wonder how long before Greenwald follows suit.
Frank Wilhoit
@Sean: That wasn’t my point. His people will sit home. Macron needs them.
SFBayAreaGal
@germy: Love the reference to Indiana Jones and The Last Crusade.
Dusty Confetti
Another Romeo HS grad here. Although I didn’t know him personally (though I knew his sister, slightly) my brother had the misfortune of interacting with “Rob” a few times in high school.
It shouldn’t come as an surprise that he was just as unpleasant person in high school, as well. It blows my mind that he’s been able to get away with the promoting himself as a voice of the trailer-class. Ugh.
He’s generally well-liked in the area still, unfortunately, because this area is the deepest, darkest red part of Macomb County, aka “Birthplace of the Reagan Democrats”.
(I’ve had some incidental connections with Eminem too – long story – and let’s just say that while he’s got some issues, he’s just several orders of magnitude better a human being than Mr. Ritchie.)
Aleta
@mai naem mobile: If he doesn’t taint their water he’ll try to taint them with a dominating photo pose.
Bill Arnold
@msdc:
Long past time for a drastic reduction of wikileaks’ influence. There are now many alternatives for leaking, that aren’t subject to whatever influences are causing wikilieaks to objectively support fascists by attacking their opponents.
Alternatives:
(Warning!!!; https site for leaddirectory.org doesn’t appear to be configured correctly (or so firefox says) so verify the contents before using)
Leak site directory
But probably best are the securedrop.org sites:
The Official SecureDrop Directory
(securedrop wikipedia article)
Roll your own security can work too IFF leakers know what they are doing, but basically nobody does.
SFBayAreaGal
@HeleninEire: There is no such thing as being neutral. Switzerland was far from neutral during WWII. They were rounding up the Jewish people also.
Uncle Cosmo
@Mr Stagger Lee: We didn’t have photos on the wall, but Dad’s unofficial Holy Trinity was FDR as The Father, JFK as The Son, and…tell you what, extra credit for anyone who can guess who played the Holy Ghost.
Uncle Cosmo
WTF am I in “moderation” for?????????
JMG
The polls in France were dead on in the first round, and they have Macron crushing LePen in the second. The word bourgeois was invented in France for a reason. There are plenty of people, some of whom are my daughter’s co-workers, who have little trouble with LePen’s positions but would never vote for her because it would not be “correct” that is, respectable.
J R in WV
@HeleninEire:
Glad to hear from you. How did the rest of your date go?
Glad you feel remote from Europe. We’re visiting Italy for a week next month, Tuscany and Florence, I’m curious about asylum policy in Italy. Or Ireland, but I would prefer Italy, or Spain.
Geeno
@Uncle Cosmo: Because you asked that