I’ve grown to dislike the data-driven life, and I agree with some of the criticisms of Robby Mook for falling too in love with some big data hocus pocus plan for the Hillary campaign. But the criticisms of the people (Nate Silver, Sam Wang, their UK counterparts) who who were wrong about Brexit and the 2016 presidential election have just gone too far. The vote on the Brexit was quite close, less than four points, and Hillary not only won the popular vote by 2 points but lost three states (which together would have given her the election) by less than one point. So I don’t see how any of this proves the data elite in their Accela corridor bubble are completely wrong about the power of right-wing populism.
There’s a lot of Le Pen can win stuff going around (I’m not surprised that Chris Arnade and Megan McArdle are rooting for her). Meanwhile, Macron’s lead is growing, to nearly 25 points in some recent polls.
After the 2016 election, there was a lot of talk that Sam Wang and Nate Silver had to shut up forever because they were wrong by a few points. Will the people claiming Le Pen can win shut up forever if Macron wins by 20+ points?