Data: voters are less likely to identify as Republican since Donald Trump's election (h/t @gsparks94 @aedwardslevy) https://t.co/vYSzRUjH9g pic.twitter.com/vzbulmrQns
— G. Elliott Morris?? (@gelliottmorris) June 7, 2017
He may not be well-informed about politics, but when it comes to Potemkin-village-style showmanship, Donald Trump knows his audience!
Trump maintains high approval from self-identified Republicans in part by shrinking the number of Republicans. https://t.co/an4o2jImvu
— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) June 8, 2017
And much of that audience is Village-Idiot pundits…
This trend has been visible for months, while the same "Rs still support Trump" stories appeared daily. https://t.co/tVXPMc0Tk8
— Mark Schmitt (@mschmitt9) June 8, 2017
Baud
Good. But no longer identifying as Republicans and not voting Republican are two different things.
O. Felix Culpa
@Baud: Perhaps in their discouragement and/or embarrassment, they neglect to vote? I live in modest hope.
ETA: AL, that movie clip is priceless. Thanks!
Baud
@O. Felix Culpa: That would work too. They are more consistent voters than our side is (and less suppressed), but it’s not as if it’s impossible for them to be discouraged.
WereBear
I want all of the Republicans to stay home on election day, all huffy and Facebooking “We’ll show them!”
And a kitten.
O. Felix Culpa
@Baud: Conversely, I hope that our side is super motivated to get to the polls going forward. No more “no difference between the parties” bullshit. That the kids turned out in yesterday’s UK elections after the Brexit disaster suggests that some people are capable of learning.
Oh, and fighting voter suppression with everything we’ve got is important too.
Eric S.
Good morning from the Chicago Red Line. I know all internet conventions are to say that in the last thread but this thread is so much fresher.
I just wanted to throw out a big thank you to one of you. Last year I had an ant invasion and they were feasting on Ozzie the Cat’s food. One of you, I don’t recall who now, suggested putting His dishes in pie pans surrounded by water. I did that and also had a friend who works as exterminator come in. The ants returned early this year and I went straight to the pie pans. A couple of days not finding food and they are gone.
So whoever you were, THANK YOU!
Baud
@O. Felix Culpa: I hope that too. Don’t know. The attitude seems so embedded. I wouldn’t read too much into the UK election as it relates to us.
p.a.
@Baud: Yes. See this from driftglass. rebranding coming, by 2018, or 2020?
O. Felix Culpa
@Baud: Agreed on not drawing too many inferences for ourselves based on events across the pond. I like to think that some people are capable of learning basic life lessons from experience though. Hopeless optimist, I am.
JPL
I’m reposting the latest Ossoff/Handle poll. http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/06/09/ajc-poll-ossoff-opens-lead-over-handel-in-georgias-6th/ 51/44. As I mentioned below turnout is key, because in my district, conservatives vote.
The election is June 20th, but early voting is underway. Those numbers are strong.
Baud
@O. Felix Culpa:
What other choice is there? Gotta keep trying.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Baud:
Look at this way – these Republican voters been sold the conservative myth that TRUE Conservationism will mean paradise for them since Regan and Trump will be the fourth time it failed. Considering how tepid these voters were to the other GOP candidates last year it’s ether go into wingnut alt facts land or drop out now.
bystander
Just saw Susan Collins on Moanin’ Joe. She reminds me of what the French say: Ah ‘ate ‘er.
eric
@Baud: “The struggle itself towards the heights is enough to fill a man’s heart. One must imagine Sisyphus happy.”
― Albert Camus, The Myth of Sisyphus and Other Essays
Baud
@eric: Go ahead and fancy up my comment, why don’t you?
eric
@Baud: I am auditioning for the role of speech writer for your first State of the Union.
jonas
@Baud: Precisely. “Independents” are mostly just reliably conservative voters too embarrassed to call themselves Republicans.
Baud
@eric: Oh, good call. I suppose it’s bad form to quote myself in a speech when talking about what “A wise man once said…”
Le Comte de Monte Cristo fka Edmund Dantes
Always assume the worst of conservatives – they will ALWAYS be willing to compromise with the harder side of the right to cling to power and shut out liberals. Theresa May joining with the Paisleyite Ulster Unionists to form a government is a case in point. Why worry about Islamic terror when you can reinvigorate the IRA?
O. Felix Culpa
@Baud: LOL. That’s what I love about this blog – the concatenation of the absurd and the sublime.
Baud
@O. Felix Culpa:
Wait…which one am I?
germy
In my town we have the “Independence Party” and they just released their list of endorsements. Surprise, surprise, every name they endorsed is a republican.
The independents are independently republican.
Immanentize
@Baud: You are clearly the concatenation.
ETA. I am personally pro cat nation.
raven
So about three years ago a couple with a child moved in across the street. When the first moved in their maibox post was broken and I went over and fixed. In the interim the mother turned out to be very troubled and forced to leave. The father has bounced from one thing to another, alienated many of the parents at the local school, ing bad paper all over town, and is now being evicted. Some people here thought I was nuts to get involved at all and, I guess, they turned out to be right. We have tried to help when we could but the father has proven to be more that we can handle so we just backed off. The little girl is very sweet and we worry about what is going to happen but it doesn’t seem like there is really anything we can do. such
tobie
@JPL: This is encouraging. I actually think an Ossoff victory would have a huge impact on the Senate’s healthcare plan. Any fence-sitting Senators would get mighty nervous seeing Price’s district turn blue. All this is to say we need to walk, chew gum, carry groceries, herd the kids and/or pets, etc. and work our heart out on this race while keeping the phone lines in the Senate jammed.
hueyplong
@Baud: “Wait, which one am I?”
If you have to ask…
WereBear
@germy: Typical.
MomSense
Along a parallel track with this fewer better Republicans thing, do we have any information on drug use and voting for trump?
I’m wondering about counties with high meth and heroine rates and votes for Dolt 45.
Chris
@jonas:
“Independent” replaces “Republican” as the word defined by “what conservatives call themselves when they’re trying to get laid.”
zhena gogolia
@raven:
I’m sorry. That’s painful.
willard
Reading the press this morning
1) Evidence is not the same as proof beyond a reasonable doubt. We have tons of evidence.
2) It is not a leak for a private citizen to release his recollection of an unclassified conversation
rikyrah
@raven:
Sorry about this. But, you’re a good person. A decent person.
rikyrah
I know that I’ve posted this , but I love it, because of the contradictions.
In their zeal to make excuses and grade on the curve for the inadequate, unqualified White Man in the White House….
they pretend that this is more complex than it is.
Yet, here is Pookey from the Hood..with a mouth full of gold teeth..
Who’s not supposed to be interested in politics..
Who’s not supposed to understand such ‘ complex’ issues..
breaking Comey’s testimony down to the muthaphuckin’ fraction:
https://twitter.com/plies/status/872956528378204160/video/1
MomSense
@raven:
Sorry to hear this, Raven. Do you know if DHS is involved? A good caseworker could help a lot.
hovercraft
@Baud:
Lenny the security guard here is one of those better republican’s, I walked by a few minutes ago and all I caught was but, but Obama was worse, so I just kept walking.
Booger
@jonas: No where is that truer than when you are listening to the callers to C-SPAN’s segregated lines...’independent‘ callers are just republicans without the courage of their convictions.
jeffreyw
@WereBear:
Corner Stone
@rikyrah: “They talking to motherfuckin’ Russia for you! How you ain’t got nothing to do with it?”
hovercraft
@Baud: The Morning Joke crew were noting that Theresa May is a woman of a certain age, widely expected to win based on polling and conventional wisdom, but then she “lost” to a crazy man, just like another woman of a certain age, who knows there may actually be something in all the misogyny stuff. No one there to point out that while Corbyn may not be their cup of tea, he is not Twitler, or that May was part of the austerity that is the cause of much of the populism roiling Britain.
Raven
@MomSense: My assumption is that people at the school are very aware of the situation. He’s become a problem there by writing bad checks for after school programs and such. As I mentioned, we just got burned out and withdrew from other than casual hello type stuff. If we thought a bit of money would help we’d do it but I think it is beyond that.
Spanky
@Baud: Well, if we break “sublime” into it’s component parts, apparently it means you’re beneath a fruit.
Corner Stone
@Booger: They pride themselves on voting for the man! Not the party!
Oddly, the best candidate for every election that earns their vote seems to always have an R by their name.
Jeffro
Funny of the day: Jason Isbell on Twitter after secretly donning a Predators jersey and hitting the ice to play last night…”I’d like to apologize…it was on my bucket list.”
Not-so-funny: Brooksie claiming that “It’s Not The Crime, It’s the Culture” in today’s NYT
Saywhutnow?!?!? And then he spends about half the column noting…yup…Bill Clinton’s many ‘scandals’ and failings, as if they were about the same thing (although he does note Trumpov is a obsessive rageaholic, so, progress!)
Here’s the wrap-up:
Hey Dave, you know what would make it less ugly? If you and those like you didn’t always feel the need for false equivalence or to drag Dems into it (and mostly ginned-up D ‘scandals’ at that). Just help us take out the fucking trash for once without uttering the word “Clinton”. We’ll be a better nation for it.
schrodingers_cat
@Jeffro: Vichy Times aims to be Pravda on the Hudson for the neo Russian regime. I wonder why.
MomSense
@rikyrah:
The thing that flashed all the warning lights at me yesterday was when Comey said that the FBI had information about Sessions that caused him to think Sessions should recuse himself from Russia investigations before Sessions recused himself.
The way I see it he gave the memos to a trusted person outside of government as a way to fight against cover up.
This is really shocking stuff. We are looking at treason at all the highest levels of government.
hovercraft
@germy:
Standard GOP procedure, every time their president becomes unpopular they pretend to abandon the party, W. fucks up Iraq, they become independents, he tanks the economy, they become the Tea Party, now shit for brains can’t stop shitting himself so they are once again calling themselves independents. This is all bullshit, they are republicans, there is a reason that “independents” have voted for the republican nominee in droves for years now, they are embarrassed republicans.
MomSense
@Raven:
No, I don’t think the answer is money. I’m hoping the child has an advocate.
GregB
Every person in Trump’s inner circle looks like they were cast from scumbag central.
Every one of them.
Raven
@MomSense: me too, she’s a sweetheart but seems so lost
hovercraft
@raven:
Sometimes people won’t accept help, but at least you tried. My heart goes out to the little girl.
John S.
@Baud:
They won’t self-identity as vandals, but when they go into the voting booth, they still smear feces all over the walls.
rikyrah
@MomSense:
YES YES YES
T-R-E-A-S-O-N
rikyrah
May isn’t resigning?
How is this possible?
germy
The fewer republicans, the better.
Spanky
@rikyrah:
IOKIYAC
Unknown known
@Baud:
Correct.
The accepted form is to say “As a a good man once said… A wise man. The best man. But not like at a wedding, the best man, the man who is the best. With the best words. And the best brains, everyone says that. Believe me, everybody loves him. And he’s me. That man is me. I said it. In a speech. And I give the best speeches. They’re terrific. The crowds love them. I have the biggest crowds. All my speeches are to the biggest crowd ever, in all of history. Every one of them. Ad lib. No, you don’t write ‘ad lib’ on the prompter, I do that on my own. I do the best ad libs. The words ‘ad’ and ‘lib’ only cling together because they are jealous that they aren’t me.” For bonus points, you then walk out of the room without signing anything.
germy
@hovercraft:
Yes, I started noticing that during the end of W’s second term. “Independent” this, “independent” that. During local elections, campaign flyers in my mailbox with no party affiliation (“He must be a republican” I’d tell my wife) and every time I vote I see judges running on the “independent ticket.”
In order to win, they have to hide their affiliation, they have to lie about their positions, they have to suppress the vote. Not a normal group of people.
rikyrah
Ossoff 51
Handel 44#GA06 ? https://t.co/rthHoYENoV
— Bradd Jaffy (@BraddJaffy) June 9, 2017
rikyrah
Wow. The @NRCC is having a total freakout over #GA06. New ad calls Jon Ossoff a “childish radical.” https://t.co/gObtSgZNhY pic.twitter.com/hpy5vwsBXV
— Russell Drew (@RussOnPolitics) June 9, 2017
rikyrah
The front page of today’s @USATODAY pic.twitter.com/F60gMzBZIN
— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) June 9, 2017
donnah
Republicans voted for Trump as a poke in the eye to Democrats and Federal Government. They did so in spite of every atrocity he committed, from insulting Mexicans to abusing women to being a cheat, liar, and fraud. Literally anything he does gets a shinola treatment from the Administration and FOX news, and the Trump followers believe it.
Whatever these voters claim in public or in polls doesn’t matter. They will continue to cheer Trump and the Republicans on, no matter what. They will give up their pensions, their health care, and their rights because Trump is going after Big Government and every single positive thing Obama put into place.
I got chills yesterday when Comey said that Russia is coming after us. But the Republicans are too busy slashing health care and eliminating big banking safeguards to care about democracy. It’s a nightmare and we can’t seem to wake up.
rikyrah
Dear Mr Attorney General: Go before the Senate Intel Committee and say that under oath. @20committee @morgfair https://t.co/Cfx69Loixz
— John Perkowski (@john_perkowski) June 9, 2017
.@realdonaldtrump isn’t the only one disputing Comey’s testimony https://t.co/GfGr6nVZiY
— Josh Gerstein (@joshgerstein) June 9, 2017
Interesting how Sessions remembers these meetings in detail but forgets that he met with the Russians.
— Jonathan Drake (@Duck_person) June 9, 2017
Unknown known
@rikyrah: Because regardless of votes in the commons, Brexit will largely be negotiated by the executive, and she has to make sure that this is her, so she can finish properly fucking over the country and/or continent.
rikyrah
The President’s Lawyer Fails Miserably in Defending His Client
by Nancy LeTourneau
June 8, 2017 4:42 PM
………………..
Let’s break that defense down into three general categories. First of all, both the president and most Republicans are determined to highlight the statements from Comey about Trump not being personally under investigation. That ignores one of the critical things Comey said during the hearing in response to questions about whether or not the president attempted to obstruct justice.
“I don’t think it is for me to say whether the conversation I had with the president was an effort to obstruct,” Comey said. “I took it as a very disturbing thing, very concerning, but that’s a conclusion I’m sure the special counsel will work toward: to try and understand what the intention was there and whether that’s an offense.”
It sounds like Trump is now the subject of an investigation by Mueller into whether or not he attempted to obstruct justice.
In the second category, Kasowitz said that Trump never suggested that they “let Flynn go” and never asked for Comey’s loyalty. In other words, he wants to make this a he said/he said between Trump and Comey. As Ed Kilgore wrote today, “Trump is not going to win a credibility contest with James Comey.” A president whose supporters have to refer to “alternative facts” and parse out whether he should be taken “literally” or “seriously” is going to lose that contest every time. And that isn’t even taking into consideration that Trump lies an average of five times a day. This is precisely where the president’s mendacity will come back to haunt him.
ruemara
So May isn’t resigning and will try to form a government with Northern Ireland. Yeah, that’s gonna work.
rikyrah
Trump sets up a contest of credibility he simply cannot win
06/09/17 08:42 AM—UPDATED 06/09/17 09:22 AM
By Steve Benen
The list of Donald Trump falsehoods exposed by former FBI Director James Comey over the last two days isn’t short.
Trump was asked on Fox News last month whether he ever asked Comey for his loyalty. Trump responded, “No, I didn’t.” Trump was asked at a White House press conference last month, “Did you at any time urge former FBI Director James Comey in any way, shape, or form to close or to back down the investigation into Michael Flynn?” Trump replied, “No. No. Next question.”
Trump was asked by NBC News’ Lester Holt about the private dinner he had with Comey, and the president said Comey “asked for the dinner.” Trump said Comey had called him on the phone in the weeks that followed to tell the president he wasn’t under investigation. Trump said Comey was fired in part because FBI personnel had “lost confidence” in the bureau’s director.
Each of these claims now appears to be a brazen lie the president told the American public.
But wait, Republicans will argue, we don’t know for sure that Trump was lying. What we have here is a “he said, he said” dispute. For all we know, the GOP argument goes, perhaps Comey’s claims are untrue and the president has been completely honest.
And while that may make the White House and its allies feel better, this posture isn’t quite right.
satby
@raven: it’s so tough to have to witness a kid with bad parents. Is it likely the father would lose custody? Would you be willing to offer to have her stay with you (for what could turn out to be a long time)? It could make a huge difference in that kid’s life.
At least three of the teenaged boys who ended up living with my family were unofficial foster kids, their parents had washed their hands of parenting and were perfectly happy to have their kids gone. None of the kids were particularly troubled, the parents were. One father had been throwing out his kid to sleep in the park starting at age 12, my kids brought him home like a kitten they had found. That foster son is who grew up to be the Marine.
rikyrah
Away from the national spotlight, GOP guts Wall Street safeguards
06/09/17 09:20 AM
By Steve Benen
As much of the country probably noticed, it was a rather dramatic day on Capitol Hill yesterday. The former director of the FBI gave sworn testimony to the Senate Intelligence Committee, suggesting the president of the United States may have obstructed justice. The hearing generated quite a bit of attention, and for good reason: Donald Trump’s presidency is facing a genuine crisis.
But on the other side of Capitol Hill, House Republicans were only too pleased to take advantage of the fact that their latest moves unfolded far from the national spotlight.
…………………………
James Powell
@Baud:
Exactly. I get slammed a lot for being a negative person, but for most of my life all a Republican has had to do to improve his/her standing is run against just about any Democrat.
Jeffro
@hovercraft:
Wait…I hear some of them are “libertarians” too.
noncarborundum
@O. Felix Culpa:
rikyrah
anyone not a WHITE MALE would be afforded this.
under ANY circumstances.
……………………………..
Trump’s allies point to his ignorance and inexperience as a defense
06/09/17 08:00 AM—UPDATED 06/09/17 08:05 AM
By Steve Benen
As Donald Trump’s Russia scandal has intensified, and evidence of alleged obstruction of justice has mounted, the president’s allies have argued repeatedly that the Republican did not do what he’s accused of doing. The allegations, the right has insisted, are wrong.
This week, the party line changed. Maybe he did do some of those things, Trump’s defenders have begun arguing, but it’s just because he’s so ignorant.
Here, for example, is what House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) told reporters yesterday:
Jeffro
@rikyrah: @rikyrah:
Hear that, GOP? That ain’t just a bit of thunder on the horizon…and it won’t be just a little rain coming down, either…
gvg
@raven: Are the father’s problems the kind that mean DHS should be involved? Sometimes even just being poor and a really bad money manager cause DHS to need to step in. They’ll try to find cheap housing but some people can’t even handle things with help and then the children may be put in foster care.
The reason I bring this up is when we did foster parent training, about 1/2 the people in the class were doing it to get custody of a specific child and it wasn’t always family. Sometimes it was long time neighbors who knew the situation or parents of a school friend. People can be very good, but it does take strength and not everyone can do it. One woman was trying to adopt the child of a grown up former foster child of hers who had not handled life well and was in jail. She did succeed in adopting her “foster grandchild” and I run into them at the library sometimes. Another couple was just neighbors.
Teachers often end up being the ones to keep an eye on the children of the feckless. The ones who don’t warrant legal intervention but need extra help.
Frankensteinbeck
@donnah:
Because of. It’s a philosophy of hate. Trump is not an accident, he is what Republican voters want.
Jeffro
@rikyrah: a RICH white male…backed by the Mercers and a hostile foreign power…
Unknown known
@ruemara: Unfortunately it might. The DUP is a seriously regressive political organization, and having travelled through Northern Ireland, and see the phalanxes of British flags lining all kinds of random places at a completely ordinary time of year (nothing wrong with flags per se, but after a certain point you are overcompensating for something), this is not a political culture that is relaxed and sincerely comfortable in its own skin. These guys are going to encourage all of the worst Tory instincts.
Best case scenario is probably that they start making crazy ultimatums and blow everything up – but it would have to be CRAZY, because no way is May giving up the Brexit negotiating mantle unless there is a gun to her head, with the trigger already pulled.
rikyrah
THE RACHEL MADDOW SHOW 6/8/17
Comey testimony fortifies Trump obstruction case
Rachel Maddow looks at how former FBI Director James Comey’s testimony in the Senate raised questions about A.G. Jeff Sessions, and created a serious obstruction of justice evidence problem for Donald Trump.
Jeffro
@Frankensteinbeck:
Trumpov, Ryan, and McConnell are the logical end points for a party that has only one principle: Cleek’s Law
rikyrah
THE RACHEL MADDOW SHOW 6/8/17
Largely corroborated report under fire at Comey hearing
Rachel Maddow shows how a New York Times story criticized as false by James Comey is largely corroborated by other news outlets’ reporting as well as Senate testimony by former DNI James Clapper. So what is he saying they got wrong?
schrodingers_cat
There are some moronic “independents” who fluctuate wildly between lunatic right fringe to the lunatic left. My friend who I have talked about before is one such person. Voted for O twice. First voted for Gore and then Bush II because he would keep us safe. Last year she voted for JS bought all the anti-HRC rhetoric that BS was peddling and then defended the first travel ban.
rikyrah
THE RACHEL MADDOW SHOW 6/8/17
Trump lawyer botches NYTimes Comey memo timeline
Michael Schmidt, New York Times reporter whose work was central to today’s Senate Intelligence Committee hearing, talks with Rachel Maddow about how Donald Trump’s lawyer got the Comey memo timeline wrong in his accusation against the New York Times.
satby
@gvg: there’s a world of kids not with their parents and not in the system either: friends, relatives, neighbors, teachers all stepping up to take care of kids whose parents can’t for multiple reasons. If the parent agrees to have the children left in an alternative situation, and it’s a stable, safe home DCS normally won’t interfere. They have bigger fish to fry.
And no, it’s not easy. But it very often isn’t nearly as difficult as we imagine either.
Doug R
@rikyrah:
Give it 6 months to a year.
James Powell
@Frankensteinbeck:
Absolutely. And the really amazing but not really covered story from 2016 wasn’t Trump beating the horrible Hillary Wall Street email server Clinton, but rather the way he bent, folded, and spindled the well-funded, politically experienced, press/media darlings of the Republican Party.
Fair Economist
@Unknown known:
Who negotiates Brexit is irrelevant, because there will be no deal. There’s not enough time. There’s something like 50 major treaties that have to be negotiated, and many are quite complex in terms of internal conflicts of interest on both side.
In 21 months the British will likely have a choice between a hard Brexit and remaining under EU rules but with no say in them rather like the EFTA (by extending the negotiations). It is possible the rest of the EU will make an example of them and just kick them out.
Emma
@rikyrah: She formed a coalition with the DUP. But all the rumbling says she’s in deep do-do with the Conservative boffins. The DUP is pushing for a soft border between Northern Ireland and the Republic after Brexit, has a hard line opposition to abortion and same-sex marriage, at least one of its leaders is a climate change denier, and have some very conservative tax views. If May caves in on some of these things the Tories might be looking at electorate debacle down the road.
Jeffro
Meanwhile, K-Thug points out the obvious: “Think, for a minute, of just how much damage this man has done on multiple fronts in just five months.”
MEDIA! Let’s see some articles about how well things were running after 8 years’ guidance from the previous WH occupant, please!!
One last chance to get on the right side of history…before the storm breaks…
Unknown known
@Fair Economist: If there was good will on all sides, something would be worked out. With the crazies May has unleashed running it, your scenario is infinitely more likely.
But as of right now the British will not have a choice in 2 years, because May will not give them one. If she has her way, there will be no second referendum or parliament vote to ratify or reject any negotiated deal. She says that this would destroy her negotiating power because then the Euros would just try to offer a horrible deal to make us stay. But if there were a deal, every other EU country would get such a vote to approve their end of it, and apparently that doesn’t destroy their negotiating power.
But unless the DUP screw them over, they now hold all the cards. A prime minister with a majority in parliament is pretty much a benevolent dictator.
The good thing that this election has created is that her majority is going to be razor thin, and so that hands an enormous amount of leverage to her backbenchers, because only a handful of defections would end it all for her. Any backbencher that invoked that power would pay an enormously steep cost for it (Parliamentary systems have much better party discipline), but there are a LOT of MPs, and some of them will be pretty pro-remain… so… Things could end up becoming very fluid again.
All of which, of course, presupposes that Britain COULD call off Brexit, and return to status quo, even if it wanted to. Not at all clear that would be allowed to happen. The EU would probably demand a bit of a steep price for that, including repealing a lot of the special deals that the UK had formerly had running for them.
Peale
@Jeffro: While it will be a shame to go without a modern financial system, I really do think that getting rid of Dodd-Frank so that they can be rich, rich, rich, will blind them again to a disaster. And because of their extremely selfish behavior in 2009 over their precious bonuses, we’ll gladly give up access to cash at ATMs for a few months if that would make them have to sell some art at a loss to feed themselves.
schrodingers_cat
@Frankensteinbeck: Hate and spite is all they have to offer to the 99% who vote for them the top 1% at least get tax-cuts.
Peale
I wish I could get giddy about these kinds of polls, but the Democrats are never behind on party identification, even in 2014 when they were pretty much destroyed as an effective national party. Sorry, but unless this data is plotted on a map, it is worthless.
debit
@Peale: After the polls were so wrong during the last election I have no faith in them and take no comfort in this one. Some Republicans may currently have enough of a sense of shame to be unwilling to identify as such, but that won’t stop them from pulling the lever for the GOP in the privacy of the voting booth.
Amir Khalid
@rikyrah:
The obvious rebuttal is to point out: “A President of the United States simply doesn’t have that excuse.” I wonder if anyone important enough over there is able to say that in public.
hovercraft
@Unknown known:
From The Guardian
Fair Economist
@Unknown known: Brexit tears up *every single one* of Britain’s trade treaties (because they’re written with the EU) and requires them to be renegotiated, in addition to requiring a set of treaties with the EU itself. Doing all that in 21 months is just impossible regardless of the goodwill of the parties involved. Goodwill will affect the treaties that will eventually get written down the line, and the chance Britain will be offered more time in 21 months. I agree May’s reelection will reduce what goodwill is left, and that she’s not going to allow a second referendum, etc.
I do think Brexit will be doom for the Tories. It’s going to be a mess and they will be (rightly) blamed for it. The big problem is that a substantial part of London’s financial business will have to move to the Continent, because the continentals want it, so they’re not going to make the quite generous special deals needed for it all to stay. That’s going to pop London’s monstrous housing bubble and produce a depression. It’s going to be very ugly, and with her reduced majority May will probably get forced into an election in the middle of it. IMO her main goal in this election was to delay the next election, which would have happened smack in the middle of it. That has effectively failed, because she doesn’t have a government strong enough to soldier on through an economic crash and depression.
Unknown known
@debit: The polls weren’t all that wrong in the aggregate. They said a 3% lead, and it was 2%. Factor in the undecideds breaking at the last minute for Trump, and they were pretty much bang on. The problem was the distribution, and Trump squeaking out some very VERY close results in a couple of states.
The problem wasn’t the polls, it was the models that were built on them. Five Thirty Eight (and the Trump guys internal polls) said that Hillary was more likely to win, but might not, because they took more seriously the possibility of correlated error – that something could drive several close states in the same direction, all together. When that happens, extremely unlikely things can suddenly happen. It may be very rare to roll ten dice, and get all fives and sixes, but if something suddenly adds 2 to each dice roll, then it can become really quite likely – without necessarily making that much difference to each individual dice roll.
Unknown known
@Fair Economist: There’s a lot of truth in that, but if both sides were coming with full goodwill, there would be options. You wouldn’t try to negotiate everything in full, all at once. You would presumably have to set up a series of phased withdrawals that set up the UK pulling out a bit at a time, as negotiations happened.
Take the Tories “great repeal bill” – they want out from European law, but even they don’t want to re-invent it all from scratch. That just would not be possible. So they have a bill that incorporates all existing European law into the British law, en masse, with the option that Britain could then go about change bits it didn’t like after exit. With that kind of kludge you could spread things out a fair bit, and give yourself breathing room.
Even moves this aren’t easy though, of course. They’re discovering, frinstnace, that you can’t just port European law in DIRECTLY into the books of a fully independent UK, because tons of bits of it refers to specific EU institutions that need to be consulted in different eventualities, so all those need replacing with some UK equivalent…. which may or may not exist.
(so yes, even a good will clean Brexit was always going to be a huge freaking mess, which is part of why it was such a spectacularly DUMB idea to to start with, but that’s a rant for another day).
Laura
@Baud: Baud: “Wait, which one am I?”
Yes.
hovercraft
@Amir Khalid:
Or better still point out that the reason we have a two month transition period, a tax payer funded transition headquarters and complete access to outgoing officials and a :deep state” is so that all this stuff can be explained, is just so that each new administration can be brought up to speed on how to run a nation this size. Even if his bullshit claims about his company were true, it is a tiny speck compared to the Federal Government. Did the moron follow any of the protocols and procedures set up for the transition? Of course not, he sat in Tacky Tower and made people trek up there to kiss his ring, the transition offices in DC were basically empty except for a few low level staffers who I’m sure have never spoken to him or his inner circle. When they did get into the WH, they all blew off the ethics meetings, and fired everyone who knew their asses from a hole in the ground. These people are the asshole who kills his parents and then pleads for clemency because he’s an orphan. He’s unqualified, his appointees are unqualified, his staff is unqualified, and his family unqualified and corrupt.
Jeffro
This deserves its own thread: J-Rubs, Comey’s Testimony Changed Everything, and Not In Trump’s Favor
You see, there was ‘Before Comey’, and now there is ‘After Comey’, for the GOP:
Jeffro
zhena gogolia
@rikyrah:
As they say in Russia, “Fantastika!”
Peale
@Unknown known: And these results weren’t wrong per se, because Democratic Candidates overall recieved more votes in 2014 (or something like that), its just that all those votes for Governor Brown and Mario Cuomo look great on paper, but they don’t make up for losses in places like Maryland, Illinois, and Massachusetts.
Jeffro
as a “PS”: take a minute today and think about how far we have come in a very (relatively) short while…shocked speechless by Trumpov’s election ‘win’ seven months ago, we are now at the point where this is dominating the news coverage every day and jamming up much of the GOP’s ability to do damage to the Obama Admin’s achievements. We’re openly talking about impeachment in regular, mainstream media. There’s a special counsel in place. Kushner is in serious trouble, as are Sessions and Trumpov himself.
It didn’t, and still doesn’t, have to be this hard (thanks, GOP cretins!) But slowly and surely things are turning around.
hovercraft
@Jeffro:
It’s June of his first year in office. it will get worse, we are overdue for a recession.
“keep fucking that chicken GOP”
sukabi
It’s the “little” obstructions that may be drumpfs tipping point for repubs..
Miss Bianca
@rikyrah: that is a thing of such mf’ing beauty, there’s tears in my eyes. Thank you for reposting!
Miss Bianca
@Jeffro:
Truth.
Mike in DC
“Recent event/election outcome X confirms that only my candidate/policy preferences Y can save the party/lead the party to success.”
Lather. Rinse. Repeat.
Stan
@Unknown known: I’ve spent a lot of time in Northern Ireland too, and those union jacks in all the unionist neighborhoods (not really ‘random places’ although I can see how you might think so) crack me up. These folks are INSISTING they’re British, goddamit. And I don’t think they know that the English consider them Irish regardless. That would really frost them. To paraphrase “The Commitments”, the irish are the blacks of the UK.
Stan
@satby:
Yes, and as the child of one of those kids – PLEASE help out who you can. Even little stuff. You really can change a life and then the lives of a whole following generation.
SteveKnNKY
I like Yglesias’ tweet. it conveys the same idea Cardinal Ratzinger held about the Catholic Church. Smaller, purer, rotten at the core but that is okay. everyone is lock step with blinders.
No One You Know
@Jeffro: Consumer protections from investment predators have been rolled back as of today. The AHCA allegedly meets reconciliation requirements and it’s being scheduled for a vote. Disability payments in Social Security got trashed in The Washington Post today. If I heard all of these things correctly, we are not slowly turning anything right. The gap opening between Republicans and Trump mean we get bread and circuses with Trump as the target, while the Republicans do what they want with their majorities.
How is that better news?