Dean Heller (R-NV) is the most vulnerable Republican Senator in 2018. He is the only one who represents a state that Hillary Clinton won in 2016. Public Policy Polling has come out with an early poll on his re-elect chances. In a sample where Trump is only six points underwater, Heller is thirteen points underwater. More importantly, he is down seven points against a generic Democratic opponent. This is seventeen months out from the election.
He has more than a generic opponent:
Dem source confirms what I have been reporting: @repjackyrosen gearing up for race against @SenDeanHeller. Will announce after 2Q.
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) June 19, 2017
She is a recently elected Representative who swung a seat from red to blue in 2016.
So what does this mean?
It means that it is time to make Senator Heller extremely nervous about his re-election chances in a state where he is already facing an up-hill battle. If yo live in Nevada, call him and tell his office interns your opinion on the AHCA.
randy khan
Call even if you don’t live in Nevada. If you call before or after office hours and leave a message, they don’t get a chance to ask where you live.
weaselone
I’m going to go contrarian on this one. It looks like Heller is toast, regardless of how he votes on the ACHA. This means his smart move is to pass the ACHA and line up the sweetest wingnut welfare gig possible. 7 figures are year to run a think tank from a tropical paradise sounds about right.
rikyrah
Call call call
raven
yo
Just One More Canuck
@raven: My condolences to you
raven
@Just One More Canuck: Oh, thanks. I’m just waiting for word on arrangements before I can book a flight. I haven’t heard a peep from anyone in LA since Sunday but they said they’d let me know so I’m not going to bug them.
Barbara
@weaselone: And Toomey and Johnson should have been toast but they weren’t. The lure of power is so intoxicating, no wingnut welfare gig holds even a pale flicker to the burning flame of wielding power over people’s lives. The harsh reality is that even after you get power, many people cling to the pre-power sense of themselves, and rarely gain an understanding of what it means to wield power with humility. There was an article in the Washington Post about “poor, poor” Jamie Gorelick losing friends and influence in the Democratic Party because of her representation of Jarvanka — the quotes from her about providing equal access to legal services make it sound like she is representing a heinous murderer in a capital case no one else would agree to take. It’s puke worthy.
Keith P.
MSNBC just reported that Steve Bannon texted a reporter that the reason Sean Spicer is doing his press briefings off camera as “He got fatter.” Ouch (but then, it begs the question, why is Donald Trump still on camera?)
Barbara
@Keith P.: These people are just sociopaths.
FlipYrWhig
@Keith P.: We should all aspire to the camera-ready face and physique of Steve Bannon.
liberal
@Barbara: Yeah, but that problem is true for lawyers more generally. They always use the excuse that everyone is entitled to representation.
Unless they start adhering to some kind of “taxicab queue” model of representation, the claim that they’re entirely off the hook for their choice of clients is ridiculous on its face.
mai naem mobile
I have a family friend from Vegas who has been calling Heller. She says the office is saying he’s going to vote against. She also says Reid has a son who should run against Heller because of the Reid machine.
Barbara
@liberal: Most lawyers will represent anyone willing to pay, within the bounds of ethics and legality because most lawyers don’t have clients lining up to hire them. When you have the kind of money and cachet that Gorelick does, you have a lot more choice in who you agree to represent, and you have to consider that you were chosen as much for the halo effect of your reputation as for the caliber of your legal services. She seems willfully obtuse about that, but the commenters were not.
hovercraft
@weaselone: While I don’t doubt he’d be able to support himself on the circuit, I don’t think he’d be a star, he doesn’t have a high enough profile or the charisma. Side question, is there a saturation point, at what point are there just so many whackjobs out there that it no longer pays? I suspect never, maybe it’s like peak wingnut ……..
hovercraft
@Keith P.:
Says who? According to my White House sources, he simply became more vertically challenged.
But her emals!!!
@Barbara:
I’m just not sure the individual power is accumulated or functions the same way within the Republican Party anymore. Individuals like Graham or McCain that wield power independent of the Republican Party seem to be a vanishing breed. The path to power within the Republican Party seems to be in forming power blocks inside the party, largely to be miserable shits, but ultimately voting the way the donors who control the money and party want you to vote. If you don’t, you get tarred as a rhino and face a well funded primary opponent with the backing of the Republican affiliated PACs and other organization. Simply put, having your own organization and power base as a Republican politician is increasingly less important than being a Republican in good standing with the party and donors. You can look at the Ossoff – Handel race as an example. Much of Ossoff’s cash is from individual donors. Spending on Handel is dominated by Republican and Republican affiliated groups and PACs. She has far fewer dollars donated directly to her campaign, and even that is heavily connected to fundraising appearances by Pence, Trump and other national figures.
Amanda in the South Bay
@mai naem mobile: I think a Dem
NV rep has already thrown her hat into the ring.
Elizabelle
@Keith P.: Bannon being such sleek GQ material himself. LOL. No idea if that’s true, or if it was said tongue in (jowly) cheek.
feral1
Looks like Capito is on the fence. Anyone in WV should be making calls.
https://twitter.com/TopherSpiro/status/877189701316247553