Remember when Republicans were angry because they didn't flip San Francisco to RED in last election? Neither do I.
— Darren Hutchinson (@dissentingj) June 21, 2017
It’s occurred to too few people these seats were open bc Pence/Priebus wouldn’t appoint anyone from a seat not considered completely safe
— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) June 21, 2017
So, yay Newt Gingrich’s former constituents, Karen Handel gets to sit in Congress… for the next 500 days. We get to piss & moan tonight, and then we start working to ensure she’s another one-abbreviated-term wonder, like Scott ‘Cosmo Boy’ Brown. And while a certain amount of bitterness is understandable, let’s keep the knife fights for when we’re facing down the Repubs, ‘kay?
Worth remembering that the two seats tonight that are both running close were won by GOP candidates 7 months ago by 23.4 and 20.5 points.
— Philip Bump (@pbump) June 21, 2017
Jason Kander on CNN: "In each special election the Democrats are getting more votes than they got in November."
— Al Giordano (@AlGiordano) June 21, 2017
And Handel outspent Ossoff by a factor of over 2.5.
Can the GOP afford to do that in every race in 2018? https://t.co/4jMJq704zw
— Rhiannon (@prhiannon) June 21, 2017
…and don't assume there's any one magic indicator for which districts will flip.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) June 21, 2017
Stealing one would feel great, no doubt, but 2018 is the prize when it's all 435 up for grabs plus literally thousands of other races.
— Salacious Materiel (@ZeddRebel) June 21, 2017
Vidya Pradhan
Amen
John Revolta
Don’t let’s think that because they’re squeaking by in these races the Repubs aren’t freaking out. The idiots will gloat but the guys in charge know they’re in some deep shit.
NotMax
Breast beating, self-flagellation and hairshirts ain’t my bag.
magurakurin
Quist sort of did the “Bernie” way in Monatna…lost. Ossof did the sensible centrist in GA….lost. I think it is time for people to stop deep soul searching about what is the problem with the Democratic Party and admit that the problem is with the electorate…lot’s of shitty people. The party always has room for improvement and should definitely compete everywhere, everytime…but throwing out the whole thing and starting from scratch…yeah, dumb.
also, too white voters cannot be trusted to do the right thing…they never do. We can’t look to them to save things. White liberal/progressives must maintain a strong coalition with POC, minorities and immigrants…only way forward.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@John Revolta: Via Rick Wilson’s twitter, this guy is a Republican consultant
I think we’re a year a way from even starting to make any predictions about 2018, but the same sort of trends that asserted themselves today will assert themselves in a year, most importantly the party in power loses House seats. Somebody on MSNBC was speculating about R retirements, which will loosen up some races, I imagine. I wouldn’t be surprised if Issa, for instance, chose to exit gracefully. Hasn’t he always wanted to move up? He can still get an embassy or something from trump. Or Pence.
NotMax
Musically speaking, sound advice.
Tissue Thin Pseudonym
I spent the weekend enjoying myself at 4th Street Fantasy. Met a few people (including Iowa Old Lady); socialized with some that I already knew; sat through panels on a number of interesting topics, and a few uninteresting ones; and I think it dislodged something in regards to getting my own writing going again.
Today, though, the con’s Facebook page blew up over a wildly inappropriate rant one well established author let loose during the opening ceremonies. Granted, I’m participating in said blow up, because, hey, wildly inappropriate rant and the people defending it are assholes. Frankly, I’m hoping that this leads to the disappearance of a contingent of regular attendees in a huff. The established asshole author has, apparently, been pushed off of the con’s board, so there’s a start.
Ladyraxterinok
We have to work on reversing voter suppression ALL THE TIME. Not restart 4 or so months before each cycle. We have to watch each stage of tennesee voting precess vigilantly.
NotMax
@Jim, Foolish Literalist
Or be tapped for v.p. if/when Pence moves up?
(Oy vey.)
Ruckus
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Issa doing anything gracefully would be the first time. I wouldn’t care if he slithered out like the snake that he is. And remember his has been a safe seat for a while and he didn’t win by much last time. Now yes it is blue CA but there are a lot of red in that sea of blue. I’d bet there is much less in 18.
How often does a special election cause a change in parties? I wonder how many vote to “honor” the party that won a regular election, even if the reason for the replacement was due to some unsavory thing on the part of the incumbent?
Brachiator
Fortunately, there’s some fun international news to divert us from the recent elections.
This should provide lots of fun for Trump’s cracker jack foreign policy team.
NotMax
@Brachiator
Adam offered an insightful reaction to that inside the downstairs thread.
Steve in the ATL
@Ruckus:
In the House? Never.
Ladyraxterinok
@Ladyraxterinok: THE voting process. Ñew tablet.
JPL
@Steve in the ATL: I can’t imagine why, but I tossed and turned and finally got up.
JPL
This is from the Washington Post
Ossoff chose civility and it didn’t work. How do Democrats beat Trump?
TenguPhule
@Brachiator:
So he just shit on the person who knows where the bodies are buried and more likely then not has contacts with Al Queda.
I’m sure nothing could possibly go wrong. //
TenguPhule
@JPL:
Two by Four, Nine Iron, Lead Pipe, Wooden bat?
Steve in the ATL
@JPL: me too!
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
Georgia 6th District
2002: R win by 59%
2004: R win by 100%
2006: R win by 45%
2008: R win by 37%
2010: R win by 99%
2012: R win by 29%
2014: R win by 32%
2016: R win by 24%
2017: R win by 04%
The math tells me a 20 point shift wasn’t good for gop fortunes.
Le Comte de Monte Cristo fka Edmund Dantes
It took the loss of a set of skyscrapers, an American city and a slew of Iraqis and Americans in a poorly planned war to flip Congress a decade ago.
And lest we forget – John McCain named a stone cold moron as VP and was STILL running tight up until the financial world blew up.
It takes that much to move a mostly stupid, corrupt and evil white electorate.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
Imagine if the Dems held a deeeeeeeep blue seat that they consistently won by 25 points in a blue state that hadn’t gone outright red in 40 years and then nearly lost it in a special election.
It would be mass panic.
No reason it shouldn’t be when the shoe is on the other foot.
SectionH
@Tissue Thin Pseudonym: Well, you could have been at Midwestcon, but hey. Even we don’t go there any more.
SectionH
Happy Solstice to All, whichever ways your lights go.
Kryptik
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch:
Of course it shouldn’t be different. In a fair world, it wouldn’t be different. We’re not in a fair world, not by a longshot. We live in a world where every GOP victory, even the moral ones, will always be treated as proof that America and God loves Republicans and Dems are going to hell. Dems meanwhile aren’t allowed even moral victories, because they’re “bad people” and bad people are supposed to lose, therefore everything a Dem does will be a loss somehow.
The only way we can win with this goddamn country is to win, outright, because anything else will simply be proof that “America hates Democrats forever”
JPL
@TenguPhule: That is not good, but Trump will be to busy today gloating about Handel’s victory to notice.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch:
Scott Brown.
BlueDWarrior
@Kryptik: Even when Dems win, as in 2006-09, it was only because God and America was punishing Republicans for their hubris. Everything is a success for the Republicans, and a detriment to Democrats, now and forever more.
So you can see why some people on the left, in various capacities, end up becoming neurotic.
Le Comte de Monte Cristo fka Edmund Dantes
@BlueDWarrior:
Essentially, the median voting polity of this country is represented by a white guy with a Facebook profile photo of a pickup truck with a “Rollin’ Coal” bumper sticker and a confederate flag flying on his porch.
Mike J
@David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch:
And the candidate that sliced 20 points off a Dem seat would be hailed as the next Reagan with columns in the all the right newspapers suggesting he run for god-emperor.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@BlueDWarrior:
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo fka Edmund Dantes: So we should curl into a ball and have a good cry? Got it.
BlueDWarrior
@?BillinGlendaleCA: Well no. The whole game is to convince your (the activist Democrat’s) only options are burning it all to the ground, self-exile, or quiet acquiesence.
The last thing they want is a long drawn out conflict that might actually change hearts and minds; better to fight an eternal political war where you can rely upon most men’s natural inclination toward tribalism.
JPL
Yesterday’s news
Ossoff lost
Pompeo gave classified information to Flynn, while he was under investigation
Saudi king anointed his son to be heir to the throne. The same son, who appears to be behind the split with Qatar.
Elizabelle
Other good news: dudebro Travis Kalanick got booted out at Uber. Shareholder revolt. Had my doubts he would ever actually return from his “sabbatical”, but happy to see action was so swift and so decisive.
And thank you for taking this tack on the GA election (and we have not even discussed South Carolina, which was also not a rout). Stayed out of the election threads last night when I saw the Eeyores were out in force. Courage, people.
Mustang Bobby
I got a “Democrats in Disarray” e-mail from Chris Cillizza this morning saying that Ossoff blew an easy win. San Frijoles, but that man is just too dumb to play dead in a cowboy movie.
The only reason I don’t unsubscribe from his list is because I am doing an in-depth study on the limits of stupidity, which appears to be infinite.
weaselone
This simply isn’t true. Totaling direct campaign spending and campaign spending by outside groups, Ossoff outspent Handel by about 10 million. I actually think the SC election might be a better model to look at going forward. If we can make those sort of races competitive in 2018 with only a little investment, we can give Democrats a better chance in the closer races by limiting the money imbalance. We might also be able to refine our methods and sneak in a couple of wins if we can goose our voter turnout a little bit more or get some 3rd party candidates to split the Republican votes.
JPL
@Mustang Bobby: I went to bed early, and haven’t read the overnight threads. One thing I noticed was that after Handel received the disgusting mailer and white powder, the repubs got riled up, and the momentum changed. I do hope that they find who ever sent the envelopes.
Elizabelle
@Mustang Bobby: Einstein could have told you that.
Elizabelle
@JPL: Yes. Not to mention the shooting at the Republican congresscritters. (And blast me, but I wish that man had been a more accurate shooter. Of the congresscritters, not the police assigned to protect their coddled asses.)
AnonPhenom
LOL!
“BernieBro, BernieBro, BernieBro”
kd bart
@David Canadian Anchor Baby Koch: You mean like the special election held for Bucerra’s seat in downtown LA that the GOP basically did not even contest?
Anya
@magurakurin: I kinda agree with this. Handel won because she appealed to the racists, homophobic base and enough liberal minded people didn’t show up to say: “not in 2017, mofo!” On the other hand, she barely won a seat that was a solid red just few months ago.
I’ve read lots of tweets from left leaning pundits talking about how democrats need a message and not only focus on “Trump hate”. Well, Osseff did that and he sliced 20 points out of a deep red seat. I think we have a huge chance of taking the house. There are plenty of seats that are barely red and we need to put our efforts there. Also, I hope the days of Dems ceding any seats are gone. The takaway from this should be that we compete everywhere with credible candidates.
David ?Canadian Anchor Baby? Koch
@kd bart: That’s hilarious. the republican in that special election got 3.75% of the vote (that’s not a misprint).
FlipYrWhig
@Anya: Pundit’s fallacy, of course: far too many lefties have this idea that what the country wants is more lefties, even though there aren’t many of them now and the vast majority of the people they, the pundits, think they’ll manage to reach with a left message _actively hate anything they can be told is a left message._ The people who vote for Republicans are motivated by spite and hatred. They don’t give a shit about a “message.” The message is to stick it to the libs who think they’re better than them. That’s all they care about.
kd bart
@David Canadian Anchor Baby Koch: If the GOP got 30% in that primary, they would declare it a major victory.
D58826
OK a few thoughts on the election yesterday in the GA-06 starting with events in DC.
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/house-republicans-block-russia-sanctions-bill/ar-BBCXS89?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=iehp
David (hardly a whiny Democratic liberal) Frum’s reaction in the Atlantic
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/06/its-trumps-party-now/531066/
And my 1/2 cents worth:
1. I agree with most of the tweeter comments above.
2. GA06 is a deeply red district and the D’s made a lot of progress in cutting the margin from 20 points to 4. that’s the good news.
3. The bad news is that Hillary lost by 2 points while Ossoff lost by 4.
4. You can call it the glass is half full or half empty but a loss is still a loss whiter by 1 vote or 1 million. Close only counts in horseshoes.
5. As Frum notes this is an urban, well educated affluent district. Maybe the D’s have bigger problems than just appealing to high-school level WWC voters in in fly over country
6. From what I have read both candidates were not overly popular.
7. There were no hot button local issues
8. A democratic win would not have changed the balance of power in the House but it would have been good for moral and fund raising.
9. If ever there was a freebie symbolic protest vote election this one was it.
10. What with one thing and another maybe 2016 can be explained by an unhappy electorate willing to take a chance on Trump (I know Hillary won the PV by 3 million but the name of the game is the EV)
11. But after 5 months of Trump antics, incompetence, Russian ties and turning the WH into a family business 52% of this urban, well educated, affluent district where still willing to say they supported his conduct and don’t care about his ignoring the Constitution and the governing norms that have been in place for 200+ years
12. Now maybe they will tell interviewers that that have concerns but J. McCain has lots of concerns but he still votes straight party line.
13. By the same token, they have said that they don’t care that the Congress is failing to perform it mandated role in over sight and checks and balance on the executive.
14. To put it a different way they don’t care that Trump is willing to metaphorically murder 23 million Americans on prime time TV in Time Square and that the GOP in Congress will supply the ammo and cheer him on from the side lines.
15. Does any of this mean anything for 2018. Who knows. A lot can happen over the next 18 months.
16. I think the D’s should stop obsessing over the WWC in fly over country or the folks suffering from economic anxiety.
17. After 6 months of listening to talk show hosts, reading the VSP in the media and reading the comments here on BJ, I think we are at the point where we have 6 blind people describing the donkey. Each person does an excellent job of describing his/her piece of the critter but to win elections you have to describe the entire critter in a way that you can sell to the electorate. I think now is a good time to get started
And if I hand any ideas on how to do this I would have charged a lot more than 1/2 a cent for this rant
geg6
@Anya:
Yes, this. I refuse to give in to the Eeyores. We have a good chance of taking the House next year. I’m putting my head down and working it hard. At the very least, I can say I did all I could.