Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

The US Supreme Court is on the ballot in november.

And now I have baud making fun of me. this day can’t get worse.

Imperialist aggressors must be defeated, or the whole world loses.

My right to basic bodily autonomy is not on the table. that’s the new deal.

You are so fucked. Still, I wish you the best of luck.

Do not shrug your shoulders and accept the normalization of untruths.

Come on, man.

They were going to turn on one another at some point. It was inevitable.

When you’re in more danger from the IDF than from Russian shelling, that’s really bad.

Shallow, uninformed, and lacking identity

If you are still in the gop, you are either an extremist yourself, or in bed with those who are.

Putin must be throwing ketchup at the walls.

When I decide to be condescending, you won’t have to dream up a fantasy about it.

I’m starting to think Jesus may have made a mistake saving people with no questions asked.

Republicans: slavery is when you own me. freedom is when I own you.

When do we start airlifting the women and children out of Texas?

Baby steps, because the Republican Party is full of angry babies.

… pundit janitors mopping up after the gop

Red lights blinking on democracy’s dashboard

You can’t love your country only when you win.

They fucked up the fucking up of the fuckup!

I’d try pessimism, but it probably wouldn’t work.

No Justins, No Peace

Be a traveling stable for those who can’t find room at the inn.

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Archives for June 2017

Monday Even Open Thread: At Least We’ll Die Fighting

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Apart from that, what’s on the agenda for the evening?

For y’all to forward on social media…

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CBO score on the BCHA

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The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released their budget and coverage score for the Better Care Reconciliation Act (BCRA), the Senate’s tax cut and Medicaid slashing bill.

I was out at the playground with my kids as the score was released so I had no instant reaction.

However here are some of the important points:

It’s a tax cut bill with Medicaid pay-fors.

The CBO does not think a 58% actuarial value plan with a $7,000 or more deductible is a near substitute for a Medicaid plan with no or minimal deductibles.

Compared to the House, the Senate bill is slightly less atrocious on Medicaid and takes more money out of the individual market.

The all out assault on the 1332 waiver will destroy the individual market in states that push the BCRA’s 1332 process to the outer limits.

The cynical take is that Mitch McConnell has $200 billion that he can throw around to buy votes. If Senator Capito and Portman want $30 billion for opioids, they can get it. If Senator Murkowski wants $5 billion for super large, low density state subsidy top-ups, she gets it for Wyoming and Alaska. If Senator Cassidy thinks that throwing $20 billion at NICU’s to protect himself from “Kimmel Rule” attacks, he can get it. This pot of money defines the possibility space of the arm twisting.

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Started humming a song from 1962

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I thought I’d do a follow-up to the oldies thread I did before. First, the good: what are your top 5 Motown songs from all time? I’ll go with

1. You’re All I Need To Get By
2. Band of Gold
3. Nowhere To Hide
4. Papa Was A Rolling Stone
5. Tears Of A Clown

And now for the ugly. I was thinking the other day about what one thing from routine would I like to be different in order for my life to be better. And I realized it would probably be not having to hear so much Michael Bubble Buble when I go grocery shopping. It got me thinking: why is is there so much bad Canadian music? Although Canada has one-tenth the population of the US, I’d say that close to half of the truly awful things on the radio are Canadian. One theory is that production of awful music in a country is proportional to the land mass of the country, not to the population.

So what are the worst Canadian songs of all time?

1. The Bryan Adams song from Don Juan of de DeMarco
2. I Just Haven’t Met You Yet — Michael Bubble Buble
3. My Heart Will Go On — Celine Dion
4. Freewill — Rush
5. The Bryan Adams song from Robin Hood

What are yours?

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No one said it was gonna be easy

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If you get a chance, try to call your Senator today and ask that Senator to oppose the Senate’s health care bill. You can try district offices if they DC number is busy. Even if you’ve got a Democratic Senator, this can help in terms of keeping tallies of calls for and against.

Whatever happens with the bill, we’re likely to be in great shape to make some gains in the House. If you want to give some money that gets spread among all 238 districts currently held by Republicans, you can do so here:

Goal Thermometer

Update. Please use the comments to discuss any protests that you are hearing about against Trumpcare and anything else that we can do to stop it.

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Team Sauron Shoots, Scores

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Bad news from the Supreme Court, via WaPo:

The Supreme Court agreed on Monday to allow a limited version of President Trump’s ban on travelers from six mostly Muslim countries to take effect, and will consider in the fall the president’s broad powers in immigration matters in a case that raised fundamental issues of national security and religious discrimination.

The court made an important exception: it said the ban “may not be enforced against foreign nationals who have a credible claim of a bona fide relationship with a person or entity in the United States.”

The court also said in the ruling that it would consider whether the case will be moot by the time it hears it; the ban is supposed to be a temporary one while the government reviews its vetting procedures.

The action means that the administration may impose a 90-day ban on travelers from Libya, Iran, Somalia, Sudan, Syria and Yemen and a 120-day ban on all refugees entering the United States, with the exceptions noted by the court.

Team Trump said the 90-day ban was necessary to allow the administration to put its “extreme vetting” policies in place. At this point, 156 days have elapsed since the shitgibbon was sworn in, so it makes no sense logically to impose the ban now.

But this was never about logic or sound security policy; it was about codifying anti-Muslim bigotry to please Trump and his xenophobic, anti-Muslim base. Mission accomplished.

The Supreme Court will also hear a public accommodation case in the fall. Again, WaPo:

The Supreme Court on Monday said it will consider next term whether a Denver baker unlawfully discriminated against a gay couple by refusing to sell them a wedding cake.

Lower courts had ruled that Jack Phillips, the owner of Masterpiece Cakeshop, had violated Colorado’s public accommodations law, which prohibits refusing service to customers based on factors such as race, sex, marital status or sexual orientation.

There are similar lawsuits from florists, calligraphers and others who say their religious beliefs won’t allow them to provide services for same-sex weddings. But they have found little success in the courts, which have ruled that public businesses must comply with state anti-discrimination laws.

I’m not a lawyer, but the fact that the Supreme Court will hear this case at all strikes me as ominous. It’s an opportunity for people who use religion to justify their bigotry to get cover of law to exercise their prejudice. Of course, in the best case scenario, gay folks’ full equality could be upheld, but why is it in question?

Interested to hear from our legal beagles on these issues.

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Medicaid and the private market

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I’m trying not to swear as much in public writing anymore as I like my communications director too much.

But WHAT….

Avik Roy on how he sees the Senate bill in a Vox interview:

There’s been a lot of commentary on the left about how this bill allegedly erodes the safety net. It does no such thing. It replaces the Medicaid expansion under Obamacare with tax credits to buy individually purchased insurance.

His point is that people who make under 133% FPL can buy a 58% Actuarial Value (AV) plan for between 2.0% and 2.5% of income. Voila, it is the same.

REALLY!

Currently, people who make under 100%-138% FPL are either eligible for Cost Sharing Reduction Silver plans at 94% AV or qualify for Medicaid expansion. In Expansion states, people making under 100% of FPL qualify for Medicaid expansion at 98% to 100% AV. People in non-expansion states who earn under 100% FPL are better off as they currently get nothing and they could get something.

He is arguing that a 58% AV plan will be the same thing. A 58% AV plan has a $7,000 or more deductible in 2018. 94% CSR plans are $300 deductibles. Even being charitable and saying that the state stability and innovation funds can be used in place of CSR funding for these populations, the money is insufficient to bring the AV up to anything remotely close to what they are currently receiving through Medicaid or CSR Silvers.

Under the most favorable reading to Roy, he is advocating $2,000 or more individual deductibles for people currently on Medicaid expansion. We know from the Rand Health Insurance Experiment that there is a significant population who has worse health outcomes when their care is subject to light cost sharing (hint, $2,000 or 12% or more of single individual income is heavy cost sharing). And that population is people with low incomes**.

So there is not just a difference in degree but in kind between Medicaid and Silver CSR cost sharing and his preferred cost sharing levels for people with low incomes. That difference is sufficient to say that Medicaid as we know it is destroyed in concept and execution under the Senate bill for the Expansion population.

** Ware JE Jr, Brook RH, Rogers WH, Keeler EB, Davies AR, Sherbourne CD, et al. Comparison of health outcomes at a health maintenance organisation with those of fee-for-service care. Lancet 1986;1(8488):1017-22.

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