Status of Motion to Proceed vote
Collins: ❌
Moran: ❌
Paul: ❌
Lee: ❌
Heller: ?
Capito: ?
Portman: ?
Murkowski: ?Three GOPers ❌ stops bill.
— Dan Diamond (@ddiamond) July 18, 2017
The BCRA is in critical condition. Senators Moran (R-KS) and Lee (R-UT) both came out as No votes on the Motion to Proceed. Right now the whip count is 47 Yes votes, 52 No Votes and Senator McCain not voting.
Moran’s statement is the more interesting one. He wants regular order and probably a 60 vote threshold:
My full statement opposing this version of BCRA: pic.twitter.com/CUq4Kibe0I
— Jerry Moran (@JerryMoran) July 18, 2017
60 votes means everyone is responsible and no one is to blame. This is speculation but that is a logical gaming out of the entire scenario that he seems to be implying.
Besides junking a couple of posts that I had either scheduled or at least half written, I’m not going to be responding too quickly tonight. We are winning. Our phone calls matter. Our data matter. Our stories matter. Keep on telling those stories as we call into the Senate tomorrow. Let’s sink the reconciliation process for healthcare and then figure out what a 60 vote world looks like and what could be desirable.
So celebrate tonight and then let’s get back to work tomorrow afternoon!
Update 1 The happiest unemployed guy in America:
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) July 18, 2017
Update 2 The cascade looks like it is starting
***John McCain*** torches BCRA on its deathbed:
Says start over with bipartisan process. pic.twitter.com/vJOOAbSBRF— Steven Dennis (@StevenTDennis) July 18, 2017
Baud
I’ll say again, Cruz will come out as a no now too.
Trentrunner
Worth reading Robert Costa on Twitter @Costareports on why:
Omnes Omnibus
Celebrate tonight, call tomorrow.
? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?
I find it interesting that Moran, a Republican, actually brought up the fact that the entire process was closed-door as a negative. The BCRA and the AHCA are what you get with a closed-door process that tries to ram a bill into law. The system was never designed to be that way for a reason.
And isn’t it pathetic that even with a majority they still can’t get much done?
Omnes Omnibus
@Trentrunner: I have been hammering the Medicaid issue (and its effect on rural WI) in my calls to Ron Johnson.
Nelle
Moran made that point at a town hall in June. He was genuinely upset about the process and said that this kind of politics was disgusting. He tried to equate it with the ACA and was immediately and loudly corrected.
trollhattan
I am putting half of these posts in my post savings account.
Yeah, “smarter” Republicans are genuinely scared of having this hung around their necks in ’18 or ’20. Good.
p.a.
We should celebrate that the PoS looking like it’s going down, absolutely.
BUT
Should we celebrate that it’s going down because some R’s think it’s not shitty enough? Next session: BCRA, now new and shittified even more! Seen the 2018 Senatorial map?
Save those phone numbers!
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Good. Chris Hayes let Charlie Dent get away with that last week and I wanted to throw my shoe at the tee-eve.
Baud
@p.a.: Nothing is passing in an election year.
cain
I am going to Wang Chung tonight!
And listen to Dream Theater, and DougJ’s favorite band, Rush.
Gin & Tonic
You have my undying gratitude for your correct use of the plural noun “data.”
Yes, I’m a pedant about it.
? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?
It just occurred to me, that superficially, with all of the internal divisions in the GOP, Congress resembles a parliamentary body without all of the procedures and norms that make paralimentary bodies work
rikyrah
Positive news??
O. Felix Culpa
Delighted and, frankly, relieved. 72% of all births in New Mexico are covered by Medicaid. The cuts would have been a disaster on that and so many other fronts. Lots more work to be done, but celebration is in order tonight.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
TS
Lindsay Graham – so keen to look like he cares – has discovered “Its time for a new approach”
By tomorrow there will be 90 votes against. Hypocrites – every GOP senator
NotMax
Rats. Sinking ship.
Cheryl Rofer
On Saturday, on the way back from Yellowstone, I drove through a bunch of little Colorado farm towns. Monte Vista, Alamosa, La Jara, Antonito. They looked better than they had in years. Each had a clinic or hospital and a senior center. Some had nursing homes. The potato farming seemed to be doing well, but I’ll bet Obamacare and Medicaid were a part of their improvement.
Baud
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
As in Samson and Delilah?
Omnes Omnibus
One of the times I made calls last week, I called Baldwin first. I did the “thank you and keep up the good work thing,” and went to call Johnson. I accidentally hit my saved Baldwin number rather than the Johnson number. When the Baldwin guy answered the phone, I said “Sorry, I just talked to you; I was try to call Johnson’s office to yell at him.” The staffer laughed and said “Don’t worry. I can transfer you.” And then he did.
Baud
@Omnes Omnibus: Heh.
NotMax
Post recess, the shadows of both the debt ceiling and budget bills ought be broad enough to eclipse (so called) health care.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Baud: that’s how I took it, pulling down the pillars
and hair, maybe
MJS
I know this is wishful thinking, but is really like to see this covered as what it is, i.e., the Republicans unable to come up with a replacement for the ACA after 7 years, putting out one disastrous bill after another, with the end result being a significant incresse in popular support for the ACA.
Face
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Im not smart, so can you tell me what “going Samson” means in this context?
Baud
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: So if we shaved Trump’s head, he’d lose his power over the deplorables?
Worth a try.
Nelle
One of Moran’s points that I haven’t heard others respond to is that health care issues must also address rising health care costs.
Baud
I wish Trump would go Jonah and get swallowed by a whale.
MJS
@Baud: Jonah?
ETA Nevermind
SiubhanDuinne
@Baud:
Will McConnell even schedule a vote now? Or will he find some chickenshit reason to delay and defer it indefinitely?
debbie
Glad to see those red Xs. Rob Portman won’t need to find a spine after all.
patrick II
Does anyone besides me think that same of these right wing no votes are being duplicitous? Particularly Rand Paul, who represents a state where in Kentucky Care is very popular, gets to have his cake and eat it too. He gets to keep a program popular with many Kentucky voters, while at the same time keeping his unsullied libertarian virginity intact.
sigaba
@Baud: Push down the temple with his own two little hands. Naturally I assume someone else came up with the biblical allusion, not Trump.
Omnes Omnibus
@Baud: @Face: Killing 1000 people with the jaw of an ass?
p.a.
Let’s hope whichever rat said his oppo is based on the fear any bill, ACA, BCRA, etc. will lead to single payer is right for once in his life.
Schlemazel
Not surprised to learn that the Senator from Kansas is a Moran, I figured all the GOP Senators are Morans
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Face: I have at best a nodding acquaintance with scripture, based on paintings and old MGM epics my grandma loved to watch when she stayed with us, but IIRC when Samson, the Old Testament Hercules who lost his strength when the temptress Delilah cut his hair, was captured by… somebody… and put on trial or display in their temple God gave him his strength back and he pulled down the pillars of their temple and the roof came down and did smite the bad guys. Lo and Verily.
Trump can still pull the funding on the exchanges and fuck everything up. I think it would backfire on him and the GOP, but not before a lot of people got hurt.
ETA: @Baud: somebody photoshopped a bald trump. He looked like Don Rickles’ fat-faced, mean-spirited bastard nephew
Mike J
@Face: Pulling down the temple on yourself to destroy your enemies.
SiubhanDuinne
@p.a.:
Oh yes. I have both Senators and my Rep (all GOP) on speed dial — district and D.C. offices. Not planning to delete them any time soon. If it’s not health care, it’ll be something else soon enough.
Baud
@Omnes Omnibus: Trump could use his own jaw!
Omnes Omnibus
@patrick II: Yes, but I don’t care.
??? Martin
@Cheryl Rofer: Pot money probably not hurting either.
Baud
@Mike J: Right. Like Trump would intentionally sacrifice himself for anything.
Brachiator
Trump is making noise that he wants something on his desk to sign, with respect to the healthcare bill. No more pretense about getting something better than Obamacare.
Trump supporters keep looking like a bunch of dopes.
SiubhanDuinne
@Omnes Omnibus:
Love it.
NotMax
So will Dolt 45 now
a) blame Obama
b) blame Hillary
c) announce he was against it all along
d) claim victory
e) tweet meaningless, meaning-free gibberish
f) all of the above
Cheryl Rofer
@??? Martin: Possibly. I saw one dispensary in Antonito, the closest to the New Mexico border.
Baud
@NotMax: All of the above in the same tweet.
p.a.
@patrick II: His constit’ents (h/t Oh! Brother Where Art Thou*) don’t even realize KentukCare is the ACA!
*yes I know it wasn’t set in Kentucky…
Schlemazel
@Baud:
You are all wrong, he should go Judas.
SiubhanDuinne
@Brachiator:
He was on with that evangelist the other day, can’t remember his name, and said something to the effect that he would be “very angry” if the Senate didn’t pass a healthcare bill.
Cannot WAIT for the next Twitter storm!!
ETA: Pat Robertson
??? Martin
Trump/Price will kill ACA from the inside. Congress won’t have any choice but come up with something. And, the GOP tax plan is also dead now. Mulvaney will help undermine ACA – they’ll hold citizens health hostage, because they’re too fucking opportunistic and amoral to recognize the scope of the public backlash.
Omnes Omnibus
@SiubhanDuinne: Wisconsin, at its best, can be rather wonderful. Too bad we don’t always live up to our better angels.
??? Martin
@Cheryl Rofer: They don’t need the dispensaries, they need the farms.
Punchy
@Schlemazel: An article in the KC Star today about how the 2 KS Senators dont like each other. At all. So this could just be all about Moran making the BCRA-loving Roberts look foolish.
Frankensteinbeck
Please let this be dead. We will see what McConnell does.
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Nobody in congress gives the slightest fuck what Trump wants.
@Face:
Symbolically, collapsing the building on top of everyone. In current practical terms, I believe he has the power to withhold some payments built into Obamacare, which will generally make things shitty for the exchanges. Still nothing a thousand miles from the damage gutting Medicaid would do.
NotMax
@Omnes Omnibus
The Dells are nice.
patrick II
@p.a.:
They would know once they didn’t have it anymore. Keeping them ignorant is part of the con.
Schlemazel
@Punchy:
I was thinking more of the “GET A BRAIN MORANS” sign at a pro-war protest under Boy Blunder
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Punchy: Funny, I remember an article a long time ago about same-state, same-party Senate partners who hate each other: Snowe and Collins by most accounts just didn’t like each other. Trent Lott and I think Roger Wicker hated each other’s guts. There was at least one more example, another R pair, IIRC.
TS
@SiubhanDuinne:
McCain will need longer to recover so vote will wait until after the recess.
MomSense
@Omnes Omnibus:
Thank you for making calls.
Frankensteinbeck
@Brachiator:
I reiterate: Congress does not give a flying fuck what Trump wants. The last time he held a whip meeting, he lost votes because he offended them with his bullying. They may not want to impeach him, but that doesn’t mean they have to listen to him, either.
Mike J
@Schlemazel: Sisera.
Ohio Mom
My Senator Portman, always hedging his bets. If/when the ACA survives, I will forever be challenged by the Republicans I know that “He’s a good guy, he voted to keep the ACA.”
p.a.
How much pull do those (far too numerous) Rethug governors have at the national level? Are there many Dense Pence types, or Kasich “I can live with ACA” types?
Omnes Omnibus
@SiubhanDuinne:
When I was clerking in federal court, I heard the phrase “co-equal branch” tossed around a lot.
Omnes Omnibus
@NotMax: The literal Dells, right? Not the proto-Branson that grew up around them.
Cheryl Rofer
@??? Martin: That I did not see – just potatoes blooming, which means they have nice little new potatoes below ground. Very tempting, but I resisted.
Omnes Omnibus
@MomSense: Backatcha.
Cheryl Rofer
Trump is tweeting:
Republicans should just REPEAL failing ObamaCare now & work on a new Healthcare Plan that will start from a clean slate. Dems will join in!
Brachiator
@Frankensteinbeck:
True enough. But he is still useful to them. But Trump’s supporters need to be challenged. They love a guy who, as you might say, don’t give a flying fuck what they want.
ETA. Whoa. See that Trump is sending a stupid Twitter message about repeal now, replace later.
debbie
@NotMax:
F wins!
https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/887134287350439936
hedgehog mobile
Halle-fucking-lujah. Gonna open the prosecco for this one. Thanks to all the callers, faxers and protestors. Back to work tomorrow!
Another Scott
@Omnes Omnibus: Yup.
ASlavitt:
This is great interim victory.
But we have to fight them every day until they are voted out of office. They won’t give up – we can’t give up either.
Cheers,
Scott.
Cheryl Rofer
Schlemazel
@Mike J:
But would would wield the tent peg? Better hair furor do it himself. It would be symbolic if it were cyanide and a bullet but there are people who would say I am equating that thing to the original so I’d be happy if he just used a rope and a tree in the rose garden
p.a.
@Cheryl Rofer:
Oh dear… he’s so far gone he thinks Lieberman is still in the Senate…
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@p.a.: For reasons I can’t quite remember, Heller is scared shitless of Sandoval, and I think what finally got Susan Collins to not cave on something is her desire to be governor of Maine, and she doesn’t want to create a budget mess she’ll inherit
I suspect Kasich is itching to make a primary run at trump, maybe even an indy run. I don’t know how that might affect Portman, or Brown.
NotMax
@Omnes Omnibus
Yup. Was still pastoral last time I passed through, 40-odd years ago (some of them quite odd indeed).
@p.a.
Certainly the governor of Nevada has been upfront and vocal about recognizing the damage that legislatively throwing acid in the face of Medicaid will do.
cain
@NotMax:
He will simply say that he passed Healthcare legislation and the rubes will believe him.
Another Scott
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Donnie:
Gee! Why didn’t anyone try that before in the eleventy-seven times they voted to repeal it before??! Of course Democrats will “join in”!
Please proceed, Donnie…
Cheers,
Scott.
Steeplejack
@SiubhanDuinne:
Progress report:
I found this at what I would call a “casual” source—a random individual writing on a website back in 2001—so I offer it mostly as an aide-mémoire. The added verses don’t seem to scan very well.
SiubhanDuinne
@Steeplejack:
Thank you for looking. I must say, they don’t seem at all familiar to me. I can’t recall any lyrics past the first verse, but I’m certain I would recognize them if I saw them. Agree with you about the clumsy scansion.
Raven Onthill
Quck, stick a stake through its heart! Make sure it stays dead!
Mike J
@Schlemazel: Mainly I like the fact that Barak’s army defeated him.
And the fact that the bible includes pegging.
Karen
@Omnes Omnibus: have a brother that lives in Dells, the small businesses that once were part of community are almost all gone. walmart moved in
Omnes Omnibus
@Karen: OTOH, he is near Devil’s Lake.
ETA: He is also near the creepy clowns in Baraboo.
misterpuff
Jeez Reading Cole’s Twitter Feed – Now all the apologists have switched to “Where’s Schumer’s plan?” ” How is Schumer going to Fix and Repeal?” repeal? Bullshit Fix and Strengthen, This is what happens you play for big stakes and LOSE! They are as incompetent as the Drumpfters. They won’t budge on their “Platform” (cowed by their base) but they will follow Trumpy into the arms of Putin (still cowed by a small but votatile part of their base).
p.a.
D’ya think if Congress just allotted say $10M or so for a gilded monument to him tRump might just go home? The whole crew is dangerous and incompetent but my thinking is if he just up and quit it might break his (totally not fascist I never said that) followers’ wills for a cycle or three where an impeachment or actual prosecution would galvanize them further.
Karen
@Omnes Omnibus: sadly, thanks to Walker small rural communities are returning to gravel roads; when I left 3 years ago the side road near house was is such bad shape that they were no longer going to fix but had sent out grinders to grind up the black top and then spread gravel in low spots
? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?
@Cheryl Rofer:
Hahahahahaahah!
Yolo, bro! Just repeal it and work on something afterwards. That totally wouldn’t throw the country into chaos. And I’m sure those goody-goody Demoguerats would join in too!
MomSense
@Omnes Omnibus:
Tonight we celebrate, rest, and get ready for the next fight.
get up offa that thing
NotMax
Much scrambling shall now ensue on the Hill to find another bill within which to hide a massive tax cut gift to the 1%.
JoeyJoeJoe Junior Shabadoo
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
They weren’t there at the same time but Frank Lautenberg and Bob Torricelli hated each other; also, John Glenn and Howard Metzenbaum were enemies for a while.
Omnes Omnibus
@Karen: Where have you seen this? Not arguing, just wondering.
ArchTeryx
You know, I’m ancient enough to remember myself in high school, dodging Velociraptors on the way to the bus stop (pesky little buggers) and when a whole lot of good things to come out of Nancy Pelosi’s House got killed in the Senate by Lieberasshole and his band of merry Blue Dogs.
Now the shoe’s on McConnell’s foot. Wear it proudly, turtle! You built it!
Jim, Foolish Literalist
two weeks ago, Rick Wilson was tweeting that Washington is littered with the bodies of people who underestimated Mitch McConnell (not that he’s necessarily wrong about that)
ETA: @JoeyJoeJoe Junior Shabadoo: that was it! Lautenberg and Torricelli!
ArchTeryx
@Karen: I’d say the rurals got what they voted for in Wisconsin. Wonder what the suburbanites that form Walker’s base think of their new moonscapes where once lay good roads?
NotMax
A little upbeat celebratory ditty, Gimme Dat Ding.
Original Lee
McCain’s little “passed with NO Republican votes” thing tickles me because the Republicans could pass the Trumpcare bill with NO Democratic votes and they haven’t managed to do that. (Slava Bogu.)
Omnes Omnibus
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: McConnell does no very well. This is the first time he has need to work for yes. So far, he doesn’t seem to be good at it.
MomSense
This looks interesting.
New front opens l’affaire Russe
Omnes Omnibus
@MomSense: JEBUS!
O. Felix Culpa
@Omnes Omnibus: I visited the Crane Reserve in Baraboo, but passed on the creepy clowns.
Read your story (from last night) this morning about the “new” Saab, so too late to respond. I’m sorry about the demise of your previous car and hope this one – six gears and all – turns out well for you. Ingrid is a great name. She was luminous in Casablanca, one of my all-time favorite films.
Barbara
@NotMax: Maybe Sandoval threatened to switch parties and run against Heller next year — or not switch but challenge him in the primary.
ETA: Heller can’t win without Sandoval’s support, so Sandoval would not have to level even that kind of threat to have an impact.
Omnes Omnibus
@ArchTeryx: I’d also say that a shitload of WI citizens had their votes suppressed.
Brachiator
@NotMax:
A number of items were settled or deferred in the 2015 tax bill. If Congress ends up doing nothing, tax rates on the rich would be retained, but major Trump mischief would be avoided for now.
Shorter. The Republicans can’t claim that essential government functions will be affected if the Democrats find a way to block stupid tax reform.
Major Major Major Major
Everything Donald Trump touches turns to shit, including Yertle’s skills as a parliamentarian.
Omnes Omnibus
@O. Felix Culpa: Thanks. I am stupidly excited about tomorrow and getting the keys. My inner six-year old lives.
jl
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: I think the epic and pathetic and wondrous and increasingly ferocious bonfire the GOP set for their own political capital is independent of whether their Wealth-Care bill passes. The very nature of the dishonest attempt is eating away at their political capital.
They’ve been building the bonfire for seven years by lying about PPACA and their ability to do better. Their BS in trying to pass it was just the lit match. There is still a good chance that they pass some GOP partisan wrecking ball that kills thousands of people and hurts the economy.
If they do fail with their tax cut pretending to be a health care bill, I;m not sure whether they can do anything to make needed fixes to Obama care. Trump will try to torch it out of spite. And the process of failing on repeal/replace will have divided the Senate so much, not sure the GOP will be able to unity behind a bipartisan bill, unless McConnell is willing to pass something that is a center Democratic bill with some moderate GOP support.
But, we have to keep contacting our Congress people. This monster will have to be vaporized by grass roots political nukes before McConnell will give up on Ryans kegger memories and civicidal dreams.
Summer
@Cheryl Rofer: Weed.
O. Felix Culpa
@Omnes Omnibus: Our six-year-old selves deserve a little happiness now and then. Enjoy!
Percysowner
McConnell just said he’s going to push to vote to totally repeal Obamacare with a 2 year delay.
Major Major Major Major
@Summer: Maybe she meant ‘pot’ when she typed ‘potato’.
StringOnAStick
@Cheryl Rofer: No, when Colorado citizens voted for legal weed it included a requirement that the taxes go for schools mainly and the general fund, so if the local facilities look better I suspect it has more to do with the ACA and Medicaid expansion.
different-church-lady
I’m so old I can remember when Obama was an idiot for trying to build a law that could last instead of just smashing something “better” into place.
jl
@NotMax:
” Much scrambling shall now ensue on the Hill to find another bill within which to hide a massive tax cut gift to the 1%. ”
But, they need to take a lot of money out of health care for their ultra-rich mega sugar daddies to get the tax cuts that they want. So, that is the problem, and I think a good chance McConnell will try again, even if its chances continue to go downhill. We need to remember that Ryan passed something after the first try failed. McConnell can go for a third try in the Senate.
Edit: except time will start to get short soon. They have to figure out budget resolution debt ceiling thing coming up end of summer.
Steeplejack
@Omnes Omnibus:
Just remember not to take it too seriously.
Brachiator
@Percysowner:
Wow, way to maximize uncertainty and damage the Exchanges.
This farce just keeps getting more ridiculous.
Hkedi [Kang T. Q.]
@Percysowner: Well THATS a non-starter, unless he wants to completely nuke the filibuster. (which is possible)
Jim, Foolish Literalist
someone on MSNBC just reminded me of the Bud Light party in the Rose Garden to celebrate the passing of Trumpcare in the House.
Ha.
Kay
Yay!
I see Portman (the jerk) is still too scared to commit to anything. Sometimes I feel like he doesn’t listen to me :)
Punchy
@Percysowner: Doesn’t a bill like that need a filly-proof majority? Do they think they’ll get 8 Dems to agree to this? Or will they nuke the legislative filly?
I’ll take this as M-Squared being able to say “We tried!” after its obvious failure and then go on to fucking up other parts of gov’t.
Omnes Omnibus
@Steeplejack: Will try. Can’t guaranty success.
ETA: Waiting/hoping for Chet M to show up so that I can apologize for misinterpreting a comment last night.
Cheryl Rofer
@StringOnAStick: Yes, it was the healthcare facilities that I particularly noticed. A couple of decades back, there were one or two hospitals in that area. Then they closed down and there was nothing. Now a clinic in every little town, and nursing homes that I don’t recall any of from before. So that’s more ACA and Medicaid than pot. Or potatoes.
Steeplejack
@Omnes Omnibus:
Congrats on the new ride in any case.
janelle
So… is there any chance McConnell will actually be able to get straight repeal passed? And can he do it with just 51 votes?
? Martin
@Percysowner: Sure. That’s the vote with us our your family gets it strategy. Of course, the GOP is playing an extremely weak hand here, yet they don’t seem to realize it. There’s no question the GOP will take the blame for this, as the repeal vote will be perfectly partisan. And why should Dems compromise with them? It’s not like they’re facing the threat of the GOP going off and passing their own bill – we just watched them fail spectacularly at that. Seems like with every passing day the Dems become more valuable to the GOP, not less. So the Dems have no reason to ask for anything less liberal than ACA was – and they won’t. Pelosi and Schumer are more than happy to stare them down.
This is lunacy. I don’t know how these Republicans don’t get pantsed regularly by their grandkids.
? Martin
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Fucking close to beer to celebrate fucking close to winning.
FlipYrWhig
@janelle: I can’t imagine that would work after all these complaints about process: McCain, Graham, Moran, and Ron Johnson all carped about that. You can’t placate concerns about process by more closed-door parliamentary trickery. IMHO McConnell is doing this to show the House that _their_ approach isn’t a winner either.
jl
@Hkedi [Kang T. Q.]: Vast majority of the GOP Congress, and particularly McConnell, don’t care about policy at all. Price, one of their goons who went to the administration just out and said on national TV, in last few days, that he would advice the insurance industry to dust off their playbooks from the bad old pre-PPACA days and use that. Remember headlines about sick and dying people who couldn’t get a policy, or were cut off by their insurance company by one shady means or another. Even the health insurance industry doesn’t want to go back. Of course, they realized they were in an industry death spiral in the individual market, since they were spending more rapidly increasing amounts covering fewer and fewer people. They spent boatloads of money trying to avoid covering anyone who could expect to need any care at all, and to cut off policy holders from collecting claims, or renewing insurance.
A repeal with 2 year delay is a hail mary pass. As Trump brings down the system, the Congressional GOP can hector about the Democrats not helping them, and hope to hunker down and limit the damage in 2018 and 2020. Not a road to take unless it is absolutely necessary, I think. Both for them and for the rest of us.
I hope McConnell calls it quits before he tries that.
Major Major Major Major
@janelle:
Dems couldn’t pass it with reconciliation, Repubs can’t repeal it with reconciliation either. Not without changing the rules pretty significantly, anyway.
Edited for clarity.
jl
@janelle: I think by ‘repeal’ they just mean defund the financing mechanisms that needed for the PPACA it work, effective two years after signing into law. The point is to wreck it, or promise to, by any means necessary. If can’t do it now, set a legislative time bomb and start it ticking.
Fair Economist
@patrick II:
Oh, very much so, and for the same reasons as you.
TS
@FlipYrWhig:
I have no idea whether it can work or not, but I sure wouldn’t count on McCain and Graham. Probably regretting what they said already.
NotMax
@janelle
Better chance of pushing through a bill ‘making’ Mexico pay for all health care.
GxB
@Baud: I can’t be the only one who thought of the ancient luggage commercial – wasn’t the ape named “Sampson” thus “Sampsonite.”
A captive gorilla in a cage having a shit-fit works pretty well in this analogy. Two scoops is more a orangutan thought.
jl
@Fair Economist: I’ve heard Paul spouting so much incoherent pure distilled BS about health care, either he is non too bright and has no clue about economics at all, and is therefore extremely confused. Or he is cynically spouting baggelgab to keep the rubes in his thrall.
Omnes Omnibus
@GxB: Read further into the comments.
TriassicSands
@Frankensteinbeck:
They might be more likely to impeach him, if they had to listen to him or if he had any real credibility. The credibility issue is more problematic since Trump’s numbers with the base are so good, but the Republicans have seen time and again that Trump’s threats are empty. He’s a paper tiger with a big mouth.
Another Scott
@SiubhanDuinne: This has probably already been said 5 times, but, …
Usually if a bill that the Senate Majority leader wants is going down to defeat, s/he will change her/his vote to “No” so that s/he can bring it up again later. Since voting hasn’t started yet, I assume that McConnell won’t bother with the hope that they can come up with some other magical Reconciliation way before the clock runs out. Or maybe they’ll simply try again next year.
Baud (IIRC?) is right above that usually nothing happens in an election year, but I think they know this may be their last chance so I expect them to keep trying as long as they have the majority. If not an outright repeal, then via directing Sec. Price to do things that will break the system in the name of “reform”.
Eyes on the prize. It’s not over – not by a long shot.
Cheers,
Scott.
? Martin
@FlipYrWhig: They only complain about process when they want an excuse that will play well at home for going against the party. None of them fucking care about process. They went this far into it with this process and never broadcast their no along the way.
Mitch can’t repeal with less than 60. Watch for Trump/Price to publicly sabotage ACA to force the Senate’s hand. Somehow they will think this is a smart move – at least Trump will. He has no moral compass and no ideology. He just has this compulsion to win, in whatever manner makes sense in his head.
catclub
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Roger Wicker was appointed to replace Trent Lott when Lott quit to become a lobbyist.
Lott vs Cochran? Cochran vs Wicker?
Theodore Bilbo versus Natty Bumpo?
NotMax
@GxB
No p.
Samsonite
Omnes Omnibus
@? Martin: Who is Price?
jl
@catclub: Mr Toad versus Gollum would be a fun race. I’d probably go for Toad, since he showed signs of reform at the end of the book.
Hkedi [Kang T. Q.]
@jl: Yes, but a full (even delayed) repeal would change laws that couldn’t be passed under reconciliation. The Democratic caucus will filibuster, and I don’t see any way that they could flip the 8 D senators needed to stop the filibuster. Plus the political commercials write themselves and the pain will start to bite fully 4 years out, R senators are putting that in their calculation.
Finally, although they could just completely nuke the filibuster, that’s going to be a really hard lift for the R senators (John McCain probably being the lead NO on that particular bit). They might pull the trigger, and personally I do think the legislative filibuster should be reduced or destroyed, but that’s the only way they will be able to pass a repeal through the senate.
Fair Economist
@jl: This Republican healthcare bill is so bad even somebody as clueless as Rand Paul can realize it’s garbage. On this, I think he’s spewing bafflegab. Notably, he’s normally a famous folder and for once he’s holding his ground (first time? I can’t remember another).
Cheryl Rofer
janelle
@jl: Can he realistically get 50 votes to do that?
CaseyL
“Repeal and NO Replacement” will gladden the hearts of the two Nay votes for whom TrumpCare wasn’t cruel enough. It might horrify any moderates who aren’t already horrified, but I think all two of them are already Nays.
“Repeal and No Replacement” might also get around the CBO scoring: would they need to score something that simply does away with the ACA? Obviously, everyone currently covered by either the ACA or Medicaid would simply lose coverage, period; don’t need an analysis to figure that one out.
I continue to find it difficult to comprehend the depths of cruelty and evil at work here. The GOP has Othered, un-personed, and shat upon everyone who isn’t a billionaire.
justawriter
My big worry is three of the four no votes actually want to make the bill worse. I’m not sure the moderates, or what passes as a moderate rethuglican, has the stones to stop anything short of death squads for sick people.
GregB
@GxB:
I knew one of the actors that played the gorilla.
Don’t want to brag.
jl
@Hkedi [Kang T. Q.]: I was thinking MConnell would just defund it and call it a repeal. But then, thinking about that,, if budgetary only, how could he delay ‘implementation’? Budgets go on budgetary schedules. I don’t know enough about all the rules Congress has to follow to know.
Maybe commenters who are saying it is just BS cover are correct.
Percysowner
@Hkedi [Kang T. Q.]: He could be willing to nuke the filibuster. I don’t think he will nuke it, simply because he runs the risk of nuking it and STILL not being able to pass a bill. Right now, he can blame the Democrats if he can’t push something through. No filibuster and the cracks in his party become even more evident. He MIGHT be able to get it through, but I don’t think it’s a given, even if he doesn’t need Democratic votes.
Brachiator
@? Martin:
This is how the Republicans outsmarted themselves in backing Trump. Trump doesn’t care about Ideology or politics. He just wants to be able to stand in the spotlight and bask in the adulation of his supporters. And so, despite his posturing, he is indifferent to the contents of any healthcare bill. He just wants to be able to say that he beat Obama.
? Martin
@Omnes Omnibus: Secretary of Health and Human Services. His job is to implement the ACA.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@patrick II: @Fair Economist: me too, Rand Paul is just the most visible of a lot Senators who don’t want to vote on this flaming turd
jl
@janelle: After thinking about it some more, and reading other commenters’ info and thoughts on how it might work, I’m not sure McConnell’s new trial balloon makes any sense.
Omnes Omnibus
@Percysowner: He doesn’t have 50. Blowing up the filibuster would be stupid.
Omnes Omnibus
@Percysowner: Calm down.
NotMax
@justawriter
Job creation!
@Omnes Omnibus
HHS Secretary.
Hkedi [Kang T. Q.]
@Percysowner: I was thinking earlier that even the great late George Romero would have looked askance at how many times this bill has risen from the grave. I just see this current repeal in 2 years attempt as significantly less likely as anything else to go anywhere.
But it will be back, in an even crueler and stupider form.
randy khan
My gut tells me that they can’t repeal under reconciliation, but Senate rules are so convoluted that one’s gut never is a reliable guide.
That said, the optics of repealing Obamacare and voting to kill the Medicaid expansion entirely in two years are not great, to say the least. It easily could move Portman & co. into the no camp.
? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?
@Brachiator:
He’ll never be able to say that and be taken seriously by those who actually matter
Mike in NC
Fat Bastard isn’t having a good night. Again.
FlipYrWhig
@justawriter: @? Martin: IMHO the real story here is that A LOT of Republicans, at least in the Senate, know that it’s a terrible law that kills people and ravages state budgets, and they don’t want to walk the plank just to give Donald Fucking Trump a win. They’re losing interest in propping up Donald Trump. He doesn’t give a shit about them, they don’t give a shit about him.
janelle
Actually, it looks like what McConnell is talking about doing could pass with just 50 votes – he’s talking about reviving a bill from 2015 that passed both houses (and only needed 50 votes in the Senate) and was vetoed by Obama. Essentially, it only impacts the budget-relevant framework of ACA – the subsidies, taxes, and Medicaid expansion. Everything else would stay intact, but with no funding available to pay for it, it would actually be worse than just a straight repeal because even more people would be priced out with the patient protection measures still in place.
Jean
@Cheryl Rofer: It was Not “written on a straight party line basis.” So sick of that b.s. How many Republican amendments were included? How many public hearings were there?
? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?
@FlipYrWhig:
I wonder if their decreasing support for Trump could ever come out really obviously publicly so that T voters get pissed off and either primary them or just not vote in upcoming elections
Omnes Omnibus
@NotMax: My bad. I am an FP guy…..
,
jl
@NotMax: Price is a depraved liar, and also a fool.
His quote about the insurance industry going back to ‘the old playbook’ was a foolish thing to say, since it will harden insurance industry opposition to GOP BS. Any execs in that industry who don’t want to manage a dying industry shrinking in death spiral were hoping a decade and more ago that there would be some reform that saved them.
And to the general public, it will mean a return to the bad old days of crummy health insurance and HMO tricks.
And Price should be smart enough to know those two statements are completely contradictory.
Hope there is a rush ad campaign with Price’s quote about the ‘old playbook’ all over the country in the next week.
mai naem mobile
I think the Medicaid expansion GOP governators are a significant reason why Trumpcare is in trouble. They all see themselves as a future POTUS and don’t want to deal with this on the campaign trail. Too many consequences to deal with ,least of all their state budgets.
NotMax
@Omnes Omnibus
Bad linky. Fix.
efgoldman
@janelle:
I have no idea if that’s possible, politically, to get the votes. Looks to me as if he and the “leadership” would like to get it passed, if at all, without their obvious fingerprints in blood all over it. I certainly don’t know the One Sure Trick to Pass Bills Without a Recorded Vote, but if there’s a way, Yertle will search for it.
GxB
@NotMax: Alright, fair enough. I couldn’t have been more that five or so, and in the days of Google looking it up, wooda risked killing the joke. We’re post truth here people – my gag shall not be denied.
Ah, I think I just remembered who “Sampson” was – damnit! – NO P – I’ve got Trumps obsession with sticking P were it shouldn’t be. – I did actually see Samson in person around that time though.
Another Scott
@janelle: ASlavitt’s Twitter has Brian Beutler:
It’s hard to see the Senators who thought that 23M being without health insurance [would be a bridge too far] would be willing to accept 32M…
It’s not over. We have to keep fighting until sensible people have the majority again…
Cheers,
Scott.
jl
@janelle: But how does McConnell delay ‘implementation’ for two years on that bill? Since when does Congress have a procedure to impose that kind of funding decision that far into the future? That would into a new Congress, right? I’m fuzzy on the details, so if anyone know, please help me out.
McConnell knows immediate defunding won’t get 50 votes. Will cause too many problems for the midterms.
Cheryl Rofer
@Jean: Totally agree. But McCain is speaking to Republicans and saying they must observe regular order. Not that McConnell will listen.
But there’s a little bit of hope in that some Rs are breaking from the herd.
SiubhanDuinne
@Another Scott:
I do know that, but always forget. Thanks.
CZanne
@Cheryl Rofer: it’s absolutely down to ACA. The Colorado Independent has been running a long series on how rural hospitals have been running in the black for the first time in years and without ACA, they’d be in worse shape than before. The general economy is doing better, but the money gets out there slow. There’s not a lot of state support available thanks to the benighted fuckery called TABOR, but getting paid is getting paid.
NotMax
@GxB
Also too, from the cobwebbed recesses of cartoons past, the Samson who rode a chopper.
:)
FlipYrWhig
@Another Scott: IMHO the objective of bringing repeal-only to the floor is that it lets the diehards say, “Hey, Republican base, don’t blame me, when I had a chance I voted to tear up the whole damn thing!” The House got a fair amount of mileage out of that for years. But wouldn’t it also expose the faultlines in the caucus? I can’t think McConnell really wants to do this. Maybe it’s to throw a bone to Trump, or to say, “see, we tried it your way and _that_ didn’t work either!”?
FlipYrWhig
@Cheryl Rofer: So maybe in answer to my last the goal of bringing repeal-only to the floor is to leave the process objectors (Graham, McCain, Moran?) on the hook for defeat, because they can withstand the firestorm from the base and/or the President?
Frankensteinbeck
@FlipYrWhig:
There is no way I would be dumb enough to count on this, but if I found out in the future this was all a plan to NOT pass Obamacare repeal, it wouldn’t surprise me. McConnell has been weird since the GOP won this election. His actions haven’t matched any prediction.
jl
@FlipYrWhig: They knew the 2015 bill was a PR stunt, so no reason for it to make any damn sense at all. They know Trump will sign a piece of official paper that just has ‘Trump’s Beautiful and Terrific, Top, Health Care Law’ written on it.
NotMax
@FlipYrWhig
Surmising that McConnell’s budget for voodoo dolls of Paul and select others may now well exceed Boehner’s booze bill.
GxB
@GregB: Wait a minute! That was an actor!?… My entire childhood is crumbling into lies… (Seriously, I thought they put it in a cage with a real ape.)
Alright, I’ve run that into the ground.
To topic, again my local fishwrap weighs in from the hiterlands of the Badger state, polls receive light response, but among those who can be bothered to answer, O-care is loathed – I’d estimate about 33-40% tops in support across the past few polls. The vast majority are either willfully ignorant or more likely just parroting their “betters” (bosses) opinion. Seriously, there is a huge contingent that I think fears for their finances should they speak out against the prevailing wishes of the better off around here. Goddamn Wississippi indeed.
Cheryl Rofer
This is an amazing thread, from a former aide to Harry Reid. He thinks McConnell is in big trouble. Read the whole thing.
Cheryl Rofer
@FlipYrWhig: As others are saying, I can’t figure out in normal political terms why McConnell is doing any of this. But I have tweeted a couple of times, again tonight, the theory that McConnell is driven by an unreasoning hatred for Obama. Remember, he vowed that he would make Obama a one-term president, and he failed at that. So the next best thing is to destroy Obamacare.
There’s that novel about the unreasoning pursuit of a white whale.
And I am being afflicted by small claws and teeth in my ankles, reminding me that it is time for late-night snacks. So goodnight!
ArchTeryx
@Omnes Omnibus: That isn’t mutually exclusive. Of course a shitload of votes got suppressed in WI. That’s their ROE everywhere where they have the trifecta, to make sure they functionally stay in some kind of power forever within the state.
jl
One thing in favor of going ‘repeal only’ is that McConnell won’t have to wait for a CBO score. Here is Sen Murphy’s tweet.
I guess he is referring to the CBO study of the 2015 bill.
32 million lose insurance, premiums double.
No wonder McConnell wants to find a trick to pass it and implement it after the midterms. (But right before 2020?)
Chris Murphy
@ChrisMurphyCT
CBO scored repeal without a replacement – it’s a humanitarian disaster of incomprehensible scale. 32M lose insurance. Premiums go up 100%.
https://twitter.com/ChrisMurphyCT/status/887149384625999874
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Cheryl Rofer: it’s interesting to me because I’ve been wondering if the different nature of Senators vs House members, IOW egos, would play in all this. If what Jentleson says is true, McConnell treats his colleagues like subalterns, I can’t imagine that plays well. I’d imagine John McCain’s ego is something that needs constant care and feeding by his Leader, whom McCain is said to hate. My mind is wandering around the Caucus, and it’s surprising to me how many old bulls– Cardinals, I think they call them– are left in the GOP Caucus. McCain, Graham, Grassley, Collins could have a lot of power I think if she had the brains to play her hand… Hatch has surprised me by his deference to trump, Corker I think can’t decide which team to play on, Alexander would probably qualify, but as someone pointed out today on twitter, he’s keeping his head down these days.
sm*t cl*de
Trump is caught up in the logic of terrorism… without realising it, he is telling his audience that Democratic legislators care more about them, and about health outcomes, than about party discipline.
Good of him to come out as a proponent for the Ds/
danielx
What is this ‘bipartisan process’ of which Grandpa McCain speaks?
different-church-lady
@NotMax:
Better chance of Mexico agreeing to that than agreeing to pay for the border wall.
Aleta
Also Yay. (From WSJ, no free link, so I put it all here.)
TriassicSands
@Fair Economist:
Rand Paul doesn’t think the bill to too bad; it’s not bad enough. If he had his way there would be no Medicare, no Medicaid, no Social Security, no SNAP, virtually no government. The country would be run by predators preying on the weak — a lot more than it is now.
patrick II
A thing to note, both Utah and Kansas have expanded medicaid, and when faced with those voters their senators backed down. John Roberts plan to keep republican state voters ignorant by allowing what would be only republican states turning down free to very low cost medicaid almost worked, but didn’t quite.
TriassicSands
@Cheryl Rofer:
By erasing all or most of Obama’s accomplishments, McConnell effectively makes Obama a zero term president. What could be better than that?
NotMax
@TriassicSands
’nuff said.
Citizen Alan
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Wicker succeeded Lott but that doesn’t mean that they didn’t and don’t hate each other. I wouldn’t be surprised to find out that the Wicker and Cochran people hate each other, but honestly I’m convinced Cochran is so far into the early stages of dementia that he probably doesn’t even think about Wicker.
danielx
@TriassicSands:
Rand Paul lives in Ayn Rand World, in which the magic of free markets solves every problem.
FlipYrWhig
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Yeah, I don’t get Hatch at all either. I thought he was supposed to be one of those people who still remembers bipartisan something something in the greatest deliberative body in the something something. The way that Feingold would sometimes be annoying about process issues — that was the kind of thing I expected Hatch would join people like Graham in doing. I forgot about Alexander and Corker. I feel like we hear less about them than we once did. Grassley, OTOH, is just a dick, as was revealed in the Obamacare debate. Same is true of Enzi.
Redshift
@Cheryl Rofer:
To me, it seems like McConnell wants to slash taxes for the rich, and the wingnut caucus wants to keep their “promise” to repeal Obamacare (and trust that their base will forget their promises to fix all the problems “caused” by Obamacare), so he’s willing to try to achieve his goal on the back of their crusade. I think he would have preferred if it died in the House, but thought he had a shot at shoving it through before people caught on.
Yeah, he wanted to prevent Obama from having any accomplishments, but I’m not convinced that it was personal (though I’m not certain it wasn’t either.) Arguably he wanted to obstruct any Democratic accomplishments for the reason smart Republicans wanted to block Clinton Care – because Democratic successes tend to be popular over time, making it hard to destroy them and give the money to rich people.
Redshift
@danielx:
And if reality doesn’t conform to his theory, reality is wrong.
Frankensteinbeck
@Redshift:
It was personal. McConnell may not talk to reporters about the size of Mexicans’ calves, but before anyone else, when Obama was elected McConnell declared scorched earth total war. He’s from Kentucky, and he’s as racist as the rest of the state I grew up in, and Obama being president infuriated him.
??? Martin
@Cheryl Rofer: If you recognize that white Christians became a minority under Obamas tenure, and with he being a symbol of the loss of white Christian power (who was the last non-white Christian to be pres, VP, Speaker, or Maj Leader?
White Christians have never been out of political power in this country in 4 centuries. Dems and GOP may argue around the edges of policy but never approach the dense core of race and religion. nobody knows what that will look like when it arrives but it scares the everloving fuck out of a decent sized population that have never experienced minority status. The know what they’ve pillaged from other minority groups and they fear the worst.
Maintaining majority power is all they care about now. The white supremacists and the dominionists are aligned in goals. They know they’re going to start losing in 2018. Trump was their lifeline to pack the courts with hard right conservatives who will hold the line while they regroup. They’re going to tear down whatever entitlement programs the can knowing how hard they are to replace.
This is why the anti-liberal hatred. It’s not our policies, it’s that we’ve aligned against white Christian culture. We see civil rights, they see race war.