The Senate is going through the mandated 20 hours of debate and vote-a-rama. What should we expect?
This revised iteration of BCRA — which included an amendment by Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) to allow non-Obamacare plans back on the market paired with $100 billion in funding to partially offset the Medicaid cuts — was subject, because of the Senate budget rules, to a 60-vote threshold for a procedural vote. It failed handily, 43 to 57, with nine Republicans and all of the Democrats opposing it.
Next up: a vote on clean repeal of Obamacare’s spending and health insurance coverage expansion with no replacement, which is scheduled for midday Wednesday. That bill is also expected to fail.
Neither result would be a surprise. Health care lobbyists and Senate aides believe the most likely destination is a skinny Obamacare repeal bill that undoes the individual mandate, the employer mandate and a few of the law’s taxes.
Vote-a-rama is a series of amendments that have to be germane to the bill. There will be 2 minutes of debate and roughly 10 minutes of voting on each amendment. Those can go on for a long time. Some Democratic Senators have already indicated that they have 100 or more amendments ready to file. Very few, if any, of these amendments are expected to pass but they are designed to highlight the differences between the parties and put Republicans in awkward positions.
And then after that, the Senate votes. Assuming there are 50 plus the Vice President, either the House accepts the Senate bill as is or they go to conference. And at that point, health policy wonks will figure out exactly what just passed as the Senate won’t know what they did.
MomSense
I’m feeling strangely calm about this. Maybe I’m just in shock. Going to get as healthy as possible, do all the medical things while I can, and devote myself to defeating every disgusting Republican running for office.
rikyrah
Thanks for the update, Mayhew.
My rage has not dimmed.
Not.one.bit.
Major Major Major Major
I thought that all amendments were considered germane to reconciliation bills.
rikyrah
For all the pissing & moaning Republicans have done over ACA, they’ve gone almost a decade without proposing a single plan to IMPROVE care.
— John Dingell (@JohnDingell) July 26, 2017
Do not forget this. Every proposal they plan to vote on will hurt MILLIONS of Americans.
They no longer care about policy. Only politics.
— John Dingell (@JohnDingell) July 26, 2017
NotMax
Permitting non-compliant, inferior, insurance in name only plans is like telling Ford that so long as some of their vehicles meet minimum safety standards that it’s okey-dokey to start up the Pinto production line.
Bill
Is it a foregone conclusion that some bill will pass the Senate? I was under the impression that this thing still had a good chance to die.
rikyrah
just worth noting again that not a single democrat is voting for this crap health care bill. not even the dems w terrible voting records.
— Oliver Willis (@owillis) July 25, 2017
“dont vote to kill vulnerable people” is a very low bar for public servants, but all the democrats are meeting it and most republicans arent
— Oliver Willis (@owillis) July 25, 2017
David Anderson
@Major Major Major Major: No they have to have budget impact and relevant to the committees of jurisdiction. An amendment to rename the Pittsburgh Post Office the “Yinz Letter Drop Dahntahn” would not be germane
rikyrah
Why it’s unwise for Trump to target Alaska’s Lisa Murkowski
07/26/17 09:23 AM—UPDATED 07/26/17 09:26 AM
By Steve Benen
At a White House event yesterday afternoon, Donald Trump acknowledged that his party had cleared a procedural hurdle as part of its health care crusade. The president’s Republican Party, however, was not unified in the endeavor.
“So we had two Republicans that went against us, which is very sad, I think,” Trump said. “It’s very, very sad – for them.”
This morning, the president kept it going, this time singling out Sen. Lisa Murkowksi (R) of Alaska with an angry tweet:
First, the idea that Murkwoski let down the entire country by standing up for health care benefits is plainly bonkers.
Second, it’s not at all clear why Trump is singling out the Alaska Republican for a very public rebuke. Murkowski wasn’t the only GOP senator to vote against the procedural measure yesterday afternoon, and she was one of nine GOP senators to break ranks on a “repeal and replace” measure last night.
But even putting that aside, Trump’s tweet was strategically unwise if he’s serious about reaching his own goals.
Mark B
@Bill: I think there’s a consensus that the Republicans have to pass some sort of shit bill to avoid looking like failures who can’t do anything. So instead of doing nothing, they are going to do something bad that will take health care away from millions and end up in a lot of needless deaths. But the rich will get tax cuts and they will get to declare victory, which is all that matters to them.
azlib
This is insane. And these people are suppose to be our leaders? I keep expecting to wake up from this bad dream.
Major Major Major Major
@David Anderson: Ah, I stand corrected. I must be thinking of something else then. Budgets?
dr. bloor
@Mark B: You have Yahtzee. Meanwhile, the Guardians of the Republic in our media will continue splooging to McCain’s cynical valedictory.
We. Are. Screwed.
rikyrah
The Skinny Repeal does more than repeal the IndvMandate. It also repeals the Employer Mandate & many taxes. Those 3 = industry collapse. 1/
— bardgal (@bardgal) July 26, 2017
-raises. Trump & GOP PROMISED BETTER than the ACA. So far there’s NOTHING BETTER. Only WORSE & more EXPENSIVE, along with everything we- 3/
— bardgal (@bardgal) July 26, 2017
willing to kill people just to destroy Obama’s legacy & give a tax cut to people who don’t need one. They’re not serious on HEALTH. 5/
— bardgal (@bardgal) July 26, 2017
Junk policies legal again. Kicked off your plan for being sick, legal again. Pre-existing conditions back. Coverage denied. 7/
— bardgal (@bardgal) July 26, 2017
The ACA is still FAR BETTER than any GOP bill. Hold them to their promise: Better insurance for LESS money. For EVERYONE.#NoRepeal 8/8
— bardgal (@bardgal) July 26, 2017
rikyrah
When our people are sick and tired and terrified. When they’ve given everything they’ve got. We don’t abandon them. We pull them up. pic.twitter.com/CCNk9bYWJS
— Rep. Joe Kennedy III (@RepJoeKennedy) July 25, 2017
rikyrah
John McCain raced to DC to vote to destroy 32 MILLION LIVES.
What a shameless pathetic disgusting legacy.https://t.co/q7O6kzv6UQ
— Nerdy Wonka (@NerdyWonka) July 25, 2017
John McCain is a COWARD and that is his legacy. Anything he says from now on is pure trash.https://t.co/JEERHzdqBV
— Nerdy Wonka (@NerdyWonka) July 25, 2017
Ohio Mom
Did my calls to Portman’s offices, got a live one in Cleveland who lied to my face (ear?) and said Portman voted against last night’s BCRA. That pissed me off, hate being lied to.
Part of me truly believes it will all work out in the end (though there will be much unnecessary suffering and death in the interim, I am not discounting that).
For instance, they can undo the mandates but it will be like the time I decided I didn’t need one of my regular medicines. I soon found out that it really was helping my asthma. We will all find out that some version of the mandates is an absolute necessity.
In a way, I may be more concerned with what this process is telling us about how broken our democracy is.
Oh well. The house isn’t going to pick up itself…
Epicurus
Not only do the Rethugs need to pass “something” in the Senate, they will then need to reconcile whatever POS does pass in the House conference. This is far from over….
Mark B
@Epicurus: The house (Ryan) has said that they’ll pass whatever version of the bill makes it through the senate unmodified, avoiding conference committees and procedural blockages. The Senate is the whole game now. Whatever shit bill they pass will become law, unless they can be stopped.
Sab
@rikyrah: She is a she, standing up to Trump, hence he hates her.
Betty Cracker
@Bill: This Vox link has a decent overview of the options under consideration.
kindness
So who has the betting pool vote that the last amendment the Senate votes on chucks the entire bill and all the previously agreed up amendments and substitutes what McConnell really wants? You know that is what is going to go down right? Finding 3 principled Republicans to tell Mitch no is not going to happen.
The Moar You Know
@Bill: 51-50 LIKE THEY ALWAYS DO. Motherfuckers.
Ruckus
@NotMax:
The pinto with modern mfg procedures. For this to be a proper analogy they have to start up the pinto with model T production methods and machinery. They have to make it far worse than the original.
Sab
@Ohio Mom: Yeah. His office lied to me yesterday about his vote. How is this Useful? He really thinks we won’t notice how he Voted? At least the Mercers forced a vote, so we will see how he votes. No more Voinovich weasel behavior: tell the press one thing, vote the opposite in the dead of night.
Yarrow
@MomSense: I’ve gone the other direction. Getting my affairs in order…
rikyrah
At least 45,000 people were dying each year from a lack of insurance before ACA. This isn’t hard info to find.
— Mikki Kendall (@Karnythia) July 25, 2017
Jeffro
J-Rubs on point (and with a nice handy summation of how to beat the Republicans about the head and neck going in to 2018): A Defensive Vote on an Offensive Bill
While I appreciate Schumer & Pelosi’s “Better Deal”, 2018 is shaping up to be not all that complicated: the GOP is incapable of taking care of any constituents but the rich – oh and by the way, they’re the ones that took away your Medicaid/caused you to lose your employer-sponsored insurance/caused that huge premium increase you just got slapped with.
Another Scott
Also too, Andy Slavitt’s excellent thread on Twitter last night.
Eyes on the prize, everyone.
Cheers,
Scott.
Yarrow
@Ohio Mom:
Wow. What did you say to them? Did you tell them they were wrong?
A technique that has worked for me is to be all folksy and conversational with the person who answers the phone. Don’t give too much away right away. Then start asking questions. “Hey, has anyone in your family or someone you know ever had cancer? Or heart disease? Or diabetes?” Usually I’ll get at least a, “Yeah….” Follow with, “How would you feel if they got kicked off their health insurance after they got sick so they couldn’t get treatment? Would you like that?” “No…..” “Well, that’s what Senator X is voting to do. Are you okay with that? Are you glad he’s voting to take away health insurance for your family member that had cancer?” Treat it like the lobster in the pot. Start all friendly/cool water and then gradually turn up the heat. That’s how I got one of them to cry.
Jeffro
@rikyrah: I think it’s helpful that we have the tools now to let Reps and Senators know just how many of their own constituents they’re going to screw if the exchanges go under, or if the Medicaid expansion is pulled back. We can even break it down for them in terms of veterans, children, etc. Should make for some exciting ads. Won’t count for much if we don’t start getting folks registered NOW, though.
Lee
As someone on the tweet machine pointed out, the only amendment that matters is the last one. It will probably be from the tortoise.
That is going to be the one that makes the bill.
Yarrow
@rikyrah: He’s beating up on the girl. That’s why he’s targeting her. Also, maybe considering giving Alaska to Russia?
Just One More Canuck
@David Anderson: I’d vote for that though
MomSense
@Yarrow:
That too. If I’m going out, it will be with my boxing gloves on.
Just One More Canuck
@rikyrah: just like his grandpa
Ohio Mom
@Yarrow: Well, yes,
we adults should all have our affairs in order (said the person who still has a few loose ends with her affairs, mostly a couple of very old IRAs that don’t list Ohio Dad and need to be rolled over anyway).
It is one of the nicest things we can do for our loved ones, as anyone who has had to deal with a mess of an estate can tell you.
And I’ll add that one of the silver linings of having a kid with a disability is that it forces you to go to the attorney’s office and sign all those papers (and pay all that
money, ouch), you really can’t put it off.
BUT — it is our moral obligation to cling to life. Other people depend on us, we shouldn’t upend their lives a minute sooner than we have to.
I don’t believe in much but this is a core belief of mine, come to after wrestling with depression most of my life, and also having faced a cancer. It’s an axiom, it is true because it is true (exceptions are people in last stages of terminal diseases, and the measurement for that is hospice-worthiness).
So, get those affairs in order and find the supports you need to flourish.
MomSense
@Ohio Mom:
I was about to say I can’t believe his staffer lied to you but then I realized we are talking about a Republican Senator who just voted to kill and cause financial ruin to a lot of his constituents.
Yarrow
@Jeffro: The Republicans will own everything that happens with healthcare now. Premiums go up for people on employer plans? Republicans did it. Your plan drops coverage for that medication you need? Republicans. Your procedure isn’t covered? Republicans. You can’t get insurance? Republicans.
We need to start talking it up RIGHT NOW to everyone, especially if they work full time and have coverage at work. RIGHT NOW, if your plan doesn’t cover something, it’s the Republicans’ fault. RIGHT NOW, if co-pays are high, it’s the Republicans’ fault. Your co-worker is mad because they had to argue with the insurance company? Republicans’ fault. Start practicing because this is your talking point with EVERYONE until the 2018 election. EVERYTHING that ANYONE hates about their health insurance is Republicans’ fault. They said they were going to fix it right away after taking office. They didn’t. Make them own it.
Ohio Mom
@rikyrah: Yes, there was a study in 2009 conducted by Harvard with those numbers. It is easily googleable, and I mention it to every swarmy intern who answers my calls.
dmsilev
@Jeffro:
Which is, of course, why he voted in favor of BRCA last night. Is there _anything_ McCain can do that will get the media pundits to stop fluffing him?
Jeffro
@dmsilev:
Cut down the tire swing, maybe?
Hell I thought he was done for when he brought Sarah Palin on board and infected the GOP with advanced Tea Party rabies.
Sab
@Ohio Mom: Taking notes from your comments. I will be calling Portman’s office daily from now until he dies or loses his next election. WTF with his interns LYING about his Votes! Mister mild-mannered milquetoast moderate Republican. Jeez and yikes. This ain’t my parents Republican party.
Yarrow
@dmsilev: Nope. He’ll die and go out the Hero-y-est Hero that has ever Heroed and the Mavericky-est Maverick that ever Mavericked. No one ever will have been as Brave and Heroic as John McCain. No one more Principled. No one more Patriotic. No one will have Loved His Country or Served His Country more than John McCain. Get ready for plenty of things to be named after him, from the healthcare bill he’ll vote for to airports to naval vessels. For the next 50 years politicians will be compared to John McCain and found lacking.
zhena gogolia
@dmsilev:
The NYT starts out today with, “He’s always been less of a lion of the Senate than a wildcat . . . .” Make that pu$$ycat. Hold the cat. (Yes, yes, I know it’s misogynist.)
Ohio Mom
@Yarrow: I usually play up my cancer adventure and my kid’s autism. I think being folksy as you put it, down-to-earth, unguarded, intimate, is all key.
It makes it more interesting for me, for one thing (who doesn’t like to talk about themselves? I am my favorite topic). Also, I think those are the sorts of stories that just might get through. I am not going to change Portman unless I win the metaphorical lottery and can out-bribe the Koch brothers. But maybe I can plant a seed in a young person’s head.
I am quite explicit in telling them, You are young, there are things you haven’t experienced yet. You need to listen to information that makes you uncomfortable. You need to summon every bit of spiritual strength, emotional courage, and intellectual honesty because changing your mind can be physically painful. I sometimes tell them that I don’t think a nice person like them wants to spend their life knowing they helped take health care away from people.
But I am too hot-headed to do what you do, pull them along like that. You must be a natural salesman. Glad to know you are using your powers and talents for good!
zhena gogolia
I’m in moderation for using one of our POTUS’s favorite words.
The NYT starts out today with, “John McCain’s always been less of a lion of the Senate than a wildcat . . . .” Make that pu$$ycat. Hold the cat. (Yes, yes, I know it’s misogynist.)
Ohio Mom
@Yarrow: I told her I read it in the New York Times, she said she had the paper in front of her and it didn’t say that. Liars are going to lie.
I am going to print out the article (on further re-giggling, I see it was a Washington Post article), and mail it to the Cleveland Portman Office with a note.
It’s not much but it is all I can do.
rikyrah
@Another Scott:
Slavitt, along with Topher Spiro..have been my spirit warriors in this fight. Without them and Mayhew, I wouldn’t have known how to fight this and with what information.
MomSense
@Ohio Mom:
Are you on twitter? Can you tweet to Portman and Andy Slavitt that Portman’s staffer lied to you on the phone today?
Yarrow
@Ohio Mom: Your way is perhaps more effective. I string them along and then pounce and start yelling. Not so much a good sales technique, I’d guess. Ha.I did make one cry, so…winning?
I had to go to two banks yesterday. I took the opportunity to talk to the tellers about the vote. (It was slow and they were just waiting for the next customer.) In the second one there were two Latinx tellers, one male, one female, both young. I WENT OFF about the vote. Told them Republicans were taking away coverage for pre-existing conditions. Pointed at the young woman and said, “If you ever want to have a child you might want to think about that. They’re treating pregnancy like a pre-existing condition. Won’t be covered.” Her mouth dropped.
They had TVs on behind them, one showing Congress. I said, “Have you ever had someone you love be diagnosed with a disease? Cancer? Heart disease?” They kind of nodded. I pointed at the TV – “You can see who’s taking away coverage for that so they can’t get treatment. Turn around! Watch it. It’s the Republicans taking it away. Not the Democrats. They all voted against. Republicans are taking away your health coverage. Do any of you know someone in a nursing home? Maybe your grandmother? Better get ready for them to come home and live with you because they’re taking away Medicaid and that pays for most nursing homes in the US.” On and on. The male teller said, “I wish I knew more about this.” The female teller kept saying, “That’s wrong. That’s wrong….” I agreed with her and said it was. Then I told them they better be registered to vote because it’s the only way to get those people out of there.
I am not going to shut up. If that makes me the crazy person, so be it. Maybe it’ll get one person to look into it. And if someone starts blaming Republicans for what they lose, all the better.
Sab
@Ohio Mom: Bless you for speaking common sense. Not much of that going around these days.
catclub
@NotMax:
AND that the government will waste federal healthcare dollars by subsidizing purchase of those Pinto’s
Yarrow
@Ohio Mom: That needs to be publicized. Also, there has to be a dot gov website somewhere that posts votes and you can refer to that when calling them. But get the news out that PORTMAN’S OFFICE LIED TO YOU ABOUT HIS VOTE. That’s your talking point. What’s he so afraid of that he’s telling interns to lie abut his vote?
Fair Economist
“Skinny repeal” – which isn’t really repeal, but mandate removal – is going to increase the budget deficit, so it’s not supposed to be reconcilable without a sunset clause. Rates will go up, so the government will pay more in subsidies, and supporting taxes are being removed on top of that.
The long-term consequences of “skinny repeal” would be pretty counterintuitive and not what the Republicans want. The exchanges won’t collapse because most of the current purchasers are subsidized enough to be minimally or moderately protected from the big rate increases that will result. So there will still be an ACA to repair in a few years. The politics, though, will make it very difficult for the Democrats to just put the mandates back so they will likely turn to another method to increase enrollment, probably greatly increased subsidies. That’s going to need taxes, so probably that comes with a boost to the millionaire’s tax or capital gains.
rikyrah
@Yarrow:
BLESS YOU.
ET
A local Capitol Hill community blog has some photos from the Capitol and the Hart Senate office building People are making their presence known.
rikyrah
Michelle Obama Addresses Racist Attacks She Endured As First Lady @LiberalPhenom https://t.co/qZ3TaqGS5V
— debdlund (@DebdLun) July 26, 2017
rikyrah
HERE is WHY Trump is tweeting about transgender troops. Debate is threatening to tank a House bill https://t.co/e2zz3yjSpX https://t.co/TXVaulAIim
— Rachael Bade (@rachaelmbade) July 26, 2017
SatanicPanic
@rikyrah: Our Democrats are learning!
rikyrah
.@POTUS anti-trans pronouncement is ugly and wrong. Discrimination isn’t patriotic — allowing all who love this country to serve, is. pic.twitter.com/OVERwxEu61
— Adam Schiff (@RepAdamSchiff) July 26, 2017
Every patriotic American who is qualified to serve in our military should be able to serve. Full stop.
— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) July 26, 2017
.@POTUS has shown his conduct is driven not by honor, decency, or national security, but by prejudice. https://t.co/PHTlXMhEJg pic.twitter.com/X9rYhn5Jic
— Nancy Pelosi (@NancyPelosi) July 26, 2017
JUST IN: Statement from former Secretary of Defense Ash Carter regarding transgender military service pic.twitter.com/la4GCBaXPO
— NBC Politics (@NBCPolitics) July 26, 2017
Yarrow
@Fair Economist: See what I said above at comment #39. Start NOW repeating that EVERYTHING that ANYONE hates about their health insurance is the Republicans’ fault. Over and over again. Repetition and clarity of message work. They don’t like how far they have to drive to their doctor? Republicans’ fault? Co-pay too high? Republicans’ fault. Republicans said they were going to fix health insurance, make it cheaper and better. Got a problem with it? Republicans fault. Blame Republicans consistently. Over and over.
Another Scott
@Fair Economist: It really is hard to figure out what McConnell is doing here. He doesn’t seem willing to over-rule the Parliamentarian. Many provisions in the rumored bills are clearly non-germane under Reconciliation rules. What’s going on? Is he going to do what Slavitt says and ram something through at the last minute? Is this all just kabuki to tell the rubes, “Hey, we tried, but those Mean old Democrats wouldn’t let us pass anything. Vote for more of us so we can do it next time!!1”
It’s like they are convinced that the rules of the House and Senate don’t apply any more, yet they’re actually unwilling to change the rules so that they can do what their majority claims they want to do.
I guess we’ll find out soon enough, on this, anyway.
Then there’s the Budget and the Debt Limit fiasco coming up.
(groucho-roll-eyes.gif)
Cheers,
Scott.
Ohio Mom
@Yarrow: The intern in Cleveland was especially obtuse, even as interns go.
Anna Freud said “All learning is overcoming resistance,” and it was obvious from our conversation that Cleveland intern is a particularly well-defended specimen.
You are as wound-up as I am, except I didn’t go off in a bank, my famous moments are with the local Autism Society staff and the department at the local children’s hospital that does parent education, mainly by sponsoring workshops and big conferences.
I am actually looking forward to October’s big annual “So your kid with a disability is aging out” conference (actual name is Transition Bootcamp, a name that makes me cringe). By then they should have completely comprehended that yes, they did fuck up when they decided not to worry our pretty little heads about where the money comes from.
Or maybe they’ll just hold the same old break-out session on applying for Meficaid for your kid without mentioning that there is a lot less Medicaid to apply for.
In which case, I’ll have to stand up during the Q and A and ask a question that will embarrass them…
It is funny, I spent most of my life wondering what my calling was, and it turns out it is to be a very loud gadfly.
Immanentize
@Yarrow: I agree — and Trump cannot claim it is Congress — his Vice President had to go across town to vote and make sure it is ALL THE REPUBLICANS FAULT.
rikyrah
SOMEBODY PLEASE FRONTPAGE THIS:
Cantor comes clean, admits he didn’t believe his own ACA rhetoric
07/26/17 11:26 AM—UPDATED 07/26/17 11:37 AM
By Steve Benen
For several years, in his capacity as House Majority Leader, Eric Cantor helped lead the charge on repealing “Obamacare.” Put Republicans in charge, the Virginian told voters, and they’d dismantle the Affordable Care Act.
It was Cantor who helped bring ACA repeal bills to the House floor dozens of times. It was Cantor who helped spearhead “defund Obamacare” campaigns. And it was Cantor, we now know, who didn’t genuinely believe his own nonsense.
The former GOP leader in the House talked to the Washingtonian’s Elaina Plott and conceded that his Republican Party is in a tough spot – parts of the conservative base expect the party to repeal the ACA, because that’s what they were promised – in part because of promises he and his colleagues made that they never intended to keep.
Immanentize
@Another Scott: Part of it is giving his Senators all sorts of confusing cover — “Well, I voted against that thing in the 117th bill before us.”
Immanentize
@Ohio Mom:
One of the most noble of callings….
Another Scott
@Immanentize: OT – Hey, dunno if you saw this a few days ago. :-)
Cheers,
Scott.
daveNYC
@David Anderson: You got anything on what skinny repeal would do to the insurance market/industry whatever? I mean it’d probably break the individual insurance market, but would it happen immediately or what?
Immanentize
@Another Scott: Ha! No I didn’t see that. But that is the phrase from which my nym comes. However, people tend to think of a disaster filled end days, when there is a lot of belief doctrine that actually puts immanentize the eschaton into the world of “Heaven on Earth.” Which is what I think of….
I am thinking about changing my nym to my middle name — Jude. Patron Saint of hopeless cases….
Barbara
@rikyrah: That’s never been an excuse for common criminals.
Amir Khalid
@zhena gogolia:
I think the spelling you want is “puddytat”.
Lulymay
@MomSense:
Mohammed Ali – “rope-a-dope”
Republicans – “vote-a-dope”
ruemara
@rikyrah: I am so sick of former republicans discovering principles and truth once they leave office. fuck them.