I like this article because it combines a critique of the Trump administration’s North Korea policy with an implicit analysis of how a strategy might be done.
We live in strange times. In the US’ White House, the politics of misinformation have metastasised. Analysts who wish to discuss traditional US security and diplomatic interests in northeast Asia must therefore contend with an array of demented statements by the president, thick performances of outrage by his closest aides against what they call “the fake news industrial complex”, the weird convergence of US foreign policy with Trump family interests, the crimson visions of Steven K. Bannon, and of course the tendency of US-Russia relations to overshadow all else amid an expanding investigation of the Trump campaign.
For all of that, in the first six months of its existence, the Trump administration has invested considerable time in the North Korea issue and demonstrated thereby an ability to function with a due level of focus. In an April 4 speech at Johns Hopkins University, scholar Jonathan Pollack noted Trump’s assiduousness with North Korea intelligence briefings, and there has been the general sense that this president has, if nothing else, succeeded briefly in appearing to change the terms of debate.
Trump took an activist approach to discussions with Xi Jinping over the North Korea issue, spontaneously sharing his tweet-sized thoughts on Chinese-North Korean relations. Both James Mattis’ remarks at the Shangri-La Dialogue and Rex Tillerson’s extended remarks at the US State Department on May 3 indicated that North Korea and China’s role in influencing the DPRK has been a preeminent area of foreign policy focus.
Then there is Trump’s Twitter account and an uncoordinated set of comments from others.
If Washington’s message to North Korea has been incoherent, Xi Jinping’s government in Beijing has been hearing a more consistent word from the Trump administration: more. As one particularly carefully crafted question put it at the July 11 foreign ministry briefing in Beijing, the US wants more responsibility, more action and more pressure from China on North Korea. Geng Shuang’s answer was to lambaste Washington’s “China responsibility theory” for North Korea, likening the US and DPRK role in the nuclear crisis to a tai-chi duet of “pushing hands”.
Trump’s tweets from last night, and many other comments of his, indicate that he thinks he can bully China into solving the problem. This shows that he doesn’t understand the situation in East Asia or China’s interests. It also smacks of an executive who is accustomed to pushing anything that requires thought or sustained action off onto others.
North Korea’s recent missile tests have been successful. The missiles tested could reach most of the United States. The North Korean statement on the latest test seem to indicate that in addition to testing the missile system, it sent back telemetry that will be helpful in developing its warhead. That seems to suggest there will be another nuclear test soon.
All these systems are still in development, not yet production and full deployment. Their purpose seems to be mainly for deterrence against the United States. We have time to engage China in discussions as to a way to limit North Korea’s nuclear force and to engage North Korea in talks. China can’t solve this alone, nor can we expect North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons program. We will have to give them something to limit it.
smintheus
With NK all of our options appear to be bad choices. Trump doesn’t seem to be able to make hard choices. That’s almost disastrous for the US in this situation, except it may mean that Trump is also less likely to choose to start a nuclear war.
Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes
Selfish. Lazy. Stupid.
debbie
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes:
Ignorant and incurious also.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
Are there functioning institutions that can help backfill the leadership black hole created by the Trump WH occupation? How do we get them engaged? And certainly these stakeholders, be they Chinese leaders or others, must see the apocalyptic risks involved in letting this get out of hand, right? Help us!
SiubhanDuinne
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes:
….is no way to go through life, son.
Another Scott
Yup.
But more than that, the idea that China is as opposed to the DPRK keeping the US in fits as we are misreads the situation, also too. China wants the USA out of SK, the South China Sea, and wants us weakened in general in the region. China wants to pursue oil production and sea lane control in the SCS. They don’t want the US Navy enforcing free-passage and internationally agreed sea borders.
Of course China doesn’t want Kim blowing up the world, but they don’t want the US taking him out either.
Kim keeping Donnie tied up militarily with ineffective bluster, and Xi keeping Donnie tied up with ineffective whining that make him and the US look weak, strengthens China (and Russia) in Far East Asia.
It’s dangerous and doesn’t advance the US’s interests.
Yes, the only path forward is negotiation and recognition that Kim isn’t going to give up his missiles and nuclear weapons. Donnie’s too stupid to recognize that, and his bluster makes it more and more difficult to end this dangerous conflict.
Cheers,
Scott.
SiubhanDuinne
@debbie:
Somebody in an earlier thread pointed out that he pretty much has all Seven Deadly Sins covered.
Gindy51
This guardian oped is brutal…
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/30/observer-view-of-donald-trump-unifit-for-office?CMP=twt_gu
Cheryl Rofer
@Formerly disgruntled in Oregon: To a small degree, yes. Most career people remain at the Departments of State and Defense, although it would not be surprising if they decided to leave when they got a better offer. There are a number of think-tanks that provide support. But Tillerson and Trump want none of this.
The problems arise primarily from the level of ignorant bluster emitted by the White House and the lack of direction in the departments because Trump won’t fill management positions, along with the upward lobbying for budgets and attention that those unfilled management positions aren’t doing.
Another way to fill the void is for other nations to take up the slack and decide for themselves. Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley tweeted this morning that they’re just not going to say any more about North Korea and leave it up to other nations, which Tillerson and others have declared before. Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron have figured out that they have to stand up in Europe. Japan and South Korea will start thinking about nuclear arsenals of their own.
? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?
https://media3.giphy.com/media/MQrk4KZPIOIGk/200w.gif
I absolutely have no confidence in the lameduck in the White House.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@Cheryl Rofer: There will be plenty of slack available to pick up. A vacuum like this will bring all sorts forward. I hope there are enough sane voices to counter the crazy ones.
gene108
@SiubhanDuinne:
The bolder portion makes me think you believe there is a sin he does not indulge in?
I find that hard to believe.
****************************************
As far as North Korea goes, Trump is just a less polished version of standard Republican operating procedures.
Bush & Co wanted to get all tough with North Korea, unlike the sissy Clinton Administration, which negotiated a deal to give North Korea incentives to shutter its nuclear program. Bush, Jr even included North Korea as member of the Axis of Evil.
North Korea decided to fire up its reactors and by 2006, they had nukes. Because there was so much going wrong in Iraq, the North Korea got nukes issue and why they fired their reactors back up, is largely forgotten.
All I am trying to say is any Republican President would have problems with using diplomacy to solve problems. Name one Republican, who has been in favor of the Iran nuclear deal? Republicans are so batshit crazy, with regards to international negotiations, we cannot even ratify updates to the Law of the Sea Treaty, because it would drain us of our precious bodily fluids or something.
gene108
@Another Scott:
Weakened in the world, you mean. China wants to be a global superpower. They have made serious inroads into Africa, for example, which we have largely ignored.
RepubAnon
They always say that bullies are really cowards, who retreat when confronted. Trump confirms that saying.
No Drought No More
I may or may not have known that only the eastern seaboard was in immediate danger of nuclear annihilation. But with the help of Bugs Bunny, Daffy Duck and assorted other friends, I kept my cool in ’62 during the Cuban Missile crisis.
But the missiles that belong to that North Korean maniac point towards northern California, and I find that unacceptable.
To quote the great Paul Simon, “I don’t find this stuff amusing anymore”.
Cheryl Rofer
@No Drought No More: The latest couple of tests suggest that North Korea can reach anywhere in the US.
Laura Rozen just tweeted a thread of what she was told was the Trump administration plan for foreign policy.
Ilan Goldenberg, who was in the Obama Defense Department, summarized:
MattF
@Cheryl Rofer: ‘Tweet-sized thoughts.’
Villago Delenda Est
I hope the adults that I know are in the Pentagon do something about this shit.
SiubhanDuinne
@gene108:
Well, I didn’t participate actively in that discussion, but one of the commenters was a bit wobbly on the “greed” thing, although s/he acknowledged the excruciatingly poor taste of ketchup on a well-done steak. Personally, I think a good case can be made that he does indeed exemplify all seven.
SiubhanDuinne
@Cheryl Rofer:
Who the hell wrote that, the Underpants Gnomes?
Felonius Monk
@SiubhanDuinne:
Probably that great diplomat and superhero Jared Kushner.
Steeplejack
@SiubhanDuinne:
I think gluttony was the wobbly one.
JPL
@Cheryl Rofer: That sounds about right. I sure hope that Kelly mentions that it is an impossible task.
Thoughtful David
@gene108: South America, too, although not as significant as in Africa.
The biggest beneficiary of the Trump win and resulting chaos is the Chinese. They’re gaining on practically all international leadership fronts and trade issues. Like hell if they want the Trump incompetence and chaos to end. They didn’t even have to get their hands dirty like the Russians, and still have gained more than the Russians.
This is why I say the chaos won’t end until long after Trump, Pence, Ryan, McConnell, Sessions, Javanka, Tillerson, and various other Republican miscreants are gone. It’s to the Chinese’s advantage for the US to be in chaos, and they see how it can be done with a few leaks, and thoughtfully applied loans and purchases. They’ll want to keep this going for as long as they can. They’re just sitting back and watching the US soft power crater, and enjoying every minute of it.
The Russians too. They won’t let this stop. But they haven’t benefited as much as the Chinese.
HinTN
@Cheryl Rofer: Have you seen this in Vanity Fair?
http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/07/department-of-energy-risks-michael-lewis?mbid=social_facebook
Cheryl Rofer
@SiubhanDuinne: This follows something I’ve been thinking of doing a tweetstream on for the past week or so. We are now seeing that Trump is indeed who I’ve been saying he is: that fat old guy in the restaurant who loudly proclaims that nobody in Washington knows what they’re doing and he could do a better job. He also returns his steak to the kitchen because it’s not well enough done and then complains that it’s tough. He stiffs the waiter.
It was clear through the campaign that Trump knew nothing about foreign policy. And he doesn’t want to learn.
Felonius Monk may well be right.
JPL
Laura Rozen retweeted this in response to Trump’s plans.
Cheryl Rofer
@HinTN: Yes. I am working on a post on that, but it takes time and the past few days have been busy. But there will be a post. I’ve been junking too many of them when something new comes up. But the relevance of something like that continues.
Yarrow
@Cheryl Rofer: This seems about right:
Cheryl Rofer
@Yarrow: People are worrying about the “wag the dog” scenario too.
[Gotta go now – will be back this evening and will check this thread.]
HinTN
@Cheryl Rofer: It is truly frightening how disconnected the whole bunch of them are. Autopilot inappropriately responding to a stall.
Ruckus
@HinTN:
More like autopilot turned on when they were upside down in a cloud.
Waratah
Trump delegates North Korea to the Chinese and Syria Iran to Putin. Problem solved. Right?
WaterGirl
@Steeplejack: Neither one of those seems wobbly to me!
chris
@Cheryl Rofer: Don’t want to overload you but this piece on the EPA seems pertinent. I’m sure there are many articles on the State Department too, and we know about Education, but Energy and the EPA can, and will, kill people. It’s gonna be a long road back to normal. If that chance ever comes.
sharl
One of Donald’s old tricks as a shitty real estate developer was to stiff contractors by claiming they did shoddy work and initially refusing to pay, ultimately agreeing to pay 70 cents on the dollar of the original agreement, or else face his lawyers in court, a prospect many contractors could not afford. (Ultimately he met his match when he tried pulling stuff like that with bankers.)
Twitler doesn’t like the stink of embarrassment that comes with public failure. I wonder if one of his alt-right team of brainiac advisors has yet suggested a re-invasion of Grenada (or similar small defenseless country) as a pick-me-up for morale? As I recall it worked for Reagan – at least from a domestic politics perspective – to push the country into forgetting all those Marines who were killed in their barracks during that extremely ill-advised introduction of our forces into Lebanon. Simple and extremely stupid ideas like this seem to appeal to him…
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@gene108:
Trump raising a graven image and worshiping seems excessive energetic for Trump.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Cheryl Rofer: So the plan is;
STEP 1 Make North Korea a priority
STEP 2 ?
STEP 3 2018 electoral victory.
Well let it never be said Trump isn’t a businessman with that kind of planning
Chris
@Thoughtful David:
Of the big three, the Chinese seem to be the only ones with their eyes on the ball at the moment. The Russians are fixated on revenge for their perceived humiliations after 1991, and don’t seem to care whether their attempts to subvert the West end up crashing the world economy. The Americans are, for the moment, equally and even more pettily ego-driven, without even the justification of a recent trauma that the Russians have, only a vague sense that their ass isn’t being kissed enough and they can change that with enough pointless bluster.
Fifty years ago, America and Russia were the status quo powers, and China was the international community’s bomb-throwing anarchist. Seems the positions have been neatly reversed.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Cheryl Rofer:
It would be a concern but this admin doesn’t seem capable of that kind of planning. Knowing Trump and the way he punishes his own when defied by outsiders, most likely Trump will issue an ultimatum against NK and when NK refuses Trump will order an attack on North Carolina.
Brachiator
@Chris:
Huh? The US and the Soviet Union had proxy wars going all over the place. Where was China a problem?
Yarrow
@Cheryl Rofer:
I can see that. I don’t think it would be particularly well planned, but I can see them creating fake controversy to change the subject and get support.
Brachiator
. I’m not sure that we have anything to give Me Korea. They seem to be pretty determined even if their own people suffer. Have we been able to do anything to influence Israel, India or Pakistan, which also have nuclear weapons?
Chris
@Brachiator:
The Russians were the ones settling down into their relationship with the U.S. at the time, setting up the red telephone in the early sixties, settling down into détente by the end of the decade, and generally trying to prevent tensions from erupting into cataclysmic events as the Cuban missile crisis almost did. The Chinese were the ones who considered this treason and heresy. Though they did come around eventually.
Brachiator
Hmmm Putin orders 755 US diplomats out of Russia. Does this mean that the Putin and Trump love affair is over?
Another Scott
Speaking of White House chaos, Andy Slavitt’s thread says Trump’s CSR payments threat won’t work.
It would be good to see Richard-David’s take.
Cheers,
Scott.
Thoughtful David
@Chris: True, but I agree with Brachiator, the Chinese were never the bomb throwers that the US has become. They tried to play within their local sphere (Vietnam, Koreas, etc.), but never seemed to have the global ambition to disrupt that the US now has.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: My bet’s on North Dakota.
Thoughtful David
@Brachiator: Nope. There never was a “love affair,” it was always an owner-servant relationship. Putin’s reminding him that Putin’s reach is long.
The Lodger
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: He’s put his own name on a lot of buildings in an attempt to impress people. You make the call.
Another Scott
@Chris: I agree that China seems to be sitting pretty at the moment, but Putin is rather transparently carrying out his plans, too.
Putin is doing everything he can to look strong for re-election next year even though the economy is in the crapper.
The Ukraine invasion is not the great victory he was hoping for.
He was forced to intervene in Syria to keep Russia’s base(s) there because his ally Assad was nearing collapse, and to plausibly keep up the appearance that Russia is a strong ally. Now he’s stuck and can’t get out of a conflict that shows no sign of ending even after Daesh is defeated.
He thought supporting Donnie would get the sanctions lifted and lots of western investment in his oil sector. Instead he lost two prime pieces of real estate in the US, a bunch of “diplomats” were exposed as spies, and he’s got even more sanctions to deal with.
The only effective threat to Putin’s power at home is the economy. That’s why he’s desperate to get the sanctions lifted. And he needs higher oil and gas prices, and he needs to convince EU countries not to turn away from Russia as their source of energy (so that he can have the threat of a cut-off in his back pocket to try to force them away from the US). It’s hard to see anyone in the EU trusting him after his behavior in Ukraine, in the French elections, etc., etc.
Putin has been very effective at breaking things (Brexit, getting Donnie elected, etc.), but he hasn’t been very effective in his ultimate goal. But he’s going to keep trying…
My $0.02.
Cheers,
Scott.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Another Scott: Sounds a whole lot like impounding funds, that really pisses off Congress. Nixon tried that, it went badly.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@The Lodger: With statues of himself with really big hands.
SiubhanDuinne
@Steeplejack:
Gluttony, yes. Sorry.
SiubhanDuinne
@Cheryl Rofer:
Oh, please do! (Be sure to share or link the whole thing here, though. Some of us, me included, don’t do Twitter and only see these when they’re linked to blogs or FB. But that would be an awesome tweetstorm/blogpost.)
The Lodger
@?BillinGlendaleCA: “Let’s have a big hand for the President… because he sure doesn’t have any now.”
SiubhanDuinne
@sharl:
I’m waiting for the Duchy of Grand Fenwick to invade us.
vhh
Vlad has just upped the stakes by throwing out 755 US diplomats. (But hey, Tillerson can use this as part of his layoff scheme for the State Dept). This greatly lessens prospects for diplomatic solutions to, well, just about any potential international crises. And now that Trump has failed on every single one of his domestic agenda items (his 90 day Moslem exclusion policy will expire even before the SC rules on the case) he will be keen to become a Foreign Policy (ie War) President. This is of course exactly how W used 9/11 to (over)compensate for losing the popular vote. And it worked fine, until (a) GI losses in Iraq/Afghanistan passed 4000 and we got caught torturing; (b) ~2000 people drowned because of Hurricane Katrina. So the question now is, how many dead Americans will it take before the US electorate turns on Trump? Or will Vlad finally release the Pee Tape on Youtube?
sukabi
@Cheryl Rofer: what I don’t get is how they think abdicating responsibility and position “makes America great again”.
Morons are going to get us all killed in one way or another.
Thoughtful David
@Thoughtful David: Actually, now that I think of it, this is probably what the secret meeting at the G19+US meeting was about:
Trump: “I need some cover. This Mueller guy is getting close. What can you give me? I know I still owe you bigly, but I can’t pay off for a couple of months. I don’t have the cash and this fucking Congress won’t listen to me about the sanctions. Give me something.”
Putin: “I could throw a bunch of US diplomats out of the country. That would make it look like we’re not best buds or that I own you or anything.”
Trump: “Perfect. It gives me cover, and doesn’t harm our business relationship at all.”
[Putin thinks: “I’ve still got him on the hook for everything, it doesn’t hurt our business dealings, and I get rid of a bunch of pesky spies. Win-win-win!”]
sukabi
@Brachiator: not if Drumpf is a fully owned property of Putin’s.
Sam
The thing that will precipitate action is a South Korean nuclear program coupled to a Japanese long range strike capability. I bet we hear more on the topics in the future.
HinTN
@Another Scott: This more or less supports the thesis that our Ukranian Lyft driver asserted, which was that Putin presents as strong and smart but all he really has is the iron control of a former KGB master and the acquiescence of the masses who want to be led.
LongHairedWeirdo
@smintheus: More proof the GOP cares more for party than country.
*ANYONE* who was all “executive branch is the sole driver of foreign policy” would want that damnfool incompetent out at all costs.
pattonbt
The problem with Russia is, while they are a physically imposing superpower (military and such), they are economically a one trick pony. They have oil, and lots of it. Its a great one trick to have, but its also a new world in the energy sector (to a degree). To win, they need high oil prices, but high oil prices means US and Canada shale (and others) come in to play to reduce oil prices. Low oil hurts Russia badly.
China on the other hand is a multi-trick pony only missing one trick, oil (trying to correct that with their adventures in the South China Sea – and they will prevail without a doubt). China has tons of problems for sure, but they have manufacturing and markets for goods that make it an economic player 100 fold more important than Russia. China is also a physically imposing superpower.
The big winner from the Trump vacuum and international incompetency will be China by far. We have nothing to fear from Russia except thuggery – while potentially unpleasant in itself, its not a massive threat. China, though, is going to steal everyone’s lunch while Trump looks the other way.
Not that I care too much. I think China is on a long term positive ride (they’ve got issues and aren’t the most open society, but they are looking forward not backward).
Cheryl Rofer
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: Yes, the incompetence and apparent inability to plan may save us yet.
Cheryl Rofer
@Brachiator: North Korea wants recognition and respect, particularly from the United States. And a peace treaty. There is still no peace treaty from the Korean War. And food and energy, which have been part of previous agreements. So a somewhat simpler problem than India and Pakistan, which see each other as mortal enemies. North Korea’s mortal enemy is us.
Cheryl Rofer
@SiubhanDuinne: Request noted. What I often do is work through a tweetstream and then incorporate some of the ideas into a post. My tweetstreams are often a type of thinking out loud. I also sometimes Storify them if I want to keep them and think I’m not going to write them up any other way.
Cheryl Rofer
@sukabi: I doubt they think enough to put that much together. All Trump seems to know is passing the buck, and he has no idea of the complex of factors that goes into any foreign policy decision. ANYTHING will piss some off, may give others the idea they can overreach, and will seem unfair to others. There are always too many factors for an easy decision, which is why so many decisions seem to be kicking the can down the street. That is often the smartest thing to do – it doesn’t overturn too much, and a better solution may turn up. Or it buys time to try to build a better solution.
I had a discussion this afternoon that reminded me that part of the purpose of the Iran deal was to buy time to work with Iran to moderate their stand in the world. We’re only two years into the ten or fifteen we bought, but Trump is doing the opposite.