This makes a good point about what Arpaio’s pardon and the timing of the pardon means for the Mueller probe:
It (Arpaio’s pardon) being expected, though, didn’t do much to lessen the surprise at its occurrence. That was in part because of the timing: dropping the news right as the most serious hurricane in half a century was making landfall in Texas on a Friday evening. But even more because of what Arpaio was being pardoned for. Arpaio was convicted of contempt of court after being told to stop racially profiling Hispanics in his county but continuing to do so anyway, in part to bolster his reelection bid. This was a law enforcement official who was ignoring a federal court order and, as a result, was convicted of a misdemeanor.
[…]In other words, if any of Trump’s allies decides to tell special counsel Robert Mueller to stick his subpoena in the south side of the National Mall, Mueller can press a court for contempt charges. The person could be convicted of those charges — and then get a pardon identical to Arpaio’s.
So we can expect Trump to can Mueller and/or pardon people some busy weekend in the future. Just like Nixon did on that one Saturday night.
Villago Delenda Est
That worked out really well for Nixon, in the long run.
Cheryl Rofer
I am seeing some contrary opinions.
1) That if witnesses are pardoned, they MUST testify, since they have lost 5th Amendment protection.
2) That there are so many people who potentially know of Trump wrongdoing that he can’t pardon them all.
IANAL, so I don’t know how this plays out. I see lawyers opining on all sides of the issue on Twitter.
randy khan
In the specific scenario, it’s 99.9999% likely that Mueller would seek civil contempt citations, which are not subject to the pardon power, since civil contempt is not a crime.
I feel like I’m going to have to kill this zombie 100 times.
Baud
@randy khan: People won’t believe you. They want to be terrified.
Raoul
@Cheryl Rofer:
That is a political calculation. Trump won’t care about that. He’ll do it if he thinks it can save his ass (or maybe save Ivanka. His adult male spawn or Kush, I dunno).
Nora
@randy khan: Maybe you should just cut and paste, save yourself some trouble.
People hear “contempt” and think it’s all the same thing. The contempt of court which put Judith Miller in jail is not the same kind of contempt of court Arpaio was convicted of, but the distinction is lost on a lot of people.
randy khan
@Cheryl Rofer:
Jimmy Carter pardoned several hundred thousand draft evaders on his first day in office (which fulfilled a campaign promise, so nobody was surprised). IIRC, he didn’t issue a list of anything, so there is precedent for a blanket pardon.
On the other hand, a President pardoning anyone who might have participated in a crime that benefited that President might even get the attention of the current House and Senate.
Cheryl Rofer
@Raoul: At some point, it will go past a political line. But we’ve been saying that for a while, haven’t we?
Amir Khalid
Let me repost this comment from the previous thread:
Gvg
What is this most serious hurricane in half a century nonsense? Katrina wasn’t that long ago. Andrew was pretty serious too. There have been others recently. Geez.
Yes he picked an insensitive time that just compounds how bad he is, but sticking to the truth is bad enough and makes writers more credible.
zhena gogolia
@Baud:
hahaha especially around here
Roger Moore
@Cheryl Rofer:
The point here, though, is that the only penalty for not testifying would be contempt of court, and Trump has just proven his willingness to pardon that.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Baud: with regard to Meuller, I’m no so much terrified as disgusted. What terrifies me about the Arpaio thing is that it’s one more signal to LEOs– after Sessions, after “take your hand away”, as ICE is apparently checking evacuees in TX for their “papers”– that there are no limits to their conduct. Another signal to racists that they have friends in the White House, the Justice Dept and the Republican Party.
Quinerly
@Cheryl Rofer:
And they refuse to testify. He eventually pardons them again. Just repeating what I’m reading. When I have time, want to check some legal sources and the lawfare blog. No matter, we are in uncharted waters, with every boundary to be pushed by Trump.
randy khan
@Nora:
LOL.
In practice, the penalties for civil contempt sometimes are worse than the penalties for criminal contempt. I slightly know (as in, I’ve met her a couple of times) someone who spent a couple of years in jail for civil contempt for refusing to make her daughter available to her ex-husband for visitation.
Quinerly
@Roger Moore:
Looks like you beat me.?
randy khan
@Roger Moore:
@Quinerly:
See my post above @3.
Gvg
@Amir Khalid: my feeling is Trump is too stupid to understand this distinction and some of the other witnesses are too. I am sure it’s been explained to him, but I still think he will try it when he gets panicked enough. Not sure what happens then because it will be a confused mess.
In the aftermath I want to see democratic candidates for all office pointing out that stupidity is always bad in office and voters shouldn’t pick them.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Roger Moore: Except at some point it turns the whole system into a joke and to much for even a Republican congress.
And as a sign Trump is felling the pressure
yahoo.com/news/donald-trump-apos-telling-change-182440792.html
Yahoo is pointing out Trump’s added all these flags to the Oval Office to scream “I’m the president” at everyone.
tobie
I’d be really grateful if someone could explain what future criminal cases Arpaio has preemptively been pardoned for. That’s what I don’t get about the President’s absolute pardon power. How can it extend to future criminal charges? How broad is the pardon with respect to possible charges in the future? For instance, couldn’t Manafort be pardoned for one set of crimes pertaining to money laundering but not for conspiracy to commit election fraud?
Another Scott
I decided to look around to see whether Richard Posner has chimed in on this yet – recognizing it’s still very early. He’s been an interesting read in the past, in my experience, even though his book on impeaching Clinton was quite a mess (IMO) (and may be more representative of his actual approach to the law).
I came across this piece from July. Posner seems to have turned into a bit of a troll. :-/ Still, I don’t know of any other federal judge who isn’t afraid to actually speak his mind on what the SCOTUS and national politicians are doing.
Still, even if he’s gone (farther?) into cranky old judge mode, it would be interesting to see what he thinks of this pardon of Arpaio…
Cheers,
Scott.
Kelly
@randy khan: That is comforting news. I’m not a lawyer and had no idea about civil vs criminal contempt.
Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes
So as we’re discussing pardons, let’s have a little exercise.
Say you’re Gerald Ford, and you’ve been thrust by resignation into the Presidency. The following facts apply:
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Amir Khalid: What makes you think Trump devotes that kind of thought to things? Arpaio sucked up to Trump and Trump is desperate for anyone to respect Trump as president. Even Bannon doesn’t treat Trump seriously as president.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
must be a great comfort to Steve to know his boss has issued a strongly worded statement of disappointment,
randy khan
@tobie:
It doesn’t extend to future crimes, so he hasn’t been pardoned for any of them.
tobie
@randy khan: Thanks for the explanation. I gather, however, that there is such a thing as a preemptive pardon. Think Richard Nixon. My question–which likely exposes my ignorance–is how broadly a preemptive pardon is defined. Can it become a blanket pardon for crimes not specifically identified at the time of the pardon?
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Note: Trump’s rating are down in the dump and getting lower, this with Trump doubling down on the transgender ban and having yet another campaign rally next week (because, you know its not like a major Hurricane as struck the US and there is a budget crises looming) This is Trump throwing red meat meet to his audience try and get them back.
Amir Khalid
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
I agree with you about Trump. And I didn’t suggest that it was he who did that thinking, if indeed anyone did.
Cheryl Rofer
@Quinerly: Definitely in uncharted waters, but we’ve known that since November 9. Now the specifics are being filled in. Certain types of contempt can’t be pardoned, according to the lawyers I’m seeing comment. There are limits to the kinds of crimes that a President can pardon.
Alternative Fax, a hip hop artist from Idaho
@randy khan:
You’re a hoper, aren’t you? Denial is strong with this group.
Baud
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Yes. That’s true.
Baud
@Cheryl Rofer: No. Civil contempt is not a crime. That’s why the president can’t pardon. There’s no limit to the federal crimes the president can pardon.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
the Blessed General Kelly might as well have cosigned the Arpaio pardon
Baud
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: True. And purely as a political matter, it’s way to soon to know whether it will work.
Another Scott
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes – Please to try again? FYWP seems to have eaten half your comment.
I found Ford’s pardon proclamation yesterday. Reviewing it is a good reminder that the pardon cut-off the possibility of future prosecution for his actions as president. It was (claimed) to prevent years of conflict and political battles that would weaken the US and the Presidency.
But it didn’t somehow clear Nixon’s name or clear the way for him to serve in any other political office. Trump and Arpaio seem to think that his pardon is a Golden Ticket to carry on doing what he was doing as Sheriff (assuming the voters are stupid enough to elect him again).
Trump is playing with fire here. I think it’s clear that, as Tribe and others have said, the pardon power doesn’t apply to crimes that the president was involved in. Of course, lawyers can argue about it – they’re paid to argue about anything – but “no one can judge their own case” is pretty fundamental.
We’ll see.
My $0.02.
Cheers,
Scott.
Quinerly
@Cheryl Rofer:
Yes, there is a difference. But in reality, who’s going to stop him?
Villago Delenda Est
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: “A man who must say ‘I am the king’ is no true king.” – Tywin Lanister.
? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?
Everybody’s Working for the Weekend -Loverboy?
Cheryl Rofer
@Baud: But not state crimes.
randy khan
@tobie:
A President can pardon people for crimes they’ve committed in the past, whether or not they’ve been prosecuted – hence the Jimmy Carter pardon for draft evaders. It isn’t possible to pardon someone for crimes that haven’t occurred.
Baud
@Quinerly: No one can stop him. The courts will ignore him however.
Baud
@Cheryl Rofer: Right.
randy khan
@Baud:
But we should add that the President cannot pardon people for state crimes – the power is limited to federal crimes. So if New York convicts Manafort or Flynn for fraud, there’s nothing the President can do about it.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
this would go to the Supremes, wouldn’t it?
feebog
Wouldn’t a pardon for a witness who has been convicted of contempt be a clear cut case of obstruction of justice? In fact even a preemptive pardon would arguably be obstruction. There is nothing to stop Mueller from making an interim report to the Justice Department, making the case that the President is guilty of obstruction of justice, throwing in the Comey firing and all the contact with Congress critters trying to get them to drop their congressional investigations. Ryan would then have to make a choice.
Chitown Kev
@Gvg: Well… it’s the last Cat 4 to make landfall in Texas since the one that made Dan Rather quite well known.
Cheryl Rofer
randy khan
@Quinerly:
The judge who issued the civil contempt citation.
? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?
@Gvg:
I’m sorry, who are you?
Baud
@feebog: Well nothing is clear cut since no president has engaged in such an abuse of power.
Betty Cracker
I suspect Trump’s pardon of Arpaio was less a signal to associates caught up in the Russia probe as a sign to white nationalists and phony “law and order” types whose twisted notions of justice include the ability to engage in racial profiling, brutalize and kill suspects, and murder and harass protesters. The next triumph for these scumbags will be when Trump rescinds DACA or allows it to expire, which amounts to the same thing. I think he’ll go with rescinding it because that’s the more aggressive asshole move.
oatler.
It would be nice to see that old ‘roid die of old age but I suspect he’s one of The Immortals, like Kissinger.
feebog
@Baud:
Yeah, I get we are in uncharted waters here. But certainly everyone but the 27% braindead zombies would understand a line had been crossed. Also, the thought occurs to me, what is to keep Mueller from issuing a second subpoena? Now that would be unchartered waters.
? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?
@Cheryl Rofer:
I mean I understand why he couldn’t namedrop Trump or the Republicans, but it still sounds too both sidery for me. I’d be curious to know what he privately felt.
Baud
@Betty Cracker: That makes sense.
DougJ
@? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?:
Yes
Baud
@feebog: Nothing as far as I know.
Thoughtful David
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
It will never be repaired. Maybe the internal damage can be repaired in 10 years or a generation, but the international damage is permanent. Our reputation is totally trashed in the rest of the world, and there are several countries who would like it to remain so. They’ll work very hard to make sure we don’t recover our previous standing.
I’m particularly talking about China. Yes, I know their economy and governmental system has problems. But we just dropped out of the TPP and handed huge advantages to them in southeast Asian trade. The Chinese won’t readily give that up, ever. Likewise on the Paris Accords. The US is no longer (well, hasn’t been for a while) a leader on climate change, and the Chinese will fight like hell to make sure we can’t ever get into that position again.
And give us a little default on the US national debt here in a few weeks? The Chinese will start making a play with like-minded countries that the world needs a new reserve currency or basket of currencies. That will cause a permanent loss in some of the advantages we’ve enjoyed by being the reserve currency, things that very few Americans even know about.
Chitown Kev
youtube.com/watch?v=MW9njTWaSFI&t=17s
Rather never really lost a slight Texas lilt in his accent but they obviously trained broadcast journalists very early in their careers into the flat Midwest accent…nowadays, you do hear more regional accents in local news, it seems.
Cheryl Rofer
Amir Khalid
@Another Scott:
It’s unlikely, given his advanced age and unpopularity, that Arpaio will ever again be elected to any office in what remains of his life. Or that any candidate for Sheriff in Maricopa County would admit to wanting to emulate Arpaio’s approach to the job. I think Arpaio sees the pardon more as a vindication of his actions and motives.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
and the whole Pacific, no? Canada, Mexico and South America? I don’t know much about trade, but it seems to me we’re looking at a four year (at least) period during which patterns and relationships will be established with the US as a greatly reduced factor
@Cheryl Rofer: @Amir Khalid: also, as Cheryl and Soledad and others have said today, Arpaio will almost certainly spend the rest of his life and any money he has in litigation
Nora
@Cheryl Rofer: This is really kind of odd to me. I noticed when Trump was making his speech about Afghanistan he did a similar thing, telling the troops that they’re going to help Americans find their unity again, or treat each other well again. It makes no sense to me. The country is not divided because of anything the military can repair. Suggesting that the military is an example of how Americans should be able to get along together is so fractally wrong I can’t understand how anyone could even SAY that.
? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?
@Thoughtful David:
How do you think the American public will react to finding this out? Temper tantrums?
Baud
@Thoughtful David: All real concerns.
Villago Delenda Est
@? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?: Odds are good that they’ll blame Obama for it.
Amir Khalid
@feebog:
It would’ve been … interesting, if there had been a move to impeach Ford for pardoning Nixon, wouldn’t it?
Cheryl Rofer
@Nora: Mattis is saying, wait until America repairs itself. The military has been first in equality in many aspects, starting with Truman’s integrating blacks right after WWII. When Trump talks about the military and unity, he is saying, “toe the line, America.”
Mattis is walking a very thin line, but the way I read what he’s saying, it’s in contrast to what Trump is doing. Now we’ll see how Mattis deals with the trans ban.
? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?
@Nora:
Easy, Trump wishes all of us would follow his commands without question. He’d love that. Make no mistake he WANTS very badly to be a dictator. That’s partly why he likes to hang around people like Putin or the Turkish President. They are his idols.
Suzanne
@Betty Cracker:
Agree. I just have a hard time believing that the dude has planned his chess moves out that far. I think he just wants to feel loved and pardoning Arpaio is one of those culture war things he can do to bask in some adulation. I could be wrong. I just don’t think Dampnut is very smart or strategic.
Frankensteinbeck
Everyone is overthinking this. Trump does not do strategy or consistency. He does not show loyalty to those loyal to him. On the contrary, he throws them to the wolves, even when he does not have to.
Trump pardoned Arpaio because Trump is a hardcore racist, and he admires Arpaio’s sadism to minorities. It galls him that hurting minorities is illegal. On top of that, he is utterly, biliously furious that he had to publicly denounce Nazis, who he agrees with. He is lashing out, being as bigoted as he can get away with.
There are no other implications. Trump does not think about the future or anything besides his feelings. He’s just a mean, spiteful, white supremacist asshole.
Amir Khalid
@Cheryl Rofer:
I keep thinking that Mattis and the Generals (now there’s a name for a rock band) might come back to Trump and say something like, “We checked the rulebook. No can do, boss.” Is this a real possibility?
Nora
@Cheryl Rofer: Interesting viewpoint, and you might be right. Of course, the armed services weren’t integrated in spite of the president, but due to the pushing of the president in that direction. There is no way in this world that Trump will ever push in the right direction.
Thoughtful David
@? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?:
No, they’ll remain clueless. But big businesses and exporters will know.
So, no, I don’t expect any political repercussions from it. I’m just saying that it’s real damage and that it’s permanent.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Amir Khalid: I suspect trump now thinks he’s “done something”, so he’ll move on to the next shiny object: Harassing Ryan and McConnell about their tax plans which will somehow be deemed inadequate.
Suzanne
@Frankensteinbeck: I see that you and I are reading the situation in much the same fashion.
lapassionara
@randy khan: Agree, good explanation. Notably, Ford’s pardon of Nixon was only preemptive in the sense that Nixon had not yet been indicted for the various criminal offenses that formed the basis of his potential impeachment. There was a real question whether a pardon can issue in the absence of an indictment. Ford found an old case that stood for the proposition that a pardon presupposes that a crime was committed and that the offender had plead guilty (or something like that). So, Ford’s pardon “preempted” the process of getting an indictment and going through the process of either trying the case or obtaining a guilty plea.
Aimai
@Nora: because he means its integrated, racially.
Frankensteinbeck
@Suzanne:
I don’t even think he did it to be loved, although that is certainly one of his biggest normal drives. He got enough pushback ahead of time in his inner circle to know he would get shit for it. He hates that. I think his primary motivations were spite and racism. One thing that is becoming increasingly clear is that Trump is extreme, Nazi levels of racist.
Matt McIrvin
@randy khan: So… suppose you just ignore the civil contempt citation? Isn’t that a crime, for which a pardon would be possible?
schrodingers_cat
@Betty Cracker: He is doubling down on immigrant hate, Arapaio, DACA repeal all make sense from that POV.
Baud
@Frankensteinbeck: Explains why he did it in secret instead of making a big show of it.
JPL
@feebog:
He already has made his choice. Ridding us of social security, medicare and medicaid are his ultimate goals. Short term he’ll take the tax cuts and make changes to the ACA.
SiubhanDuinne
@Gvg:
This seems a little harsh. There are all kinds of ways to measure “most serious” — measurable wind speed, measurable rainfall, extent of property damage from wind, extent of property damage from flooding, human death count, number of injuries, number of displaced residents, total cost of repairs (cost to government, cost to insurers, out of pocket costs), length of time it takes for restoration and recovery, and on and on.
When enough time has passed that we can have a rear-view mirror look at Harvey, it may prove to be “the worst” in one or more of those categories. Or maybe not. But it will be months or possibly years before we can say with any assurance. The point is that this was a very, very, very serious storm, and it was and is important for people to know that and take appropriate precautions — not to argue about its relative ranking on the “serious hurricanes” list.
ETA: Anyhow, upon rereading the excerpt to which you are objecting, it seems the writer is talking obout severity of hurricanes to hit Texas, not in all the U.S. It’s a little ambiguous, though.
Baud
@Matt McIrvin: You can be jailed to enforce compliance. No crime needed.
Jay C
@Amir Khalid:
Actually, from what I’ve read (so far), the military brass is – to put it mildly – less-than-enthusiastic about implementing Trump’s trans ban, and seem to want to resort to the time-honored method of putting the issue off for “study” for (I think) another six months. On an objective basis, though, there doesn’t seem to be much the Services can actually (legally) do about circumventing a personnel policy like this (transpeople not being, AFAICR, one of those “protected classes” vis-a-vis discrimination rules – which may or may not apply to the military anyway). They can, of course, foot-drag and delay as much as possible, but, disgustingly, there doesn’t seem to be a way to countermand this policy.
debbie
Are there any lawyers advising Trump? You’d think someone would have told him that pardoning Arpaio would have made him look guilty.
Matt McIrvin
@tobie: Nixon wasn’t pardoned for crimes he hadn’t committed yet, just for crimes he hadn’t been convicted of yet. There’s a distinction, I think.
Omnes Omnibus
@Matt McIrvin: You can sit in jail for civil contempt.
Davebo
@Baud: Just ask Judith Miller.
Baud
@Davebo: She’d just lie to me.
SFAW
@randy khan:
Yeah, I’d bet my Powerball winnings that Paul Ryan would lead the charge on that.
Matt McIrvin
@Gvg: Harvey made landfall as a more powerful hurricane than Katrina, and it’s going to stick around longer. What made Katrina so bad was that its storm surge hit a city built below sea level and protected by a defective levee/floodwall system that was an apocalyptic flood disaster waiting to happen. But we don’t actually know yet whether this will be less bad.
Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes
@lapassionara:
Given the temporal proximity to the clear mandate election of 1972, I can’t say that Ford was illogical in his analysis that led him to the pardon.
Given current events, Im coming to the impression that conservadems, neoliberal corporate shill Dems, Third Way Dems and “moderate” Republicans constantly disappoint, betray and stymie True Progressives because of the sheer number of raging, gaping assholes in the conservative base.
The politicians are symptoms, not the cause. The real cause is a disease in white conservative Christian culture.
trollhattan
@Matt McIrvin:
If it parks for days and dumps the predicted yard of rain, the flood damage may be phenomenally bad. We just don’t know.
Baud
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes: I don’t know what your middle paragraph means.
SFAW
@JPL:
As me baby brudder says, Paul Ryan wakes up every day, thinking up new ways to hurt people.
Example # 3,437 proving that there is no such thing as a Just God.
Davebo
@Matt McIrvin: The fear was that Harvey would bounce back out in the Gulf and move east towards Houston.
Never made sense to me given the barometric pressure readings I was seeing online.
It’s now approaching west of Cuero and I would not want to be in San Antonio this afternoon. Riverwalk is going to be a mess!
As of 10:00 it was at 28.9°N 97.3°W moving 2mph at 350 heading. Should pass just east of San Antonio.
Matt McIrvin
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: The damage Trump’s policy actions have done to the Earth’s climate alone may last several thousand years.
Another Scott
@Frankensteinbeck: I think you’re right. Everyone is over-thinking this.
And to get back to Doug!’s question, everyone is probably overthinking all of that too.
The question of Trump pardoning himself won’t come up unless he is about to be forced from office. At that point, he won’t pardon himself, he’ll have Pence do it (“to protect the country from years of litigation that will weaken the Presidency and the USA”), or whomever follows Pence…
I hope we keep an eye on this, but mostly hope that we aren’t too distracted by the other tasks at hand.
Note that Trump is continuing to drive whatever it is we talk about. :-(
We need to take the memes and the news cycle back.
There’s a special election for school board in Fairfax County, VA on Tuesday. There are elections in Virginia, New Jersey, and other isolated places in November, 2017. We need to win every seat we can, to start turning the tide in 2018 and 2020. 2020 is critical, of course, because of redistricting.
Consider giving to things like Crowdpac if you can.
We can’t get too distracted. Getting sensible people back into office is the key to progress.
Eyes on the prize.
Cheers,
Scott.
Cheryl Rofer
@Amir Khalid: It depends. Mattis seems to be a smart guy, so he probably sees (or should after this last week) that if you tell Trump to do something, he freaks out and does the opposite, in spades. Particularly if the press is on the side of the person telling him to do something.
We’ve all had to do this with our bosses to some degree: tell them gently, so they can take the idea in as their own. Some are messed up enough that they can’t do that; I had one of those. It does appear that sometimes Trump can be swayed, although it always seems to be in the wrong direction.
So I doubt that Mattis will tell Trump he’s wrong as baldly as you suggest. A number of groups are threatening lawsuits. That seems to have had occasional effect on Trump. Mattis is probably at least waiting to see how many are filed on Monday.
Davebo
Getting ready to get really ugly where I am at least rain wise and I’m sitting 25′ from the lake.
Davebo
@Cheryl Rofer:
That’s surely to go well for Trump given how hard he’s tried to get on the good side of federal judges!
matryohshka
@Frankensteinbeck: Your comments on the last few threads I have read have been very helpful, focused, and clear-headed. Thank you.
Frankensteinbeck
@Baud:
I’m pretty sure it means the American voting public is vastly more backwards and duck headed than most people want to believe, this is why we don’t have Nice Things, and the Comte is constantly irritated by how some people think it’s because the Democratic establishment does not want Nice Things.
Frankensteinbeck
@Davebo:
Yikes! Good luck and keep us updated!
germy
@Suzanne:
He gets the biggest cheers at the rallies when he yells about immigrants and the wall.
Business types always watch to see what’s most popular. If something is flying off the shelves, they rush to restock it. In drumpf’s case, it’s hate.
Frankensteinbeck
@germy:
See, I don’t buy that his racism is for political purposes. Let’s keep in mind, Trump, despite being a legendary miser, paid a large amount of money in the 80s to loudly and publicly argue that the Central Park Five should be executed for a crime they did not commit. He had no expectation of financial, political, or adulation reward. He cared about the issue so much he spent money on it. And it’s far from his only clear record of racism. This man is racist as all living Hell. I’m starting to at least consider the possibility he actually thinks of himself as a Nazi.
Davebo
@Frankensteinbeck: Well it’s a really big lake (> 86,000 acres) so it really just means no outside chores this weekend! Woo Hoo!
TriassicSands
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
Careful, this sounds a lot like the thoroughly derided “now Trump will start acting presidential.” We need to be cautious about expecting the Modern Republican Party to show either a spine or integrity.
tobie
@randy khan: You’re right. I mispoke. What I’m trying to figure out is how broadly a preemptive pardon for possible future prosecution is defined. I gather that many of the targets of Mueller’s probe are being investigated for multiple crimes and that Mueller presumably could prosecute them for any number of offenses. How specific does a preemptive pardon have to be with respect to the pardoned offense? There’s obviously something I’m not getting here, and I do recognize that what’s at issue at the moment is whether Mueller would have the tools to build a case if targets didn’t feel like they had to respect subpeonas because they could rely on a pardon for contempt of court.
Ruckus
@Frankensteinbeck:
Nailed it.
Quinerly
@Matt McIrvin:
The point that several have been making.
tobie
@Another Scott: Thanks for the link. Gave what I could and will see if I can make some phone calls from home.
germy
@Frankensteinbeck:
No doubt.
I was reading about him in the Village Voice and Spy Magazine back in the ’80s. I know what he is. My intention wasn’t to suggest his current behavior is a chess game. He isn’t pretending.
But there were no drumpf rallies in the 1980s. Just kiss ass interviewers like Barbara Walters asking him if he’d consider running for president someday.
His racism: This is the first time he’s being treated like a rock star for it.
efgoldman
@tobie:
Ford’s pardon of Tricksie Dicksie was sweeping – for all offenses he committed or might have committed during his term+ in office – without being specific. OTOH, as i said last night, I’m very surprised at how specific, as to violation, statute and sentence, Arpaio’s is, and wonder if that leaves him open to prosecution on other charges. And of course, the pardon power doesn’t apply to civil matters.
FlipYrWhig
@Aimai: I thought they meant that when the military does big, glorious things it gives the nation a sense of common purpose. I don’t know if it’s true but military types and their admirers say it a lot.
Kyle
@Cheryl Rofer: Also, there’s nothing to preclude a new subpoena. A pardon would not shield your from those.
randy khan
@Matt McIrvin:
Generally, judges require people who are subject to civil contempt to show up in court, so it would be hard to avoid serving your time. If you try to ignore a summons to a court date to hear a civil contempt citation, the Federal Marshals come and get you. It’s not advisable.
randy khan
@SFAW:
Part of the question is whether an action like pardoning everyone would cause widespread (let’s call it) anger among the population, sufficient to scare the Republicans in Congress. I want to think it would, but I also would agree it’s not exactly certain.
Doug!
@randy khan:
Can people be jailed for civil contempt?
randy khan
@tobie:
Remember, no pardons for civil contempt.
On the more general question, I don’t know how broad a pardon could be. It’s really never been tested. A pardon for “all federal crimes previously committed” might work.
Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes
@Frankensteinbeck:
Go to the head of the class.
It is easy for someone in Greenwich Village, Brooklyn, Cambridge, San Francisco, Lakeshore Drive or Louisville’s Highlands or Clifton to be puzzled over the attitudes of white fundamentalist Americans in being more interested in policies of racial and gender exclusion, religious bigotry stifled sexuality and class cruelty than in sensible regulation or scaled social benefits and nice things. After all, nobody they know thinks that way, and they don’t have to interact on a daily basis with people who get off on the casual infliction of pain and cruelty on others as a forge of character. Unfortunately, I see their stupid faces uttering stupid things on a routine basis – I know their cruelties and how they reinforce each other’s cruelties even though they’re not bad people as individuals.
For me, it is a daily tightrope, because my interactions cross boundary lines.
Alternative Fax, a hip hop artist from Idaho
@Doug!: Yup. And are, on a regular basis. See, e.g., Kim Davis in front of Judge David Bunning a couple of years ago. That was civil contempt, when she refused to follow a court order to follow the law.
randy khan
@Doug!:
Yes. I know (slightly) someone who sat in jail for a couple of years for civil contempt. (It was a pretty notorious case in D.C., and I met her only after she was out.) The theory is that civil contempt is coercive, not punitive, but it can effectively be punitive.
tobie
@efgoldman: Thanks for the explanation. You may be right regarding the specificity of the Arpaio pardon. I still find the scope of the President’s pardon power terrifying. Yet again we see that the Constitution was drafted with the assumption that the President would be a person of honor inclined to respect not just laws but norms for the sake of the survival of the republic. We’re learning now how naive that assumption was.
tobie
@randy khan: Oops…looks like efg got there first but I appreciate your thoughtful and patient responses. Have a good day, BJers. Off to the knitting store to calm my ‘frayed’ nerves.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@SFAW:
Of course Ryan wouldn’t want to, but at the end of the day he’s a conservative and one things conservatives loath and fear more than liberals is anarchy. That’s why Charlotsville was such a huge blow to Trump, because it was armed mobs in the streets killing at random in a lilly white town . Trump, being the idiotic twat he is, is going to keep on enabling the neo-nazis because they are basically the only group that likes him and that’s going to put more and more pressure on the GOP to get the country back under control.
Quinerly
I’ll leave this Frum piece here on Sheriff Joe and the signals Trump is sending:theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/08/no-he-wont-back-down/538125/
trnc
@Cheryl Rofer: Not sure how O’Brien’s comment works in practice. Is it possible to not accept a pardon or for a pardon to be overturned? Is there any case where this has happened?
fuckwit
as adam used to say, we are off the map, off the table the map was on, not even in the same room as the map.
Cheryl Rofer
@trnc: As I understand it, a pardon is an admission of guilt. People who have been wronged by the commission of the pardoned crimes then have a basis for civil lawsuits against the pardonee. From what I’m reading, it is possible not to accept a pardon, although it doesn’t look like that is the way Arpaio is going. Don’t know about being overturned.
Over to the lawyers.
Mnemosyne
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes:
My (step)mother is by nature a sweet, kind, generous, and gentle person, but she was literally raised in a trailer park and had a pretty abusive mother, and she was warped by that experience. She can’t bring herself to treat individuals badly, but she still believes some very hateful, toxic things at her core, and liking individual people can’t touch that core. I don’t know if anything can.
And she wasn’t even raised in a religion — she’s an unchurched atheist. She’d be even worse if she had been raised in one of the racist white evangelical churches like the SBC.
efgoldman
@Matt McIrvin:
Yes, but assuming the judge who issued the citation is really pissed off, he can have Arpaio arrested and thrown in the sneezer while the civil contempt citation is argued. Seems to me that civil is much more arbitrary than criminal contempt, and depends on nothing except whether the judge thinks it’s justified.
Another Scott
@Cheryl Rofer: Wikiville:
That article also talks a little about “self-pardons”, but simply says it’s unresolved.
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
Ceci n est pas mon nym
@Cheryl Rofer:
Kick the can downstream. I saw somewhere an announcement that the Pentagon will study how to implement the order, study to be completed in 2018 (March IIRC). Looks to me like they’re hoping to outlast Trump.
Also, there could be plenty of bureaucratic foot-dragging beyond that. What if they decide they need another 18 months of study? What if they come up with a plan, and it’s to be implemented gradually starting in 2021?
patrick II
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
How long to repair? Forever if McConnell comes back with a republican senate.
Mnemosyne
@Another Scott:
That makes me wonder if a state or county prosecutor in Arizona would be willing to take on Arpaio. The dude has actually had prosecutors and investigators arrested in the past, so it’s risky, but they may be pissed off enough about this to try.
DougJ
@randy khan:
Interesting
efgoldman
@Mnemosyne:
Ah, but he was still the (elected) sheriff then, and still had the (abused) legal power to have people arrested. Now he is just an old, racist crank with no power at all.
Nelle
@Nora: I really wish they would just say they did put the ban in place, but actually not do it. Would 45 ever know? Could they photoshop pictures of the whole wall in for him and find some place where it exists to let him proclaim victory?
Another Scott
@Mnemosyne: Good question. I guess we’ll see.
The ACLU says on their Twitter feed that they’re filing a lawsuit against the trans military ban on Monday. They’ve put out a statement condemning the Arpaio pardon, but no indication yet that any legal action is contemplated.
Cheers,
Scott.
efgoldman
@patrick II:
I wonder how much longer he’ll hold on. He’ll be almost 80 at the end of his current term. I know that senators often think and act like they’ll live forever, but he’s had so much shit this term, a lot of it self-inflicted and mostly thrown by someone allegedly an ally, that I wonder if he’ll pull a weeping cheetoh and just hang it up.
Another Scott
@Nelle: IIRC, there are close to 3M people involved in the Defense Department as enlisted and civilian employees and contractors. It doesn’t work to have an official employment policy that says one shall do this and that and not enforce it.
Slow-walking it until it is reversed is the best solution, and there seems to be enough wiggle-room to allow that to happen. Maybe the ACLU challenge is going to help with the “cannot enlist” part of the ban.
Cheers,
Scott.
schrodingers_cat
If anyone is surprised by T’s latest actions, they were not paying attention during the campaign.
Iowa Old Lady
@Nora: Especially when he just ordered the military to discriminate against trans people. How does that yield unity?
Fair Economist
@Gvg:
I think a “telephone game” may be in effect here. It’s the most serious hurricane *in Texas* in fifty years (since Carla ’61). It’s also possible, depending on definitions, to call it more serious than *either* Katrina (because Harvey had higher winds) or Andrew (since it will probably cause more property damage). More serious than both is very unlikely with any honest definition.
Frankensteinbeck
@efgoldman:
At this point, I think Trump’s feud with McConnell may have just saved the man-turtle hybrid’s job. I’ve heard his senators are piiiiiissed at him for how he treated them during the ACA repeal, and he lost the claim of ‘put up with me because I’m a winner.’ But they hate Trump much more.
Mike in DC
@Another Scott: I tend to agree that, the minute Trump is linked to any wrongdoing related to the matters being charged and investigated, he can’t issue pardons which would tend to protect himself from impeachment for his involvement in said acts. Even the attempt to do so wiuld strengthen the case for obstruction, abuse of power and removal from office.
BBA
@Mnemosyne: The DA in Phoenix is a hardcore Arpaio ally. I don’t know anything about Arizona’s AG but he’s a Republican too.
Lapassionara
@Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes: Yes. OTOH, I am not sure I would qualify as a True Progressive, but I cannot understand how any thinking person with a working knowledge of the current state of the Republican Party could ever pull the lever for a Republican candidate for any office.
Bill Arnold
@Another Scott:
Ah good. Wondering how to respond actively to the trans military ban order, and now will give more money to the ACLU, for starters.
(Am still sorting out how I feel about them choosing not to spend resources defending the right to organized street protests while heavily armed, FWIW. Personally non-violent by inclination.)
Frankensteinbeck
@Lapassionara:
Racists believe racism will fix everything. Even quite intelligent racists who would never use the n word and have convinced themselves it’s all about fiscal responsibility and values. The Republican Party is on their side, and Democrats are on the side of minorities. The decision is cut-and-dried, and they have no reason to regret it, only be embarrassed when they become a public joke because racism failed to fix anything. (All that proved, by the way, is that they need more racism.)
efgoldman
@Bill Arnold:
They have chosen to interpret the first amendment as not applying to intimidation with weapons. Bullets =/= speech, although I’m sure that down the road Judicial Watch or some other bozos will argue the opposite. A second amendment right is not necessarily covered by the first amendment. I believe ACLU is right, and I say that as a long time first amendment absolutist.
zhena gogolia
@Bill Arnold:
They were gratifyingly active on the travel ban. I’m not regretting setting up a monthly contribution. Lawsuits seem like our best line of defense right now.
burnspbesq
@? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?:
Correct.
I’m waiting for the post called “Everywhere I Go I Keep Hearin.”
burnspbesq
Paging Mr. schneiderman.
Mnemosyne
@BBA:
Well, a girl can hope. I was wondering how it could be that so many people have died in custody with no local or state charges, only federal.
efgoldman
@Lapassionara:
There’s your obvious mistake, right there.
trnc
@Cheryl Rofer: OK. I don’t know what the legal source is for this, but here is info on pardons of wrongful convictions. It also may be addressing pardons at the state or municipal level rather than federal, but I’d imagine the same concepts apply.
clearupmyrecord.com/pardoning-the-wrongfully-convicted.php
Here’s a governor’s pardon for a wrongful conviction, which may have been required before seeking expungement.
fox59.com/2017/03/23/wrongfully-convicted-man-pardoned-by-gov-holcomb-asks-for-record-to-be-expunged…
Not trying to be argumentative because there could be a lot of missing context. As you say, input from attorneys would be interesting.
germy
@Iowa Old Lady:
It yields unity among his base. The hateful bigots and religious fanatics.
Marguerite Hill
@Cheryl Rofer: Many moons ago, my immediate supervisor was classic textbook case of ODD, Oppositional Defiant Disorder. At that time, she had long passed the age of childhood diagnosis with its accompanying therapy/counseling/intervention, so my coworkers and I had to work around her (unacknowledged, unaddressed, untreated) illness. If we absolutely needed to do Task A, a sacrificial lamb would email or hard copy memo to her stating that under no circumstances should we consider Task A. Worked like a charm. Unfortunately, that person (often I put my head in the noose, figuratively) would be in the doghouse for weeks: catty remarks, passive aggressive putdowns, mountain punishment for molehill behavior, etc. Once my cohorts and I identified her pet angel, her “Ivanka” we cozied up to her and got her to do our dirty work. Like taking candy from a sleeping baby. But the stress took its toll and employees wouldn’t stay long in that harsh climate, and who can blame them? Trump reminds me so much of her, and not in a good way.
glory b
@Fair Economist: During Katrina, most of the damage wasn’t caused by the hurricane. Hence, the title of the documentary, “When the Levees Broke.”
The first tragedy of the disaster was that the government didn’t maintain the levees properly. The natural disaster was survivable, the levees failing wasn’t.
trnc
@Amir Khalid:
“I have to thank the president of the United States,” Arpaio said in a telephone interview. “I feel vindicated.”
Which is really funny since the DOJ page on pardons specifically says:
“A pardon is not a sign of vindication and does not connote or establish innocence.”
It also says, “For that reason, when considering the merits of a pardon petition, pardon officials take into account the petitioner’s acceptance of responsibility, remorse, and atonement for the offense.” I suspect that DT would have been less likely to pardon if JA had shown any remorse at all.
SFBayAreaGal
Hi everyone, with all,that happened yesterday this may have been over looked by many of us.
Remember Bella, and her rescuer Dalai Rasta(Scott)? They could use some help right now….
Unfortunately, everything hasn’t been well. Bella had her first phenobarbital level taken on July 27. Her vet slightly reduced her dose because Bella was close to a toxic level; unfortunately, she had a seizure the following Saturday morning, so she had to go back to the original dosage. Bella’s behaving normally now and hasn’t had another seizure, but I’m still very concerned about her health going forward.
In other news, my father had to go to the hospital on July 28; his white blood cell count was very low, and he contracted a respiratory infection. He was diagnosed with streptococcal bronchitis and congestive heart failure. The hospital treated him for almost a week, then sent him home on August 3 and, to me, it all felt a bit precipitous. He’s been improving, but he’s still got a bad cough…
===========
Here is the link for my father’s GoFundMe campaign: gofundme.com/eugene-p-carter-chemotherapy-fund
He was able to resume chemotherapy, and his time in the hospital has proved to be something of a positive, since his medications have been adjusted for his current condition. It’s also just nice to spend a bit of time out of the house with him on the days I can accompany him for his treatments.
Bella is doing fairly well, though I am rather troubled that we weren’t able to reduce her dosage. The cats have been introduced to laser pointers, and our two torties are big fans of the red dot. I’m adding a few pictures of Bella and Dobby playing with my father on the night he came home from the hospital.
I’m not on any social media other than this blog, so even if you can’t donate, it would be a mitzvah for you to post the GoFundMe link on Facebook et al. Positive pings also encouraged!
raven
@glory b: “The Great Deluge” is a very good book about Katrina.
Another Scott
@SFBayAreaGal: Thanks for the reminder.
As Captain Mnemo said (IIRC?), it’s a crime that people in the USA have to have fundraisers for medical care. :-(
Donated.
Cheers,
Scott.
Mnemosyne
@glory b:
That’s often the case. When we had the Northridge earthquake here in Los Angeles, most of the people who died were killed by bad architectural decisions (like under-building parking garages that weren’t properly braced and collapsed sideways under the forces involved).
satby
@SFBayAreaGal: I intended to donate and life and a missing wallet got in the way. After I cancelled my debit card, of course I found my wallet. So thanks for this reminder, I can share it on FB and that way can remember to donate when my replacement card gets here.
d58826
@Mnemosyne: Karma is a bit*h
pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/blogs/compass-points/2017/08/15/white-house-repeals-directive…
Mnemosyne
@Another Scott:
‘Twarn’t me, but I agree with whoever said it. ?
Davebo
Fitting that Harvey hits on the 27th anniversary of the death of the great Stevie Ray Vaughn.
Texas Flood
Karen
If Trump fires Mueller, what happens next?
WaterGirl
@efgoldman:
Me, too.
d58826
@WaterGirl: @efgoldman:
I agree. My first inclination was to the absolutist position but on thinking about it I changed my mind. When you show up a a political event in full battle gear your intention is to intimidate not debate. And second it makes the job of the cops that much harder when they have no idea who is friend or foe. I wonder if the C.ville cops held back for fear that the armed militia’s would start shooting. After all why bring all those firearms if you don’t plan on using them. Isn’t that the standard line in every western ever made ‘don’t draw your gun unless you plan on using it’?
Sister Golden Bear
@Iowa Old Lady: Well, we’re not actually people, so we don’t count. It’s only the Talibapists who count, and kicking trans people definitely unites them.
d58826
Maybe this was what helped the ACLU to decide to change it’s position
nytimes.com/2017/08/25/us/charlottesville-protest-police.html?_r=0
Ruckus
@d58826:
This ain’t the old west any more. It was barely the old west over a hundred years ago and many/most towns/cities didn’t allow open carry then. I’m conflicted about gun ownership but I’m not conflicted at all about open carry. It isn’t free speech, it’s intimidation, it’s very dangerous and it will not increase your right to free speech. And concealed carry? Only those who are in danger of being robbed/attacked at gun point have any legit argument, and then they need extreme training. I’ve carried large sums of cash for work before and even when the security screener at SFO yelled out, “He has a bag full of cash,” (it was over $33,000) I was not worried about it. All it meant was that I couldn’t just put the bag in the overhead, I had to keep it under my feet. I’m not a huge guy, not intimidating either, and I’ve worked in some pretty dodgy areas in my life and I’ve never seen the need to carry a gun in public. I did in the navy on in port watch for 2 years, but strangely not while working in the shore patrol.
d58826
@Ruckus: yep even those old western marshals had figured out guns and booze don’t mix
Bill Arnold
@d58826:
Not disagreeing with any of this (including other similar comments). Just wondering whether I would continue to agree if groups/movements I approved of open-carried to make a statement. (Probably, but tribalism is a potent amplifier of irrationality.) Kinda like when the NRA and Reagan changed their beliefs when the Black Panthers legally open carried long guns (1967).
(reason.com, just because): When the NRA Opposed Open Carry
J R in WV
@efgoldman:
If Arpaio accepts his pardon, which I expect he is stupid enough to do, isn’t that equal to a guilty plea? Won’t that pardon/acceptance work in civil suits to allow judges to penalize him financially by awarding hundreds of current and former prisoners a few thousands of dollars each?
Could Joe Arpiao wind up bankrupt and living on Social Security? Sweet!
J R in WV
@Bill Arnold:
The ACLU has said that they will not assist “armed” demonstrators request and receive permits to gather and march. Which make me feel better about my regular monthly donation.