Hurricane Irma strengthens to Category 5, carrying maximum winds of 175 mph https://t.co/q90Ng0pim2 pic.twitter.com/S7DvFTVFcu
— CNN (@CNN) September 5, 2017
The Leeward Islands are about to get whacked hard by Irma. Puerto Rico is on deck and the Dominican Republican is in the hole.
The long range projections are still fuzzy as to where exactly Irma is going. There is a chance it ends up in the Gulf and goes through New Orleans. There is a chance it grinds all of the Florida Gulf Coast like a creep at the club. There is a chance is swings north just before running into Florida and wallops the Carolinas. There is still a lot of uncertainty.
Mainland US readers, we still have some time to get ready. Let’s use that time wisely.
Make sure you check the Florida Disaster planning list.
Make sure you have water. Make sure you have food. Make sure you have batteries. Make sure you are in a strong shelter. Make sure you have contact information for your friends and family. Make sure you check in on your neighbors and friends who need extra assistance. Make sure we take this seriously.
Open thread
? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?
Fuck, don’t let it hit New Orleans. That’s the last thing that city needs. I read somewhere that levies are still not ready for another Katrina-like event. Has this happened before? Two massive hurricanes hitting the US so close together?
Mike in NC
Well, we’re heading to the airport for a flight to Boston. Stay safe.
Another Scott
Gotta gripe about that CNN graphic. Though they’re probably using this NHC update as the source, they should be more accurate.
Hurricanes are rated based on their “maximum sustained” winds. Irma’s maximum sustained winds are 175 MPH. Gusts are higher.
That is all.
Stay safe, everyone. And remember, the worst part of the storm is often the upper-right quadrant, so don’t think you’re out of the woods if the eye is south/left of you!
Cheers,
Scott.
Betty Cracker
This is an interesting site: You can choose one of three hurricane models to plug in, and there’s a slide bar at the bottom to show the hurricane’s predicted position by date and time. If the European model proves accurate, Irma will be squatting pretty much directly over my house at about 4 PM on Monday. We’re prepped, but I’m not super worried — there’s plenty of time yet for it to turn. But it bears watching for sure!
I hope the other Betty is safe in the Lesser Antilles. Looks like she won’t get a direct hit but will be close enough to get some nasty weather. We talked to a friend in the USVI yesterday. He’s worried, with good reason.
Davebo
@Betty Cracker: I’m not seeing how to select between models.
JGabriel
via David Anderson @ Top
Damn, you’re quick. I was just coming here to post the same thing.
Anyway, for people who want to look at the pretty weather models:
NAM (US Short Range)
ECMWF (European Mid Range)
GFS (US Long Range)
(For the US models, I generally find that selecting the 850_temp_mslp_precip model and Loop All provides the best summary.)
Betty Cracker
@Davebo: Bottom right corner — NAM, ECM, GFS.
JGabriel
National Hurricane Center – Irma Cone
FlyingToaster
@Betty Cracker: I’ve been watching the ensemble models over at Weather Underground; they’re still thinking Irma’s going to turn just west of the Bahamas and barrel up the Atlantic Coast and slam into SC. It’s over warm water the entire time so there’s little chance of weakening below cat 4.
The track shows the islands getting the “weak” side (south and west), but Jeebus, that thing is a beast! It’s huge, the milibars are at 929 and dropping, which means that even the off side gets slammed. I hope it delays landfall for as long as possible — though it’d be nice if it doesn’t come up Buzzards Bay and slam into efgoldman and us Boston jackals.
schrodingers_cat
@Betty Cracker: If you see this comment, Jeff Sessions is going to make the DACA announcement at 11, can we have a thread for that? Thanks!
the Conster, la Citoyenne
Phylllis
We snagged water, charcoal, and batteries yesterday, and ordered this as well. We were only without power for most of one day during Matthew, but with the way our house is situated, it was too dark to read. I plan on snagging some canned foods later today at Dollar General.
JGabriel
That’s a really nice site. Thanks, Betty.
Amir Khalid
I can’t even imagine what you’re going through in Florida and other parts, as you contemplate the terrible damage done by Harvey and brace for Irma. I can only hope everyone in the path of the hurricane rides it out and stays safe.
@? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?:
Hurricanes happen when atmospheric conditions make them happen. Once in a while, out of sheer randomness, you’ll get two or more of them in quick succession. The superstitious used to say it meant that God was angry about something, and some of them still say such things out loud. .
Amir Khalid
@schrodingers_cat:
Sessions? If the guy looks happy as he steps up to the podium, I’d fear the worst.
schrodingers_cat
@Amir Khalid: Of course he is happy, he can goosestep on DACA recipients. Of course, its not going to be anything good.
geg6
Please be safe, all BJers in the Caribbean, the Atlantic coast and the Gulf coast! This one looks like bear and the uncertainty of where it will go is going to make a lot of people complacent. Prepare!
We are apparently getting the Harvey leftovers here. Pretty steady rain and very gloomy. But nothing like the monster it was to the south. We usually don’t get much rain from East coast hurricanes because the mountains have usually divert those storms away from the western part of the state, but TX/LA ones usually give us their leftovers.
Kathleen
I’m freaking out because my daughter, SIL, grandsons and granddog live in Tampa. Saying prayers for them and the Florida Jackal contingent.
JGabriel
@Phylllis:
That’s a 500 lumen lamp, which I’ve found to be useful for low level lighting so you can see what you’re doing, but not really bright enough to read by for an extended time. If you need a reading lamp during a power outage, I recommend something in the 800 – 1200 lumen range.
I ordered thiis Stansport 1200 lumen lantern a few days ago. It requires 6 D batteries (for about 90 – 100 hours usage), so if anyone decides to go that route, they might want to pick up a dozen or two D batteries too.
Phylllis
@JGabriel: Good to know. I’ll probably go ahead and get the one you recommend as well. Wouldn’t hurt to have two of them.
mai naem mobile
Stay safe all BJrs anywhere in the path of Irma. I read on Weather Underground that one od the most common injuries after a hurricane is a laceration on the thigh from people using electric saws to cut branches(hand gets tired so you hold the saw down before it’s off) etc. so wear some Chaps. Who knew??
FlyingToaster
@? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?: 2004, when 4 hurricanes crossed Florida (I was flying out of Ft. Myers just ahead of Francis); 2005, when we circled the alphabet — I was in Ft. Lauderdale in Feb 2006 and they were less than a quarter of the way through repairing the damage.
If the water is warm enough, and there isn’t any decent wind shear to tone them down, we get hurricanes. Nowadays we can see them coming, and prepare. Unless one is a moron, at which point. let one’s God judge one.
Big Ole Hound
Living in northern CA and putting up with smoke and fire seems preferable to waiting for a hurricane, knowing there is nothing you can do about it. Have not had an earthquake in the 25 years living here either. Heat and drought once in 20 years seems OK compared to a major hurricane too. Get out of the way folks!
Kay
@schrodingers_cat:
Smart:
Ivanka won’t be ashamed but she’ll be embarrassed in front of her fancy friends and that’s more effective. Her “adviser” in the job she isn’t qualified for came out of Goldman Sachs- that’s where she gets her “policy” agenda. I don’t think they want “attacking admirable young people” attached to their brand.
JGabriel
@Phylllis:
FYI: 800 Lumens is about the same strength as a typical 60 Watt equivalent* LED bulb. 1200 lumens is about the same strength as a 90 Watt equivalent bulb.
(Equivalent meaning equivalent to an incandescent bulb at that wattage.)
Davebo
@Betty Cracker: Duh! Thanks.
Does not look good for you.
Emma
The best thing I ever went in hock for was high impact windows. Guaranteed for up to 250 miles per hour. We got everything we needed over the weekend, plus I ordered extra batteries. I’m worried for our fence — it’s old as heck but replacing it was prohibitive. I might not have a choice after Irma.
schrodingers_cat
The entire DACA crisis is an artificially created crisis by the Rs. 10 R AGs threatened to sue the Federal Government about DACA. Living Confederate Monument refused to do his job and defend DACA, hence the “crisis”.
ETA: Sainted General and CoS Kelly, is on record saying that DACA cannot be defended in courts. I don’t whether law school is part of the General school. Let’s not forget his tenure at the DHS.
schrodingers_cat
@Kay: She is arm candy, a decorative object. She has no pull in policy matters, we have seen this time and again.
SenyorDave
In case people forgot, here is what shitgibbon’s budget did to NOAA:
President Trump’s fiscal year 2018 budget proposes a 16 percent cut for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and a 32 percent cut to the weather and climate agency’s research office. Many of the agency’s programs are targeted for termination.
Here’s a link for more detail:
http://thebridge.agu.org/2017/05/31/noaa-cut-16-president-trumps-budget-request/
Oh, to see him and his crime family in an orange jumpsuit!
Matt McIrvin
@FlyingToaster: The very few model runs I’ve seen that have it running into New England also have it weakening considerably by that point (because of the colder water up here), so we’d probably experience a fast-moving tropical storm at worst. Such a thing is still plenty worth taking seriously, though it’s nothing like what they’re facing in Florida.
Elizabelle
Have a nephew in the Florida Keys. How is it looking for him and his bride?
cmorenc
@Another Scott:
In coastal areas, by far the most people are at the most risk from the storm surge and flooding from the torrential rains (the apt analogy is “biblical” as in Noah’s flood if you’ve ever witnessed the drenching from a strong tropical cyclone) – whereas the zone within which the winds are at catastrophic and life-threatening (rather than merely expensive nuisance) strength is far smaller. WATER kills far more people, and does far more damage, than wind from most hurricanes, even strong ones – though this was admittedly cold comfort to say, the residents of Homestead, Fla in the direct path of the eyewall of Hurricane Andrew back in the 1990s, or the towns just north of Corpus Christi during Harvey.
raven
@Elizabelle: Unass that AO!
Mike in DC
I know it’s wrong to hope it hits Mar-a-Lago head on, but if it has to hit somewhere in the U.S….
Elizabelle
@raven: In English?
Central Planning
I was watching the weather channel this morning and they showed the potential path of Irma over the next few days. It looked like an erection having some sort of teenage love experiment with the dong of the US.
Then, they colored it in to make it look like some Georgia O’Keefe piece. TWC was certainly amusing this morning.
Maybe I need to get out more.
Gin & Tonic
@Elizabelle: That means to leave quickly.
wvng
So, here in WV we get the remnants of hurricanes, and they can tear us up with flooding. Silly as it may sound, I’m doing the kind of prep that David suggested yesterday, getting stuff I know we’ll need soon but maybe not immediately. I live in a little valley, above the 100 year floodplain – whatever that means these days. We have been cut off by floods destroying our egress roads more than once.
Nervous. Not Tampa nervous, but still. This thing could grind up a lot of the East coast and well inland
FlyingToaster
@Matt McIrvin: It doesn’t look like a New England track at all. The only time I saw damage was Hurricane Bob, and then I was in a Somerville rental tenement. The storm window on my bedroom blew off.. That house is now about 125 years old, but the owner gut-rehabbed it in the late 90s. A modern building (my Watertown house, built in 2001) with vinyl-clad windows isn’t going to have many problems.
We worry more about Noreasters these days; rainfall, wind, and storm surge mean we’re dealing with flooding, downed trees over powerlines, roads and T tracks, and all the non-backyard-boats smashed.
Elizabelle
@Gin & Tonic: Oh dear. Thank you.
Nephew’s in the Coast Guard, so he gets his first big blow.
dr. bloor
@Amir Khalid:
In America, we call those people “thought leaders.”
Matt McIrvin
@FlyingToaster: Yeah, I think the New England probability is pretty much gone at this point. Early on, there were people comparing it to the legendary 1938 New England hurricane.
I’ve seen a couple of tropical storms that brought branches down in the neighborhood and caused long power outages over in NH; nothing worse than that–as you say, the northeasters, blizzards and ice storms are worse.
Miss Bianca
@Big Ole Hound: Adam S. assured me he’d rather be waiting out a hurricane than a tornado.
Betty
@Betty Cracker: Hi Betty, So far we are still projected to get only tropical storm effects. We sit between latitudes 15 and 16 and between longitudes 60-62. It is projected to pass this way between latitudes17 and 18 – a little too close for comfort. You never know about hurricanes though so we are preparing for the worst. Weather has started to deteriorate over the past hour. We have a safe place to stay but dread what the aftermath would be like. Prayers and best wishes are being sent to those further north as there seems no way they can avoid a massive disaster.
Elizabelle
@Betty: Best wishes to you, Betty in the Antilles. Plz keep us posted on your situation. Photos, even.
BroD
I just looked at the Atlantic/Gulf Infrared satellite images: yeah, Irma is the baddest at the moment but there’s a pack of menacing low pressure systems to keep an eye on. Can you say, “Oh sh*t!”? If not, you’ll probably get a lot of practice in the next week or so.
martian
@Elizabelle: I think your nephew or at least his family should get out before they’re ordered out. Is he essential personnel and unable to go? Evacuation traffic will be insane, and the situation in the Keys could get very, very ugly. Nobody should have to ride out a Cat 5, though I’m afraid a lot of people will have no choice about that shortly.
Matt McIrvin
@Miss Bianca: I’ve seen people on Wunderground compare this thing to a giant tornado–the sustained winds in the eyewall are comparable to a very destructive tornado, which is just mind-boggling.
debbie
@the Conster, la Citoyenne:
That is frightening. I hope Earth adjusts better than humans seem to be able to.
catclub
@JGabriel: I use a climbers headlamp for reading in a darkish corner of my house.
Spanky
From this morning’s NHC Discussion on Irma (# 26, I believe):
And the first advisory is up for TS Jose, which is stalking Irma.
If you’re in the Antilles, hang on tight!
Elizabelle
@martian: Have learned bride and pets are evacuating to Orlando. Have questions in about whether nephew is on duty.
Their house is solidly built and reinforced. Fingers crossed for them.
Betty Cracker
@FlyingToaster: Hey, we were practically neighbors! I lived in Marblehead during Hurricane Bob. The day before it hit, I walked down to the harbor and watched them frantically yanking boats out of the water with a crane. That was a nasty one!
Betty Cracker
@Betty: Glad you are okay! Stay safe!
martian
@Elizabelle: I’ll cross my fingers and toes for them, too, and hope things are somehow less bad than they look. This damn storm, I’m hesitant to even wish Irma goes one way or another. Whichever way it goes, someone – a whole lot of someones – will be in a world of hurt.
Ajabu
Just talked to friends in St. Croix. Said they’re getting winds but don’t seem too concerned.
I have to remember, when we lived there we’d have stateside friends call us in a panic every time a hurricane appeared to be in the Caribbean but we’d just get some rain & wind, watch it go by and head straight for the gulf coast. Rarely a problem for us. Then again, once in a while, there’s a Hugo.
geg6
@Miss Bianca:
I agree. Seen both up close and at least you can prepare for a hurricane. There’s no knowing when a tornado will hit and even if you know it’s coming, you have only seconds to hatch your escape plan.
FlyingToaster
@Betty Cracker: My SIL (and husband and 5 boys) live in Marblehead. It’s not nearly as much fun as it sounds to ride out storms up there. The marinas should just have cranes built in at this point.
Bob was the one where David Ropeik was on Channel Five, screaming “there’s KELP in the streets of Reeveah*!”
I had gone into work (Kendall Square, the Athenenum) early, and at 10 the Cambridge FD came through and told us they were shutting all of the 1st Street and Land Boulevard buildings and to get our asses on the T before it flooded.
* Revere, MA. The seawalls in Revere and Lynn (Lynn, Lynn, City of Sin) get overtopped during bad storms, and the causeway to Nahant disappears. King Tides run water over the cobbles at Boston’s Long Wharf. But no, there’s no such thing as climate change.
d58826
Well you can bet Der Fuhrer will worry about this hurricane since Mar-a-Lago is in the cross hairs.
JGabriel
@catclub:
Yep, I bought one of those too, a while back, specifically for that purpose. Interestingly, though, I found I use it even more often for when I’m working on upgrading/building computers, fixing my phone jack, and other hardware maintenance/trouble-shooting.
catatonia
Don’t bother looking at the NAM. It’s not a very good long-range model and it’s not very good with tropical systems.
Two big issues:
1. The strength and depth of the trough of low pressure (at the 500 MB level) will be luge in determining where Irma’s worst may affect the CONUS.
2. The path Irma takes through the Greater Antilles. If it moves over Hispanola and/or eastern Cuba, a lot of mountains there that would knock it down a peg or two on the Saffir-Simpson so that if Irma does affect the SEUS down the line, it might not be quite the powerful monster it is now. OTOH, if Irma threads the needle and the circulation stays offshore, that makes the threat to Florida and EC even greater.
JGabriel
Matt McIrvin:
It’s starting to look that way, yes, but I don’t think we’ll be able to conclude that with confidence until the 8th or 9th.
In any event, I’m still doing basic hurricane prep. Even if Irma doesn’t come up the seaboard to NYC and New England, there’s still almost three months left in hurricane season.
JGabriel
@catatonia:
My impression has been that the NAM is pretty good once you get within 2-3 days, at which point it’s usually better than the GFS. Of course, for the 4-7 day period, ECMWF is probably the best model right now.
JGabriel
@Elizabelle:
Seconded. Be safe, Betty.
elspi
Sorry, but when I read “Florida Disaster planning list.” I assumed it be something about how to turn a riding lawnmower into a hovercraft, or how to us an AK47 as a can opener. The actually link is much more boring.
d58826
There is no justice in this world. Der Fuhrer takes credit for the good economy and now he will get the credit for the good response to Harvey. A response that was only possible because of the work done during the Obama admin.
MSNBC has an article that I can’t link to for some reason
Skepticat
@Betty Cracker: During Bob, I left my office in Salem and walked over behind the Barnacle just as a wave broke mostly *over* and around the building and soaked me. I heard that the wave took out all the Barnacle’s windows, so the bartender looked at those gathered for a hurricane party and calmly said, “Last call.”
I’m safe in Maine at the moment, but I’m trying to be cheerful in the face of the prospect of losing my home on a tiny island in the Abacos, Bahamas. I have my fingers, toes, legs, eyes, and wires crossed that we don’t have a devastating hit.
leeleeFL
@? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?: see 2004, Charley, Frances, Ivan, Jeanne, all hit Florida…..yeah they can bunch up some seasons.
catatonia
@JGabriel:
Dr. Masters at Weather Underground has a good down and dirty on what models best handle hurricanes:
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/models.asp
Moreover, the NHC itself says that the NAM should not be used for hurricane forecasting (slide 18):
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/outreach/presentations/NHC2017_TrackForecasting.pdf
But you’re right about the EC; it’s still considered the best overall global model, though the GFS has closed the gap in recent years. Frex, the Euro picked up on the left turn of Sandy before anything else did. I’ve read that part of the reason is that the “initialization” of the Euro — the quality of the data capturing initial conditions put into the Euro is more comprehensive than that put into the GFS.