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Peak wingnut was a lie.

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I see no possible difficulties whatsoever with this fool-proof plan.

You are here: Home / Politics / America / Thoughts on the President’s Remarks to the UN General Assembly

Thoughts on the President’s Remarks to the UN General Assembly

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I originally did this as a comment to BettyC’s post, but decided I wanted to elevate it to the front page, make a tweak or two, and add a couple of additional points.

The President’s remarks today are clearly a Stephen Miller authored speech. With the exception of the Rocket Man quip. It is Miller channeling all of his own naive, arrested development sense of entitlement, paranoia, pettiness, grievances, anger, rage, and woeful ignorance of foreign and national security policy and strategy, the global system and how it works, and any state and society other than the US. It is also Miller channeling the President’s naive sense of entitlement, paranoia, pettiness, grievances, anger, rage, and woeful ignorance of foreign and national security policy and strategy, the global system and how it works, and any state and society other than the US. The ego fluffing bits about how great things are in the US under the President are Miller making sure his boss’s ego is stroked.

This would have been bad enough and inappropriate at a campaign rally, it is even worse at the UN General Assembly. Threatening to abrogate the P5+1 agreement with Iran is only going to make dealing with the DPRK worse. What Kim really wants is an assurance that the US will 1) not remove him and 2) will negotiate with him in good faith over whatever it is that Kim wants other than reassurance he won’t be removed. The threat to abrogate the agreement with Iran makes that virtually impossible. Moreover, it makes it almost virtually impossible to negotiate anything with any other state or supranational entity as no one will now believe that the US will live up to its commitments under the current administration and president. The President holds a mistaken belief that every agreement the US has entered into that he has not negotiated are bad for the US; should never have been entered into; and as a result should be abrogated. This just happens to be every single one as he and his administration haven’t negotiated any agreements since taking office in January. It demonstrates how little he and Miller understand how any of this works. If I was the governors of Alaska, Louisiana, and Arkansas I would be very worried that their states are going to be handed back to Russia and France respectively. Governor Abbot should also begin learning how to ask President Nieto for things once we give Texas back to Mexico as well. As should Governor Ducey of Arizona and Governor Martinez of New Mexico.

Kori Schake, who has held appointments at the Department of Defense, the National Security Council, and the Department of State, and is currently at the Hoover Institution at Stanford has written an excellent essay explaining just what total destruction means in light of the President’s remarks regarding the DPRK.

President Trump took the exact opposite course in his speech today. Moreover, before the entire world, he threatened the destruction of an entire country. Not only does that draw a red line that will be difficult to walk back from; it is also a much less credible and ethical threat than a pledge to more narrowly target the Kim regime. Waging war against people already enslaved by an authoritarian government punishes them unjustly—that would have been an easy point score in front of a UN audience.

While I highly recommend the whole essay, I want to focus on this portion. When campaign plans are developed there are a list of action words that the planners and those pulled into the operational planning teams (OPTs) use. Total destruction is not one of them. What the President is potentially calling for here is the complete reduction of the DPRK. Reduction of an enemy is a tactical term (Chapter 6, paragraph 18):

The reduction of an encircled enemy force continues without interruption, using the maximum concentration of forces and fires, until the encircled enemy force’s complete destruction or surrender.

There is no way to totally destroy (reduce) the DPRK as a state without destroying the DPRK as a society. This means destroying the North Koreans who make up the DPRK as both state and society. Total destruction doesn’t refer to a strategic strike to decapitate the leadership of the government and the military. Nor was it qualified as a strategic strike to solely and specifically reduce the DPRK’s nuclear weapons and missile programs, as well as its offensive military capabilities that could be directed at its neighbors. It was a warning that the President of the United States has considered and is willing to authorize the DPRK’s “complete destruction or surrender”. Given that it is unlikely that Kim would surrender… And none of this seems to account for the damage and destruction to the Republic of Korea, Japan, Guam, and the tremendous loss of life that war on the Korean peninsula would engender.

This speech is a good example of the limits of the abilities of the reasonable advisors and staffers to constrain and contain the President, his worst impulses, and the worst impulses of his advisors such as Miller. I think it is highly likely that there was originally a draft speech prepared and vetted through the Interagency with inputs from Secretaries Mattis and Tillerson, LTG McMaster, Ambassador Haley, Gary Cohn, and others which was then handed to Stephen Miller by the President with instructions to MAGA it up. And MAGA it up he did. Eventually the bad reviews will filter up to the President’s attention, whether tonight when he’s back in the residence this evening on his own watching cable TV or tomorrow morning when he’s watching Morning Joe. At that point expect the usual tweetstorm.

Reader Interactions

286Comments

  1. 1.

    SiubhanDuinne

    This:

    It is Miller channeling all of his own naive, arrested development sense of entitlement, paranoia, pettiness, grievances, anger, rage, and woeful ignorance of foreign and national security policy and strategy, the global system and how it works, and any state and society other than the US. It is also Miller channeling the President’s naive sense of entitlement, paranoia, pettiness, grievances, anger, rage, and woeful ignorance of foreign and national security policy and strategy, the global system and how it works, and any state and society other than the US.

    This is poetry.

    P.S. L’Shana Tovah, Adam, and all who celebrate another year in the Tree of Life.

  2. 2.

    TenguPhule

    The reduction of an encircled enemy force continues without interruption, using the maximum concentration of forces and fires, until the encircled enemy force’s complete destruction or surrender.

    What could possibly go wrong?

  3. 3.

    msdc

    If I was the governors of Alaska, Louisiana, and Arkansas I would be very worried that their states are going to be handed back to Russia and France respectively.

    Well, I mean, Russia, obviously.

    I hear the president of France threw Trump a nice parade, so maybe he’s got a shot too.

  4. 4.

    efgoldman

    Eventually the bad reviews will filter up to the President’s attention

    Will Velveeta Voldemort, any of his close advisors (whoever they are) or the mouth breathing flying monkeys, care?

  6. 6.

    TenguPhule

    @efgoldman:

    Will Velveeta Voldemort, any of his close advisors (whoever they are) or the mouth breathing flying monkeys, care?

    Yes. If only to spite the people who oppose him.

  11. 11.

    TenguPhule

    This means destroying the North Koreans who make up the DPRK as both state and society.

    Donald Trump: “I fail to see the problem here.”

  15. 15.

    ? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?

    woeful ignorance of foreign and national security policy and strategy, the global system and how it works, and any state and society other than the US.

    And not even the US, which is incredible for a 71 year old man who’s lived his entire life in this country. There are undocumented immigrants who understand how American society and government work better than this worthless waste of space.

    There is no way to totally destroy (reduce) the DPRK as a state without destroying the DPRK as a society. This means destroying the North Koreans who make up the DPRK as both state and society. Total destruction doesn’t refer to a strategic strike to decapitate the leadership of the government and the military. Nor was it qualified as a strategic strike to solely and specifically reduce the DPRK’s nuclear weapons and missile programs, as well as its offensive military capabilities that could be directed at its neighbors. It was a warning that the President of the United States has considered and is willing to authorize the DPRK’s “complete destruction or surrender”. Given that it is unlikely that Kim would surrender… And none of this seems to account for the damage and destruction to the Republic of Korea, Japan, Guam, and the tremendous loss of life that war on the Korean peninsula would engender.

    So in other words, genocide. Lovely.

    I really hope the rest of the Iran agreement signatories ignore the US if the Trump admin ever tries to declare Iran out of compliance. The question is, would the Trump admin do anything in retaliation?

  16. 16.

    TenguPhule

    @Baud:

    So what you’re saying is that Hillary would have been worse.

    You couldn’t ask for a worse warmonger then Hillary. She was really bad at it.

  17. 17.

    Roger Moore

    I think it is highly likely that there was originally a draft speech prepared and vetted through the Interagency with inputs from Secretaries Mattis and Tillerson, LTG McMaster, Ambassador Haley, Gary Cohn, and others which was then handed to Stephen Miller by the President with instructions to MAGA it up.

    This is one reason I’m not so eager to press people like Mattis, McMaster, and even Haley and Tillerson to resign. It’s hard to imagine, but the Trump administration would be even worse without some steadying influences like them.

  18. 18.

    Butthurt Jordan Trombone (fka XTPD)

    (*takes long toke of joint*) ackshually, Clinton totally would’ve threatened to turn North Korea into a parking lot, and otherwise generally risk sparking a three-way genocide in Northeast Asia

    and also(*another spliff please*)direct war with russia

  19. 19.

    CarolDuhart2

    One thing I’m actually thankful for tonight is the the U.S military is actually worn down from Iraq and Afghanistan. It would take too much for a war with North Korea at this point. And nobody is going to volunteer to go fight it either. Unlike Iraq, which could be sold as retaliation for 9-11, there’s no patriotic or rational reason to go to war with North Korea-indeed, nobody could even create and sell a reason to go.

  21. 21.

    Roger Moore

    @efgoldman:

    Will Velveeta Voldemort, any of his close advisors (whoever they are) or the mouth breathing flying monkeys, care?

    If he hears it on one of the cable shows he watches, like Morning Joe or Fox and Friends, I think it would. It’s one of the few ways of getting through his bubble.

  22. 22.

    ? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?

    @Roger Moore:
    So bad that even the GOP would have to jettison him? I mean the US becoming even more of an international joke than it currently is, growing even further internally unstable, isn’t good for business. The Party of Free Markets should know that much.

  25. 25.

    TenguPhule

    @CarolDuhart2:

    there’s no patriotic or rational reason to go to war with North Korea-indeed, nobody could even create and sell a reason to go.

    GOP Propaganda & Lazy Media: Hold our Beer.

  28. 28.

    Cheryl Rofer

    @CarolDuhart2: Sadly, I can see a scenario in which Trump orders massive bombing attacks, perhaps with nukes. That won’t be enough – air power never is – but at some point he will run out of bombs or infantry or some component and have to stop. The job won’t be done.

    And what happens then to the North Korean nuclear materials and bombs? This is one of the things China worries about.

  31. 31.

    SiubhanDuinne

    @Adam L Silverman:

    The very idea of “security at the synagogue” makes me kind of sad. But I understand it’s a necessity. Be safe tomorrow, all who celebrate the new year.

    I live not too far from the Marcus Jewish Community Center (named after, and founded by, Bernie Marcus, one of the cofounders of Atlanta-based The Home Depot). Some years ago, the MJCC introduced armed guards, locked gates, and other security measures. You’re a little kid who wants to take a swimming lesson, and you’re vetted like an Al Qaeda second in command. Heartbreaking that this is now the norm.

  34. 34.

    Another Scott

    The President holds a mistaken belief that every agreement the US has entered into that he has not negotiated are bad for the US; should never have been entered into; and as a result should be abrogated.

    He’s such an idiot.

    His picture of a “good deal” is him getting paid and getting to put his name in big letters at the top of some ugly building in return for little or no investment himself. Iran buying $16.6B in jets from Boeing doesn’t matter; the Iran deal is bad because they didn’t give the USA 5 square miles in downtown Teheran for TrumpWorld, and 10% off the top on their oil sales for the privilege of being “fair” to Trump.

    He’s pathetic, and a danger to the USA and the world.

    Grr…

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  40. 40.

    Baud

    Via Kevin Drum, Trump is sorry

    :

    [email protected]_Erdogan tells @JudyWoodruff Trump called him abt incident in DC this summer to say he was sorry + wanted to “follow up on this issue.” pic.twitter.com/CoVXYFamDV

    — PBS NewsHour (@NewsHour) September 19, 2017

  45. 45.

    Roger Moore

    @Another Scott:

    His picture of a “good deal” is him getting paid and getting to put his name in big letters at the top of some ugly building in return for little or no investment himself.

    His idea of a good deal is us winning and them losing. He is a complete zero sum thinker. If other countries are doing well, it must be at our expense. The idea of a win-win deal is completely beyond his ken.

  46. 46.

    Baud

    @Roger Moore: Right. We’re in a four year period where it’s an Irma and Maria every day and we just have to try to save as many people as we can until we have a chance to rebuild.

  50. 50.

    Major Major Major Major

    @Cheryl Rofer:

    That won’t be enough – air power never is – but at some point he will run out of bombs or infantry or some component and have to stop.

    pff, don’t be ridiculous, it’s not like North Korea has the world’s largest standing army or something

  51. 51.

    TenguPhule

    @Roger Moore:

    I don’t find that at all hard to believe.

    I want to disagree with you on this. But I can’t.

    Shreds of American dignity, come back to us!

  55. 55.

    Betty Cracker

    @SiubhanDuinne: I was just going to ask Adam if synagogue security is a recent development. One of the most sickening accounts of the Charlottesville mess I read was about how the torch-bearing mob passed a synagogue and chanted their Nazi garbage, prompting the congregants to leave via a back door. Astounding and horrifying that this is happening in 2017.

  56. 56.

    TenguPhule

    @Betty Cracker:

    I was just going to ask Adam if synagogue security is a recent development.

    Didn’t they already step up security due to that insane Israeli teen calling in bomb threats?

  57. 57.

    patrick II

    I know nothing about the sophisticated use of terms of trade like “totally destroy” but I think Trump doesn’t either. When I hear a threat to “totally destroy” a country. I think nuclear weapons.

  59. 59.

    Ocotillo

    But it sounded so good in the bar last night when he was holding court with the other drunks…………

  63. 63.

    Another Scott

    @Cheryl Rofer: I assume that he thought that the ~$100M in cruise missiles that rained down on that airfield in Syria was going to turn the course of the war and he’d get to declare victory. When Assad was using it the next day, maybe just maybe that convinced the hawks around him that maybe just maybe things aren’t so easy when it comes to war.

    But then there was those “too clever by half” comments by Mattis that we discussed earlier… :-/

    I dunno.

    We do have a very competent military with amazingly destructive weapons. But when people are fighting for their country’s survival, they’re not going to let a few million tons of bombs defeat them…

    :-/

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  64. 64.

    TenguPhule

    For some reason, threatening a man who had his own half-brother assassinated with chemical weapons doesn’t strike me as a sound idea.

  65. 65.

    Feebog

    So Dolt45 orders a massive strike on NK. What’s to stop Kim from lobbing a few nukes at Seoul and/or Tokyo?

  66. 66.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Betty Cracker: It is and it isn’t. There have always been ushers at every synagogue or temple I’ve ever been in who sort of function as security. And I’ve never seen a major event, whether a service for a holiday or a bar/bat mitzvah or wedding or a social or educational event, where the synagogue doesn’t hire off duty, but in uniform local law enforcement to be on site. I’ve done a number of security consults for synagogues. Most of those dealt with protection through environmental design. Basically how to harden the target through physical structure. I’m published on this:
    https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/palgrave.sj.8350024

    (That pub grew out of an inservice I taught at Disney University back in 2004)

    I know a number of synagogues now have adjusted some of their ushers into additional security/security enablers. Given that when one of the synagogues in St. Louis, a Reform temple, provided sanctuary for the protestors the following started:
    http://www.newsweek.com/gas-synagogue-trending-twitter-trumps-america-anti-semitism-goes-viral-667753

    The World Jewish Congress (WJC) thanked Twitter on Monday for blocking the hashtag #GasTheSynagogue from trending after users urged police to gas St. Louis protesters who were sheltering inside a synagogue after the unrest following the Jason Stockley verdict.

    Twitter would not confirm taking action, but the WJC, a nonpartisan organization that represents and advocates on behalf of Jewish communities and organizations in more than 100 countries—said the social media giant blocked the hashtag within 24 hours of its request.

    The hashtag began trending on Friday, after the Central Reform Congregation in St. Louis offered refuge to protesters demonstrating against the “not guilty” verdict for Stockley, a white police officer who fatally shot Anthony Lamar Smith, a black man, in 2011. After tear gas and rubber bullets were reportedly used against demonstrators outside, the synagogue opened its doors to about 250 protesters. St. Louis Metropolitan Police officers reportedly threatened the protesters inside with tear gas.

    More at the link.

  69. 69.

    GregB

    I hate to be so grim, but in some ways I think Trump is going to deliver on some if his mad man promises.

    Wall Street should enjoy their good returns snd the flag waving jingoists should get their waves in because Trump is going to make them pay their moral tab one way or another.

  74. 74.

    kindness

    I wasn’t as impressed with what Schake wrote as others I guess. She defended Trump’s actions far too many times with comments like Trump’s action is better than doing nothing. She excused his abominable ‘negotiating’ skills. What really upset me was the comments under the article, in The Atlantic no less. I expect that level of red foaming at the mouth at less cultured locales, but then again, no one I regularly read is over there any more. What ever. Trump was Trump. Belligerent & bellicose. Everyone is now convinced he’s a braying ass.

  77. 77.

    Baud

    @japa21: When I’m reminded of all the bullshit, I’m less surprised that Trump is president.

    I get sad sometimes over how much time we have wasted over ridiculous things when we should have been focused on fighting these guys.

  78. 78.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Manyakitty: If I’m in town – as in not assigned somewhere else – I help out as a favor to the folks at Congregation Beth Shalom in Clearwater where my mom is a member. Which synagogue in Tampa? We belonged to Rodeph Shalom when I was growing up.

  79. 79.

    But her emails!!

    @Cheryl Rofer:

    You’re probably correct in that there is no smoking gun. I just don’t believe the Chinese entrepreneur who was allegedly bartering sugar, cellphones and weapons components for coal was doing so completely without the knowledge of Chinese officials.

  85. 85.

    the Conster

    test test test. New computer and email addy for the BJ filter. PRO TIP: don’t spill a whole glass of wine on a computer keyboard.

  88. 88.

    TenguPhule

    @Baud:

    I get sad sometimes over how much time we have wasted over ridiculous things when we should have been focused on fighting these guys.

    Congress or BP?

  89. 89.

    Eric S.

    Adam at top.

    I understand whay your saying with “total reduction.” I can fathom that much of the world hears what you are saying. I really and truly question whether Trump and his advisors understand this. Not McMaster, but those a Trump really listens to. For them I think it’s just how they think a tough president should talk. It doesn’t make them any less dangerous – maybe the complete opposite – but I think they are so incompetent that they don’t know what they are saying.

  90. 90.

    TenguPhule

    @Adam L Silverman:

    I’m ready for DC to reboot the timeline and the multiverse and wipe out 2017.

    I’m stick of all these Crisises already.

    Its been done to death already. Make it stop!

  94. 94.

    SiubhanDuinne

    @Adam L Silverman:

    One of my closest friends from USF (a nice Irish Catholic girl) was music director at Rodeph Shalom for a few years during the ’70s. Not sure how that would have coincided with your time.

  95. 95.

    debbie

    @Betty Cracker:

    I know there’s been security at my local temple, on and off, over the past couple decades. More on than off these days. There have always been off-duty cops to direct traffic, probably due to the numerous lousy drivers.

  96. 96.

    Jeffro

    Equally important, although not as riveting: Trumpov declaring that the US is no longer going to stress a whole lot about how other countries run themselves, and so democracy, meh, whatever.

    Keeping in mind that this was said at the U. freakin’. N. With the whole world watching/listening. And all of them knowing that the president* of the United States is in Putin’s pocket.

    I know Tillerson put this out there a couple months ago, but it’s still like a bucket of cold water. America’s no longer in the business of promoting democracy or human rights. Wow-o-wow.

  97. 97.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Eric S.: I’m not so worried about LTG McMaster, Secretary Mattis, Gen. (ret) Kelly, and Gen. Dunford the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. I’m worried about how the DPRK civilian and military leadership, the PRC civilian and military leadership, the Russian civilian and military leadership, and several other state’s civilian and military leadership interpret it.

  98. 98.

    Corner Stone

    And the same to the other Jewish Juicers.

    “Oh, my. What is going on with oranges these days? I can barely get half a glass out of these. And the prices they charge? It’s a shonda, a shonda I’m telling you!”

  104. 104.

    Jeffro

    @Adam L Silverman: It has to pull the DPRK’s leadership even closer to Kim; has to make China feel like they’re got multiple openings here; has to make Russia wonder why they can’t just get the Magnitsky Act sanctions lifted and go on with the business of subverting democracy…oh wait, this actually helps them do that.

    So. much. winning.

  106. 106.

    SiubhanDuinne

    @Betty Cracker:

    That was indeed sickening and scary, but I think it’s been going on for some years, at least in selected locations. I mentioned the Marcus JCC in suburban Atlanta. When it first opened it was unfenced, unlocked, totally welcoming. I don’t recall now whether their move to upgraded and visible security happened in response to a specific threat or attack, or whether it was because of a more general existential threat. Either way, it was awfully sad to drive by and see it turned into Fortress JCC.

  109. 109.

    SiubhanDuinne

    @Adam L Silverman:

    How cool! Her name was Mary Jane Matheny; at the time she would have been studying for her Master’s in Vocal Performance at USF. She also had a gig as choral director at an Episcopal church in either St Pete or Clearwater during that same time. Ecumenism in action.

  111. 111.

    Corner Stone

    @Cheryl Rofer:

    I doubt they’ve helped directly with the nuclear weapons though.

    Do you mean the actual nuclear technology or any aspect such as missile technology? Because isn’t it clear that a lot of the missile hardware came from China?

  115. 115.

    MomSense

    I haven’t watched trump’s speech yet. I have to psych myself up for that. The few snippets I’ve seen were dreadful.

  122. 122.

    Adam L Silverman

    @? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?: I don’t want to turn this into a superhero comic books or other comic books thread. So just quickly: it will depend on what you’re interested in. If you’re interested in superheroes you’ve got DC, Marvel, and a bunch of independents. With the exception of the New 52 DC reboot, which was supposed to make a lot of continuity redundant, but seems to have just pissed off a lot of folks and is now being undone with Rebirth, you’ve got a number of starting points with DC. And a lot of them can be had in omnibus collections or as electronic purchases if you’d rather do it that way. Similar with Marvel, but I’d stay away from their big crossover events like Civil War I and II and the most recent Secret Whatchamacallit We’ve Made Captain America a NAZI, but not really, sort of, maybe, we promise we’ll fix it… Shoot me an email and I’ll provide some recommendations of where I’d start.

  126. 126.

    GregB

    @Adam L Silverman:

    It will be sweet to see the firm hammer of justice brought down upon the sunken head of Roger Stone

    One the most vile rat-fuckers on the planet.

    In related news,Alex Jones’ estranged wife is starting a website to expose his vile behavior.

    May that finally cause his cheese fully slip off his soggy cracker.

  128. 128.

    Manyakitty

    @Adam L Silverman: I’m waiting to hear back from my dad with the name. Sadly, I stopped paying attention when they moved to Florida. Not sure I’ve even attended services there. Hmmm

  131. 131.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Steve in the ATL: It is more than that. Even a non-nuclear war on the Korean peninsula is going to be a meat grinder. It can’t be done by SOF alone. And even if we had a much larger Conventional Army and Marine Corps than we currently have it would still be a meat grinder. It is one of the worst places, terrain wise, to wage war.

  138. 138.

    schrodingers_cat

    Jung ka rang sunehra samjha
    lekin bad me gehra samjha,
    Jung ka rang tha kala re

    I thought the color of war was golden
    But it was deeper than that
    The color of war was black

    From Black Friday, Anurag Kashyap’s cinematic masterpiece on the March 1993 serial bombings in Mumbai. I was there when it happened. In the western suburbs and I had go to south Mumbai as these events were unfolding. I also had to take a flight the very next day to Madurai.

    This number is the internal monologue of one the bombers who was on the run abandoned by the mastermind, questioning what he had done and why. What was remarkable about the movie is that it tried to understand the motivation of all the players in the drama, the foot soldiers who carried out the attacks, the planners, the mastermind and the underworld boss who provides the men, contacts and cash and the police piecing together the pieces of the puzzle. The movie has stayed with me two days after watching it. Its still available on NetFlix catch it if you can.

    Full song here. Warning: It has some disturbing footage of the various attacks Mumbai has suffered.

  140. 140.

    Gin & Tonic

    @Adam L Silverman: I’m more interested in the reports that they’re looking at Paulie all the way back to 2006. For those who don’t recall, that was the year that the fragile post-Orange Revolution coalition in Ukraine imploded, and in the parliamentary elections, Viktor Yanukovych’s Party of Regions (Manafort’s client) prevailed. After some months of parliamentary maneuverings, Yanukovych became PM in August. This was a stunning comeback for someone who was so widely reviled a mere two years before.

  142. 142.

    Jeffro

    @Steve in the ATL: @Adam L Silverman: @Major Major Major Major:

    The North Koreans have no reason not to launch everything they have – including nukes – at the first sign of bombardment, invasion, or other major attack. Seoul will get reduced to rubble, and all of our ‘tripwire’ soldiers will be gone, and we’ll retaliate. There won’t be a ground war of any kind on the Korean peninsula if this all goes to heck. No way no how. Just tens of millions dead.

  146. 146.

    MJS

    If Trump has any actual “rational advisors” now would probably be a really good time for them to, as a group, approach Republican members of Congress and inform them that the President is unfit to serve, and that if Congress doesn’t act on that information, they will next go to the media, and let the world know the president is not fit to serve and Congress doesn’t care. There is a nut job with nuclear weapons in North Korea, and the president stood in front of the world and dared him to use them. What will it take for the alleged competent and rational advisors to recognize the danger this president poses?

  147. 147.

    Shana

    @SiubhanDuinne: Thank you Dear. I made my brisket today, got a challah too. Tomorrow I make my Apple Bundt Cake with Caramel Sauce, pick out a nice red wine from our stash and make green beans and latkes.

  148. 148.

    Elizabelle

    @MomSense:

    I haven’t watched trump’s speech yet. I have to psych myself up for that.

    Do you have to watch Trump’s speech? Can you do anything about it?

    Maybe better to do something more rewarding with your time. Like more of your marvelous letters. Or Korra and son time.

    I plead ignorance, but I am so happy with my no Trump visuals diet. Don’t read much on him either; get the gist here.

  149. 149.

    Butthurt Jordan Trombone (fka XTPD)

    @? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?: The DCAU (and MCAU!) is actually how I got into comics. For DC, the early ’60s/’70s to early ’90s is a generally good intro for most titles (although Pérez’ seminal run on Wonder Woman is in the mid-’80s). For Marvel, you can read Spider-Man more or less from the beginning up to the early ’90s; X-Men only really gets going with the aforementioned Wein/Cockrum reboot, and just starts coming into its own under Claremont’s run in the ’80s. You should just skip anything by Rob Liefeld and probably 1994-2000 in general; if memory serves only Batman & some of the X-Titles (including the main one) were even halfway decent.

  152. 152.

    Major Major Major Major

    @Elizabelle:

    @MomSense: Do you have to watch Trump’s speech? Can you do anything about it?

    Maybe better to do something more rewarding with your time. Like more of your marvelous letters. Or Korra and son time.

    Or scrubbing grout, or counting the letters in the dictionary, just spitballing

  155. 155.

    schrodingers_cat

    What the Rs are doing with ACA, DACA, climate change etc is like an arsonist throwing matches inside the house they live. The objects of their hatred may go first but Rs have to remember that they live in the same house.

  156. 156.

    Another Scott

    Donald J. Trump‏ Verified account @realDonaldTrump

    A great and important day at the United Nations.Met with leaders of many nations who agree with much (or all) of what I stated in my speech!

    7:31 PM – 19 Sep 2017

    Winning!!11!!!ONE

    :-/

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  158. 158.

    Elizabelle

    @Major Major Major Major:
    @Omnes Omnibus:

    Yeah, really. Here, we have a rebroadcast of Ken Burns’ documentary on Vietnam.

    Last night’s included disturbing footage of the Buddhist monks self-immolating, and a still of the body in the street after the first one. Shocking, and sad.

    But more rewarding than spending any time on Trump and his band of grifters and miscreants.

  159. 159.

    MJS

    @Major Major Major Major: I think we need more than one. And it would be nice if they could get around to it before the first nuke is launched. If it’s not too much trouble.

    My comment to my family the day after the election was, “Every day we’re not in a nuclear war has to be considered a good day.” Looks like we’re coming to the end of those good days.

  160. 160.

    Elizabelle

    @schrodingers_cat: I think Rs assume they live in the house up the hill. Seriously.

    They’ve got their healthcare, pensions, retirement, wingnut welfare opportunities. It is so sad.

  161. 161.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Elizabelle: I am waiting until I have time to watch all of the Burns VN doc in one go. IOW, the next cold, rainy weekend.

    ETA: I am sorry that I do not live up to Raven’s standards.*

    *He took a shot at me on this topic last night when I wasn’t around, so turnabout is fair play.

  167. 167.

    Another Scott

    @Major Major Major Major: Donnie knows what’s really important.

    Donald J. Trump ‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump

    I was saddened to see how bad the ratings were on the Emmys last night – the worst ever. Smartest people of them all are the “DEPLORABLES.”

    7:41 PM – 19 Sep 2017

    HRC is inside his orange head, stomping around, figuring out which walls to rip out…

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  170. 170.

    MomSense

    Guess I made a good choice to listen to music and wind skeins of yarn into cakes. I just couldn’t handle trump’s idiotic BS today.

  173. 173.

    jl

    I remember Trump was prancing around during the campaign bragging about what a practical problem solver he would be. Trump said, What would be wrong with sitting down and talking with North Korea if that would solve the problems? Trump told us that he is not a sad loser, like the previous president, who can’t work a great deal.

    Now he can’t think of anything to do about them other than blow them up and commit genocide.

    What stupid, toxic, fool. Absolutely nothing inside this guy’s head. Makes Dub look like a super genius.

  181. 181.

    Sab

    @GregB: Re Alex Jones:So why the phuck did she marry him or stay married to Him?

    I am not interested in her sad story. He has always been who he is.

  187. 187.

    Elizabelle

    @schrodingers_cat: I know. They haven’t thought that far ahead, or assume they’ll be dead.

    Cretins. A whole Republican Congress auditioning to be looked back at as John C. Calhouns, Roger B. Taneys, Joseph McCarthys. I have to hope history will not be kind to them, and hope history won’t be scoffing “both sides.”

    PS: trying to remember who was that ridiculous Southern Congressman, or Senator, maybe from the 1920s or something … total throwback. Not thinking on Huey Long, think name begins with a B and sounds kind of bilious …

  190. 190.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @schrodingers_cat: I have an aunt who knits and crochets. She donates baby hats to a local hospital (apparently babies come with hats), and she made me a brain hat for my birthday last month. I have now exhausted my knitting knowledge.

  191. 191.

    GregB

    @Sab:

    I am not interested in her story per se, but I am interested in her slagging and dragging that sausage headed snake oil salesman.

    I hope she hits him hard.

    Monsters like him and Breitbart and Bannon and Limbaugh and O’Reilly have been poisoning soft heads for years and now we are here.

    Their bill is coming due and one by one they are paying it.

    Roger Ailes died before he could feted as a master mind and instead was cast out as a perv. O’Reilly is on his way down and I assume Stone is about to get it. Jones deserves misery for just what he did to that pizza joint alone, never mind years of sowing hatred.

  194. 194.

    MomSense

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    The yarn comes in big loops kind of like a coiled garden hose. You can’t knit the skein that way because it will end up all knotted and tangled. You can either wind it into a ball but those have a habit of rolling away and under furniture. I put the loop on a swift which is an expandable wooden structure that spins. You put one end of the yarn on a ball winder and turn it until you have a round cake shaped object that lets you pull the yarn out from the center.

  196. 196.

    Ladyraxterinok

    Only one conclusion is possible from reading this– Trump and those who voted for him and stiil support him are totally and willfully stupid and blind and focused only on ME, ME, ME.

  198. 198.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    thread seems open…. Tucker Carlson discovers Wicca, and a group of witches in LA that is casting spells on trump

    Brandon Wall‏Verified account Walldo
    Tucker is exploring witchcraft. “Is this legal? Can you run around casting spells on people? Is there any kind of federal regulation?”

    and he’s not doing it for the money, he’s got a trust fund big enough to sink his yacht, he just needs to be on TeeVee

  200. 200.

    NorthLeft12

    @ Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) :
    I really

    hope the rest of the Iran agreement signatories ignore the US.

    I think you can pretty much count on that. I am not sure what Deadbeat Donald and his pack of insane sycophants thought would happen when the US pulls out, but I do not see the EU, China, or Russia going along with this. Other countries that are non-signatories [not named Israel or Saudi Arabia] will be very unlikely to follow the US either. Canada has been negotiating with Iran to return to full diplomatic relations, and I don’t see that whatever the US does under Trump will change that.

  201. 201.

    Elizabelle

    Here he is. Popped “horrible Southern Senators” into Google, and after popping out Tom Cotton and some current creeps, we have:

    Theodore Bilbo was Democratic Senator from Mississippi from 1935-1947, and was infamous for his orations against African Americans, and was simply an embarrassment to the Senate he served in.

    Yup. I was pretty sure he was a Democrat, too, given the racial animus. Sadly.

    Some progressive’s list of horrible senators; Robert Byrd makes the list — and I would not place him on my list, because he learned and grew and did some good work — but the others are pretty much race-baiting Democrats from generations past and more contemporary Republicans.

  202. 202.

    jl

    @Omnes Omnibus: Search ‘Theodore Bilbo’ on youtube and you get some interesting hits.
    I think he was inspiration for, extremely softened and detoxified, characters of the distinguished Senator Claghorn and Senator Snort.

  204. 204.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: Oddly, Sunday was the 325th anniversary of my 10th great-grandmother being convicted of witchcraft in Salem. She lived because she was pregnant, and they wouldn’t hang her until the child was born. By the time that happened, the crazy was over.

  205. 205.

    randy khan

    I kind of want to push back a bit on Schake’s take, in the sense that I don’t know that Trump will consider his words today to constrain his future actions in any way. He’s just as likely to do nothing at all or to take a sliver of a fake concession from the North Koreans as proof that his terrible threat worked as to make good on the threat. Attributing any kind of permanency to his positions on any issue is a mistake.

    That’s not to say that the North Koreans will take that view – it’s their country that he’s threatening to destroy, after all. And I think, in practice, other countries will treat this as a statement that’s hard to walk back. But Trump, who knows nothing at all about foreign policy and has no smart, experienced advisors to listen to (as if he would), won’t see it that way at all.

  206. 206.

    Sab

    @Omnes Omnibus: I doubt you will be able to watch in one go. It’s VERY informative but also very intense. I am of an age where people I love were caught up in the maelstrom, and I cannot watch it dispassionately. I have relatives and close friends who lived through it and were severely damaged by it. All through it I see points where I see we could have turned aside and didn’t. And I’m not Vietnamese.

    Also, I used to feel sorry for LBJ for inheriting this mess. No longer. He did great stuff with civil rights, but he lied to us every step of the way in Vietnam. He completely understood what he was doing, and what he was risking, and he chose to do it anyway for short term political gain. Yeah his general mostly lied to him, but with a more open process he would have realized this. He was the one who chose this process.

    So yes, I agree with Raven, phuck LBJ.

    I never thought I would say that.

  211. 211.

    Elizabelle

    @jl: Will look at that more later; didn’t have sound on. Liked the dog.

    Was he a character in a series of movies?

    @Omnes Omnibus: That’s fascinating. Wonder how whatever relative traced that lineage reacted to that knowledge.

    So your family has had “familiars” for some generations now, eh?

  212. 212.

    FlyingToaster

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    apparently babies come with hats

    No, babies are supplied with hats; the hospital puts on a gender-specified one, and most baby suits come with hats. We had to tell people to quit giving us pink hats because WarriorBabyGirl was not really a pastel person.

    Once they can pull them off themselves, they can go hatless.

  213. 213.

    James Powell

    @randy khan:

    That’s not to say that the North Koreans will take that view – it’s their country that he’s threatening to destroy, after all.

    Kinda curious to know what the South Koreans think of all this, since any effort to destroy North will almost certainly result in the destruction of the South.

  214. 214.

    ArchTeryx

    Right now just trying to wind down after reading the Rude Pundit’s candid assessment of our situation:

    We’re riding the short bus to Armageddon. And there are no stops ahead.

  215. 215.

    Another Scott

    @NorthLeft12: I don’t know the details, but apparently the US can cause a world of hurt via the world-wide banking system if we don’t want some country doing business with the world. So, even if the rest of the world keeps the Iran deal, the US probably could cause lots of problems via the dollar and the banking system.

    E.g.:

    Some 250 foreign central banks and governments keep $3.3 trillion of their assets at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, about half of the world’s official dollar reserves, using a service advertised in a 2015 slide presentation as “safe and confidential.”

    The Bank for International Settlements, other major central banks and some commercial banks offer similar services, and clients usually have more than just one account. But only the Fed offers direct access to U.S. debt markets and to the world’s reserve currency, the dollar, making the U.S. central bank the top provider of this so-called custodial banking business.

    In all, the people interviewed by Reuters identified seven instances in the last 15 years in which the accounts gave U.S. authorities insights into the actions of foreign counterparts or market movements, at times leading to a specific U.S. response. (Graphic: tmsnrt.rs/2tDxp7V)

    In one relatively recent case, data from these foreign accounts offered U.S. authorities a sense of the mood in Moscow in March 2014, after Russia’s invasion of Crimea prompted the United States to respond with economic sanctions.

    When foreign holdings at the New York Fed plunged about $115 billion, U.S. officials confirmed what others could only suspect, according to two former Fed officials: Russia’s central bank had pulled its funds.

    While the Kremlin’s public response was defiant, Fed and Treasury officials concluded Moscow feared the United States would freeze Russia’s assets even though the account was not included in the narrow scope of the sanctions, according to one former official.

    I think Trump is mainly just bluffing with Iran. But he loves Bibi, and Bibi knows how to flatter Donnie, and there’s (apparently) such a visceral hatred by Bibi of Iran; and so many people around Donnie and in the GOP have wanted war with Iran since 1979; etc.; that one can’t count on Donnie not doing something stupid.

    Look at what’s been happening about the Paris Accord. Donnie wants to panic everyone else in to giving him some big “victory” so that the USA doesn’t “pull out”. But it’s all his stupid blustering “negotiating” stuff. Macron said today that there would be no renegotiation.

    Similarly, look at NAFTA.

    Trump’s making it clear to just about everyone that he’s a paper tiger and his words don’t mean anything. But he and his administration is so chaotic that they’re saying contradictory things continuously, so even that knowledge that he’s always lying isn’t helpful…

    :-/

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  217. 217.

    Adam L Silverman

    @James Powell: Here you go:
    http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/south-korea-trumps-north-korea-rhetoric-shows-resolve-49965451

    South Korea seemed to play down the latest hot rhetoric aimed at North Korea by President Donald Trump, calling his words a signal of Washington’s strong resolve to deal with the North’s march to nuclear weapons mastery but essentially a repetition of a basic U.S. policy.

    A South Korean presidential official told Yonhap news agency that Trump’s comments are mostly a repetition of a basic stance that all options will be considered when confronting North Korea

    Park Soo-hyun, a spokesman of South Korean President Moon Jae-in, said the amount of time Trump spent on North Korea in his speech shows how seriously Washington takes the issue.

    Trump’s comments “reaffirmed the need to put maximum sanctions and pressure against North Korea’s nuclear and missile provocations,” so that Pyongyang realizes denuclearization is the only way forward for the future, Park said.

    Japan welcomed a reference by Trump in his speech to North Korea’s abduction of Japanese in the 1970s and 1980s.

    A Japanese official told reporters at the U.N. that Trump’s speech reflects a “deeper understanding” in the United States about the issue, according to Kyodo News service.

  219. 219.

    Sab

    @Omnes Omnibus: You are much younger than me so maybe. I hope so. I lived through that era so watching it completely enrages me. I have in laws and friends with severe PTSD 50 years later, and I still do not have a reasonable explanation about why they were sent.

    All the explanations seem to be about short term domestic political concerns.

    The US gave up its moral leadership in the early 1960s pursuing some sort of neocolonialist goals (in anti-comunist) and we’ve been racing down that rabbit hole ever since.

    Trump is icing on the cake, but this is not a new path for us.

    I am so angry about the position of US soldiers, sailors, marines and also diplomats and and other officials [email protected]Omnes Omnibus: Brave, but you will fail. It’s also very long.

  222. 222.

    Hellbastard

    Feels like we’re one step closer to the Fortress: AMerica scenario where the rest of the world says enough is enough and gangs up to attack us (except Canada, of course).

  223. 223.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Elizabelle: The convicted are all rather famous. The particular one is Abigail Faulkner whose father was a minister, Francis Dane, who opposed the trials. To his credit, his opposition preceded his daughter’s peril. I have a number of ancestors involved in the good and bad sides of the Salem stuff. I also have an ancestor who was hanged as a witch near Hartford, CT, in 1662. To the best of my knowledge, no one in my ancestry had a cat named Pyewacket,

  224. 224.

    Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes

    Sad. I drew a 24 hr twitter timeout.

    Dunno if it was for calling God a cunt, Roy Moore a psycho, or FRC a bunch of klukker assholes. It is a worthless platform.

  225. 225.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Sab: I was at the 1968 Democratic Convention protests. I had turned four earlier that month. My parents couldn’t afford a babysitter, so I went.

  231. 231.

    clay

    @? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?: If you’re interested at all in Marvel, I’d strongly recommend their Marvel Universe app. For a surprisingly reasonable monthly fee, it grants access to some 20,000 comics from their library — from 1939 up to six months ago.

    It doesn’t have everything, but it has most of the major titles complete, and it fills in gaps every week. And it has all new issues, six months after they’re released in print.

    They often will give out codes to try the first month discounted or free, so try it out, and you can sample a bunch of different things, and see what appeals to you.

  232. 232.

    Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    Kinda. I’ve been known to

    – Ask the court for its contempt fine rate and asked for a measured amount of it so I could say my piece

    – Deliberately interrupt opposing counsel merely to disrupt and argument or question, and keep on doing it. Had one woman so flummoxed last week that she turned to me and stomped her foot, demanding my silence while she talked. With an angelic expression, I smiled, looked at the judge, looked at her and said “talk to him, not me. I’m talking to him; you should, too”, and pointed at him for effect. It was glorious – she was trembling with rage and offered a deal too good to pass up just so as to avoid 5 hours of listening to my shit.

  243. 243.

    Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes

    @Corner Stone:

    I actually apologized to her this morning in the courthouse. It was insincere, but I was crushing on her a bit and wanted to feign human empathy. A friend of mine was there, he said that she was still steamed after I left, which means that she must like me (if this was a rom-com).

  245. 245.

    Another Scott

    ObOpenThread – BooMan makes a good point at WaMo:

    A few things have happened in recent weeks that have revived the Republicans’ interest in giving repeal another go. One is that Trump started talking aggressively about turning to the Democrats to make deals since the Republicans clearly cannot deliver on their own. Another is brutal polling data. Gallup has approval of Congress at somewhere between 16 percent and 18 percent in August and September among Republican voters. It was at 50 percent among Republicans in February. For context, Democratic voters give Congress a 14 percent approval number. Probably more importantly, a quick glance at the generic congressional preference polling shows that the GOP’s position has deteriorated badly since the failure in early August to repeal Obamacare. Before August, the Dems’ advantage ranged roughly between two and six percent, with only a couple of more disturbing outliers. Since the failed vote on Obamacare, however, the range is more like six to nine percent. The RealClearPolitics rolling average is actually at 9.2 percent at the moment, which is high enough to predict a wave election that could cost the Republicans control of the House of Representatives. A third recent development is that the Senate parliamentarian clarified that the Republicans must repeal Obamacare by September 30th or give up trying. That’s because their special budget reconciliation instructions will expire at the end of the fiscal year.

    In combination, the Republicans gained a new sense of urgency. At the very, very least, they weren’t willing to ignore the displeasure of their base and let the deadline come and go without giving it one more try. They feel like they have no cover from the president and they know and can see that he’s lost faith in them. As they began to digest the magnitude of their failure and the likely consequences, the urge to pass something, no matter how horrible and foolhardy started to grow irresistible.

    The sweet, sweet Koch millions have to be an incentive, but the collapsing polling data may tell them that they have to do something – no matter how horrible.

    Dunno if the things he lays later out are the most likely outcome, though. E.g. Ryan said today that if the Senate passes G-C then the House will too, but we know that the House is even more dysfunctional than the Senate. And if the House really can pass it, won’t that make the Senate nervous again just as in the BCRA(P) version?

    The governors’ letter today may help, or it might not. If the Teabagger Senators only care about the polling data among their base, then it would seem that no persuasion will matter.

    Who knows. :-/

    We have to keep fighting them.

    ‘night all. Sleep well. Back to the barricades in the morning!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  246. 246.

    Le Comte de Monte Cristo, fka Edmund Dantes

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    Viciously polite has its very own mechanism and charm. I’ve seen it done – it takes expertise that not all can pull off well (I struggle with dealing with it – my style is all prick, and I have to really ramp up to throw a lawyer like you off the game). Done wrong, it is as transparent as Glad Wrap. Done right, it results in confusion.

    Kudos!

  247. 247.

    mouse tolliver

    Props to Jimmy Kimmel for his thorough evisceration of Bill Cassidy. He didn’t mince words, and he took an unambiguous political stand. Called Cassidy out for lying to him while trying to get good publicity. Outlined all the ways his bill will completely fuck people over. And he urged people to take action to stop Cassidy/Graham’s sneak attack on the health care system. Even pointed out that other countries do it better than we do.

    This is how it should be done. Some celebrities get way too much credit for empty gestures even though they’re too cowardly to call people to action.

  248. 248.

    Corner Stone

    @Felonius Monk: Negroponte was full of shit. I hated his guts for sitting there lying and sitting beside Col Jack Jacobs. Who I have issues with (Jack) but he does his thing pretty straight. Negroponte is garbage.

  249. 249.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Elizabelle: Thank you, but I suspect that if most people try and were able to trace their heritage, they would find interesting things. Without going into massive details, someone i know can’t go past her great-greats because her family was in Poland/Ukraine/Russia and Jewish. Records are gone. Her ancestors who found a home in Central America in the early ’30s were lucky; they were the only ones in their family who lived.

  250. 250.

    Cheryl Rofer

    @Corner Stone: The base missile technology started from SCUDs, which were developed by the Soviet Union and shared generously. It looks like North Korea has made many improvements.

    The idea that North Korea has had help from somewhere else in their nuclear weapons programs (that includes the missiles) is very persistent, but I see little to no evidence for it. David Sanger, at the New York Times, has been writing some very unreliable stories in this vein. I think that it’s easy to believe that a little isolated country like North Korea couldn’t develop nukes on its own, but what the United States had in the 1940s and 1950s in the way of computing and materials knowledge wasn’t much better.

  251. 251.

    Corner Stone

    @dww44: The +/- 10:30PM CT block with Joyce Vance (former US Atty) and Kim Atkins (who I am not usually a fan of).
    Joyce brought it, Brian asked more excellent questions and Joyce gave him his responses. That was a good segment, IMO.

  253. 253.

    Cheryl Rofer

    @Gin & Tonic:

    Didn’t the Norks get most of their tech from A.Q. Khan?

    It’s possible they got their centrifuge designs and a basic atom bomb design from him. We don’t know for sure, and they seem to have gone beyond the bomb design he is said to have provided.

  258. 258.

    fuckwit

    I think we have just joined the rest of the world.

    Pakistan and India have had nukes pointed to each other for decades, and their rhetoric is so belligerent you’d think they were about to wipe each other off of the face of the planet. They’re not. It’s just them being assholes to each other. People I’ve known from both countries just laugh at the stupid shit their governments say and do, and just ignore them.

    North Korea has been threatening the destruction of South Korea and Japan for decades too. People there are just used to it too, apparently.

    I think this is the new global norm. Lots of insane saber-rattling rhetoric by corrupt governments who owe their power to hate. And their people go on with their lives and don’t pay any attention to the idiot things their governments do.

    We Americans (and Europeans too) actually believe our own bullshit. Most people don’t believe theirs, or ours.

  260. 260.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Another Scott: The real question is whether the polling drop off was because the GOP failed to repeal and replace the ACA or because everyone in the country got a good look at what replace was going to be and at the Senatorial GOP majority recognizing how bad it was and trying to ram it through anyway. If it is solely the former then, perhaps, one more try might help improve their numbers and prospects. If the latter, then doing Cassidy-Graham is only going to make things worse. Especially if they’re successful.

  262. 262.

    Another Scott

    @Cheryl Rofer: You’ve probably already seen this, but for the rest of us. TheBulletin interview with Siegfried Hecker (former director of Los Alamos) (from September 7):

    BAS: Does the time interval between this nuclear test and North Korea’s last nuclear test tell us anything about technological progress they may be making?

    SH: North Korea has been very methodical and deliberate about nuclear testing. The fact that it conducted six tests over such an extended period, beginning in October 2006, gave its nuclear scientists a chance to learn a lot between tests. I believe North Korea learned much more from its tests than did India or Pakistan, which conducted almost all of their six respective tests over a short time period with little chance to learn from one to the next. However, there was another reason for the slow, deliberate pace: North Korea lacked sufficient fissile materials, either plutonium or highly enriched uranium, until quite recently. The regime must also have weighed the likelihood of adverse actions from China, but as this last test shows, it was determined to proceed regardless of Chinese and international reaction.

    BAS: The news coverage sometimes implies that Kim Jong-un, who took power in 2011 after his father and grandfather before him, is especially impatient and determined to develop a threatening nuclear arsenal. Do you see it that way?

    SH: Not necessarily. North Korea has been making deliberate, steady progress on nuclear and missile advances since at least 2009, when all serious dialogue with Pyongyang ended. Progress, particularly on the missile front, has accelerated since Kim Jong-un took the reins at the end of 2011, but the foundations for the nuclear and missile programs were already built. It does appear that Kim Jong-un has brought a more effective, hands-on management style to move the programs forward.

    BAS: In photos the KCNA released last weekend, one of the men alongside Kim Jong-un appears to be Ri Hong-sop, head of North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons Institute. A Reuters news report, which identifies Ri in an earlier photo, says you met with him during your visits to Yongbyon. Is that so, and what can you tell us about him?

    SH: Dr. Ri Hong-sop was director of the Yongbyon Nuclear Research Center during my first visit in January 2004. I was impressed with his technical competency as well as his honest and direct answers to my technical questions during the tour, in which he gave our Stanford team remarkable access to the Yongbyon plutonium facilities. In a fascinating exchange about the intricacies of plutonium metallurgy, he even allowed me to hold a sample of recently produced plutonium—in a sealed glass jar—to convince me it really was plutonium.

    BAS: Was that the only time you met with Ri?

    SH: No, we met during several of my seven visits to North Korea, although by the fourth visit in 2007, he was no longer director of the Yongbyon Nuclear Center. I was told he had moved to Pyongyang to advise the General Department of Atomic Energy. When I asked about him during my last visit in November 2010, my host told me somewhat sarcastically that my government wouldn’t let me meet him because the latest UN sanctions had put him on a blacklist. Much of what we know about the North Korean nuclear complex comes from discussions we had with technical professionals in Yongbyon. So much for the benefits of sanctions: They didn’t slow down the North’s progress on its nuclear program, but eliminated one of the few windows we had into it.

    BAS: An official KCNA statement quoted Kim Jong-un as saying, “all components of the H-bomb were homemade … thus enabling the country to produce powerful nuclear weapons as many as it wants.” You have previously said that North Korea has only limited inventories of fissile materials, the fuel required for bomb making. Do you still consider that to be the case? How many bombs could it make now?

    SH: North Korea cannot produce “as many as it wants,” although it is making progress on both fusion and fission fuels. It appears to have produced lithium deuteride, which can be used to produce the tritium fuel for hydrogen bombs, but likely has only small inventories of tritium for boosted fission devices. And it still has relatively small inventories of fissile materials for the fission bombs that are required to trigger the fusion device.

    Although they do involve great uncertainty, I believe my previous estimates still hold: By the end of 2016, North Korea had enough bomb fuel—roughly 20 to 40 kilograms of plutonium and 200 to 450 kilograms of highly enriched uranium—to make 20 to 25 nuclear weapons, with an annual production capacity of six to seven bombs’ worth. If they continue to test and develop more sophisticated hydrogen bombs that could use less fissile material, we’ll have to revise that upwards. However, I don’t concur with the leaked intelligence estimate that they have up to 60 nuclear weapons now.

    FWIW.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  265. 265.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Corner Stone:

    We bought Germans.

    Paying for quality engineering first time out is always worth it. Japanese or Swiss engineering would have been worth it too.

  266. 266.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Manyakitty: Shoot me an email offline with their names. I’m sure they know my mom. Me they’ll know from sight. I’m the guy with no neck on the high holidays standing in front of the sanctuary doors, glowering at people, and looking like I’m there to collect that week’s vig.

  270. 270.

    seaboogie

    Adam – you keep referring to “the President”, when in fact I believe you are referring to DJT. In every vid I’ve ever seen of him, he seems to be doing a DJT version of “acting” like how thinks a president should, but I remain unconvinced.

    After the UN speech, I can only assume that the UN attendees hope that Kelly stays on the job, military commanders question any and all orders from the CIC, and that (and I love this moniker) Bobby Three Sticks brings forth actionable charges ASAP.

  272. 272.

    Adam L Silverman

    @seaboogie: He is the de jure President. Until such time as he isn’t. He’s managed to make it impossible for him to also be the de facto President – as in he’s got very little popular legitimacy and support. And I respect the office of the presidency even when I’m in serious disagreement with the person holding that office.

  275. 275.

    seaboogie

    @Adam L Silverman: That is an interesting and instructive distinction that I appreciate, and will keep in mind, especially when I see him moving about like the weird un-love child of Lurch and Frankenstein’s monster. Can’t bear to listen to him anymore, so I’m relying on body-lingo in order to preserve some distance and perspective.

  276. 276.

    Another Scott

    @Omnes Omnibus: Guy was big-wig at Los Alamos. Visited DPRK many times. Shared anecdotes. Seems to agree with Cheryl that most of their nuclear advances are home-grown. Progress is just a matter of time and nuclear fuel. The way to slow their progress is via political agreements, not sanctions or threats.

    Seems sensible to me.

    HTH.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  279. 279.

    Mart

    @Roger Moore: Channel flipping stopped by Fox News “The Five” for about a minute tonight. They thought he really brought it to those punks at the UN. Maybe his best Presidenting to date. Really is strange how powerfully Fox’s crazy takes convince 40% of the country that this guy is normal. The morning buffoons will lavish him with praise.

  280. 280.

    prostratedragon

    Some don’t care for Kaufman’s translation of The Art of War, but I value it for a number of gems like this:

    “The successful warlord does not put someone in charge of the warehouse if that person only cares about negotiating.”

  282. 282.

    Cheryl Rofer

    @Another Scott: Yes, that is a good interview with Sig. And we agree pretty much down the line in our analyses of the North Korean situation, although we have done them separately. I’ve heard his presentations since he’s been making them in Los Alamos, which is since he’s been going to North Korea. Also, (Adam L Silverman), I worked with his staff when he was director and got my start in nonproliferation then, although some of my earlier projects gave me the basis for that. I spent an hour with him a couple of weeks ago. I am working on a project that he is helping with. We are almost neighbors.

    @Omnes Omnibus: tl;dr is that North Korea has real nuclear weapons and probably did most of their development themselves. The number of nuclear-tipped missiles that they have ready to go is probably fewer than many analyses suggest, probably less than 10. But they will have them eventually. I think the interview Another Scott quoted may not contain them, but Sig has enunciated three “Nos” we should aim for with North Korea: 1) No new weapons; 2) No better weapons; and 3) No transfer of nuclear technology or weapons. I saw someone else quoting the three “Nos” the other day without attributing them to Sig, which is a good sign that they are being accepted, at least among those who are looking for a solution to the situation and not war.

  283. 283.

    schrodingers_cat

    @fuckwit: I call bullshit on your India Pakistan example. Please show me an example where either the Indian or Pakistani heads of government have called the other childish names and swore to annihilate the other. T is another level of dysfunction.

  285. 285.

    J R in WV

    @Adam L Silverman:

    …war on the Korean peninsula is going to be a meat grinder. … It is one of the worst places, terrain wise, to wage war.

    So, then, a lot like Iran, then? Mountainous redoubts and scattered guerrilla forces well trained and supplied, and totally supported by local residents. Sounds like which other countries where we have fought and not won. Vietnam, and the stans?

  286. 286.

    J R in WV

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    So which is it, he never heard of the First Amendment in the Bill of Rights, OR Tucker doesn’t realize that Wicca is a real actual religion, as close to real as Christianity or whatever?? Or maybe both?

    What an ignorant dork.

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