Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Republicans don’t want a speaker to lead them; they want a hostage.

The poor and middle-class pay taxes, the rich pay accountants, the wealthy pay politicians.

Americans barely caring about Afghanistan is so last month.

Fuck these fucking interesting times.

Never entrust democracy to any process that requires republicans to act in good faith.

I’d like to think you all would remain faithful to me if i ever tried to have some of you killed.

Nancy smash is sick of your bullshit.

The words do not have to be perfect.

Let’s not be the monsters we hate.

Schmidt just says fuck it, opens a tea shop.

“Everybody’s entitled to be an idiot.”

A snarling mass of vitriolic jackals

Putting aside our relentless self-interest because the moral imperative is crystal clear.

Bark louder, little dog.

Do not shrug your shoulders and accept the normalization of untruths.

I really should read my own blog.

Despite his magical powers, I don’t think Trump is thinking this through, to be honest.

Motto for the House: Flip 5 and lose none.

Republicans are the party of chaos and catastrophe.

I’m pretty sure there’s only one Jack Smith.

fuckem (in honor of the late great efgoldman)

That’s my take and I am available for criticism at this time.

They traffic in fear. it is their only currency. if we are fearful, they are winning.

Sadly, there is no cure for stupid.

You are here: Home / Open Threads / What’s going on in Saudi Arabia?

What’s going on in Saudi Arabia?

by | 176 Comments

This post is in: 

1. Kushner traveled to Saudi Arabia last week — probably to consult the Orb.

2. Earlier today, Trump’s weird tweet:

3. Later today, Saudi officials cleared the Riyadh Ritz-Carlton, then arrested a bunch of princes (including Alwaleed bin Talal, an actual billionaire who has been critical of Trump) and is holding them at the Ritz.

Anyone got a clue to spare?

ETA: And now this:

WTF?

Reader Interactions

176Comments

  10. 10.

    Starfish

    I read some tweets saying that there was a failed coup in Saudi Arabia. I don’t have any more details though.

  12. 12.

    Yutsano

    @Starfish: That night explain the round up, but even so nothing is making sense right now.

    And Yemen just took a pot shot at Riyadh. Something very weird is afoot.

  16. 16.

    Villago Delenda Est

    Crown Prince is purging those he fears will interfere with his absolute rule. This is an internal reshuffling of corrupt assholes, basically. The Bandit House of Saud has been corrupt for centuries. The only thing that IS new about it is that it took over the Holy Cities about a century ago, before they were under Ottoman rule.

  17. 17.

    Adam L Silverman

    This appears to be an attempt by the 32 year old crown prince to consolidate power. His father is ill and he’s trying to eliminate as many powerful rivals from within the royal family, especially among the princes descended from the Sudairi Seven as possible. Think of it as coup proofing. Especially given that King Salman replaced the head of the Saudi National Guard a couple of hours before the arrests. The Saudi National Guard are basically the descendants of Ibn Saud’s desert brothers, the Ikhwan, who were early, fanatical adopters of Abdul Wahhab’s teachings of tawheed (the radical unity of the Deity). They are really the only effective military/paramilitary force in the Kingdom and are sort of a cross between a praetorian guard, a special force, and the retainers of the Saudi royal family.

    The outstanding questions is going to be who else Crown Prince Muhammed bin Salman had arrested, how many other of his fellow princes and their retainers he’s seeking to arrest, and whether the other princes band together against the 32 year old crown prince. There really is no US analogy, but imagine if Jared fired all the other senior White House staff replacing them with people loyal to him, had the entire cabinet and the Vice President arrested, and replaced the heads of each military Service with people loyal to him.

    I want to know what Prince Bandar is going to do. And where he is…

  18. 18.

    p.a.

    I can’t imagine the Saudis doing anything controversial at tRump’s prompting: what’s he gonna do, start supporting Iran and its surrogates? They have to know he’s a moran and paper billionaire too. Probably domestic and dynastic issues. But all the above is from a knowledge base of pretty much 0. Is it irresponsible to speculate…?

    Will be asleep when Adam weighs in with some fact based analysis.

    ETA: well I’m not asleep yet! Maybe Bandar is in Kennebunkport

  19. 19.

    Adam L Silverman

    For those wondering what the Sudairi Seven is, here’s a link:
    https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/saudi-arabias-royal-overhaul-signals-riyadhs-assertive-foreign-policy/article24178168/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com&

    Saudi King Salman wasted little time in making a dramatic change to the line of succession in the House of Saud, and it may all be because of his grandmother, a reportedly beautiful and influential woman named Hassa bint Ahmad al-Sudairi.

    Born in 1900, Ms. al-Sudairi is reported to have married Abdulaziz bin Saud (or Ibn Saud), the future founder of the kingdom of Saudi Arabia, twice – the first time in 1913 when she was a very young woman. Their marriage was apparently part of unifying tribes in the central Nejd district of the Arabian Peninsula. After subsequently marrying Abdulaziz’s half-brother, Ms. al-Sudairi returned to Abdulaziz in 1920, and the couple remained married until Ibn Saud’s death in 1953.

    Though the king had some 21 other wives and concubines, it was said that Ms. al-Sudairi was his favourite, partly because she bore him more sons (seven) than did any other wife, along with four daughters.

    Altogether, Ibn Saud had close to 100 children, 45 of them sons. In the competitive world of Saudi royalty, the seven brothers born to Ms. al-Sudairi formed an alliance that would later ensure their continued prominence.

    King Fahd (1982-2005) was the couple’s oldest son; Prince Sultan was crown prince (2005-2011); Prince Nayef was minister of the interior (1975-2012), and Salman is the new king. The other three brothers have served in lesser but important positions.

    The exception to Sudairi rule was the late King Abdullah, who succeeded Fahd in 2005. He had been named second-in-line to the throne by a previous non-Sudairi, King Khalid (1975-82) and became crown prince when Fahd became king in 1982. Abdullah remained in position to ascend the throne by combining the support of many other descendants of King Abdulaziz who were passed over in favour of Sudairis for various positions.

    Once a Sudairi, King Salman, was back on the throne, however, he quickly made sure his successor would come from the Sudairi line.

  22. 22.

    David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch

    I wouldn’t make too much of bumbling Jared’s trip. They just had a big conference of international investors.

    He’s been begging left and right for refinancing of his failed manhattan building. I’m sure he was there with his tin cup.

  23. 23.

    NotMax

    Also in the region today –

    Iran on Saturday displayed a surface-to-surface missile as part of events marking the anniversary of the 1979 US Embassy takeover and hostage crisis amid uncertainty about its nuclear deal with world powers.

    Thousands gathered at the former US embassy in downtown Tehran where a missile, believed to be a 2,000-kilometer-range solid-fuel Sejjil, was on display. It was the first time Iran displayed a missile during the annual gathering.

    Later in the day, the semi-official Tasnim news agency, which has ties to the elite Revolutionary Guard, said the missile was a Qadr-F that has the same range. Source

  24. 24.

    Chris

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Whenever I hear about “anti corruption campaigns” in authoritarian nations, which is how this is being justified, I generally assume it’s something like that. Putin making a big show of cracking down on politically unfriendly “corrupt” oligarchs, Xi’s campaign against corruption in the CCP.

  30. 30.

    Cheryl Rofer

    Adam is more of a regional expert for this than I am, but this is my current understanding from experts in my Twitter feed and my own thinking. So – totally speculative. I think that any commentary is in that category at this point.

    Lebanon’s Prime Minister, Saad Hariri, resigned earlier today, citing concern about Iran’s influence and his personal safety. His father was assassinated.

    Then a missile was shot from Yemen toward Riyad, and apparently another missile was fired back at Yemen. Iran is active in Yemen, supporting the groups that oppose the groups supported by Saudi Arabia.

    Then the news came of arrests and resignations. The Riyad airport was shut down to prevent people from leaving. Eleven arrests so far.

    The sweeping campaign of arrests appears to be the latest move to consolidate the power of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the favorite son and top adviser of King Salman.

    At 32, the crown prince is already the dominant voice in Saudi military, foreign, economic and social policies, stirring murmurs of discontent in the royal family that he has amassed too much personal power, and at a remarkably young age.

    The king had decreed the creation of a powerful new anti-corruption committee, headed by the crown prince, only hours before the committee ordered the arrests.

    Al Arabiya said that the anticorruption committee has the right to investigate, arrest, ban from travel, or freeze the assets of anyone it deems corrupt.

    Jared Kushner made a secret trip last week, as Betty notes. Not clear whether he gave an explicit go-ahead or tripped into an April Glaspie moment.

    Not clear how Lebanon and Yemen work into this, but Saudi Arabia’s big enemy in the region is Iran, which is involved in both. There’s already a war in Yemen, and Lebanon has had more than its share of war, but would not be surprising if it fell into it again, with the help of Saudi Arabia.

    ETA: I see Adam has checked in.

  32. 32.

    Mnemosyne

    @Yutsano:

    It makes sense if you realize that the US has been defanged as a potential counterweight and now the internal issues of Saudi Arabia that have been held in check by the past 30+ years of US policy are going to come pouring out because they know the US has no way to stop them.

    But I may be too much of a pessimist.

  36. 36.

    Chris

    @Mnemosyne:

    When I was studying this two years ago, the vibe was that Saudi Arabia, already disappointed by Bush and Obama’s presidencies, wasn’t planning to abandon the American alliance, but was definitely no longer relying on it to guarantee its interests and was becoming much more assertive in regional policy. That, of course, was before Trump…

  39. 39.

    p.a.

    I would like to have, as a yearly income, what I imagine Tillerson’s yearly scotch budget is since he took the gig at state working for the child-president.

  41. 41.

    GregB

    Let’s not forget it was how many Trump years ago where he was talking about the calm before the storm after meeting with his military muckity mucks.

    The only time he got universal praise in recent memory was when he lobbed a few cruise missiles into Syria.

    The far right Israeli press is hitting the Iran/Hezbollah/Syria axis story hard.

    A person who’s opinion in the region I consider pretty accurate now pegs an Israeli strike into Lebanon at 50%.

    President Little Hands wants to use the powers at his little fingertips in a bad way.

  43. 43.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Mnemosyne: Doubtful that it was timed that way. More likely Prince Al Waleed was either planning a coup and word got out or actually had begun one and he got his wings clipped pretty hard.

    You have to remember that there are around 1,000 or so princes and they’re all funding stuff they shouldn’t, involved with stuff they shouldn’t be, etc. They’ll say and do one thing inside the Kingdom, tell the US something else, and then do the opposite within the region. They’ve been prosecuting a proxy war against Iran and to a certain extent Turkey for over 5 years to become the regional hegemon. Part of the rise of ISIS in Syria, as well as the Syrian Civil War is the result of Saudi meddling. Specifically under an intelligence driven proxy war via funding coordinated by Bandar until he had his authority to do this stuff taken away.

  46. 46.

    Tomanjeri

    @GregB: Trumps “calm before the storm” comment was the uranium non-story. He eats up the “Trump is a marketing genius” and thought he could resell a debunked conspiracy and like everything else, he failed.

  48. 48.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Mnemosyne: Air Force One has rather sophisticated communications systems these days. Also, not all events in the world involve the US. The Saudi prince who did this probably acted according to his own timetable – not that of the US President.

  50. 50.

    Yutsano

    @GregB:

    The far right Israeli press is hitting the Iran/Hezbollah/Syria axis story hard.

    I assume by this you mean harder than normal.

  51. 51.

    Aleta

    The NYT article on the power consolidation led with the arrest of billionaire investor Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, maybe because of the expected financial shock.

    Prince Alwaleed’s arrest is sure to send shock waves both through the Kingdom and the world’s major financial centers.

    He controls the investment firm Kingdom Holding and is one of the world’s richest men, with major stakes in News Corp, Citigroup, Twitter and many other well-known companies. The prince also controls satellite television networks watched across the Arab world.

    Prince Alwaleed was giving interviews to the Western news media as recently as late last month about subjects like so-called crypto currencies and Saudi Arabia’s plans for a public offering of shares in its state oil company, Aramco.

    The king had decreed the creation of a powerful new anti-corruption committee, headed by the crown prince, only hours before the committee ordered the arrests. Al Arabiya said that the anticorruption committee has the right to investigate, arrest, ban from travel, or freeze the assets of anyone it deems corrupt. …

    Before sparring with Mr. Trump, Prince Alwaleed was publicly rebuffed by Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani, who rejected his $10 million donation for the victims of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks in New York because the prince had also criticized American foreign policy.

    (Prince Alwaleed) openly supported women driving long before the kingdom said it would grant them the right to do so, and he has long employed women in his orbit.
    In 2015 he pledged to donate his fortune of $32 billion to charity after his death.

    It was unclear Saturday whether Saudi Arabia’s corruption committee might seek to confiscate any of his assets.
    …
    At least three senior White House officials, including the president’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, were reportedly in Saudi Arabia last month for meetings that were undisclosed at the time.

  53. 53.

    Adam L Silverman

    @NotMax: Here’s my quick take: everyone should actually read the whole declaration. Jews, Israelis, and Zionists – Jewish or otherwise – only read the first clause. The Palestinians, other Arabs, Muslims, and supporters of the Palestinians only read the second clause. No one reads the third clause, which was the most important of the three. Basically the Balfour Declaration is the 2nd Amendment of international politics.

  55. 55.

    Amir Khalid

    @Adam L Silverman:
    We never seem to hear about an aristocracy in Saudi Arabia, only kings and princes. To my knowledge monarchies usually have that ruling/social hierarchy between royals and common folk. One would expect an aristocracy in an absolute monarchy like Saudi Arabia to have some power at the provincial level, with the bluest bloods being players at the national level. Where are they?

  65. 65.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Amir Khalid: There isn’t one. Saudi functions as a kinship/familial system. The King, or Crown Prince acting as regent as is often the case because a lot of the more recent Saudi monarchs have been infirm, rules the country. All the other members of the royal family answer to him and everyone in Saudi is considered to be distant kin that must follow the head of the households rule. There’s no mediating layer of nobility similar to what developed in feudal Europe or Japan or imperial China. There is a layer of wealthy and privileged retainers, but they’re not really an equivalent for what you’re talking about.

  73. 73.

    Petorado

    It’s not lost on Arabic twitter that this is all taking place on Guy Fawkes Day … “Remember, remember the 5th of November.”

  74. 74.

    Aleta

    Kyle GriffinVerified account @kylegriffin1
    NBC News confirms Carter Page had a brief encounter with Russian Deputy PM Dvorkovich in Moscow in July 2016, via @KenDilanianNBC.

    Laurence Tribe Retweeted Kyle Griffin
    Page went with Sessions’ blessing on Trump’s behalf, reported back to campaign, then lied that it was a purely private trip. He’s going down

  76. 76.

    GregB

    @Yutsano:

    Point indeed taken.

    Here’s a quick headline rundown from Isreali Times.

    *With Hariri’s Resignation Lebanon is Now a Full-on Iranian Proxy for All to See.

    *Lebanon PM resigns, says he fears for his life. Slams Iran, Hezbollah.

    *Netanyahu: Hariri resignation a wake up call on Iran threat to region

    *Iran blames Hariri resignation on Trump, Saudi Prince.

  79. 79.

    NotMax

    BTW Adam, Stephen Miller will be accompanying Dolt 45 for the entirety of the overseas sojourn.

    (Unlike Melania, who returns after the stop in China.)

  84. 84.

    Adam L Silverman

    @NotMax: Speechwriting duties. He’s got no foreign policy knowledge at all other than brown people and Muslims are bad. My guess is this is also a hardliners attempt to keep someone with the President during the trip so that he’s not seduced to the dark side by McMaster and Dina Powell.

  85. 85.

    Amir Khalid

    @Adam L Silverman:
    This Malaysian would be quite impressed, though. Our own Malaysian Official One, Najib, could never jump that high. Not that he hasn’t tried to kiss up to Trump, maybe because he’d like Trump to call off the FBI.

  86. 86.

    NotMax

    @Adam L. Silverman

    Will see your Ultraman and raise you a Johnny Sokko.

    Still laugh remembering a scene of young Johnny hopping into a passing cab and breathlessly saying “Take me to secret headquarters!”

    Cabbie responds, “Right away!”

  90. 90.

    Roger Moore

    @Amir Khalid:
    My understanding is that Saudi Arabia has over 1000 princes, which is what they call basically any male descendant of ibn Saud who doesn’t have some more exalted title. That means the upper level of the aristocracy is basically made up of princes.

  92. 92.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Cheryl Rofer: I think Murphy is largely correct. This is Muhammad bin Salman consolidating power. He’s either fitting his relatives for metaphorical collars with short leashes or he’s going to have them dropped in a dark hole. It would not surprise me if his father doesn’t either abdicate soon or die suddenly leaving the 32 year old Muhammad bin Salman as the youngest Saudi monarch in at least 100 years.

  96. 96.

    Mnemosyne

    @Cheryl Rofer:

    Yeah, in case I wasn’t clear, I don’t think this is in any way directed or otherwise organized by Trump and his dudes. My only thought was that it might make the plan easier to pull off if Trump was traveling and thus distracted. Less potential for interference even if the US wanted to.

  98. 98.

    Roger Moore

    @Aleta:

    Laurence Tribe Retweeted Kyle Griffin
    Page went with Sessions’ blessing on Trump’s behalf, reported back to campaign, then lied that it was a purely private trip. He’s going down

    He’s not going down. He’s going to sing like a canary lyrebird. The man can’t keep his mouth shut to save his life.

  99. 99.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Aleta: That is unclear at this time. King Salman recently (about three weeks ago) met with Putin. Xi is also looking to make major inroads into Saudi. They recognize that the President is diminishing the US’s standing within the global system and are moving to embrace opportunities they either didn’t expect to have at all (Russia) or for years to come (the PRC).

  101. 101.

    Cheryl Rofer

    @Mnemosyne: The US has been giving friendly signs to Saudi Arabia since Trump came into office. Part of the unthinking opposition to Iran. Probably not a big part of this, just makes the calculation a little easier.

  104. 104.

    Cheryl Rofer

    What Adam said with the complicating factor that Putin is making nice to Iran too. Would be nice if he could make peace between Iran and Saudi Arabia, but that’s a long way away, if ever.

  105. 105.

    Felonius Monk

    Slightly O/T, but it is now November 5th. Did I miss the Antifa Apocalypse yesterday? Who won?

  108. 108.

    Amir Khalid

    @Roger Moore:
    The men of the House of Saud are, shall we say, prolific fathers. And since King Abdul Rahman Al Saud died in 1953, the kings succeeding him have all been his sons. That’s why the current king is in his 80s.

  109. 109.

    Suzanne

    Is there a good primer or Twitter thread detailing the events of the day? I’ve been mostly disconnected today and need to catch up.

  114. 114.

    Aleta

    @Cheryl Rofer: (uninformed speculating) Then there’s Trump, believing he can be in alliance with Putin, while mostly seeing Saudis in terms of money-making deals for himself.

  120. 120.

    Chris

    @Adam L Silverman:

    The impression I was under was that as disappointed as they’ve gotten with us, the Saudis were unlikely to look for great power patronage in Russia or China simply because all the problems they have with us would still be there and probably even more so (i.e. if we’re not slapping Iran enough for them, Iran’s patrons aren’t likely to).

    Think that’s changing? Or simply that they’re doing the traditional third world country game of playing the major powers off of each other?

  129. 129.

    Adam L Silverman

    @MomSense: Unfortunately.
    https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/11/05/national/politics-diplomacy/trump-said-japan-shot-overflying-north-korea-missiles/

    KYODO, STAFF REPORT
    NOV 5, 2017
    ARTICLE HISTORY PRINT
    WASHINGTON – U.S. President Donald Trump has said Japan should have shot down the North Korean missiles that flew over the country before landing in the Pacific Ocean earlier this year, diplomatic sources have said, despite the difficulties and potential ramifications of doing so.

    The revelation came ahead of Trump’s arrival in Japan on Sunday at the start of his five-nation trip to Asia. Threats from North Korea’s nuclear weapons and missile development programs were set to be high on the agenda in his talks with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Monday.

    Trump questioned Japan’s decision not to shoot down the missiles when he met or spoke by phone with leaders from Southeast Asian countries over recent months to discuss how to respond to the threats from North Korea, the sources said.

    The U.S. president said he could not understand why a country of samurai warriors did not shoot down the missiles, the sources said.

    More at the link.

  130. 130.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Chris: I honestly don’t know what they’re doing because the decision making appears to be coming from a 32 year old neophyte with delusions of grandeur (a lot of that going around – Jared, Miller…). Saudi politics, especially those focused around the royal family, is like watching a bucket filled with crabs all trying to climb out on the backs of the others and all trying to pull those climbing out down so as to take their place.

  131. 131.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Felonius Monk: That’s why I was late getting to the Saudi post. I was part of a team of neutral observers sent by the Elders of Zion, the Illuminati, the Bilderbergers, the Trilateral Commission, the British Royal Family, the Carter Presidential Center, the Girl Scouts, and the United Nations to observe the battle to ensure it conformed to the Geneva Conventions and prevent another Bowling Green massacre.//

  133. 133.

    Felonius Monk

    @Aleta:

    What if the aliens mistake our seemingly inert heads for baked potatoes?

    It will be ok as long as they don’t try to squirt butter and sour cream in our ears.

  135. 135.

    Felonius Monk

    @Adam L Silverman:

    prevent another Bowling Green massacre.

    Looks like you failed, my friend.

    Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) was assaulted at his home on Friday, according to police.

    “Senator Paul was blindsided and the victim of an assault,” spokesperson Kelsey Cooper said Saturday, as quoted by several outlets. “The assailant was arrested and it is now a matter for the police. Senator Paul is fine.”

    Rene Boucher, 59, of Bowling Green, has been charged with fourth degree assault, according to a press release from Kentucky State Police shared with TPM (read the full release below).

    (Source)

  136. 136.

    Amir Khalid

    @Adam L Silverman:
    He’s Crown Prince to an eighty-something King. He’s a newbie at wielding power, but he’s been handed a shit-ton of it and that’s always worrisome.

  143. 143.

    Aleta

    Ali Hashem علي هاشم‏ @alihashem_tv 7h7 hours ago

    Given PM @saadhariri resignation coincided with the arrests in KSA, many started questioning whether Hariri stepped down for a Saudi reason

  146. 146.

    Steve in the ATL

    @Aleta:

    Hope they don’t go bacon our hearts.

    Posts like this one are exactly why the pie filter was created!

  147. 147.

    ?BillinGlendaleCA

    @Adam L Silverman:

    I was part of a team of neutral observers sent by the Elders of Zion, the Illuminati, the Bilderbergers, the Trilateral Commission, the British Royal Family, the Carter Presidential Center, the Girl Scouts, and the United Nations to observe the battle to ensure it conformed to the Geneva Conventions and prevent another Bowling Green massacre.

    Good to see you’re on the case, Adam.

  149. 149.

    Fair Economist

    @Aleta:

    NBC News confirms Carter Page had a brief encounter with Russian Deputy PM Dvorkovich in Moscow in July 2016,

    That is a really high level contact.

  151. 151.

    Brachiator

    @Adam L Silverman:

    The U.S. president said he could not understand why a country of samurai warriors did not shoot down the missiles, the sources said.

    Did Trump really say this? Is he really that stupid?

    Oh well, I guess this may play into the Japanese prime Minister’s plan to revise the Japanese Constitution, to provide a needed up “defensive” military.

  152. 152.

    fuckwit

    Meh. We live in the dumbest timeline.

    Long civil war in Yemen, parties involved are proxies for Saudi and Iran, Yemen takes shot at its neighbor Saudi’s airport from short range with low-flying missile, Saudis shoot it down with Patriots when it gets within range on its way down. Twitler gets a boner and Tweets about it, and implies it came from Iran (it didn’t). Saudis then flatten city in Yemen using American ordnance.

    Meanwhile in a completely unrelated incident, DPRK sends medium range missile weeks ago at high altitude way over Japan and splashes it down impotently in an ocean. Twitler remains clueless and wants Japan to travel back in time and shoot it down even though it never came anywhere near them or near anything that could have shot it down.

    Finallly, the Saudi crown prince conducts a political purge. None of these things have much if anything to do with each other.

  153. 153.

    sharl

    In a late 2015 report released to selected media, the German intelligence agency (“BND”) said things were starting to get weird in KSA: German spy agency warns of Saudi shift to ‘impulsive’ policies

    BERLIN (Reuters) – Germany’s BND foreign intelligence agency, in an unusual public statement issued on Wednesday, voiced concern that Saudi Arabia was becoming impulsive in its foreign policy as powerful young Deputy Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman asserts himself.

    The BND also said that with Saudi Arabia – the world’s No. 1 oil exporter – losing confidence in the United States as a guarantor of Middle East order, Riyadh appeared ready to take more risks in its regional competition with Iran.

    Since King Salman succeeded to power in January, Saudi Arabia has orchestrated a military coalition to intervene in neighboring Yemen to limit Iranian influence, increased support for Syrian rebels and made big changes in the royal succession.

    “The thus far cautious diplomatic stance of the elder leaders in the royal family is being replaced by an impulsive interventionist policy,” the BND said, adding the Saudis remain committed to the removal of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

    Iran, a major ally of Assad, denies having expansionist aims and accuses Saudi Arabia of undermining regional stability through its backing of Syrian rebels and intervention in Yemen.

    The BND issued the 1-1/2 page report, entitled “Saudi Arabia – Sunni regional power torn between foreign policy paradigm change and domestic policy consolidation”, to some German media. Reuters also obtained a copy.

    It pointed to risks stemming from the concentration of power in Prince Mohammad, who it said could get carried away with efforts to secure the royal family succession in his favor.

    So maybe(?) we’re seeing some of this stuff now being fully implemented.

    I don’t know if the U.S. factors much into all this, except that – as noted in the Reuters article – Riyadh doesn’t consider us as reliable an ally. It should be noted that the Reuters piece was written in late 2015, when by most accounts Obama was trying to chill things out with Iran just a bit (yay from me, boo from neocons and a handful of billionaire Bibi allies). I don’t think anyone expected we’d now have President Twitler. Although he has been much friendlier and totally accommodating to Riyadh than Obama was, questions about his power and competence may have convinced Crown Prince MbS to proceed with the presumption that Washington will be of little reliable use for his own goals, at least for the near term. That’s all just speculation on my part, of course.

  154. 154.

    Amir Khalid

    @Brachiator:
    Japan has a pacifist post-war constitution thanks to the USA. Here’s Article 9:

    (1) Aspiring sincerely to an international peace based on justice and order, the Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes.
    (2) In order to accomplish the aim of the preceding paragraph, land, sea, and air forces, as well as other war potential, will never be maintained. The right of belligerency of the state will not be recognized.

    Since the 1950s it’s had the Japanese Self-Defence Forces, whose mission is to defend Japan from invasion and, only since 2015, to come to the aid of allied nations if needed. I remember that even JSDF participation in international peacekeeping operations has been hotly debated. While JSDF capabilities are said to be considerable, it seems there’s not a lot of eagerness in Japan for war as an option. How much support does Abe have for his proposal?

  155. 155.

    TS

    @Aleta:

    At least three senior White House officials, including the president’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, were reportedly in Saudi Arabia last month for meetings that were undisclosed at the time.

    Did President Obama or his senior staff have undisclosed meetings outside of the country? Is this usual for US administrations?

  156. 156.

    Zinsky

    And I don’t understand why a country of cowboys didn’t lasso and hogtie that North Korean missile, since that’s all we do as cowboys. Good God, President ClownHair is such an incredible embarrassment and disgrace to this country….

  158. 158.

    Xenos

    I am surprised that Trump is out pushing for the NYSE to list Aramco. London is risking real problems to take them on, and this is not the sort of deal we should mind losing.

    For reference, see the Economist’s brilliantly titled “My Kingdom for a bourse“.

  159. 159.

    Cheryl Rofer

    @TS: It’s usual when necessary. There were secret meetings (although the secret was kept much, much better) to set up the talks that led to the Iran nuclear agreement. Pre-talks like that are often secret because countries are taking a risk and don’t want to lose face or allow opposition to build to actions that may be controversial.

    So secrecy is not bad in itself. Being Jared is.

  161. 161.

    The Simp in the Suit

    @Adam L Silverman: Not to be (more of a snarky) asshole, but what real difference would it make if everyone read the entire three paragraphs of the Balfour Declaration?

  162. 162.

    Tenar Arha

    @Adam L Silverman: This was my daily facepalm moment last night. The man is such a completely uniformed dunce.

    This was me last night:

    ??!!! ??? OMG doesn’t even understand that our country itself is historically the biggest reason that Japan doesn’t and was never going to have the capacity to shoot down missiles. *incoherent spluttering*

  164. 164.

    Adam L Silverman

    @TS: Most likely. This is what highly level, and highly experienced, special envoys are for. It is not clear why Kushner went to Saudi. It is not clear what the result of that visit was. Perhaps it was: I’ll get pop pop to ignore what you’re planning if, once you seize Prince Al Waleed’s investment fund you do what he wouldn’t and that’s bail out my underwater and upside down mortgage in Manhattan. Or, perhaps, it was: “we’re going to roll out a new Israeli-Palestinian peace proposal after the Asia trip and want you all on board”. There is, at this time, no way to know.

  165. 165.

    Adam L Silverman

    @The Simp in the Suit: This is the final clause:

    it being clearly understood that nothing shall be done which may prejudice the civil and religious rights of existing non-Jewish communities in Palestine, or the rights and political status enjoyed by Jews in any other country.

  167. 167.

    debbie

    And to think I slept through all of this. Trusting that Jared’s taken care of everything already.

  168. 168.

    Adam L Silverman

    @debbie: Just as soon as Ivanka fixes him his bowl of cocoa puffs and he watches his Sunday morning cartoons.

    Basically this is Muhammad bin Salman consolidating power and control. That’s pretty much all it is. There hasn’t been any major updates to the list of princes detained. No other really big names other than Al Waleed bin Talal and the couple of others already in custody. If there had been a coup the detainee/arrest list would have been different.

    The key to remember right now is that Muhammad bin Salman talks a very interesting game about modernization of the kingdom, deradicalization of the type of Islam practiced in Saudi Arabia, diversification of the kingdom’s economy, etc. But he has no control over the second of those, limited control over the first, and apparently a fair amount over the third. But he’s also one of the few prominent princes who wasn’t educated outside of the kingdom. So no Oxford or Cambridge or Sandhurst or Harvard or Yale. By all reports he, at least as of a few months ago, could understand English, but couldn’t speak it well. This is unusual for a Saudi prince of his station. It is unclear right now if Saudi has finally found its modernizer who will remake the kingdom and pave the way for real reforms, which could of course get away with him and do away with the monarchy, or an overly ambitious, unprepared neophyte with delusions of grandeur.

  170. 170.

    Adam L Silverman

    @debbie: Qatar has over 11,000 US military and civilian personnel stationed there at CENTCOM HQ Forward. Muhammad bin Salman may be backing his friend, the Crown Prince of Abi Dhabi’s attempt to install a member of the Qatari royal family more amenable to his whims, but it is unlikely to happen any time soon because of the US military presence in the country.

  173. 173.

    J R in WV

    @GregB:

    The message to the royals and other billionaires is “Don’t worry too much, the Ritz is not hard time. You will be treated properly according to your station and relatinship with the King. This is being done according to the traditions of our kingdom.”

    Unsaid is that many of these folks, if found to have indulged in illegal foreign adventures or actual corruption, stealing from the Kingdom (i.e. the King) may lose a shit-ton of money in penalties prior to their release to a remote desert city with nice hotels.

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