This should be a surprise to NO ONE:
The vast majority of Americans would get a tax cut if the bill becomes law, TPC found, but the rich would benefit the most. The finding comes amid intense debate over whether this bill does enough to help the middle and working classes, a key promise of President Trump.
The middle of the middle — those making $48,000 to $86,000 — would get an average tax cut of $700 next year, according to TPC. Meanwhile, taxpayers in the top 1 percent (those making more than $730,000) would receive an average cut of $37,000 next year, and the top 0.01 percent (those making more than $3.44 million) would see their after-tax incomes rise by an average of $179,000 in 2018.
“The largest cuts in terms of dollars and as a percentage of after-tax income would accrue to the higher-income households,” TPC wrote.
Since the wealthy pay more in taxes, some Republicans have argued it makes sense for them to get a bigger tax cut in dollar terms. But TPC also looked at the percent change in after-tax income for the poor, middle class and rich. Using that metric makes it easier to compare across the income groups. According to TPC, the middle class would get a 1.2 percent boost to their after-tax income, while taxpayers in the top 1 percent would get a 2.5 percent boost. The bottom 40 percent would get almost no benefit.
This isn’t a tax cut. It’s looting.
WereBear
Oh, now you are quibbling about definitions like some pointy-headed intellectual or something!
Cheryl Rofer
Graduate students would be hit particularly hard, because most universities don’t charge them tuition. The tuition credit would be taxed as income under this bill. I’ve seen estimates from graduate students in my Twitter feed that with a stipend of around $13,000, they would have to pay between $3000 and $4000 income tax. I may not have those numbers quite right, but they’re close.
Calouste
The middle class gets a tax cut, but lowering the mortgage interest deduction means that people will not be able to gets as a high a mortgage, so if you own a home now, you won’t make as much when you sell it, and that probably will more than offset the tax cut.
NotMax
Deficit? What deficit? La-la-la-la, can’t hear you.
/Republicans
Mnemosyne
As I said in the thread below, the Republicans looked at the same polls we did and realized that Trump’a “white working class” voters actually make more than $50K a year. This is them keeping his base happy at the expense of the rest of us.
Lee
According to the data sheet the GOP put out Republicans think middle class Americans earn $450,000 a year
jl
Need to contact Senators and House Reps.
If can’t stop it, maybe can persuade or politically threaten Senators to shrink it.
The miserable con job has shrunk considerably already because the powerful wealthy interests are so greedy, not one will give up any major tax expenditure (aka, loophole). So they can’t slash as much as they had hoped. I saw a hilarious and disgusting clip of the GOPer Hose liar admitting that he could name no major corporate loophole that was closed.
Plenty of loopholes closed for poor, working class and middle class. That is the main reason why, long term, they will see tax increases or no tax cut at all.
Need to stop it or persuade Senate to shrink this monstrosity even more. And shrinkage in Senate might make the hogs in the House throw a tantrum and derail it.
Betty Cracker
We need an all-out effort to defeat this screw-job of a bill, just like the Obamacare repeal attempts. Paint the Republicans as corrupt fat cats who are boning the middle class so Ivanka can get a tax cut. It’s all true! We need to shout it from the rooftops.
Chris
Welcome to post-Reagan America.
One of the notable things about the modern variations on fascism is how much more brazen and up-front they are about the fact that they’re basically corporate pirates, from Putin’s Russia on to all of his moneyed
useful idiotsfriends in the West. That’s not actually a big change; the original fascists/Nazis were corrupt as fuck, as you’d expect from movements that made their first inroads into politics as strike-breakers and union-busters for the local pezzonovantes. But at least those people had the common courtesy to project the image of a gleaming efficient state bureaucracy.catclub
@NotMax: They have still won if not enough people stop and say “You should not be proposing ANY tax giveaways while the economy is the best it has been in ten years and the unemployment rate is the best it has been in 20 years”
When the economy is good is when you need to balance the budget – like Clinton did.
hitchhiker
I’m to the point now where I’m numb to stupidity and ignorance. I see it everywhere I look — it’s as if the country’s been taken over by people with bright purple splotches on their faces and arms. God will take care of murdered babies. Guns don’t kill people. Trump is smart and kind. America is not racist. Women are not harassed. There’s no such thing as rape. Abortion is murder. Lowering taxes will not cause deficit spending. Russia is our friend. The climate is not changing.
It’s too much.
jl
@Betty Cracker: I think main hope is the extreme, nearly insane greed of corporate and rich people on this. The coalition is hard, but brittle. I think if can persuade Senate to moderate it, will cause problems. Either another one of the absurd tantrums we have seen from the House Freecom Caucus, or will trigger intractable and disruptive negotiations that cannot lead anywhere (because everyone of their ultra rich funders is so insanely greedy) that will run out the clock and lead to another insane last minute votarama.
I read that they want to get this done by Thanksgiving. So they are planning another half ass rush job, and bullying Congressfinks to vote on last minute concoction of mystery meat. So, that is a weakness.
Need to look at whether the plan to use tax slash to gut Medicaid and Medicare is still a big part of the package. I read this mess is polling at 20 percent, a fact the Congressfinks might be interested to know.
Kraux Pas
…and lot of people will be happy with their pittance. Their tax cut won’t make a much of a difference to them but will feel good. Meanwhile these same folk will shrug off the fact that the person writing their check will get a tax cut exceeding their annual income (why invest more in your business/employees when the government is incentivizing investment in your own paycheck?) The inevitable decline in services will cost people more than they saved in taxes and will be blamed on the party of government. Sad.
Mike J
@Cheryl Rofer: Not just grad students. Elementary school teachers who buy pencils and crayons for use in their classrooms are going to lose their $250 deduction.
eclare
@catclub: Plus with all of the natural disasters we’ve had this year.
Chris
@Mnemosyne:
“Fun fact” digression: when the new Spider Man movie came out this summer, there were a lot of people talking about the class aspects of it, with the main villain being a little guy who was steamrolled by the Stark Industries giant and trying to get back at the world. But then there were a couple of reviews that pushed back against that and pointed out that the villain is, in fact, a business owner who, based on everything we see, might not be Tony Stark, but is nevertheless perfectly comfortable, economically secure, and his own boss.
The latter reviewers’ point was that the “oh, this is about class!” reaction illustrated something about the way we talk about class these days: the main villain fits everybody’s image of the working class, because he’s “a white guy standing next to industrial equipment.”
dmsilev
Basically, this bill is a combination of giveaways to the richest sliver of the country (not even top 1%, more like top 0.1%) combined with screwing over as many non-Republican groups as possible. I’m just surprised it doesn’t contain a provision banning Obama from starting a Presidential Library. So far, anyway.
Chris
@jl:
Don’t forget another scary aspect of tax reform: they may try to use it to gut the ACA mandate, too.
catclub
@Cheryl Rofer:
the new 12% rate applies to AGI up to $45k and the standard deduction is of order $10k for an individual. So is that grad student getting $55k?
I was thinking that $3-4k was 25% of the tuition forgiveness.
jl
If contacting Congress to stop it seems hopeless and discouraging, then contact them for the joy of making their days and nights miserable and their press lousy. You (YOU!) might be able to get a story in the local press about your GOP Congressfink not answering any phones!
And contact them for the joy of telling them that they have produced another stinker bill that is polling at 20 percent. Many House GOPers in rigged districts might not care. But it might give Senators a second thought.
@Chris: thanks for reminding me. Andy Slavitt is an analyst who is closely following this aspect.
(Edit: @ASlavitt on twitter)
SatanicPanic
The Brownbackening of America!
ArchTeryx
@Cheryl Rofer: In that case I root for injuries. It would basically close off STEM graduate work to anyone but those with wealthy parents, but it also would completely destroy the extremely exploitative system built around graduate student and postdoctoral labor in many STEM fields. My own personal rallying cry has been “academia delenda est” for several years now. That would sure as hell do it, and it’d be hard for me not to cheer amidst the burning ruins.
catclub
@jl:
there are actually good signs on that front. There are already three GOP senators who have said no to this bill in its present form.
trollhattan
@Calouste:
It’s brutal on first-time homebuyers in more expensive areas since their budget calculations when qualifying include their income tax liability, and this will mean they will qualify for smaller loans, pricing them out of what may be entry-level houses where they’re trying to buy.
Like every problem, the Republican solution will be “move to Texas.”
Yutsano
@Mnemosyne: Last I checked, a lot of those filers use the mortgage interest, medical expenses, and student loan deduction. There’s no real point in raising the standard deduction if you lose just about everything else that goes along with it.
Hell just do away with the Schedule A entirely. See how folks feel when they’re stuck with standard deduction period.
trollhattan
@Lee:
I am so asking for a raise!
NotMax
@catclubLong excerpt because some folks here have mentioned they have problems with the site linked.
Greenergood
Oh for heaven’s sake – they send it all off shore anyway – we’ve no control over these internationally minded shysters and McTurtle is happy to keep it that way. The motto is ‘No money from the rich shall help the poors, forever.’
schrodingers_cat
@Cheryl Rofer: That would get rid of most international students pursuing graduate studies. MAGA at work. I don’t think its an accidental provision.
schrodingers_cat
@trollhattan: Move to Texas and get shot in your church?
Roger Moore
Also note that the figures they’re quoting are for next year. There are a bunch of tax breaks for lower income people that expire after 5 years, so things get a lot worse if you look at 2023 instead of 2018.
The Moar You Know
@jl: They do know. They don’t think it’s a problem.
I wonder why that is. None of the answers I can think of are very reassuring.
jl
One gimmick they are using is to front load the tax cuts and delay closing tax expenditures (aka loopholes) for poor, working and middle class. So they will sell what happens year after the bill passes. But look five years down the road, and forever after, the cuts turn into nothing, or tax hikes for the rest of your life.
OTOH, for wealthy corporations and people, the cuts and addition of MORE tax expenditues (aka loopholes) are backloaded and start to really kick in a few years after passage.
Might want to point out to Congressfinks you contact that you are on to the con, and telling your friends, family and neighbors about it.
NotMax
@The Moar You Know
Higher than Congress usually stands in polls.
“See? It’s more popular than we are!”
danielx
@SatanicPanic:
It’s theology.
jl
@The Moar You Know: Harass Congress on their outrageous con job and hideous policy for the joy of irritating them, then. I usually don’t expect DiFi to mind my very wise advice. But I do look forward to including some irritating snark after my logical arguments, supported by true facts.
Harass Dems on why we are not hearing more stink about it.
Tissue Thin Pseudonym
@Betty Cracker:
Kevin Drum has an observation that could lead to a rallying cry. He points out that almost 60% of U.S. corporate profits are held in offshore tax havens, and that the Republicans’ tax bill would allow them to be brought onshore at ridiculously low rates.
Republicans: In favor of amnesty for money, but not for people.
trollhattan
@schrodingers_cat:
As your kid learns Darwin is the devil, your neighborhood floods and the fertilizer warehouse next to the school explodes.
subcommandante yakbreath
Self employed craftsperson since 1986 here. One year I actually grossed $40,000.
These people give me a serious irk.
Dorothy A. Winsor (formerly Iowa Old Lady)
@schrodingers_cat: Domestic students too. I don’t see how an English Dept continues to function. A big university has hundreds of sections of first year comp taught each year by TAs from all over the country, who are paid maybe $13K if they’re PhD students, less than that if they’re MA. But their tuition is waived.
trollhattan
@trollhattan:
One more feather in the Texas hat.
What’s the thing Republicans always say about not needing new gun laws, just enforcement of existing ones?
Brachiator
@jl:
Again, the GOP does not care about polls; nor do they care about Trump’s base. They are insulated by gerrymandering, voter suppression and money.
The few supply side true believers actually think that this massive tax cut will bring prosperity. The ideologically twisted see starving the government as a necessary precursor to killing Social Security and Medicare. The rest are beholden to the money men, and are hot to do their bidding.
The Right Wing propaganda machine (Sinclair, Clear Channel, Fox News) will pound the lie that a small tax cut is good for those getting it and that the rich obviously deserve their massive cuts. And the GOP Congress is betting that they will be able to survive any mid term election challenge.
We have to prove them wrong.
TenguPhule
This isn’t looting, this is strip mining.
Cheryl Rofer
@catclub: I didn’t do the calculations, just recalling numbers I’ve seen from more than one graduate student. It depends on what the tuition would be. The waived tuition is considered income.
? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?
Motherfuckers. What’s $179,000 when you’re a multi-millionaire or a billionaire? This is absolutely crazy. A $700 tax cut is not worth shreding the safety net.
NotMax
@Dorothy A. Winsor (formerly Iowa Old Lady)
Took me over a decade to pay off the loan for grad school. And that was well before costs went stratospheric.
schrodingers_cat
@Dorothy A. Winsor (formerly Iowa Old Lady): Cultural revolution time. Make America Dumb.
ETA: International students are charged out of state rates for tuition at state schools. So their take home pay would be close to zero.
SatanicPanic
@Brachiator: “Congress sucks, but the guy I voted for is great”
? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?
@Brachiator:
They won’t be insulated from bullets and bombs if this shit gets passed and eventually turns this place into a “developing” shithole.
? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?
@schrodingers_cat:
Ha! They’d like that wouldn’t they? Mao’s Cultural Revolution: GOP Style!
NotMax
@Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe)
First undeveloping country.
We’re #1! We’re #1!
schrodingers_cat
@? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?: No one can be smarter than the God Emperor Comb over Man.
WTF
Looters are poor people of color that can be shot on sight while carrying a flat screen TV.
This is more akin to Tommy and Henry “busting the joint out” like Goodfellas.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZPtjyqgZAUk
Chris
@Brachiator:
I think at this point, Republicans are like the latter era CPSU; they’re part of an in-group that’s grown so insular that they literally can’t imagine being anything else. And much like the CPSU, they’re so wedded to the world that in-group created and ruled that they’ll interpret any attempts to reform it as a direct attack and the reformer in question as a usurper to the throne.
? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?
@schrodingers_cat:
College is for dummy liebrals!. They brainwash our precious youths to think for themselves and question their Galtian overlords! Academia must be destroyed to save Real America before we’re all turned into safe-space cowering pus*sies! Wolverines!
/The Reed College morons don’t help our case.
TS
@catclub: When the economy is good you need to run with a surplus – not balanced – a surplus – GWB got this completely wrong 2004-2007 which gave President Obama a large deficit start at the financial collapse in 2008. With low unemployment, a booming economy there should be more taxes – not less.
But who believes the GOP ever thinks about economics or deficits unless a democrat is in the White House
jl
I see some of the nihilistic political performance art, for which BJ blog is justly famed, in some of the comments above.
Let’s walk through this slowly OK.
I admitted that many House GOPers won’t care about anything because they believe they live in failsafe gerrymandered districts.
I argued that Senators are more persuadable (and to add a missing bit of my argument, because states are not gerrymandered).
Also, I argued that there are two routes to success:
1) persuade Senators to oppose any bill, or vote no on anything that the the leadership spits out, and I admitted that might be a long shot
2) persuade Senators to shrink the bill, and make it more reasonable, in hope of causing problems with the House, and jamming them on their schedule. Then we get either a best case of a bad scenario (a less horrible bill passes) or no bill, plus another embarrassing PR fiasco for the Congressional leadership.
? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?
@Chris:
Are we in the Brezhnev or Andropov phase?
The Moar You Know
@? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?: “I can hire one half of the working class to kill the other half.”
Possibly more true today than it was in the 1890s. Because today there’s a lot of folks who will do the killing for free.
NotMax
@ Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe)
Can’t make an omelet without breaking some eggheads.
;)
catclub
@sylvania:
Actually, no. Corker is going to vote against it for just those reasons. there may even be 3 GOP senators to vote against it. which is enough.
Why there are not 50 senators against it for those reasons is left as an exercise for the reader.
catclub
@TS: Exactly. But the universal GOP prescription, in good times or in bad, is tax cuts for the very wealthiest, and a sop for the rest.
NotMax
@Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe)
Closer to Beria, in a troika with Jared and Ivanka.
Brachiator
@catclub:
Of course, we also need to see what will be in the Senate’s own, separate tax bill, due out this week.
Matt McIrvin
@The Moar You Know: There always was. You just pull the racism string or the xenophobia string–if anything, that was even worse then than it is now.
Brachiator
@? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?:
The Pikup Andropov phase.
Chris
@? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?:
Hey, as long as we’re not in the Yeltsin phase, there’s hope.
Dorothy A. Winsor (formerly Iowa Old Lady)
@schrodingers_cat: I know. Most PhD students I taught were out of state because our program was rated #5 in the country for what we did. Once you get to the PhD level, the best students go to the best programs no matter what state they’re in.
GregB
Speaking of populism and anti-globalism.
Thank God Hillary isn’t in the White House selling out the US to foreigners with terrible human rights records.
http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/05/03/saudi-arabia-now-controls-the-largest-oil-refinery-in-north-america-energy-middle-east-aramco/
debbie
@jl:
Not sure if this is what you’re talking about, but I heard today that the “cuts” for the middle class are temporary, unlike those for the wealthy.
debbie
@trollhattan:
The Air Force neglected to report Kelley’s domestic violence charges to the civilian authorities.
Brachiator
@jl:
The Senate is releasing their own, separate tax bill later this week. This will give you an idea of what the Senate leadership is thinking.
This is also what you (and the rest of the Senate) will have to react to, in addition to the House Bill, not your “routes to success.”
And again, the political reality is that the GOP is hot to give Trump some kind of legislative victory, even if it is pared down from whatever the House and Senate are up to currently. And the other political reality is that the money men have specifically warned the Republicans that they are shutting the vault if the GOP does not deliver. We have seen a few Republicans crack and decide to retire, but so far no signs of defiance.
However, if there are significant differences or sticking points in the Senate bill, this might get the delays you are hoping for. NOT simply reacting to the House bill.
So, you have two opportunities. Hit on flaws in the House bill and hope for similar vulnerabilities that can be focused on in the Senate bill.
When you offer routes to success, at least know what the House and Senate are actually doing.
vhh
@Chris: Absolutely correct. The latter-day Soviet communists had no idea about how ordinary people lived. Gorbachev’s great contribution to history was to open the door to that lie. (Putin is busily shutting it back now, sadly). One comment–I am not sure that ordinary Western readers even remember that CPSU stands for the Communist Party of the Soviet Union (KPSS in Russian). Says a lot for the degree to which Communism has been relegated to ash heap.
jl
@Brachiator: OK, thanks for the info and being constructive. I don’t see how what you say is all that different from what I did. But I’ll keep your view of the legislative situation in mind.
TenguPhule
@? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?: Now you sound like a suicide bomber.
TenguPhule
@Brachiator: Reconciliation promises to be interesting.
Chris
@vhh:
Good point.
My first exposure to politics as a teenager was through by-then-only-slightly-dated Tom Clancy novels, so a lot of the late Cold War acronyms have stuck with me even though they’re a little over a decade before my time. (As you can tell from the blogs I post on, not too much else about those books stuck with me…)
Miss Bianca
Note to Elizabeth Warren on “gee, how come you want to don’t want to receive any more of my campaign emails”?
OK, OK, intemperate and not actually useful, but I AM SO GODDAMNED FED-UP WITH “POPULISTS” RIGHT NOW, I could scream.
Chris
@Miss Bianca:
Yeah. I understand that Sanders has always been a putz, but Warren isn’t that dumb and has no goddamn excuse. If nothing else, she deserves that earful.
Brachiator
@jl:
You didn’t seem to know that the Senate was marking up its own separate tax bill. If I misread you here, I apologize.
As another strategy aid, note that the House Bill backed away from a proposal to make the law retroactive to all of 2017. This perhaps suggests that they are aware of weaknesses and potential opposition. But the tax and accounting industry has received signals from Congress and their staffers that they are hot, desperate, to get something passed this year. They are open to compromise, even if they have to settle for parts of the bill that they don’t like.
In any event, people will need to focus on the marked up House bill and the upcoming Senate bill and hammer away at the parts of both bills that are unacceptable.
Yutsano
@Brachiator:
Jesus Tapdancing Christ. This could still put a massive kink in the filing season this year.
jl
@Brachiator: Yes, I knew that the Senate had it’s own bill. I admit guilt in being sloppy about the details of the legislation in each chamber.
Thanks for bringing up the retroactive provisions. I have not been following the fate of that part of it closely.
Roger Moore
@trollhattan:
Of course, since house prices don’t exist in a vacuum, that will have a big effect on the housing market in those areas. If people can’t afford as much house, housing prices will fall. That wouldn’t be such a terrible thing- housing prices are in a bubble again, at least in my area- but if they fall too far too fast, it will probably create Financial Crisis 2, Electric Boogaloo.
John Fremont
@schrodingers_cat: Or move in next to a fertilizer plant! No zoning! Yay!
Brachiator
@Yutsano:
They are insane, but not quite totally insane. Even if they pass something this year, most provisions would not kick in until after 2017. The current House bill would make 100% expensing of business assets effective September 27, 2017. Dates like this usually indicate a capitulation to somebody’s major donor. I call it “bags of money effective dates.”
If they had pushed for 2017 for everything, yeah, all kinds of chaos would be created, especially since Trump also wants to freeze or cut back the IRS budget, making it tougher for them to react to tax law changes. And with the crap about itemized deductions and SALT, a considerable number of folks might find that they had underpaid their estimates and now magically owed a penalty. Yeah, Congress might have built in some temporary relief, but it would have been a pain in the butt.
The way the GOP has approached this whole thing is typically desperate and foolish. And there is still more to come.
J R in WV
@Lee:
No, no, Middle Class Republicans earn $450,000 a year!
Fixed that for ya!
Brachiator
@Roger Moore:
The KPCC (89.3) recently did a good program on this, since California would be greatly affected by this. The folks on the panel predicted that house prices would not fall, in part because there would be a drop in new inventory brought on the market since the average home mortgage in many prime California areas already exceeds the amount where the House bill would limit some mortgage deductions. This might also cause people to stay in their homes, again pushing down supply and possibly keeping home prices high.
jl
@J R in WV: Actual Trump base middle and upper income voters will get very little, and large percentage of them will see effective tax increases after the first couple of years. Look in the middle and fourth quintile of income distribution. And many of them, despite their drawbacks, actually do put in work or actually run a business. They are not passive investors, heirs, so they do not get the real goodies for rich and upper income, so larger percentage of them will get hurt than appears in stats on percentage of tax payers in each quintile that see an effective tax increase.
Business owners and upper income professionals who can benefit from pass through provisions will benefit, though. Employees among them will not.
TenguPhule
@Brachiator:
We could quibble about that qualifier.
SgrAstar
@ArchTeryx: I did my graduate work in physics, and I loved it. I was in a great research group and actually loved the teaching element, as well. Different strokes…
KithKanan
@vhh: I figured it out, but it took me a bit since in my town CPSU normally means California Polytechnic State University (aka Cal Poly San Luis Obispo).
Adria McDowell
I was too stupid to get a tuition break for my program, but I’m only doing a master’s, so….
I had some veteran’s education benefits left over, so I used all that up. Talking with some of my fellow students, they still had to take loans out for their master’s, even with tuition breaks and research assistanceships (which, again, I was too dumb to receive- I’m still wondering why I got in…), and I feel terrible for them. This kind of tax shenanigans will keep them from pursuing a doctorate.
My husband’s job is contingent on having the tools to do they job, and last year, we were able to itemize some of his tool purchases. This bill would probably eliminate that.
Maybe he shouldn’t have voted for Harambe then.
J R in WV
@TenguPhule:
Well, actually, strip mining, which I’ve seen a lot of since it started about when I was born 60 odd years ago right in my neighborhood, isn’t nearly as profitable as these tax cuts would be for the filthy rich.
TenguPhule
@J R in WV: Same effect on the neighborhoods though.