Dear Pundit Friends, please stop attributing this D landslide in VA to "changing demographics". VA hasn't changed that much since last Nov. 8 (Hillary by 5%). The bigger explanation is a backlash to Trump and Trumpism, pure and simple. #VAGov
— Larry Sabato (@LarrySabato) November 8, 2017
ex-Bush WH aide Wehner:”If you’re suburban R House member, you’re terrified tonight. first sign of real wave, that Trump may damage not just country but their own prospects”
— John Harwood (@JohnJHarwood) November 8, 2017
Philip Bump, in the Washington Post — “Trump just made a bad night for Republicans much worse for himself”:
Ed Gillespie made a bet. By embracing the political priorities of President Trump, he figured, he could help bolster enthusiasm from Trump-supporting voters who had nearly blocked his nomination to be the Republican nominee for governor in Virginia. Those voters had apparently preferred Corey A. Stewart, a candidate who had internalized Trump’s politics in a way that Gillespie hadn’t. So, as Election Day approached, Gillespie ran ads highlighting immigration, “sanctuary cities” and gang violence, despite the fact that crime is much lower in Virginia than in most of the rest of the country…
On Tuesday night, the bottom fell out. Largely on the strength of an unexpected surge in turnout, Northam won easily. Expected to prevail by a bit over three points, he’ll end up with a victory of at least twice that size. After a close loss in a Senate race in 2014, Gillespie lost again, this time by much more.
Trump wasted no time in distancing himself from Gillespie, enjoying the spaciousness of his now-280-character tweets….
We’ve noted before that Trump has an insurance premium against any calls for his impeachment. His popularity with Republicans has slipped since the beginning of his presidency, but he’s still very popular with them, particularly more conservative members of his party. (Per Gallup, more than 9 in 10 conservative Republicans approve of Trump.) Because Republican Party primaries see an overrepresentation of conservatives, that meant that Republicans eager to win reelection to Congress were less likely to turn on the president.
What happened after those primaries, though, was anyone’s guess. Tuesday night offered some sense of what that might be.
Trump’s tweet distancing himself from Gillespie sugarcoats the election in a way that may make Trump feel better but probably isn’t fooling anyone on Capitol Hill… But it also does something very dangerous for Trump right now. It shows, yet again, that he isn’t loyal to his political partners.…
Think of the message that Trump has sent to Republicans. Stand with him on policy and have him bad-mouth what you passed. Embrace his endorsement and see a loss followed by Trump playing down his support. Embrace his endorsement and his politics, and see a loss followed by actual criticism. These are all one-offs — but politics generally suffers from a small sample size from which to draw conclusions, and no one spends more time trying to draw conclusions than politicians…It’s unlikely that many Republicans worried about next November will be convinced by Trump’s argument. Instead, they’re likely to take another lesson: Trump can’t deliver a victory for you when you’re trailing, and neither can Trumpism. (In fact, there’s every reason to think that Trump was the liability that his poll numbers would suggest, with Gillespie doing fine in western Virginia but getting beaten badly in more-Democratic Northern Virginia.) Nor will Trump stand with you should things go south.
If, next summer, the question of Trump’s fate as president is raised, how might Republicans in center-right districts be expected to evaluate that decision?…
They'll probably convince themselves voters are angry they havent thrown enough people off healthcare or redistributed enough wealth upwards
— Dan Rosenheck (@DanRosenheck) November 8, 2017
Republicans on election day 2016 vs. election day 2017 pic.twitter.com/nOs02OQoDb
— Sal Gentile (@salgentile) November 8, 2017
Mary G
They seem, as stupid as it is, to be convincing themselves that all will be well if they only cut taxes. I kind of hope they get as far as a House bill and a Senate Bill they can’t reconcile, to give them the rope to hang themselves without actually hurting people.
craigie
They will pass something, and they will hurt people. That’s what they do. That’s who they are.
NorthLeft12
@Mary G: Unfortunately, I think there are a lot of people that will point to the $300 tax cut that they will receive and be very satisfied. Those people could care less about the deficit, just like the GOP.
When they do think about the deficit, they will blame it on government waste which they define as any government expenditures directed towards programs they don’t use/value/understand or that go to “those people”.
Redshift
@Mary G: Hmm, I don’t think most of them think all will be well if they do, they’re just convinced it will be even worse if they don’t.
Which may well be true, but as with health care, they’ll never figure out that the real reason they’re damned if they do and damned if they don’t is that they made ludicrous promises with no basis in reality.
piratedan
yeah, that’s the real issue, not that we’re looting the treasury and burning down the very institutions that our country runs on, no, the real issue is that the treasonous bastard we helped to elect (by any and all means, legit or not) could cost us our phony baloney jobs here!
This fucking administration has more in common with the LePetomaine administration from Blazing Saddles than anything in our country’s history. Hell, who knew that Bannon would use Hedley LeMarr as a guide to governance.
jl
Chye-Ching Huang on twitter (@dashching) has some very nice analysis, and very informative and precisely aimed graphics on the GOP rich person’s tax slash plan
https://twitter.com/dashching
Duane
@Redshift: Rep. Collins of NY let the cat out of the bag when he said his donors want their tax giveaway done. Thats the only “voters” they care about.
Mnemosyne
LA Juicers, opiejeannie is asking us to just pick a damn place for our Sunday Pasadena meetup already. I like Lucky Baldwin’s Trappiste over near PCC, but Ruckus prefers to stay near Old Town.
CaseyL
The GOP runs on mega-donor dollars, particularly the Koch brothers. The Kochs have already said that unless they get their tax cuts, they’re not funding any campaigns. The GOP stands to lose $400 million in campaign contributions, and that’s just from the Kochs – they might lose more, from more multi-billionaires, like Mercer and Adelson.
The GOP believe Koch money keeps them in office; and they believe they’ll be primaried if they don’t do their masters’ bidding.
That’s all they care about. If the country goes to hell, it just makes it more important they have access to lots of ready cash. If the environment goes to hell, which it will, they want to be sure they have enough money and enough connections to create oases for themselves and their families. They have every intention of living like rich crime lords, in guarded compounds, while the rest of us live on dirt. THAT is the GOP’s vision for America.
jl
@CaseyL: ” while the rest of us live on dirt. ”
As long as it isn’t subsidized dirt that should go to the makers, but the damn government takes and gives to the takers, I guess we can have a few bites.
opiejeanne
@Mnemosyne: Thanks for bring this up tonight.
We’re bringing a friend who is Balloon Juice curious. We’re staying with her that night and will head for home the next morning. We’ll go wherever you say, Lucky Baldwin’s Trappiste sounds …. is that where the Bob’s Big Boy was? The one we were not supposed to cruise on Saturday night when we were in high school?
opiejeanne
@opiejeanne: And why is a Lucky Baldwin pub serving British food? He was born in Ohio.
patrick II
Jimmy Kimmel is having a good time trolling republicans and their dislike for Obamacare. In Tuesday night’s opening monologue he encouraged everyone to go to healthcare.gov to sign up for “Trumpcare”. The then described all the benefits of Obamacare like no worries about pre-existing conditions while continuing to call it “Trumpacare” , extolling the advantages having affordable health insurance from the government web site. Wednesday night he read a group of tweets from Trump fans thanking him for acknowledging how good “Trumpcare” is and extolling president Trump for his wonderful healthcare plan.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@opiejeanne: All sounds good to me, I’ll have to see where it is and where to park the Prius.
OzarkHillbilly
@patrick II: Easier than shooting fish in a barrel.
Bruce K
If the GOP’s attempt at tax “reform” founders, and GOP incumbents on Capitol Hill start feeling some real heat … is that the point at which the cheeto-in-chief becomes an obvious net liability* to the GOP?
*We all know he’s a liability to the GOP, a disaster in both the short and the long term for the country, but what’s it going to take for them to realize that he’s a net liability not just to the entire country, but to them?
OzarkHillbilly
@Bruce K: At the point they come to realize that winning the primary means losing the general. (obviously the hard core districts won’t waiver in their stupidity) Watch the retirements.
?BillinGlendaleCA
A time lapse from the Pasadena Freeway overpass looking towards downtown LA.
OzarkHillbilly
@?BillinGlendaleCA: I like.
rikyrah
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
Wow. Love it ?
Cermet
As this election proves, it is ONLY about turn out (yes, workers/money helped this part a great deal); dems and dem learning independents out number thugs and the stupid. As Mueller continues to generate such nice and helpful news, and the small handed orange fart cloud continues to be stupid, these intelligent voters will get fired up for the mid-terms and show the thugs what being out-numbered means; while they will continue to hold power in far too many states due solely to gerrymander, they will now know that 2020 means they lose more ground AND the white house.
Amir Khalid
@Bruce K:
It’s interesting, isn’t it, what this says about Republican Congressfolk and their priorities: a President who is harmful to the country is a less urgent problem than one who is harmful to their political careers.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@OzarkHillbilly:
@rikyrah: Thanks, next time I’ll probably use a shorter shutter speed and higher ISO to get less traffic trace.
p.a.
@?BillinGlendaleCA: @OzarkHillbilly: @rikyrah:
Did you see those UFOs in the vid!!! Roswell ROSWELL
different-church-lady
The man does not have political “partners”; partner implies give and take, or mutual benefit. Trump doesn’t do mutual — it’s zero sum and he must win. These so-called political “partners” are actually nothing more than political tools.
This is the deal they made with the devil, and they still haven’t figured a way out.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@p.a.: @p.a.: That’s not a UFO, that’s the Goodrich blimp.
p.a.
Awwwwww… they got to Bill…
randy khan
@OzarkHillbilly:
The primary and the general are Scylla and Charybdis for them.
low-tech cyclist
GOP priorities:
Screwing America: no biggie
Screwing their re-election prospects: terrified!
low-tech cyclist
@randy khan:
Yeppers. After going far enough to the right to win a GOP primary, it’s gonna be damn tough, most places, to convince your median voter that you aren’t nuts.
catclub
@craigie:
I think CHIP renewal and DACA will just be forgotten. No bill, no help, harm.
Shana
@NorthLeft12: One of Al Franken’s books has a chapter with a professional woman having a conversation with a waitress at a diner talking about tax cuts and what will result. She keeps asking the waitress about what government services effect her, roads, schools, etc. and telling her that her $300 tax cut would be eaten up by all the extra things the woman would have to pay for that government currently pays for. As I recall (it’s been years since I read it) a lovely and succinct explanation of what your taxes go toward as I’ve read.
Parfigliano
Trump doesnt care about anything other then himself and Ivanka…..inappropriately.
marc
@piratedan: Work work work work work work work!
Debg
@Shana: it’s in Lies and the Lying Liars who Tell Them. Great book.
No One You Know
@CaseyL: I did some research for my novel yesterday on serfs and peasants. Eerily prescient. I am less worried about being “relevant” and more worries about being just another Jeremiah-!