(Punch Cartoon by Bud Handelsman*)
There appears to be a soft coup going on in Zimbabwe. Specifically no shots have been fired and no one has been killed (as far as I can tell from the reporting). There are few if any troops on the street. Mugabe has been confined at home and there is a push to remove his wife from the chain of succession. And the recently ousted Vice President, Emerson Mnangagwa, has returned to Zimbabwe.
One of the ways that you know a coup is happening is:
Subtle indication there may be a coup: your news anchor is suddenly this guy, telling you it’s totally not a coup. pic.twitter.com/lKOX5uQGnW
— Carl Fridh Kleberg (@FridhKleberg) November 15, 2017
From The Guardian:
Robert Mugabe remains in detention at his home in Zimbabwe more than 12 hours after the military declared on national television that it had temporarily taken control of the country to “target criminals” around the head of state.
The move by the armed forces appears to have resolved a bitter battle to succeed the 93-year-old president, which had pitted his former vice-president, Emmerson Mnangagwa, against Mugabe’s wife, Grace.
Mnangagwa was reported to have returned to Zimbabwe on Tuesday evening from South Africa, where he fled last week after being stripped of his office by Mugabe in an apparent attempt to clear Grace Mugabe’s path to power.
The military takeover comes two days after the army chief – flanked by other senior officers – said he was prepared to “step in” to end turmoil in the ruling Zanu-PF party.
It is likely to signal the departure from power of the world’s oldest leader within days, weeks or at most months.
One high-profile opposition leader said there was “a lot of talking going on”, with the army reaching out to them to discuss the formation of a transitional government after Mugabe steps down.
Negotiations had been ongoing for several months with “certain people within the army”, a second senior opposition official said.
The official said Mugabe would resign this week and be replaced by Mnangagwa, with opposition leaders taking posts as vice-president and prime minister. There was no independent confirmation of his claim.
In its other reporting, The Guardian has also confirmed that Grace Mugabe has fled Zimbabwe for Namibia.
The questions now are will this remain largely non-violent and can a government emerge from the soft coup that is considered to have at least de facto legitimacy even if it doesn’t have de jure legitimacy?
* This is one of my favorite Punch Cartoons. Handelsman did a great job capturing the insane type of announcements often made when a coup is actually undertaken.
TenguPhule
If there is any justice in this world, she’ll get what she deserves.
And get it good and hard.
Ohio Mom
This is off-topic but I just saw that Richard Cordray resigned from that federal consumer protection board — I hope this means he’s going to run for Ohio governor. Please, please, I want a Democratic candidate who can win.
Major Major Major Major
OK, that tweet made me lol.
@Ohio Mom: Of course, this means Il Douche will appoint somebody to fill it…
Spanky
Say! We have that exact same problem!
US military need not apply, though, please.
Adam L Silverman
@TenguPhule: Maybe you’d like to combine things with the previous post and explain that this should, perhaps, be a 2nd Amendment type of solution?
schrodingers_cat
@Spanky: That’s exactly I was thinking, what is the probability of a coup here. Thought experiment: What will the generals do after they have wrested the football from you know who, as many are hoping that they will.
khead
Re: UCLA, Trump, etc.
I, for one, applaud our POTUS for taking the time to secure the release of a bunch of shoplifters before leaving Jina. Once upon a time I stole the Coors beer banners from the local beer distributor and I am pretty sure that GWB41 would’ve left me hanging if I had been caught.
But her emails!!!
How about the speculation that the entire thing was orchestrated by China?
Immanentize
It is not a coup! It is not a coup! We are just safeguarding the President and his wife from, well, the country. And vice versa….
trollhattan
Mugabe has been their Trump since 1980, so it’s not like this is necessarily a bad thing for the country but nobody can assure he won’t be replaced with somebody/thing even worse. Good luck, Zimbabwe!
Yutsano
@Major Major Major Major: And the Republicans will sail his* nomination through. Because nothing would make them happier than to cripple/slow kill the CFPB.
*Pretty confident in this pronoun.
Roger Moore
@Immanentize:
You’re the coup!
TenguPhule
@Adam L Silverman: I think you mixed me up with a different commentor.
Shooting is much too good for her.
I want her worked till her hands bleed and fed exactly what the average person got to eat under the Muga’s rule. A handful of cornmeal a day for the rest of her short life.
Adam L Silverman
@Ohio Mom: That appears to be the working theory.
Major Major Major Major
@Yutsano: No filibuster for executive nominees, right? Otherwise we could eat up three precious legislative days…
Betty Cracker
@trollhattan: Yeah. Went to school with a guy from there, who eventually returned. Things are pretty bad there, from what I hear. Here’s hoping it gets better.
TenguPhule
@schrodingers_cat:
“Why do we need to listen to these civilian bozos again? We can just TAKE what we want! After all, who’s gonna stop us?”
Adam L Silverman
@schrodingers_cat: There will not be a military coup here.
NotMax
Local reporting.
And a live update page.
germy
Calouste
Pro tip for the Mugabes: authoritarianism is almost by definition male-chauvinistic, and the number of non-royal female dictators in history is pretty much zero.
The Moar You Know
@Immanentize: Zimbabwe has needed safeguarding from Mugabe for a long, long time. But I don’t think this is going to be the result of this coup.
President-to-be-installed Mnangagwa better be in good with the army (sure looks that way) or he’s not going to be president for long. Of course, he really is inheriting the world’s shittiest job. I’d like to be dictator just as much as the next guy, but Zimbabwe is too much of a mess for that offer to have any appeal at all.
joel hanes
The caption for that cartoon is the official slogan of Obsidian Wings, a historically-great blog with a moderated comment section.
I’d never seen the actual cartoon before.
Adam L Silverman
@But her emails!!!: Given the military leaderships ties to the PRC, it would not surprise me if they were notified ahead of time. Or that they provided tacit approval.
schrodingers_cat
@Adam L Silverman: Rome was a Republic once. I did not think that the current President would be elected. Never I told everyone with 100% confidence.
ETA: Hoping you are right, of course, but I don’t have the confidence that I did before last November.
germy
I was telling my wife today, I know we complain about Bush, drumpf, etc., but can you imagine 37 years of them?
Mugabe was planning on putting his wife in charge.
Here, it would be like drumpf ruled for three decades and then gave the presidency to one of his sons.
Yarrow
I heard this morning they call her “Gucci Grace” for her expensive tastes and lavish spending of the country’s money. I saw a photo of her and she does not look anywhere close in age to her husband who is 93. She could be in charge for a long time if she were to take power.
schrodingers_cat
@germy: Not sons, Ivanka. MSM joints are already pimping her as the first female president.
Immanentize
@The Moar You Know:
I actually never aspired so high. I just want to be the Minister of Information….
germy
@Yarrow: She is 52.
Adam L Silverman
@TenguPhule: Works for me.
schrodingers_cat
@germy: African Moore!
TenguPhule
@Yarrow: She’s 52.
germy
@schrodingers_cat: Certainly he’s got more than one wife? Moore looks on in envy.
Immanentize
@germy: I agree. It was not surprising to me that both Ceausescu and his wife ended up, well, not alive after the revolution. Then, the first act the new government took was to ban the death penalty…. Nice touch, I always thought.
schrodingers_cat
@germy: Rs want to be Mugabe when they grow up.
TenguPhule
@schrodingers_cat:
Corrected for Accuracy.
We all know they don’t grow up.
Just out.
NotMax
Dolt 45: “Moog-abe? Any relation to that Jap?”
Major Major Major Major
@Immanentize: I’d settle for being regime librarian.
germy
@schrodingers_cat:
Did you see Roy Moore’s lawyer interviewed by Ali Velshi? A stunning performance.
sm*t cl*de
Adam appreciates early-1980s Handelsman cartoons, this is really why I respect him.
Yarrow
@germy: @TenguPhule: Thanks.
@schrodingers_cat: That’s kind of what I thought when I saw her. She looks so young compared to him.
Major Major Major Major
@schrodingers_cat: not to be confused with African Moors.
Chyron HR
@trollhattan:
No, Mugabe is their Obama, because of all the, uh, hyperinflation. Yeah, that’s the ticket.
Yarrow
@schrodingers_cat:
Not gonna happen.
Immanentize
@Major Major Major Major: Very sneaky — archivists write all the histories….
germy
rikyrah
@Ohio Mom:
I am hoping Kay will have news for us on this front.
Yarrow
@rikyrah: Kay posted about this in one of the threads downstairs. She’s excited but since he hasn’t officially declared or anything it’s just buzz right now.
NotMax
@Major Major Major Major
Not necessarily an enclave of serenity. See: The Name of the Rose.
;)
Adam L Silverman
@joel hanes:
Major Major Major Major
@Immanentize: I guess the ALA code of ethics wouldn’t apply so much in this situation, would it?
rikyrah
That was a funny tweet
Brachiator
Mugabe’s wife supposedly was behind the ouster of an earlier vice-president. And there had recently been an attempt to purge military veterans, perhaps in an attempt to head off a coup.
The Zanu-PF party seemed to be solidly behind Mugabe and his wife. Don’t know if there will be a hard push back against the military.
GregB
Word is Bobby Mugabe will be represented Bob Loblaw, Esq. at the Hague.
schrodingers_cat
@germy: I am not near a TV right now. Gist?
rikyrah
@germy:
Ahhh……explains a lot….
Adam L Silverman
@sm*t cl*de: I actually used this in a briefing deck on low intensity warfare once.
TenguPhule
@rikyrah: Which means when he was 41, she was just being born.
GregB
@Yarrow:
She likely won’t be taking charge anytime soon. She’s reportedly fled the country.
Spanky
OK. That tears it. I demand to see her long-form birth certificate.
Another Scott
The BBC has reporting (and audio this morning) of gunfire and explosions, but it seems to have been isolated or restricted in duration.
Cheers,
Scott.
Adam L Silverman
@schrodingers_cat:
Adam L Silverman
@Spanky: She’s 52, I got it wrong and deleted the comment.
NotMax
@Immanentize
Ironic, innit, that historians disagree on the precise wording Churchill used about who writes the histories?
Couple of other relevant citations. First, George Orwell.
“The history of a nation is, unfortunately, too easily written as the history of its dominant class.”
– Kwame Nkrumah
germy
I read somewhere that drumpf is holding off on offering an opinion on Moore until after he hears what hannity has to say. No joke.
Major Major Major Major
@NotMax: also archivists aren’t historians.
schrodingers_cat
@Adam L Silverman: ::Headdesk::
laura
@Major Major Major Major: nah, it will be another position that will not be filled.
Adam L Silverman
@schrodingers_cat: Yep. It’s actually worse than his interaction with Don Lemon on CNN last week. I really think the guy is on drugs. On top of that if I saw him near a school or a play ground I’d call the police.
Major Major Major Major
@laura: Won’t that just leave one of Obama’s deputies in charge?
Adam L Silverman
Anyone got any idea what the President is actually doing with this address about his trip? Other than he needed an ego boost so the staff arranged to stick him in front of the cameras so he could break his arm patting himself on the back taking credit for things he largely has no control over, no involvement with, or both.
germy
@schrodingers_cat:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/11/15/roy-moores-bizarre-attorney-steps-forward-to-offer-bizarre-defense-of-roy-moore/?hpid=hp_hp-more-top-stories_fix-moore-attorney-230pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.bb318cb3af4e
Adam L Silverman
And he’s snuffing really badly and starting to slur his words.
schrodingers_cat
@germy: I am not Pakistani or Muslin but this is my anecdata on this issue
Spanky
@Adam L Silverman: How come no one has gotten the bright idea to stick him in front of a bank of cameras and then not broadcast it?
He’s happy, we’re happy.
germy
@schrodingers_cat:
So the lawyer babbling about arranged marriages really doesn’t make any sense.
His letter is full of typos and bad grammar, so at least he’s got that going for him.
Adam L Silverman
@schrodingers_cat: I hope you’re not a poly-cotton blend…
Adam L Silverman
@Spanky: I do not know.
Tom Levenson
@trollhattan: Mnangagwa is no prince, alas. So yeah, it’s not obvious Zimbabwe is going to become adequately governed anytime soon.
schrodingers_cat
@Adam L Silverman: Traditionally, Muslim artisans make the best muslin in India. No joke.
Adam L Silverman
@schrodingers_cat: I had heard that.
schrodingers_cat
deleted wrong thread.
glory b
@germy: Yes! Stephanie Rhule for the win! abovethelaw blog gave her the white ally award!
schrodingers_cat
@germy: Not an expert on arranged marriages or a fan, but Moore’s lawyer is talking out of his ass. Arranged marriages have evolved and people have a say in who they want to marry or not.
Gelfling 545
@The Moar You Know: Reminds me of what we say about being superintendent of our school district. Anyone who wants the job is, by definition, nuts.
Hovercraft
My Mother spent most of today calling people in Harare and Bulawayo, everyone is pleased so far and pretty calm. They feel that Mnanagwa gave all the necessary assurances to South Africa and China, (the Chinese basically own Zimbabwe, that’s how Mugabe kept himself afloat with all the sanctions). People are nervous, but figure it can hardly get any worse, and maybe they’ll get better. Fingers crossed, its such a beautiful country, and they deserve so much better. Pretty much everyone expects there to be very little changed when they wake up tomorrow, they are glad that at the very least Grace and her children will not be taking over, the new crew may be part of the same corrupt ruling party, but they may lead the country in a new direction. I guess we’ll see.
MattF
@germy: Trump is a coward. Period.
In other news, I’ll note that the Army guys appearing on TV all look well-dressed and well-fed. I’m sure they did OK under Mugabe, and I’m sure they’ll do well under his successor. I don’t actually have any other predictions.
Adam L Silverman
Senator Rubio trolls the President:
MattF
@Hovercraft: Welcome back. I hope you’re right.
Tim C.
@Adam L Silverman: Damn it…. now I almost have a slight inclination to not completely hate Marco Rubio.