I have a question for you…First off, it’s clear that if/when Trump fires Mueller and pardons people, conservative media and elected Republicans will stand by him. Bobo telegraphed that a few months ago:
But even if you took a paragon of modern presidents — a contemporary Abraham Lincoln — and you directed a democratically unsupervised, infinitely financed team of prosecutors at him and gave them power to subpoena his staff and look under any related or unrelated rock in an attempt to bring him down, there’s a pretty good chance you could spur even this modern paragon to want to fight back.
You and I know that David Brooks is just Steve Bannon after a shit, shave, and shower, but I tend to think his reaction — to think it’s ok for Trump to terminate the investigation — will be typical of conservative and centrist pundits. Don’t get me wrong, I think Trump will take a bit of a hit politically, but not a big one. He’s already very unpopular anyway. And I think that after he does this, Dems will take the House.
So here’s my question: if the New York Attorney General or Manhattan DA (who’s already investigating Manafort) indict Eric or Don Jr. or Jared, what happens? Do they refuse to go to trial? How crazy could the conflict get? Legally, there’s nothing Trump an do about it. But how big a constitutional crisis could we get into here?
I hope I don’t sound like Louise Mensch here. It doesn’t seem that unlikely that something like this will happen at some point.
Update. I don’t know why some of you think this post and others like it are negative. I think that if the Russia probe implodes in this way, Democrats will make gains in midterm elections. The best case scenario for the next three years is that Republicans stand by Trump while Democrats rack up victories in the House, Senate, state houses, and ultimately presidency.
TenguPhule
Well, two out of three.
Hunter Gathers
He gets impeached and starts his Race War.
TenguPhule
Non-extradition countries.
You mean besides the oodles that we’re already in?
How about, who gets to arrest a person illegally occupying the white house and how do they do that?
oatler.
@Hunter Gathers: He’ll start it before impeachment. He’s got the Manson in him.
Bobby Thomson
Well, you haven’t completely made up concepts that don’t exist in American jurisprudence, in an article supposedly based on leaks from Mueller’s leakless investigation.
Mnemosyne
I’m not the only one who sees this as a confession that Brooksie realizes that all of the bullshit thrown at the Clintons was totally fake, right?
beef
People here seem to shit on Louise Mensch. It seems to me that she’s gotten points wrong at times, but she’s been way out ahead on the big picture: Trump colluded with the Russians, there’s damning signals intelligence of it, and Mueller’s using a SCIF to direct his investigation.
Hunter Gathers
@oatler.: The NYT will lament the upcoming Race War and blame it on Obama.
Doug!
@beef:
Uh,
Villago Delenda Est
Brooks needs to be in a tumbrel right after Donald’s.
Hunter Gathers
@Doug!: The death penalty won’t have any effect on a Lich like Bannon
Butthurt Jordan Trombone (fka XTPD)
@Villago Delenda Est: Too easy. Woodchipper.
@beef: “Marshall of the Supreme Court,” anyone?
And I would say I deserve credit for hating Louise Mensch way before it was cool – since I saw her on that Real Time With Bill Maher episode some time after Brexit.
Roger Moore
@TenguPhule:
If it’s clear that they are illegally occupying it, e.g. they’re impeached and convicted or lose an election, then everyone ignores their orders and the White House is effectively put under siege by not allowing any food in. If they really want to push things, they shut off the water and electricity, too. The big question is what happens when a lot of people are convinced the occupation is illegal but there is a substantial minority of dead-enders who refuse to accept it, e.g. there’s an election where the loser and his party refuses to accept the results. That’s how civil wars happen.
JR
@Hunter Gathers: you have to crush his skull
AD&D 2nd edition
DCrefugee
One of your best lines lately, Doug. Keep it up…
B.B.A.
I’m going to say polonium.
TenguPhule
@JR: Phylactery
/D&D nitpick
Doug!
@DCrefugee:
Thanks, I was proud of it.
dmsilev
Don Sr. might be able to play a “the President is above state law” card, but that wouldn’t matter for his spawn and spawn-spouses. If they’re indicted and don’t show up, well that’s when warrants for arrests are issued. More likely, a team of expensive lawyers and conservative media hacks try to squid-ink-cloud the issue.
B.B.A.
@Roger Moore: If the loser’s party controls Congress, they can refuse to certify the results. I was actually afraid of this before the 2016 election, because a continued Republican Congress seemed assured and they weren’t going to let Satan In A Pantsuit enter office that easily.
beef
@Doug!:
That doesn’t really answer my point. We have no evidence pro/con the validity of that statement, only priors. (I wouldn’t bet on it at this point, but it’s not hard to think of ways Bannon could get in trouble of this form. His company Cambridge Analytica, for example, might have used stolen voter data, the fruits of espionage, to improve their propaganda targeting.)
But we do have partial data on Mike Flynn’s & Flynn Jr’s legal troubles and on Paul Manafort’s. Mensch has, as I said, generally had the right big picture on the things we can test her on. I would bet she’s been fed occasional good information by someone in the UK security establishment.
Redshift
I dunno, Trump has a long history of wimping out when the chips are down. They may think they’re tough guys, but I think they’ll be deer in the headlights if indictments actually come down. At most, they might try to flee the country, but I doubt they can even do that competently.
Patricia Kayden
@Hunter Gathers: Who is going to impeach him? Republicans control Congress. If they get their tax cut (for the rich) through and he signs it, he’s golden with Republicans and their donors.
different-church-lady
@Doug!: Never good for a journalist when the sources start trolling you.
schrodingers_cat
I am sick of these losery hypotheticals, they are not as clever as you seem to think. You seem to do a variation of this thread at least once every week.
Repatriated
@Patricia Kayden: …or an expendable scapegoat.
Once they pass the tax giveaway, it’ll be safe to throw him under the bus for everything Russian and pointedly not look too closely or look back at all.
different-church-lady
Does any of this happen before or after North Korea nukes the White House?
Roger Moore
@B.B.A.:
They’ll need to have at least a superficially plausible justification for doing so, or they’re going to lose their legitimacy. The only time we’ve encountered anything like this was after the 1876 election, when the Republicans had a damn good justification for refusing to accept the results from Southern states that had plainly denied blacks the right to vote. That’s not to say today’s Republicans would never try, but it would basically end any pretense of democratic government in this country.
Mike in DC
@Bobby Thomson:
You’re also not a triple agent uo to nothing but fuckery and bullshit. So there’s that.
If Snyderman indicts, he gets an arrest warrant issued. Pretty sure full faith and credit and reciprocity means DC police go effect the arrest if necessary. So unless they hole up in the White House or flee the country, they get hauled before the NY courts.
If Trump attempts the firing/mass pardons shtick:
1. Instant, massive protests in the streets and civil disobedience in the halls of congress.
2. The Democrats sweep into the House and likely the Senate too.
3. Mueller’s investigative files don’t just disappear, and if the investigation is shut down, he and his staff are free to give interviews and talk about their findings.
4. The non conservative media will recognize that something shocking and unprecedented happened and will report it, properly, as a constitutional crisis, whether Congress acts or not.
5. Members of the intel community conclude that the risk of punishment is just the price they have to pay to save the country they love. Leaks of raw intel will happen under this scenario.
Basically, a lot of stakeholders will make their displeasure known, and apply all the pressure they can to redress the crisis.
B.B.A.
@Roger Moore: “RIGGED!” and “FAKE NEWS!” are enough of a justification to the 27% of the country that votes in Republican primaries.
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
Was it over when Drumpf bombed Pearl Harbor?
Repatriated
@Mike in DC:
And not just US intel agencies, either.
Roger Moore
FWIW, it appears that it would have to be the New York Attorney General, since the Manhattan DA has already killed felony fraud charges against Kushner and Ivanka.
beef
@Mike in DC:
Members of the US intel community may face punishment for leaking such info. Members of other countries intel communities might in fact be ordered to do it, if their leaders judge the security threat is serious enough. It’s fairly clear that the US isn’t the only nation which has had eyes and ears on Trump’s Russian friends.
JPL
@Hunter Gathers: In case this hasn’t been mentioned, who would impeach him? Chuck and Nancy?
Tenar Arha
@beef: Anyone who says “Marshall of the Supreme Court” has so little understanding of how our government works that she’s “generally had the right big picture” is an accident or simply changing her position just enough by moving the goal posts to pretend she was right.
No Drought No More
My Prediction: We’ll wake up one morning and find that Trump has issued pardons- including one for himself- and resigned. Mike Pence will have resigned, too, although he’ll trade his succession to the presidency for a promise not to prosecute, rather than accept a pardon. At that point David Brooks will orgasm himself to death in praise of Paul Ryan and the New Improved Republican Party, and the NY Times will hire Newt Gingrich to replace him.
Trump’s craven testimony in the deposition his former biographer forced him to accede to convinces me we’ll be rid of him that suddenly. The man can bullshit and act and speak any way he damn well pleases, but not in a court of law, not without being convicted. And, as that deposition proved, the vicious motherfucker knows it all too well.
Chip Daniels
@Redshift:
He’ll fly to the Virgin Islands and declare himself to be beyond the reach of American law.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Redshift: I am with Redshift on this. Doug is giving Trump can company way to much credit – going by Trump’s record he will take the stupidest possible course of action.
TenguPhule
@No Drought No More:
This one I’m confident is never going to happen.
Resigning would be an admission that Trump is a loser.
And he’d rather kill everyone around him then admit that.
chopper
@Butthurt Jordan Trombone (fka XTPD):
oh god, I had forgotten about that one. lolz.
TenguPhule
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
Bomb New Jersey?
Hunter Gathers
@Patricia Kayden: @JPL: I don’t know, Kang and Kodos?
?BillinGlendaleCA
@JPL: Nancy, the Senate doesn’t impeach.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Chip Daniels:
You Sir have won the Internetz for the day.
Repatriated
@Repatriated: Also, regarding this:
There’s always the Sen. Gravel Pentagon Papers maneuver — dump the docs into the Congressional Record.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@TenguPhule:
Waking up one morning to find out Trump forced Banon, the Trump kids and the rest to drink poison while wearing MAGA T-shirts before killing himself sounds all to believable.
moeman
The entire tRUmp clan will seek refugee status in Canada.
Roger Moore
@B.B.A.:
But, as is regularly pointed out here, it’s necessary to win over more than the 27% to govern the country. If all the media in the country announces that Candidate A won in a landslide, the people who voted for Candidate A are not going to take it lying down when the dipshits in Congress refuse to accept that and certify that Candidate B is the actual winner. They’re going to be faced with massive resistance, and some of that resistance will come from federal employees whose job it is to implement the decisions Congress and Candidate B will try to push through.
The key thing to understand is that a government like ours depends on the cooperation, or at least acquiescence, of the population to get anything done. People are willing to go along after losing an election, even if it’s grudging, because that’s how the system is supposed to work. They aren’t going to cooperate the same way after an election is transparently stolen, and the whole system will fail when they do everything they can to throw sand in the gears.
debbie
The paragon, having respect for the institutions of this government, might fight back, but he wouldn’t scheme to destroy them. Besides, Schneiderman is tough enough to stand up to all of them.
TenguPhule
@Roger Moore: 27% active resistance would also ensure the opposite is true.
They can’t win. But they can make us all lose.
Kathleen
@Hunter Gathers: Cue NYT pensive, wistful photograph of Nazi armed with assault rifle staring out the window.
JMG
If Congress refused to accept the results of an election, the public would have every moral right to lynch the members who refused it.
rk
How do they refuse to go to trial? I know they’re corrupt SOBs, but they don’t have any choices if they are charged with a crime. Are the New York cops going to refuse to arrest them. I haven’t ever heard anyone “refuse to go to trial”. If you’re rich you hire the best lawyers and make deals and yes get off very lightly. But Trumpers are, if nothing cheap, and their lawyers seem mediocre. Trump probably will pardon everyone and fire Muller, but I doubt if his brats or him refusing to go to trial will do anything.
JR
@Roger Moore: not exactly lacking in precedent (e.g. caesar, napoleon, napoleon iii)
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
The
New YorkNazi Times will be pissed.Bobby Thomson
@beef:
That Trump was colluding with the Russians? Shit, anyone without their heads up their asses saw that by summer 2016. She’s a crackpot. If she were American she’d be a LaRouchie.
Baud
That people are still following Mensch does not give me hope.
Baud
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch:
When Bill Clinton was president….
I think I know how the NYT will report it.
West of the Rockies (been a while)
Kind of a shitty news day… Moore is said to be leading once more in Redneckia, tax bill may be gaining traction in Congress, the court is siding thus far with Lump’s pick for the Consumer Protection agency…
And in further sad news out of D.C., Jared Kushner was found alive in the West Wing.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud: The NYT is garbage.
Baud
@?BillinGlendaleCA: I’m pleased to see more people recognizing that fact.
geg6
I don’t know if you’re trolling us or what, Doug, but I agree with those who have had it with the relentless negativity. Things are bad enough without our own people preemptively throwing in the towel. As for myself, I plan to continue resisting and part of that means believing that they won’t win unless we let them.
Omnes Omnibus
@geg6: I recently received an email from a long-time commenter who decided that he needed to walk away from B-J because it was causing problems with his depression treatment. He didn’t want to GBCW the blog, but he did want someone to know that he was okay but just couldn’t be around any more. That’s gotta say something.
Baud
@Omnes Omnibus: I can appreciate that.
Mike in DC
Trump is telling people that he expects to be exonerated by the end of the year. His attorney suggested things could wrap up in January.
debbie
@Mike in DC:
After consulting with Trump’s doctor, right?
James E. Powell
@Omnes Omnibus:
I feel that way quite often.
I probably delete before posting five or six comments for every one I post because I can’t seem to shake either my rage or my despair. I fear that I’ve become so tiresome that I’m in everyone’s pie filter. This place, LG&M, and following Norm Ornstein on twitter are the only political sources I read anymore. And starting to believe that even that is too much.
geg6
@Omnes Omnibus:
I can relate. This isn’t making my quest to quit smoking any easier, I can tell you. I come here in the hope of support, both personal and with the bigger picture. The negativity makes it all worse, not better. I’d much rather talk about the thousands of women (and men) who are running for office since the Women’s March and the local groups that have sprung up. Let’s channel our anxiety and do something positive with it. How about a post soliciting stories about what we are doing locally? Just once. Good news we can use.
Villago Delenda Est
@moeman: And they’ll be arrested and deported back to the US to face trial. And harsher sentences than they originally faced.
debbie
@geg6:
If you’re still not smoking, that’s quite an achievement. Congratulations!
Omnes Omnibus
@geg6:
I agree. OTOH, have fun picturing racist assholes from many countries head’s exploding because Harry Windsor is marrying a proudly biracial woman. Sometimes, the little things are all we have.
debbie
@Omnes Omnibus:
Even better, he refuses to invite Trump to the wedding!
eemom
I’ve been trying to be less, um, contentious to FPers posting bullshit, but fuck it. We’re all fucked anyway.
Remember all your numerous posts and brilliant theories about how the repubs were gonna impeach Obama circa 2013? Boy, was that some well spent time and energy.
I will agree that the republican congress won’t do jack shit if trump fires mueller. But assuming that the rest of the country will follow suit is accomplishing WHAT, exactly?
I hate to be the one to break it to you, but Brooks is a lot less important to, like, anything, than he is to you.
Snarki, child of Loki
Perhaps Trump could get Mueller fired.
But there’s not a thing that Trump can do to stop the Grand Jury. And, with luck, that Grand Jury will be sending Trump a subpoena.
eemom
Also, you are becoming what you hate. Or at least, your writings are.
zhena gogolia
@Doug!:
I was also impressed. Did you invent that locution, or just apply it aptly?
DougJ
@eemom:
Not assuming that. I assume that Dems will win the House if this happens.
DougJ
@zhena gogolia:
I learned it from a friend in college.
eemom
Yeah, sounds clever, but that’s bullshit too. Brooks is odious for many reasons, but there’s no similarity between him and Bannon. Brooks is a smug, fat ass, armchair enabler. Bannon is a true believer wannabe revolutionary psycho.
eemom
@DougJ:
Oh, so part of your brilliant Sarandon-esque bring on the revolution meme, like why it would be totally great for us if Roy Moore wins? Please.
Matt McIrvin
@Omnes Omnibus: The negativity here is nothing compared to what I’m seeing from some of my Facebook friends.
Just saw a reshare of a long rant about how America is a Nazi country now and everyone you personally know is a Nazi now, whether you realize it or not, they’re all coming to kill you, and voting is useless because if they lose they’ll just come back worse and kick our ass, and this is totally new and something we’ve never seen before because there were never any Nazis before the past few years. Everyone here knows I can be a pretty negative guy, but this person seemed historically ignorant if nothing else. I had to comment on how Hitler himself said he took major inspiration from the Americans.
joel hanes
@Omnes Omnibus:
depression
I’m having problems with it too, but if I ignore Balloon Juice and the other liberal blogs,
and just read straight news, it’s just as bad; maybe worse, because I feel alone without
the company of other people who are apalled and sick at heart at what this clowncar
is doing to our nation and to the world.
I conclude that the causes are not the negativity of liberal blogs,
but the actions of the asshole Republicans.
Doug!
@eemom:
I’ve helped raise 20K for Jones here. My point there was that even if it’s true that Moore winning hurts Republicans, it’s STILL BETTER to support Jones and have him win.
Doug!
@eemom:
That’s where you are wrong. They are both smug, fat ass, armchair enablers who are also wannabe revolutionary psychos.
Gvg
Doug, I get the impression that thinking up these puzzles like a political whodunit amuses you. It’s really bothering a lot of nice people. I think you should stop.
It’s not bothering me because your scenario is too unreal, like a book plot. It doesn’t hook me, but I also don’t think it’s that perceptive. Things aren’t going to work like that.
zhena gogolia
@Doug!:
Yeah, I was having trouble parsing eemom’s distinction here.
I know everyone’s down on you for this post, but since I never read a word of Brooks, I have to thank you for that passage you quoted. I had no idea he had sunk that low. Sad.
Doug!
@zhena gogolia:
I’ll tell you the truth: I find the tax bill so depressing that pretty much anything else is pick-me-up for me right now.
stinger
OP:
You really don’t see anything “negative” in ideas like these?
Omnes Omnibus
@debbie: That is fake news. Trump won’t be invited, but the Palace is far to smooth to let that such a direct statement out. A statement that the ceremony at the chapel in Windsor is not a state occasion and that the Obamas were simply invited as family friends will be enough.
Doug!
@stinger:
Not compared to Trump or Pence getting the legislation they want through Congress, no. I think it’s quite minor compared with 30 million people losing their health care or this tax bill. It will be scary for bit but I just don’t any of it affecting people’s lives the way that horrible legislation does.
And if this happens, it will severely limit their ability to pass their horrible legislation.
Omnes Omnibus
@joel hanes: I am simply stating what was reported to me. I am holding the rest until someone says “where is good old commenter?” and I can tell people that he told me he needed a break.
Omnes Omnibus
@Omnes Omnibus: too. Damn it, too.
Doug!
@joel hanes:
I think the short term political news is really, really bad right now. But things will look very differently politically in 2020.
debbie
@Omnes Omnibus:
Betty C. linked to this in the morning thread.
geg6
@debbie:
Haven’T completely quit, but I’m down to six a day from a pack. Little steps.
Brachiator
This is not an analysis, or a conclusion to an argument. It’s just wishful thinking surrounded by verbiage.
It is a belief that the Democrats don’t actually have to do anything to win votes; circumstance will simply dump victory into their laps because the public will obviously be disgusted by Trump’s possible actions.
No matter what happens with Trump things will be tougher. And Democrats need to focus the rage against Trump with candidates and policies, not just sit back and wait for something to happen.
Also, some dope pundit guessed that sex harassment claims would hurt more Democrats than Republicans. Who knows? But what if you have more Congress people drop out before the midterms, or linger under a cloud of suspicion. Could this affect turnout?
What if you had more women candidates rise up to replace tainted candidates for Democrats, to focus anger and to promise a fresh start and a new deal?
Omnes Omnibus
@debbie: Nova Magazine is just some dude’s blog. Read the article. Someone from Politico picked it up with no fact checking.
Doug!
@Brachiator:
Look at the gains Democrats made after Watergate.
And nothing gets good candidates into a race like the possibility of a wave in their direction. Normally, in a +10R district, your only chance to win is that the Republican incumbent gets caught with a dead boy or a live girl. This time, we could essentially have a president caught with a live girl or a dead boy, in effect, that puts an enormous number of seats into play.
debbie
@geg6:
Still, pretty good.
debbie
@Omnes Omnibus:
Harrumph.
joel hanes
@Omnes Omnibus:
I wasn’t contesting the report you received, nor yet chiding you for relaying the information.
I was making my own report, from a different guard post.
Carry on.
Omnes Omnibus
@Brachiator: Are you quoting the FP? If so, please indicate it. If not, could you have the courtesy to indicate your source? Threads here can go on for hours, and one could, sadly, not remember every word posted above.
Omnes Omnibus
@joel hanes: I didn’t think that you were. I was just trying to define the parameters of how I could use his communication.
eemom
@Brachiator:
Yep, this prognostication REALLY mystifies me too. The intricacies of the Russia probe — whether it implodes or not — are what’s gonna get the brain dead electorate to vote in a Democratic majority? What the fuck are you smoking, and where can I get some?
eemom
Purported analogy to Watergate is laughable. Those were days in which Republicans with consciences, principles, and concern for the well being of the country roamed the earth.
Doug!
@eemom:
It’s a complicated issue now but firing Mueller and issuing pardons isn’t that complicated. I really think Trump takes a little hit if/when it happens. I’ll be surprised if not. People will freak that polls don’t change that much…but we don’t need much change for a huge wave.
Brachiator
@Doug!:
I’m not exactly sure what you think will happen to Trump if he fires Mueller. The 1974 midterm elections happened after Nixon had resigned.
Caravelle
And what then? Do the Democrats take steps to strengthen our democracy and fight against right-wing extremism? Pass a new Voting Rights Act, implement strong checks and reviews on voting methods and elections, mandate non-partisan redistricting, abolish the Electoral College, what have you? Will the mainstream press self-examine further and change its culture and guidelines to deal with threats to it and democracy?
I remember after Bush I thought Obama was the end of the long national nightmare. Except for the bits where he “looked forward, not backward” and swept the whole lying the country into a war and torturing people under the rug. And look where we are now; many of the exact same actors dealing with a situation ten times worse. If the dems win in 2018 and 2020 and all the non-evil powers that be consider that the final victory, then a Republican is very likely to win in 2024 or 2028 just mechanically, and he might be a straight-up competent Nazi next time. Given how things are going in the conservative movement.
Cpl. Cam
I don’t think David Brooks is half the man Steve Bannon is and I fucking hate Steve Bannon.