I’ve been hearing a lot that Manafort won’t talk because he knows he’ll get pardoned:
I project this scenario: Manafort, having already pled ‘not guilty,’ clams up. He has no incentive to speak because he has no fear. Months (or years) from now, just before trial, Trump issues some tweets to the effect of This is all an attack by Hillary Clinton supporters!, and he pardons Manafort and anybody else who has been indicted by Mueller. If Mueller then brings Manafort before the Grand Jury and demands he answer questions because he no longer has any legitimate fear of federal prosecution because of his pardon, Manafort will take the Fifth because he is still subject to criminal liability in New York State, where much of the money laundering occurred. Manafort’s assertion of the privilege will be upheld because Trump’s pardon affected only federal charges.
There are two problems with this scenario. One: If Manafort is still subject to criminal liability in New York State, wouldn’t he want to cut a deal to get himself out of that? Two: Trump is an old, obese man….what if he has a stroke or a heart attack? Is Manafort sure that Pence would pardon him too? Not to mention that Trump is not exactly a loyal guy. I’d be awful nervous if the only thing that stood between me and life in prison (Manafort is 68 and 12 counts adds up to a lot of years) was the future word of a fat, elderly sociopath.