BIG announcement: Jason Isbell is playing a FREE Get Out the Vote Concert in Huntsville on Saturday, December 9th at 6:00pm! Get your tickets here:https://t.co/vTUcvpQBmJ
— Doug Jones (@GDouglasJones) December 9, 2017
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Give Doug Jones full credit, he’s gonna fight for every vote.
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I love Alabama. It's my father's home state. My sisters and brother live there today. I made a film about its beloved city, Selma. If you live there and love it too, please watch this. Then, vote for decency and justice. Vote #DougJones. pic.twitter.com/qhGniyp3qC
— Ava DuVernay (@ava) December 9, 2017
Butthurt Jordan Trombone (fka XTPD)
Completely OT: Iraq declares victory over ISIS.
Ithink
Love all the last minute pushing tbut I just dont know if the Democrats pull this off unless a substantial # of (moderate) Republicans break w/ the party this ground or just stay @ home because of so-called personal convictions/”values”. We’ll just have to wait until those last votes are tallied!
JMG
Jones has run a very strong campaign. If he doesn’t win, that’s on Alabama, not the candidate nor his party. But I;ll bet serious money that if he does lose, there will be 10,000 takes saying this proves the Democrats are bad in some way (many different ways will be cited).
Smedley Darlington Prunebanks (formerly Mumphrey, et al.)
@JMG:
Yes. Doug Jones can do only so much. In a state filled with losers who believe Roy Moore over seven or eight women who have publicly, openly told the world about what he did to them, the blame falls on those losers. You can’t get blood from a stone, as they say.
moops
Even without Moore’s horrible perversions he is a monstrous politician. It is an indictment of the people of Alabama if they look past his sexual disorder because they really want all the other horrible things that Moore advocates.
ArchTeryx
In the end, it comes down to decency vs. tribalism and nobody, nobody does tribalism in this country more than rural white Southerners. Been that way since the country’s founding. (And to be fair, white rurals of ALL states also seem to be going all-in on tribalism now. Didn’t use to be that way, but it is now).
This election is testing the outer limits of tribe uber alles, because Alabama is a very rural state, and as a result it is a very red state. If those country sparrows voluntarily vote for a predatory, child-eating Cooper’s Hawk to represent them, well, they’ll get what they vote for.
We’ll see.
Butthurt Jordan Trombone (fka XTPD)
@JMG: Erik Loomis made this point last month on Twitter – here a Jones loss would signify that Democrats just cannot win national office in Alabama, at least for the time being.
More optimistically, a Jones win would support my hypothesis that Edwin Edwards-style “I’m not even a lizard” campaigns can be sufficient for victory…but it has to be preceded by the same principle failing on a large scale (it has to fail once, so to speak).
LurkerNoLonger
Come on, people of Alabama, you have a clear choice here. Don’t reinforce all the negative stereotypes about your state. Do the right thing and elect the guy who isn’t a lunatic child molester.
Bill Arnold
Don’t know anyone in Alabama. Hoping polls are skewed Republican. (State level polls are often inaccurate.)
Since it’s open thread, don’t know if this has been linked before; categorization of D. Trump lies:
Commentary: I study liars. I’ve never seen one like Donald Trump.
Nicely done – a simple and understandable analysis, that I haven’t seen previously.
FlipYrWhig
@JMG:
My most Chapo-fied beardo-lefty friend on Facebook was already ranting last week about how if Jones can’t beat Roy Moore it proves the national Democratic party is trash. SMH.
Bill Arnold
@Bill Arnold:
Just for the record, found the paper (or one of them) alluded to in the news piece:
Lying in everyday life (1996, Bella DePaulo et al) (There are times, like when reading that paper and the article about DT’s lies, when I realize I don’t fully understand many other members of my species.)
Amaranthine RBG
Jason Isbell is a national treasure.
raven
@Amaranthine RBG: Ooooo but it’s so dangerous, How you like this MS/MR Know it all??
Jason IsBells Will Be RingingVerified account
@JasonIsbell
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Damn fine football, Auburn. Congrats to all the fans. Gotta say, I enjoyed it.
Amaranthine RBG
@raven:
You’ll adjust to reality eventually.
Personal growth is often painful. Hang in there.
Redshift
A Deaniac acquaintance of mine is from Alabama, and posted on Facebook calling in everyone he knows who still lives there to come out and vote for Doug Jones. He got a response from one of his Alabama friends that if he would vote for Jones, and the values he stands for, he has no shame.
Since his response to another comment suggested he wasn’t a committed Moore supporter, I was very polite and asked what were those values he considered so shameful as to make it impossible to vote for Jones, even if it was the only way to keep the Senate seat from a man with very credible allegations of child molestation.
No response, sadly. I was actually interested, and I need the practice having discussions like that without getting emotionally invested. I’m guessing abortion, but there’s no way to know. (Twitter is full of wingnuts claiming that Jones supports abortion up until birth and is getting big money from Planned Parenthood.)
Redshift
@Bill Arnold:
Yeah. I’m guessing he never had a full-on bullshit artist in his studies.
moops
@FlipYrWhig:
well, the strategy of the DNC to sit out these races, over and over….. I get the logic they are pushing, showing up in strength makes it Democrat vs Republican contest, and Jones loses that fight.
But there should be other ways for the DNC to act in Alabama that wouldn’t have set off this bomb.
Gator90
@LurkerNoLonger: I love Alabama. Lived there several years and made some wonderful friends. But the negative stereotypes about white Alabamians are largely true, and Moore is going to win in a walk.
Mnemosyne
@Redshift:
It’s most likely abortion. Abortion is the Big Bad that allows Republicans to excuse literally any bad behavior from their politicians, because nothing could possibly be worse than “killing babies.” Rape? Pedophilia? Murdering a few people? Well, at least they didn’t kill 1 million babies a year like Obama did!
(Of course, the abortion rate went down under Obama and was more like half that, but you can’t actually show statistics to these people. They’re too heavily propagandized.)
Davebo
Guess Jones couldn’t book Neil Young for the concert….
Mary G
I am a believer in incremental change. When the dark elf went off to destroy the DOJ whocoodanode that the race to replace him would be any closer than 40 points? It’s like Ossoff, even a close loss is a big win and will give Darrell Issa nightmares. If nothing else, it provides more momentum and energy for Republican retirements and getting good candidates like Jones into more races in more. It would also also give idiots like Steve Bannon an excuse to nominate more crazies like Todd Akin who are easier to beat.
FlipYrWhig
@moops: Sure, but then there’s SUCH a damned if you do damned if you don’t dynamic where the national party is at fault for doing too little and then also for doing too much, and gets to get called trash by lefty beardos regardless.
aimai
@moops: Stop it you moron. The DNC handles PRESIDENTIAL RACES not state level senatorial or congressional races.
raven
@Amaranthine RBG: Fuck you preacher.
moops
@FlipYrWhig: the lefty beardos get huffy when the DNC does too much to support a D in a race?
Or that they are still butthurt over Bernie?
FlipYrWhig
@Davebo: Southern man don’t need him ’round anyhow #skynyrd
moops
@aimai:
The Democratic National Committee is the formal governing body for the United States Democratic Party. The committee coordinates strategy to support Democratic Party candidates throughout the country for local, state, and national office.
FlipYrWhig
@moops: Oh of course! If the “party establishment” gets involved it proves the candidate is a neoliberal tool and dooms them to losing. If the “party establishment” doesn’t get involved it proves that they don’t care because they’re comfortable neoliberals anyway. If all you have is a hammer everything looks like a neoliberal.
m.j.
I really disliked the pandering to the second amendment, an amendment that needs to die, but that’s my own bugaboo.
Other than that, I really felt a swell of emotion for his thoughts and his candor.
japa21
@raven: Isn’t it amazing how some folks will lecture others about things they know nothing about, such as “personal growth”?
moops
@FlipYrWhig: usually when you encounter this damned if you do, damned if you don’t reasoning then that person is not being honest about their motives. Or they are just contrarian pricks and I would consider them toxic on the subject.
MattF
Somewhat OT. Peter Wehner says ‘So long’ to the Republican party.
Dorothy A. Winsor (formerly Iowa Old Lady)
@Mary G: Thanks for saying that. It’s helpful to me as I try to put things in proportion.
JMG
Candidates decide how much help they get from national party organizations by asking for it. If the DNC gave Jones little help or kept its help on the down-low, that was his call. Sen. Booker and Deval Patrick are in Alabama this weekend campaigning for him. That was probably coordinated by national party organizations, but I’ll bet Jones made the request to have some high-profile African-American surrogates first.
Alternative Fax, a hip hop artist from Idaho
@raven: Over the summer, somebody asked Jason Isbell on his twitter feed,
and his response was something to the effect of
The guy responded
Which of course was answered something like
It cracked me up that right before the season starts, Isbell answers with a thoughtful follow up question about education. I as.ked for tickets to his Indy show with James McMurtry for Xmas.
Mnemosyne
@m.j.:
Meh. Jones actually said the most sensible thing a gun owner can say, which was that guns are tools you use to kill things (like deer), not props to wave around in public.
Mnemosyne
@Amaranthine RBG:
Most people ignore you as much as possible, because we’ve already figured out that you’re an asshole. Raven’s just a little late to the realization.
B.B.A.
@MattF: Meanwhile my mother has been gushing adoration for the Donald finally recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, something those filthy antisemitic Democrats would never have done. (Neither would her beloved GWB, but I’m going to refrain from mentioning that.)
I haven’t spoken about Roy Moore to her, but I’m sure she’d dismiss it with a shot at Hillary.
Never dismiss the ability of people – even thoughtful, intelligent people – to compartmentalize. I mean, hell, I’m one to talk, I probably shouldn’t even be on speaking terms with her anymore, right?
Lapassionara
@MattF: I hope he is the first of many.
Thank you for the link.
m.j.
@Mnemosyne:
…tools you use to kill things (like people).
Omnes Omnibus
@m.j.: Yeah, let’s nitpick.
Redshift
@moops: I think it’s a mistake to attribute that decision to the DNC. Everything I’ve read indicates that national Democratic Party would be willing to be more involved (at least since Moore won the primary and Jones has a shot), but the Jones campaign thinks they’re better off just getting money and keeping them at arm’s length.
hueyplong
@B.B.A.: I’ve lost my ability to tolerate lectures or even mere commentary from people who voted for Donald Trump.
Mnemosyne
@m.j.:
Yes, but at least Jones acknowledged that that’s what they’re for. Most of the gun-huggers act like they’re mere props and are shocked, shocked that anyone would actually use them to shoot.
As I’ve said before, my dad was a hunter, so I was raised around guns … which he kept carefully secured in a separate room that only he had a key to. And he only brought them out when he went hunting. Any maintenance that had to he done to them was done inside that room. Because my dad was a responsible gun owner and not a fucking clown like Roy Moore.
Bill Arnold
@Redshift:
Her studies. (Bella DePaulo) I also assumed wrong until looking up her work; was a useful personal lesson about insufficiently-suppressed biases.
MattF
@B.B.A.: It’s a huge problem when someone you care about has turned to the Dark Side. My sister’s (former) best friend is a Trump supporter– so, so much for that 50-year friendship. Fortunately, I haven’t encountered that particular dilemma in my own life.
gene108
@Bill Arnold:
The conclusion sums up Trump nicely. He is a violation of human societal norms.
Amaranthine RBG
@m.j.:
I shot 250 rounds this morning and all that was killed was 218 clay discs.
m.j.
@Mnemosyne:
I grew up around guns too.
“Gun culture,” is pernicious.
The Second Amendment is an ugly thing. It is racist and completely detrimental to society.
I’ll leave it there.
I don’t want to get into a debate about guns.
Doug Jones is The Man.
gene108
@aimai:
The DNC is the most powerful organization in the universe, I say we use it.
MattF
@gene108: It really is difficult, and tiring, to come up with words to describe Trump. For a while I settled on ‘indifferent to the truth’– but then it was necessary to add a word or two– ‘Completely indifferent to the truth’, ‘Utterly indifferent to the truth’, ‘Pathologically indifferent to the truth’, etc. Now, I’m trying ‘Delusional’. But that’s not really good enough because it sort of excuses him. So, I’m still stuck.
Omnes Omnibus
@MattF: You could go with “a fucking monster.”
Matt McIrvin
@Butthurt Jordan Trombone (fka XTPD):
Which is something that everybody assumed was the case beforehand, anyway, so it’s not much of a shock. A loss would be much more depressing if this were Florida or Pennsylvania, say–someplace we think of as a crucial, gettable swing state. Profoundly shocking if it were someplace like Massachusetts (think Scott Brown 2010, only under more favorable circumstances in a year when we think we should be winning).
MattF
@Omnes Omnibus: Hmm.
Q. What do you think about Donald Trump?
A. He’s a fucking monster.
Has the advantage of being true…
Matt McIrvin
@Mnemosyne: The statistics are interesting:
http://www.johnstonsarchive.net/policy/abortion/graphusabrate.html
This graph excludes extralegal abortions, so they seem to rise from nil as legalization happens. But aside from that, it looks like abortions as a fraction of overall pregnancies have been dropping at a modest linear rate, with no large fluctuations, ever since sometime just a few years after Roe.
And abortions overall were flat during the Reagan/Bush era but dropped steeply during the 1990s, bumped up a little around 2005-06 and dropped faster under Obama–that is presumably all driven by changes in the pregnancy rate.
edit: ah, I get it, it was driven by fluctuations in the number of women of childbearing age. It looks like administration policy has basically zero effect.
LurkerNoLonger
@Gator90: it’s their choice of course, I’m just hoping for the best.
Mnemosyne
@Matt McIrvin:
IIRC, the Guttmacher Institute — which is the premier source for statistics about reproductive rights — says that their studies from the Obama years indicate that increased access to birth control thanks to PPACA led to a decrease in unintended pregnancies, which also decreased the abortion rate. I don’t have a link handy, unfortunately, and their website is a pain to search from the iPad.
WaterGirl
@Mnemosyne:
I see you have met my sister!
@Mnemosyne:
I see that you met my sister twice! :-)
J R in WV
@B.B.A.:
The only Republican(s) I’m close to are my brother and his immediate family. A couple of cousins as well, but it’s easy to avoid politics because we aren’t close enough to go there before we’ve exhausted family talk.
My brother and I speak on our birthdays, and email every month or two. No discussion of politics in years. We’re both adult enough to know not to go there because it would damage our relationship as brother.
J R in WV
@Amaranthine RBG:
So, not a good shot either, then. ;-)