Several folks asked me to repost this today/tonight because it got lost in the shuffle of yesterday’s election news. So reposted!
———
Yesterday a self radicalized Bangladeshi immigrant in New York attempted to blow up himself and a chunk of the New York City subway. There’s no indication so far that he was actually in touch with ISIS or any other extremist Islamic group.
Fortunately he failed.
You know you're in the wrong line of work as a suicide bomber when you fail to kill anyone AND fail to suicide. #NYC
— JΞSŦΞR ✪ ΔCŦUΔL³³º¹ (@th3j35t3r) December 11, 2017
He did burn himself and caused some minor injuries to three others. And as is always the case when this type of incident happens we are once again inundated with questions about terrorism and its relationship to immigration. The reality is that terrorism incidents are down globally for the second year in a row. Though there are increases in Iraq, Syria, Turkey, Afghanistan, and the Philippines, which makes sense giving the ongoing civil war in Syria and insurgencies and/or rebellions in the other states. The reality for Americans is that terrorism in the US remains rare – a small n phenomenon.
The New York bombing is the 19th jihadist terror attack in U.S. since June 2014. The majority of were committed by US citizens (71%). The US has the second highest number of attacks in the West, after France with 23. @ISPI_Terrorism
— Program On Extremism (@gwupoe) December 11, 2017
GWU’s Program on Extremism’s tweet is only looking at attacks arising from extremist Islamic ideology and/or affiliation, but 19 in 3 years is 6.33 incidents a year. Hardly an epidemic. Overall there have been 201 terrorist plots and incidents carried out between 2010 and 2016. This is 33.5 per year. Here too, we’re not talking about a lot of terrorism. And remember it includes both plots and actual attacks that have been carried out. Here’s the breakdown, you’ll notice who is carrying out and/or planning the majority of terrorist attacks in the US:
The database shows 115 cases by right-wing extremists ― from white supremacists to militias to “sovereign citizens” ― compared to 63 cases by Islamist extremists. Incidents from left-wing extremists, which include ecoterrorists and animal rights militants, were comparatively rare, with 19 incidents.
While we normally separate out terrorism from mass murder (four or more victims not including the perpetrator) by shooting, commonly called mass shooting, the difference in the number of incidents is staggering. We have now reached the point where there is at least one mass shooting per day in the US. As of 14 November 2017 there have been 317 mass shootings in the US so far in 2017. 2016 had 438! Mass shootings are not rare in the US – they are a very large N phenomenon.
The two types of violence do have some significant differences. Specifically in regard to motivation. Terrorism requires a political motivation; an attempt to use violence to force the state, the citizenry, or both to change their behavior as a result of the fear created by the act or acts of terrorism. Mass shootings that don’t have this component are just mass murders using a firearm. And, of course, the latter gets wrapped up in the ongoing argument over what the 2nd Amendment means and how it should be applied in the 21st Century.
There are, however, attempts to conflate these two issues. For instance, the attorney for the three Kansans facing trial for plotting to blow up an apartment complex where the majority of the residents are Somali immigrants is claiming that his clients activities are covered under both the 1st and 2nd Amendment. Specifically, his clients actions are protected as political speech/actions and as a type of freedom of assembly, as well as under the 2nd Amendment right to keep and bear arms.
“This case is uniquely political because much of the anticipated evidence will center around, and was in reaction to, the 2016 Presidential election,” defense attorneys wrote.
They also argued the case will require jurors to weigh whether the alleged conduct constitutes a crime or whether it is constitutionally protected speech and assembly and the right to bear arms.
This conflation, of an attempted act of domestic terrorism with lawful and protected speech and the right to keep and bear arms, heavily elides the distinction between terrorism and mass murder by mass shooting, which is the usual contact point for questions as to whether mass shootings are a form of terrorism. Short answer: if the shooter had a political motivation it could be terrorism. If the shooter doesn’t, then it most likely isn’t.
So I guess we've stopped asking why an old semi-rich guy in Vegas shot five or six hundred people?
— Schooley (@Rschooley) December 12, 2017
And this really gets to Robert Schooley’s observation. Because the Las Vegas shooter was a very affluent white man, despite the fact that he killed 58 people and wounded 546 more in under a half hour, outside of Las Vegas and maybe the home towns of the victims, the coverage dropped to almost zero quickly after the attack. Had yesterday’s attacker been a white guy with a gun there wouldn’t be any calls today to reform the US immigration system or for travel bans. There wouldn’t even be real calls for sensible reforms regarding firearms sales. Rather there would be calls for thoughts and prayers. And emphatic statements that it is too soon to discuss doing anything but thinking and praying. Americans have built up terrorism into an existential, uber-threat out of all proportion to the reality of terrorism to the lives of Americans. At the same time we’ve decided that mass murder by shooting is just something that happens – a type of background noise to our daily lives.
The national anthem, which has recently gotten recognized more and more, I notice, unequivocally states that the US is the home of the brave. It is high time Americans started living up to that statement and stopped being so easily spooked.
People outside of NYC: TERRORISM!!!!!
New Yorkers: Dude’s a loser with a crappy bomb who’s crowning life achievement is making my train 36 minutes late.— Kashana (@kashanacauley) December 11, 2017
Hkedi [Kang T. Q.]
Pro level bigfoot there Adam, while we are all celebrating the win in Alabama. =)
Butthurt Jordan Trombone (fka XTPD)
One benefit to 2017’s near-constant clusterfuckery is that the Halloween truck attack disappeared completely in under a week, and this most recent attack within a few hours.
Adam L Silverman
@Hkedi [Kang T. Q.]: Actually I started working on this post around 9:30 PM.
Jerzy Russian
Plotting to blow shit up is protected speech? That lawyer and his clients need swift kicks in the nuts.
Hkedi [Kang T. Q.]
@Adam L Silverman: Just giving you a hard time.
With respect to the article, It’s sadly not surprising to me anymore that this is the reaction. Almost as if a well funded chunk of our American political system wants to shrink the grey zone of tolerance for reasons of personal power…….
Adam L Silverman
@Hkedi [Kang T. Q.]: The media is corporate owned, so it wants eyeballs and ears and clicks. And the politicians have their own reasons, but as we constantly see by their other actions, they’re largely cowards. So you get a lot of elite and notable signaling to be afraid of terrorism as a phenomenon and especially foreign people of color as potential terrorists.
RobertDSC-Mac Mini
I wonder how the bomber messed up his bomb.
(I have experience in detecting and assessing mail bombs as part of my work. I learned from my classes how bombs are made.)
Adam L Silverman
@RobertDSC-Mac Mini: He didn’t take any classes. Found instructions on the Internet. Followed them. Either had bad instructions or didn’t follow them correctly. Most of these folks, regardless of where they’re from, their ethnicity, and/or their religion are not the sharpest chopsticks in the plastic spoon drawer.
ThresherK
Did any cable shows have Rudy Giuliani doing his “I’m so.scared Ima wee-wee on your pants” act?
chris
Good piece, Adam. Too bad it got crushed in the happy.
Hkedi [Kang T. Q.]
@Adam L Silverman: Good point with the primary actors, but even if a group decreasing tolerance for venal and self serving needs, riding that particular tiger can end really badly. Then again, we wouldn’t be the first country to stupid and greed ourselves into a world of hurt. (worse than what is going on I mean)
Adam L Silverman
@ThresherK: He’s in hiding. Between the leaks from the FBI’s NY Field Office towards the end of the 2016 election and him putting himself right into the middle in a very bad way of the Southern District of NY prosecution of Turkish-Iranian money laundering, which appears to be tied to Flynn’s paid lobbying work for Turkey, he’s facing a lot of trouble from Mueller. So he’s been scarce for months. It is entirely possible he was a very early flip by Mueller, but only time will tell where he is in all that.
Adam L Silverman
@chris: These things happen.
MisterForkbeard
Fantastic post, but… maybe repost tomorrow so it’ll get the discussion it deserves?
NMgal
@MisterForkbeard: Or Thursday. Good stuff here but jubilation will reign!
Adam L Silverman
@MisterForkbeard: I shall repost no post after its time!
dp
Been sayin’. Down with the piss your pants caucus.
Amir Khalid
If I understand the reasoning, the attorney in question plans to argue that conspiring to commit terrorism is protected free speech. That fails, with a vengeance, to compute.
Adam L Silverman
@Amir Khalid: You’re not from Kansas are you?
MobiusKlein
On the west coast, we are more worried about the non stop wildfires burning our cities, lethal traffic than minor t-ism.
LaNonna
Mass shootings aRe a big topic among our Italian and European friends here, stated as the main reason they are reluctant to visit the US. Can’t say I blame ghem, it gives me second thoughts when planning a visit.
Steve in the ATL
@RobertDSC-Mac Mini:
Welcome to the FBI watch list!
Mnemosyne
This guy Ullah seems to be another of what I’ve been calling “hashtag terrorists.” He wanted to do some kind of a mass attack but the reason wasn’t that important to him. Twenty years ago he would have been claiming to do it on behalf of Palestine. He just wants the hashtag of “ISIS” to give him a plausible excuse for what he wanted to do anyway.
Steve in the ATL
@Adam L Silverman: did he use WikiHow? Their bomb making instructions suck.
Adam L Silverman
@Steve in the ATL: I have no idea.
WaterGirl
Adam, on any other night I would be very interested in this. Maybe you could think about re-posting this thread another time, also?
Adam L Silverman
@WaterGirl: I’ll repost it tomorrow.
WaterGirl
@Adam L Silverman: yay! Now I can go to bed, which is good because I have an early meeting tomorrow.
SiubhanDuinne
Nicely played, Adam.
Adam L Silverman
@SiubhanDuinne: Thank you, thank you very much.
raven
@Steve in the ATL: You in St Looie now?
debbie
I can’t imagine how anyone thinks they can stop people who become radicalized years after they arrive here.
Jeffro
So we’re kinda…Chasing Ghosts…as usual.
You know, an Anderson Cooper could do a special showing these stats side-by-side eight ways to Sunday (number of people killed, frequency of attacks, etc) and it probably wouldn’t move public opinion one bit. It’ll take a generation of rule by the sane party, talking about terrorism like Obama did, to settle folks back to a passable level
Amaranthine RBG
Adam – Thank you for a dose of sanity
The hysteria about terrorism, in addition to providing cover for racism, also mirrors the posturing that takes place in the gun control discussion
We are safer now than at any time in the past 30 or 30 years but people who obsess about gun control go into high dudgeon whenever one of the increasingly rare shootings happen.
Adam L Silverman
@Jeffro: It is pretty amazing what people become socialized to fear.
Adam L Silverman
@Amaranthine RBG: The shootings are actually much more frequent events than the terrorist incidents. But we’ve conditioned ourselves and been conditioned to freak out about one and sort of just go “meh” for the other.
Mike in NC
The FOX News/Trump supporter demographic has been conditioned by years of wingnut propaganda about how crime is completely out of control, the cities are burning, hordes of illegal aliens and terrorists are flooding over the border, etc. There is no reasoning with them. Hate and fear 24/7.
geg6
And then there’s the every day terrorism inflicted on women whose male partners kill them in cold blood when the women decide they don’t want to be their chattel any more.
Sorry, I should just get out of this thread and read about something more cheery to me today, like the GOP tax bill.
Cheryl Rofer
Thanks, Adam, for the post and for reposting it. I wanted to read it, but last night was something else.
It’s more or less what my reaction was, along with that of many New Yorkers: Huh, doofus can’t even blow himself up. Making proper explosives is harder than people think. You have to hit the sweet spot between blowing up too easily and not blowing up at all. Obviously this guy missed it.
I also like that part about being brave. I can think of a great many experiences as part of my job, particularly when I traveled to the former Soviet Union, in which I was terrified at what might happen, partly because of exaggerated fears among the intel folks. It’s worth noting that our diplomats face dangers every day too. The recent efforts to surround all embassies with razor wire and dead area are embarrassing. Nobody else’s embassies look that way in most places.
Duane
Anyone who’s scared of terrorists but supports the guns-for-anyone-anywhere-anytime thinking is a bloody fool. Amazingly, to me anyway, it’s a big group.
Adam L Silverman
@Cheryl Rofer: You’re welcome. I wasn’t scared in Iraq. I’m not going to be scared at home.
Jeffro
@Adam L Silverman: @Adam L Silverman: When something odd is going on, or things are operating in a way that doesn’t seem to make sense…the first thing you’re supposed to ask yourself is, “Who benefits?”
Who indeed?
And I’m not just hanging that on the obvious culprits like the NRA, or neo-con hawks, or whatever. The uncomfortable truth is – and I know you know this – if I as John Q. Citizen can convince myself that terrorism is a huge problem requiring over-the-top measures (including a good dose of military action in ‘those’ countries overseas), and not primarily a policing issue that’s still going to have the occasional casualty, then that helps me not worry so much about being in crowds or taking the subway. It helps me not have to engage my System 2 all the time and sort through the real odds of getting killed in Times Square.
schrodingers_cat
T’s appointee to USCIS has used the two incidents in NYC to argue for getting rid of family sponsorship* for a greencard except for spouses and children under 18 and the diversity visa. His op-ed here.
* Under the current law citizens over 21 can also sponsor their parents and siblings (although the wait for the sibling visa is so long that it is meaningless for countries like India, China, Mexico and Philippines.)
Cheryl Rofer
@Adam L Silverman: Bravery is going ahead when you’re terrified.
Jeffro
@Mike in NC: So true.
I’ve tried very hard recently when talking with RWNJ relatives not to engage so much on the “Trump sucks” front as on the “wow…Fox hasn’t reported X to you guys?” or “I took a look at Fox’s website…do they really try and scare you every day with something about MS-13?” Let ’em mull it over on their own a while and see what happens.
J R in WV
Loving this. So very accurate AND true.
And your statistics on mass shooting deaths versus “terrorism” is pretty revealing. There’s obviously a group of politicians and media folks very dedicated to multiplying our fear of something that is rare and not very dangerous – Foreign Terrorism – while covering for the far more dangerous and common American murder by guns.
Republicans and the right wing don’t want anyone askeert of them precision manufactured guns, but everyone should quake at the thought of brown people with crummy home-made bombs. Leave alone the huge number of mass shootings, 400+ last year, versus, what, 18 terrorist attacks?
I know which I’m more afraid of. Armed Wing Nuts!
Mary G
I mortally offended/pissed off some former work colleagues in December 2001 at a Christmas party when I said that not all 19 of the 9/11 hijackers were told that they were on a suicide mission and that OBL couldn’t that many more in reserve. Bleeding heart liberal and GD Commie were some of the terms thrown around.
Repatriated
@Mary G: No reserve means it’s not a war, which means GWB didn’t deserve to be considered as a War Preznit. And that means it’s ok to ask how they let it happen… which gets uncomfortable really quickly.
Mike J
I once proofread for my gfriend’s dad who was teaching counter terror back in the 90s. Big thing on the syllabus was Herrhausen and the importance of lead and trail cars.
satby
Subject dear to my heart and I wouldn’t have seen it yesterday, so I’m also glad you reposted this.
Here in the purple part of blood red Indiana, some people often act surprised when I say I would move back to Chicago in a heartbeat if I had the money. They really think the “Chiraq” meme is how the city really is. And they’re afraid of cities. This country is divided into two completely different universes, thanks to right wing media.
Duane
@Steve in the ATL: I suspect he made the list as soon as the class finished. Position on the list dependent on skin color.
Adam L Silverman
@Cheryl Rofer: I took my Area Supervisory Officer’s (ASO) advice to heart: there is a bullet out there with everyone’s name on it. Those don’t scare me. What scares me are those marked “to whom it may concern”.
Adam L Silverman
@Mary G: Actually only the guys that took over the cockpits and were flying the planes new it was a suicide run. The muscle in the cabin were not informed of this.
J R in WV
@Cheryl Rofer:
This has always been my belief.
I once helped pull a guy from a burning Mustang, the gas tank was squashed by a semi. I did what needed to be done, wrenched the door open, another guy arrived right behind me, we lifted the driver, unconscious, from his car, his feet were in the back seat from the spin the collision put on his car. Then I got the shakes. After it was all over.
Years later I put my burning house out with the third fire extinguisher I tried, the first two failed to hold a charge. I’ve had other scary things happen, but the fires seem to be a theme. Time for the fear after. Usually. ETA: So far!
Adam, thanks for reposting this!!
Lyrebird
@geg6: Yeah, it is awful that the murder of wives and of girlfriends barely registers a “meh” in the outside world. And I hope you do find whatever you need to get through and get some sleep tonight – googling “schnauzer puppies” or whatever floats your boat.
The person within my extended circle of friends who was closest to the Twin Towers spent the next week after their destruction taking her puppy to the park and reading young adult fiction.
Adam L Silverman
@Mike J: I remember that stuff!
Adam L Silverman
@satby: I’ve walked from the Palmer House to the Lou Malnattis across from DePauw and then all the way down to Gino’s East at all hours in Chicago and never once felt in jeopardy.
Duane
@Mike in NC: Don’t forget about all the terrorism, riots, and police shootings caused by BLM. There’s a scary bunch. Excuse me while I hide in the bunker.
NotMax
Wrote an essay to myself on a certain September day very early in the century, putting my impressions and feelings down not only as therapy but as a personal record.
First time had ever used the phrase “government of the panicked, by the panicked, for the panicked.” Precious little has transpired to warrant not saying it over and over in the interim up through and including today.
Adam L Silverman
@NotMax: The Politics of Fear.
Omnes Omnibus
@Adam L Silverman: Better or worse than The Politics of Dancing?
John Revolta
@Adam L Silverman: This is interesting. I never knew about it. How do we know this?
NotMax
@Adam L. Silverman
Hope you’ll be around for a while. Wanted to make mention of something along your line but don’t want to sully this thread with info (mostly) OT.
Adam L Silverman
@John Revolta: I’m not going to look for citations, but it is my recollection that a determination was made during the course of the investigation that it was most likely that only Atta and the other folks that were going to enter the cockpits and fly the planes knew the full scope of the plan. The guys in the cabin, who were all Saudis, were there as muscle and thought they were doing a traditional hijacking.
khead
@Omnes Omnibus:
The politics of “Mmmmm feeling good”?
I dunno dawg. /RandyJackson /Progressive commercial
Omnes Omnibus
@khead: I wasn’t recommending. I was asking a damned question. Oi!
Adam L Silverman
@NotMax: Probably till midnight/0100 here on the east coast. But ask away here or shoot me an email.
I haven’t forgotten your request about the Congo stuff, but it’s been a strange week so far.
Adam L Silverman
@Omnes Omnibus: Not sure.
Omnes Omnibus
@Adam L Silverman: ‘Tis a puzzlement.
Mike J
BTW, Trump’s EPA Chemical Safety Director and one of his judges both withdrew today.
I did not fuck around and hit a triple double, but it was still a good day.
NMgal
@NotMax: The aftermath of that event was the first time the profound disconnect between my own reaction and attitudes (and that of most people I happened to know) and what I was assured was the national mood really hit home. I knew my politics were leftward of the median, I’d participated in antiwar and anti-GHWB protests, I lived in the middle of Texas fer Gawd’s sake, but it was only 2001 that got me saying things like, “This is not the country I thought I lived in.”
I was appalled at the veritable panic — not in NYC, but elsewhere. I looked at how Europeans, Israelis, and other folk all over the world dealt with terrorist attacks, and how we were, and I just kept thinking, “When did Americans become such pantswetters?” I might have attributed it to oversold propaganda, but opinion polls seemed to bear out the extraordinary apprehension and frank cowardice of huge numbers of my fellow citizens.
The conditioning has only gotten worse with 16 more years of FauxNews and the rest of the fear-flogging right-wing media ecosystem. And it seems to leak out onto even those who don’t consume that dreck directly. I’ve talked with otherwise politically sane people who refuse to believe me about the trends in crime statistics over the past 50 years. “Crime is worse than ever! Well, no, not here so much, but Over There, in those other cities, haven’t you heard all the awful stories?” How to overcome the propaganda machine?
encephalopath
Is there any distinction made in the terrorism statistics between plots that are native to the conspirators and plot that are cooked up by the FBI to entrap some disaffected youth who thinks his part in the plot is to show up and push the button?
That FBI was really big on that for awhile: inventing a terrorism plan and suckering some poor fool to play along so they could claim to have foiled a terrorist plot. I can’t believe they ever got convictions by doing that crap.
dimmsdale
Thanks for reposting, Adam. I’ve been watching with dread and disgust as the concealed-carry-reciprocity bill wend its way through congress; NYC has maybe the sanest firearms laws in the country at present, and the last thing I want in MY town is a bunch of untrained (or minimally trained) armed goobers from the sticks strutting through my town looking for trouble. I’m inclined to regard them far more as ‘the enemy’ than some mentally deficient terrorist wannabee. (Especially since reading about the Stanford study indicating that increased CC permits equals increased violent crime (link: https://news.stanford.edu/2017/12/07/new-study-analyzes-recent-gun-violence-research/). Really, if you think you need a gun in NYC, you’re either self-deluded or planning to go someplace you’d much better stay out of, and if you get in over your head & start blazing away, you’re going to kill an innocent party; maybe ME. Terrorist, schmerrorist.
SiubhanDuinne
@satby:
I spent the first 20 years of my life in Chicago (and environs) and never feared for my life or safety. At least, not because of anything I could blame on Chicago. Would also move back if I had the money. I love it.
Omnes Omnibus
@Mike J: Did you have to use your AK?
Adam L Silverman
@Omnes Omnibus: It is indeed!
NotMax
@Adam L. Silverman
Okay, then.
Link is to Russia Today but feel it is justified in this case: Putin drafts bill for expansion of Russian navy base in Syria .
While not (I take it) unexpected in your circles, as outlined tilts the playing field in the Mediterranean, the arc of the Levant through to Iran and northern Africa.
Adam L Silverman
@encephalopath: I’ve not seen it, but I’ve not looked for it either.
Lyrebird
@Adam L Silverman:
But at what time did that gal who was the cousin of a famous ball player, at what time was she walking with her baby and get killed? I am not trying to support saying OOH evil cities, and I’m somewhat aware of evil things happening in suburbs and rural areas, but I genuinely have not fully understood your point.
Which is okay, since I should be asleep and might not get to read a reply for many hours, but I thought I would ask anyway.
Peace all!
Mike J
@Omnes Omnibus: I saw the lights of the Goodyear blimp, it said Mike J’s a pimp.
Felonious Monk
Land of the Free and home of the Brave. Not no more.
More like: Land of the Fearful and home of the Scared Shitless.
John Revolta
@Adam L Silverman: So then, do those guys still get their 72 virgins?
Mike J
@Adam L Silverman:
I’ve been stranded in the combat zone, I’ve walked through Bedford Stuy alone, even rode my motorcycle in the rain. You told me not to drive, but I made it home alive.
(I worked in the combat zone one summer, the others were just one time things.)
Adam L Silverman
@dimmsdale: The research doesn’t surprise me. The earliest stuff done at FSU had a very limited data set and used a multiplicative factor to try to estimate to national effects. The stuff by John Lott, noted crossplaying sock puppet aficionado, is just dreck. His stuff was debunked by the same Northwestern University professor who debunked the Emory historians work that concluded that the vast majority of American military personnel never fired their weapons in the Civil War, WW I, and WW II. As was the case with the latter professor/researcher, when asked for his data set so others could replicate his studies, Lott said he couldn’t provide them. He’d lost them when moving offices. Or they were destroyed when his office flooded. Every attempt to replicate his findings has failed. The only real difference between him and the guy from Emory is that the latter had no deep pocketed patrons. So the Emory guy is now a bartender in New Orleans. Lott has his own think tank.
Steve in the ATL
@raven: was. Heading back to the ATL for a couple of days before I hit the SFO.
Adam L Silverman
@NotMax: I saw reporting on this in other places earlier. Putin has been consolidating Russian power and influence in the Middle East for months now. He didn’t just get an expansion on his 40 plus year lease on the naval base in Tartus, he also just negotiated for an air base in Egypt. And he’s negotiated a land route through the Caucuses, into Iran, terminating at another warm water naval port in southern Iran. He’s also locking in agreements with Turkey and Saudi Arabia. The US has, however, declared Jerusalem is Israel’s capitol.
Yutsano
@Adam L Silverman: There’s a fun place right under the waterfront near Pike Place Market in Seattle that I happen to enjoy. Once when my brothers were visiting my youngest admitted to carrying. I looked at him like he was mad. The only thing I ever worried about living in Seattle was earthquakes.
And Smart cars. Fuck your cash grab BMW!
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Mike J: Sure it wasn’t the Goodrich blimp?
Adam L Silverman
@Lyrebird: What I was saying is I’ve walked all over urban Chicago, including through the areas that many would label as Chiraq or dangerous, at all hours of the day and night and never once felt as if I was in danger.
Adam L Silverman
@John Revolta: I don’t know.
Lyrebird
@Mike J: Better song than the politics of dancing imnsho.
Omnes Omnibus
@Mike J: Billy Fucking Joel?
ETA: I’ve been on a Dropkick Murphys thing this evening.
Adam L Silverman
@Mike J: I’ve never ridden a motorcycle.
NotMax
As it’s kosher to meander a bit –
Soo-prize, soo-prize.
Omnes Omnibus
@Adam L Silverman: I’ve ridden in the rain. One simply needs to be careful. Everything done slower and more deliberately.
Steve in the ATL
@Omnes Omnibus: love them live but have found that their studio work doesn’t translate well
Adam L Silverman
@Omnes Omnibus: So I’ve been told.
Steve in the ATL
@Duane:
If only this were a joke
Mike J
@Adam L Silverman: TBH, it wasn’t my motorcycle.
dimmsdale
@Adam L Silverman: Yeah, Adam, I’m passingly familiar with John (cough MARY ROSH cough) Lott; also that real uniform firearms-fatality stats are hard to come by because the NRA has been so adept at getting research muzzled before it can happen. I have been mugged twice in NYC (though not for 20 years); both times the perps used non-shootable objects (one, a quarter-pint liquor bottle full of sand, one, what looked like a TV remote with maybe a blade, but his other hand was around my throat so I wasn’t inclined to query him further about its exact product attributes). Without NYC’s strong gun laws, both perps would have been armed, and possibly done far more lethal damage than they were able to.
Maybe it really is more dangerous ‘out there’, like maybe if you live in Florida or Tennessee you might feel safer armed; I’d be curious though how much that’s ginned-up projection, as opposed to honest concern over crime that you know about first-hand, or the entirely sensible fear of being a victim of armed road-rage from concealed-carriers. But NYC? Nah–the town’s safer than it’s been in decades, no hogleg needed!!
Mike J
@Omnes Omnibus: Doug J posted three times yesterday so I was re-listening to Exile again. Flipped a coin and went with the Stones over Pussy Galore.
NotMax
@Adam L. Silverman
All of which throws a hefty chunk of strategic planning and gaming scenarios (both just within the Pentagon and at NATO HQ) into the proverbial cocked hat, yes?
Amaranthine RBG
@Adam L Silverman:
Hmmm.. did you walk through any of the areas with concentration of blue dots: http://crime.chicagotribune.com/chicago/homicides
Most of Chicago is perfectly safe. But there are other places where it is ill-advised to walk the streets alone.
Omnes Omnibus
@Steve in the ATL: One of the most fun and “interesting” concerts I have attended. People were diving into the crowd from old balconies in the former theater in which the concert took place. The crowd was catching them. One of the divers was one of my colleagues – He ended up as the city attorney of one of Columbus, Ohio’s suburbs.
Me, I jump out of airplanes, not into crowds.
Omnes Omnibus
@Adam L Silverman: @NotMax: Jesus Fuck.
Adam L Silverman
@dimmsdale:
.
When I’m in Florida I assume everyone, from the old folks to the babies to pets to wildlife are armed, dangerous, and insane. The only thing that separates a Floridian from being a Floriduh Man or Floriduh Woman is they simply haven’t gotten around to it yet.
Adam L Silverman
@NotMax: Most likely.
? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?
Hey Adam, did you get my email? If you’re busy and/or still getting info I understand.
Omnes Omnibus
@Adam L Silverman: My boss has turned down any opportunities to do anything in Milwaukee. Me, I have never had any problem going there. So, I get to go there for her. I win. I like the city. It isn’t huge, but it is a real city. If one isn’t an idiot, most neighborhoods in cities are workable.
Adam L Silverman
@Amaranthine RBG: Probably some of them. I didn’t have the homicide map printed out when I was going where I was going.
NotMax
@Adam L. Silverman
Chester A. Riley may have put it best: “What a revoltin’ development this is!”
Mnemosyne
@Amaranthine RBG:
Chicago is not even in the top 10 cities with per capita shooting deaths. On almost every list, St. Louis is number one. It’s also not in the top 10 for the number of shooting deaths. The shootings there are a very big problem that needs to be solved, but they are concentrated in specific neighborhoods.
But I’m not surprised that you would decide to be an asshole about guns on the day that a commenter witnessed a friend being shot to death by her ex. You seem to enjoy latching onto other people’s pain.
Scamp Dog
@Amaranthine RBG: It would be interesting the density of those dots compares to population density somehow. Not knowing Chicago very well, I can’t make any sort of guess on my own.
Adam L Silverman
@Omnes Omnibus: I’ve done at least five posts on this diminishment of the US from a superpower to whatever it is we’re becoming over the past year. It would be one thing if there was a clearly developed and articulated policy to rebalance the global system and strategy to accomplish it. There isn’t. It is just the President acting out his long held prejudices that everyone cheats the US, the US spends to much on its allies and partners, all multilateral deals are bad for the US, etc. I didn’t write about it because so much else was going on and because I’ve covered it at least three times, but he went off again about NATO and giving a bill to Merkel during his Pensacola rally last Friday. Apparently we’ve hit the ROK with a bill for providing them with missile defense resources that from the reporting I’ve seen is not just exorbitant, but that it has really pissed of the South Korean civilian and military leadership. That didn’t happen because the Senior Defense Official and the Defense Attache in Seoul didn’t add the numbers up right. I think it is very clear that Make America Great Again includes the implicit “as the world’s greatest has been and backwater”.
Omnes Omnibus
@Mnemosyne: ARBG is a troll. Why are you responding?
Adam L Silverman
@? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?: I got it. I will turn it around for you tomorrow. Today was funky.
Mike J
So uhm, net neut is coming up. Gov Inslee says he’ll do everything he can to keep all providers in WA neutral, including not allowing them to use utility poles if they don’t meet Washington’s standards for net neutrality.
Yutsano
@Omnes Omnibus: Boredom?
Omnes Omnibus
@Adam L Silverman: I know. Jesus Fuck still applies. I was a soldier during the tail end of the Cold War. I am at heart an Atlanticist. What is happening now appalls me. Stupid and unprofessional.
Mnemosyne
@Mike J:
It sure is weird that the ranking member of the Senate committee on net neutrality was forced to resign right before the vote. I’m sure it was a total coincidence.
Omnes Omnibus
@Mnemosyne: He is still in the Senate.
NotMax
@Adam L. Silverman
Speaking of South Korea, one small sentence in particular within this story caught the eye.
Adam L Silverman
@Omnes Omnibus: No arguments here. I do understand from the early reporting that the forthcoming new National Security Strategy is going to be largely in line with the past several, some tweaks a la McMaster’s preferences, with some language thrown in to assuage the President. So you have the official policy and strategy documents beginning to trickle out and you have what the President says and does. And rarely to never shall they meet.
Adam L Silverman
@NotMax: They’re issuing all Chinese tourists microfiber towels at the border so they stay nice and dry during their visits.//
Other than sarcasm, I have no idea what’s up.
NotMax
@NotMax
Addendum.
Hoping whatever the foreign policy/international relations equivalent of the DEW line is is alert and taking notes.
(Not being alarmist, rather being prudent.)
Cheryl Rofer
@Adam L Silverman: My understanding of the NSS too. The most important part will be that fissure, though. Already Tillerson, his own spokesperson, and Mattis have said different things about North Korea this week. You can’t do deterrence that way.
I’ve read that Trump likes to have his subordinates at odds with each other. This is, of course, the mark of an incompetent manager. He’s incapable of making a judgment himself, so he lets them fight to see who survives. But doing foreign policy that way could be deadly.
Signing off now. Will check back in the morning.
Amaranthine RBG
@Mnemosyne:
Thanks Captain Obvious. If you had bothered to read this thread instead of jus showing up and spraying your stupid, you would see that Adam was posting about Chicago. That’s why I posted about Chicago.
Oh you mean like “Most of Chicago is perfectly safe. But there are other places where it is ill-advised to walk the streets alone”?
God, you are such an insufferable moron. This thread is about terrorism versus mass shootings. Take a minute and read the title? The idea that I am somehow changing the subject to interject guns to “latch onto someone’s pain” is just a really, really stupid thing to say. It just demonstrates that you have some weirdo, creepy, stalkerish need to talk shit to me all the time. That is a defect in your fucking sad character and not a reflection of me.
Grow up.
Adam L Silverman
@Cheryl Rofer: No arguments here. Seen all the same stuff. The only good news is who has been named as the nominee to be Ambassador to the ROK.
Amir Khalid
@Cheryl Rofer:
The US built a huge embassy in Kuala Lumpur in the 1980s, a decade or so after the Japanese Red Army took hostages at the previous embassy premises — space rented in an office building owned by an American insurance company. The new embassy is, I think, still the only embassy in KL guarded by home-country military personnel. It was built next door to a Shell petrol station. (Petrol stations have petrol storage tanks, of course, which an enterprising terrorist group can no doubt turn into large petrol bombs.) They didn’t buy out the petrol station owner until 1998, the day after al-Qa’idah bombed the US embassies in Africa.
Amir Khalid
@Adam L Silverman:
It’s got to be Dennis Rodman. By Trumpian logic, no one is better qualified to be US Ambassador to the ROK than the DPRK’s best American friend.
Adam L Silverman
@Amir Khalid: Nope Victor Cha.
https://www.csis.org/people/victor-cha
Villago Delenda Est
We have a lot more to fear from domestic nutjobs than we do from anyone who immigrated here from anywhere in the Middle East.
I’d look out for white “Christian” males as the prime suspects. Let them go through the profile grind. They’re far and away the most dangerous, and I’m in that group!
Mnemosyne
@Amaranthine RBG:
That’s right. This thread is about mass shootings. This is what Adam said:
This was your response:
One of us has a reading comprehension problem, but it ain’t me. When a criminologist tells me that mass shootings are “not rare” but some internet jackass tells me that they’re “increasingly rare” on the same day that a commenter here witnessed her friend’s murder, it’s pretty clear that the jackass has an agenda he’s trying to promote that does not match up with observed reality.
And in case your reading comprehension problems are making it difficult for you to follow what I’m saying, substitute your name for “jackass” in the above paragraph and see if it clicks.
NotMax
@Adam L. Silverman
Hmm. Guess John Yoo’s phone was out cell tower range.
:)
LurkerNoLonger
Republican state rep from KY kills him self after being accused of sexual assault. The most surprising part of this story…who knew republicans could feel shame? https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2017/12/13/kentucky-lawmaker-who-was-accused-of-molesting-a-teenage-girl-likely-killed-himself-coroner-says/?utm_term=.65291edc2922
T S
@Omnes Omnibus: Jumping out of airplanes is certainly safer. The ground will ALWAYS catch you.
Amir Khalid
@Adam L Silverman:
That’s strange. It is so unlike Trump to pick a qualified person for any job.
NotMax
@T S
D. B. Cooper on line 1.
;)
Adam L Silverman
@LurkerNoLonger: I saw that earlier. Regardless of the allegations, just sad all the way around.
NotMax
@Amir Khalid
Wouldn’t be in the least surprised if, after his trip to the region, Dolt 45 simply saw the first Asian name on the list of possibles, stopped there and put a check mark next to it.
El Caganer
@NotMax: There’s some more stuff on the topic here: http://www.atimes.com/turkey-switches-full-defiance-us-continues-putin-courtship/
Yutsano
@Amir Khalid: The better question is why Cha would want the Cheeto stain on his career.
NotMax
@El Caganer
Thanks for that link.
Adam L Silverman
@Yutsano: He’s standard GOP/conservative hawk foreign policy specialist. He knows the Korean stuff very well. When the President calls you and offers you this type of position it is very hard to say no.
El Caganer
@NotMax: You’re very welcome. I’m always on the lookout for articles by the guy that wrote that (he’s got a blog, too). Interesting insights.
Redshift
For a counterpoint to Americans terrorizing themselves, I recommend Stephen Colbert’s monologue from yesterday. The gist of it is “you tried to terrorize New York City subway commuters? Seriously?”
?BillinGlendaleCA
What Trump doesn’t understand about our basing agreements is that a good proportion of many of these countries would just be really happy to see us pack up and go home.
Vhh
@debbie:Zero immigration is the preferred solution of Bannon et al.
Elizabelle
OT: Jesus Fuck, FTF NY Times: blurb on front page right now:
If you railroad something through, with the support of tens of thousand bot posts you refuse to investigate, you are “efficient.” I would bet article is more nuanced, but the headline/website editors score again with the takeaway most people will see.
In happier news: good morning (Germany time). Am very happy and relieved at Doug Jones’ well-deserved victory in Alabama: thank you particularly to African American voters.
Brachiator
@El Caganer:
Very interesting op Ed piece. So, the US condemns Turkey, but not Russia, even as Putin appears to undermine US influence in the region. Amazing.
Brachiator
@Vhh:
Bannon prefers zero non-white immigration. This is a significant distinction which some people deliberately ignore.
Villago Delenda Est
@Brachiator: Because Bannon is a stone racist.
Brachiator
OT and WTF
Heard piece of a radio report that PBS host Tavis Smiley has been suspended for sexual improprieties with employees. Not sure of the details.
Seth Owen
@Mnemosyne: There’s also the fact that these are somewhat differing things and not mutually exclusive is creating a bit of a talking past each other effect.
It can both be true that overall we are safer from urban gun crime AND the subset of mass shootings are growing and an increasing danger.
Brachiator
@Villago Delenda Est:
Yep.
OT and ETA.
Some sources are suggesting that the final vote on the crappy tax bill will happen Tuesday. With the upcoming FCC vote on net neutrality, this is turning out to be a week of some sweet victories (Alabama) and some steps backward.
? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?
@Adam L Silverman:
Okie dokie
Amir Khalid
@Elizabelle:
Guten Morgen! Wie geht’s dir heute?
The Trump administration is all about being and doing the opposite of all that the Obama administration was and did, the more expeditiously (and the more harmful the consequences) the better. By that standard, Ajit Pai is doing a great job.
different-church-lady
About four times a day a troll on a non-political board I visit posts something like “Trump is keeping us safe…!!!!” just to annoy people.
Today’s exchange went like this:
TROLL: Trump is keeping us safe…!!!! ??
NORMAL PERSON: I actually don’t need anyone to make me feel safe. You scared pussy.
TROLL: Tell that to the 4yr old in the Boston bombing.
ME: How about those 500 people in Vegas?
TROLL: [no reply]
Elizabelle
@Amir Khalid: Loving it here! Took a bus to Idstein yesterday (small and beautiful medieval town); snow en route and back. It was beautiful. There’s a plaque to the witches executed near the town tower. Pasta lunch at Sicilian restaurant at town center. Gorgeous Sicilian red wine; rich and like velvet. Type is Nero d’Avola.
Just about no one out on the streets. It was cold!
Today, planned visit to Darmstadt by train to see their Christmas market. After fortifying ourselves with an 11:30 gluhwein at the Wiesbaden Market. Pacing is everything.
Love Germany. The Spain portion of the visit keeps getting shorter and shorter ….
agoqthe_bago
Pretty much. If you want go see where that extra 5 pounds of cheese goes when waiting for an L-Train That’s called a footstool, son.
Cheryl Rofer
@Adam L Silverman: Victor Cha is indeed good news. I just emailed a friend to say that Chris Ford and Andrea Thompson, in two critical nonproliferation/ arms control positions at State, look good relative to others in this administration because they actually know what nuclear weapons are, although I disagree thoroughly with their views.
The thing about Cha is that this is the third time he’s been “nominated,” and he still hasn’t been sent to the Senate for confirmation. I can’t imagine what “nominated” means in that context.