The original poem was written by a pacifist at the height of the Civil War. Many decent people, at that point, despaired the survival of the American experiment — but they didn’t stop fighting.
The generic ballot polling certainly looks great for Democrats, but how is that playing out at the district level? We've polled 36 GOP held Congressional districts since October. Here's what we've found…
— PublicPolicyPolling (@ppppolls) December 20, 2017
I pulled all of @ppppolls’s 2018 House-level polls into a spreadsheet. Average numbers:
Dem margin in 2014/2016 elections: -12%
Dem margin in 2018 polls: 4%
Shift from 2016 to 2018: 15% (shift in national generic ballot is 16%)
the data: https://t.co/6uJ3ex7xeb
— G. Elliott Morris??♂️ (@gelliottmorris) December 20, 2017
These numbers (56% want Democrats in Congress, 38% want Republicans) follow @realDonaldTrump's unfavorable rating quite closely. Make every GOP incumbent answer for it. And let nobody go unchallenged. None of their seats are safe.https://t.co/gfm1jPRhkS
— Al Giordano (@AlGiordano) December 20, 2017
Jerzy Russian
I think Martin said earlier that the 4 fuckheads from the Orange County area are all behind in the polls. It would be good to see that car thief Issa out of Congress, among others.
Trentrunner
Will there be a reckoning?
You can’t get people HERE to agree that Al Franken should resign (effective officially January 2).
I’m 100% convinced that Dems can definitely still screw this up.
After all, we screwed up 2016, didn’t we?
TenguPhule
Will rule of law survive long enough for regime change?
We shall see.
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
I’ll reiterate, unemployment is at 4.1%, inflation is at 2.2%, prime interest rate is 3.75%
Those numbers aren’t going to get discernibly better.
It only gets worse from here.
NobodySpecial
@Trentrunner: Yes, Republicans and their ratfuckers certainly screwed up 2016.
Elizabelle
Good morning, all. Anybody up and about (insomniac or lark)?
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
Drumpf’s numbers are in the low 30s.
Imagine what they would be if he faced a critical media or a crisis or high unemployment.
James E. Powell
Next election is a very long way off.
Yarrow
I saw this segment on CNN where Don Lemon interviews Beto O’Rourke who is running for Senate in Texas against Ted Cruz. One point O’Rourke makes is that for the first time in 25 years all 36 congressional districts in Texas have a Democratic challenger. I think data like that hasn’t yet broken through to the national discussion but it’s a big deal. You can’t win if you don’t run and Democrats are running. in 2018
TenguPhule
@Elizabelle:
Evening here.
Still in shock, I guess. The tax fuckup is going to cause so many bad things next year.
Major Major Major Major
@Trentrunner:
Do we really need the OT when it’s an open thread? What say ye, jackals?
TenguPhule
@James E. Powell:
Assuming we win, its going to be nothing but damage control and repairs for the forseeable future.
Absolutely zero energy or time is going to be left for progress and improvement.
And I blame every Republican, Third Party Voter and Non-voter for it.
It ought to be a fucking crime.
Major Major Major Major
Porgs are only in The Last Jedi because it was easier to CGI over puffins than try to get them out of the shots on Skellig Michael
EBT
Had a few ideas for my little project.
Placing the narrative choices on the artwork, So like the open to open a door would be on the door, and to go down the hall would be on the hallway. Also have an idea on how to implement maps for the places that maps make sense and uhh achievements (also an artwork gallery and bestiary I suppose),
Steve in the ATL
@Elizabelle: insomniac here. Guten morgen!
Hellbastard
Not sure how much more of this nightmare I can take. It’s like an endless barrage of one disaster after another. Three more fucking years of this… three more years.
Brooklyn Dodger
@Elizabelle: Just my regular postpone bedtime time on this here western side.
Raoul
@Yarrow: Saw an article a while back, no idea exactly where/when, saying that the number of Dems for Congress who had raised $10K or more in the odd year before the elex was (guessing, from memory) 5X the typical number with that raised by end November.
It sounded like this was the sort of datapoint that suggests a wave. Lots of other data (and anecdata) are pointing towards real problems for the GOP. I look at Cook from time to time, and the list of Tossups, Lean R and even Likely R (as opposed to Safe R, to be clear) are longer than a couple months ago. And Cook I think is cautious.
So, trentruner and others, this does not have to look like ’16. Not at all.
Yes, we have to hold the whole shebang together with paperclips and rubber bands till the election – including voter roll protection as a key element – but it can be done.
Major Major Major Major
@Raoul: that’s how most things on earth are held together anyway.
Raoul
Also worth noting (again, for some readers) that the BJ Nowhere to Hide fundraiser pulled in over $6K in a day, today. People are motivated on our side.
OK, Kochsuckers are going to have money too. But ultimately, money doesn’t pull on pants (or equivalent) and go vote.
Alabama shows what a serious ground game can produce.
Over the next few months I want to work with others on planning a sort of “freedom summer” redux where we get out and register and support ppl of color in swing (and heck, not-so-swing) states. I’m up for going out and doing leg work — and I hate doorknocking. But I’m motivated.
The GOP is going to be hell-bent to disenfranchise. We have to out-organize them. Help people track down birth certificates, get their damn state IDs, all of that, and early, before the deadlines. These poll tax type things suck, but the way to undo them is to vote the fuckers out and change the laws after we shove our collective boots in their fat, GOP asses.
Raoul
@Elizabelle: And, yes, I’m up late here in the CST.
On a short course of prednisone, so … sleep, whazzat?
Actually, I should sign off and go try. G’night all. More fighting the good fight tomorrow.
Cacti
Will there be anything left to save by the time the reckoning comes?
TenguPhule
@Major Major Major Major:
No Duct tape?
TenguPhule
@Cacti:
Depends on if they decide to go all in and actually cut Social Security and Medicare.
At that point, violence is going to be the inevitable solution.
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
HA!
Duane
@TenguPhule: Funny how bad things get people’s attention. Sad it has to be that way.
Elizabelle
Not interested in late night dysphoria. It’s enervating.
But John Cole put up a good twitter stream on his twitter. Someone named Joshua James; never heard of him. Gonna put it in paragraph form, because I fucking despise 31-item tweets. However, anyone addressing “bearing false witness” goes a long way with me. Agree, totally, on the need for discussing actual, verifiable facts.
linky: https://twitter.com/writerjoshjames/status/943670105136947207
Viva BrisVegas
How much is the Republican gerrymander worth, 3%, 4% or more?
SectionH
@Jerzy Russian: Issa is soooo [insert Deep Voice] running scared right now.
1621. That’s how many votes the car thief won by the last time. Not this time! In the next seat over, I never imagined Duncan Hunter could possibly be in trouble, but he might have to shake a few hands at least.
NobodySpecial
@SectionH: I’m sure he’ll be confused when an envelope of money doesn’t come with every handshake.
Zinsky
What happened when “the Corker provision” was inserted into this horrific legislation in reconciliation without both houses of Congress voting on it was just pure corruption, plain and simple. That sort of garbage happens in banana republics, not the United States of America. We must never let that stand! Also, Democrats need to sharpen up their messaging and learn from master propagandist Frank Luntz. For example, we should refer to the GOP forevermore as “the Russian-affiliated Republican Party“!
Gvg
The problem with pushing for calling a lie a lie is religion. A lot of the GOP lies are cloaked by religion. ABortion for instance.
(((CassandraLeo)))
@Gvg: Even the religious aspects are lies. For instance, the Christian Bible contains nothing that can be interpreted as even remotely prohibiting abortion without twisting oneself into knots applying poetic license, and in fact, interpreted literally, it’s pretty explicit that killing infants under one month of age isn’t even murder. (I don’t agree with this, to be clear; I’m just explaining what it says.) The right-wing anti-abortion liars certainly won’t tell you any of this.
Xentik
@Viva BrisVegas:
The gerrymander is built into the 2016/2018 numbers in the polls above. From what Nate Silver and Sam Wang have said previously, it’s roughly 5%. Remember, however that gerrymandering is a double-edged sword. Yes it gives them a +5% head start in their districts, but at the cost of having all those districts vulnerable in a wave election. If we’re running 15% ahead, they’ll be fighting for their lives in almost every district they’ve gerrymandered.
2liberal
the election season corporate media assault on the democrats and sanity has not started yet. the margins will narrow down as they focus on some trivia or manufactured scandal to move things towards the thugs.
debit
@Trentrunner: Why don’t you eat shit and die? Seriously asking here.
NJDave
@Zinsky: How about Russian-Republicans? If there are any decent Republicans (questionable, I know) they won’t want to be know as such. Maybe a pithy way to introduce some discord into the R party?
schrodingers_cat
@Zinsky: Too long, how about Russian Party
Barbara
@Yarrow: The thing about not fielding challengers everywhere is that this makes a difference not only in that district but statewide, because those districts lack the sustained campaign efforts to get out voters whose votes are counted in statewide elections, even if there is a loss at the local level.
ETA: I have to believe that all the revelations about “Russiabacker” are going to take a toll. I also fervently hope to see more Republicans retiring to leave open seats.
Stan
@Zinsky:
Um, no, that happens daily in America.
Stan
@Barbara:
True and very important.
Also: competing everywhere forces them to defend everywhere. Even running a campaign that is likely to be a loss, you force the Rs to spend money and effort in that district.
StringOnAStick
@Barbara: I wonder if it is better to have R’s that have already shown how tainted they are still be in office when a D runs against them? If an R retires, then the R they put up to run for that seat has the advantage of being able to say “not me, I’m new and clean, no way I am tainted”. I kind of think most of them won’t announce they are not running until the last minute, signing off once they see the polling has stayed against them for a long time, The good thing about that is a new R would have a lot less time to gin up a campaign. Most of them have such huge egos that they won’t want to admit they are on their way to losing, at least until it becomes obvious to even them that their precious ego is in for an electoral drubbing.
No matter what, contest every seat!
Fair Economist
@Xentik:
That’s not what’s happening here. The GOP gerrymander is very tough in addition to very unfair. For it to actually backfire, the Democrats would need to be winning by more than 20%.
What’s primarily happening, according to the polls, is that the Democratic wave is so strong it overcomes a still-functional gerrymander. There is a secondary effect from the Trump realignment. Because voters are changing allegiances the gerrymander is weakened, since voters were placed on how they voted in 2010, now that they are shifting they’re not always gerrymandered “correctly”.
Fair Economist
@Stan:
Also: it improves our standing in other races in the same areas and in the future. Having all the TX districts contested is a boost for Beto O’Rouke, and for municipal and county candidates, who may become stars in the future.
Barbara
@Fair Economist: Gerrymandering is more effective where the population is hidebound and older, as it is in Pennsylvania. The General Assembly in Virginia (along with the congressional delegation) is highly gerrymandered but the population in Northern Virginia has increased, and people who used to buy in closer in suburbs have expanded into further away suburbs and that is primarily what made the last election such an earthquake for Republican HOD members (House of Delegates). So in addition to changing allegiances among suburban voters who are highly sensitized to the impact of any measure on schools, places that are growing are much harder to lock in for any length of time. The reddest corners of Virginia not only are not by and large growing as fast, some of them actually have declining populations. And for the sweetest payback in recent memory, Ed Gillespie was one of the masterminds behind the 2010 gerrymander. He so deserved what he got.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch: I am with you, so far the only “win” this year is this tax bill that is basically a bribe to their voters not to abandoned the GOP. Just speaking from personal experience, when you have to bribe a girlfriend to keep her from leaving the, relationship is over, so I don’t see how that bill really helps them. The idea “The GOP can’t handle making a ham sandwich” is already there.
It’s not impossible for the GOP to settle down and act respectable the next year, but that demands Trump stop being a man child, and the Turtle and Ryan to stop acting like punks. I don’t see that happening. If anything Trump will undermine any improvement for the GOP because Trump will see any improvement in the poll numbers as vindication and time for him to let his freak flag fly.
tam1MI
@Trentrunner: My heavens, you’re certainly singing a different tune now then the day Franken announced his resignation.
What you are experiencing is called a “Pyrhhic victory”.
TenguPhule
@Elizabelle:
Gird your loins on this one. We’ve been trying to get this done since 2000 and it has been nothing but an unending stream of disappointment.
mskitty
@Trentrunner: Second debit above – ESAD now. Improve the neighborhood.