Gallup reports that the uninsured rate is increasing:
The percentage of U.S. adults without health insurance was essentially unchanged in the fourth quarter of 2017, at 12.2%, but it is up 1.3 percentage points from the record low of 10.9% found in the last quarter of 2016.
I think that number will continue to increase over the next couple of years. Here are the factors that will lead to more people uncovered:
- Higher premiums for off-Exchange/non-subsidized enrollment
- Less marketing and outreach for on-Exchange/subsidized enrollment
- No individual mandate
- Messaging environment that deprioritizes coverage
- Medicaid work requirements and hassle barriers
There are some factors that could lead to more people covered
-
- Continued aging into Medicare
- Cherry picking of healthy individual market folks into short term plans at very low premiums.
- Continued Silverloading due to the non-funding of CSR.
- 1332 waivers that prioritize reinsurance using the CSR windfall to lower premiums for off-Exchange individuals.
- Insurer/state level marketing increases to compensate for negative federal messaging environment
I think that as long as the fundamental structure of the ACA is in place and even if it acts as a high cost high risk pool, there is an upper limit on the number of people who are uninsured. I am not quite sure where that limit is but I strongly believe it is significantly less than 18%.
mapaghimagsik
So much winning.
Jeffro
Catherine Rampell has (as usual) a great column out today on ‘backdoor repeal of Obamacare via regulations’ – worth everyone’s time and re-tweeting, etc etc
Basically a ‘poll tax’ on Medicaid.
I don’t remember a ‘poll tax’ being required for people to access their mortgage interest deduction, or lower pass-through corporation tax rates, do you?
WereBear
But to Make Amurrica Grate Again we have to get rid of Medicare, I hear.
sherparick
For the multi-millionaire and billionaire donors who control the Republican Party, its all about “freedom” in that they will feel ever so free once the entire Great Society and New Deal or repeal and its “1928” in America once more (or even better “1858.”
mai naem mobile
Dolt45 will first say ‘fake news, fake news’ and then follow it with ‘its tHar Black Muslin Kenyan Obama’s fault.’
Patricia Kayden
Trump and his ilk should be ecstatic.
marcopolo
Hey, maybe we can make it 3 years in a row for a decreasing life expectancy in the USA!
Increasing the number of uninsured combined with rising opioid OD deaths should do the trick. After all, the kid (I kid not) running the government’s Opioid response seems like a surefire disaster.
Meet the 24-year-old Trump campaign worker appointed to help lead the government’s drug policy office
Neldob
I’m sure he’s doing a hellofajob.
TriassicSands
The uninsured rate is going up.
Success! The Republican health care plan is working.
Balconesfault
More uninsured means more medical bankruptcy which means more assets available to predatory capitalists. Win!