WE WON! The PA Supreme Court just held that PA’s congressional districts violate the PA constitution and ordered a new map for 2018!
— Daniel Jacobson (@Dan_F_Jacobson) January 22, 2018
And now I will disagree with Cole.
What was the Senate deal?
- Fund CHIP
- Cut some ACA taxes that no one really likes
- Fund the rest of the government for three weeks
The deal removes one hostage (CHIP) from danger. The Senate will probably pass a DREAM-like bill soon which jams the House where it either passes after Ryan Boehners himself or there is a clear accountability moment. It is hard to enact a positive agenda when one does control any calendar/agenda setting power but this deal cleans things up a bit for another go at DACA/DREAM in three weeks.
Cermet
This is a big win; getting Chip off the table so black-mail isn’t part of the next rounds of talks is critical. Over nine million children’s health was in danger. I call this a huge win just by itself!
kindness
With all due respect agreeing to vote for closure on a budget bill that doesn’t fund S-Chip & a Dreamer to citizenship bill written into it means we end up holding a bag of nothing. I’d rather keep it all closed than be Susan Collins any day, including today.
Mathguy
I think this and what Leonhardt at the FYFNYT are correct. Don’t play identity politics, keep hammering the GOP for their mendacity and help people when you can.
randy khan
Your take on the Senate deal is the same as mine – we got one Democratic priority addressed (not incidentally removing it as a hostage to be taken) and another pushed to the top of the agenda, where what happens will make it clear what the parties believe and support.
Betty Cracker
What would a “clear accountability moment” look like?
Matt McIrvin
This is great news. They lost a federal case in PA, right?
David Anderson
@kindness: CHIP will be funded for six years and there is another whack at DREAMER/DACA in 21 days
randy khan
@kindness:
Uh, S-CHIP is in the bill.
Betty Cracker
@Mathguy: ALL politics is identity politics. It just gets called that when it’s not centered on white men.
Roger Moore
I’m inclined to agree with you rather than Cole. The Democrats have very little leverage, especially because unlike the Republicans they genuinely want the government to function. Extracting a meaningful concession in exchange for a short-term spending bill the Democrats want more than the Republicans anyway is a win. It may not be the big win we want, but it’s a win for the kids who will have healthcare coverage again. And even if McConnell is a rat and kills the DACA bill, or if Ryan does it for him, they’ll have leverage again in a few weeks.
As long as the Democrats succeed in getting something like DACA passed into law, the Dreamers are likely to forgive them for the temporary scare along the way. If they can’t get something like DACA passed, they have a good chance to prove it’s the Republicans who killed it by fighting hard for a bill now and when the continuing resolution expires.
rumpole
This. It is (really) a compromise. And if the DREAM Act can get 60–Ryan’s goose is well and truly cooked.
John Cole
I agree. I was wrong and premature. The Democrats did a good job.
MisterForkbeard
I agree – getting CHIP funded is a real victory, and we get a promise of a vote on DACAfix within 21 days. This is ALSO a victory – if the vote happens, it will either pass (and Democrats will get credit) or it will fail (and Republicans get blame). If the vote doesn’t happen, the Republicans get the blame.
Now, “blame” will be poor solace for any dreamer kicked out of the country they belong in. But we can’t FORCE the Republicans to vote on this. If they don’t want a DACAfix we won’t get one no matter what we do. And this weekend’s press coverage has shown that the media is (as always) going to blame Democrats for something Republicans caused, so the shutdown will rapidly turn to a negative for Democrats.
This is what we can get. Some positives and some movement forward.
EDIT: This is much better than I’d thought: As per Crooks and Liars: If no DACA resolution by 2/15 a vote is triggered on clean DREAM Act.
randy khan
@Matt McIrvin:
This looks like a state case, which is even better news because it’s based entirely on state law and will be very hard to appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court because it doesn’t depend on federal law.
schrodingers_cat
@Betty Cracker: Agreed. Fucking Mark Shields, the most useless hack on TV was saying again last Friday that Ds lost because of identity politics. I mean seriously, calling entire countries shitholes is not identity politics but standing up for the rights of minorities is. Retire already, Jowly McJowls of concern.
trollhattan
Sounds like very good news from PA. As to the Senate agreement, it seems as though the Rs have blinked here.
I was lukewarm at best about Schumer taking over for boxin’ Harry Reid but he’s quickly earning my respect. Nancy SMASH still has the spark, also, too. Perhaps keeping DACA on the news and in the public eye the next few weeks gives it a better chance. We’ll see.
guachi
Unfortunately, much of this deal working depends on Flake not being a flake and Graham standing firm enough AS WELL as shaky Democrats not caving.
I’ll take it, though.
jl
@schrodingers_cat: ” Mark Shields, the most useless hack…”
Why I don’t watch much TV. Adults bring a kid here when he or she is 3 or 4 years old. Now the kid is 20 or 25, and in college, or holding down a job, starting a family or a business. What is the identity of that kid? American, that is what. And deporting that kid would amount to a human rights crime IMHO. These brain dead prattlers can’t think of anything but foisting rotting CW stereotype gossip on the public and fraudulently pretending it is analysis or some kind of useful information.
Was Lindsey Graham practicing identity politics too, when he voted no?
Most of the US corporate news media is a worthless fraud.
trollhattan
@MisterForkbeard:
What’s the sense of Florida, Texas and Arizona becoming more vulnerable for Republicans if DREAMers lose their status? They, and California will be the most heavily impacted and evening news video of ICE marching accountants and grad students into vans will not go over well.
Latino voter registration is way up in California, FWIW.
MisterForkbeard
@trollhattan: Yep! The only way this shakes out badly is if… Republicans back out of an open promise, or Republicans vote down the clean bill.
If they vote down the clean bill, it’s pretty clear that Dems could never have saved the Dreamers.
The only thing that bugs me about this is that Trump is going to take credit for “solving” the Dreamer problem, even though it caused by him and was only accomplished in spite of him.
Mike in NC
New maps were also ordered for North Carolina but nobody seems in a hurry to act this year.
MisterForkbeard
@trollhattan: Dunno. I have no idea how that would play out. Would Dreamer-sympathizers be incredibly angry at Republicans and go out to vote? I’d hope so, but the usual suspects will also be out saying that Democrats “failed” and didn’t really want to protect them. Who knows how much influence they’ll have?
Mathguy
@schrodingers_cat: I don’t disagree with you or Betty on this. It’s more of a question, from my POV, of messaging in the MSM. George Lackoff has written a lot of great stuff on this. The Dems need to start working on a better way of presenting this issue to the special snowflakes known as white voters so that the MSM and GOP can’t keep repeating their garbage without consequences.
Ruviana
@trollhattan: Would love to have it up in TX and AZ where it might swing a state. CA will be blue no matter what.
bystander
Thanks, Dave. After the earlier “we are all screwed give up give up” thread, it’s nice to read a voice of sanity.
glory b
PA Supreme court also got amicus briefs in our favor from several places, like the Pittsburgh Foundation and the Heinz Endowment, criticizing the map. This is the first time they filed amicus briefs. There was an article in the Pittsburgh Post Gazette the other day about it, noting how remarkable that was. Representatives from the foundations agreed, and said this has become so important an issue they felt they had to weigh in.
As someone said, amicus briefs don’t change votes, but they can serve to strengthen a wavering justice.
As I’ve mentioned before, we have a 5-2 Dem advantage on the PA Supreme Court, so I was certain they’d weigh in at least by the time for the census.
MisterForkbeard
@Ruviana: True, but in CA it’s possible to kick EVEN MORE republicans out of congressional office, which would be fantastic.
Getting rid of their state legislature seats would be a real boon as well – we’re still divided enough that a couple of crossover Dems can fuck things up for everyone, and I’d rather pad that cushion.
catclub
@trollhattan:
sounded to me like something that will promptly be appealed to USSC – even if only for delay purposes.
I have my doubts that the NC gerrymander will be fixed this year, even if a ruling comes down on it this july.
Eolirin
@Ruviana: It might make a difference in some house races, even in deep blue CA, and we need every single one of those we can get.
Cheryl Rofer
Good point here.
Roger Moore
@catclub:
There’s no grounds. The ruling was based on state law, not federal, so the federal courts don’t get a say.
trollhattan
@Ruviana:
Even in California it might be possible to put, say, Devin Nunes’ seat into play. That would be a nice gain!
Roger Moore
@Cheryl Rofer:
Another interesting question is what happens if it passes through Congress but Trump vetoes it and there aren’t enough votes to override. How does that affect the Republicans?
MisterForkbeard
@trollhattan: Kicking Nunes out would be incredibly satisfying after the stunts he’s pulled this year.
@Roger Moore: That’s STILL really bad for Republicans, though it’ll make “republicans” look much more moderate than Trump… which they aren’t.
It’s still be bad for them politically, but not nearly as bad as Republicans voting down the bill.
scott (the other one)
@randy khan: OUTSTANDING. Came here to ask this very thing. Fantastic news.
trollhattan
@MisterForkbeard:
His district wraps around Fresno to the east and is nearly 45% Hispanic. Drip, drip, drip….
Barbara
@Roger Moore: @catclub: Roger Moore beat me to it! A state interpreting its own state constitution is not subject to federal oversight unless someone is alleging that the state constitution violates the federal constitution, which they would have had to do a long time ago, procedurally, in order to preserve anything for appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court. One of the only bright spots on November 8, 2016 was that the two male Democratic candidates were elected to the PA supreme court, giving Democrats the majority, which, as we see, is clearly an advantage for redistricting.
marcopolo
@Mike in NC: Perhaps you need to be brought up to speed. Fed District Court ordered new NC maps. That was appealed to the SC. Supreme Court put the ruling on hold. Supreme Court is currently hearing 2 cases regarding gerrymandering in WI and I think MI. They are expected to announce their ruling on those in June or July. In the meantime, enough Supremes decided they didn’t want the lower court ruling to go forward & possibly be vacated by the SC a few months later.
It sucks, but there is a crappy logic to it.
John Revolta
@MisterForkbeard: I disagree. The average low-info voter doesn’t know from Congress; Trump is the HEAD Republican………………..the optics would be even worse. And the infighting would skyrocket.
WaterGirl
@Cheryl Rofer: I keep reading stories that show the deportation have already started.
WaterGirl
@randy khan: Oh, thank you for that. I was picturing the US Supreme Court reversing that just like they did for NC last week.
clay
@schrodingers_cat:
Whoa, now. There’s a long drop to the bottom to get to the most useless hack on TV. Shields probably isn’t even in the bottom quartile.
JaneSays
I’m fairly certain that 6 years of CHIP funding was already included in the CR that passed the House but failed in the Senate last Friday, so I’m not sure what exactly was gained here, other than some nebulous promise to address DACA in coming weeks.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/18/us/politics/government-shutdown-house-vote.html
5th paragraph:
In addition to keeping the government open, the bill would provide funding for the Children’s Health Insurance Program for six years, and it would delay or suspend a handful of taxes imposed by the Affordable Care Act.
Mike in NC
@clay: First candidate in my mind for “most useless hack on TV” is always Chris Matthews.
burnspbesq
@Mike in NC:
The Supremes granted a stay pending filing of a cert petition, over two dissents. Which sucks but wasn’t surprising to anyone who has a rudimentary understanding of Federal appellate procedure.
clay
@Mike in NC: Sheesh. It’s like Chuck Todd doesn’t even exist!
Naw, Matthews has his uses. He’s like a dog that won’t let go of a bone, but when that bone is worth gnawing on, he’s good.
efgoldman
@MisterForkbeard:
A perp walk while he’s still in office would be even more so.
efgoldman
@efgoldman: No matter how short a thread is, when I comment near the bottom it gets stepped on.
Old man gets no respect
chopper
this deal could really fuck ryan over. which is great.
phein55
@Ruviana: There are still Republican Congressmen from California, and that is a thing that can be changed.
geg6
@Mike in NC:
This is a state case. The feds have no standing and the PA SC not only struck down their shitty map, they gave them instructions for how to fix it. This is very unlikely to go to the USSC and even if the state GOP insists on sending it there, I very much doubt they’d take the case.
opiejeanne
@Ruviana: I’m hoping for some of California’s red districts to go blue. Some of the worst Rs in Congress are from CA, like Nunes and McCarthy
daverave
@opiejeanne: @opiejeanne:
Don’t forget the carpetbagging Tom McClintock!
J R in WV
@catclub:
You can’t typically appeal a State Supreme Court decision based solely upon State Constitution issues to the US Supreme Court. The US Supremes hear federal cases, not state cases.
Bonnie
Provided Trump doesn’t drop a bomb on North Korea, destroying South Korea, Japan, and parts of China between now and February 8, the Olympics start in South Korea on February 8. Thus, TV coverage of the Olympics will swamp any thing the idiot president* will do. I look forward to watching the Olympics and no politics.
Groucho48
@Bonnie:
Trump: Hold my Diet Coke….