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You are here: Home / Economics / C.R.E.A.M. / Our day will come

Our day will come

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Don’t freak out about the generic ballot polls. We’ve got enthusiasm on our side. We should have three years of continuous momentum.

Let’s start by taking back the House this November.

Give here to the Balloon Juice fund that’s split equally between all eventual Democratic nominees in all House districts currently held by Republicans.

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64Comments

  3. 3.

    geg6

    Is there some new poll out that has a generic Dem winning by less than 7? If not, I’m not worried.

    In fact, I’m not worried even if it is by less than 7. They are starting to use likely voters, which is completely biased toward the GOP.

  4. 4.

    TenguPhule

    We’ve got enthusiasm on our side. We should have three years of continuous momentum.

    We thought that in 2008 too.

  9. 9.

    ruemara

    *smashes head into a brick wall*

    This will never be about enthusiasm. It will be strictly about out organizing the obstruction. That’s it. Forget the past. This is unexplored territory and the only thing to do is organize, register, signup to be poll watchers or elections workers and fight. Everything you know about “messaging”, polls and enthusiasm should be chucked out the window.

  12. 12.

    TenguPhule

    @Doug!:

    I thought we did in 2006 and I was right.

    We had events working in our political favor in 2007 and 2008. That’s what scared out a lot of the vote, economy going into full meltdown.

    Lot of people seem stupider and less sane this time.

  14. 14.

    different-church-lady

    @ruemara:

    This is unexplored territory…

    Unexplored here within the USA. Other countries have needed to deal with it within living memory.

  15. 15.

    TenguPhule

    @? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?: “Amateurs talk strategy. Professionals talk logistics.”

    A lot of the projected 2018 likely-wins for GOP seats are going to be on razor edge margins. Even huge swings in our favor in enemy territory still only give +5 total, which means all the GOP needs to do is scrape back some of their faithful to get back in while our folks have to keep and hold those huge gains. Which means they need to show results to the voters. The GOP knows this too and you can bet they’re gonna reprise 2009 again.

  19. 19.

    ruemara

    @Yutsano: TBF, I want them to run and spend money – tons of it – in every race. Bleed that $400 mil from the Kochs dry. Death by a thousand cuts is still death.

  20. 20.

    Yutsano

    @ruemara: I want that $400 million spent, wasted…and they still lose both majorities. The best part? I could see exactly how they would blow it. Buying millions in TV and print ads that fewer voters are seeing. Clueless messaging that backfires all over the place. Oh yeah. Let’s make them waste their fortunes. And then we take everything back.

  21. 21.

    Raoul

    Hey Doug, do you know how to set up a new nominee fund? Rick Nolan has decided to retire at the end of this term in MN-08. It’s gonna be a tough one, Von tRumpening won the 8th, aka our Iron Range.
    Eeep.

  23. 23.

    Yutsano

    @Raoul: Do you know what the curre4ct Cook PVI is? I bet someone more astute than I am in finding those things could fish that out. And in the environment it’s best to assume nothing.

  25. 25.

    Frankensteinbeck

    Yes, yes. I’ve been told the Revolution is losing steam for a year now, only to see the actual votes blow every expectation out of the water. Even the few liberals in the media seem incapable of believing something is really happening. Thank goodness the women and minorities leading the charge don’t give a flying fuck when anyone tells them they’re discouraged.

    Seriously, thank you, ladies. My demographic is trying to burn us all alive.

  29. 29.

    Yutsano

    @BillinGlendaleCA: I mean I get them every now and again for ransome reasons. But THIS ONE TIME I just needed to fix a bloody stupid typo. Ugh.

    @different-church-lady:

    Maybe it’s not a Revolution, just people finally getting off the sidelines.

    Maybe that, in and of itself in the US, is the revolution.

  30. 30.

    ? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?

    @Frankensteinbeck:
    Liberals are always very panicky, like a herd of gazelles. We seem to waver at the slightest sign of danger/failure, which are usually false.

  31. 31.

    Frankensteinbeck

    @different-church-lady:
    I admit, I don’t like labels like ‘Revolution’. But over the last year, Democrats have vastly, insanely outperformed every election. The drivers seem to be women and minorities, but however it breaks down, liberals are angry like they have not been at any time in modern history. It hasn’t slowed down, it has gotten more intense. I was not expecting the women’s marches this year to be bigger than last year.

  34. 34.

    Raoul

    @Yutsano: Nolan won the last race 50.2% to 49.6% against a rich kid whose parents own Mills Fleet Farm (second losing run by Mills). Cook says R+4.
    On the other hand, Obama won the 8th in 2008, 53%-44.5%.
    It’s quite white up there, and there’s a bit fight over mining on the Range.

  35. 35.

    TenguPhule

    @Frankensteinbeck:

    I’ve been told the Revolution is losing steam for a year now, only to see the actual votes blow every expectation out of the water.

    The real trick is going to be seeing if we can keep them re-elected.

  36. 36.

    Mary G

    @Frankensteinbeck: Yeah, the second Women’s March last month convinced me that I am not alone in my ever-increasing rage. Just today I saw that the president blocked Jennie Willoughby (the second Mrs. Porter, who took out the restraining order) on Twitter and I just got blazing angry all over again.

  37. 37.

    ? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?

    So apparently Amazon is thinking about building its own delivery service.

  38. 38.

    ? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?

    @TenguPhule:
    True. This is a multi-year effort and as long as the GOP and Trump are this awful, it should hopefully be sustained.

  40. 40.

    TenguPhule

    @? ?? Goku (aka The Hope of the Universe) ? ?:

    and as long as the GOP and Trump are this awful, it should hopefully be sustained.

    You weren’t here for the purity left backlash of 2010.

    Republicans gum shit up and Democrats get the blame for not fixing it fast enough.

    We’ll see if the DNC hired better communications coordinators this time.

  44. 44.

    Citizen Alan

    @TenguPhule:

    What’s this “we” crap? I for one knew perfectly well that we’d get pummeled in 2010 because of how the conservative media demagogued the hell out of O’care and everything else positive Obama did. There were plenty of districts that demographically should have been red that turned blue in reaction to Bush’s incompetence and venality. And there were also plenty of Dems who voted for the ACA knowing full well it would end their careers. We’re in a struggle to save Democracy from the Evil Empire. It would be foolish to ever thing the battle was won for good.

  45. 45.

    Frankensteinbeck

    @TenguPhule:
    I was here for the backlash election the forecasters predicted, when white America went absolutely apeshit that a black president was succeeding at the job. Then when they got their wave, they gerrymandered every state the had to the utmost degree because they knew they couldn’t hold it otherwise.

    That still was nothing compared to the signs of a wave we’ve seen over the last year.

    @Mary G:
    I know that I have heard over and over from women how infuriated they were by how Hillary was treated, and when she lost, they swore ‘never again.’

    From my observations, the ACA fight had a big part, too. A whole lot of liberals got slapped over the head with how big the stakes were.

    I’m guessing America following Obama with Trump made African-Americans similarly angry, but I haven’t heard the testimonies like I have from women.

  47. 47.

    Mary G

    @Frankensteinbeck: Exhibit B is Porter’s “explanation” for each abuse allegation. In addition to the amazing attacking vase, here is how the second wife’s window breaking occurred:

    Rob Porter says he didn't punch glass as alleged:"Porter said he and Willoughby were separated at the time. He returned to the house to collect his clothes, and while tapping the glass door pane with his index finger, his knuckle went through the glass."https://t.co/uDLwv7gUbn— Tim Mak (@timkmak) February 12, 2018

    That is one strong index finger and typical abuser minimizing.

  48. 48.

    TenguPhule

    @Mary G:

    and while tapping the glass door pane with his index finger, his knuckle went through the glass.

    And of course the rest of his finger was unmarred.

  49. 49.

    JPL

    Yesterday I spoke with one of my sons about the importance of remaining civil, and finding common ground. A while back I happened to sit next to Betty Price and we had a civil conversation about neighborhood issues. That was after her husband resigned but before the offensive comments about wanting those with hiv to be quaranteed. Any how.. OMG… Keep me away from her. .

    Price opened her remarks by saying she “borrowed heavily” from online sources to develop the list, and that they were “completely tongue in cheek.” She added, to laughs, “remember, in America, nobody has the right not to be offended.”
    She then listed a string of “beautiful and smart” Republican women, that included NBC News anchor Megyn Kelly, former First Lady Laura Bush, ex-Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and First Lady Melania Trump.
    “The Democrats have Rachel Mad-cow,” a reference to MSNBC host Rachel Maddow, “Rosanne Barr, Rosie O’Donnell, Whoopi Goldberg, Michelle Obama, Elizabeth ‘Pocahontas’ Warren, Madeleine Albright and of course Hillary Clinton.”

    https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/democrats-call-for-betty-price-resign-over-crass-remarks-about-liberal-women/WxmQMXBaRehkOBZuBPRNyO/

    If I happen to be near her again, I’m going to ask about Melania’s nude pictures.

  50. 50.

    JPL

    @JPL: Here’s more of Price’s comments in case you can’t link to the article

    Later in her remarks, Price said that “liberal achievements include the invention of group therapy, the domestication of cats, group hugs and the evolution of their women to have higher testosterone levels than many of their men.”

  52. 52.

    MisterForkbeard

    @JPL: I feel like a better castigation than just firing is if we had a sustained “if you’re a woman and you see Betty Price, slap her in the goddamned face” campaign that lasted for the next 2-3 years.

  54. 54.

    ruemara

    @Frankensteinbeck: We’ve been angry all this time, but we also had to survive white America. Be happy you don’t know we’re angry.

    @Yutsano: Always remember that they leech off of themselves. They can be true believers and be willing to suck up that cash ineffectively.

  57. 57.

    opiejeanne

    @TenguPhule: Fuck! Would you just take a chill pill? We are talking about what can be done and how and you’re just throwing these stupid comments about how this went wrong and that went wrong, ad infinitum.

    Join the conversation, don’t do this shitting on other people’s comments to show how much you love gloom and doom.

  58. 58.

    opiejeanne

    @JPL: Cats are not truly domesticated, and are responsible for their own decision to live with humans and behave in a domesticated manner some of the time.

  59. 59.

    opiejeanne

    @Yutsano: that reminds me. We need to go to the cat store, as my husband calls it. I think we will be ok for tonight but the cat food is getting low.

  60. 60.

    James E. Powell

    @opiejeanne:

    I’m not shitting on your comment to show how much I love gloom and doom, though I’m sure it seems that way sometimes. I really prefer joyful exuberance and the occasional schadenfreude sack dance.

    Anyway, I can’t speak for @TengPhule, but I don’t count the sporadic special election results as much as I do the general trend line from 2010 through 2016. Other than the most talented & successful Democrat of his era getting re-elected, Democrats have been getting waxed all over the country since 2010.

    I don’t want to re-argue what has or has not been done in the last three national elections, but I do wish I had some idea what the Democratic candidates are going to be selling this cycle. It is, after all, an election year. The message has got to be more than “we hate Trump” – that’s gotten every voter it’s going to get. We need a positive “We are the Democrats. Vote for us and we will A, B, & C” We can argue about what those three things are or should be, but the powers that be have to realize that when we don’t have a short, clear statement of who we are and what we’re going to do, the Republicans and press/media will continue to pound the message that Democrats will raise your taxes and give money and free stuff to black people, provide free health insurance to immigrants, and open the borders to allow terrorists to enter the country and kill puppies. And disrespect our troops.

    We can talk about this forever, I know, and I’m sorry if what I say isn’t pleasant, but my expectation is that the people who voted for Trump are going to turn out for him again because they don’t go to the polls for policy choices, they go because for them every general election is Armageddon for White America and they do not want to lose. I don’t think that is true of special elections, which seem to turn on very local, very personal to the particular candidates issues.

    C’mon, you know this.

  63. 63.

    WaterGirl

    @James E. Powell: No one can accurately predict what is going to happen in the upcoming elections. We are living in what we would have previously thought to be an alternate reality where the racists and the haters have won, so any predictive ability we might have in a normal year is laughable in these times.

    But the special elections have shown us that if we work our asses off, and if we’re smart about our use of resources, and if we work hard to get everyone IDs etc, and we work with local groups to get out the vote, that elections are winnable.

    We can’t guarantee the outcome, but we sure as hell can play our best game in turning people out. We need passion and hard work, not predictions of doom and doom about the outcome.

    What is it they say? If you’re not part of the solution, you’re part of the problem.

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