A representative from the Republic of Korea delegation that has come to DC to brief the President, National Security Advisor, etc on the results of the recent ROK-DPRK bilateral meetings. The announcement is expected momentarily. The live feed is below.
It is expected that the announcement will include a readout of a letter from Kim Jong Un to the President regarding reestablishing talks with the US in exchange for freezing the DPRK’s nuclear weapons program. This would be an important step. As Cheryl has covered here and at her own site, the DPRK has reached breakout. The issue is no longer preventing them from developing a nuclear weapon, rather it is keeping them from finishing the miniaturization process, as well as preventing proliferation and moving towards positive containment and deterrence.
Voice of America published an interesting analytical piece detailing the problems facing the US in dealing with the DPRK. Specifically, the US’s dearth of expertise.
Aaron David Miller, a senior analyst at the Wilson Center, has advised a number of Republican and Democratic secretaries of state.
Miller told VOA he believes if this recent offer of direct talks does represent a transformative change in North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s position, then it is too valuable an opportunity to waste, and the U.S. should test it — first through discreet dialogue before any structured negotiations take place.
Asked who in the Trump administration could prepare and conduct sensitive, complicated and grueling direct talks with North Korea, Miller drew a blank.
“Right now, it is hard to identify any single individual or team of individuals that has both the negotiating experience and knowledge of the history, the cultural and political sensitivity, and knowledge of how the North Koreans behave and how they see the world,” he said.
He added: “In this republic, you might have to reach for people who have had experience and who are part of another administration. This administration may not be willing to do that.”
Miller said if this offer of talks becomes serious, it would mean months, if not years, of negotiations. He said the president has created some “running room” for diplomacy, and that all sides are in a better position than they were before.
Updated at 7:12 PM EST:
Kim Jong Un is offering a freeze in the DPRK’s nuclear weapons program in exchange for talks. Kim is also offering denuclearization as an outcome of the negotiations and that he recognizes and accepts that ROK-US bilateral military exercises will continue.
This is a very important development. Time will tell what it actually leads to.
Updated at 10:30 PM EST:
Now that more details about the communication from Kim Jong Un, that it was an oral offer, not in writing, there is both more and less here than meets the eye. As Cheryl rightly points out in comments, the DPRK puts everything in writing, that they didn’t do so here tells us that this is just the opening of the gambit. Since nothing is in writing, it is actually unclear what the President has agreed to in exchange for meeting with Kim. What I mean by unclear is that there is what Kim has verbally offered via the ROK – a freeze on his nuclear weapons program, recognition that the US-ROK bilateral military exercises will continue, and an invitation for talks about denuclearization – and what he is actually willing to negotiate. What he’s already gotten, with the President’s quick acceptance of the verbal offer is an elevation of status for himself and the DPRK. Moreover, it is unclear whether any of this was staffed through the Interagency. So I’m not really sure what, if anything, is going to come of this invitation. I am sure that what was verbally offered by Kim via the ROK is much less than first met the eye.
For instance:
“At this point we’re not even talking about negotiations,” just a meeting between the two leaders.
— Steve Herman (@W7VOA) March 9, 2018
Stay tuned! And frosty!
Open thread!
TenguPhule
/Looks at North Korea
/Looks at White House
WASF.
debbie
Doesn’t Jared have Thursday afternoons open?
Corner Stone
This is ridiculous. KJU is not going to give up his nuclear program.
Baud
I suppose this postpones nuclear war for a bit. I’ll take it.
Jeffro
The one thing we can be sure of is that this will be blown all out of proportion.
Evelyn Farkas on MSNBC right now getting paid to essentially say the same thing.
Baud
@Jeffro: Peace in our time.
Adam L Silverman
@Corner Stone: As long as it moves the possibility of war further off, then you take your short to medium term profits where you can.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@debbie: I don’t think Jared’s been to Korea, but Ivanka has.
Jeffro
@Corner Stone: exactly
Don’t they pull this on a regular two year cycle or so ?
? ?? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ? ?
@Baud:
If this goes South and Trump gets a lot of people killed, could he be declared a war criminal? Then again, if Bush wasn’t, I don’t see Trump getting the Hague treatment.
debbie
@Corner Stone:
I bet he’s gambling that Trump will chicken out of face-to-face talks.
Adam L Silverman
@Baud:
Fixed it for you!//
Corner Stone
@Jeffro: Once every different presidential term.
Jeffro
@Adam L Silverman: KJU: “he’s thinking of making WHO his national Security Advisor? BOLTON? Oh shit…”
‘Madman Theory’ on steroids
Chet Murthy
Adam, ISTR that NK offered “direct bilateral talks” previously — many times in fact. And we always countered with “we’ll only talk with you if all the parties (JP, CN, SK) are at the table.”
What’s changed? I mean, other than “we’ll stop (pinky swear, b/c you’re not gonna be able to send in inspectors to verify) our nuke program”.
Corner Stone
@debbie: KJU will demand to meet in NK.
Brachiator
@debbie:
We still don’t have an ambassador to South Korea. But right now, it doesn’t matter.
This will be promoted as a tremendous diplomatic victory for Trump and a vindication of his hard line approach to North Korea.
Jeffro
@debbie: DJT: “they don’t have a McDonald’s near the summit site? OR a KFC?? Absolutely fucking not! Deal’s off”
More seriously, Kim just knows Trumpov is desperate for a PR win
Yutsano
@Adam L Silverman: What’s weird is I don’t even think we can pin this sudden whiplash on the Chinese. Even Xi was willing to go along with some sanctions (with Vladdie boy making up some slack but that’s a subject for another time) but that probably has more to do with Xi not having the connections Jiang did. Kim Jong Un is crafty but not suicidal. I wonder if the famine got so bad Un can’t even feed troops anymore.
evodevo
Stumpy as usual is trying to take credit …well, in a twisted way he’s right … countries all over the world have seen what a sh&*show this admin is, and have concluded they are on their own. So S. Korea has decided it will have to do the diplomatic work they used to depend on the US to do lol, and seek to normalize relations.
Baud
Three words. Trump Tower Pyongyang.
Corner Stone
@Adam L Silverman: It just allows NK breathing room to continue miniaturizing the payload.
Cheryl Rofer
@Baud: Good point, but what happens when the talks fail and Trump’s ego is damaged?
Baud
@Cheryl Rofer: Hopefully, by then, Mueller will have done his thing.
Cheryl Rofer
Mike J
TenguPhule
@Baud:
What would you like to wager that Trump thinks attacking North Korea before or during the meeting would be a brilliant negotiating tactic?
debbie
@Jeffro:
So why help him?
Adam L Silverman
@Jeffro: Farkas is correct to be skeptical. But again, we are playing for time. If we can buy some, that is a good thing.
Baud
@Cheryl Rofer:
With Trump as president, aren’t we in fact more equal?
joel hanes
The Olympics did it: the nearly unprecedented opportunity for Koreans to make friendships accross the DMZ, and for the North to find out that the South still considered them brothers and sisters and wants to help.
Trump will take credit, and some will believe him.
Brachiator
@Cheryl Rofer:
Trump’s ego comes pre-damaged. If the talks fail, it wasn’t Trump’s fault, he never wanted them, never had anything to do with them.
Trump only takes credit. He never accepts blame. That’s how he rolls.
mad citizen
We don’t enough expertise!?! Pish posh. I’m quite comfortable with a negotiating team led by Dennis Rodman and Gary Busey.
GOVCHRIS1988
Ok, I’ll tell you how this will goddamn go.
Trump wants to be seen as the greatest diplomat, EVER! Un wants something for his poor dictatorship + the legitimacy of his country being recognized by America. Trump’s dumbass will go over to North Korea. Un will flatter his ass off, say that if he gets what he wants from the U.S., he will halt his nuclear program. Trump will vociferously agree to whatever, say this is a win for him, and he should get the Nobel for it. Then when he’s out of North Korean airspace, Un reneges on that policy, because whose gonna check him boo, and start up the program again. Yep, see it now. Gonna happen. Big Orange Fatass fail coming again.
Mustang Bobby
Nixon went to China. We still went after him for criminal activity and nailed his ass.
I’m all in favor of peace as opposed to nuclear war, but this sounds like another “Oh, look at the kitty!” moment.
Corner Stone
@Cheryl Rofer: Exactly. Iraq and Libya, anyone?
Adam L Silverman
@Chet Murthy: What’s changed is this President hates multilateral talks. He only likes bilateral negotiations. He thinks it gives him an advantage.
Cermet
Well, if anyone but the rump was president, this could be a great opening; well, bloody hands bush the sock puppet would be just as bad. Freezing their weapons in-exchange for lifting sanctions and maybe making peace would be worth the effort. No further testing of warhead nor missiles is worth providing them both access to the world and some bribery (heavy fuel oil.) They do keep treaty obligations but also are careful to exploit any loop holes or fine print so one must be careful. Like we have anyone left in State that could handle such negotiations.
TenguPhule
@debbie:
Throwing a drowning man a life jacket laced with explosives is a time tested strategy.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud: Yup.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
I figure with trump in office, and Lindsey Graham whispering in his ear, our chances are: 1) war 2) China wins 3) some combination of 1&2
? ?? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ? ?
@TenguPhule:
Preferably during. He’d be executed on the spot. Of course, then a lot of innocent people would then die, which would be awful.
TenguPhule
@Adam L Silverman:
Adam, look who’s doing the shopping. We’ll be lucky if we still have all of our fingers and toes left at the end of this.
Corner Stone
@joel hanes: Oh, come on.
TenguPhule
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
You know what would be something even stupider Trump could do at this point?
Pick a fight with Iran at the same time.
Jeffro
@debbie: the better to manipulate him, eventually humiliate him, or just buy time to make more weapons ?
Or as someone said up thread just the spectacle of an American president meeting with the North Korean leader as an equal is an achievement in itself and an incentive for them to keep going
Starfish
@debbie: Ambassador Dennis Rodman
TenguPhule
@GOVCHRIS1988:
You are unduly optimistic that he’d ever leave alive.
If they don’t kill him at the meeting, they’ll take him hostage.
mad citizen
I have a work friend who came here from Korea when he was 17, about 30 years ago. He told me during the Olympics that a S Korean professor he knew predicted this path–North Korea would make a lot of noise leading up to the Olympics, stay quiet during the Games, and then be ready to talk. It sounds like you guys are right, treat him like an equal, etc. I say normalize as much as possible and swarm the north with K Pop. Eventually the regime will collapse. I’m not sure what’s taking so long with China to turn. Russia seems like a lost cause.
? ?? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ? ?
@TenguPhule:
Do you seriously think they’d do that?
Adam L Silverman
@Yutsano: My guess is that Kim and his folks have been observing how the President negotiates, which is badly. And that they can get him tied up into knots, so that when things fall apart he’ll be left holding the blame. Leave Kim’s overdeveloped sense of grandiosity aside, North Koreans are still Koreans. They are high context communicators. They are an honor/shame society. Then remember who the president is right now: a diplomatic incident waiting to happen.
TenguPhule
@Baud:
No, North Korea has better healthcare then we do. //
GOVCHRIS1988
@Mustang Bobby: Richard Nixon, while paranoid and racist, was very adept with policy, foreign and domestic, At least he knew what the fuck he was doing. This is Trump were talking about here. He may watch the documentary on Nixon going to China, but he has the inability of recreating it with North Korea.
Brachiator
This is a damned good point. Conservatives will still sell this as a Trump victory.
TenguPhule
@? ?? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ? ?:
Yes. If Trump is stupid enough to enter North Korea, he’s never leaving. His value as a hostage or an example is simply too tempting to pass up for them.
SiubhanDuinne
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
For that matter, so has Jethrene.
Jeffro
@Adam L Silverman: yeah, true…
? ?? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ? ?
@TenguPhule:
That could be the best thing that could come out of this mess.
Jeffro
@Adam L Silverman: … and one desperate for what he perceives as a win
CarolPW
@Cermet: State has them, but they have all been sent to the FOIA basement so are not available.
Adam L Silverman
@Corner Stone: The devil, as always, will be in the details. Kim will have to agree to allow the IAEA inspectors in and cooperate with the inspection regime that will be put in place. I doubt he will. But things have been pushed back at least another 60 days. So take the immediate gift of time and go from there.
mike in dc
@TenguPhule: That would be a terrible move by them. 30 nukes later though, they wouldn’t be around to regret it.
TenguPhule
@? ?? Goku (aka Amerikan Baka) ? ?: No, because then we’d have to deal with Pence and Ryan.
mad citizen
Just to pile on to “Trump is a bad negotiator” and his ability to keep a poker face–I was listening to the Siruis POTUS channel around 5 eastern, and the WH pool reporter said Trump poked his head in the briefing room to tell them that South Korea was going to make a major annoucement shortly. The host, who was in the white house press during W and Obama said “That never happens!”
?BillinGlendaleCA
@SiubhanDuinne: The Possum Queen is merely a mouthpiece, not a Trump.
Adam L Silverman
@Cheryl Rofer: Or the President offends Kim and the North Koreans?
TenguPhule
@mike in dc:
There is no way Pence or Ryan is going to nuke NK on Trump’s behalf and risk the end of the world.
Cheryl Rofer
@Baud: With this move, it’s clear that Kim is a whole lot smarter.
tobie
Is it too soon to speculate that Vlad had a hand in arranging this meeting? Today feels like that day during the campaign when intelligence chiefs announced Russia was interfering in the election and then the Access Hollywood tape dropped that completely grabbed the attention of the press. For the past two weeks, the wheels have been coming off the Trump administration and suddenly this story of an unprecedented summit with the North Korea breaks. The fact that no one in the administration seems to have known about these negotiations suggests that this just fell into Trump’s lap via the South Koreans. Who was North Korea secretly negotiating with all this time before extending this invitation? My money’s on Russia.
Adam L Silverman
@Cheryl Rofer: I am in violent agreement with this analysis.
Patricia Kayden
And to celebrate International Women’s Day, Mississippi enacts a repressive anti-choice bill. How nice. No gun-related legislation is allowed but let’s force women to give birth regardless of their needs and wishes.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Wow. On domestic policy, he’s Archie Bunker, on FP, a character from a tinpot dictator’s propaganda.
mike in dc
@TenguPhule: If they kill an American president, we will end their regime. Whether it takes weeks and months, or minutes and hours, depends on what NK does next. China isn’t going to have their back if they take 45 hostage or kill him.
WereBear
@TenguPhule: But we don’t want him back.
Cheryl Rofer
@TenguPhule: I know you like your cynicism chic, but this falls over into the dumb category.
Brachiator
@Adam L Silverman:
Trump is not an honor/shame kind of guy. This could end up being a situation in which one side, or both, is screwed over because they are operating on one set of cultural assumptions and do not understand that these are absolutely irrelevant to the other side.
Also, as I noted earlier, Trump always deflects blame or failure onto someone else. He is only about taking credit for what goes his way. He never accepts blame. Even if he blatantly lies about it.
Trump never fails. He can only be failed (in his own little mind).
ETA: Trump wants a May meeting with Kim because he has not been invited to Prince Harry’s wedding.
?BillinGlendaleCA
@Adam L Silverman: Violence will get you no where, young man.
Aleta
Announcements aren’t developments any more. It used to be true for the WH, but now no.
Calling their announcements ‘developments’ is like believing someone who has announced 100 times in the last year that they’re going to stop drinking, but so far has never taken one step past the liquor store or put down the drink for even half a day. (Those would count as effort. The WH makes no effort.)
Something has to happen that’s in line with what the announcement said. Then it’s a development. If something different happens, that’s a development too. Like P going to NK instead of T, and being thrown in jail for proselytizing his ideas about Mother.
Adam L Silverman
@Brachiator: No arguments from me. That was my point.
TenguPhule
@mike in dc:
For anyone other then Trump, this would be true.
If they take Trump alive, they’ll get everything from him. They won’t even have to torture him much for it.
And we won’t nuke them for it. At best we could write him off, but I sincerely doubt a single Republican would raise a finger to rescue or avenge him.
Cheryl Rofer
@Adam L Silverman: That’s an interesting thought. Although I think that Kim and company are willing to put up with a lot. They can mock him after he leaves.
Adam L Silverman
@?BillinGlendaleCA: Actually it got me two masters degrees, a joint PhD, a bunch of publications, and two related, but distinct careers. Pretty much everything in my personal and professional life is the result of violence getting me somewhere.
If humanity ever gets serious about peace, I’m gonna be saying: “want fries with that?” a lot!//
Major Major Major Major
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: It’s kind of amazing how much he fulfills the stereotype of a below-average American.
Cheryl Rofer
@tobie: I’ve been wondering if Russia had a part in this.
GregB
@TenguPhule:
Pence fully expects to ascend tonHeaven on wings of angels.
Apocalyptc fulfillment seems to be in his wheel house.
TenguPhule
@Cheryl Rofer: But you still believe the possibility that Trump is not a traitor?
Aleta
@Baud: Has the clock changed?
Jeffro
@Brachiator: he most certainly is a shame kind of guy
TenguPhule
@GregB: I think they’d try a conventional response. And botch it badly.
SiubhanDuinne
@?BillinGlendaleCA:
I know that. Trump family wasn’t specified; Trump administration was.
hellslittlestangel
Kim: Let’s discuss disarmament.
Trump: OK. Hey, did you know I beat the shit out of Crooked Hillary Clinton?
Kim: We need the lifting of sanctions.
Trump: Uh-huh Could you see the way to lending my son-in-law a billion or so?
Cheryl Rofer
@TenguPhule: When did you stop beating your spouse?
Mary G
This is a great idea. Kim can throw Twitler a big parade with all the missiles and troops and things, and Twitler will take it as an honor demonstrating how seriously they respect him. Meanwhile our armed forces can continue to do their usual useful work. Win-win!
Adam L Silverman
@Cheryl Rofer: There is going to need to be a ton of focus on the minutiae of this. Every little detail is going to be important. You know as well as I do that high context communicators don’t negotiate directly. The principals meetings are all ceremonial – to kick things off and to bring them to a conclusion in announcing the agreement. The President is not going to like this dynamic.
Brachiator
@Adam L Silverman:
I don’t know. You explain complex topics with ease, and clearly have synthesized a ton of learning. This works a lot of places.
Origuy
@TenguPhule:
What’s “everything”? He doesn’t pay attention to the intelligence briefings. They can get everything he knows by watching Fox and Friends.
Major Major Major Major
@Adam L Silverman:
The president is not going to be aware of this dynamic.
TenguPhule
@Adam L Silverman:
Yeah, that’s not gonna end well.
Adam L Silverman
@Brachiator: I think you missed my point. All of my professional work, both when I thought I was going to be a research and teaching academic, and when I became a practitioner (operator) for the military, has focused on violence of one type or another. Understanding it, explaining it, countering it, preventing it, etc.
But I do appreciate the kind words.
Adam L Silverman
@Major Major Major Major: Which means we will need more popcorn!
ALEXA!!!!!!!
hellslittlestangel
@TenguPhule: If they take Trump alive, they’ll get everything from him. They won’t even have to torture him much for it.
“OK, American dog. How exactly does one grab ’em by the pussy?”
lamh36
@Cheryl Rofer:
SMH….and already… some media (Tweety’s round table) using terms like “progress” on this agrees to meet w/Korea talk…smh
Apparently, they want this to happen at the end of May…smh… Damnit…if/when this blows up in his face, this better NOT affect my Australia trip (May 19-May 31)…muthaphuck!
FUQ this shit…nothing Chump does can ever get the MSM folks to not wag their tails in excitment…smh.
I am seriously tired of hearing anything else bout Chump and his administration…just FUQN tired. Just tired of it entirely…so I’m gonna try my best to completely ignore it all…focus on things I can change locally and how best to contribute nationally…otherwise, call me when Chump’s term is cut short by either Mueller or some other circumstances…until then…FUQ the entire lot of em…
I’m off to live my best life.
Anyhoo… The final half of my sign-on bonus came in early!!!
Time for some light reading???
JR
I’m just going to hope for the best. Good news is hard to find these days.
Major Major Major Major
@Adam L Silverman: Aren’t nuclear missiles too hot to make popcorn with?
TenguPhule
@Adam L Silverman:
She is chuckling evilly while plotting your demise with butter flavored oil.
ruemara
@debbie: Because we’ve lost a lot of credibility with him in charge and can always lose even more. He will starve us, poison us, bankrupt us and leave us susceptible to disease. He hands out our secrets and has emptied the halls of our institutions. He’s the ideal candidate for anyone who hates America.
WaterGirl
@ruemara: And people worried that Obama might be the AntiChrist.
Adam L Silverman
@TenguPhule:
tobie
@Cheryl Rofer: It’s the theatricality of this announcement that makes me most suspect Russia’s hand. Trump’s people couldn’t organize a piss-up in a brewery. Heaven help us when his administration actually gets to the negotiating table.
Adam L Silverman
@lamh36: Pack the SPF 50,000 in case of nuclear attack.
Jamey
This is not Nixon goes to China; this is Sideshow Bob goes to rake on ground.
Adam L Silverman
@Major Major Major Major: As long as you wear your eye protection you’re fine.
Major Major Major Major
@Jamey: One of the most audaciously funny gags in television history!
Mike J
@Adam L Silverman:
Trump has not held a single state dinner.
The Dangerman
@TenguPhule:
Got it at 1; the NK problem has vexed Presidents for decades. The chance of Trump – the one that thinks trade wars are a good thing and easy to “win” – being the one to un-vex it is zero. Unless the NK leader wants to trade phone numbers of porn stars with Trump, this is going nowhere fast.
hellslittlestangel
@tobie: I wonder if Putin will lend Kim some of his special chefs to help in preparing Trump’s dinner.
tobie
@JR: I think we should ask the kids from Parkland, FL to organize the Dem response. They’re really good at this whole media-strategy-thingee. Think of them. They’re a great ray of hope.
Cheryl Rofer
@Adam L Silverman:
You are thinking about how we used to do diplomacy. All bad deals, the worst! Trump will make a great deal, a beautiful deal!
I agree with you, on Earth 1. (This is Earth 2, right? I can never get that straight.) But I’ve been thinking that kind of thing through, and it isn’t going to happen that way.
We no longer have the people in the State Department to do the protocol details, nor the details of any agreement. For an agreement, Commerce, Treasury, and Energy will also be needed, and probably others I’m not thinking of at the moment. There is nobody to distribute the tasks, or to decide what those tasks should be.
I think you provided the answer to that.
Trump’s fantasy is that he and Kim will sit down, man to man, and work things out. Trump will (as he has suggested others do in other negotiations) jab his finger into Kim’s chest and scream “Fuck you” to start the negotiations off. No interpreters or other helpers will be necessary, because Real Men™ understand each other.
Adam L Silverman
@Mike J: The 4th Geneva Convention prohibits serving Big Macs, Quarter Pounders with Cheese Filet-o-Fish, Original Recipe and/or Extra Tasty Crispy, fries, and fried apple pies for dinner. As a result, the US will not host any state dinners for the foreseeable future.
tobie
@hellslittlestangel: He’s such a dope that they don’t need to administer any agent to dull his wit. He has none.
Dave
@TenguPhule: Dude other than the crazy pantsuits (woman’s day) of this what would they get? He doesn’t actually have much rattling around in his head. Seriously there are a great many bad many of them even exceptionally stupid outcomes of this. No need to go with this one.
TenguPhule
@Cheryl Rofer:
And how does this scenario not end with Trump dead or imprisoned?
Timurid
This is the essence of a no win situation. Every possible outcome is bad. In ascending order of dreadfulness:
1. The actual talks end in a stalemate, but North Korea still wins by appearing as an equal of the US on the world stage.
2. Trump makes big concessions to Kim. An emboldened North Korea immediately starts stirring the shit, fishing for more handouts.
3. Kim makes big concessions to Trump, who gets a literal “Get Out Of Jail” card. The Village, Republican pols and even a few centrist Democrats will close ranks behind him and Mueller can start looking for his shinebox.
4. Trump loses it and provokes Kim into doing something irrevocable.
Adam L Silverman
@Cheryl Rofer: Earth 3 – home of the Crime Syndicate of America. Or the anti-matter universe of Qward.
hellslittlestangel
@tobie: I was thinking more stop his heart than dull his wit.
Dave
@Adam L Silverman: And let’s be honest all that careful work and thought will be thrown completely out the window as soon as the event occurs. The President not only won’t like but is constitutionally incapable of adhering to that sort of program.
TenguPhule
@Dave:
Russia got Israeli intelligence from him just by asking and probably a complete list of US assets in Russia.
Despite his ignoring the written daily briefs, they’re still telling him verbally a lot of sensitive information.
I think you might be surprised what Trump could remember when properly motivated..
hellslittlestangel
@Cheryl Rofer: Trump might scream “fuck you” at Kim over the phone. But face to face? He’ll be too strained trying to control his bladder to raise his voice.
joel hanes
@Cermet:
Freezing their weapons in-exchange for lifting sanctions and maybe making peace would be worth the effort.
We could call it the “Framework”, and seal some of their nuclear facilities, and install inspection cameras to monitor the seals.
… and I feel
Like I’ve been here before
TenguPhule
@Adam L Silverman: Beer flavored popcorn?
hellslittlestangel
@Timurid:
5. Kim agrees to let him build Trump Hotel Pyongyang. To seal the deal, Kim gifts him a beautiful little statuette that he can place on his desk in the Oval Office, right next to the phone.
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
Kim Jung Un just became president.
joel hanes
@Adam L Silverman:
The President is not going to like this dynamic.
The President may not even be able to perceive this dynamic;
he certainly won’t understand it if he does.
Mary G
@lamh36: It’s the FTFNYT, so click at your peril, but I am so excited for this:
Adam L Silverman
@Cheryl Rofer: I think this is germane. From here:
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/how-trump-learned-to-be-a-predator
Adam L Silverman
@TenguPhule: Not that unconventional.
Lapassionara
@Mary G: wooh!
trnc
@debbie:
Or maybe he saw that several countries are bragging about how they played Kushner, etc for suckers and thought, “How do I get a piece of the action?”
Cheryl Rofer
@Adam L Silverman: I was thinking today about this dynamic. He’s doing it to all of us.
1. TARIFFS ON ALL STEEL AND ALUMINUM, NO EXCEPTIONS
2. General confusion among staff and agencies.
3. No tariffs on Canada and Mexico, everyone else negotiable.
(Or I think the result is something like that. My head is ringing from today.) Number 3 would be disturbing and unacceptable, but it’s better than number 1.
Likewise,
1. NUKE NORTH KOREA! KILL THEM ALL!
2. Fear in the country, confusion among staff and agencies.
3. That nice Mr. Kim invited me to a meeting.
Once again, an unacceptable result that is tolerable only because it is less worse than number 1.
And so Donald Trump wears us all down. Oh, and did I mention that his friends get to play the stock market with every upset?
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Cheryl Rofer
Uh-oh
Adam L Silverman
@Cheryl Rofer: Under US Federal law he can’t place a tariff on Canadian steel. Federal law makes Canadian, British, and Australian steel domestic for national security reasons. So he can say he’s going to put a tariff on all three all he wants, it is illegal and can’t go into effect.
That’s how dumb these guys are. They couldn’t even review the US code to see if what they were doing is legal.
Adam L Silverman
@Cheryl Rofer: By tomorrow it will be more like a notion or a suggestion.
Cheryl Rofer
@Adam L Silverman: I think Trump did that all by his lonesome. Is the US code something that NSA does?//
lamh36
@Mary G:
Oooh…if Netflix, makes this happen…it’d be a BIGGGGG win for them and maybe the country!!!
And Chump would HATE IT!!!
Cheryl Rofer
@Adam L Silverman: Well, North Korea does things in writing. If this wasn’t in writing, then it’s the first move in playing him. A functioning State Department would have told him (maybe they did, and he didn’t listen) that replying to an oral message is very weak. But I think Big Don really wants the meeting.
trnc
@Mary G: If DT really only ran for pres to gin up his tv brand, and the Obamas wind up with a global tv presence while DT’s entire brand goes south, someone better start lining the oval office with plastic.
MJS
Let’s see if Trump can keep from insulting KJU for the next two months. I bet he can’t, at least not if he has one of his campaign rallies coming up. He loves the response he gets from his idiots when he calls him “Little Rocket Man”. He won’t be able to resist.
geg6
@Corner Stone:
That’s what I think, too. They know he’s an idiot, that Atillerson is an idiot and that the best and brightest on NK are purged or left State in disgust. They can roll him and they know it.
Baud
I wonder if Kim will sign the NDA.
JPL
@Adam L Silverman: It’s apparent that SK will pacify him, because they view him as the real threat. Is it possible that Trump is trying to change the subject.
Mary G
I think they are going to do it somewhere, because the article also says:
So I presume there is a bidding war going on. It says the Obamas are particularly close to people that work at Netflix, and I am pretty sure they have the most subscribers, so I imagine they will end up there. But to see Barack and Michelle talking about anything again, or just reading a phone book, would be so good for my heart.
And, yes, Twitler would pitch the hissy fit to end all hissy fits and the whole White House will leak it, and we will just laugh.
Baud
@Cheryl Rofer: Are we 100% sure it wasn’t some radio shock jock?
JMG
Any other American President, even Buchanan, you’d say, hey, maybe this will work out. But not this one.
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
Isn’t there a law preventing US presidents from meeting dictators during their last year in office?
Baud
@JMG: Maybe Kim will have mercy on us.
JPL
@Baud: It could have been this guy..
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
Mary G
@lamh36: @trnc: I know! Remember Twitler’s real passion for running was to lose, start “Trump TV,” rant and rave half an hour Mon-Thurs about “Crooked Hillary” and watch the money roll in.
I think the Obamas know streaming is the future, and are actually going to do it, because the article also says:
I read this between the lines as a bidding war going on, but the article talks about specific people at Netflix the Obamas already know and like, and Netflix has the most eyeballs available, at a lower price point, so I think they will win.
And Twitler will indeed throw the hissy fit to end all hissy fits and we will all be vastly entertained. The end. I hope.
lamh36
Baud
OT. The lawyers win one.
Vox
Baud
@JPL: What is this? 2006?
lamh36
Lindsey Graham out with a statement…the final paragraph warning NK not to “play” the President…smh…talk about a ringing endorsements of Chump’s diplomatic skills…smh
Baud
@lamh36: I’ll take those odds.
Amir Khalid
@Adam L Silverman:
I don’t know if this is a significant difference, but I think that what these guys actually believe is that the law suggests, but they decide; that if they choose to, they get to overrule the law. I remember a story from last year, where Trump told a meeting of Native American tribal leaders to feel free to disregard Federal law and extract mineral resources from tribal lands as they saw fit, because he was in charge now.
JPL
@Baud: lol It’s what happens when you live in trumpland.
Jeffro
@Cheryl Rofer: hey so he jumped on it at the first opportunity in order to try and change the conversation what a surprise
Mary G
I was at the doctor most of the day, and know this has probably already been covered in a thread I missed, but it made me laugh, so I’m posting it again for anyone else who missed it:
What a maroon.
Another Scott
@Timurid: I think you’re looking too many steps ahead.
As Adam says, delaying tests is a good thing. Even if there isn’t an immediately sensible deal at the end of the delay.
I really don’t care, myself, if Kim puffs himself up as an equal of the USA and Donnie meets with him and shakes his hand. Kim’s family has been telling the DPRK that they are great and powerful and an equal of anyone for decades. It’s pretty much the state religion.
Kim can continue to say how great and powerful he is, and show pictures of Donnie with him if it happens, but it’s not going to reduce the DPRK’s pariah status without them actually implementing different policies. Nuclear inspections, stopping murdering and kidnapping Korean nationals in other countries, demonstrating that they can obey trade rules, human rights for the DPRK people, etc., etc.
Honestly, I expect little to come from this proposed meeting. Remember how he was going to bend Mexico to his will and everything was going to be “great”… :-/ Instead, it’s just a continuing stalemate about trade and NAFTA.
The Korean War should have ended decades ago. The longer the official conflict exists, the higher the price for actually ending it. I don’t care who gets the credit if something good happens, myself.
My $0.02.
Cheers,
Scott.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
(I know I’m kind of arguing with a fictional character, but…) I don’t think he knows what SALT is, and if the meeting takes place, trump will leave the equivalent of a selfie, trumpet it as if it’s the greatest triumph of diplomatic history, and champagne corks will be popping all through the corridors of government buildings in Beijing, where the South Koreans will increasingly turn, and North Korea’s nuke program will be largely unaffected
ETA: another POV, from somebody who probably knows more than I do
where would/does Putin fit into this equation? America distracted while he increases his influence in the Balkans and central Europe?
Lizzy L
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: I’m inclined to agree with Chris Hayes; it won’t happen.
David ??Merry Christmas?? Koch
Amir Khalid
@lamh36:
And pigs might fly. To put it mildly, that is not the most plausible hypothetical I have ever heard.
Dorothy A. Winsor (formerly Iowa Old Lady)
@Mary G: How are you doing, Mary? I hope the day long doc visit was mostly routine.
Citizen_X
@Cheryl Rofer: You know, in a way, North Korea has been playing this same game on a much bigger stage for decades. Of course, when they play, they are willing to back it up for real, occasionally sinking South Korean ships, shelling their troops, attacking US troops, etc.
I have a feeling Kim and Co. are all cracking their knuckles, coming up with all kind of ways that they can game Trump. Who, as people have pointed out, would be pretty much going at the problem without knowledgable backup. They would have him completely outgunned.
Elizabelle
Watching High Noon. We’re at 11:58.
Always an apropos movie, but especially now.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: I meant Baltic states, but I guess “Balkans” might work, too, also….
hellslittlestangel
@lamh36: Don’t fuck with military veteran Lindsay Graham, who can field-strip a pair of tasseled loafers in 45 seconds.
Fair Economist
@TenguPhule:
Even the North Koreans must realize how useless Trump would be as a hostage. The vast majority of the country would be delighted to leave him there.
germy
Major Major Major Major
@Elizabelle: ah, a classic.
I feel like the doomsday clock loses a lot of its effect when it’s just constantly almost midnight, though. They should recalibrate it. “We’re moving the clock ahead three hours!” or whatever is much more dramatic.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Sounds like the State and Defense Departments were pretty much out of the loop, which I’m sure is fine
Elizabelle
@Major Major Major Major: The train has arrived. The bad ones are in the town square.
Hadleyville. Coward’s Creek.
B.B.A.
Trump will agree to recognize DPRK as the sole legitimate government of the entire Korean peninsula, in exchange for rebranding the Ryugyong Hotel as the Trump International Hotel Pyongyang.
Mary G
@Dorothy A. Winsor (formerly Iowa Old Lady): Oh yeah, no biggie. Every so often I have to make the rounds of the specialists who treat me. Today was particularly good, I went to the dermatologist because a mole had turned crusty. Growing up at the beach means skin cancer quite often, because we all used baby oil in my day rather than something with SPF.
Turns out after looking at it with the magnifying glass he is 99% certain it is not a melanoma, he just measured it for the chart and we will watch it. I have developed something call Sjogren’s Syndrome which comes with RA and lupus and dries up tears, saliva, etc.; pretty much everything that should be moist goes dry. It makes moles crusty too. Fortunately it is in a place where no one can see it in public, so I was relieved.
ETA: Sorry, started babbling and forgot to mention that I hope you and Mr. DAW aren’t stressing too much waiting for his test.
Major Major Major Major
@Elizabelle:
Movie or news? ??
Adam L Silverman
@Cheryl Rofer: Yep.
Major Major Major Major
@B.B.A.: oh that’s actually a cool building.
Adam L Silverman
@Amir Khalid: They’re more like guidelines really.
tobie
@Adam L Silverman:
Thanks for this. I’ve been wondering how the US can impose retaliatory tariffs on a nation like Canada that doesn’t impose import duties on US goods because the US, Canada and Mexico are in a free trade zone. Now I learn the provision for free trade on steel extends to Australia and the UK. Whoo boy. These executive orders are not worth the paper they are printed on.
SiubhanDuinne
@Brachiator:
Trump is entirely capable of insisting on May 18-19 for his meeting with Kim. He’d be gleeful to take world attention away from the royal wedding (and the likely presence of the Obamas) and force the despisèd media to have to split their news coverage between Windsor and Pyongyang.
B.B.A.
@Major Major Major Major: Looks cool on the outside. I think the inside is just bare concrete. Apparently it’s so shoddily built that it’s unlikely to ever open – which means it’ll fit just fine into the Trump portfolio.
Corner Stone
@hellslittlestangel:
His rentboy will high polish a pair of loafers faster than you can say Yeah-uh.
Adam L Silverman
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: The Russians have maintained formal relations with the DPRK. Lavrov made the statement in December 2017 that they would not break those relations. This was a few weeks after Russia finished installing upgraded high speed Internet access for the Kim government.
Corner Stone
@Adam L Silverman:
It’s a ruse, not a gift.
Adam L Silverman
@hellslittlestangel: Blind folded!
hilts
@lamh36:
Erin Burnett proves once again that she’s dumber than a horse’s ass.
MomSense
Well this is a clever excuse for trump to travel to a non extradition treaty country.
Adam L Silverman
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: The Interagency process appears to have completely broken down on this.
If LTG McMaster didn’t read Secretary Mattis in on this before it happened, he’s playing with fire. He should have also read Secretary Tillerson on as well, so that neither were surprised, but Secretary Mattis has most of the control over LTG McMaster’s fate.
trollhattan
@Citizen_X:
Think Trump went all apeshit crazy with the French military parade, wait ’til he gets his own arirang!
“Greatest thing, ever. I want one in front of the White House!”
Adam L Silverman
@tobie: It’s actually in a separate part of the Federal code from the NAFTA stuff. But it’s in there.
Calouste
Wasn’t it reported a month or two back that there was an earthquake at the North Korean nuclear test side that collapsed a tunnel and killed 200 of their staff? Kim could do with buying time while that gets fixed.
Corner Stone
@hilts: You can take the girl out of CNBC but you can’t take the CNBC out of the girl.
Another Scott
@Calouste: (Dunno about the numbers, but) Yup. It’s kinda hard to have nuclear tests when you’ve blown up your test site.
Of course, Kim could do something else to gain attention – if he wants. And I don’t doubt that he’s working on having the capability to do more testing if he thinks he needs it…
Cheers,
Scott.
Adam L Silverman
@Calouste: @Another Scott: We covered this here on the front page!
vhh
@Brachiator: Yes, one can explain the menu choices very articulately.
Chet Murthy
@TenguPhule:
TP, for the sake of our democracy, you better -pray- that nothing you’re fantasizing about happens. And it won’t, so rest easy. Let me explain: If something happened to our head of state while on an international trip, if that something were fomented by a state to which he’d been invited, EVERY DEMOCRAT would line up with every GrOPer to demand retaliation. -I- would do the same. I want Putinfelcher behind bars for the rest of his long, long natural life.
But he’s ours to prosecute and ours to run out of office. This is our democracy, our Republic, and not somebody else’s to run for us.
Dude, get a grip.
celticdragonchick
@Adam L Silverman:
This this this.
celticdragonchick
@Chet Murthy:
Exactly.
If something did happen to POTUS over in Korea….I would be screaming for retaliation also. I loathe the man…but as you said, he is ours to prosecute. Nobody else gets to touch him or violate the integrity of the office. No way in hell would we want that precedent set.